Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary
Episode: Lowe’s Profit Tops Estimates on Online Growth
Date: November 19, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney
Guests: Drew Redding (Bloomberg Intelligence US Homebuilding Analyst), Mary Ross Gilbert (Bloomberg Intelligence Retail Analyst), Liz Hart (President of Leasing, Newmark)
Episode Overview
This episode dives into corporate earnings and trends across retail, home improvement, and commercial real estate. The hosts analyze Lowe’s latest results (with a focus on online growth and market competition), discuss the strategy behind TJX’s continued retail outperformance, and get a market update on U.S. commercial real estate, with an emphasis on retail, office, and industrial sectors.
Key Segments & Insights
Lowe’s Earnings Outperform Expectations
Guest: Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence
[01:54 – 06:23]
-
Summary of Lowe’s Quarter vs. Home Depot
- Lowe’s earnings were "better than feared," especially compared to Home Depot. While same-store sales fell short of consensus, the outcome was in line or a bit better than buy-side expectations.
- The full-year guidance was trimmed, with forecasts for comparable sales now “flat to up 1%” (implying a flat Q4).
- Both Lowe’s and Home Depot experienced about a “100 basis point impact from hurricane activity that was not replicated this year,” so underlying business trends are stable.
- The company, like its peers, is navigating “consumer uncertainty” and a weak housing market.
Quote:
“I think Lowe's results could be best characterized as better than feared, particularly in light of what we heard from Home Depot…”
— Drew Redding [02:07] -
Professional Contractors vs. DIY Focus & Strategic Growth
- Lowe’s has a sales mix of approximately 30% pro (contractor), 70% DIY, compared to Home Depot’s roughly 50-50 split.
- Recent acquisitions (Foundation Building Materials) signal Lowe’s shift to target larger pro clients and offer a wider array of building products.
- The “pro space” is described as a “battleground,” with both giants seeking growth primarily through acquisitions and expanding product lines.
Quote:
“What this acquisition does is it gives them exposure to larger pros who do more complex projects.”
— Drew Redding [03:18] -
Industry Fragmentation and Consolidation Outlook
- Despite Home Depot and Lowe’s being “behemoths,” the building products distribution industry remains “highly fragmented.”
- The guest foresees “further consolidation within the industry,” but highlighted competitors such as QXO.
Quote:
“I wouldn't be surprised to see further consolidation within the industry...”
— Drew Redding [04:27] -
Tariffs and Supply Chain Impact
- Lowe’s sources ~60% of its merchandise from the US, with China accounting for 15-20%.
- Q3 saw modest price increases (average ticket up ~3%), partly due to tariffs.
- More cost pressure is expected in Q4 and 2026, especially on items like lumber and cabinetry (tariffs on the latter could reach 50% in January).
- Both Lowe’s and Home Depot are expected to adjust pricing as tariff impacts escalate.
Quote:
“I do think that the impact gets a little greater as we look into next year. So I would expect further price increases from both retailers.”
— Drew Redding [06:12]
TJX Companies (TJ Maxx, Marshalls) Retail Update
Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence
[08:44 – 14:17]
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Retailer Appeal & Earnings Performance
- TJX’s appeal is broad: luxury and value shoppers alike can find preferred brands (Balenciaga to Puma).
- Recent results: Marmax (TJ Maxx and Marshalls) comp sales up 6%, overall corporate results up 5%, with “a lot of strength.”
- HomeGoods division also strong; Canadian stores saw 8% growth.
Quote:
“They carry such a variety of brands and it appeals to all income groups… That's why their Marmax… reported a comp sales increase of 6%.”
— Mary Ross Gilbert [09:08] -
Inventory Sourcing & Off-Price Model
- TJX’s inventory comes from both retailers’ offloads and directly from brands (e.g., PVH—Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein).
- Off-price remains a “natural channel” for excess inventory, including luxury goods due to weakened luxury retail.
Quote:
“Off price is just a natural fit to be able to release that inventory.”
— Mary Ross Gilbert [10:33] -
Consumer Trends & Execution
- Despite other retailers calling the consumer “cautious,” TJX’s strength comes from having in-demand brands and great execution.
- Value is a key driver, but some luxury brands like Ralph Lauren succeed with less promotion.
Quote:
“The consumer is flocking to value, there’s no doubt about it.”
— Mary Ross Gilbert [11:37] -
Growth Strategies: International Expansion
- TJX continues to grow, entering Spain in 2026 and leveraging joint ventures in Mexico and the Middle East.
- The company’s premium valuation attributed to consistently “curating” merchandise and drops several times a week, tailored to each store’s demographics.
Quote:
“There’s not a lot of retailers that offer fresh merchandise several times a week and they curate the merchandise by location.”
— Mary Ross Gilbert [13:10]
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Trends
Guest: Liz Hart, President of Leasing, Newmark
[17:12 – 23:43]
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Retail Real Estate Recovery
- Overall availability is at a low 5.3%; indoor malls and power centers are performing well.
- However, “half of what's available has been on the market for over 24 months,” reflecting a bifurcated market with some spaces not moving.
Quote:
“It’s a quite bifurcated story… half of it’s been on the market for over 24 months. So it's that bifurcated story. That stuff's not moving.”
— Liz Hart [17:34] -
Urban vs. Suburban Retail & Geographic Trends
- Suburban centers (e.g., Bellevue, WA) are thriving, while some urban centers see lingering vacancies due to post-pandemic patterns.
- West Coast remains “occupier friendly” (tenants are in control), while the Sun Belt sees landlords with the upper hand.
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NYC Office Market & Tech Sector Demand
- Trophy office buildings have <5% availability; high-end space is vibrant, while older/class B inventory lags.
- Notably, NYC is experiencing a tech industry influx, with growing demand for premium, “creative” office space.
- Tech companies are “choosing” to be in the office to foster productivity, with a focus on amenities and analytics.
Quote:
“It's growing as quickly as I’ve ever seen it in my 20-year career… They're able to build new companies… but why are they choosing to be in the office?… they're solving big problems and when they're doing it, they want to be doing it face to face.”
— Liz Hart [20:24] -
Industrial Space Trends
- Ongoing strength in industrial, especially “small bay industrial,” despite some increase in availability as supply catches up.
- “3PLs” (third party logistics providers) are significant market drivers, handling logistics and repositioning for clients.
Quote:
“Small bay industrial. Wow. What a hot part of the market.”
— Liz Hart [22:01] -
Best Market Segment (“Sun Belt” Success)
- Sunbelt and the Southeast quadrant are hitting on all cylinders for industrial, office, and retail real estate.
Quote:
“Sunbelt and southeast quadrant is where I would say is probably heading on all three at the same time.”
— Liz Hart [23:27]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Lowe’s Market Positioning:
“Lowe's has historically focused on the small and medium sized pro. And what this acquisition does is it gives them exposure to larger pros who do more complex projects.”
— Drew Redding [03:18] -
On Value Retail & The Consumer:
“The consumer is flocking to value, there’s no doubt about it.”
— Mary Ross Gilbert [11:37] -
On Tech’s Influence in Real Estate:
“You're having a little bit of an AI boom here in New York City. A lot of companies coming out for the West Coast that want to get into New York City's tech talent, which is bigger than it’s ever been.”
— Liz Hart [19:28]
Important Timestamps
- Lowe’s Earnings Recap: [01:54 – 06:23]
- TJX Retail Updates: [08:44 – 14:17]
- Commercial Real Estate Trends: [17:12 – 23:43]
Tone & Language
The episode maintains a conversational, analytical tone, blending data-driven insights with personal anecdotes and candid market assessments. The guests are expert but approachable, providing both macro perspective and specific, actionable company information.
For listeners:
This episode delivers a comprehensive update on major U.S. retailers’ performance and the state of commercial real estate—highly relevant for investors, market watchers, and business operators navigating a shifting retail and property landscape.