Intel Shares Fall on Report Nvidia Halts Production Test

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode: Intel Shares Fall on Report Nvidia Halts Production Test
Date: December 24, 2025
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Christina Aquino (sitting in for Scarlet Fu)
Notable Guests: Kim Farrest (Bouquet Capital Partners), Erik Larson (Bloomberg News), Seema Shah (Sensor Tower), Liz Hart (Newmark)

---

Overview

In this episode of the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, the team delivers deep analysis on several breaking business news stories. Starting with the impact of Nvidia halting a production test with Intel, they discuss broader implications for AI chips, evolving questions around AI ROI, and the future direction of tech markets. The show also covers a significant legal decision impacting H1B visa fees, looming tech and healthcare labor issues, retail and streaming trends during the holiday season, and the state of U.S. commercial real estate.

---

Key Segments & Discussion Highlights

1. Intel, Nvidia, and the Evolution of AI Chips

[02:32–08:07]
Guest: Kim Farrest, Founder & CIO, Bouquet Capital Partners

• Intel’s Setback and Industry Impact:

  • Intel shares dropped following a report that Nvidia halted a test using Intel’s advanced chip production process.
  • Kim Farrest, whose firm is an Intel investor, says, “I'm not terribly worried about it...I believe that this is probably a good thing ultimately as they probably gain intel probably gain a lot of knowledge about what's right and what's wrong with the process.” ([03:04])
  • Farrest notes Nvidia’s dominance isn’t insurmountable and competition in chipmaking is healthy for the sector.

• Broader AI Market Competition:

  • The AI hardware landscape is diversifying; new entrants challenge Nvidia’s perceived monopoly.
  • “The very best thing that capitalism does is create a competitive environment…Even last year at this time because 2024 was the year of Nvidia, everybody thought it was game over…And yet here we are looking at a whole slew of not only new competition for the training kind of chips, but there's...other uses for it. And guess what? We're going to need other chips.” – Kim Farrest ([04:31])

• Evolving Questions on AI Investment:

  • Farrest stresses investors need to focus on practical returns:
    “I came from software and the reason why I sit before you is because I worked at AI companies that weren't asking the question, how much does my solution cost and what problem am I solving and what's the cost of that problem?” ([05:49])
  • She warns the cost to train AI and its ROI is unclear; the “bubble” risk remains.

• On AI Timelines:

  • “It's going to take way longer than anybody thinks – way longer.” – Kim Farrest ([08:07])

---

2. Legal News: H1B Visa Fee Ruling’s Broad Implications

[11:51–17:33]
Guest: Erik Larson, U.S. Legal Reporter, Bloomberg News

• Background on Ruling:

  • A federal judge upheld a $100,000 Trump-era fee for H1B visa applications.
  • “The president put this fee in place, sort of surprised everyone with it…targeting immigration, saying that individuals who are using these particular visas were taking jobs from skilled American workers who could do those jobs but get paid more, essentially.” – Erik Larson ([12:24])

• Tech & Healthcare Sector Reaction:

  • Big corporations have not yet sued, possibly waiting for outcomes of pending cases.
  • States (notably California) and unions have filed multiple lawsuits, especially over healthcare workforce impacts.
  • Larson: “There's just a huge shortage, especially when it comes to hospitals, nurses. And these tech companies say that this creates innovation...It's impossible to really say. Both sides are pushing pretty hard here.” ([14:07])

• Practical Fallout:

  • Ongoing litigation and potential confusion for employers and workers.
  • “For now, I mean, this ruling makes it pretty clear that this might be the law of the land for a while.” ([15:26])
  • Shortages expected in hospitals and for specialized tech roles if fees stay.

---

3. Holiday Retail Trends & Streaming Industry M&A

[21:25–30:52]
Guest: Seema Shah, VP Research & Insights, Sensor Tower

Retail & App Market Observations

• Sluggish Consumer Traffic:
  • “...Figures are slower than they were in the prior years...sort of a skew to value...team moves of the world, there's a sort of seen a resurgence, but also like wholesale and other value players...” – Seema Shah ([21:41])
  • Ad spend and discretionary spending are both down, indicating softer retail performance.

Streaming M&A: Warner Bros Discovery Bidding War

• Major Competitors:

  • Netflix and Paramount (with Skydance) are in the race to acquire Warner Bros Discovery.

• Potential Impact of Mergers:

  • “Netflix is the leader by far. Nearly 50% of all monthly active users globally are on Netflix. For Paramount…it’s only 4%, with HBO around 10%.”
    • Netflix + Warner Bros: would further cement Netflix’s dominance
    • Paramount + Warner Bros: would elevate Paramount to Disney/Amazon Prime levels.
  • “For Netflix, [the deal] gives them the opportunity to maybe jumpstart their subscriber growth...HBO is really the fastest growing international streamer that we follow.” – Seema Shah ([23:53])

• Regulatory Landscape:

  • Concern over monopoly if Netflix prevails; less so for Paramount.
  • “...I think that it’ll be viewed potentially as uncompetitive just because if other streamers also start consolidating, there’s fewer, fewer options for consumers…” – Seema Shah ([26:44])

• Industry Consolidation Outlook:

  • Disney’s Hulu buyout cited as another example.
  • Competition extends beyond streamers: “They're basically competing with anything else. That takes time...short form video and social media…” ([28:06])

• Future Risks & Trends:

  • Ad-supported free streaming (FAST) services, especially those with live sports, are gaining ground among younger, budget-conscious audiences.
  • Paramount may struggle if it fails to win Warner Bros: “They are by far one of the smallest…It's going to be very hard for them…unless they really bump up their content and have, you know, a show that's in the zeitgeist.” ([30:16])

---

4. State of U.S. Commercial Real Estate

[34:24–40:15]
Guest: Liz Hart, President of Leasing (North America), Newmark

• Market Rebound & Segmented Growth:

  • “2025 was really the pivot year. It was the year that we started to have positive absorption across the country halfway through the year. And we're heading into 2026 on quite the optimistic note.” – Liz Hart ([35:03])
  • Trophy office spaces in NYC are highly in demand, with double the demand over supply.
  • Class A office markets expected to see rent increases, while lower-end markets struggle.

• Retail & Wellness Trends:

  • “Retail is looking pretty strong. Again, it's a story of outperformance at the top of the market…Wellness is really expected to be a standout in 2026.” ([36:13])

• Industrial Sector Strength:

  • New construction and intermodal cities like Dallas and Phoenix are thriving, thanks to reshoring and near-shoring trends.

• Challenges:

  • Long-vacant retail spaces face pressure to reinvent: “If your space has been on the market for a couple of years, you really have to look at repositioning it…” ([37:12])

• San Francisco Comeback:

  • “The demand is back at pre pandemic levels, mostly driven by the technology industry…certainly led by the AI companies. In San Francisco, you have OpenAI Anthropic being two standouts there…” ([38:01])
  • 2026-27 expected to bring stabilization and new growth as old leases expire.

• Suburban Markets:

  • Some suburbs, especially those tied to job growth, are performing well.

• Outlook:

  • San Francisco remains Liz Hart’s “up-and-coming” city for 2026, with Dallas and Houston also showing continued momentum.

---

Memorable Quotes

• “What the very best thing that capitalism does is create a competitive environment. Even last year...everybody thought it was game over. There was no way for any company to be able to compete with [Nvidia]. And yet here we are looking at a whole slew of not only new competition for the training kind of chips, but we're broadening out...”
  — Kim Farrest ([04:31])

• “Sorry to tell people that it has to solve a problem less expensively than the problem itself. That's just it.”
  — Kim Farrest ([05:49])

• “I don't think we're asking that. The price of training these large language models is incredible. And I'm not sure that investors are really asking the questions that need to be asked, like who's going to pay for this and what's the return and all of those kind of good things.”
  — Kim Farrest ([05:49])

• “There's just a huge shortage, especially when it comes to hospitals, nurses. And these tech companies say that this creates innovation, having more diverse views from backgrounds coming in from around the world that are people who are deeply steeped in the tech sector. It's impossible to really say. Both sides are pushing pretty hard here.”
  — Erik Larson ([14:07])

• “If Netflix acquires Warner Brothers, it becomes even larger and more likely that people will not be able to get caught up with them…for Paramount, the addition of HBO is huge…It gives them access to tentpole content like the Game of Thrones, White Lotus. It puts them into the higher sphere of streamers…”
  — Seema Shah ([23:53])

• “Well, certainly in that part of the trophy market, we would expect it to be elevated in New York City and across the markets. But as you're kind of referencing, rents aren't going to be going up across every single sector at the trophy, definitely. And in the class A market…we'd expect rents to increase there, but it's not going to happen across every single part of the category. In the lower end, we're still struggling.”
  — Liz Hart ([35:41])

---

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive tour through current market turbulence and opportunity—covering key developments in semiconductor competition, the challenges facing AI business models, regulatory risks and labor supply in tech and healthcare, a rapidly changing media landscape, and hopeful signals in commercial real estate. The conversations are candid, grounded, and often peppered with direct challenges to consensus thinking, whether about the AI investment cycle, labor supply, or the allure and dangers of market consolidation.

Transcript

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

What is Actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Bailey Gifford Actual Investors Find out more@bailey.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Gifford.Com when you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. Chase Sapphire Reserved for Business is a painful card that elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits that can take your business to the next level. Sapphire Reserved for business offers 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, airport lounge access, and more. With over $2,500 in annual value, it's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn [e-mail] ReserveBusiness Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

So have you heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CBS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories Introducing the all.

[Chase Bank Representative]

New Adobe Acrobat studio now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click and do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn [e-mail] Dothatwith Acrobat Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with.

[Seema Shah]

The Bloomberg Business app.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

Christina Kino sitting in for Scarlet Fo. I'm Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Always love chatting with Kim Farrest, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Bouquet Partner. We love talking to him about markets, about technology, AI and maybe I'm going to run this one by Intel. The news on intel shares fell after a report said that Nvidia halted a test to use Intel's production process to make advanced chips. Kim, you mentioned in the notes that your firm is an investor in Intel. How do you view this news? Is it big news, game changer, don't worry about it kind of thing?

[Kim Farrest]

Oh, I think, you know, as a portfolio manager managing other people's money, you always worry about everything. But on this, I'm not terribly worried about it. It's a new process for Intel. They've been trying hard to compete against Taiwan Semi and I think this is a setback for sure. But maybe Nvidia really wasn't going to ever use Intel's processes. We have to think about that and it's good that they tried it against, you know, the, the absolute pinnacle of chips at this point, or at least the pinnacle of chip makers at this point. So I think that the CEO of Intel is some. Someone who actually learns and changes and I believe that this is probably a good thing ultimately as they probably gain intel probably gain a lot of knowledge about what's right and what's wrong with the process.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Well, very interesting. That seems like really the, the AI trade at this point, a lot of discussion around chips. Right. And the diversification of where these companies are going to be getting their chips. Nvidia no longer perhaps the only player in the game. But yeah, what does that tell you about where we are in the AI trade cycle? Is it a good thing that we are starting to see more producers stepping up and saying like, hey, we can make these chips too, if you want to take a look at our business.

[Kim Farrest]

I do actually. I think I'm a big fan of capitalism, which should be no.1, not a surprise to anyone. And what the very best thing that capitalism does is create a competitive environment. And even last year at this time, well, maybe especially last year at this time because 2024 was the year of Nvidia. I think everybody thought it was game over. There was no way for any company to be able to compete with them. And. And yet here we are looking at a whole slew of not only new competition for the training kind of chips, but there's. We're broadening out, we're understanding that I may not just be asking chat things, but there's other uses for it. And guess what? We're going to need other chips. So vendors are lining up to try to figure out how to best serve this market. Again, an advertisement for capitalism.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Kim has the discussion around AI. To what extent has it Evolved, if it has at all. It feels like now we got to ask some different questions, like maybe the return on some investment, like maybe what's it really going to do for productivity? Asking some harder questions. How do you think, where do you think we are in that evolution?

[Kim Farrest]

I think we're just beginning to scratch our head. And it's disappointing to me. I came from software and the reason why I sit before you is because I worked at AI companies that weren't asking the question, how much does my solution cost and what problem am I solving and what's the cost of that problem? Right. So how technology has to work. Sorry to tell people that it has to solve a problem less expensively than the problem itself. That's just it. And I don't think we're asking that. The price of training is these large language models is incredible. And I'm not sure that investors are really asking the questions that need to be asked, like who's going to pay for this and what's the return and all of those kind of good things. Will this cause a train wreck? Maybe. But I think it, again, I'm such an optimist, I think it would be a good thing because then would narrow down on how we can use this technology to actually get a benefit from it. Not just because it's cool, interesting, or whatever drives people to look at tech.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah. Well, give me your question of who's going to pay for it. That was definitely the question that markets were asking a few weeks ago, if you recall, when we did get a little bit of that bubble worry permeating the markets. Where do you stand on that? Is that actually a good worry for markets to have at this stage? And who do you think is going to be the winners and losers coming out of that?

[Kim Farrest]

Sure, I do. I think it's a great question. I think it's the only question an investor, not a technologist, an investor should ask is, you know, who benefits and where should I put my money? Yes, it is early days, but I'm looking at companies that are very much married to the large language model. Most of them are private and, you know, they're talking their own book over and over again. And I think that should serve as a warning to investors. So I think, I think the bubble thing still is out there, but ultimately I strongly believe that AI is productive when targeted correctly, when asking the right questions and when delivering solutions. But I hate to tell investors this, especially on Christmas, because I am an optimist. It's going to take way longer than anybody thinks way longer.

[Paul Sweeney]

Way longer. The good things usually are worth waiting for, they say as well. Kim Forest, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Kim Far, she's the founder and Chief Investment Officer, Bouquet Capital Partners is out there in Pittsburgh. One of my favorite towns. It's a great town, Pittsburgh. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

What is actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Baillie Gifford Actual Investors Find out [e-mail].

[Paul Sweeney]

Support for the show comes from public on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.

[Paul Sweeney]

Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool.

[Paul Sweeney]

Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI the Chase Inc. Business.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen. Designed for high spend and limitless cash back, Inc. Business Premier is a painful card with built in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses and help your business grow. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. From innovation and technology to expenses, Inc. Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn [e-mail] business card chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with.

[Seema Shah]

The Bloomberg Business app.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

Christina keynote sitting in for Scarlet Fu. I'm Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, streaming live on YouTube. Well, a federal judge said the Trump administration can move ahead with a $100,000 fee on new H1B visa applications, providing setback for US technology. Some more color there. We're joined by Erik Larson. He is a U.S. legal reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us live here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. I mean, there's like a handful of people in this building. Eric's one of them. Eric, what's what? Just give us the background of this $100,000 H1B visa thing.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Sure.

[Erik Larson]

So the president put this fee in place, sort of surprised everyone with it. One of his many rules that he put in place, sort of slowing immigration, targeting immigration, saying that individuals who are using these particular visas were taking jobs from skilled American workers who would could do those jobs but get paid more, essentially. So they accused these companies, these industries, of basically profiting from importing cheaper labor. And there are several lawsuits were filed and we've got our first ruling.

[Liz Hart]

Yeah.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Well, given the popularity of these visas, particularly in the tech sector area, recount for our audience kind of what's been the response from these companies involved and how do they envision moving forward with the labor supply?

[Erik Larson]

Well, I mean, it remains to be seen what will actually happen with with this $100,000 fee. This is one ruling. There's a couple of other big lawsuits out there where there haven't been rulings yet. So notably, none of those lawsuits are filed by the big corporations who Use these, these visas? Maybe. Perhaps they're waiting it out to see what happens with the lawsuits. But at any rate, there is another big lawsuit filed by Democratic led states, led by California's Attorney General. There's another big lawsuit, unions and a group of nurses. And we haven't gotten any rulings on those yet. So theoretically we could get a ruling that goes the other way. This could be one of the many cases that goes up to the Supreme Court eventually.

[Paul Sweeney]

What is the reality or what is the data show about the need for H1B visa workers? Is there a lack of high tech workers coming out of the US Is there in fact a need for these people?

[Erik Larson]

Well, it depends who you ask. Each of these lawsuits gave a slightly different perspective. The Chamber of Commerce lawsuit, which is the one we just had, the ruling on representing the ideas of businesses, the states are saying that this fee harms the states in the, in the capacity of hospitals needing H1B visa, employees, teacher, like universities, things like that. And they're saying that pretty much every part of American society somehow uses these visas. So it depends on who you ask. The government says you can find these skilled workers here in the US you're just going to have to pay them more. But that is not at all how these plaintiffs see it. They say that there's just a huge shortage, especially when it comes to hospitals, nurses. And these tech companies say that this creates innovation, having more diverse views from backgrounds coming in from around the world that are people who are deeply steeped in the tech sector. It's impossible to really say. Both sides are pushing pretty hard here.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Do we have a sense of what's been going on in the ground in terms of companies and workers involved in the process currently of trying to obtain an H1B? I imagine there's a lot of confusion and maybe delays in the process now.

[Erik Larson]

Yes, I would think so. I've spoken to immigration lawyers who say that this is a huge problem for them and their clients and expectations of people who thought they might be able to use this visa. But for now, I mean, this ruling makes it pretty clear that this might be the law of the land for a while. This was an Obama appointed judge who said that the President has this broad authority that Congress gave him in the Immigration and Nationality act gave the President this type of authority. When the President believes that someone is or a group of people are a threat to the economy, that that's in the Immigration and Nationality Act. So this Democratic appointed judge who's ruled against Trump on other things is saying he has this authority. And that's kind of not saying that every other judge will rule the same way in these other cases. But that is how these individuals are going to have to look at it, these companies in terms of planning for, for the future and as well as workers.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, I don't see this dispersing. I don't see this as a big issue for the big tech companies. They can afford it. They can whine, they can afford it. But you mentioned health care. And I'm thinking, I keep hearing and reading about nursing shortages and things like that. And I would think they try to fill some of that, those shortages with non US workers via the H1B visa situation. That could be a problem if you're a hospital. And now you're saying I got to pay more to get my nurses in from wherever I get them. That would be a problem, I would think.

[Erik Larson]

Absolutely. And that was a highlight of the case filed by the 19 or 20 Democratic attorneys general, most of them in the country said that this is a particular problem. And that's how they the states, one of the ways they say they have standing to sue, you know, that they have a right to sue is saying that the threat to the healthcare industry in particular makes it a public issue that the states have a responsibility to sue over, essentially saying that they need to keep the flow of these skilled healthcare workers coming in.

[Paul Sweeney]

Is that also for students as well? How do I get student visas are different, I guess.

[Erik Larson]

Yeah, that's a different issue because that's.

[Paul Sweeney]

Also been a challenge for universities, all the uncertainty about immigration. A lot of their international applicants are down significantly because those people are unsure about what the policy is going to be in the US and that's hurting the universities who depend upon them to some degree. Eric, thanks so much. Appreciate it. Erik Larson, US Legal reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Extra Star today. Eric, for coming in on Christmas Eve. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.

[Paul Sweeney]

Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Public Advisor, llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated.

[Paul Sweeney]

Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent Okta secures AI the.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Chase Inc. Business Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen. Designed for high spend and limitless cash back ink, Business Premier is a painful card with built in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses and help your business grow. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. From innovation and technology to everyday expenses, Inc. Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn [e-mail] businesscard Chase for Business Make More of what's Yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

So have you heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CBS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories.

[Chase Bank Representative]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with.

[Seema Shah]

The Bloomberg Business app.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

Let's check in with Seema Shah She's a vice president, research and insights at Sensor Tower. Sima, thanks so much for joining us here. What are you seeing out there in, I mean it's Christmas season here. What are you seeing out there in the marketplace?

[Seema Shah]

I would say like we're talking about retail. I will say that, you know, our figures are slower than they were in the prior years in terms of monthly active users and in terms of traffic we're seeing and some of the the mobile apps, it's definitely been a little bit slower. And we're also seeing a sort of a skew to value. So if you think of like the team moves of the world, there's a sort of seen a resurgence, but also like wholesale and other value players, that's what we're sort of seeing in the retail landscape. But I think from a broader step back, if we just look across categories in the U.S. i would say that there still is pressure on discretionary sort of expenditures. So based on how we look at the mobile app universe, if you look at like dating apps, subscriber revenue and interaction is down. Same with streaming as a whole. So that's kind of what we're seeing at like a 50,000 foot level.

[Paul Sweeney]

I mean net net. How is this season going to be in terms of the Christmas season and that just the holiday season? I mean there's lots of reports out there that the consumer stretched and all that type of stuff.

[Seema Shah]

Yeah, and our data sort of confirms that, both our mobile and our web data. And the other thing that we saw is when we looked at advertising spend in prior years versus this year, we can already see that in this fourth quarter there's been a slowdown in overall ad spend, which typically means that presumably the advertisers think that there'll be a pullback in spending. And we've sort of seen that slowdown across the metrics that we follow and that we sort of use to infer how people are spending. What our metrics don't take into account though would be inflation and anything to do specifically with price. So I think when we get the retail sales numbers and other sort of comp numbers, we should be cognizant to see how much of that was price versus traffic because from our end the traffic part seems to definitely be weaker.

[Paul Sweeney]

All right, seem I was thrown for a loop here because I know you in the context of talking about retail, but yes. So now, okay, so now you've brought your remit here and you can talk about, I guess some of these media deals out there. I'd love to get your thoughts on kind of what's happening in Warner Brothers Discovery?

[Seema Shah]

Yes, absolutely. So, as everybody knows, there's two competing bids. Netflix versus Paramount, Skydance. And from our perspective, the results of each merger, if they were passed, are very different. And what Warner Brothers brings to each group is very different. Right. Netflix is the leader by far. Nearly 50% of all monthly active users globally are on Netflix. For Paramount, on the other hand, it's only 4%, with HBO around 10%. So if Netflix acquires Warner Brothers, it becomes even larger and more likely that people will not be able to get caught up with them. For Paramount, the addition of HBO is huge. It jumps them up to the same level of active user penetration as Disney and Amazon Prime. It gives them access to tentpole content like the Game of Thrones, White Lotus. It puts them into the higher sphere of streamers in terms of content for Netflix, it gives them the opportunity to maybe jumpstart their subscriber growth. It's been pretty stagnant to down because they're so large, but HBO is really the fastest growing international streamer that we follow. So this would be an opportunity for Netflix to pick up those users potentially, but also to leverage its content creation, you know, behemoth that they can make local language content and apply that to HBO's content. So I think there's a lot of opportunity, but it just really depends on who, who ends up getting the deal or not, what it does for each player.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah, well, Sima, it sounds like we're nowhere close to finding out who ends.

[Seema Shah]

Up getting the deal.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

You know, Warner Brothers leadership, very clear they want to push their investors to go with Netflix here. But then Larry Ellison wading into this battle and personally guaranteeing some of that bid from Paramount. So where do you think these firms stand in terms of who's closer to be able to finally clinch the deal at the end of the day?

[Seema Shah]

Well, I think just generally because the Warner Brothers board is on board with Netflix, that definitely makes that seem like a more likely deal. However, and I think that if Paramount wants to get the deal, they have to continue to increase their bid. I know that they recently offered the same breakup fee as Netflix, but I think there might be some other fees that they would have to increase the value of that bid in order to make it worth their while. I think it also depends on the value of Discovery and which I have heard valuations from $1 to almost $4 per share for that portion of the business for the linear tv. So, yeah, and I think it really depends on how people view that because the Netflix bid does not include that.

[Paul Sweeney]

Sima, what do you think the regular regulators are going to say about this deal going forward?

[Seema Shah]

Yeah, so I mean, to be fair, look, Netflix is so large, if they acquired Warner Brothers and they had hbo, they would be by far the largest. But in the grand scheme of life, like HBO is only 10% of MAUs, Netflix is already almost 50%. So it does make it a little bit more difficult, I think, for the average streamer to try to catch up to them. But I don't think it's completely uncompetitive for, I mean, but I think that it'll be viewed potentially as uncompetitive just because if other streamers also start consolidating, there's fewer, fewer options for consumers and we're already seeing price increases for subscribe for subscriptions, both ad supported and non ad supported. So I think that will be a concern, you know, for regulatory purposes for Netflix, for Paramount, I don't really see an, you know, a real regulatory issue given that its size is very small. And even with hbo, it would just be on par with Disney plus and Amazon Prime. So it's seems like it would have less of an impact from a regulatory perspective.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

You make an interesting point about kind of how this could potentially change the streamer landscape. Right. And especially when it comes to consolidation. Where do you see that going? Which other streamers do you think might be primed for a similar deal like this?

[Seema Shah]

Well, you already saw Disney plus sort of buy out the rest of Hulu, so that is one form of consolidation. Right. They're all owned together. I'm not sure if the other streamers are part of some of these larger companies, so they're less likely to be acquired. But I do think that if we're thinking from a competitive standpoint, if you really want to understand this, you have to realize that the streamers are not just competing with themselves, they're basically competing with anything else. That takes time. And so we view that as like short form video and social media. So if you broaden the landscape to include those, neither deal is really anti competitive. Right. Because users have so many options on the ways to get content and the way that they view content. And I think short form video and streaming social, sorry, social media are very growing and you know, competitors that the streamers need to look for. So I, so on the consolidation question, I don't think that's necessarily going to be a roll up of the industry, but I, and I think from the anti competitive spark portion, we should really look at the broader space of what, how consumers spend their time.

[Liz Hart]

Yeah.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Well, speaking of the broader space then, what's your outlook for 2026? How do you think? Yeah, the media space is going to shape up. Are there kind of any underestimated risks or surprises that perhaps investors aren't necessarily paying attention to?

[Seema Shah]

Yeah, I think that one thing that we've noticed has been sort of an acceleration of what we called fast the free ad supporter streamers. Think of the tubies of the world that have increased their live sports content, which is really great for grabbing subscribers. They're free. Everybody knows that. They come with ads. I don't think there's any confusion as to the subscription that they have or what they're getting. And I think that probably resonates with a lot of the younger consumers like Gen Z where finances might be a little bit tighter and you really can't have all these subscriptions. So with these free ad supported players improving their content and their live sports, I think that's something to look for as we go into 2026.

[Paul Sweeney]

You see, my Paramount doesn't get Warner Brothers. What do they do then? Because boy, they're left kind of holding the bag there.

[Seema Shah]

Yeah, I mean like from all aspects of our data, they are by far one of the smallest. They only have 4% of advertising dollars in the US compared to the other streamers, 4% of active users. I think that, you know, it's going to be very hard for them because people have so many subscriptions already it's hard to add another one. So unless they really bump up their content and have, you know, a show that's in the zeitgeist like Stranger Things or White Lotus, it's going to be very difficult for them to sort of move out of their positioning regardless of whether or not the Netflix deal goes through.

[Paul Sweeney]

Seema, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate chatting with you. Seema Shah, she's a vice president, research and insights at Sensor Towers. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you backtest it against the s and P500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated Assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc.

[Paul Sweeney]

Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated.

[Paul Sweeney]

Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere. You turn every field in every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent Secure any agent Okta.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Secures AI the Chase Inc. Business Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen. Designed for high spend and limitless cash back ink, Business Premier is a painful card with built in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses and help your business grow. Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business. From innovation and technology to everyday expenses, Inc. Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of 5,000 DOL or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way. Learn [e-mail] businesscard Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC so have you heard.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

The story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories.

[Chase Bank Representative]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Paul Sweeney]

Christine Aquino sitting in for Scarlet Fu. I'm Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios. Let's stay. Let's focus on commercial real estate these days. I'm going to call it, you know, better than stabilize. It feels like it's kind of back for a lot of sectors and a lot of parts of the country here now. We've got interest rates coming down. Should be another support beam for commercial real estate. But Liz Hart, she's the pro president of leasing for North America at Newmark, based in San Francisco. I have no idea where she is now. I'm not sure I want to know. Liz, characterize, kind of you would right now. How's the commercial real estate market in this, in this country?

[Liz Hart]

Well, I think you nailed it. 2025 was really the pivot year. It was the year that we started to have positive absorption across the country halfway through the year. And we're heading into 2026 on quite the optimistic note. Trophy performing exceptionally well in New York City, where you guys are today, 4.6% availability at the top of the market demand, double that right now and with no supply expected until the early2030s.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah, well, you know, the trophy space in Manhattan especially, very much thriving here, as you mentioned. Liz, do you think that means that rents will continue to stay elevated while even if overall vacancy see is also still elevated?

[Liz Hart]

Well, certainly in that part of the trophy market, we would expect it to be elevated in New York City and across the markets. But as you're kind of referencing, rents aren't going to be going up across every single sector at the trophy, definitely. And in the class A market where we see that we're doing, you know, one third of the product inventory, is doing half of the leasing, we'd expect rents to increase there, but it's not going to happen across every single part of the category. In the lower end, we're still struggling.

[Paul Sweeney]

How about retail here? How's that looking these days?

[Liz Hart]

Retail is looking pretty strong. Again, it's a story of outperformance at the top of the market. But what's looking like it's going to be very interesting at the beginning of the year, particularly for those New Year's resolutions. Wellness. Wellness is really expected to be a standout in 2026.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah, well, definitely seeing a lot of like yoga studios, Pilates studios, climbing gyms popping up in the neighborhood. So very much.

[Paul Sweeney]

How about on the industrial side there? We've got this reshoring near shoring. Near shoring mandate. Does that make industrial a good place to be?

[Liz Hart]

It's showing up in the data that what's. What's showing up well, is the new construction so certainly doing well, and then also intermodal cities. So think of areas like Dallas and Phoenix, very close to Mexico. They're showing to be very strong performers and expected to do so in 26 and beyond.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah. What do you think is, well, moving to kind of like the less optimistic part of commercial real estate? Liz, do you think there are kind of sectors that will be challenged heading into next year?

[Liz Hart]

Well, I think when you look at the vacancy that's been on the market for a long time, there's parts that are just not really moving, particularly in retail. So for space that's been on the market for greater than, you know, 24 or 48 months, it's time to reinvent. And I think if your space has been on the market for a couple of years, you really have to look at repositioning it and reconsidering it. If it's not moving, it's probably for a reason. Demand is moving when there is space that matches it.

[Paul Sweeney]

So talk to us about San Francisco. I know you're based in San Francisco. Give us where we are in San Francisco. City was in great, great, great shape before the pandemic. And then maybe no major US City got hurt more during the pandemic than San Francisco. And. But there's some real signs that it's been coming back. Give us a kind of an overview.

[Liz Hart]

Oh, absolutely. I mean, the demand is back at pre pandemic levels, mostly driven by the technology industry. The technology industry has been an outperformer across the country, but certainly led by the AI companies. In San Francisco, you have OpenAI Anthropic being two standouts there, but many others as well who've leased well in excess of 100,000 square feet, you know, several in excess of 500,000 square feet leading that demand curve, rents increasing. So we'd expect San Francisco to be a strong performer in 26 and 27 as well.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah, well, you mentioned a pre pandemic situation, Liz, and it's interesting because we still have about half of pre pandemic office leases rolling. So do you think 2026 is going to be more about growth or are we kind of hitting this right size sort of reality now after we saw a few years of struggle in that space?

[Liz Hart]

Well, at the end of 25 through 27 is when about half of those pre pandemic leases are set to expire. So we're tracking over a billion and a half square, a billion and a half square feet of leases. And what we're seeing in the data is that 72% of those tenants are looking for the same or greater amount of space. So what that shows us is the contraction is mostly behind us and it looks like we're headed into a stabilization and growth cycle.

[Paul Sweeney]

So how about just kind of out in suburbia like you drive around suburbia USA and any office park, I don't see a lot of car. Talk to us about that market because it just feels like that's got a lot of vacancy there. Give us a suburban kind of commercial.

[Liz Hart]

Well, it's hard to say across every single market because it does depend on which suburban market that you're talking about. But certainly, you know, the suburban markets outside of San Francisco, the ones outside of Dallas, there are some pretty strong performers. So it depends on where that demand is and where that job growth is. And if it's proximate to an area that has it, then you know, those, those markets are doing well as well.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yeah. What's your up and coming city for commercial in 2026, Liz?

[Liz Hart]

Well, I think the up and coming, even though it's already there, is still going to be San Francisco because that's set to be the outperformer in 26.

[Paul Sweeney]

Is Dallas and Texas. Is that kind of peaked, do you think?

[Liz Hart]

I don't think it's peaked yet. I think Dallas and Houston still have quite a bit of way to go.

[Paul Sweeney]

All right, Liz, thanks very much. Appreciate it. Liz Hart, President of Leasing for North America, Newmark this is the Bloomberg Intelligence.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 10am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

These days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures AI. If a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around, just.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Go directly to the source Lenovo.com it's.

[Paul Sweeney]

Your last chance to score exclusive deals.

[Chase Bank Representative]

On the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

Gaming desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop.

[Chase Bank Representative]

So avoid all that shopping chaos and.

[Paul Sweeney]

Price comparing and just go directly to the source. Lenovo.com where PCs are up to 35% off. That's Lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo at CVS, it matters that we're not just in your.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded.

[Seema Shah]

It matters that CVS is here to.

[Paul Sweeney]

Fill your prescriptions and here to fill.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Your craving for a tasty and yeah, healthy snack. At cvs, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So Visit [e-mail] or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location with Venmo.

[Paul Sweeney]

Stash A taco in one hand and ordering a ride in the other means you're stacking cash back.

[Erik Larson]

Nice.

[Paul Sweeney]

Get up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash on your favorite brands when you pay with your Venmo debit card. From takeout to ride shares, entertainment and more, pick a bundle with your go tos and start earning cash back at those brands. Earn more cash when you do more with Stash. Venmo Stash terms and exclusions apply. Max $100 cash back per month. See Terms at Venmo Me Stash Terms.