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Speaking of technology, piece of news that I thought was really interesting, Scarlett Microsoft saying, hey, we're not going to have as much, I guess, data center capacity as we thought. We're not going to have as much as we need until maybe sometime next year. It's just another data point that, as Jay was just pointing out, there's lots of ways to play AI, but money's being spent all throughout the economy, not just the tech stack.
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But there's still logjams nonetheless.
B
Yeah, still log jams nonetheless. So let's see what's going on with our good friends at Microsoft. Anurag Rana joins us, technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Again, what do you make of this Microsoft News, Anurag, that they say, you know, data center crunch is going to persist into 2026.
E
Yeah, you know Microsoft talked about a little bit of this in the Earnings call about let's say 12 months ago. Then they said things are easing or things improving and it does have an impact on the cloud business growth rate when things are tight. Now this news, I think it was an excellent article written by Bloomberg News and you know it gives us a lot of things to think about as to what's going to happen over the next 12 to 18 months. We think CapEx could go up, we think cloud realization of the rates could go down and you know, the AI boom is going to continue or the infrastructure boom is going to continue because if Microsoft needs more capacity it's going to go to people like Core, Weave, Naviers, Oracle. They're going to go to their, you know, companies that they work with to create the data centers and you know, the downstream effect of that. So positive news for the infrastructure space. But maybe has an impact on Microsoft's cloud growth rate.
A
Does it have an impact on Microsoft spending as well and how will that show up in the earnings when the company reports?
E
Yeah, I think it can have an impact on their gross margins. You may see it take down. They, they have said that, you know, that in next financial year, the next fiscal year they're going to spend more on capex than last year but the rate of growth is going to go down. Now they haven't given any figure so you can drive a big truck in that particular range because they are giving themselves the flexibility to say that. One could argue that the year after that now they're, you know, maybe they're going to spend even more so that really, you know, has an impact on the entire cycle. So that means Oracle has to spend more, that means Meta has to spend more, Amazon has to spend more and that, that continues this big boom of all the downstream companies we have anything from chips to you know, data center cooling and water, etc.
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What inning Anurag do you think we are in this AI tech build out?
E
I think we are in a fairly early innings because unlike software coding or you could say, you know, the, the build out of a new E commerce website, this one's going to take some time because every data center takes a long time to come up. I mean from breaking ground, getting permits to getting power to actually building it and putting it together, I mean it's a, it takes a few years for that to build out. So I do not see any reason why in five to seven years we're still not be talking about this topic.
A
You know when we come back to this data center crunch for Microsoft, is this a Zero sum game where it's Microsoft's loss for now in the short term as it builds these things out and its competitors gain and if so, what are the names that are likely to be most able to benefit?
E
No, I don't think it's anybody's gain in this point. So the crunch that they are having, I bet the same thing is happening with Google, same thing is happening with Metta and Amazon. They are all going out to these third party new cloud providers to see wherever they can find capacity and at the end of the day whoever has any capacity left, you know they will find a customer from one of these large vendors because what not only what they're doing is selling products to the third parties outside their internal processes. They are actually improving it as well. Somebody like a meta, they really are improving their ads ad business because of AI and they need more capacity because of that as well.
B
Earnings will be kicking off the season next week for the banks and then we'll get the tech companies a little bit later. What are you going to be listening for Anurag during this earnings cycle for your tech names?
E
It's a big tale of two cities. One side we're going to see an actual drop in discretionary spending. So any of the consulting names they're not going to have a good time. Any of the traditional Software names, even SaaS names, they're not going to have a good time because subscription growth is going to slow down. But on the other side somebody like a code weave or an Oracle or a Microsoft, they will talk about more bookings article is not going to report in this particular earnings season. But a month after that I think they will all see a good increase in the backlog or the order book. But the rest of the space I think is going to struggle.
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Once upon a time a lot of the companies benefited from the end of the year rush to use up the IT budget. You know every company had a certain amount of money allotted to spending on it and a lot of times companies didn't get around to using it until the fourth quarter and then they would do so in a big rush to. Do you see that happening this time around?
E
Yes, it would happen but only happen on the side of things. The non side of the tech spending, I think that's still going to struggle. We may not have a resolution of that in the global macro environment improves till we have a resolution between us China, trade war, did we know what's happening to interest rate? I think that part of the equation is going to struggle.
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Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence Coming up after this.
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Youm'Re listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. All right, let's turn now to a sector that of course is affected by tariffs directly, and that is the auto sector. Steve Mann is Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos and Industrials Research Analyst and he joins us now to talk about Stellantis. Stellantis. It's Chrysler, right?
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Paul, Jeep, Chrysler. All those good Brands.
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I always get confused because I see Stellantis, I'm like what company is this? I don't get it. In any case, its third quarter shipments climbed to 13% led by rise in North America. So there is a bit of a recovery here after the carmaker has been working down inventory in the U.S. steve, thanks for joining us. Let's talk a little bit about Stellantis and how sensitive vulnerable it is to President Trump's tariffs.
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Yeah, I think they are very sensitive to tariffs but I think a lot of the impact on companies like Stellantis and the Detroit trio is really their operations in Mexico and Canada. I think Trump is looking for them to actually move some of those production back into the US and employ more US workers. So I mean there's been a lot of rhetoric and a lot of, you know, potential changes, changes are impending. But I think for now auto tariffs, it's been pretty quiet and I don't think, you know, the, the Trump, you know, the tweets are, is going to impact the Detroit 3.
B
So where are we in terms of implementing tariffs on autos? Just incoming and coming in the US where are actually being levied at the moment?
C
Yeah, it's happening at the moment. We've heard a lot of news on, you know, companies moving production back to the US GM have moved some of their Silverado production, one of their highest profit vehicles, you know, from, from Canada back to the US So we're hearing that from Ford and some other automakers, you know, Hyundai is investing a lot in the U.S. you know, likely to move some of the production from South Korea into the US So we are already starting to hear and see the effects of those auto tariffs.
A
Steve, this might be an unanswerable question but with companies making the moves to do that, this will take a long time. This is a multi year process. Right. You don't just decide that you're going to reshore manufacturing, it happens the next day. Is just saying that you're going to do that enough to appease the administration.
C
Well, I look at it as a two phase process. There's what I call low hanging fruits. So for example, I gave earlier on the Chevrolet Silverado that GM shifted back to the US if they have spare capacity in the US that's a no brainer. They can shift that back quickly. But you're absolutely right, longer term it's going to take years to kind of unravel the North American supply chain chain to focus more on the US it's going to take years because you know Plants take years to build. And then you also have to bring back the suppliers. The suppliers rather produce their parts near the manufacturing, near the assembly plants rather than, you know, other, you know, in other countries where, you know, shipping costs, costs could be very high. So it could take, if not years, a couple of decades to actually turn that ship around.
B
So where is Stellantis just from a positioning perspective right now relative to the other automakers out there?
C
Yeah, Stellantis has been losing quite a bit of market share on their high, you know, the higher profit vehicles like the Ram trucks, the Jeeps. And you know, with the new CEO coming on board, you know, the shift, the strategy has shifted from more of achieving cost savings from the mergers that created Stellantis back in 2001 to more of an outreach. You know, how are we going to, how are they going to answer the demands of the consumer? They really want the V8 back, which is what they're doing. They're bringing that V8 Hemi back and you know, they'd also bring the midsize Jeep Cherokee back, which has been very popular with consumers.
B
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Let's talk about the consumer here. How's the consumer doing out there? There's lots of ways you can kind of get a sense for that. We talked to Mike Halen from Bloomberg Intelligence about how the restaurant traffic is doing. And we also can talk to Lindsey Dutch. She covers the consumer hardlines retail companies. She's a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Lindsey, let's talk like I know Dick's Sporting Goods, Ulta, you got a couple companies that are going to be reporting earnings coming up and what do you expect from these companies?
F
Yeah, thanks Paul, for having me. We are taking a look at sort of full year guidance going into the third quarter earnings and of course that important holiday shopping season. And what we've noticed is, you know, the guidance ranges are very, very wide for these retailers. It's baking in a lot of uncertainty surrounding the consumer. But when we look at the demand trends and sort of first half results, first half results were pretty solid for many of these hardline retailers. And we're seeing better demand in the beauty space, you know, better demand for electronics even and home furnishings, some categories that have really been struggling. And when I look at this guidance range, I sort of think that we might be able to trend sort of towards the middle upper half of the range if that demand can hang on through the second half into 2026.
A
Can that demand hang on if prices increase or the supply is limited? We're hearing again these headlines from President Trump that there could be a massive increase of tariffs on goods from Dick's Sporting Goods. Ulta Beauty certainly do rely on China for for their supply chain. So I'm curious whether that gets folded in.
F
So I think when we think about the second half, I think a lot of that inventory is already in place and there have been price increases that have occurred on that inventory. We're expecting to see that. We do think the shopper is going to come out a lot like they did last year, selective, value focused, but they're still willing to spend, you know, on certain things. And I think that, you know, the key draw there is, you know, anything that's new Nintendo Switch to, you know, anything exclusive or like a premium type product, you know, which does skew to addict sporting goods. I think when I think about the risk, you know, of these headlines that we're seeing, you know, Best Buy, you know, is responding to those headlines. I think if we see a big, much higher levy on goods from China, you know, that's something that they're going to have to address in the 2026 year. They have significantly reduced their exposure. You know, of those hardlines names we were talking about, Best Buy is probably the most exposed, 33% of COGS. But it's all indirect exposure. So it's not stuff that they're directly importing. It's just some of the inventory that they had on hand.
B
Lindsey, the companies you cover, the hardline retailers, what's their, I don't know if they have a collective view of how the consumer is doing out there. What do you, what are they telling you guys?
F
Yeah, again, I think what they're, what we've seen, and this is sort of going back all the way, you know, to last year's holiday season, is that newness is driving demand and that's no matter what the category. So like beauty electronics, we saw explosive demand for that Nintendo Switch to. But even in the sporting goods market, you know, new product or a premium type product is really drawing that consumer in, even if it's a higher price point. So consumers are definitely value focused, but they're making sacrifices. They're choosing to shop value on certain things and then they're splurging on other things. It's really hard to discern. But like I said, we've seen improvement broadly in the home furnishings category, also in electronics and then beauty, which kind of took a leg down last year. Year is looking a lot better this year.
A
Lindsey, talk a little bit about these companies and their efforts to make sure that the consumer stays with them no matter what happens, even if they can go to, say, TJ Maxx and get it for cheaper. Because they have these loyalty programs that tie the consumers so closely to their brand. Even as an aggregator, Dick's Sporting Goods does not sell its own branded merchandise. It sells Nike, it sells New Balance. But people go back repeatedly to the store, right?
F
Yeah, those loyalty programs, you know, for the retailers are great because that gives them a lot of data. They're customers that shop the most with them. You know, I think this is where, you know, assortment matters and exclusives matter. So, you know, Dick's smaller Pier Academy Sports, they have not seen the growth that Dick's is seeing and it's because they also carry Nike, but they might not carry the brand new Nike basketball sneakers for the season, whereas Dick's does. So the assortment, you really have to dive in and look at very specifically what some of these retailers have. They have to have that newest product. They have to have exclusive items where you can't go elsewhere to get it. And that is really key to keeping that customer back. I also think when you have a positive experience shopping at a retailer, you're going to go back to them as well for that customer service or whatever it is that they're providing to you that no one else can give you.
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Episode Title: Microsoft Forecasts Show Data Center Crunch Persisting Into 2026
Date: October 10, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney
Key Guests:
This episode centers on the ripple effects of Microsoft’s recent warning about persistent data center limitations—highlighting impacts across the AI boom, cloud infrastructure, and the broader tech economy. The hosts also examine auto industry reactions to proposed and enacted tariffs, and trends in consumer retail behavior as the 2025 holiday season approaches.
This episode provides vital perspective on the infrastructure realities underpinning AI and big tech—with Microsoft’s data center limitations serving as a case study for both the opportunities and constraints of the ongoing digital revolution. The conversation skillfully ties together supply chain strategy in autos and evolving consumer behaviors in retail, giving investors and professionals a holistic snapshot of Q4 2025’s business landscape.