Bloomberg Intelligence Host (1:33)

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Nathan Hager (1:54)

Want to bounce off with Live Nation and our next guest, Jennifer Ree, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst Jennifer, thanks so much for coming in studio here. We don't know a lot about this Live Nation settlement, right? Maybe we should just start with what do we know, right?

Jennifer Ree (2:10)

And it's changing by the minute, by the way. I keep seeing new reports with new details, but it looks like at least one part of it is a divestiture that would be divesting large amphitheaters that are owned by Live Nation. The Department of Justice alleged that live nation owned 60 out of the 100 top amphitheaters in the US and the control over those amphitheaters which the artists really need for summer tours. Desire for summer tours was part of the problem. Some of the claims that were left in this litigation. So selling some of them opens them up to other promoters.

Karen Moscow (2:43)

Okay. I guess one big question people had was Ticketmaster, the fate of Ticketmaster, and whether that stays with Live Nation or whether it's spun out or the company is forced to sell that. Do we have a firm answer as to what happens to Ticketmaster?

Jennifer Ree (2:57)

Well, not really. According to the DOJ settlement, it does not have to be sold. But there are 40 states involved as well. They are also plaintiffs, and they also have the authority to litigate under federal antitrust laws, just as the Department of Justice does. And not all of them have settled. According to the news reports, New York has actually come out and said, this isn't good enough. We're going to continue on. So if they continue on with the litigation, they will continue to seek a divestiture order from the judge for Live Nation to sell Ticketmaster. They see that as the only solution to kind of fix a broken concert ticketing system and live concert industry. I'll tell you, I think it's a long shot. You know, once you get the settlement with the Department of Justice and you kind of get the lose the weight of the Department of Justice behind you on these antitrust matters, it is difficult for the states to go forward and win. Even if they won a jury determination that Live Nation was guilty of illegal monopolization. I'm not so sure that the judge would be willing to stick his neck out and impose what's considered a really drastic remedy generally to force a company to break itself up.

Nathan Hager (4:00)

So let's play pretend and say the states are not successful with their trials. Does this DOJ settlement mean anything at all to you and me when we go out to try to buy tickets? I mean, and I've said this, People who listen to the show regularly know. I talk about being a family of five, and, man, you're taking a small mortgage. This is like, take the whole family to go see a show. So is that gonna get any better under this settlement?

Jennifer Ree (4:23)

As it stands, I'll tell you that I'm skeptical. And, you know, what you just said is why this case is so politically popular. And this was a little bit surprising because it really has bipartisan interest. It has bipartisan support, you know, consumer support. Kid Rock was gonn along, and he was going to be a witness for the. For the plaintiffs in this case, because Live Nation has been under a Department of justice consent order since 2010. So, in other words, since 2010, the way they behave in the marketplace was supposed to be regulated. They were supposed to behave in a certain way, and they've managed to really get around that for years. In fact, during the first Trump administration, the Department of Justice investigated determined that Live Nation was violating the terms of that order and extended it and sort of bolstered its terms. And now this case came along with the allegation that no, Live Nation continues to violate the terms of that order. And so my skepticism comes from there are new terms here that they're talking about that again are behavioral. I talked about selling the amps, but there are also behavioral conditions. And if Live Nation's been able to get around behavioral conditions since 2010, I'm not sure what's going to stop them now.

Karen Moscow (5:31)

What about Ticketmaster's competitors? Have they done things better? Have they changed the way that they sell tickets or that they allow people to buy and sell tickets?

Jennifer Ree (5:40)

What's interesting, you ask? Because the CEO and founder of SeatGeek was one of the witnesses I heard last week. And SeatGeek started as a secondary ticket seller. They were just a marketplace to bring together people who wanted to sell tickets they couldn't use and buyers. But they're trying to get into what's called primary ticketing, being the first one to ticket an event and really have struggled. And they say they have struggled because of Live Nation, that they have superior technology, that their platform is better, that what they can offer venues is better. But they haven't been able to get those venues signed up because either they have a long term exclusive agreement to be ticketed by Ticketmaster, or because Live Nation, which is a huge promoter, handles artist tours, said we'll route our artists around your venue. We won't bring them to your venue if you use some company other than Ticketmaster.

Karen Moscow (6:24)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

IBM Narrator (6:29)

The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.

Odoo Advertiser (6:58)

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Karen Moscow (8:02)

at

Nathan Hager (8:02)

Oppenheimer we're proven because we're grounded in discipline. For 145 years we've been building and protecting wealth through every market cycle with precision, clarity and the courage to think boldly beyond the moment. This is what market tested legacy looks like for this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management, Capital markets, Investment banking.

Bloomberg Intelligence Host (8:32)

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Nathan Hager (8:46)

Just a few days ago Novo Nordisk was suing Hims and Hers because they were selling a cheaper knockoff brand of their best selling Wegovy blockbuster obesity drug. Well you know what? They're in business once again with Hims and hers. Here to break it down is Madison Mueller, Bloomberg News health reporter. Boy, shares of Hims and hers up now I think better than 30%. So Wall street obviously likes this situation. How are these two companies working together?

Bloomberg News Reporter (9:12)

Yeah, it's a little bit of a crazy surprising situation that ends a months long saga between the two companies. They are now pairing up for the second time to allow Novo to sell discounted versions of its weight loss drugs on Hims and hers telehealth platform. And people might recall this actually was the case back in June. The two companies were working together to do something similar and that sort of fell apart spectacularly when Novo accused hims of deceptive marketing of these copycat weight loss medications that it was continuing to sell on its platform and that really sent him shares down at the time. But the two companies since then have traded various barbs. I mean with Novo suing hims overselling a copycat version of its blockbuster weight loss pill that recently launched. And so this is definitely a surprise to, I think, a lot of investors out there who had expected this to continue dragging on between the two companies.

Nathan Hager (10:08)

So is this what's really driving this strategic partnership, though? Is it E Health, these E Health providers, and if so, sort of connect those dots for us?

Bloomberg News Reporter (10:17)

Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think on both sides, both companies are under enormous pressure right now. Hims mounting regulatory and legal pressure, both with the Novo Nordisk lawsuit that now has been pulled, but also with the FDA saying that it was going to crack down on compounded weight loss drugs. There's a possible DOJ investigation, and they also disclosed during earnings a couple of weeks ago that they're under investigation by the sec. So they have a lot going on themselves and really need a path forward. Even though they have other offerings on their platform, Investors really have said that they don't see another similar avenue of growth like weight loss drugs. Then on the Novo Nordisk side, Novo has really been losing market share to companies like Hims that sell these knockoff weight loss drugs, as well as Eli Lilly, which is a massive pharmaceutical company based here in the US and they have rival weight loss drugs that have become more popular than Novos. So there's a lot of pressure for both companies on both sides. These E Health platforms, like you said, have been an enormous driver of growth for Lilly and for Novo. A lot of patients are seeking out these medications on these online platforms where it's often easier and can be cheaper to get these medications. And so partnering. Both companies have been looking to partner with a lot of these E Health companies, from RO to Weight Watchers to Him and hers.

Nathan Hager (11:36)

Right. What is Hims and Hers? Sort of bread and butter, if you will.

Bloomberg News Reporter (11:40)

Yeah. I mean, for a long time it was erectile dysfunction and hair loss drugs.

Nathan Hager (11:44)

Okay.

Bloomberg News Reporter (11:44)

And so they really went after this, you know, consumer market, consumer drugs that are popular and that maybe patients didn't, you know, were embarrassed for whatever reason to go into their doctor and ask for these medications. They wanted a more discreet online sort of service where they can get them. But then when they moved into weight loss drugs, I think two years ago now, at this point, that really became what put them on the map for a lot of people. I mean, I still talk to people who weren't really paying attention to what hims was doing until they started selling weight loss drugs. And that was a massive boon for them over the last couple of years and really a big, major growth driver. And then when that sort of ended, that it became a question mark. Of sort of what was going to be that next avenue of growth for them.

Nathan Hager (12:27)

So Novo has a new CEO, right? Mike is it dude Star.

Bloomberg News Reporter (12:31)

Yeah.

Nathan Hager (12:31)

Okay. He was personally involved in these negotiations with hims and hers. What does that sort of tell you about this new CEO? I guess a much more hands on approach than some others might have.

Bloomberg News Reporter (12:41)

Yeah, definitely. And the last sort of talks and issues really fell apart under Novo's last CEO. So Mike was kind of looking to to bring things back and really from what we understand like shepherded this renewed partnership between the two companies. He was very involved him and the him CEO Andrew Dudam spoke directly, worked directly on reigniting this partnership between the two companies. You know, Mike has taken a more aggressive approach than Novo has historically. Novo CEOs have historically because they've really lost out in the US market that they have helped create and that is the most lucrative weight loss drug market. And he's looking for aggressive actions to get them back in the game. Everything from M and A to sort of the approach that they're taking with these compounding pharmacies and with these E health companies. And one of the things he has told us that when he took this job several months ago, one of the feedbacks he got from a lot of investors and analysts was that Nova wasn't the making making the most of this, you know, consumer health E health market like in the same way that Lilly was and that was somewhere that where they could really improve things. So he said that that's been a major push for them even with sort of refreshing their own consumer health websites and the way that everything looks just making it a better experience for consumers, patients. And so that sort of fits in with this same strategy with hims.

Karen Moscow (14:04)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

IBM Narrator (14:09)

The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.

Odoo Advertiser (14:39)

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Bess Friedman (15:41)

believe in starting with your financial goals, not a formula. At Oppenheimer we put the full strength of our long standing expertise to work understanding your life and your ambitions and designing the precise strategies that build and protect your wealth with confidence across this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management, capital markets, investment banking.

Bloomberg Intelligence Host (16:12)

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Karen Moscow (16:26)

We want to talk a little bit about some individual sectors and here I'm really talking about consumer and high end consumer, luxury, consumer.

Nathan Hager (16:33)

Okay.

Karen Moscow (16:34)

They are obviously impacted by how people feel when it comes to the conflict in the Middle east and how comfortable people feel about spending in this current environment. There's a lot of uncertainty out there. What does that mean for companies like lvmh? What does it mean for, you know, the companies behind Cartier? Deborah Aiken is the luxury goods analyst here at Bloomberg Intelligence and joins us now from London. And Deborah, you've crunched the numbers and you say that this Middle east war will have a quantifiable impact on the luxury goods space, at least what was expected for 2026?

Deborah Aiken (17:12)

That's right, yes. So we went through some estimates and some data from third party sources. We started with Altogamma, who having spoken to around 19 south side analysts had looked at 2026 and we saw that the highest growth was set to come from Middle east at around 6%, of which 4.5% from locals and one and a half percent from tourists. And that was the fastest growth in the sector. In the sector which we expected for 26 to grow to 4 to 5%. So we then started to say, okay, what happens if we see demand coming off in the Middle east locally at around 10% and that gave us about a 50bps dent for every 10% that was coming off. And given that we get a lot of that high wealth traveling abroad also to spend, we felt they could quite quickly across the year and depending on what would happen around the area with around 1 1/2% shaved off that 4% overall for the global industry.

Nathan Hager (18:19)

Deb, of the Luxury names, the luxury retailers globally, is anyone particularly better positioned to sort of weather this storm?

Deborah Aiken (18:29)

I think we need to think about the the biggest global makers and the most high end. So we know companies like Hermes and Brunello Cuccinelli are running and expecting high single digit to low double digit growth in 2026. Much of that comes from parts of Asia at the high end, very much from the us, parts of Europe and the Middle East. So there's a very there. And then also we could look at names like Richemont for example, where Cartier has been growing very strongly. And Richemont incidentally is one of only two who give away their breakdown. In Middle Eastern Africa they have 9% of sales from MEA region, Prada being the other with around 4% which is where it is on average for the industry overall for Middle East Africa. But overall we would expect Rolexes and others to do very well with waiting lists. So high end jewelry and some of the high end leather goods or apparel makers we would think would do very well. It's quite interesting that into this geopolitical unrest for Q4 there were some big names coming through with high single digit or double digit growth from the Middle East. So if things do continue for a long time, it does knock some of the growth away.

Karen Moscow (19:51)

You mentioned jewelry and you mentioned leather goods. What about spirits? How is that different when it comes to, you know, the breakdown, the categories within luxury?

Deborah Aiken (20:01)

So the only spirit maker that I closely follows my one of my colleagues color covers the high end spirits. But I would be looking at what would happen within LVMH Group. Their biggest exposures were out of Asia and the US and where they were doing very well again in champagnes, doing better in wines. But spirits, particularly cognacs, were difficult again for 2026. So the growth outlook there wasn't very strong.

Karen Moscow (20:30)

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

IBM Narrator (20:35)

The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced Costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business IBM Running a

Odoo Advertiser (21:06)

business is hard enough, so why make it harder? With a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software. Instead of growing your business, this is where Odoo comes comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part, Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o.com we

Bess Friedman (22:08)

believe in starting with your financial goals, not a formula. At Oppenheimer, we put the full strength of our long standing expertise to our work. Understanding your life and your ambitions and designing the precise strategies that build and protect your wealth with confidence across this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management, capital markets, investment banking.

Bloomberg Intelligence Host (22:38)

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Karen Moscow (22:52)

With long term bond yields as they go, so go mortgage rates. And so I want to bring in our next guest. She is Bess Friedman, CEO at Brown Harris Stevens to join us to talk about what's happening in the residential housing market and best. I guess the best way I want to start things off is to kind of take a big step back and consider just how much international conflicts tend to affect the housing market. Yes, we know they lead to higher bond yields and or they can lead to higher bond yields in this case which could increase mortgage rates. But what does it mean in terms of demand overall for housing in the

Bess Friedman (23:28)

U.S. well, good morning. Thank you for having me this morning. You know, I think it's just More volatility and uncertainty. And I think, you know, we've already had sort of a bit of a frozen housing market and some challenges with affordability. And this just creates a little bit more sort of concern for buyers who've been on the sidelines a bit. And so they may hold off. Even though we saw rates go down, they're lower than they were the 30 year from a year ago, which is good. But this war is not really great for markets because, you know, people don't know what's going to be. And so it's. It's hard to say what the impact will be. But, you know, I think it's going to be slow and steady and people are watching and, you know, when buyers need to buy and can buy, they do. And in this environment, it's sort of wait and see a little bit.

Nathan Hager (24:25)

Is cash still king in the home

Bess Friedman (24:27)

buying market right now?

Nathan Hager (24:28)

Because we knew for a long time there was this trend of people who had the cash were using it. It was really hard for other people to go up against them and win in these bidding wars. Is that still the case or is that starting to, you know, pull back a little bit?

Bess Friedman (24:41)

You know, I'm still seeing the cash is king. Last year we saw, you know, especially in places like New York City, where you have discretionary markets, you know, where people are buying their second or third home. You know, cash is king. And we saw more than half the deals last year in New York City were done in cash. And so, yeah, I think that goes a long way, especially because money is more expensive. So if people have the cash, they're using it to buy their homes. So I haven't seen that mitigate at all. I see. I think people who can afford to and have cash are going to use it versus getting a mortgage.

Karen Moscow (25:18)

And a lot of the people who have the cash tend to be international buyers as well. How present are they in this housing market?

Bess Friedman (25:25)

Not seeing a lot of the international buyers as of late. I see a lot of domestic people moving from within states markets, you know, like New York to Texas, New York to Florida, but that sort of thing. But I don't see a huge international presence.

Nathan Hager (25:41)

When you look at affordability across the map of the US where does the buyer get the most value for their money at the moment?

Bess Friedman (25:51)

I mean, that's so. It's really hard to say. I mean, there are certain pockets in areas, you know, in different places of the United States where there are good, you know, deals where there's ample supply, but, you know, there's certain parts of New York, even New York City, where there's decent supply and people can negotiate and really get something that makes sense, where the price per square foot is really a good value. Parts of Brooklyn, there's parts of upstate New York and Florida, there's different areas. It really depends on someone's circumstances and what they can afford. But where you see tighter supply, like places like Palm beach and Connecticut, that's where buyers are much more challenged. But there's certain areas, like, you know, in California and different areas where there is decent, there's a decent amount of supply. It just really depends because real estate is so local and it depends on someone's circumstances and what they can afford.

Karen Moscow (26:55)

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one. One town in one state will be completely different from another town in the same state. What does inventory look like when it comes to existing homes versus newly new construction?

Bess Friedman (27:09)

You know, you guys probably have read this stat that we have a shortage of homes in the United states of roughly 4 million, give or take. And we have a real challenge in that we need to get more supply. So, you know, builders are, you know, not as quick to build today as they were. And so we're not seeing the same incentives to build. We have challenges with zoning. And the people that own homes already are taking their time to sell as well because they have locked in rates that are lower and therefore they don't want to list and sell. So we have a challenge in both areas. And so, you know, we're trying to do things like, as you guys are probably aware of, City of Yes. Where that was able to. Were able to get something like 80,000 new units into the housing market. We need more legislation like that so that we can get, you know, more supply into the market. So new home sales are, you know, new builder sales are slower. But, you know, it's sort of a challenge in both arenas in the resale market and in the. The new home market.

Nathan Hager (28:14)

I'm wondering if it's going to. If banks are going to get a little stingy when it comes to mortgages in the months ahead. And part of that I'm wondering is might that be a knockoff effect of the cracks we're seeing in the private credit market. Are there any signs out there that make you think it's going to be harder for folks to get a mortgage in the coming months?

Bess Friedman (28:34)

I haven't seen anything in particular, but, you know, it's been somewhat slow. If you talk to mortgage professionals, they'll tell you that people, you know, are taking their time they're not, you know, jumping into the housing market in the way that they were. There's a little bit more refinancing right now, but I'm not seeing anything via restrictions that are prohibiting people. It's more of, you know, people feel they can't afford to buy their first time home. The stat was something like first time homebuyers are now roughly 40 years old when they used to be 28 years old, just, you know, a little more than 10 years ago. So people have been priced out of the American dream, as they say. And so hopefully we can come up with new incentives and ways for people to be able to get back into the housing market. Things like city abs, good legislation, up zoning, all those things. We need more supply. That's really the biggest issue. You know, every article you read from economists, from law professors, they talk about the fact that we just, we need more supply and we have to put more supply in the market. Freezing rents, those sorts of things certainly do not help the market.

Bloomberg Intelligence Host (29:41)

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 10am to noon eastern on bloomberg.com the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Karen Moscow (30:08)

Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning, right in your podcast feed. Hi, I'm Karen Moscow.

Nathan Hager (30:15)

And I'm Nathan Hager.

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