Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: Nvidia-Google AI Chip Rivalry Escalates

Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Featured Analysts: Mandeep Singh, Lindsey Dutch, Mary Ross Gilbert, Diana Rositopena

Episode Overview

This episode dives into two key segments:
1. The escalating competition between Nvidia and Google in the AI chip market — particularly as Meta considers diversifying its suppliers.
2. Retail and consumer staples coverage, analyzing earnings and strategies of major retailers like Dick’s, Best Buy, Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, and food giant J.M. Smucker.

Throughout, the Bloomberg Intelligence team breaks down the implications for investors, market share shifts, and the technological and macroeconomic forces shaping these industries.

1. Nvidia vs. Google: The Battle for AI Chip Supremacy

Main Discussion: Meta's Reported Talks to Buy Google AI Chips
[02:01–07:42]

Key Points

• Meta’s Enormous Capex Plans:

  • Mark Zuckerberg has announced Meta plans to spend up to $600 billion in capital expenditures (capex) through 2028 ([02:33]).
  • Such massive spending makes relying solely on one supplier (Nvidia) untenable; diversification is critical for hyperscalers.

• Changing AI Tech Landscape:

  • Nvidia’s GPUs dominate AI training workloads and hold a near-monopoly for this use.
  • On the inferencing side, hyperscalers without proprietary chip designs are seeking alternatives.
  • Meta considering Google as a supplier is “a reflection of the changing tech stack and how these companies are evolving with AI” (Mandeep Singh, [02:33]).

• Google’s Secret Progress — Tensor Processing Units (TPUs):

  • Google is on the seventh generation of its TPU ([03:58]).
  • Recent performance advances mean Google’s chips can compete directly with Nvidia, especially for inferencing and operational efficiency.
  • “The Gemini model... has been able to match up to OpenAI, whether it's in terms of chatbot functionality, image generation, video generation, they are a state-of-the-art model.” — Mandeep Singh ([03:58]).
  • Gemini is not yet the best at everything (e.g., coding agents), but it provides “state-of-the-art at the lowest cost in terms of tokens.”

• Cost and Efficiency Arguments:

  • Nvidia chips for 1 gigawatt of capacity: $30–35 billion ([05:23]).
  • Meta plans to add about 10 gigawatts over five years; paying exclusively for Nvidia chips would mean $300 billion on hardware alone.
  • Google’s infrastructure is run much more efficiently, and with much lower costs per gigawatt (Google spent $90 billion in capex in a year, supporting a gigantic cloud business and model training).
  • “They’re not spending $30–35 billion per gigawatt, and that’s what everyone is seeing now in terms of efficiency.” — Mandeep Singh ([05:23])

Competitive and Investment Implications

• Investor Takeaways:
  • Nvidia is still growing, with forecasts up to $330 billion in revenue next year ([07:08]).
  • But given its massive valuation, further multiple expansion is unlikely — investors are cautious, recalling “scars from the dot-com bubble.”
  • “It’s very hard to see multiple expansion in a company like Nvidia which was close to...$4 trillion plus. And I think they are growing very nicely into earnings. But... people really being conservative in terms of what sort of multiple they pay for a stock like Nvidia.” — Mandeep Singh ([07:08])

Memorable Quotes

• “When you are spending such big sums, you don’t want to be dependent on one supplier... Nvidia still has the best chips. They probably have a virtual monopoly when it comes to the training.” — Mandeep Singh ([02:33])
• “Meta is looking to buy something from Google given they compete... so fiercely on the digital ad side... that’s really a reflection of the changing tech stack.” — Mandeep Singh ([02:33])
• “The Gemini model... as a standalone model has been able to match up to, you know, OpenAI” — Mandeep Singh ([03:58])
• “If a 1 gigawatt [data center] costs $50 billion, any company spending $30–$35 billion and all these companies, like OpenAI, has talked about adding up to 26 gigawatts in capacity, that really translates into huge revenue for Nvidia.” — Mandeep Singh ([05:23])

2. Retail Earnings Roundup: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, J.M. Smucker

[10:35–34:32]

Dick’s Sporting Goods & Foot Locker

Guest Analyst: Lindsey Dutch ([11:03])

• Q3 Performance:

  • Strong back-to-school period for Dick’s; raised outlook for the legacy business.
  • Foot Locker (recent acquisition) faces inventory issues and steep markdowns; Q4 forecast is for mid- to high-single-digit same-store sales decline.
  • Integration requires further investment and brand assortment strategy, especially in relation to Nike and updating store layouts ([12:08]).

• Vendor & Brand Strategy:

  • Dick’s is diversifying its assortment, including up-and-coming brands (Hoka, On).
  • Foot Locker remains a Nike hub, especially within basketball, but Dick’s wants to manage exposure and ensure access to “the newest stuff, the hottest lines” ([12:08]).

• Tariffs and Costs:

  • Higher costs expected for Dick’s in the back half of the year and into next year.
  • Dick’s can pass some price increases onto higher-income consumers; Foot Locker, lacking premium product assortment, will suffer more from steeper inventory discounts ([12:57]).

Best Buy

Guest Analyst: Lindsey Dutch ([13:57])

• Q3 Surprise Beat:

  • Strong Q3 in computing, phones, gaming, and signs of a rebound in home theater.
  • Investors remain conservative due to a cautious Q4 guide ([14:13]).

• Promotional Strategy:

  • Best Buy leans into promotions and membership programs; started Black Friday deals early, targeting wallet share across more product categories ([16:13]).
  • “The Playbook looks very, very similar. But the demand picture looks better. So hopefully those promo events can really draw that shopper in.” — Lindsey Dutch ([16:13])

Kohl’s

Guest Analyst: Mary Ross Gilbert ([20:03])

• Business Simplification & Recovery:

  • “They’ve kind of gone back to the basics” — restoring private brands, bringing back petite sizing.
  • Slowly recovering after years of market share loss, especially to off-price/value players.
  • Beauty initiatives (with Sephora) important for repeat business; seeing early signs of turnaround ([20:03–22:16]).

• Competitive Rank:

  • Positioned below Macy’s, but benefits from off-mall locations.

Abercrombie & Fitch

Guest Analyst: Mary Ross Gilbert ([23:42])

• Rebound After a Difficult Year:

  • After a 50% stock decline during 2025 (on tariffs/weakness in main brand), latest quarter comp sales were better than expected.
  • Hollister (targets Gen Z) is outperforming; Abercrombie owns the millennial/young women niche.
  • “Abercrombie could turn positive in the fourth quarter with a number of the initiatives that they have in place going into the holiday quarter.” — Mary Ross Gilbert ([23:42])

• Tariffs Offset by Lower Freight:

  • Expect $60M tariff hit in Q4, but improving margins via less discounting and lower shipping costs.
  • Kohl’s also cites tariffs as a concern for 2026; private label mix helps margins ([25:18]).

J.M. Smucker (SJM) & Packaged Foods

Guest Analyst: Diana Rositopena ([30:07])

• Mixed Results and Tariff Impacts:

  • Lowered guidance after scrapping a planned coffee price increase, due to tariff relief.
  • Facing $75M in tariff costs for fiscal 2026 despite relief ([31:00]).
  • Coffee as a category allows price pass-throughs, but rising prices are pushing consumers toward private label alternatives ([32:40]).

• Broader Packaged Foods Trend:

  • Companies are weighing how much price increase to pass on, given consumer sensitivities after years of inflation.
  • “We’re seeing private label get some market share in the past six to eight months and that has been a headwind.” — Diana Rositopena ([32:40])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• AI Hardware Rivalry & Meta’s Diversification: [02:01] – [07:42]
• Dick’s & Foot Locker Earnings Analysis: [10:35] – [13:57]
• Best Buy’s Q3 Beat & Strategies: [13:57] – [16:45]
• Kohl’s Recovery & Positioning: [19:37] – [22:56]
• Abercrombie, Hollister & Tariff Strategies: [22:56] – [26:33]
• J.M. Smucker, Packaged Foods & Pricing Dynamics: [29:26] – [34:32]

Notable Quotes

• On the AI hardware arms race:

  “I’m very surprised that Meta is looking to buy something from Google given they compete, you know, so fiercely on the digital ad side. But that’s really a reflection of the changing tech stack and how these companies are evolving with AI.”
  — Mandeep Singh ([02:33])

• On Nvidia’s future growth:

  “It’s very hard to see multiple expansion in a company like Nvidia which was close to...$4 trillion+...everyone has that scars from the dot-com bubble in terms of paying too much in terms of multiple.”
  — Mandeep Singh ([07:08])

• On Kohl’s turnaround:

  “Their private brands... they brought those brands back because they actually sacrificed some... under the prior leadership... Now that they’ve brought the private brands back, they brought back petite sizing which was really important to their customer base. Now they’re really starting to see, you know, a recovery.”
  — Mary Ross Gilbert ([20:03])

• On food inflation & private label:

  “We’re seeing private label get some market share in the past six to eight months and that obviously has been a headwind for packaged food companies. They’re becoming more competitive.”
  — Diana Rositopena ([32:40])

Overall Takeaways

• Tech: The AI chip landscape is shifting, with Google’s hardware (TPUs) now competitive enough to attract major spend from Meta and potentially diversify hyperscaler supply chains away from Nvidia. Increased focus on efficiency and operating costs will shape future AI infrastructure investments. For investors, Nvidia’s explosive growth is likely already priced in, with caution dominating sentiment.
• Retail: Dick’s, Best Buy, Kohl’s, and Abercrombie navigate varying turnaround dynamics: from inventory struggles (Foot Locker) and changing consumer trends (Abercrombie, Best Buy) to tariff and cost pressures.
• Packaged Foods: Smucker and competitors are facing a tough, price-sensitive consumer and the renewed challenge of private-label competition, as cost pass-through reaches its limits and margin management becomes key.

This summary captures the core insights and lively exchanges of the episode, providing the essential context, segment flow, and actionable takeaways for listeners or investors interested in the evolving tech and retail landscape.