Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast

Episode: Oil Dives as Trump Backs Off Iran Threats

Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney & Scarlet Fu
Featured Guests: Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist), Steve Lamar (President & CEO, American Apparel and Footwear Association), Mark Gurman (Bloomberg Managing Editor, Global Consumer Tech)

Episode Overview

This episode zeroes in on shifting oil prices driven by decreased Middle East tensions following President Trump’s decision to seek a diplomatic off-ramp with Iran. Alongside market implications, hosts Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu discuss the trickle-down effects for consumers and industries, gold's latest cycle, Apple's leadership succession, and the state of tariffs and refunds post-Supreme Court ruling. Expert guests provide data-driven context, market predictions, and insight into policy and corporate strategy.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Oil Market Reacts to Decreased Iran Tension

Guest: Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist
[02:31 – 04:43]

• Oil Pullback:

  • Oil prices are dropping as Middle East tensions ease, particularly with President Trump signaling a drawdown of military pressure on Iran.
  • Quote [02:55]:
    “By the time we get to the midterms, Paul, I think that front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100. Right now it’s $73 a barrel.” – Mike McGlone

• Historical Comparison and Political Influence:

  • Recent highs in oil (up to $120 earlier this year) are considered unsustainable.
  • The U.S., as a net exporter, has policy levers to keep prices down, especially in an election year.
  • Quote [03:23]:
    “Bottom line is we have the leader of the world’s most significant energy producer… who wants prices lower. And there’s election in November.” – Mike McGlone

• Consumer Impact:

  • Gasoline peaked near $4/gallon, diesel at $5.30; both expected to decline.
  • Potential for significant drop in gas prices, possibly $2/gallon.

• Volatility and Market Signals:

  • Stock market volatility remains low; further turmoil in energy/gold may soon spill over into equities.

2. Gold’s Bull Run: Is It Over?

[05:48 – 06:41]

• Gold Loses Steam:

  • Recent peak in gold prices is being viewed as potentially the top for years to come.
  • Parallels drawn with peaks in 1980 and 2011.
  • Quote [06:07]:
    “That bull run’s over, Scarlett. It’s very similar to 1980 and the peak in 2011.” – Mike McGlone

• Market Mechanics:

  • Gold index was highly overextended compared to other commodities and its long-term moving average.

3. Apple CEO Succession: Looking Beyond Tim Cook

Guest: Mark Gurman, Bloomberg Managing Editor, Global Consumer Tech
[09:16 – 14:56]

• Emerging Successor: John Ternus

  • Senior VP of Hardware Engineering, seen as the frontrunner for CEO role.
  • Ternus is positioned as a “continuity pick,” younger than other contenders, and central to Apple’s hardware engineering.
  • Quote [10:58]:
    “This is really going to be the beginning of a new era… John Ternus…is at the center of the action.” – Mark Gurman

• Investor Familiarity and Public Profile:

  • Ternus has taken increasing lead in major product launches and public-facing activities.
  • His presence at March’s MacBook Neo launch is cited as evidence Apple is grooming him.

• Strategic Fit:

  • Ternus' engineering background would reinforce Apple’s focus on hardware, but may not align with a shift to services or AI.
  • Quote [12:57]:
    “If Apple is going to remain a hardware-centric company…he’s the person to take them into the next 15, 20 years.” – Mark Gurman

• Cook’s Statesmanship and Government Ties:

  • Cook’s crucial role in U.S. and China relationships highlighted; he manages connections at the highest level (especially with President Trump).
  • Cook expected to be involved in Apple post-CEO, perhaps as executive chairman, especially as long as Trump remains in office.

4. Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling

Guest: Steve Lamar, American Apparel and Footwear Association
[17:37 – 24:51]

• State of Refunds:

  • Supreme Court invalidated certain tariffs, opening the process for refunds to importers.
  • Process likened to standard government refund mechanisms for customs and taxes.
  • Quote [18:23]:
    “…refunds should be returned the same way they were collected—automatically, fully, quickly to the importer of record.” – Steve Lamar

• Skepticism and Mechanisms:

  • Government must return funds with interest, incentivizing swift repayment.
  • Existing infrastructure for refunds is robust; the number of tariff refund claims is small compared to annual tax refunds.

• Ongoing Policy Risks:

  • The Trump Administration continues advocating for tariffs under other legal provisions (Sections 122 and 301), possibly trying to replicate the struck-down system.

• Impact of Oil on Manufacturing and Logistics:

  • War-driven oil price surges affect not just fuel, but supply chain costs across materials, shipping, and ultimately consumer prices.
  • Ongoing Red Sea disruptions compound logistics challenges.

• Who Pays the Tariffs?

  • Ultimately, costs are absorbed by a mix of importers, manufacturers, and consumers, varying by case and over time.
  • Quote [24:51]:
    “Some tariffs are a cost that’s imposed on the supply chain, and different companies will absorb or pass that cost along…and that will change over time…ultimately…costs…get passed along to consumers.” – Steve Lamar

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Oil’s Future:
  “By the time we get to the midterms… front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100.” – Mike McGlone [02:55]

• On Ending the Gold Rush:
  “That bull run’s over, Scarlett. It’s very similar to 1980 and the peak in 2011.” – Mike McGlone [06:07]

• On Apple’s First Planned CEO Transition:
  “This is really going to be the beginning of a new era… John Ternus…is at the center of the action.” – Mark Gurman [10:58]

• On Tim Cook’s Political Diplomacy:
  “That relationship [with Trump] is managed by one person and one person only, and that’s Tim Cook.” – Mark Gurman [13:52]

• On Tariff Refunds Mechanics:
  “…refunds should be returned the same way they were collected—automatically, fully, quickly to the importer of record.” – Steve Lamar [18:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oil market and geopolitical impact: 02:31 – 05:48
• Gold's market position: 05:48 – 06:41
• Apple succession and Tim Cook's legacy: 09:16 – 14:56
• Tariff refunds post-Supreme Court decision: 17:37 – 24:51

Tone & Style

The podcast maintains a conversational, data-driven, and analytical tone, combining the directness of Bloomberg’s market coverage with accessible, on-the-ground insight from industry experts.

This summary offers a comprehensive snapshot of the episode’s critical discussions, expert perspectives, and market implications—an essential catch-up for investors, executives, and anyone following U.S. energy policy, tech leadership, and trade.