Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Novo Next-Generation Obesity Shot Falls Short of Lilly Rival
Date: February 23, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlett Fu
Main Guests: Sam Fazeli (Pharma), Michael Halen (Restaurants), Mary Ross Gilbert (Retail), Holly (Litigation Analyst)

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence delves into competitive developments in pharma, the retail impact of tariffs, Domino’s Pizza’s performance, and the legal landscape after a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. Anchored by Paul Sweeney and Scarlett Fu, Bloomberg’s in-house experts unravel recent headlines affecting major sectors, focusing first on Novo Nordisk’s disappointing new obesity drug results when compared to Eli Lilly, and later transitioning to retail/restaurant earnings and tariff litigation changes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Pharma Update: Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly in Obesity Drugs

Guest: Sam Fazeli, Director of Research, Global Industries & Senior Pharma Analyst
[Timestamps: 02:01 – 05:41]

• Novo Nordisk’s New Drug Falters:

  • Novo’s next-gen obesity shot, “cagri-sema,” showed 20.2% mean weight loss after 84 weeks, falling short of Eli Lilly’s rival drug “tirzepatide” with 23.6% [02:01].
  • Quote:

    “The trial was set up…to test one drug against the other and it failed. Right. …they do the number of patients to prove that cagri-sema is as good as tirzepatide. It didn’t prove that.” — Sam Fazeli [02:52]

• Investment/Economic Impact:

  • Novo shares dropped 16%, underperforming for the fifth straight day [02:01].
  • Eli Lilly now has a marketing advantage:

    “It’s handed the gift to Eli Lilly…they should be able to sell as much as they can make.” — Sam Fazeli [03:43]

• Why Did Novo Lose Ground?

  • Organizational culture wasn’t blamed; rather, strategic choices and a bit of “luck” for Lilly played key roles [04:19].
  • Quote:

    "Lilly took a calculated risk…Nobody thought GIP would do what it did. So they were lucky. ... Novo never went down that road, even since 2018 when we all saw the first data run." — Sam Fazeli [04:19]

  • Novo chose amylin combinations, while Lilly supercharged with the dual incretin approach (GLP-1 + GIP).

2. Merck Divides Its Pharma Business

[Timestamps: 05:41 – 07:45]

• Strategic Move:

  • Merck is splitting its pharma unit for more focused R&D and to manage patent expiry on its biggest seller.
  • AstraZeneca’s successful two-division approach cited as a parallel [05:58].
  • No plans for a public spinoff; it’s an internal reorganization [07:05].

• Significance for Oncology:

  • If Keytruda’s patents last longer (potentially until 2033), the oncology division stands to benefit significantly [07:05].

3. Domino’s Pizza: Value, Innovation, and Franchise Relations

Guest: Michael Halen, Senior Restaurant and Food Service Analyst
[Timestamps: 08:47 – 12:27]

• Performance Highlights:

  • Domino’s stock outperformed with a 2.4% rise, driven by better-than-expected sales and innovations like stuffed crust pizza [08:47].
  • Expanded on DoorDash & Uber Eats while retaining its own delivery network, driving economic efficiencies [09:37].

• Economics of Delivery:

  • In-house delivery is at least half as expensive as third-party delivery for Domino’s [10:45].
  • Quote:

    “For chains that already have a delivery network like Domino’s, it’s really a no brainer.” — Michael Halen [10:45]

• Franchise Relations & Pricing:

  • Domino’s increased supply prices and fees, but mitigates tension by sharing profits monthly with franchisees [11:33].
  • Expected low single-digit commodity inflation, with half of supply chain profit increases shared [11:33].

4. Tariff Relief and Apparel Retailers

Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, Senior Equity Analyst (Retail)
[Timestamps: 12:57 – 18:16]

• Supreme Court Tariff Ruling:

  • Partial relief after the court struck down certain reciprocal tariffs, equating to ~25% savings for apparel retailers (20–50 bps margin boost) [13:29].
  • Retailers have mitigated tariff effects via supplier negotiation, diversifying out of China, and selective price hikes [13:29].

• Complexity of Rebates:

  • Prospect of tariff rebates is seen as non-viable due to administrative complexity [15:26].

  • Net impact figures:

    • Gap (100–110 bps), Abercrombie (170 bps), American Eagle (200–225 bps) per year [16:57].

  • Quote:

    “I can’t imagine that a rebate process could actually go into effect. ...I think we just have to let whatever tariffs were already enforced and the funds received.” — Mary Ross Gilbert [15:26]

5. Unpacking the Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

Guest: Holly, Bloomberg Intelligence Litigation Analyst
[Timestamps: 19:47 – 25:46]

• What’s Left to Litigate:

  • Now attention turns to whether companies can get refunds for tariffs already paid—potentially via Customs protests or lawsuits [20:15].
  • Ongoing tariffs (e.g., steel, autos, “301” China tariffs) are unaffected.

• De Minimis Exemption Unanswered:

  • The status of low-value import exemptions remains an open legal question [21:04].

• Practicality for Importers:

  • It’s unclear if, or how quickly, companies will pursue refunds—many may opt out due to deadlines or limited gains [22:59].

• Major Supreme Court Finding:

  • The Court ruled that only Congress can authorize taxes/tariffs; the President’s powers under the statute were too vague [24:38].
  • Quote:

    “They said that this statute doesn’t allow tariffs at all. So any tariffs that is imposed via this statute are probably going to be struck. ...a tariff is a tax and only Congress has the power to tax.” — Holly [24:38]

  • “Well-settled” authorities like Section 232/301 are more legally secure, so newer tariffs may withstand future challenges.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s handed the gift to Eli Lilly…they should be able to sell as much as they can make.” — Sam Fazeli [03:43]
• “For chains that already have a delivery network like Domino’s, it’s really a no brainer.” — Michael Halen [10:45]
• “I can’t imagine that a rebate process could actually go into effect. ...That could turn into a nightmare.” — Mary Ross Gilbert [15:26]
• “They said that this statute doesn’t allow tariffs at all. So any tariff that is imposed via this statute are probably going to be struck.” — Holly [24:38]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:01] Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly Obesity Shot Results & Market Impact
• [05:41] Merck’s Pharma Unit Split
• [08:47] Domino’s Pizza Sales, Strategy & Franchise Management
• [12:57] Tariff Relief Ruling & Retail Margins
• [19:47] Tariff Litigation Outlook Post-Supreme Court Ruling

Tone and Style

The discussion is analytical and data-driven, with some lighthearted banter among the hosts. The tone remains professional, focused on the investment and operational implications for companies in pharma, restaurants, and retail, with accessible explanations for intricate legal and economic issues.

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