Larry Ellison’s Guarantee Ups Warner Bros. Stakes to a New Level

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast

Episode: Larry Ellison’s Guarantee Ups Warner Bros. Stakes to a New Level

Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney
Date: December 22, 2025

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Overview

This episode tackles major news in the media and entertainment industry: Larry Ellison, the Oracle chairman, has stepped in to personally guarantee equity financing for Paramount Skydance’s $40.4 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. The hosts, joined by Stephen Flynn (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence), break down what Ellison’s move means for the deal, the credit and debt implications, and how investors might view the transaction. The episode also surveys the cruise and theme park industries with Jodi Laurie, and explores CEO turnover and governance trends with Brian Campbell from the Conference Board.

Note: Ads, intros, and outros are omitted. Timestamps are in MM:SS format.

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Main Segment: Larry Ellison’s Personal Guarantee – Paramount/Warner Bros. Deal

The Significance of Ellison’s Backing

[03:13 – 04:12]

• Context: Warner Bros. had rejected Paramount's $30/share tender offer citing a lack of financial guarantee from Larry Ellison, amongst other concerns.
• Development: Skydance/Paramount have now amended their offer, with Ellison providing a personal $40.4 billion equity guarantee.
  • Stephen Flynn: “The fact that he’s personally backing it is something that Warner Brothers was looking for.” [04:12]
• Ellison’s stake: He holds 1.16 billion Oracle shares (~$225 billion at $194/share), making his guarantee highly credible.

Deal Leverage and Debt Structure

[04:29 – 06:23]

• Leverage:
  • Pro forma Paramount/Warner Bros. would have mid-4 times leverage, even after assuming $6 billion annual run-rate cost savings (synergies) – a figure that will take years to realize.
  • Without giving credit for synergies, leverage goes above 5 times.
  • Exchange between analysts:
    • “Synergies, we usually are a little bit more negative.” – Stephen Flynn [05:21]
• Secured Debt/Bondholder Protection:
  • $54 billion secured bridge commitment (structured to potentially rank ahead of existing Warner/Paramount debt).
  • Possible to achieve investment grade for the $54B secured tranche, citing Charter Communications’ structure as a comp.

Implications for Oracle Shareholders and Credit

[06:23 – 07:32]

• Oracle credit risk:
  • Ellison's personal guarantee does not put Oracle's credit rating at direct risk.
  • “Oracle still has a massive equity market cap... The market is telling you every day what they think the value of Oracle equity is worth.” – Stephen Flynn [06:58]
  • There may be indirect concerns but "not directly."
• For Warner bondholders:
  • Paramount/Skydance deal preferable over alternatives like Netflix's competing bid.
    • Skydance would inject equity capital supporting bonds.
    • The Netflix route would leave bondholders with “global networks” — a shrinking, more leveraged business.
  • “In either case, the bonds are probably better off than without [a deal].” – Stephen Flynn [07:36]
  • “Maybe you lean a little bit towards Paramount Skydance.” – Stephen Flynn [08:39]

Notable Moment:

• Lighthearted exchange on credit and equity perspectives on synergies:
  • Analyst: “You're not giving them credit for the synergies, are you?”
  • Flynn: “Well, you have to give them some credit. But, you know, you really want to see it.” [05:13]

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Macro Insight: The Fed’s Current Direction and Upcoming Chair Transition

Guest: Ira Jersey (Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)
[12:31 – 16:08]

Current Fed Debates and Rate Outlook

• Division in FOMC: Two camps – doves seeking rate cuts and those calling for patience.
  • Williams (NY Fed): “We don't have to go quickly, but we're going to ease.” [12:55]
  • A January hold is seen as the base case, with cuts possible in March/April if data allows.
• Upcoming Chair Change:
  • Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026. Trump to name successor in January.
  • New chair would attend March/April FOMC meetings prior to confirmation.
• Influence:
  • The chair is only one member; consensus remains critical.

Powell’s Potential Path

• Unclear where Powell will go post-Fed; possible paths include think tanks or academia, but could simply retire.

Memorable quote:

• “The current volatility that we're seeing out there, I think is the new normal. So CEOs need to adapt.” – Brian Campbell, [37:47]

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Sector Watch: Cruises vs. Theme Parks – Leisure Industry Update

Guest: Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)
[20:07 – 26:47]

Industry Performance & Consumer Trends

• Cruises:

  • Steady, loyal customer base, but still only 2% of the travel industry [20:45].
  • Cruise passengers book far in advance and are upsold experiences and drink packages, aiding cash flows.
  • “The cruisers are still very much cruising and they're spending more than the average consumer.” – Jodi Laurie [20:45]

• Theme Parks:

  • Skew younger and lower income.
  • Customers make bookings later; parks rely on frequent visitors and one-day passes, but in-park spending is harder to drive.
  • High capital expenditures are required for maintenance and new rides.

Financial & Geographic Breakdown

• Theme parks and cruises both high capex, must continually invest for new attractions.

  • “They are high capex. So high capital intensive companies.” – Jodi Laurie [23:06]

• Customer base:

  • Norwegian: ~80% US
  • Royal Caribbean: ~65-70% US
  • Carnival: less than 50% US (significant international exposure)

Notable Moment:

• Demographics of cruisers are changing:
  • “It's 1/3 of each. So it's 1/3 18 to 34 year olds, 1/3 that like middle age group and 55 and older, 1 third. So it's really not specifically the older [traveler].” – Jodi Laurie [26:46]

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Executive Suite: CEO Turnover, Activism & Succession Trends

Guest: Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader, Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)
[30:38 – 38:02]

CEO Turnover Trends

• CEO transitions are rising post-pandemic, sometimes due to delayed retirements and also a proactive governance push.
  • “It is up and we are seeing definitely more CEO transition…making up for some lost time.” – Brian Campbell [31:10]
• Not just underperformers—transitions also spiking at well-performing firms.

Activism and Diversity

• Women CEOs are twice as likely to be targeted by activists—perhaps due to perceptions of being more cooperative [32:18].
• Shift away from diversity/equity/inclusion as top skill; it's “definitely relevant, but not as prominent as it was.” [34:12]

Internal vs. External Hires and Skillset

• Shift towards hiring external CEOs rising due to market volatility.
• Most important traits: crisis management, flexibility, adaptability.
  • “Crisis management is a key skill set that has to be present in the current environment.” – Brian Campbell [33:48]
• Succession planning: More strategic and orchestrated, often involving outgoing CEO in board transition.

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Key Takeaways

• Larry Ellison’s personal guarantee reduces financing risk in the Paramount/Warner Bros. deal, assuaging a primary concern of Warner’s board.
• Even with Ellison’s backing, the merged entity would be highly leveraged, and bondholder position depends on deal structure.
• Oracle’s credit isn’t directly at risk because of Ellison’s personal guarantee.
• High CEO turnover and activism are shaping US corporate governance, with proactive board planning now the norm. Crisis management overtakes DEI as a hot skillset.
• Leisure sector: cruises are resilient and attracting a broader demographic, while theme parks face higher volume but squeezed margins and heavy ongoing investment needs.
• The Federal Reserve is in a period of internal split ahead of a leadership change, with interest rate cut timing uncertain and market volatility the new normal.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “The fact that he’s personally backing it is something that Warner Brothers was looking for.”
  – Stephen Flynn (04:12)

• “Oracle still has a massive equity market cap... That’s what the market’s saying it’s worth. So that's what a credit investor would, would look for that comfort.”
  – Stephen Flynn (06:58)

• “Crisis management is a key skill set that has to be present in the current environment. The ability to adapt and be flexible in spite of moving targets.”
  – Brian Campbell (33:48/37:47)

• “It's really not specifically the older [traveler]… it's 1/3 of each [age group].”
  – Jodi Laurie (26:46)

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Useful Timestamps

• Ellison’s guarantee significance: 03:13–04:12
• Deal leverage, synergies skepticism: 04:29–06:23
• Oracle risk and bondholder impact: 06:23–07:32
• Bondholder choice, Netflix v. Skydance: 07:32–08:39
• Leisure industry (cruises, parks): 20:07–26:47
• CEO turnover and activism: 30:38–38:02
• Fed outlook, Powell's future: 12:31–16:08

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This summary has been organized for clarity and depth, preserving the direct language and insights of the speakers for listeners who want the essence of Bloomberg Intelligence’s latest analysis.

Transcript

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[Podcast Host (Paul)]

All right, let's talk a little bit more about this Larry Ellison personally backing the Paramount bid for Warner Brothers. It's something Warner Brothers was looking for and they appear to have gotten it. Now Stephen Flynn is Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit Analyst here and is in studio with us. Great to see you, Stephen.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Thanks. Good to be here.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Break it down for me. What does it mean when Paramount Skydance says that Larry Ellison, the chairman of Oracle, is offering a personal financial guarantee of $40.4 billion in equity financing if something falls apart, what are they going to call upon Larry Ellison to do?

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Well, this is an important step because mid last week Paramount, excuse me, the Warner Brothers board recommended shareholders reject the tender offer by Paramount for $30 a share. And they listed a list of reasons why. And one of them was that there was no personal guarantee from Larry Ellison. And now the company, Paramount has addressed that this morning with a number of amendments to their tender offer.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

But that means he's putting his equities up at stake. Right?

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

And they confirmed that they hold 1.16 billion Oracle shares. And if you look at, you know, an Oracle shares about $194, that's about $225 billion. That is obviously a large amount of value there. And the fact that he's personally backing it is something that Warner Brothers was looking for.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Still a pro forma Paramount, Warner Brothers. It's going to be highly levered, isn't it? Talk to us about the debt profile there and how do you view it?

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

It gets very complicated. Pro forma Paramount, Warner Brothers will be highly levered. You're talking mid four times leverage overall. And, and that's accounting for a significant number of synergies that we're giving them credit for. So if you look at expected EBITDA for Paramount, expected Ebitda for Warner Brothers and then you add on top of that, what they're targeting is $6 billion of annual run rate cost savings. It'll take them a few years to get there. But if you say pro forma will give them credit, the company's still highly leveraged at about mid 4 times and.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

X that it's above 5 times.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Oh, clearly, yes.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

I mean, come on.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Yeah. And, well, you're a support credit guy.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

You're not giving them credit for the synergies, are you?

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Well, you have to give them some credit. But, you know, you really want to see it.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

I mean, as an equity guy, I'm like, I'm all in on this.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Synergies, we usually are a little bit more negative. Well, what's important, too, is how they break it up. So part of the commitment they have on the creditor side, right? So you talk about Larry Ellison and some other equity providers providing over $40 billion of equity capital. They also have a $54 billion secured bridge commitment. And now that's secured. So if we assume that that debt is ahead of all the existing debt, that's at both Warner Brothers and Paramount Skydance. And again, you give them credit for synergies, you're talking about pro forma leverage through the secured debt of about three times. Now, there's a possibility that you could get that investment grade rated using Charter as a comparable. So if we look at Charter, which is one of the biggest cable companies out there, they owe almost $100 billion of that. About $70 billion or so of it is secured bonds and loans that are IG rated and they're about three times levered. So if we use that at a comp, maybe you could get to investment grade ratings from at least two of the three agencies to qualify for investment grade for that $54 billion, which would be very key to financing.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

All right, I know we're talking about Paramount, Skydance and Warner Brothers as a principal players here, and Netflix, if you want to get into that side of the bid, too. But I'm curious, and this might be a dumb question, Larry Ellison now personally guaranteeing the equity financing. There's a lot of questions about Oracle and its debt overall. We've seen the credit default swaps on its debt ris. That's the cost to insure against a possible default. Does the fact that Larry Ellison is committing to backing a large portion of the money needed for the deal, does that affect Oracle's credit rating at all? Would a credit investor and analyst look at that and think, hmm, no.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Don't forget, Oracle still has a massive equity market cap. Right? And the stock is traded every day. So the market is telling you every day what they think the value of Oracle equity is worth. Right. And he has again, the $1.16 billion, 1.16 billion billion of shares worth about $225 billion. And that's what the market's saying it's worth. So that's what a credit investor would, would look for that comfort or I'm sorry, equity investor Warner Brothers discovery saying that that is backing up his $40.4 billion.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

And a credit investor wouldn't worry about that part of it.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

I don't think indirectly you could have some concern about it, but I don't think directly you would.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

The average credit investors you talked to at Warner Brothers, which deal do they prefer?

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Well, it's complicated. You would argue that, you know, the, it's interesting is the Warner Brothers bonds were investment grade rated right through most of, through half of last year or half of this year, excuse me, 2025. And then they were by far the worst performing huge negative total return. They went into junk. They were fallen angel in July and now they've bounced back. And one of the better performing high yield names was all this speculation of some sort of takeout. In either case, the bonds are probably better off than they would be without it. But there's still some concern. So if they go with the Paramount Skydance deal, there's a chance they could be behind all that secured debt that we talked about, that $54 billion of secured debt. But you have all that equity capital coming in that's supporting the overall company, which would give you support as a bondholder for Warner Brothers. Now the problem with the Netflix deal is that if you're a bondholder, you're probably left with the global networks which is going to be spun out before Netflix comes in and buys the studios and streaming operations. And that company will be relatively highly levered with a declining business. So I'd say it's pretty close, but maybe you lean a little bit towards Paramount Skydance.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Really?

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

All right.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

I wouldn't have thought that you guys are getting soft in your old age back in my day. All right, Steve Flynn, thanks so much. Appreciate it. Steve flynn, Senior CREDIT analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence Stay with us.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Baillie Gifford Representative]

What is actual investing? We believe that it's our real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Baillie Gifford, Actual investors find out [e-mail].

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Support for the show comes from public on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options crypto and and now Generated Assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated Assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

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[Podcast Host (Paul)]

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

All right, we got some economic data last week that the markets were looking for in terms of the labor market and inflation. We got some more coming up here. The question is, how is our, how are our good friends down at the Federal Reserve kind of digesting all this? For that, we go to Mr. Ira Jersey and we're going to get a sense of what his thoughts are there. Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist and Bloomberg Intelligence Ira, where do you think the Fed is these days? And they're thinking about this economy where they need to go?

[Ira Jersey (Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Yeah, they were all over the place. So what you didn't mention, Paul, was that we had a ton of Fed speak last week, too, and we actually had even more this morning. So you definitely have two camps that have been built in here. And one is the more dovish side of the, of the aisle who think that, hey, we should be cutting interest rates at least a little bit. You even had Williams, the, the president of the New York Fed, who's the vice chair of the fomc, so presumably has a little bit more weight than the rank and file members. But so he said that like, hey, we can go. We don't have to go quickly, but we're going to ease. So that suggests to me that maybe a January skip is perhaps the base case for now, but then more easing later. So March, April, you know, once we have a little bit more data and we can see have the rate cuts that we've already had actually work to stimulate the economy or not.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

So the division inside the FOMC is not new. This is something we've seen over the last couple of rate decisions. But we do know we're going to get a new Fed chair starting in late May, because that is when Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends. Put together the division within the Fed and this timetable for new personnel at the FOMC and whether we should be paying attention to all this Fed speak.

[Ira Jersey (Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Well, I think you have to listen to all the Fed speak, but you have to take it holistically, right? You can't just take one member and say, oh, that's exactly what they're going to do because it is a committee. And that's what we have to remember. You know, when the new chair comes in, President Trump has said he's going to announce a new chair in January. Presumably that person is going to take Stephen Myron's seat. And if that's the case, then the Fed chair elect will be in for both the March and the April meetings. And so therefore we'll have some time around the table. But we'll make a few speeches as the Fed chair and we'll be able to see, or as a Fed governor, I should say. And so we'll be able to see, is this person really very dovish? Are they not very dovish? Presumably they'll be more dovish than Jay Powell has been. But at the same time, you know, again, that person is only one one of the 12 members who actually votes on the policy decisions.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Well, if Stephen Myron is going to be replaced, we need to pay attention to what he says. We already know what side of the dovish or hawkish camp he lands on.

[Ira Jersey (Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Well, yeah, I mean he just, you know, the most dovish person on the committee. And you usually get those extremes, right? You get one or two really dovish or relatively hawkish members. But it's that middle ground that you have to look at. So that's why someone like Williams, for example, is important to listen to because you know, he's voted, he hasn't yet dissented one way or the other. But you know, if that, if he's saying that, hey, we're not going to necessarily cut in January, you have to take that seriously.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Ira, do we know what Jerome Powell is going to do once he steps down from the chairmanship?

[Ira Jersey (Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

As far as I know, he hasn't said what he's going to do. You know, a lot of former Fed chairs either take a role at one of the think tanks in Washington or go into academia. Those are two of the typical paths. I wouldn't be surprised if Jerome Powell maybe even just retired and wound up being on a lecture circuit or something like that instead of, instead of having a day to day type of job.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Yeah. Commanding six figure, paying fees, right?

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Yeah, exactly. A couple board seats, couple speaking things, that's the way to go. I mean, who needs it? Ira, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it. Ira Jersey, chief US Interest rate Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us there. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public. On public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

[Public Investing Announcer]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures these days it.

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[Podcast Host (Paul)]

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

I like the analyst who covered like the travel industry, like cruise ships, theme.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Parks, and you're going on your first cruise.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Going on my first cruise next fall and to France. So that'll be interesting. Jodi Laurie actually does this. Laurie, she actually does this for a living. She's a credit analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. She follows a lot of the leisure sectors of the economy. Think theme parks and cruise lines, that type of stuff. Hotels, casinos, that type of stuff from the credit perspective. Because remember, debt is soft. I mean, equity is soft, debt is hard. Right? There you go. Jodi, let's talk to us about the cruise lines here. It seems like the question cruise people are cruising back again. I mean, Charlie Pellet's any, you know, sign of that, how are they performing?

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

So the cruise lines always have a dedicated base, but cruising is sort of interesting because it's only 2% of the travel industry. It really is such a small portion of it. Where we've been watching is for those new to cruisers, which I don't know if I'm necessarily convinced that they're going as often or they're attracting the new to cruisers. But the cruisers are still very much cruising and they're spending more than the average consumer.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

They're also spending more than the people who go to theme parks, according to your research. And partly that might be because the cruise line industry attracts a different kind of customer than the theme park industry. Theme park skews younger. Cruises skew older, easy. Which would you prefer if you are an operator? Which would you prefer if you're an investor?

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

So we don't make full recommendations, but I will tell you a couple of things based on our research findings. So first of all, you have to think about how people book cruising versus how they book theme parks. So when you're talking about cruises, they book far in advance. They book a year or two well in advance. And what the cruise lines have been doing, particularly post pandemic is they've been locking people in on the drink packages, on the experiences. They've been giving these steal of deals, excursion ideas and when you get on the boat it's more expensive. So people say okay, I'm going to book my cruise, but I'm also going to book this, you know, the snorkeling and I'm going to book this, I'm going to book that. The ones that I definitely want to do. They also book the drink packages which you know, I think you can go either way on that personally because I don't think I drink enough, but maybe other people do. And, and it really sort of just helps their cash flows. Now theme parks people book much later, they are younger, they are lower income than the US median household. And the key for them is they can get people in the door. They can get them with, with season passes or they can just get them for the one day pass. But they' not necessarily convincing them to, to spend in park the same way.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

But there's higher volume in theme park right there.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

There's pretty high volume in theme parks. But if they're just paying for the admission, it might not necessarily cover the cost per se. Right. They'll get in the door. But they have high capex, they have high, just high cost in general and they have all the employees that they're.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Paying for Six Flags, that's a theme park that got some local Jersey flavor here. Six Flags Great Adventure. How's the capital structure for these theme parks?

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

They are high capex. So high capital intensive companies.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

They have high lever rides and.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Right, exactly. And similar to cruise lines. So where we sort of see it interesting is theme parks and cruise lines are constantly, they have to get the new experience in. Right. So they have to spend not just on maintaining their products, so not, not just maintaining the ship or maintaining the ride. They also have to get new ones in. So people say I want to go to Great Adventure because I want to ride Superman.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Right.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

So they, they do this to get people excited, draw them in so that they're going. I mean, you know, the biggest example that we don't cover, I don't cover Universal or Comcast but you know, Universal's new theme park this year was a big driver to Florida. It wasn't as, as big as expected necessarily, but it's still pretty big. Now if you're talking about the regional Theme parks is a little bit more difficult because people aren't necessarily planning these long term vacations around great adventure.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Do the theme parks attract more domestic consumers than the cruises? I mean, I'm just curious in terms of the sustainability and the stability of your customer base.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

So it depends on the brand because if you look pre pandemic and now going into a few years post pandemic, the cruise lines they segment so Norwegian, most of their customer base is us. They're US customers. When you get to Royal Caribbean, it's a little bit less. It's about. So I think it's about 80% for Norwegian. I'm doing this off the top of my head memory, but 80% Norwegian you get to about. It's like 70 or 65 for oil and then you get to Carnival and it's even less than that. It's closer to half. It's not quite half. That are us versus international. They have a much larger international presence. Brian Egger and I, my equity counterpart, we were on the Aida, which is one of their brands that they market to international customers, specifically in Germany. And it was a 133 around the world cruise. They were stopping in New York for the day and they brought a bunch of us on, a bunch of us equity and credit nerds and took us around the ship and everything was in German as expected because most of their customers were German. So that's. Carnival has a much more diversified customer base. If you talk about theme parks, Sea World or United parks as they go by now, their Florida parks, which make up about half their revenue, is International, about 10, 20%. But when you get to Six Flags it's much more domestic.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

We were off the Amalfi coast last fall.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Whoa, fancy.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

And I saw this big yacht that's like either navy blue or black. And I said, what is, who owns that? I said it's the Ritz Carlton.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

The Ritz Carlton, Yes.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

I actually went on it, just parked in.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Those are small though. I mean small in terms of the real site.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

500 people.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Yeah, I mean that looked pretty cool.

[Jodi Laurie (Senior Credit Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Yeah, that's for the people who want to be on a luxury yacht but don't want to actually own a luxury yacht. Right. The joke about boats is bring on another thousand. Right. My mother in law likes to always say that and that's why it's called boat. So but the, you know, the thing about cruising is that there's a perception about who the typical cruiser is. Right. It's the, you know, older people who are retired who like to bring basically the Catskills on the water. But but really, I mean it's changed over time. And what's interesting about our credit research on our travel survey that we do every half a year is we're seeing that it's actually really, really spread out. If you look into the buckets that we've segmented, it's really, you know, it's 1/3 of each. So it's 1/3 18 to 34 year olds, 1/3 that like middle age group and 55 and older, 1 third. So it's really not specifically the older.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

All right, very good, Jodi.

[Stephen Flynn (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Credit Analyst)]

Thank you so much.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

We appreciate that. Jodi Laurie, she is senior credit analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence following the leisure part of the economy. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from Public. On public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Well, it is a crazy time to be a CEO. New research from the Conference Board provides insights onto two big trends. Number one, CEO turnover. I think it's going up CEO and number two CEO targeted shareholder activism. And again we just had that try on acquisition of Janice Henderson and they were shareholders so they said we're going to buy this whole thing out, right? So it's happening out there. Brian Campbell joins us, U.S. center Leader for Governance and Sustainability at the Conference Board. Brian, talk to us about CEO turnover. Is it rising and if so, why?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

Sure, I think Paul, thank you for having me. I think the trend is that it is up and we are seeing definitely more CEO transition, partially driven by what may have been longer delayed CEO transitions. When you think back to the pandemic and the volatility since then, you know companies kept People in positions for longer. And I think that coupled with regular transition, is showing a spike, so making.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Up for some lost time, which makes sense. Where do we see this happening the most? Are they big companies, smaller companies, companies that are lagging behind in terms of performance? And, and if so, by what metrics are we looking at performance?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

Sure. Thank you, Scarlett. I think what we're noticing is a trend that's across the board and in fact higher. A spike in well performing companies as opposed to just poor performing companies. So I think that's the news part of this to take away. And then I think what you're also seeing is we would view this as a shift in corporate governance, more of a proactive approach at the board level.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Female CEOs are twice more likely to be targeted by activists. Wow. What's the data show there?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

Well, I think what we're seeing is that twice as likely to be targeted would be reflective of what the data shows. And then from the market's perspective, it's possible that activists are targeting women CEOs because they're more likely to cooperate. May play into other stereotypes, but definitely the trend so high that it is notable.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Well, I guess one exception to that is what's happening over at Lululemon.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Right.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Because Elliot has a stake in Lululemon and it has now become the biggest shareholder in that company. Calvin McDonald, the male CEOs on his way out at the end of January, and they're eyeing the former cfo, Ralph Lauren, who is a woman. Yeah.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

All right, we'll see. So, CEOs, when I look for a CEO, if I'm the board, do I prefer an internal candidate or an external candidate? And is that changing?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

Historically, it was an internal focus. We are seeing a shift toward external, and I think that just layers into where we are from a volatility standpoint in the markets generally and what companies are facing between the economy, inflation and activist activity.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Brian, what skill set is most valuable for a board right now when they're looking at a new CEO? I would imagine that during the pandemic, you wanted someone who is very familiar with supply chain logistics. And even so, in the era of tariffs under Trump 2.0, that would be something that's really, really important. But have we seen certain skill sets become kind of paramount and then others become less important? Sure.

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

I think the skills matrix that a board focuses on when looking at potential candidates has certainly shifted. Crisis management is a key skill set that has to be present in the current environment. The ability to adapt and be flexible in Spite of moving targets. And that was not necessarily the case a decade or so ago.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

And dei that no longer matters or is it still there in the background?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

We would say it's definitely relevant, but not as prominent as it was. And companies are not speaking about it quite as affirmatively as they were in the last few years.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

That didn't last very long.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

How long did it last? For like a year or two?

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

I don't know. It didn't seem like a flash. There you go, talks about compensation. What's the latest on CEO compensation? Because a lot of folks feel like the stock based compensation, while the lines the CEO with the longer term growth, they tend to set targets that are short term. If you meet this earnings or this cash flow, this revenue boom, you get this monster stock award. But that's always been the case, I guess.

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

Sure. I think what you're seeing there are boards focused on their own accountability. They're under pressure to drive performance and they need the CEO tied into that. So certainly when you talk about the activist side of it, you've got the Lululemon piece. But then when you think about traditional board orchestrations of CEO roles, recently Coca Cola announced that in March they're going to have a new CEO, Henrique Braun, who's coming in with 30 years of experience. This is part of an orchestrated change. So definitely new opportunities within structuring and governance. And then I think the compensation package there's is more tuned into the longer term performance at the company versus maybe an external candidate where there's a comp package that lures them to the company.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Brian, I'm sure you guys have done this CEO's report, this research report a couple of times now. What surprises you the most in this latest edition? What, what did you not anticipate?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

I think what we're seeing in the background, and we're certainly hearing it from the members of the conference board anecdotally is the shift in corporate governance to a strategic orchestrated CEO succession plan. So that's new. I think the CEO seat has always been a quote unquote, you know, potential hot seat, but definitely more so orchestrated planning boards being accountable and trying to plan that succession and then also including CEOs on the exit, keeping them on the board to continue that institutional knowledge. So opportunity there as well.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Wait, so it used to be a day where when they were out as CEO they were just gone from the board completely and Persona non grata.

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

Right. And I think it's part of that strategic building of a continuity plan that will continue to Perpetuate the institutional knowledge and keep some help for the new CEO transitioning into the role.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

How about succession planning for a CEO these days? Because I follow for a long time the Walt Disney company and they had a great succession plan in place until the CEO blew it up at the last moment. And now it's been 10 years and kind of screwing around with Mr. Iger. How important is succession planning?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

It's critical these days. And I think what happens now is you've got pipelines of potential candidates, internal and external, which is new, and then also being able to transition in case somebody who is in the wings waiting for an opportunity decides that they're going to leave and take an opportunity elsewhere. Companies need to be flexible. Boards need to be adaptable.

[Podcast Host (Paul)]

Well, Paul, to your point, now they have James Gorman, the former CEO and chairman of Morgan Stanley, leading the succession planning over at Disney because he himself had done such a good job planning for his succession at Morgan Stanley.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

Yeah, unfortunately, they lost to at least two, maybe at least three serious outstanding executives and some time, a lot of time. Yeah. But I guess if you, if you poll Disney shareholders will be like, hey, Bob can stay in his office as long as he wants. That's how good he is, actually how good we believe him to be. What's the big thing that CEOs need to be focusing on these days? It doesn't. Is it simply shareholder max mentioning shareholder value or stakeholder value?

[Brian Campbell (U.S. Center Leader for Governance and Sustainability, Conference Board)]

I think that's a critical aspect of it that will always be there. At the end of the day, though, I think it is building out that more robust skill set toward flexibility, adaptability, crisis management. The current volatility that we're seeing out there, I think is the new normal. So CEOs need to adapt.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst (Equity/Credit)]

All right, very good. Brian Campbell, U.S. senator leader for Governance and Sustainability at the Conference Board here.

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