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Co-Host
You know, let's get our consumer preferences straight here. I'm a Coke person. They put Pepsi in front of me. I'm just as happy. Same thing with the chocolate front. I I identify as a kid, say as a Hershey bar person, but you put a Nestle's Crunch in front of me, Boom. I'm very happy.
Host
I don't know about either of those. I'm snobby and I like European chocolate or Japanese chocolate. I don't like this Nestle stuff.
Co-Host
All right, well, I mean now John is just Reporting A slashing 16,000 jobs. I went to the DES function. They have 277,000 jobs, so not that big. But let's check in with Duncan Fox. He covers all the consumer staples stuff over there in the UK and Europe. He's at Bloomberg Intelligence. They had pretty good numbers, Duncan. But there's still this new CEO is taking some some headcount out. Talk to us about what you learned.
Duncan Fox
At Nestle when he certainly grabbed the headline with with sort of 16,000 headcount company as you said, it's 6% of the overall headcount, so it's not huge in the context of the group. But I think the main thing today was that there was not a nasty surprise in that you've had the second. He's the third CEO in, and obviously the chairman left about a month ago as well. So I think there was fears that maybe there was something underlying in the business that was going wrong. So the one and a half percent organic growth, albeit not huge, is a relief. And I think that's why the shares have really bounced today rather than the wonderful headline of the job cuts.
Host
Tell us a little bit more about this new CEO strategy. Overall, I'm curious whether he is rolling out something new completely or is he just kind of doubling down on the existing strategy that his predecessor had laid out?
Duncan Fox
I think he's doubling down. Excuse me. I think there's no doubt they were trying to become a lot more focused on their key brands, but he sort of broadened that out to the sort of the broader category. So rather than just looking at, say, cold coffee with Nescafe, he's putting it out to the whole of the coffee brands that they have. So he's definitely being far more aggressive on trying to make sure that the market share on their key brands goes up rather than sort of flat or down. And it looks like he's probably pulled forward some job cuts as well and push them into the year to 2027 rather than sort of keeping them maybe for later in sort of 28 and 29. So, yes, he's definitely, I think, accelerated the process that was probably being discussed anyway in the business.
Co-Host
Duncan, I'm just looking at the stock here, and over the last five years, Nestle's compounded annual return has been about negative 2 1/2% per year, lagging the Swiss index here. What's the story? What's the challenge for a company like Nestle with such a great brand?
Duncan Fox
Well, it's. It's such a big, big company in the food industry. It's got to innovate very, very quickly or it's going to die. They did quite a bit of vegan innovation about two, three years ago. Unfortunately, pretty much every one of those products failed because they just didn't taste very good. And I think, to be honest, that was. The industry had the same problem, not just Nestle. You've then got threat of GLP1 drugs coming through, so they pushed out a whole new bunch of products on that so that you can have them in conjunction with the drug that you're using so that you don't lose muscle mass and actually be malnourished. So there's a lot of things they need to do, but they've probably not done them quickly enough. And that's part of the problem. When you're such a huge you've got to make sure that innovation comes out straight away. You're first to market, it's at the right price and then you can win. And when you've had inflation that's been sort of 15, 20%, 2, 3 years on the trot because of costs, it's very, very difficult to get that right and get the pricing right so that we the consumer buys it consistently. And that's not just nothing. That's an industry issue which they have to address.
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Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence Coming up after this.
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Well, United Airlines reported better than expected earnings, citing demand for international travel and premium customers. United CEO Scott Kirby joined Bloomberg earlier this Morning breaking down 2025's earnings outlook.
Scott Kirby
First three quarters were really good for United in a lot of macro volatility that happened for the aviation industry. That demonstrates the resilience of our revenue diverse, brand loyal business model. But you look to the fourth quarter, it's even more exciting because as the economy started to get back to a solid footing, at least for aviation, demonstrates a lot of upside. We think we're going to be able to grow earnings for the full year even in this environment. So it really is creating value all of our customers.
Co-Host
All right, that was United CEO Scott Kirby, a graduate of the United States Air Force Academy. He joined Bloomberg earlier today breaking down the results for the company. Let's check in with George Ferguson. He covers the airlines and aerospace companies for Bloomberg Intelligence. George, what you make out of the United numbers here today and some of the commentary from Mr. Kirby.
Scott Kirby
Market looks pretty saturated. So what's that mean? A lot of capacity in the marketplace and fares are falling. So if you look at yields at all of United's markets, they're falling year over year. So the price paid per mile flown is falling anywhere from sort of 2ish percent in domestic up to mid single digits in international. Atlantic was a was a bright spot in prior quarters. Again down, I think it was roughly around 5% if I recall correctly. So they put enough capacity in that marketplace that fares are starting to fall. United grew at like 7% during the quarter. Capacity. It's pretty, that's pretty aggressive in an economy that's growing. I don't know, 2 to 3%. So I think that, you know, to Scott Kirby's benefit there and Delta as well, you know, the full service carriers are really having a good time of it lately. Loyalty programs are really, you know, putting some wind in, in their sales. Premium is still outperforming basic economy. Although it seems like it's, it's sort of, we're seeing the revenue growth from premium about the same as capacity growth, maybe a little bit less. Which tells me there's a little bit of price sort of, you know, weakness maybe starting to show up in that premium world. And basic economy still underperforming. That means Scott's competitors are going to get, are going to get banged up in the, in the budget world.
Host
Right? Competitors that are not named Delta specifically.
Scott Kirby
You got it.
Host
United is always mentioned in the same breath as Delta, but kind of as an also ran in comparison to Delta. What would United need to do to beat Delta at this premium premiumization strategy?
Scott Kirby
You know, Delta really gets a lot of revenue and more than United out of this. You know, the co branded credit card agreement. I think, you know, one Delta sort of in there with American Express. It's got, you know, maybe American Express lives in its own special world. If credit cards, I don't know, feels, you know, to me, I think most of the maybe younger consumers carrying around things like Visas and mastercards, I don't know but it seems like that agreement with American Express really drives a lot of revenue for Delta and I think is a big differentiator and I think Delta has used that as well as sort of, you know, their premium seating and lounges to put some distance. But when you look at the revenue number, it's all about that credit card agreement with amex.
Host
I'm so glad you bring this up because my current obsession is to look on Reddit and look at people who are talking about Amex Platinum versus the Chase Sapphire Reserve. These partnerships with credit card companies, building loyalty for these passengers. How costly is it for Delta to maintain this relationship with amex? How costly is it for United to maintain its relationship with Chase?
Scott Kirby
I think it's not costly. I think it's lucrative for them. Right. Because it seems to me that the American consumer, I don't know that I fully understand this, but it feels like people go out and buy the credit card for the airline they love. They go put all their groceries, all their Starbucks, all their dinners out on that card, take those points, accrue them for their summer vacation, pay $500 so they get Lounge Access, they're not like Paul Sweeney just get lounge access because who he is. So they got to pay for it. And so they're willing to spend and hold that card. And the credit card companies sort of taken down those, what, 4, 5% per transaction and buying those miles for the consumer, you know, those miles are, some of them do waste away. People don't use them in time. Others. Right. The airline provides you the opportunity to get a seat. They don't put all the, you know, they don't put all sort of benefit travel in one airplane.
Co-Host
Right.
Scott Kirby
They, they give you the opportunity in airplanes that aren't sold out to get benefit travel. So that kind of, you know, juices up their load factors. They upgrade you if they have space. So I think it's, I think it's super lucrative for the airlines. It's really important what credit card deal you cut right now.
Host
Yeah.
Scott Kirby
For your bottom line.
Host
How much do the airlines talk about this with analysts on their earnings calls, the intricacies of this.
Scott Kirby
So you're hearing, I mean look, nobody likes to give away the total intricacy, right. Because you know, they make it hard for us to figure out what the wastage numbers are, you know, but, but you can see how this flows to the bottom line quite well. But Delta and United talk about it a lot because it really works for them. Or maybe I should say talk about it the most in the industry because it really works for them. I think that it's telling that we do hear the budget low cost carriers talking about their loyalty programs too, but they just pale in comparison. They typically don't give us numbers, but they pale in comparison with what can get done up at Delta and United.
Co-Host
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Let's switch gears and take a look at tech. We can't stray too far from from tech given that it's the driver of this stock market rally. And today is once again the best performing sector as well, up 9. 10 of 1% led by the chip makers. And in large part that is because Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing TSMC has raised its outlook once again. And I say once again because it did it not so long ago. Mandeep Singh is Bloomberg Intelligence's Senior Tech Industry Analyst and joins us now. So it seems like very little is stopping TSMC's momentum.
Mandeep Singh
Yeah, and look, it's the Demand that gets reflected in TSMC margins, like gross margins nearing 60% for a fab maker. I mean, look at intel in its glory days. They were around 60 to 65% gross margin. So clearly TSMC is kind of hitting its stride from a gross margin perspective. But I think when it comes to tsmc, it's obvious to everyone, regardless of whether the accelerator is a GPU or a Broadcom custom chip, everyone has to go to TSMC to manufacture the chip. And you want to be in that sort of position because you don't want to pick, okay, is Nvidia demand going to sustain through 2030? And everyone is kind of trying to reach that point where they have a substitute for Nvidia. So even if there is a substitute, you still go to tsmc. And that's where I feel they are in an envious position when it comes to the moat that they have developed.
Co-Host
Is ASML the direct competitor to TSMC?
Mandeep Singh
No, ASML is one of their suppliers. So TSMC's CapEx goes to ASML and TSMC. By the way, they raise their revenue outlook. They also raise their capex because they're saying we need to expand capacity to fulfill all the demand that the 26 gigawatts that OpenAI has signed up for in the last one month. They need more capacity at TSMC and they need to buy more ASML equipment. So I think it's that chain where TSMC suppliers also benefit because of that insatiable demand.
Host
Okay, so TSMC plays this critical role in the supply chain, and I guess the idea is to get intel to become kind of like a tsmc. How long of an effort is that going to be? I mean, this is not something that can be done before the end of President Trump's term, is it?
Mandeep Singh
Well, so the way things work in the semiconductor manufacturing world is you go, you know, step by step. And intel, for the longest time under Pat Gelsinger, tried to jump, you know, three steps and directly go from like 12 nanometer to 5 nanometer. I see that didn't happen. So you really have to go step by step. And that's where intel has struggled, because there is no shortcut that you become a leading node manufacturer overnight. Even if you buy the best ASML equipment, it doesn't happen that way. And you need that expertise, both on the human talent side as well as the latest equipment, which is where intel faltered. So I don't see a shortcut. But that being said, there are parts of that AI chip ecosystem where intel may get some business if the government pressures, you know, all the hyperscalers and these guys to say, okay, you have to use intel capacity because we want to onshore manufacturing and that should help Intel.
Co-Host
All right, let me ask my question another way.
Duncan Fox
Yeah.
Co-Host
Who is the competitor to tsmc? Is there a viable competitor to TSMC today?
Mandeep Singh
Well, so intel is the closest competitor. On the foundry side you have.
Co-Host
Not very close.
Mandeep Singh
It's not very close. You have some Chinese foundry competitors too, which China wants to be self sufficient in everything they do. When it comes to the chip side from accelerators to manufacturing, they have their own foundry. But it's the same problem. Even if you switch to internal foundry, they are way behind in terms of leading node manufacturing. That's where how did we get here?
Co-Host
How did we get to a place if I'm the global, if I'm an Apple or whatever, how do I let my industry get to the point where I have to depend upon one supplier?
Mandeep Singh
Well, Apple helped them get there because before this wave happened, smartphones is where you needed the latest manufacturing capabilities. And Apple, I mean clearly they had such a big ramp when it comes to their smartphone installed base and they did the entire thing in Asia with the help of TSMC and Foxconn. So it's really led by Apple. Why you're here, they're chasing growth.
Host
I mean that's what you do. You go for the most efficient way possible. And that was tsmc.
Co-Host
Pretend that I know about technology.
Host
I just know. These are great questions. These are fantastic.
Co-Host
I mean I'm like John Tucker territory.
Host
Fortunately, we have Mandeep here with us. Mandeep, very quickly, just tell us about what's going on with Apple's AI efforts because every day it seems to be some other executive who was doing something. AI at Apple has moved on.
Scott Kirby
Yeah.
Mandeep Singh
And so Apple is great at making hardware, but when it comes to AI and they have missed the boat. And right now the researchers are saying Metta or Google has a lot more compute to offer in terms of, you know, being a researcher. And that's where, you know, all the deals that OpenAI is doing, that Meta is doing, it's basically getting the compute for the researchers, not for deploying AI, but for the researchers. So it's a great magnet for all the researchers to come in and, you know, use that compute.
Co-Host
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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& Co. You're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic options plays on the side. The point is, you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there plus an industry leading 3.8% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Crypto trading provided by BAKKT Crypto Solutions LLC. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosure introducing.
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Co-Host
The nice sleepy old transportation company. JBHT. JB Hunt, big, big trucking company, which is really, I think a great bellwether for just kind of where the economy is or how's commerce out there. You can track it by talking to some smart people who cover the whole logistics space, like Lee Klaskow for Bloomberg Intelligence. Lee, talk to us about JB Hunt. For those of our listeners and viewers that don't know J.B. hunt, tell us what this company does and why it's important.
Lee Klaskow
Yeah, sure. They're actually more than just a trucking company. They're really a diversified transportation provider and they have a lot of different business. Trucking is one of their businesses, their truckload business. And they also do and it's their biggest and most profitable is their intermodal business. So that is a container that will start on a truck and then goes on a rail and then it's final delivered by a truck. And they also, in addition to that, they have a final mile business. So think of getting your exercise equipment or furniture delivered to your home. They have a freight broker business which is kind of it, it brings together capacity providers and shippers. It's a non asset business and they also have a dedicated business. So a lot of companies will kind of outsource their fleet to companies like JB Hunt. So their hands are in a lot of different parts of the freight freight markets. And to your point, they, they are a bellwether because they do touch on so many different modes and industries.
Host
Who's their competitor? Who's our biggest competitor in doing all of this? Or is the market kind of split up based on geographic location?
Lee Klaskow
Sure. Well, there are companies that are similarly set up to J.B. hunt, like a Schneider, those are those orange trucks that you see on the road. But like a Werner, trucking company has a big dedicated business. C.H. robinson has is a huge brokerage business. Hub Group is another intermodal marketing company who does the intermodal stuff. So they have a lot of different competitors within the market. But some of the largest publicly traded trucking companies besides JB Hunt, Werner and Schneider are Heartland and Knight Swift are some of the large truckload carriers. And there's a whole subsegment of less than truckload, which JB Hunt plays very little. And it's only they're playing in their brokerage business.
Co-Host
So leave. Based upon your history covering the trucks, how do you look at them and their business models as is kind of reflective of maybe how the US economy is going?
Lee Klaskow
Well, you know what I would say is their stock is on fire right now. And that's really driven the fact that they outperformed in the third quarter. A lot of that has to do with them doing company specific company driven cost cutting measures. So it's not so much about the macro, it's kind of more about what is J.B. hunt doing. And they've increased their productivity or reduced cost by around $20 million, which added 16 cents to the bottom line and fuel that beat. You know what I would say though to the macro is we are pretty interested in management's comments on the peak season. So they are expecting a peak season this year, maybe not a very strong one, but we are going into the peak season. I think it's going to be pretty muted. We still kind of think that, but we'll see how it ends up playing. Our thoughts are the consumer is weakening, consumer confidence is going down and you had a lot of pull forward demand. And what J.B. hunt would say is some of that freight just got to the ports and now it needs to move inland. So we'll see what transpires. But you know, we're not expecting a very robust peak season this year.
Host
Paul, what were you saying earlier about turnover for JB Hunt drivers?
Co-Host
Yeah, the turnover is super, super high in the trucking industry. Lee, talk to us about the state of the, of that part of the business. Just I guess attracting and retaining drivers.
Lee Klaskow
Yeah, so it's really interesting. I'm going to pivot a little bit because you know, with the new, with people, they're not so new anymore with the Trump administration, they're really focused enforcing rules that are already on the books. And so, you know, there are certain standards that drivers have to have to understand, understand and read the English language. And they are really going out there and kind of enforcing those rules. You know, we had Werner CEO Derek Leathers on our podcast to do a podcast by the way, called Talking Transports.
Sponsor Voice
There you go.
Lee Klaskow
Well, wherever you get podcasts, very good. Anyway, and it, and he said that, you know, that could impact 5 to 15% of supply and truckload rates have been really depress over the last three years. We've been in a freight recession. A lot of that has to do with the fact that there's so much capacity out there and this could take some of that capacity out. Also there's something the DOT issues non domicile cdls. They are stopping doing that. And any non domicile cdls that get, try to get renewed are probably not going to get renewed.
Co-Host
So that's actually the driver's license, right?
Lee Klaskow
Yeah, for non US citizens. So you're going to see that kind of leave the market as well. And that could be the catalyst to tighten the market. And we don't think it's going to like flip on a dime. It's going to be gradual and that, and that is a good thing because the capacity that's been out there, the slack capacity has been really stubborn to get out of the market.
Host
What are the prices or what are the wages for a truck driver? I'm just curious, given all the challenges that you just explained.
Lee Klaskow
Yeah, well, most truck drivers get paid by the mile. I don't really know what the latest rate is. I think it's like 50 cents a mile or something like that. And so, you know, that's how they tend to get paid by the mile. And you know, being a truck driver, Paul, as you mentioned, there is a lot of turnover. A lot of that has to do with people get into the industry not really knowing what to expect. It is not an easy job. It's a tough job. It's an important job because obviously most of the things that you and I buy at the stores come via trucks and kind of moves the economy. It's very important to the economy. But it is a tough job because some of these jobs, these, these, these folks are away from their friends and families for, for weeks at a time. And so, you know, the industry is trying to do what it can to, you know, at least if you're a company driver, you know, trying to get them home as much as possible and at least having a schedule which they can rely on. So if they need to be somewhere, they know, you know, they'll be home in time to go to their daughter's wedding or their son's birthday party or something.
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Date: October 16, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney
This episode offers a deep dive into significant market and company news, with particular focus on Nestlé’s announcement of 16,000 job cuts under its new CEO. The hosts, along with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, explore the implications of this restructuring, analyze Nestlé’s performance and broader market context, and shift the conversation to influential trends in tech (TSMC and Apple), aviation (United Airlines), and trucking (JB Hunt). The discussion is direct, data-driven, and draws on expert guest analysis.
Segment: 02:04 – 05:46
"There was not a nasty surprise in that you've had...the third CEO in, and obviously the chairman left about a month ago as well. So I think there was fears that maybe there was something underlying in the business that was going wrong. So the one and a half percent organic growth, albeit not huge, is a relief."
— Duncan Fox, 02:29
"He's definitely being far more aggressive on trying to make sure that the market share on their key brands goes up rather than sort of flat or down...he's definitely, I think, accelerated the process that was probably being discussed anyway in the business."
— Duncan Fox, 03:26
Nestlé’s negative returns in recent years (-2.5% annualized) reflect wider big-food struggles:
"They did quite a bit of vegan innovation about two, three years ago. Unfortunately, pretty much every one of those products failed because they just didn't taste very good."
— Duncan Fox, 04:31
Persistent inflation (15-20% for 2-3 years) complicates pricing and innovation for both Nestlé and the wider consumer staples industry.
Segment: 08:33 – 14:27
Scott Kirby (United CEO):
George Ferguson (BI Airlines/Aerospace Analyst):
Delta’s Amex deal is a “big differentiator” and a crucial profit engine; United does similarly well with Chase.
"When you look at the revenue number, it's all about that credit card agreement with Amex."
— George Ferguson, 11:18
The analyst explains loyalty credit cards are lucrative, not costly—the airlines are paid by the card companies for miles, many of which go unused; unsold seats can be filled with reward travelers at low incremental cost.
"It seems to me that the American consumer...people go out and buy the credit card for the airline they love...take those points, accrue them for their summer vacation, pay $500 so they get Lounge Access..."
— George Ferguson, 12:26
Segment: 17:19 – 22:57
Mandeep Singh (BI Senior Tech Analyst):
"TSMC is kind of hitting its stride from a gross margin perspective...regardless of whether the accelerator is a GPU or a Broadcom custom chip, everyone has to go to TSMC to manufacture the chip."
— Mandeep Singh, 17:52
TSMC CapEx is up—suppliers like ASML benefit as well.
Intel is TSMC’s only “close” competitor in foundry, but years behind on leading process nodes.
"There is no shortcut that you become a leading node manufacturer overnight. Even if you buy the best ASML equipment, it doesn't happen that way."
— Mandeep Singh, 19:52
China’s foundries are also lagging in advanced chipmaking, pushing tech giants (like Apple) into global supply chain dependency.
"Apple is great at making hardware, but when it comes to AI and they have missed the boat. And right now the researchers are saying Meta or Google has a lot more compute to offer..."
— Mandeep Singh, 22:26
Segment: 25:48 – 32:20
"Their stock is on fire right now. And that's really driven [by] company specific company driven cost cutting measures...not so much about the macro..."
— Lee Klaskow, 28:22
Driver turnover in trucking is extremely high due to working conditions and enforcement of English proficiency regulations.
"They are really going out there and kind of enforcing those rules...that could impact 5 to 15% of supply..."
— Lee Klaskow, 29:44
Wages generally paid by the mile; work/life balance and driver retention are persistent industry headaches.
“I think the main thing today was that there was not a nasty surprise...the shares have really bounced today rather than the wonderful headline of the job cuts.”
— Duncan Fox, 02:29
"When you're such a huge company, you’ve got to make sure that innovation comes out straight away. You're first to market, it's at the right price and then you can win."
— Duncan Fox, 04:31
“Delta really gets a lot of revenue and more than United out of this...credit card agreement.”
— George Ferguson, 11:18
“TSMC is kind of hitting its stride from a gross margin perspective...everyone has to go to TSMC to manufacture the chip. And you want to be in that sort of position...”
— Mandeep Singh, 17:52
"Apple is great at making hardware, but when it comes to AI and they have missed the boat."
— Mandeep Singh, 22:26
"[JB Hunt] are a bellwether because they do touch on so many different modes and industries."
— Lee Klaskow, 26:16
| Segment | Start | End | |------------------------------------------------|---------|---------| | Nestlé restructuring & CEO strategy | 02:04 | 05:46 | | United Airlines earnings & loyalty economics | 08:33 | 14:27 | | TSMC, Intel, Apple AI tech analysis | 17:19 | 22:57 | | JB Hunt, US freight & trucking trends | 25:48 | 32:20 |
This Bloomberg Intelligence episode unpacks why Nestlé’s job cuts—while headline-grabbing—are less about panic and more about accelerating a long-brewing streamlining process under a new CEO bent on sharpening the focus on core brands. The episode goes on to break down how loyalty programs and credit card deals underpin the profits of US airlines like United and Delta. A deep tech segment explains TSMC's near-monopoly on advanced chip manufacturing and Apple’s lagging status in the AI arms race. Finally, analysts use JB Hunt as a real-time barometer of the American economy, spotlighting cost cuts, labor issues, and regulation in trucking.
The show provides a blend of strategic insight and concise company commentary—ideal for listeners who want actionable perspective on big market moves.