Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary
Episode Title: Oil Pushes Higher With Ukraine Talks and China’s Pledge in Focus
Date: December 29, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney
Key Guests: Mike McGlone (Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence), Michael Regan (Bloomberg Managing Editor for U.S. Equities), Catherine Chiglinski (Bloomberg, Investing Coverage), Mina Farmy (CEO, Sandbar)
Main Theme
This episode dives into the drivers behind oil’s recent price movement amidst ongoing Ukraine talks, examines commodity and global market outlooks for 2026, analyzes major “Big Short” moments in tech and crypto of 2025, explores the renewed rise of big banks versus private credit, and discusses the promise of AI-powered wearables with Sandbar’s latest innovation.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Oil Market Outlook and Impact of Geopolitics
(03:16 – 07:05)
Guest: Mike McGlone
- Current State of Oil:
- WTI crude at $58/barrel: “Really, really low price for oil... Our good friends in the oil patch in Odessa in Midland, Texas, they are not happy.” (Host, 03:16)
- Production still high despite falling prices, but McGlone expects elasticity will kick in.
- Geopolitical Influence:
- Ukraine-Russia situation: If real détente occurs, expect natural gas and gold prices to drop due to increased supply.
- 2026 Forecasts:
- “Range in crude oil can be from around 40 to 70... safely end the year between 55 and 60.”
- U.S. average break-even is about $55. Only sustained prices below that would force big supply cuts.
- Overall bearish on crude, sees current rallies as selling opportunities.
- Commodities & Deflation:
- Predicts continued deflation in grains, energy, and natural gas.
- Crude oil could drop near $40, natural gas near $2, corn down to $3.50—“those are break-even costs.”
- Bearish on Precious Metals:
- Silver: “Most overbought commodity... you have to go back to 1979...” (05:01)
- Expects significant correction: “Yeah, it could get to 100, but it typically will drop towards 50.”
- Gold: “A little different story, but expensive too... never hurts to take some profits.”
- Noted unusual gold rally with low stock market volatility, warning of higher volatility ahead.
Notable Quote:
- “The number one thing I’m worried about is this continued deflation in the elastic commodities... crude oil to get to near 40, natural gas to get near 2. That’s not profound—it’s what’s always happened.” (Mike McGlone, 06:12)
2. Tech & Crypto: The “Big Short,” Rotations, and 2025’s Defining Trades
(11:26 – 16:08)
Guest: Michael Regan
- AI Stock Mania and Contrarian Moves:
- 2025 marked massive highs for AI stocks: Nvidia up ~40%, Palantir up ~140%.
- Michael Burry's hedge fund revealed puts against both, causing a sharp reaction: “He really did throw some cold water on the trade... landed like a thud in the market.” (11:55)
- Since then, those stocks and the Nasdaq haven’t reached new highs.
- Sector Rotations:
- Tech continued to dominate but late-year moves hinted at rotations to cyclical and less-loved sectors.
- “Most years they [tech stocks] are. You look at the Nasdaq 100 performance versus the S&P and it's... where all the growth is.” (14:00)
- Crypto’s Rollercoaster and “Trump Coins”:
- Crypto started strong but ended the year down; meme coins especially volatile.
- “President Trump came in promising to be the crypto president... launching his own meme coins, the Trump coin and the Melania coin...” (15:03)
- Both coins lost most of their value: “Trump’s meme coin... down something like 80 some percent now. Melania’s same thing—down... 99%.”
- Bitcoin Outlook (07:07):
- McGlone likens Bitcoin's peak to silver in 1979—predicts correction toward $50K.
- Points out “unlimited supply of cryptocurrencies” as a structural issue versus the uniqueness of Bitcoin in its early days.
Memorable Quote:
- “You don’t need me to tell you that crypto is risky. But, you know, there’s exhibit A.” (Michael Regan, 16:08)
3. Wall Street’s Power Shift: Big Banks vs. Private Credit
(19:51 – 23:38)
Guest: Catherine Chiglinski
- Return of Big Banks:
- Regulations easing, allowing traditional banks to reclaim share in leveraged loans and major M&A deals.
- “JP Morgan's on track to have its highest annual profit. So, it’s actually been a pretty good time now to be a bank. The balance has really shifted.” (20:37)
- Bank stock prices rebounding—Citigroup’s price-to-book above 1% for the first time in ages.
- Private Credit Still Growing:
- Despite the rebound in banks, “private credit... alternative asset managers... got so big... for so long that I think there’s a little bit more of a scrutinizing eye on those.” (21:45)
- Both sides now competing on major deals (e.g., Warner Brothers Discovery).
- “The amount of firms that were involved in each of those bids, it’s kind of crazy... it was banks, but it was also private credit firms and alternative asset managers.” (23:11)
Notable Quote:
- “It’s revenge of the banks, as Mike Mayo put it... Citigroup we had their price to book ratio climb above 1% for the time in a very long time.” (21:20)
4. The Promise and Challenges of AI Wearables: Stream Ring
(27:10 – 35:20)
Guest: Mina Farmy, CEO, Sandbar
- Product Introduction:
- “Stream has two parts: the stream app… and the stream ring... with a touchpad on the side and a mic on top... hold, speak into it and release and it’ll vibrate to let you know that it heard you.” (27:57)
- Real-World Use Cases:
- Designed for instant note-taking and on-the-go information:
“Ideas will pop up... you’ll want to take a note... or get a little bit of information like ‘what’s new in the markets’... and have that beam straight into your headphones while you’re on your way into work.” (28:52)
- Designed for instant note-taking and on-the-go information:
- Privacy & Security:
- “It only listens when this touchpad is held and the mic only picks up basically what’s right in front of it, so you really have to whisper into it.” (31:08)
- Designed to pass the "bar test"—socially comfortable to wear and use.
- Voice Customization:
- Stream can reply in your own voice, intending to feel like “an extension of your own thinking.”
- “That became a surprising, really nice finish to that design philosophy.” (32:31)
- AI Integration & Future Potential:
- Models handle notes, recall, organization, conversational memory.
- “As those models get more intelligent and more useful, you could imagine this becoming a portal to all kinds of things. You’re querying, you’re prepping... [it] will require advancements beyond what we have today, but that’ll just add to the experience over time.” (33:56)
- Price: $249 in silver, $299 in gold.
- Competitive Landscape:
- Focused on input and user control, positioning as complementary rather than directly competing with devices like Aura or what Sam Altman/Jony Ive are building.
Memorable Quote:
- “Our core design philosophy is that we want stream to feel like an extension of your own thinking...” (32:31)
Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)
- Oil Prices & Elasticity:
- “You basically have to get below those levels [$55] for an elongated period to offset these excesses of global supply versus demand.”
—Mike McGlone (04:20)
- “You basically have to get below those levels [$55] for an elongated period to offset these excesses of global supply versus demand.”
- Precious Metals Warning:
- “Silver is one of the most overbought commodities on the planet... I’m very concerned about things like silver.”
—Mike McGlone (05:01)
- “Silver is one of the most overbought commodities on the planet... I’m very concerned about things like silver.”
- Bitcoin & Crypto Correction:
- “Bitcoin is more likely to head towards 50. That’s a normal correction, particularly if the stock market goes down.”
—Mike McGlone (07:07)
- “Bitcoin is more likely to head towards 50. That’s a normal correction, particularly if the stock market goes down.”
- Michael Burry’s Impact:
- “He really sort of hit a raw nerve, I think in what people’s concerns were about the trade...”
—Michael Regan (12:20)
- “He really sort of hit a raw nerve, I think in what people’s concerns were about the trade...”
- Trump Coins Collapse:
- “Trump’s meme coin had a huge rally at the beginning. It’s down something like 80 some percent now. Melania the same thing—down... 99%.”
—Michael Regan (15:20)
- “Trump’s meme coin had a huge rally at the beginning. It’s down something like 80 some percent now. Melania the same thing—down... 99%.”
- AI Wearables & Human Extension:
- “If we look at how the public and consumers are beginning to view AI, people are, I think, excited by the benefits... but also nervous about whether AI will replace their relationships or replace their jobs.”
—Mina Farmy (32:31)
- “If we look at how the public and consumers are beginning to view AI, people are, I think, excited by the benefits... but also nervous about whether AI will replace their relationships or replace their jobs.”
Important Timestamps
- Oil and commodities: 03:16 – 07:05
- Digital assets outlook: 07:05 – 07:44
- 2025/2026 Tech & Crypto analysis: 11:26 – 16:08
- Big banks vs. private credit: 19:51 – 23:38
- AI wearables—Stream Ring: 27:10 – 35:20
Overall Tone
The tone is analytical but accessible, blending Bloomberg’s data-driven seriousness with conversational ease and straight-shooting assessments from guests.
Summary for Those Who Haven’t Listened
This Bloomberg Intelligence episode unpacks the current and coming year in markets—from oil’s low prices and the uncertain impact of Ukraine-Russia relations, to possible sector rotations away from tech, crypto’s sobering 2025, and the intensified rivalry between traditional banks and private credit. The latter half gives a fascinating window into the evolving daily role of AI, focusing on wearables that promise to make technology more human, not less. Expect practical insights, sharp analysis, and a lively exploration of how financial and technological power dynamics are shifting in real time.