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What is actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Bailey Gifford Actual Investors Find out more@baileygifford.com so let me get this straight. Your company has data here, there and everywhere, but your AI can't use the data because it's here, there and everywhere? Seems like something's missing. Every business has unique data. IBM helps your AI access your data wherever it lives. To change how you do business, let's create smarter business. IBM. Enterprise leaders are revolutionizing their marketing operations with AWS AI. 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Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomb Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. I want to check in with Ellen Wald. She is joining us here. Ellen, you know a lot going on in the geopolitical markets impacting the global crude market, but we still got crude at low levels. Brent crude 61 bucks WTI$57 here. What's your view of the supply and demand out there for global crude? Yeah, I think a lot of what we're seeing right is first of all kind of end of year, not a lot of trading going on in general. You know, not a lot of of people working and trading a whole lot. But also I do think that we are actually seeing a pullback because earlier this month there were incredible hopes that we might see a resolution to the Russia, Ukraine conflict and that would brought a lot of oil back in the market. I think we're kind of seeing kind of a pullback from that. People are realizing like that's, that's not actually going to happen. That I also think that we're also seeing a little bit of a pullback from a slight fear of a supply disruption regarding Venezuela. It's pretty clear that the only supply disruption that's going on is Venezuela's supply is not going to reach the rest of the world. But the issue there is that once the US has commandeered this crude and President Trump has said outright that he plans to just take the crude, put it into US Supplies, put it into the SPR and whatnot, and that actually introduces bottom, more supply into the system because this was crude oil that was sanctioned, was kind of being bought on the black market, but now it's being introduced onto, into the larger supply and so that's going to push prices down. Believe it or not, though, I do think that, you know, it's not quite settled there. We're really going off of exactly what, what he said, you know, so, so I think that there's a fear that we've got rising supply and that demand is not all that, that firm that we could definitely see Dec. I do think when we're looking ahead to 2026, though, that people are looking very closely at the U.S. supply and whether it's going to start to show signs of pulling back. Interesting. So maybe an issue of oversupply going into 2026 where US becomes sort of a marginal barrel there. What's really interesting in some of your notes, and I'm thinking about today in particular the move we got thin trading, but oil is lower, as you mentioned. Maybe people are taking three steps ahead to think what Venezuela ultimately has in terms of impact on supply. But also there is tentative, even though you seem to say it's a little bit ahead of its time, but there is some tentative optimism around a long stalled Ukraine peace talk, at least in Zelinsky looking to visit President Trump in Florida. We understand you make the leap that maybe all of this is something that then ultimately affects China. Can you talk us through as to why we see Venezuela and Russia maybe impacting China in a way that we should keep an eye on? Yeah, exactly. So right now China is a huge purchaser of Russian oil. They're also a purchaser of Venezuelan oil. Not, you know, to the extent that they purchase Russian and Iranian crude, but still. And so really, you know, this impacts China's supply. And China has really been kind of getting away with an incredible amount of very low cost supply that they're buying, buying off of this so called black market. And you know, if some of this supply that they've been buying off the black market gets transitioned into the regular oil market, into regular supply, yes, it's going to push prices down overall. But China is going to start to have to pay more because they're paying such incredible discounts for their sanctioned oil that they're buying right now. So China could be kind of looking at this with, they probably are looking at this with a lot of interest in, you know, what's going to be the prices that we're going to have to pay for oil in 2026, given all of these shifting geopolitical factors. And so they may actually be anticipating having to pay more, whereas the rest of the world is looking at paying less. Carolyn, you may not know this, but I am a big fan of the television show Landman. So I now consider myself an expert on all things oil and gas. So Ellen, our good friends down in the oil patch, they can't be very happy with WTI at, but the 57 handle, what are they doing? What are they doing? So it's really interesting because if you want to know or if you want to get an idea about what's going on in the oil patch, yes, you could watch Landman or you could hop on over to the Dallas, the bank, the Dallas Federal Reserve, where they do a quarterly survey of oil producers and also oil services companies and they will give you a little glimpse into the mind of what they're thinking. And so the latest survey has showed everything from things are looking up, I'm not planning to reduce any production to I have to pay people to take my natural gas so that I can continue to produce. So I think the answer is it's really mixed and some producers are looking at a better outlook and other producers are looking at a much more dismal outlook. And I do think that depends a lot on exactly where they're producing and how they're producing and what their wells look like. Because it's really become a very complex, complex and a complex game out there in terms of what kind of wells you have, what stage they're in, where you are in drilling, in terms of how much you're going to get per barrel. This is a term that nobody in the oil business likes to hear. But is there a glut in global oil supply? That depends who you ask. I think if you, if you, if you ask the iea, they'll tell you, yes, we're in a huge oil supply glut. If you, you ask opec, they're going to say no, it's definitely not as bad as the IEA seems. Now, why can we have these two competing answers? Well, because it's actually really hard to count all those barrels of oil out there. It's not like you just get a number out of a computer spits you a number for, you know, what's global consumption today. These are things that have to be measured and it can be quite difficult, particularly with all of the sanctioned oil going on out there. So I can see why they're coming up with different, different answers. Fascinating. Always catching up with Ellen Wald of the Atlantic Council. She's also got a book, Saudi Ink. Yeah, we love to read that. So thank you. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. What is actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Baillie Gifford Actual investors Find out more@baileygifford.com if a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around. Just go directly to the source Lenovo.com it's your last chance to score exclusive deals on the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10 gaming desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source Lenovo.com where PCs are up to 35% off. That's Lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo. So you're telling me that the AI that's meant to make everyone's job easier to manage just adds more to manage on top of the thousands of apps the IT department already manages? Funny how that works. Any business can add AI. IBM helps you scale and manage AI to change how you do business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything, CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part, Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out, already scaling up. Plus it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o dot com. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. All right, retail sales, I think this Christmas season, the holiday season, from what we heard from the experts, Caroline been pretty solid. Kind of people are spending money, you know, so anecdotally. Anecdotally I spent some money. You okay? Speak now. We've got some hard data, folks. Joining us now is Michelle Alon, CEO of June Group and chief business Officer at Verve. Talk about just kind of the consumer out there in retail and how's the consumer doing? We've all heard about the K shaped economy, but what does that really mean for retailers out there and dollars being spent? So Michelle, thanks so much for joining us here. What can you tell us about what we've learned over the last several weeks maybe about the US Consumer? Yeah, thanks. Thanks for having me first. Well, you know, we analyze billions of search queries on a, on a monthly basis using our captive product. And what we're seeing in this holiday season is this very interesting behavior from consumers where, you know, instead of being focused on deal driven shopping, they are shifting to an intent driven one. Obviously before Black Friday, you see a lot of consumers looking for deals. But what we saw in the time leading to Christmas after Black Friday is that consumers were looking for trusted brands, they were looking for creative toys and they were looking for subscriptions that remove friction and deliver instant value. Overall. This tells us that consumers weren't overwhelmed by what was available there. They were more intentional and selective around the brands that they chose. That's the term I've heard like more intentional, intentional buying. That's the first time I've heard that term here, but I've heard it a few times here this holiday season. How promotional were retailers out there? How promotional did they have to be, Michelle, to drive traffic? Yeah, some of them. Look, there are two sides of the spectrum. You know, if you look at the market, you still have the marshals and team use of the world who are looking to cast a wide net and to attract those consumers that are looking for, for, for the deals. At the same time, when you look at the DTC brands, you know, the Warby partners of the world, they were more focused on creating this, you know, premium experience around the shopping and you saw that translate into searches that were, you know, very specific to those brands. I think that consumers were looking for brands that are trustable that you know, will allow them to cast a white net when they're going and you know, buying gifts for their friends and relatives. But also tried and true brands that will never be objectionable or questionable for, for their loved ones. How are people coming to those brands at the moment? There's companies that really manage to interweave the really bricks and mortar element as well as the online and advertising. How are you seeing people building a relationship with a brand at the moment? Yeah, I think that some of it is traditional buying in the traditional E commerce buying. You see that a lot with the DTC brands who have their own E commerce environments. But you also see a big shift into social. There was around 180% increase in searches related to the TikTok shop. So if you consider that, you know, in the past TikTok was a great venue for brand discovery. It was kind of like a PR tactic in a way. But now it's much more than that. It allows consumers to really close the loop and make a purchase very quickly. So it went beyond just, you know, a discovery tool as it used to be. And I think that brands that are, that are smart about reaching their target audiences are going to put more focus on those types of shopping environments because shopping windows are becoming shorter and shorter and consumers want to feel good about the decisions that they make and social environment is allowing them to do that. I mean, how do we break down generationally or just bring us with people who are on TikTok is it, who is the person that's spending right now? What do they seem like? What are they, what are their views on gifting? Is it mainly parents that are coming in to Tik Tok and doing it? What are you seeing in terms of the Gen Z cohort as well? We see the full gamut I think that if you look at some of the brands that were mentioned in our research, you know, some of them cater to younger audiences, others cater to older audiences. So we see really the full, the full range. I think that sometimes people assume that TikTok and those types of environments are a better fit for the younger generations, but based on what we're seeing, it's actually the full range. And that's just the beginning, right? With the introduction of LLMs and creating shoppable experience with experiences with LLMs, I think that we're going to see more and more shopping experiences becoming more focused and shorter. And again, consumers will want to feel good about what the decisions that they made removing, reducing that level of anxiety or FOMO is going to be key to those brands that are interested in being successful in these environments. Michelle I think we're just starting to see consumers, broadly defined, get started to get a little bit comfortable with AI and how AI might be helpful to them. Probably can say the same thing about retailers. How are they using AI? Just give us an overview of kind of what we learned. Maybe during this shopping season. Was AI prominent with the consumer, with the retailer? I think we're in early stages of that. I do think that there are some certain verticals in the market that are already taking advantage of, you know, consumers ability to find the right solution for them. I think travel is a great example for that. I mean, think about how much time you normally spend in finding the best flight or the best hotel and using AI in order to do that work for you. Using agents is going to, to reduce a lot of that FOMO or anxiety that people normally have when they search for travel. And you know, travel is one of our biggest verticals and we always look at, you know, what can travel clients or brands can do better. And I think that they are ahead of the game. And I'm expecting others in retail in other areas to follow suit and optimize, you know, in the same way that they used to optimize for web searches, to optimize for how their brands appear in those LM environments. So this year though, Michelle, talk to us. Is it still E commerce taking share from bricks and mortar or do we have maybe kind of a new state status quo there between E commerce and bricks and mortar? I think that one interesting thing that we saw was actually digital subscriptions. I think that those generate this instant value. You don't need to wait for a product to be delivered. In the past those types of products had a stigma to them that they were not thoughtful enough or not specific enough to the person that you're trying to gift. We've seen that shift over time. I think that based on the data that we're seeing this year, we saw some strong signals that digital products now carry as much weight as physical products, especially when time is scarce. And I think that what makes it even more interesting is if you look at the types of products that were being promoted, Kindle Unlimited or Peloton. Those also give a nod to everyone's New Year's resolutions and making sure that there is is some alignment between the gift and what people are trying to do in Q1 or, you know, Q5 as we sometimes call it. All about the wellness Michelle Alon, Chief Business Officer over at Verve of connecting advertisers to publishers across emerging channels. Great to get your expertise today. Thank you very much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. If a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around. Just go directly to the source Lenovo.com it's your last chance to score exclusive deals on the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10 gaming desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source lenovo.com where PCs are up to 35% off. That's lenovo.com. So you're telling me that the AI that's meant to make everyone's job easier to manage just adds more to manage on top of the thousands of apps the IT department already manages? Funny how that works. Any business can add AI. IBM helps you scale and manage AI to change how you do business? Let's create smarter business IBM. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, HR and more. No more app overload, no more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it's easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process so you can focus on what really matters and running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try Odoo for free@odoo.com that's o d o o.com Enterprise AI is revolutionizing customer engagement and Amazon's Alexa demonstrates this transformation at scale. Alexa represents a breakthrough in AI assistance evolving from basic command response to goal oriented autonomous operations operation. Powered by AWS AI, this enterprise grade technology processes billions of natural language interactions daily, continuously improving through machine learning. The result? A secure, scalable voice AI platform that's transforming customer experience across industries. For businesses. This represents more than just voice assistance. It's a proven framework for AI driven digital transformation. Global organizations are already deploying AWS voice technology solutions to enhance customer service, streamline operations and drive innovation. Transform your business operations with the same AI technology powering millions of Alexa interactions worldwide. AWS AI the Voice of Innovation Discover the Alexa story at aws.com AI our-story. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We're not going to look at the day, we're going to look at the year, and we're going to look at what 2026 brings to you with Carol Pepper, Paul, we got the perfect guest. Absolutely. Carol Pepper, Pepper International CEO Carol again, we're Caroline and I were just kind of going over the the total returns here in 2025. What's the conversation you're having having with your family office clients about 2026? Yeah, well, family offices are excited about this strong rally and although some of them still sat a bit on the sidelines during 25, because in the beginning of the year it did look a bit dicey. They're all ready to take their dry powder and start investing. So I think it's going to be a very strong year. The fundamentals are there. We got that. Second, we got a rate cut December, which is phenomenal. The markets are strong, they're strong underpinnings and so I think people are going to be going in early on and as you say, if you can't make a deal in this market, go home because it's going to be a fantastic market in 26. How much risk do you think your clients are going to be looking to take here after three strong years of equity returns? Maybe looking outside of traditional public equity for maybe some other areas that might just generate return? Well, family offices are always interested in alternative investments and non correlated assets because we create asset allocations that last for generations and portfolios are each tailored to the particular purpose of that portfolio. So for sure we were in precious metals a couple of years ago. We've written that trend up. The data center trend is honestly just getting started. And a lot of the deals have been in the private side through private debt deals and private hedge funds that are funding these plays. But those things will begin to come into the public markets as well. So AI technology, rare earth metals required to build a lot of this new technology that we're looking for in our country. You know, deposits being found onshore that are going to be able to power the resurgence of this new AI world that we're creating. There's a lot of areas to invest in this year in 26. Carol, can I jump in on that? Because we are anticipating some mega IPOs potentially in the AI world. We're expecting maybe Space X that's sort of AI and defense in many ways. But OpenAI could well tap the markets. If you're someone who hasn't managed to gain access through the private markets, are you left holding the baby? Do you think though that actually there's more room to run in terms of valuations once in the public market? Absolutely, because you'll have an even larger capital base. And they're just getting started. Family offices are working on this. You know, if you think about how quickly the Internet changed, double, triple, quadruple that rate of change. So even though we've got cutting edge ships today from Nvidia, we don't know what they're going to look like even by the end of the year. Data centers that are the size of 20 football fields are going to shrink down to the size of shipping containers very shortly. You're going to find AI data centers and inside of huge office buildings, for example, that have been repurposed to handle all the new compute power that's required. So you're going to see tremendous change happening in the air space. And as that happens, you need a lot of capital. So yes, when it comes public, obviously the first few days going to drift down, that's when you grab it. Or on a fear day. Because it's not like we're not going to have fear days in 26. We always have fear days. But yes, there will be opportunities for you to get into that trend. Stick it in child's college account or in your retirement account and just let it run. But how much is the bubble going to be the fear trend. We have this on again, off again. It feels as though people are bought back into AI optimism just in the last couple of weeks. But since October and onwards we've had these fleeting moments of panic really, that the debt that's getting loaded onto certain companies or indeed just whether the productivity gains are going to be enough to vindicate the amount of infrastructure investment that we're seeing. Well, they will. It's just a question of timing, honestly. And the good part for the companies, unlike during the dot com, these companies have a boatload of cash. If you recall, during the dot com era, people were, you know, basically buying on vaporware with no cash, no earnings, no nothing. And in this case there is a massive cash hoard behind a lot of these plays. They learn their lessons and so they're ready to ride through those periods when there's doubt. Because other things are happening in the world besides I so I don't think yes, other things are happening whether whether they notice it or not. Carol 2026 is an election year and that presumably will bring some level of uncertainty back into the marketplace. How much of a risk, if any, is that to you? I think it's going to be a lot of noise. I mean, unless you have an impeachment of the president due to a regime change in the House or the Senate, it will be noise. There'll be a lot of noise there. You know, Epstein is a disgusting situation, but again, not economically changing the country's profile. So as long as there's more steadiness this year, hopefully on the direction of the economics, economics and hopefully some further relief on tariffs, you'll see the market happy enough. And, and it's it's still an open question of who's going to win the midterms, but it will be something that will take up a lot of airtime but not necessarily a lot of economic change per se for the markets. Carol, it's been great getting your expertise as we wrap up this year, an extraordinary year of record high on the S and P 500 as we speak. Carl Pepper, Great to have some time. Pepper International CEO this is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday 10am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. If a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around, just go directly to the source. Lenovo.com it's your last chance to score exclusive deals on the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10 gaming desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source. Lenovo.com where PCs are up to 35% off. That's Lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo with Venmo Stash A taco in one hand and ordering a ride in the other means you're stacking cash back. Nice. 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