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Host 2
People are looking for a turnaround in Nike, particularly in China. The stocks trading up slightly here today. Let's break down the numbers with Poonam Goyal, Senior US E Commerce and Retail Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Putam, you've been highlighting that Nike's in the middle of this turnaround tier. Talk to us about what you learned from their earnings in a conference call.
Poonam Goyal
There were a few things. The turnaround is still very much underway and it's not full recovery yet or anywhere close to it as if they cut their forecast or I guess said that sales were going to deteriorate further in the first half of their fiscal year, down by low to mid single digits in the first quarter and then down further in the second fiscal quarter. So that was a clear negative, but it was due to tougher comparisons from a year ago when they reentered wholesale in a more meaningful way and had higher digital promotions in emea. That said, on the quarter and to answer the first part of your question, Paul, just China was better than expected but still down 17%. So what I would say is, you know, still a lot of work to be done in China and it's not going to be an overnight fix. It will take 12 to 18 months.
Host 1
12 to 18 months sounds like a long time. Is there anything that Nike can do or Elliot Hill can do to kind of change the narrative more dramatically?
Poonam Goyal
I think there's a lot of things that need to be done. If you think about the U.S. turnaround and what happened in the U.S. the first thing is to right size inventory and that takes time, it takes 12 months, sometimes longer just to make sure that you can exit out of old inventory and bring in new product. The other thing is in China they need to bring Nike back to being a premium brand and work with the local endorsers, the local market to really create exclusive product for the China marketplace. So there is a lot of work to be done. I think at their analyst meeting in mid November, they'll highlight a path to profitable growth in China. But once again it's, it's not going to be in the very near, near future that we see that happen.
Host 2
So from your, your perspective, you've covered the company for a while. Have they kind of lost their feel for the market? If they lost kind of their magic a little bit or is just just blocking and tackling?
Poonam Goyal
It's just blocking and tackling. They definitely haven't lost their magic. I think they're doing all the right things. I think it's a big ship to turn and it just needs time. And I know investors are getting impatient, but I do think that they've worked on north, it's working. China is next and I do think they'll right size China too. It's just a matter of time and things will start to move as long as they continue to push out innovation which they're working on. So I think we just need to give them a little more time still.
Host 1
How about the rest of the world? I mean, I see Nike, Nike's brand, and you know, discussion of Nike pickup now that it's the World cup in North America. And I wonder if that is providing a bit of a tailwind for the brand around the rest of the world, given that the World cup is such a global enterprise.
Poonam Goyal
Absolutely. You know, Nike is premiumly positioned in the World cup and I think it will get tailwinds from the World Cup. I also think that sports is an important moment for not just Nike, but for all athleisure brands. So their presence in the sports world at sporting events, not just for kit sales, but really going even beyond kit sales, really earns them the right to magnify sales in other verticals. So I do think the World cup is a big opportunity for Nike.
Host 2
And, you know, Nike's like, it's like Coca Cola. I mean, you find Nike and their branding and their logo in every single corner of the world. I don't care where you are. It's just amazing. Is there a way, do you think, are they think. Do they think about ways to continue to broaden the monetization of their brand?
Poonam Goyal
Yeah, look, Nike is the largest sportswear brand in the world and it has a large lead over most other peers. So I think you will continue to see Nike throughout the world. I think women's is a big opportunity for them. I think it's one area where you probably don't see Nike in as much of a lead as it has been for men's. So I do think that there's more opportunity to even make Nike bigger across the globe.
Host 1
So when you look ahead, how much can a company like Under Armour or these other brands that are trying to become global sports behemoths in the same way that Nike has and perhaps you know, is trying to regain, can learn from, from the journey that Nike's been on? I mean, it's, it's been up, it's been down, and now it's kind of trying to climb its way back up again.
Poonam Goyal
I think the biggest learning, learning that any company could have from Nike is you can't get too comfortable. Right? You have to keep the pedal moving on innovation because the consumer is responding and they're able to discover more today than they ever were with the Internet, with social media, etc. So to lead and to continue to lead, you have to remain on top of your game at all times. And innovation is key there.
Host 1
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Host 2
Let's talk about the global energy markets. We do that with Ellen Wall, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and president of Transversal Consulting. Now, what Tom Keene likes to do is see somebody says, oh, you went to Princeton. Did you study under so and so and so and so? I have no idea. When I see somebody who went to Princeton, I say, ellen, what was your go to sandwich at hoagie?
Ellen Wall
Haven't. Well, since I generally vegetarian, so.
Nick Wadhams
So you did not lettuce sandwich.
Host 2
Yeah, exactly, lettuce. But some people disappoint on that hill about their favorite sandwich there. What are we talking about? Oil here is. Is all the risk out of oil at this point, I'm looking at WTI crude oil, Ellen, at, you know, below $69 a barrel. We're kind of kind of getting back to where we were.
Ellen Wall
We're kind of getting back to where we were, but the market doesn't actually look like that. It's just the futures prices. If you look at what's going on in not just in the United States, but around the world, we're not seeing anywhere near normal tanker volume. Yes, some oil is getting out of the Strait of Hormuz, but it's nowhere near normal. We're also seeing a lot of gaps in US Products. We've been doing a huge amount of exporting during this time. And so now we're seeing, yes, futures prices are down, but refineries are running out at full tilt. Our inventories are extraordinarily low. There was a slight build in the Cushing inventories in Oklahoma, but overall, our oil inventories are way, way, way down. And that really eliminates the kind of cushion that we've had in the event of, say, any kind of outage. So we're really kind of, I would say, running on the edge here. But it also doesn't look good for us crude oil drillers because they put in more rigs and we have. Production has actually grown and yet prices are now down. So they've brough rigs online only to find that the prices now drop. So we're in kind of a very odd situation where we're trying to normalize and yet we can't. And so some things have normalized, like futures prices, but everything else is still way out of. Out of whack.
Host 1
Okay, so the point remains, though, that the president is pushing gasoline retailers to do more to bring down gas prices for John Tucker when he does drive into the city.
Poonam Goyal
What does.
Host 1
What can the White House really do at this point?
Ellen Wall
Essentially, unless they want to institute price controls, nothing. And they definitely shouldn't institute price controls. The point is this, this happens every time we have some kind of a price spike. Prices immediately go up in gasoline and they're slower to come down. And part of this has to do with just the way things work, and part of it also has to do with the fact that we, while futures prices have come down, that's not necessarily reflective of the price that, that all of the people that make the gasoline are paying for the components and what they have to do to get them to your car. And so it's not. The price of a barrel of oil does not automatically translate to the price of a gallon of gasoline. And so there's a lag between that. Yes, we should expect it to come down, assuming that our refineries continue to run unobstructed. We may have outages. It's extraordinarily. It's going to be extraordinarily hot in some parts of the country. And that can also put pressure on refineries. They may not be able to operate at full capacity. So prices will come down, but it's going to be a slower process.
Host 2
So President Trump took to social media to kind of put some blame on the gasoline retailers for not charging, you know, not dropping their prices with the price of oil here. But my Phillips 66 station that I go to en route 35, is that retailer a price setter or a price taker?
Host 1
Good question.
Ellen Wall
That's a good question. So some, you know, some retailers are, you know, components of a larger, you know, oil organization, and some are more independent. And so it really, it really varies. And I would say that right now, it's just that there is a very, there's just a large gap in terms of what retailers might be paying for a barrel of oil and then what they can charge for, for gasoline. And so that will normalize. It's just a little bit higher now. However, it might not normalize if we go back to war with Iran, for example, which is something that they have been discussing. At least we've heard from Vice President J.D. vance that there's definitely, it seems like there's a mindset of let's kind of take this breather and refill, but this conflict is not over. And that certainly sends a message to refineries, it sends a message to producers, it sends message to everyone along that, that supply chain of, you know, the danger is not over. You need to continue to prepare for outages, shortages. And we're definitely not in that position. So it could cause some higher prices to remain. It could cause some stickiness simply because, you know, retailers want to make sure, hey, we want to make sure we can get those barrels. We're going to, you know, store them instead of putting them on the market.
Host 1
For example, Ellen, when it comes to the street of Hormuz, is, is that, is that waterway open or not? Iran said a foreign container ship ran aground while sailing through the strait through a so called unauthorized route. Are there unauthorized routes and authorized routes? I'm confused as to whether this thing is open or not.
Ellen Wall
I think everyone is a bit confused. I guess I would say the answer to that question depends on what open is and what your definition of open is. If you're talking about open as in the way things were before the war, the answer is absolutely not. Apparently that that waterway, which is actually has a defined, you know, traffic separ separation scheme is apparently has potentially a high number of mines in it and so ships really need to avoid that. So there's the upper route, the northern route, which goes basically through Iranian waters. That's the so called authorized route that the IRGC is policing and monitoring and all that. And then there's a lower route which goes through Omani waters, which seems to be a route that the US Military is using to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. It's unclear how many have come back in that route. Maybe, maybe some. But the Iranians do not want that lower route to be used. The Omanis have been giving a lot of conflicting information. They say, yes, it's open, we're not going to charge tolls. And they go and they say the Iranians, yes, we're working with the Iranians to set up this system to charge. It's really, I think, a very fluid situation. It depends on who's got the ships, who's got the fire, you know, the air cover. We don't really know. It's kind of the wild west out there.
Host 1
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Support for the show comes from public.com. if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip manually sweeping idle cash Putting on a hedge on Public you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures when you own your
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own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hard working rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this Pay in Full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level, fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits and more. Make every journey more rewarding with a $300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges. Whether you're looking for pre flight productivity or time to rest and recharge, Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business it's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more@chase.com ReserveBusiness Chase for Business make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC.
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Host 2
Looking at gasoline here $3.85 is the daily national average gasoline prices for regular which is what I use. Matt Miller is very upset with me. I says I'm supposed to be using like the really good stuff.
Host 1
What the premium?
Nick Wadhams
Yeah.
Podcast Announcer
Only.
Host 1
Only car heads like Matt Miller pay premium.
Host 2
I know but so but everyone else
Host 1
gets the cheapest unleaded.
Host 2
Yeah, it does I don't know. But then if you go to electric, maybe it doesn't even matter anymore.
Host 1
Hybrid, where you don't have to fill up as often.
Host 2
Yes. And that's what we have for offspring. Number four, who goes to school in California and they pay like a gazillion dollars a gallon there, so it made sense. Let's check in with Andrew Grant, Bloomberg Nef head of Intelligent Mobility, and get his thoughts on what's going on there with the electric vehicle business going forward. Andrew, electric vehicles, I think it's safe from my perspective at least. The narrative has been the industry maybe got a little bit too far out over its skis and trying to convert from ICE to ev. Where are we now, do you think, as an industry?
Andrew Grant
Right, thank you. Good time for that question. Just two weeks ago we published our annual flagship electric vehicle outlook. So lots of data to share on that front. Doubt this year is less exuberant than previous years, as you were kind of alluding to there, but generally speaking, the charts still go up and to the right. This is the second year that we've had to cut both our near term and long term outlook for EV adoption. But that really varies by market as you go from different geography to geography. The biggest negative is in the US where there's been lots of regulatory setbacks, weaker fuel economy rules, California losing its ability to set its own air quality standards, and subsequently automakers have pushed back a lot of their launch plans for electric vehicles. But global electric vehicle sales are still expected in, at least in our outlook, to reach over 23.3 million vehicles this year. That's 11% up from last year. Slower growth, but still pretty strong growth and representing about 27% of global passenger vehicle sales by the end of the year.
Host 1
Okay, so the US might be turning away from EVs, but the rest of the world most certainly is not. I've been trying. I've been in the market for a used hybrid, not a plug in, but a regular hybrid for my parents. I want something with low mileage and I've been going to different car lots and it's been really hard to find hybrids for whatever reason. Maybe because everyone's looking for it with the recent spike up in gas prices. And so I guess my question to you, Andrew, is if it's so hard to find hybrids, is that because a lot of the automakers are not offering them? I know that Toyota and Honda are kind of the leaders when it comes to hybrids, but, you know, have the big US Automakers kind of caught up with this at all.
Andrew Grant
I mean, hybrid certainly something we cover in the report. We focus primarily on vehicles with a plug, but hybrids are a big part of the story. They can reduce emissions by anywhere from 10 to 30% depending on the type of technology that you're talking about. And it has proved particularly popular in certain markets, the U.S. japan as well. A lot of the vehicles are the hybrid vehicles are coming from Japan. But really probably something that was considering in addition to the fuel price and the fuel savings there is just how well some of these vehicles hold up in the used vehicle market. We've seen residual prices for hybrids hold up quite a lot better than some of the battery electric vehicles. That is improving over time. But you're getting more return when you come to sell your vehicle in most markets. So that's certainly pushing things up in that market. It'll take kind of another decade or so in our outlook before battery electric vehicles start out selling hybrid vehicles in the United States. But in markets like China and Europe, metro electric vehicles are already outselling those hybrid vehicles.
Host 2
Dana, in those markets you talk about where there is successful adoption to electric vehicles. How much government subsidies? What's the role the government subsidies play? How long do governments have to support these programs?
Andrew Grant
I mean, that's the question that government officials ask us quite a bit. How much do they have to provide upfront purchase incentives and then how long do they have to provide other incentives around charging infrastructure build out? There's certainly a lot of money that is flowing into this space. By our count, there's about $940 billion that are being spent on electric vehicles this year. As far as upfront incentives, a lot of those are starting to go away in various geographies around the world. Even in China, where there is significant EV uptake, that's becoming quite an expensive burden to bear. So a lot of those upfront purchase incentives are going away. And that's part of the reason we see growth slowing for just a bit in in that market, which has a significant impact on our outlook. But we'll see if that kicks on from from here. There's already been $114 billion spent on charging infrastructure. By our count, that needs to increase by another $635 billion between now and 2040 to to meet the charging infrastructure demand outlook. So a lot more needs to be needs to be spent. A lot more incentives that come as part of that as well.
Host 1
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Venture Global Advertiser
Never bet against American Grit or American Energy through innovation. Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
Host 2
Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on Public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English, like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
Host 1
when you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business Card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale. This Pay in Full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level, fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, Annual partnership credits and more. Make every journey more rewarding with a $300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges. Whether you're looking for pre flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserved for business, it's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more@chase.com reservebusiness chase for business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC.
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Host 1
The US US deciding against renewing its trade deal with Canada and Mexico. The USMCA choosing instead to conduct annual reviews of the pact. Let's bring in Nick Wadhams. He is joining us from Washington right now. Nick, this sounds incredibly disruptive, this idea that the three countries would conduct annual reviews of the pact rather than, you know, figure out what they want and kind of hold to a treaty the way that we've done in the past.
Nick Wadhams
Yeah, I mean, it's important to note that the USMCA does remain in effect for now. But what you essentially see is President Trump injecting a new way to sort of push the US Negotiating position. I mean, listen, you know, USMCA was a landmark of his first administration. He called it one of the greatest deals ever made. But he found in the second term that this was really an impediment to his desire to impose surviving of broad tariffs on certain sectors of the economy with Canada and Mexico. The. The agreement essentially acted as a shield against that. So what you're going to see, I think, is the USMCA remaining in effect, but the president trying to chip away at it and indeed, automakers. There's a lot of sectors that are really going to be impacted by this and are going to feel the squeeze.
Host 2
Why is the US Doing this, Nick, do you think?
Nick Wadhams
Well, I think the big thing is tariffs. Trump really likes tariffs. Tariffs have been a huge weapon in his arsenal in the second term. And the USMCA essentially means that he can't really inject or impose tariffs on certain sectors of trade having to do with two massive U.S. trading partners, Canada and Mexico. So he wants to figure out ways to either change the terms of the deal, there will be these rolling negotiations over time so he can get what he would potentially see as more favorable terms than the ones he negotiated, you know, six years ago. But generally it doesn't allow him to tariff sectors of the economy and get rid of those trade deficits that he so despises.
Host 2
So would it be if for some. To me, it kind of feels like the USMCA has lost most, if not all of its teeth, that one could argue. There really is an agreement. Everybody's all three countries. I mean, Canada and Mexico presumably could be open to trade sanctions, tariffs at any point now.
Nick Wadhams
Right. I mean, your question really points to the big issue here, which is there is so much we don't know about what happens next. Because, you know, what is clear is that USMCA does remain in effect for now. But that hasn't stopped the president in the past from saying, okay, I'm going to impose these tariffs. So there are plenty of scenarios where he could basically contravene the terms of the USMCA and say, I'm going to impose tariffs on certain sectors of the economy, on certain elements of trade that I don't like, and that may violate the usmca, but we can leave that for the courts to decide. And in the meantime, I'm going to impose those tariffs. So, you know, even if we're still trying to get a sense for the details and what it means, it's definitely a situation that is not going to be welcomed by Canada or Mexico and is going to really have an impact on automakers, all sorts of other importers into the US from these two countries, countries who might say, okay, hey, we're going to hold off investment for now until we see the way things shake out.
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Host 2
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Episode: Nike Sees Weakness Persisting; US Decides Against Renewing USMCA
Date: July 1, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney & Scarlet Fu
Featured Guests: Poonam Goyal (Bloomberg Intelligence), Ellen Wall (Atlantic Council), Andrew Grant (BloombergNEF), Nick Wadhams (Bloomberg)
This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence dives into four major topics impacting global investment landscapes:
Insights are presented through interviews with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts and expert commentary, with an emphasis on actionable information for investors and industry watchers.
Guest: Poonam Goyal, Senior US E-Commerce and Retail Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Guest: Ellen Wall, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council & President, Transversal Consulting
Guest: Andrew Grant, Head of Intelligent Mobility, BloombergNEF
Guest: Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg Reporter, Washington
| Topic | Guest/Expert | Segment Start | Highlights | |---------|------------------------|--------------|--------------------------------------------------| | Nike | Poonam Goyal | 02:19 | China slump, turnaround efforts, brand strategy | | Oil | Ellen Wall | 10:38 | Supply risks, refinery strain, price confusion | | EVs | Andrew Grant | 20:25 | Slower US growth, hybrid resurgence, China leads | | USMCA | Nick Wadhams | 28:43 | Tariff risks, annual reviews, manufacturing loss |
This summary delivers an in-depth look at four crucial business and economic trends, compiling actionable intelligence and expert analysis for investors, policymakers, and business professionals.