Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode: Oil Dips in Thin Post-Christmas Trade Amid Ukraine Talk Progress
Date: December 26, 2025
Host(s): Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Key Guests: Ellen Wald (Atlantic Council, author of Saudi, Inc.), Michelle Alon (CEO of June Group, Chief Business Officer at Verve), Carol Pepper (CEO, Pepper International)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into global oil markets amid thin post-holiday trading, the evolving retail landscape post-Christmas, and investment strategies and market outlook for 2026. The hosts leverage Bloomberg Intelligence expertise and feature high-caliber guests to examine geopolitical, consumer, and investor dynamics set to shape the year ahead.

1. Oil Markets: Geopolitics, Supply, and 2026 Outlook

Guest: Ellen Wald (Atlantic Council)
Segment Start: [04:40]

Main Points:

• Current State: Crude oil prices remain low (Brent at $61, WTI at $57).
• Market Drivers: Thin trading due to the holidays, dashed hopes of swift Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution, and shifting supply narrative around Venezuela and US intervention.
• US Policy Impact: The US commandeering Venezuelan oil (sanctioned crude redirected into US supply) is adding to the global glut, further pushing prices down.
  • “This was crude oil that was sanctioned, was kind of being bought on the black market, but now it’s being introduced into the larger supply and so that’s going to push prices down.” – Ellen Wald [06:35]
• 2026 Outlook: Concerns about oversupply loom as US production could become the marginal barrel.
• China’s Position: Changes in the sanctioned crude landscape may increase costs for China, which has been sourcing Russian and Venezuelan oil at a discount.
  • “China has really been getting away with an incredible amount of very low cost supply ... they may actually be anticipating having to pay more, whereas the rest of the world is looking at paying less.” – Ellen Wald [09:33]
• Oil Patch Sentiment (US Perspective): Dallas Fed survey reflects a mixed mood—some see opportunities, others struggle with low prices and even paying to have their natural gas removed.
• Supply Glut Debate: Conflicting perspectives from the IEA and OPEC; difficulty in tracking real global supply due to sanctioned and “off the books” oil movement.

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s really become a very complex game out there in terms of what kind of wells you have, what stage they’re in, where you are in drilling….” – Ellen Wald [13:48]
• “If you ask the IEA, they’ll tell you yes, we’re in a huge oil supply glut. If you ask OPEC, they’re going to say no, it’s definitely not as bad as the IEA seems.” – Ellen Wald [15:18]

2. Holiday Retail & E-Commerce Trends

Guest: Michelle Alon (June Group, Verve)
Segment Start: [20:25]

Main Points:

• Holiday Shift: Consumers moved from deal-focused (pre-Black Friday) to intentional, brand-driven shopping after Black Friday.
  • “Consumers weren’t overwhelmed… They were more intentional and selective around the brands that they chose.” – Michelle Alon [22:40]
• Promotional Activity: Discount retailers like Marshalls still chased deal seekers, while DTC brands focused on buyer experience and loyalty.
• Social & Omni-channel: Massive surge in TikTok Shop activity (180% increase in related searches); TikTok is now both a discovery and purchase platform for all age groups.
  • “With the introduction of LLMs and creating shoppable experiences… shopping experiences [are] becoming more focused and shorter.” – Michelle Alon [27:55]
• Generational Insights: Contrary to assumptions, TikTok is seeing users across all age groups engaging in holiday shopping.
• AI & Retail: AI’s biggest usage so far is in verticals like travel—helping consumers find and book travel, reducing decision anxiety. Retail is in early stages but optimization for AI search/discovery is expected to grow.
• Product Trends: Digital gifts (subscriptions like Kindle Unlimited, Peloton) now on par with physical ones—valued for instant gratification, especially when time is tight.
  • “Based on the data we’re seeing this year, we saw some strong signals that digital products now carry as much weight as physical products, especially when time is scarce.” – Michelle Alon [32:13]

3. 2026 Market & Investment Outlook

Guest: Carol Pepper (Pepper International)
Segment Start: [36:45]

Main Points:

• 2025 Recap & 2026 Optimism: Strong rally in 2025, with family offices and investors preparing to deploy sidelined capital in 2026.
  • “Family offices are excited about this strong rally... they're all ready to take their dry powder and start investing. So I think it’s going to be a very strong year.” – Carol Pepper [37:12]
• Asset Allocation: Family offices maintain interest in alternatives and non-correlated assets—previous boosts in precious metals, new focus on data centers, AI, and rare earth metals.
• Private to Public Market Pipeline: Rising anticipation for “mega IPOs” in AI (e.g., SpaceX, OpenAI). Public listings expected to draw fresh capital and offer accessible entry points for a new wave of investors.
  • “Absolutely, because you’ll have an even larger capital base. And they’re just getting started. … Double, triple, quadruple that rate of change [vs the Internet].” – Carol Pepper [39:44]
• AI Investment Cycle: Enthusiasm persists, tempered by “fear days” typical of any secular trend. Compared to dot-com era, today’s AI-related firms have strong cash positions for weathering volatility.
  • “During the dot com era, people were basically buying on vaporware with no cash, no earnings, no nothing. And in this case there is a massive cash hoard behind a lot of these plays.” – Carol Pepper [41:28]
• Election Risk: 2026 US elections likely bring political noise but not significant direct market impact, unless accompanied by major regime change or a crisis.
  • “It’s going to be a lot of noise... It will take up a lot of airtime but not necessarily a lot of economic change per se for the markets.” – Carol Pepper [43:39]

Noteworthy Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Oil Markets:
  • “If some of this supply … gets transitioned into the regular oil market, yes, it’s going to push prices down overall. But China… may be anticipating having to pay more, whereas the rest of the world is looking at paying less.”
    – Ellen Wald [09:33]
• Shopping Behavior:
  • “Digital products now carry as much weight as physical products, especially when time is scarce.”
    – Michelle Alon [32:13]
• Investment Strategy:
  • “If you can’t make a deal in this market, go home because it’s going to be a fantastic market in 26.”
    – Carol Pepper [37:28]
  • “Stick it in your child’s college account or your retirement account and just let it run.”
    – Carol Pepper, on AI IPOs [41:01]

Timeline & Timestamps

• [04:40] – Ellen Wald on oil market supply/demand and Venezuela
• [09:33] – China’s oil sourcing and price sensitivity
• [13:48] – State of the US oil patch, Dallas Fed insights
• [15:18] – Debate: Oil glut or not?
• [20:25] – Michelle Alon on consumer/retail holiday trends
• [27:55] – Generational/gender insights, TikTok Shop, LLM impact
• [32:13] – Digital subscription gifts rise in popularity
• [36:45] – Carol Pepper on 2026 investment landscape
• [39:44] – AI IPOs, public vs. private market dynamics
• [41:28] – Comparing today’s AI wave with dot-com era
• [43:39] – US election risk for markets in 2026

Tone & Style

The episode maintains a brisk, analytic, but accessible tone—combining expert insight with practical, real-world takeaways for both sophisticated investors and general market observers.

Summary Highlights

• Oil prices remain under pressure heading into 2026 due to thin trading, ongoing US-Venezuela maneuvers, and lackluster demand; China may soon lose its discount advantage on sanctioned oil.
• Retail behavior shifted in the 2025 holiday season toward intentional, brand-driven purchases, with digital subscriptions competing with physical goods, and TikTok emerging as a transactional powerhouse for all demographics.
• Investor sentiment is bullish into 2026, with family offices eyeing alternatives and the next generation of AI/tech IPOs, even as election-year noise is expected to add volatility but not derail the fundamentals.