Oil Dives as Trump Backs Off Iran Threats

Summary

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Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast

Episode: Oil Dives as Trump Backs Off Iran Threats

Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney & Scarlet Fu
Featured Guests: Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist), Steve Lamar (President & CEO, American Apparel and Footwear Association), Mark Gurman (Bloomberg Managing Editor, Global Consumer Tech)

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Episode Overview

This episode zeroes in on shifting oil prices driven by decreased Middle East tensions following President Trump’s decision to seek a diplomatic off-ramp with Iran. Alongside market implications, hosts Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu discuss the trickle-down effects for consumers and industries, gold's latest cycle, Apple's leadership succession, and the state of tariffs and refunds post-Supreme Court ruling. Expert guests provide data-driven context, market predictions, and insight into policy and corporate strategy.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Oil Market Reacts to Decreased Iran Tension

Guest: Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist
[02:31 – 04:43]

• Oil Pullback:

  • Oil prices are dropping as Middle East tensions ease, particularly with President Trump signaling a drawdown of military pressure on Iran.
  • Quote [02:55]:
    “By the time we get to the midterms, Paul, I think that front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100. Right now it’s $73 a barrel.” – Mike McGlone

• Historical Comparison and Political Influence:

  • Recent highs in oil (up to $120 earlier this year) are considered unsustainable.
  • The U.S., as a net exporter, has policy levers to keep prices down, especially in an election year.
  • Quote [03:23]:
    “Bottom line is we have the leader of the world’s most significant energy producer… who wants prices lower. And there’s election in November.” – Mike McGlone

• Consumer Impact:

  • Gasoline peaked near $4/gallon, diesel at $5.30; both expected to decline.
  • Potential for significant drop in gas prices, possibly $2/gallon.

• Volatility and Market Signals:

  • Stock market volatility remains low; further turmoil in energy/gold may soon spill over into equities.

2. Gold’s Bull Run: Is It Over?

[05:48 – 06:41]

• Gold Loses Steam:

  • Recent peak in gold prices is being viewed as potentially the top for years to come.
  • Parallels drawn with peaks in 1980 and 2011.
  • Quote [06:07]:
    “That bull run’s over, Scarlett. It’s very similar to 1980 and the peak in 2011.” – Mike McGlone

• Market Mechanics:

  • Gold index was highly overextended compared to other commodities and its long-term moving average.

3. Apple CEO Succession: Looking Beyond Tim Cook

Guest: Mark Gurman, Bloomberg Managing Editor, Global Consumer Tech
[09:16 – 14:56]

• Emerging Successor: John Ternus

  • Senior VP of Hardware Engineering, seen as the frontrunner for CEO role.
  • Ternus is positioned as a “continuity pick,” younger than other contenders, and central to Apple’s hardware engineering.
  • Quote [10:58]:
    “This is really going to be the beginning of a new era… John Ternus…is at the center of the action.” – Mark Gurman

• Investor Familiarity and Public Profile:

  • Ternus has taken increasing lead in major product launches and public-facing activities.
  • His presence at March’s MacBook Neo launch is cited as evidence Apple is grooming him.

• Strategic Fit:

  • Ternus' engineering background would reinforce Apple’s focus on hardware, but may not align with a shift to services or AI.
  • Quote [12:57]:
    “If Apple is going to remain a hardware-centric company…he’s the person to take them into the next 15, 20 years.” – Mark Gurman

• Cook’s Statesmanship and Government Ties:

  • Cook’s crucial role in U.S. and China relationships highlighted; he manages connections at the highest level (especially with President Trump).
  • Cook expected to be involved in Apple post-CEO, perhaps as executive chairman, especially as long as Trump remains in office.

4. Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling

Guest: Steve Lamar, American Apparel and Footwear Association
[17:37 – 24:51]

• State of Refunds:

  • Supreme Court invalidated certain tariffs, opening the process for refunds to importers.
  • Process likened to standard government refund mechanisms for customs and taxes.
  • Quote [18:23]:
    “…refunds should be returned the same way they were collected—automatically, fully, quickly to the importer of record.” – Steve Lamar

• Skepticism and Mechanisms:

  • Government must return funds with interest, incentivizing swift repayment.
  • Existing infrastructure for refunds is robust; the number of tariff refund claims is small compared to annual tax refunds.

• Ongoing Policy Risks:

  • The Trump Administration continues advocating for tariffs under other legal provisions (Sections 122 and 301), possibly trying to replicate the struck-down system.

• Impact of Oil on Manufacturing and Logistics:

  • War-driven oil price surges affect not just fuel, but supply chain costs across materials, shipping, and ultimately consumer prices.
  • Ongoing Red Sea disruptions compound logistics challenges.

• Who Pays the Tariffs?

  • Ultimately, costs are absorbed by a mix of importers, manufacturers, and consumers, varying by case and over time.
  • Quote [24:51]:
    “Some tariffs are a cost that’s imposed on the supply chain, and different companies will absorb or pass that cost along…and that will change over time…ultimately…costs…get passed along to consumers.” – Steve Lamar

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Oil’s Future:
  “By the time we get to the midterms… front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100.” – Mike McGlone [02:55]

• On Ending the Gold Rush:
  “That bull run’s over, Scarlett. It’s very similar to 1980 and the peak in 2011.” – Mike McGlone [06:07]

• On Apple’s First Planned CEO Transition:
  “This is really going to be the beginning of a new era… John Ternus…is at the center of the action.” – Mark Gurman [10:58]

• On Tim Cook’s Political Diplomacy:
  “That relationship [with Trump] is managed by one person and one person only, and that’s Tim Cook.” – Mark Gurman [13:52]

• On Tariff Refunds Mechanics:
  “…refunds should be returned the same way they were collected—automatically, fully, quickly to the importer of record.” – Steve Lamar [18:23]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oil market and geopolitical impact: 02:31 – 05:48
• Gold's market position: 05:48 – 06:41
• Apple succession and Tim Cook's legacy: 09:16 – 14:56
• Tariff refunds post-Supreme Court decision: 17:37 – 24:51

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Tone & Style

The podcast maintains a conversational, data-driven, and analytical tone, combining the directness of Bloomberg’s market coverage with accessible, on-the-ground insight from industry experts.

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This summary offers a comprehensive snapshot of the episode’s critical discussions, expert perspectives, and market implications—an essential catch-up for investors, executives, and anyone following U.S. energy policy, tech leadership, and trade.

Transcript

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[Paul Sweeney]

Let's check in with Mike McGlone. He's our commodity strategist down there in Miami Beach. Hey Mike, we're seeing I guess predictable and we get a little ease in the tensions in the Middle east and we see oil pulling pull back here. How much should to the extent or let's assume that President Trump does want to get fine an off ramp here and cease operations in Iran where do you expect oil to go and over what time frame?

[Mike McGlone]

By the time we get to the midterms, Paul, I think that front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100. Right now it's $73 a barrel. That's the December contract. So in futures and commodities, like to say we're going with the pucks, skating where the pucks go. Well, that's where it's going. The high was 78 so the front contract was unable to get above 100 and now it's ticking down. But we have good reasons. I think that high we put in this year around 120 is going to last for years. Very similar to 130 in 2022 and 147 in 2008. And the key question is now we have the bottom line is we have the leader of the world's most significant energy producer, net exporter of crude oil and natural gas, who wants prices lower. And there's election in November. So to me that's where it's going.

[Scarlet Fu]

So you see it all lining up. How long does it take before we see prices at the pump, how diesel prices, propane prices start to fall in tandem?

[Mike McGlone]

Scott, I'm glad you went there. So we got to 4 or 396 or so on the average gallon of gasoline in this country. I think that's the peak right around a four, diesel right around $5.30. I think that's probably the peak. How much lower they go. Good example. We've never gone this high and gasoline typically drops around $2 a gallon. I think that's going to happen. There's one key theme, there's a key point this morning, our morning meeting. Chris Kane, our equity strategist, pointed one thing that's happening, The S&P 500 dropped below its 200 day moving average but volatility is still too low. So what I think is once we have volatility coming from the energy market and the gold market tricking over the stock market, that's part of your pressure to make all these prices go lower and potentially have crude oil go back to the level I've been looking for forever, which is $40 a barrel, that's been the bottom for three times since 2008.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Mike, there are reports that there has been as a result of the war and attacks by Israel, Iran, some damage to some of the infrastructure in the Gulf region here. Does that argue for maybe a little bit higher than the normal levels given there might be a supply constraint for a number of years?

[Mike McGlone]

Paul that's part of that global recession that's really helping hurting the rest of the world. The US is a net exporter of crude oil, natural gas, corn, soybeans and wheat. And the key theme there is probably natural gas for the rest of the world, most notably Europe, that's a problem. A lot of that Qatar natural gas cut out might take years to bring that back on. But in the US it means growing glut will have to export. So that's why it's really significant. But this to me is part of that trigger for that global recession that we already are heading to potentially part because they're all fighting tariffs. So now it's about as long as the US can repress the ability for Iran to have offensive capabilities to close the strait, which we're kind of getting there. Gold's already figured that out then this is probably a peak we're going to see for years in crude oil this year.

[Scarlet Fu]

I'm glad you bring up gold. I wanted to go there next because we've seen gold parrots losses. It's now down only 2.1% but it's still a long way off from the peaks that it made at the start of this year when it hit a closing high 5354. Has that bull run ended? I mean is that the top here

[Mike McGlone]

we know to blame? I think that bull runs over Scarlett. It's very similar in Kings to 1980 and the Peak in 2011. As far as a high velocity gold was the Most Expensive Ever vs Bloomberg Commodity Index at the end of February and the highest in almost 50 years versus 60 month moving average. So it was a tremendous front runner indicator for what's happened. It bought the rumor, now it's selling the fact and now it's just way too expensive. Same in silver. And typically when you put in highs like this you do at this kind of velocity they last for years. So I think it's going to languish. Thank you very much. This win a great bull market and it's done.

[Scarlet Fu]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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[Paul Sweeney]

Here's the big Take story. I like it. Tim Cook doesn't want to talk about retirement yet, but John Ternus is emerging as his most likely successor. Who's to blame for that? That's Mark Gurman. He's a managing editor for Global Consumer Tech. He's in Los Angeles. And that's the big Take story here. You know, when you talk about Apple, you don't really talk about succession for Mr. Tim Cook. But he is 65 and I guess you have to think about it yeah.

[Scarlet Fu]

And I mean, he's a consummate planner, so you know that something's in the works there.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yep. And I think a lot of investors kind of looked at the Disney situation and said, boy, I hope we can do a better job in succession than they did at Disney. So we'll see how this plays out. But Mark Gurman, he is the man on the Apple story. Mark, thanks so much for joining us here. I was just mentioning to Scarlett, we don't really talk about succession at Apple too often, but maybe we should. What's your story today?

[Mark Gurman]

You know, I think actually, I know you were just talking about Disney. I think the Disney situation has actually made a bigger level of importance within Apple's executive team and within the board there. They don't want a repeat of what happened. Clearly they picked the wrong guy a few years ago and it seems like they got it right this time with Josh d' Amaro and Dana Walden. And I think Apple wants to get it right on its first try for succeeding Tim Cook. Now, remember, this is an interesting succession because this is going to be the first planned CEO transition in Apple's modern history. Certainly post 1997 brink of bankruptcy. Apple, remember, Steve Jobs stepped down prematurely due to health reasons, unfortunately, before passing away. And Tim Cook was the COO at the time. So Jobs appointed him as CEO. And Cook has done a remarkable job over the last 15 years. But this is really going to be the beginning of a new era, a real transition for the company. John Ternus, the senior VP of hardware engineering, is at the center of the action. He's about 15 years younger than Cook, 10 to 15 years younger than the rest of the other options on Apple's executive team. He's in charge of devices engineering. So 80% of the revenue. The company brings in a brilliant mastermind engineer, someone who's deeply ingrained in the Apple culture. And I think as young as he is, this would be a continuity pick for Apple.

[Scarlet Fu]

A continuity pick. Is he someone that investors are familiar with? Have they gotten enough exposure to him? Do they know what he's like and feel that they can trust that he can steer this company into the next century? Or maybe not.

[Mark Gurman]

Well, if they read my. Yeah, well, if they read my article today, they'll learn a lot about him and perhaps become comfortable with the idea of John Ternus as CEO. They've been pushing him to the forefront in events. The MacBook Neo that was introduced in early March, March 4th. It was Ternus who did the introduction of that, and it was Turnus who went on Good Morning America to talk about the launch of the MacBook Neo as well. Obviously, those are things that you would typically see Tim Cook do himself. But obviously that torch was passed to turn us for major product introductions.

[Scarlet Fu]

So in terms of John Ternus, what is his special distinction? I mean, Steve Jobs was, you know, the head designer in many ways. He kind of was the innovation guru for, for Apple. Could see around corners in terms of figuring out what people needed before they did. And Tim Cook was a supply chain genius. That was his forte. What does John Turner's bring to the table? That is really his distinction.

[Mark Gurman]

He's an engineering expert, Right. He knows how to build these products. He's the one who takes these products from concept to manufacturing. Right. So this is someone who is really in charge of the products. And if Apple is going to remain a hardware centric company, a product centric company, he's the person to take them into the next 15, 20 years. If this is going to turn into an AI company, a software company, services company, he's certainly not the right pick. So it really comes down to what Apple's board sees as the future of the company. And I would bet that they continue to see hardware as the very center of the action there.

[Paul Sweeney]

Hey, Mark, when I think of Tim Cook, I think is almost as much as a statesman as he is a corporate CEO, a statesman in terms of dealing with maybe the US Administration as well as international partners, most notably China. What do we know about Mr. Turnus in that regard?

[Mark Gurman]

We don't know much. He does lots of meetings with regulators and some government officials around the world. But I mean, I guess you're asking about Trump. That relationship is managed by one person and one person only, and that's Tim Cook. There's some government affairs folks involved with the Trump relationship, but this is really a president to CEO relationship. And don't forget, Donald Trump is going to be President of the United states until early 2029. So we've got several years left of that, three years left of that administration. And even if Tim Cook is no longer CEO while Trump is in office, Cook is still going to be managing that relationship. Now, I don't anticipate that Cook will be out before Trump per se, but I do believe Cook will be part of Apple, I would say, for the next 10 to 12 years. Even if that doesn't mean he's CEO, I fully expect him to remain part of Apple as executive chairman or some sort of president role, even post CEO tenure, where he would be operating in that sort of government official capacity.

[Scarlet Fu]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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[Paul Sweeney]

Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds and crypto, and they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R and D spend small cap stocks with improving operating margins or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria, but on Public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing member Finra SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor crypto services by ZeroHash sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete [e-mail] disclosures.

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[Scarlet Fu]

Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu here on Bloomberg Intelligence with you in New York City. And Paul, can you believe it's been just over a month since the Supreme Court basically said, you know what, we're not going to go forward with those tariffs?

[Paul Sweeney]

Yep.

[Scarlet Fu]

I mean, there's so much has happened in March. It's kind of, yes, kind of hard to believe that it's been about a month. But since then, we know a lot of retailers, we know a lot of companies have been applying for refunds. They are seeking refunds for those tariffs that they paid since the tariffs were imposed. Steve Lamar is president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association. Of course, many of his members have a lot of money at stake here. Steve, just give us a state of the, you know, state of the world here when it comes to your members and how they are trying to secure refunds from the government.

[Steve Lamar]

Well, yeah, and first off, thank you for having me on. We were very appreciative of the Supreme Court taking this decision. It was the right decision. Really confirms that Congress is responsible for tariff policy, article 1, section 8. You can look it up if you don't believe me. And we are really pleased to see the Supreme Court made that decision. Our, our attitude is that refunds should be returned the same way they were collected automatically, fully, quickly to the importer record. You know, the individual that paid the tariffs, they should be the ones that get the money back. They can then decide what they end up doing with it if it gets passed along to the consumer, if it gets passed to the workforce, if it's used for investment. A lot of our manufacturers, they've had to put investment on hold for the last year because they haven't had the money to be able to make those investments. And now, and probably one of the biggest pro manufacturing things that have happened, all these manufacturers in our industry and in other places are going to be able to see that money again so they can be able to drive those investments going forward.

[Paul Sweeney]

I think, Steve, a lot of people are very skeptical that this process of returning the tariffs can even work. Will work. What do you guys think?

[Steve Lamar]

We think it will work. We think it has to work. You know, Congress well, you know, whenever the, whenever the US Government takes money that they're not allowed to take, I mean, it's a well established principle. It's a very immutable law, probably more so than gravity. You know, they have to return the money and they have to return the money with interest. In fact, probably half a billion dollars of interest gets incurred by the US Government every month. There is a delay. So there's a powerful incentive not only to repay the money that they've already taken incorrectly, but to do it quickly so they don't keep running up the bill at the taxpayer expense.

[Scarlet Fu]

Do we have any evidence that the process has started that, you know, some of your manufacturers are going to get a refund in a week, two weeks, five weeks?

[Steve Lamar]

I wish I could tell you those specific numbers. I'll give you two data points. One is the US Government refunds customs tariffs every single day. They've been doing it for years and years and years. It is part of the natural rhythm. Companies import, they overpay their tariffs, they get the tariffs back. So, and you can look this up, the Treasury Department reports, reports this on a daily basis. Reality actually is the amount of tariffs that we're talking about and the amount of refund entities that we're talking about is much less than what the US Government does every year when they refund taxes to individual tax filers, about 117 million tax filers in 2024, 331,000 importers of record. So you can tell the numbers are just a fraction when we look at the, at the tariff refunds. And the other thing is that the Court of International Trade, which is the court that has jurisdiction over these issues directed by the Supreme Court, is in a very far along in a process with Customs and Border Protection to oversee the development of a system to ensure the orderly repayment of the refunds, again with interest to the importer's record. So that process is well, well and well advanced.

[Paul Sweeney]

President Trump, the administration remains very hawkish as it remains, it relates to tariffs, talking about section 122, section 301, blah, blah, blah. How is that going to play out?

[Steve Lamar]

Well, the president is a big fan of tariffs, as you pointed out, and he is really looking at trying to recreate the system that was struck down by the Supreme Court. They've turned on one never used before, provision of trade law, the section 122. A lot of confusion, a lot of conflict about whether that's an appropriate step to take. Section 301, which is a more established provision of trade law, is being used here in this situation as well. And there's a case there where maybe it's being used in a way that it's not normally being used. I mean, normally section 301 is an investigation in search of answers. But right now, we sort of have an answer kind of in search of an investigation because they're literally trying to recreate the system that they had in place before.

[Scarlet Fu]

Steve, we also have to ask you about the war in Iran and what that means for your members. Certainly rising oil prices trickles through right away, and that has increased their costs at a time when there are already concerns about whether the economy was slowing down even before the war began.

[Steve Lamar]

Yeah, so we're obviously, it's a, it's a, it's a terrible situation. We hope they'll be able to resolve this as quickly as possible to. You know, war is always, is always really difficult. But, you know, when you look at it from the lens of oil, oil is, oil is more than just fuel. I mean, it shows up in fabric and fertilizer, in, you know, so many different ways in freight, and, and ultimately that can then become part of the final price tag that US Consumers pay. And again, that's just not just in our industry. We would see that really across the board. So I think really looking beyond just our industry, which is very globally focused, you have a, really, a lot of our economy is, is praying for, looking for a quick resolution. So not only do we see the, the, the adverse impacts on oil, but also the adverse impacts on the logistics that had been created as a result of this. And keep in mind, we still have the problem with the Red Sea, which hasn't fully returned to normal. There's some tentative steps there, but that's far from where it should be.

[Paul Sweeney]

Steve, about 30 seconds left. With some hindsight now, do we know who paid tariffs? Who is paying tariffs?

[Steve Lamar]

Well, with hindsight and foresight, tariffs are paid by the importer of record. In some cases that gets passed along. In some cases that gets totally eaten by the, by the manufacturer, the importer, whoever actually paid the tariffs. Really, it is a, it is a case by case thing where you have to. Each individual company and in fact in many of the different product lines will have very, very different answers.

[Paul Sweeney]

So we don't, like, I guess a lot of folks are saying, hey, it's certainly wasn't the exporter, probably. So it's some combination of consumer, the corporate food chains. That's kind of where it's all kind of dealt with.

[Steve Lamar]

Exactly right. Some tariffs are a cost that's imposed on the supply chain and different companies will absorb or pass that cost along and that will change over time. You know, ultimately, ultimately, ultimately over many years, tariffs are costs that, like every other cost, ultimately get passed along to consumers. Sometimes in the form of higher prices, but they they make their way really throughout the entire supply chain a lot of different ways.

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