Oil Spikes as Middle East War All But Halts Hormuz Ship Strait

Summary

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Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast

Episode: Oil Spikes as Middle East War All But Halts Hormuz Ship Strait
Date: March 2, 2026
Main Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu, Karen Moscow, Caroline Hyde
Special Guests: Ellen Walt (Transversal Consulting), Dr. Ariel Cohen (Atlantic Council), Wayne Sanders (Bloomberg Intelligence), Ed Price (NYU Anhran)

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Overview

This urgent episode analyzes the dramatic spike in oil prices following severe disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran conflict, exploring the broader geopolitical, economic, and market consequences. Expert guests dissect OPEC’s response, natural gas dynamics, shifting energy supply routes, and the rapid regime change in Iran—plus its cascading effects on defense stocks, U.S. foreign policy, and global alliances.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. OPEC+ Response and Supply Risks

Guest: Ellen Walt, President, Transversal Consulting

• OPEC+ Output Hike: Recent modest increases in output quotas are “more symbolic than anything else,” intended to show markets that OPEC will act quickly if there’s major disruption (02:25).
• Critical Shipping Vulnerabilities:
  • Saudi Arabia and UAE have some capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz (via pipelines, Red Sea ports), but Kuwait and most of Iraq remain nearly 100% reliant on it (03:14).
  • Sky-high tanker rates and war risk insurance have rendered shipping through the Strait prohibitive, “causing a standstill that could rapidly escalate into major problems if it lasts more than a week or two” (03:20, Ellen Walt).
• Winners Amid Crisis: Russia stands to benefit in the short term, able to supply China and potentially India directly and profit as prices soar (04:34).
  • “Putin can also charge more for his oil. So, he is definitely looking at this as more money in his pocketbook now.” (04:51, Ellen Walt)

Notable Quote:

“Even if there is no direct threat from Iran, it’s still too expensive to send a tanker through the Strait.”
—Ellen Walt (03:20)

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2. Asia’s Vulnerability and Energy Domino Effect

• Natural Gas Risks: Spikes in European and Asian natural gas prices anticipated as Qatar shuts down LNG plants—major supply to Asia at risk (05:38).
• Wider Impact on Energy Products: Beyond crude, essential refined products are also caught in the chokehold, threatening major economies in Asia. “Keep an eye on China; they may use economic leverage with Iran to speed a resolution” (05:38, Ellen Walt).

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3. Geopolitical and Military Dimensions

Guest: Dr. Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

• New Nature of Modern War:
  • The current conflict’s immediate targeting of leadership represents a radical departure from previous wars—“warring parties did not go to take out the leadership of the opposing country on the first day. We did, and we did it.” (08:50)
• Securing Hormuz: U.S. and allied ability to keep shipments flowing is critical; extended disruption risks a severe global energy crunch (08:50).
• Houthis & Red Sea Risks: Even Saudi’s Red Sea route is threatened by Houthi activity, turning “the energy chessboard into a vicious circle” (09:43, Cohen).
• Strategic Weapons Impact:
  • “All this equipment is very expensive. This is why folks are investing in weapons companies…”
  • Dr. Cohen flags concern about draining U.S./Israeli munitions reserves amid global commitments (10:30–11:10).
• Iranian Regime Change Uncertainty: The fate of Iran’s IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) is pivotal; internal opposition and foreign actors jockey to shape post-war Iran (11:51).

Notable Quote:

"We’re watching a three-theater circus…certain amount of weapons systems need to be preserved for Europe and for the Pacific, just in case."
—Dr. Ariel Cohen (10:54)

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4. Market & Defense Sector Reactions

Guest: Wayne Sanders, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Defense Stock Rally: U.S. defense primes (Lockheed, RTX, Northrop) surge, centered in missile defense and strike capability as showcased in the U.S.-Israel campaign (14:29).
• Combat System Credibility: Manned fighter aircraft (F-15, F-16, F-22, F-35) prove their dominance; stealth tech highlighted as a key differentiator (14:29).
• Friendly Fire Incident: U.S. jets downed by friendly fire over Kuwait; pilots survive. Radar and identification issues allow such incidents, despite advanced systems (15:39–16:44).
• Iran’s Capabilities:
  • Iran’s stockpile: <1,500 short/medium-range missiles, 100–150 launchers. U.S./Israel rapidly degrade both stockpiles and air defense, allowing near-unimpeded allied air operations (16:52).

Notable Quote:

“It doesn’t do any good to have a missile if you can’t get it into the air.”
—Wayne Sanders (16:52)

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5. Regime Change and Western Policy: The Big Unknown

Guests: Dr. Ariel Cohen, Ed Price (NYU Anhran)

• Endgame in Iran: No clear vision for post-IRGC Iran; uncertainty and factionalism likely.
  • “How these people can sit together and rule Iran, that’s a big question.” (12:38, Cohen)
• U.S. Objectives: Is it regime change, nuclear, or missile disarmament? Intelligence community “doesn’t have great visibility about who or what comes next” (19:09, Senator Warner via Cohen).
• Regime Change “Lite”: Ed Price frames this as “regime change lite—all the caffeine, none of the sugar. There is no plan B” (19:55).
• Diplomacy Limits: UAE, Qatar lobbying for de-escalation; skepticism runs high—“Iran has essentially been at war with the West for 50 years… they started a war they can’t finish and now they want to talk. That’s absurd.” (20:52, Ed Price)

Notable Quotes:

“This is regime change, lite—all the caffeine, none of the sugar… no plan B.”
—Ed Price (19:55)

“International law is a sub-function of Western morality. Western morality is not a sub-function of international law.”
—Ed Price (21:52)

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6. Ripple Effects and Policy Contradictions

• Hard Power vs. Soft Power: Ed Price warns, “We live off our soft power…the funeral of the international rule of law…if we lose our trust, that will reflect in the amount of money that people are willing to lend us.” (22:15–23:03)
• The Conflicted Trump Doctrine: Domestically dangerous, internationally powerful— “He’s crushing our enemies, but we really want to see the rule of law at home, even as we fight and win World War III before it needs to be fought.” (23:13, Price)
• Long-term Geostrategic Shifts: Iranian regime collapse could bring more freedom (esp. for women), but also destabilize the region, feed global Russia-China dynamics, and stress Western alliances (24:22–25:18). European allies’ leadership seen as lackluster: “I’d like to see a full-throated Western alliance…Germany needs to rearm anyway.” (27:25–27:38, Price)

Notable Quote:

“It may not [get] any better, but it will certainly be more scared.”
—Ed Price on the next Iranian regime (28:16)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• OPEC+ Response & Strait of Hormuz Risks: 02:02–04:20
• Winners and Export Flows (Russia/China): 04:20–05:31
• Natural Gas & Asia Impact: 05:31–06:38
• Geopolitics & Regime Change Analysis: 08:16–13:13
• Defense Stocks & Friendly Fire/Fighter Jets: 14:07–16:44
• Iran’s Missile Capabilities: 16:44–17:43
• Regime Change, Western Policy, Trump: 18:51–28:26

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Memorable Moments & Quotes (w/ Timestamps)

• “Even if there is no direct threat from Iran, it's still too expensive to send a tanker through the Strait.”
  —Ellen Walt (03:20)

• “We’re watching a three-theater circus…certain amount of weapons systems need to be preserved for Europe and for the Pacific, just in case.”
  —Dr. Ariel Cohen (10:54)

• “It doesn’t do any good to have a missile if you can’t get it into the air.”
  —Wayne Sanders (16:52)

• “This is regime change, lite—all the caffeine, none of the sugar… no plan B.”
  —Ed Price (19:55)

• “International law is a sub-function of Western morality. Western morality is not a sub-function of international law.”
  —Ed Price (21:52)

• “It may not [get] any better, but it will certainly be more scared.”
  —Ed Price (28:16)

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Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive real-time window into how war in the Middle East has throttled global oil flows, with direct blowback on prices, market volatility, and geopolitics. Guests emphasize the perils of over-reliance on choke points like Hormuz, highlight the surge in defense sector fortunes, and caution about the profound consequences—intended and unintended—of hard-power U.S. foreign policy. The panel underscores both the opportunities and the unknowns within an unstable and evolving global energy and security landscape.

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Transcript

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[Karen Moscow]

Want to talk more about the oil markets and the impact that the Iran attack might have on them with Ellen Walt, president of Transversal Consulting. So, Ellen, I want to just start with OPEC plus because they already responded pretty quickly by increasing quotas slightly, not a major output hike. But is this really more symbolic than anything else?

[Ellen Walt]

Yeah, I think that what we saw from the output hike and the, the swiftness which, which with which they, they did this is really a signal to the market that should there be any kind of major disruptions that OPEC is absolutely willing to hike production very swiftly to accommodate that. Now, obviously the big question is, well, if the major oil producers here, Saudi Arabia, you know, Iraq, Kuwait, the uae, you know, if they're experiencing any kind of disruptions to, to both either their Oil infrastructure or just the ability to get that oil out of, out of the Middle east, that may not be all that helpful. And we're really going to see reliance on places like Kazakhstan, for example, to, to increase output.

[Caroline Hyde]

How do producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE factor into market stability in this scenario?

[Ellen Walt]

I would say they're, they're really key right now. What's interesting is that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia don't rely 100% on, on the Persian Gulf to get their oil out. Kuwait, most of Iraq, and they are entirely, almost entirely reliant really, on, on the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia does have a way to get oil out through the Red Sea, and the UAE has pipelines that go around the Strait of Hormuz. But still a lot of their oil is still set up and oil products as well to go out through the Strait of Hormuz. And we've seen, as you mentioned, that tanker rates are sky high. So, you know, even if there is no direct threat from Iran, it's still too expensive to send a tanker through the street either to pick up oil or to, to get it out. And so this is really causing a standstill that if it continues for, you know, a week or even two, could really start to cause major problems.

[Karen Moscow]

Ellen, if there is a winner in all of this, you say that would be Russia, at least in the short term. Right? Because I guess it's would be able to flow unobstructed to, to its biggest oil consumer, which is China.

[Ellen Walt]

Exactly. China is really, you know, it has the biggest problem with oil not being able to get out of the Persian Gulf because it consumes a huge amount from there, but it also consumes a large amount of Russian oil, and it can get that oil without having to go through the Persian Gulf. So I would not be surprised if, you know, this continues to see China increasing its imports from Russia more. And as oil prices go up, Putin can also charge more for, for his oil. So he is definitely looking at this. As you know, there's more money in his pocketbook now, and he's potentially got another, more, more space to sell his oil to the customers that will buy it. Another question is, will India, which recently committed to stop buying Russian oil, feel that it needs to go back to purchasing Russian oil to offset the losses that it's suffering because it can't get oil from the Persian Gulf?

[Caroline Hyde]

What are some key potential red flags that you'd be watching in the coming weeks in terms of oil markets?

[Ellen Walt]

Yeah, I think the biggest issue, I think we're looking for right now, I think, spikes in natural gas prices in Europe and also in Japan and in other Asian countries. Qatar has shut down its LNG plants and they're a major supplier to Asia. And so, you know, they're really we're going to be looking for big spikes there. And then as well, we're talking not just crude oil, but also products are major things that are going through the Strait of Hormuz. And so it will be very important to keep an eye on that, particularly Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, these are all countries that get huge amounts of these vital products from the Middle East. And so I'd be keeping a very close eye on what China is doing. I know that they recently started talking to the Iranians. It will be interesting to see if they try to bring their economics leverage to push the Iranians to kind of bring this to a swifter resolution.

[Ed Price]

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[Karen Moscow]

We did hear earlier, though, Nora from, from the defense secretary, from the chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff about this operation, Operation Epic Fury, Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary saying that Iran had a gun to our head as he defended this attack.

[Caroline Hyde]

Right. And there was also some discussion about the fact that Hegseth saying that he didn't want to say too much in terms of granularities as to not expose some of their plans, to quote the enemy. So that's also been something that we are keeping an eye on. But to talk about this and more, we're joined by Dr. Ariel Cohen, senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. There's been a lot of developments happening, a lot of things that happened through the weekend. And we're really seeing a lot of it spilling into today on Monday. Talk to us about what you're watching and what your main takeaways are of all these geopolitical tensions.

[Dr. Ariel Cohen]

The first takeaway is how radically the character of war has changed. If you think about World War I, World War II, even Vietnam, warring parties did not go to take out the leadership of the opposing country on the first day. We did and we did it. Secondly, the two things I'm watching very carefully is whether or not the US Navy and the allies, including the Arab countries right in the Gulf, can secure the shipment of oil through the state of Hormuz for now, for first couple of days, the shipment dropped, the oil prices went to 80. Our economy can live with oil at 80. It lived with oil at much higher prices. However, if it goes on for weeks and months, that's a different story because 20 plus percent of global oil and good amount of LNG liquefied natural gas ship through the Strait of Hormuz. It's a narrow straight, it's something like, you know, two miles or something like that. Now, luckily, there's a lot of product, there is oil that Saudi Arabia can ship to the Red Sea. Now there's a problem with the Red Sea because of the Houthis. And Houthis are supported and equipped and trained by Iran. So you see the vicious circle here. So the strategic goal is to enact enough damage to the ruling regime in Iran. So the transition to a non Islamist regime, non IRGC dominated regime starts to happen. And I think it's too early to tell whether or not this is going to happen, how fast and how messy it's going to be. Iran is messy historically and probably is going to be messy now. And finally, I'm watching the amounts of ammo the US and the Israelis are shooting, be it missile defense, be it rockets, offensive rockets, bombs, etc. Because all this equipment is very expensive. This is why folks are investing in weapons companies and we, the Pentagon, the US Needs a supply, strategic supply of these weapons systems in Europe, in the Pacific, just in case. And this is a three theater circus, three three circus show that we're watching because certain amount of these weapons systems need to be preserved for Europe and for the Pacific.

[Karen Moscow]

And Dr. Cohen, when we look at what happens now, what happens next, right? Who will, what will the new regime in Iran look like? Even President Trump said that his picks for the next leader has been killed. So what what can we expect from the new regime and will it be any better and friendlier to to global relations than the prior regime?

[Dr. Ariel Cohen]

The main question is whether irgc, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, are going to stay in power. This is a combination of the military, elite military and secret police. So imagine the SS&Waffen SS in Nazi Germany or KGB and internal security troops in the Soviet Union. It is a characteristic of a totalitarian state where you have a merger of internal security and the military. The regular military, the Artesh, has not stepped in yet. And I believe that the US And Israel are talking to folks inside Iran, be it supporters of the shah with her chants for Reza Shah Pahlavi, heir of the throne, the son of the last shah, be it reformers. So there are a lot of people. How these people can sit together and rule Iran, that's a big question. But the elites, the urban folks, the educated folks all repudiated the current theocratic dictatorship that killed 30,000 of their own people.

[Ed Price]

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[Caroline Hyde]

But continuing on in this conversation, we'd like to talk with Wayne Sanders. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior defense weapons analyst. I've been keeping an eye, Wayne, on some of the stocks moving, at least in terms of some of the US Defense names, and we're seeing them rallying on the day. Not too much of a surprise. What's your takeaway from the developments here and as this relates to weaponry more broadly?

[Nathan Hager]

Yeah, absolutely. Thank you so much for having me on. We put out some research over the weekend. One of the biggest things that we've noticed right US Defense primes like, like Lockheed, RTX and Northrop, they're really at the center of the air missile defense and strike capabilities that are underscored by the US Israel campaign against Iran right now. And so it's being able to show that crude systems, piloted systems, excuse me, piloted systems continue to be at the forefront of this, right? F22s, F16s, F15 strike, eag in the F35, obviously for air dominance, all of these have played a really critical role in here. It starts to show that the work into stealth technology continues to be one of the key pieces that's going to continue to be pressed. They're proving, they're proving their nature, they're proving their importance to it. And then you're also seeing that from the naval power, it ends up continuing to be a very powerful button for the President to use to be able to bring up these carrier strike groups, excuse me, to go out there, aircraft carriers, along with these guided missile destroyers, to be able to provide not only only a level of air defense, but then also air superiority as well as long range strike capability.

[Karen Moscow]

And Wayne, this morning we got word from the US that US jets were shot down over Kuwait in apparent friendly fire in a friendly fire incident. Thankfully, the crew that were in those jets were able to jettison out of them and last we heard they're in stable condition at a hospital. But can you tell us more about those jets and what was destroyed there?

[Nathan Hager]

Yeah, when you look at some of the F15 capabilities and all that, right. Air defense is normally. Right. They come as different pieces. You have a radar system that's actually used specifically to identify the signal itself. Then you have to be able to put it together with an interceptor that's going to be able to shoot it down. And so what happened in some of these is I believe that the radars themselves, when you try to differentiate identify friend versus foe ends up being a key piece of this. Right. There are specific signatures that different aircraft comes on. If they, if you override that and you shoot at it anyway, it's something that can be on there. But all this, all the, the pilots are safe even though these aircraft were affected.

[Caroline Hyde]

So how would you characterize Iran's current missile and drone capabilities, especially the ones that are being used in this war?

[Nathan Hager]

Yeah, working looking through some of the US income data and all that. Right. I think right now you're looking at Iran having below 1,500 missiles total for these short range ballistic missiles and medium range ballistic missiles. But the bigger tell there is on the missile launchers themselves because you're looking at somewhere between 100 to 150 missile launchers total. Doesn't do any good to have a missile if you can't get into the air. And so the US And Israel have been very, very effective at targeting the stockpiles for the missiles themselves, but also the launchers that shoot them. And then the air defense capabilities have been very much decimated at this point in time, which is why you see so many F22s, F15s, F16s that are in F35s that are able to fly somewhat unimpeded in Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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[Karen Moscow]

One of the big questions now is what happens next in the war with Iran and, and with regime change there. And Senator Martin Mark Warner, who's a member of the Gang of Eight, spoke with Bloomberg this weekend on Sunday and he said there are still questions about what comes next for Iran.

[Dr. Ariel Cohen]

Is the goal Iran's nuclear capability? Is it the ballistic missiles? Regime change? And let me acknowledge the fact that the Iranian leadership, the supreme Leader, is taken out. I mean that is good news. I mean this regime is awful. But, but I can tell you from the intelligence standpoint, we don't have great visibility about who or what comes next.

[Karen Moscow]

And we're going to put that question now to our next guest, Edward Price, non resident senior fellow at NYU Anhran, joining us here in the studio. And I mean, I guess that really is the question, right? What comes next? Because what comes next could write the script for decades to come in the Middle East.

[Ed Price]

I think that's correct. But there is no script Right. I mean, this is regime change, light, L I T E, all of the caffeine, none of the sugar. And in plan A, we're going to go and kill the bad guy, which by the way, if you give me a chance to argue is a good thing. But there is no plan B. And so this is maybe a reaction long term to the war on terror and 20 years of pootling around in the Middle east for no good reason. And I think that it's something that we as American citizens should think very carefully about because we're not spreading democracy so much as we are making the world safer for democracy.

[Caroline Hyde]

Well, I do want to touch on this redhead crossing the Bloomberg terminal. The UAE and Qatar lobby allies to persuade Trump to end Iran war soon. Going back to our conversation with Ed Price here, I wanted to talk about whether or not do you think that diplomacy could still realistically de escalate this conflict?

[Karen Moscow]

No, because Trump, Trump has said Iran wants to speak. They want to come back to the table. Do we believe this?

[Ed Price]

I mean, they always want to come back to the table. But let's get down to, you know, brass tacks. Iran has effectively been at war with the west for some 50 years. It has been undermining our society. Funding terror October 7, by the way, has Iran's fingerprints all over it. So they started a war that they can't finish and now they want to talk. I mean, that's absurd.

[Karen Moscow]

Earlier, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in the first press conference we really had since the war this weekend, basically said, when asked, you know, why now? He said, It's 47 years of a violent regime of a belligerent Iran. He said, we didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. So in terms of timing, is this just because they were able to get the Ayatollah and his leaders in one place at one time and saw opportunity?

[Ed Price]

Yeah, and why not, frankly? I mean, this is effectively the United States fighting and winning World War III before World War 3 needs to be fought and won. And it's very uncomfortable for Western populations because we all grew up on the first mover of Adolf Hitler and we think that moving first is morally wrong somehow. But I would remind your audience that international law is a sub function of Western morality. Western morality is not a sub function of international law. So if we've created a situation for a terror state to again murder people on October 7th unprovoked, and they get murdered themselves and they want to talk again, I repeat myself, it's absurd.

[Caroline Hyde]

You say that there is a foot race between using our hard power today and losing our soft power, including the dollar standard. Explain that.

[Ed Price]

Well, I think what we're witnessing are two funerals. The funeral of Iran's rule of terror, and that's a good thing. And then of course, the funeral of the international rule of law, which is a mixed bag. I just suggested that if international law is not working to keep us safe, then it should be revisited. But breaking international law in so brazen away also encourages our adversaries to do the same. And ultimately, what I mean about the dollar is that we live off of our soft power. We have alliance. People lend us a lot of money that is used to buy very nice kit that we saw in the last few days being used. And so ultimately, if we lose our trust, if we lose our soft power, that will reflect in the amount of money that people are willing to lend us.

[Karen Moscow]

I'm just looking at your notes here, Ed. You say Trump at home is as dangerous to our republic as Trump abroad is as powerful for the West. Just tell us more about that.

[Ed Price]

I mean, this is the ultimate confusion, right? So someone like me, small l, liberal, very, very hand wringing about Trump for the last decade, and I've said before that I think he's encouraging forces in our country that are pre1776. They're the sort of forces that don't necessarily believe in the rule of law at home. One example, if I had to say, as an immigrant to this country, as a naturalized citizen, what I think the United States is in its essence, I would say no secret police. And yet we have ice on the streets. So there's one example of what I mean about the domestic problem in the republic with President Trump. On the other hand, again, I'm confused because abroad he's kind of hitting it out of the ballpark right now. He's crushing our enemies, he's confiscating communists, and he's taking out the bad guys. So what we would really want to see, I think, is something closer to the rule of law at home. Even if we're going to, as I say, fight and win World War III before it needs to be fought. But there will be a cost to this kind of delinquent behavior.

[Caroline Hyde]

What do you think of the potential ripple effects of this? I mean, we've already seen it kind of spreading in terms of the gulf more broadly. But I'm curious what you think maybe the extra layers may be.

[Ed Price]

Well, if we do it properly and we truly crush the Iranian Regime, good things will happen. Right. I mean, for one, there will be freedom for women in that country. They've been oppressed brutally so for decades. If you're asking about second order effects in the wide regime and in the wider region, I should say, I always imagine the Ukraine war and the war with Iran is one war. Right. If you just flip the map on its side.

[Karen Moscow]

I was going to ask about that. Yeah.

[Ed Price]

You can see quite clearly that it's one theater. Right. And you've got Kaliningrad, you've got Poland and Ukraine and then Iran, and they're all in a very similar area now. Why is that? Because the Russians are pushing forward, and in Russian history, they always push forward to the sea. Then you need warm water ports. Maybe that will change with climate change. But that's why they're allied with it. Yeah, that's why they're allied with Iran. And Iran needs Russian support. So the first second order effect I think about is in the Kremlin and what Putin is thinking about the loss of an ally, the potential loss of Iran.

[Karen Moscow]

I'm not asking you to get into President Trump's head, but he has, you know, in the past criticized U.S. presidents for military intervention that resulted in the removal of a world leader. He said that it would destabilize the region and fuel terrorism. He's now president and maybe to him the world looks different. But why do you think? Because it really is quite an about face.

[Ed Price]

I mean, President Trump is the master of the about face. Right? I mean, the stuff that comes out of his mouth, you can't keep up with it. You need one of those FBI walls with the string and the sticky notes. Right. It's too difficult. But I think the key difference is boots on the ground. And if we go back to the global war on terror, we committed our land forces to a region that ultimately didn't want us there. I mean, it's better now than it was 20 years ago, but I'll stand by this until I'm dead. The Iraq War was a huge mistake. A huge mistake.

[Karen Moscow]

And Trump said that as well, and he was right.

[Ed Price]

Okay? We should have hit Iran 25 years ago, frankly. So it's a complex picture. But if we are now at a point in our history where we have the complex technology strategy such that, as you say, we can find all these bad guys in one room and with the help of Israel, take them out, why not?

[Caroline Hyde]

I kind of want to continue with the theme of previous Middle east conflicts. What have you taken away from historical patterns or what we've seen in history and what's being present today or maybe not present.

[Ed Price]

Well, I mean, as a Brit, there's a lot of history that the British are responsible for and there are a lot of, you know, I mean, we don't need to go into the history of Sykes Picot, but there's a lot of lines in that area that are not necessarily helpful to that region. And I think that the previous imperial era that we were in had a very clear objective, which was to avoid a single Arab power. Right. So that's why there's a lot of different countries in that region and I think that they've been arguing about that ever since. And of course there's also the split in Islam. Right. So Iran is not mainstream Islam and has to come up with other reasons to be, to be relevant on the Arab stream street. They're not Arabs, so probably a long term trend towards less chaos. I say that tentatively and hopefully, but of course it's a place that has a lot of wars and we've seen Afghanistan, Pakistan recently. So I don't expect that to stop soon.

[Karen Moscow]

Speaking of Britain, they have put their support behind, thrown their support behind the US and Israel. I believe so has Germany and France. Do you see how might their participation, their active part. What might their active participation look like?

[Ed Price]

It's not even leading from behind, is it with, with the current European Union and the uk? I mean, I'm very disappointed in the British Prime Minister. I feel like he's waiting for the British Prime Minister to tell him what to do. It's really not, not the way to do it. Let me answer that by saying what I'd like to see, which is a full throated Western alliance against this regime in Iran that has been terrorizing US and Israel for years. Get together, sort it out, put properly and get, get fully involved. I mean, Germany needs to rearm anyway.

[Karen Moscow]

You know, I'm hearing though from others saying, you know, the regime, the new regime may not be any better than the regime we just took out. What are your thoughts on that?

[Ed Price]

It may not be any better, but it will certainly be more scared.

[Karen Moscow]

More scared.

[Ed Price]

Oh yeah. Oh yeah. So now we can. There's a lot of stick going on and a lot less carrot.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 10am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

[Nathan Hager]

This is Special Agent Riegel, Special Agent Bradley Hall.

[Ed Price]

The time is approximately 11:15am about to

[Nathan Hager]

start consensual telephone call with Dr. Daiwa Zhang.

[Barry Ritholtz]

China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy

[Ed Price]

agencies in the world. But in 2017, the FBI got inside. Wait.

[Nathan Hager]

I'd never seen that much evidence in my entire career, and I don't think we'll ever see that much evidence again. I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question of his life.

[Dr. Ariel Cohen]

And that's a unicorn.

[Ed Price]

This is a story of the infant

[Nathan Hager]

inner workings of the MSS and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets.

[Ed Price]

Listen to the Six Bureau from Bloomberg

[Nathan Hager]

Podcasts starting on February 13th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.