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Paul Sweeney
The big I think news that probably really surprised people to the upside was this news on Advanced Micro Devices. Signing that deal with OpenAI and amd just ripping adding $100 million in market cap today on that news. The numbers around these AI stories are just bigger and bigger every single time. I tell you it makes me feel uncomfortable. Some of the numbers that are being thrown around makes me think about I woke up this morning looking at this news. I felt like man it just feels toppy to me this whole AI story.
Host/Announcer
Toppy as in early 2007 or like mid 2007 or late 2007.
Paul Sweeney
I don't know. It just feels like there's just too many big numbers being thrown around too quickly. I'm not sure where the returns are. It's one of those types of things. But Ed Ludlow, this is his bailiwick. He's a Bloomberg Tech co host. He is out there in Silicon Valley supposedly. Who knows where this guy is all the time. Ed, what do you make of this news? These are some Big names, Open Air, amd.
Ed Ludlow
Yeah, I mean, the deal. The specifics of the deal are really important. What is OpenAI going to use AMD's technology for? It's going to use it for inference. In other words, running the models that already exist, not training them. It is 6 gigawatts of capacity. The reason that that figure is critical is that it equates to the peak electricity demand of most major US Cities. Like, these are huge numbers, as you say. But it just speaks to what's happening to the mind of the participants in the industry, which is they will need this capacity. You guys are using words like top and bubble, and I think that's completely fair. Maybe you saw my column this morning on the debt role in what's happening. But I would say that AMD has done something interesting here, which is different to what Nvidia did, which is they will issue stock to OpenAI. AMD shares going to OpenAI, but only once OpenAI has spent some money and actually built some stuff. So where's Open Air going to get the money?
Host/Announcer
Well, that's why Sam Altman has been traveling the world, meeting with all kinds of investors, trying to get some funding. You said the specifics matter, Ed, but we don't know how much this partnership, this deal, is worth beyond the very generic tens of billions of dollars. Right? That could be $10 billion. That could be $99 billion.
Ed Ludlow
Yes, that's correct. I mean, AMD CFO framed it as being tens of billion dollars of revenue opportunity. But that's why I think the specifics of the terms I've made a careful examination of them are really important to understand versus what Nvidia did with OpenAI. So Nvidia said it was going to invest $100 billion into OpenAI. We don't even know if that was cash or chips in lieu of cash. But basically Nvidia would get some equity in Open Air in return. In this instance, AMD and OpenAI. Open air is getting AMD shares, but they are deliverable in tranches against milestones which relate to literally building the data centers. So for each gigawatt of capacity that comes online, Nvidia would then say, okay, I'm sorry, AMD would then say, here is this tranche of stock. And that's why I'm saying focus on the Open Air obligation here. They need actual money to dig up the dirt, put the foundations in, get the data center up and put the servers in right before any of this stock comes into play.
Paul Sweeney
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
Paul Sweeney
Got an M and A trade in the regional bank business. I think it's kind of a big one. I like this one. Fifth Third bank corporate buying Comerica for about $10.9 billion in stock. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Keith Bretton Woods. Those are the bankers getting paid. I always take a look at that. First and foremost. I go to the last paragraph of every column, every story about it, M and A trade to see who gets paid. Herman Chan joins us here. He covers the regional banks for Bloomberg Intelligence. You like this deal Herman?
Herman Chan
Yeah, I think it's a win win for both. Comerca has been sort of in the doldrums over the past couple of years after the SBB debacle. It's taken some long time to get it under its own footing and they've gotten a lot of agitated, agitated investors and activists pushing for a sale and this was a great outcome. On the other hand for fifth third it's a great deal. It moves them into growth growth year markets in Texas and California, supplements their Michigan presence and really builds out their branching presence across the Southeast and Southwest.
Host/Announcer
So within the regional banking space, what does this deal put pressure on? Who does this deal put pressure on to make a move of their own?
Herman Chan
Yeah, so that's a question, the follow on question like who's next? So there are other banks that are operating within the size of of a fifth third that have also done deals like a PNC and Huntington. And the others that are still on the sidelines are banks like regions in the Southeast, Key Corp. Ohio as well and M and T and Citizens in the Northeast. So those are the ones that probably are going to get asked a lot of Questions on the 3:2 earnings call about M and A.
Paul Sweeney
So what do we know about the Trump administration and its view towards bank consolidation? Are they opined on this at all?
Herman Chan
Yes. So we can see that these bank deals are getting approved at much faster clip. So I mentioned Huntington earlier. They're buying a bank in Texas named Veritex and and it's going to take them about 98 days from deal close for merger announcements. And that contrasts with under the Biden administration. It's taken 400 to 600 days for a large really deal. So these deals under Trump are being fast tracked and it's really encouraging the management teams to really go out there and search for deals.
Host/Announcer
So for so long a lot of people had commented that the US is overbanked. By one count there is almost 4,500 FDIC insured banking institutions here. Are we still overbanked Herman?
Herman Chan
I would say so. There's a lot of competition this and that's the reason why Comerica is looking to sell because they they were lacking in a retail branch presence. They mostly bank middle market commercial customers that are great but it doesn't create the diversity that they needed during times of stress like the SBB environment. And so that was A lesson learned for, for a lot of the banking industry that you need to diversify your depos. And, and one way to diversify is the sell to a larger organization.
Host/Announcer
Which segment of the banking industry is bloated, needs to streamline the most.
Herman Chan
Yes. So there you mentioned 4,500 banks like is. Does there need to be that many banks within the United States? Probably not. They don't have the scale to operate a retail branch presence. They don't have the, the capabilities on the fee side and the advisory side to really help their customers on the commercial side. And you see so much from not only larger banks but also the fintechs that are just, you know, biting at the heels on the consumer side. So it's a really tough operating environment and we expect more consolidation over the next several years.
Paul Sweeney
All right, riddle me this year, why do banks even have branches? I hear banks, I'm not adding branches. I've been into a branch in years.
Host/Announcer
Across the street from Bloomberg headquarters. Citigroup.
Herman Chan
Citi branch right across the. A lot of it is marketing because. And a lot of it is scale. So for a bank like Fifth third, they're growing organically in the Southeast and that's been a major growth driver for them.
Paul Sweeney
I need a branch.
Herman Chan
You don't need a branch, but you need the branch for a marketing aspect. So you need a big company.
Host/Announcer
Right.
Herman Chan
It's a big billboard.
Host/Announcer
Big expensive billboard.
Herman Chan
Yeah. In markets where you have a lot of foot traffic and higher growth markets. So it's a big billboard and it's been a proven growth driver for banks. But on the other hand, branches are declining. So if you have critical mass and scale in your existing markets, you can trim your branch presence and not affect your depositors. But if you're entering new markets, then opening new branches is the way to think.
Paul Sweeney
I could find my checkbook.
Host/Announcer
That raises a question. Does a fintech that wants to be a bank need to therefore have a retail presence? Do they need to open up a branch also across the street from our office?
Herman Chan
So that's, that's the beauty of the fintech motto is that they're issuing the branches. It's not a requirement, it's a lower cost to serve because you don't have the physical retail presence. And it's one way to really compete effectively with these, with these legacy banks where you have a really easy to use app and you, you aren't burdened by this cost basis of owning the physical presence.
Paul Sweeney
All right, so when we had a couple little blow ups in your world. A couple of years ago I found this KRE the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF.
Herman Chan
That's right.
Paul Sweeney
How are the regional banks trading these days?
Herman Chan
Yeah, so they're really doing all right. We're talking about price the tangibles around 1.5 to 1 point times ish. During the height of the weakest point during the SBB debacle, it was less than one time. So they've rebounded really nicely despite some of uncertainty on the economy and with tariffs and and so we've seen some growth from them, especially on the commercial lending side. That's really helped grow their top line.
Paul Sweeney
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Paul Sweeney
A management change in the telecom space. Verizon Communications named Dan Schulman chief executive officer, replacing Hans Vesberg. That's effective immediately. Looking over at the stock for Verizon, down 4% today, although it's up about 4% year to date. Let's see what this means for Verizon and for the telecom space. We're joined by John Butler, senior telecom analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, down there in our Princeton office. Hey, John. So a change at the top for Verizon. Was this expected or is this something new for the company?
John Butler
Not at all, Paul. I mean, you know, when you think merger Monday, I've had a lot of busy Mondays lately, but the last piece of news I expected was this change in leadership at Verizon. The company had really been sort of, I guess prepping the head of the consumer business or grooming is a better word. Some Orion Sampath who is just a phenomenal talent in my opinion, and he's been sort of pushed out there doing a lot of investor conferences and giving the investment community the impression that he was the next in line. So when the news broke this morning that Dan is taking over as CEO, it really surprised a lot of people, including me.
Paul Sweeney
So what's the company saying here? Why do you think they chose this outsider versus somebody that, again, an insider that maybe the street thought was going to be the next in line?
John Butler
You know, I think for telecoms, all three of the majors, the wireless business is slowing very rapidly on them. We're seeing subscriber growth down a lot this year. There's a lot of pressure on pricing. And I think the thought is Dan Shulman used to be CEO of PayPal. He's got experience at Amex in the consumer finance business. So they're thinking in terms of how to monetize the 150 million consumer relationships they have to move into adjacencies. The naming of Schulman in my mind tells me they're looking to tap the consumer finance market. You know, they've already got a credit card business. I think it's probably doing pretty well, but they're not actually in the loan business there, but they're doing a lot of device financing. And so I think the hope, maybe this is my speculation, maybe that they can take that perhaps a step deeper into the consumer finance market and maybe other adjacencies to be able to monetize that base a little bit more and diversify away from the slowdown in wireless less.
Paul Sweeney
You know, Verizon, they've kind of dabbled over the years in other businesses purchasing AOL and Yahoo. So what's the focus going forward here? Is it to try to just manage the wireless business as you know, the decline in the wireless business as best they can?
John Butler
So again, it's the strategy here, Paul, I think is to sort of build off that base that they have. The wireless business is stable. It's not going anywhere. It's typically a GDP plus business. Again, we're seeing a slowdown now, so it could move down to a GDP like growth rate. But again, it's all about extension. So all three of the majors here are pushing hard into consumer broadband. They're doing very well. They're both in the fiber and the fixed wireless access business business. But even that business is starting to mature a bit as it saturates here in the US So the question becomes what's next? And maybe the what's next could be consumer finance. If you look at T Mobile, they've tapped the outdoor advertising market which actually is growing double digit. I never would have guessed. But there the thought is, hey, as people carry around these phones, we know where they are, are perhaps we can leverage that and come up with very innovative ways of increasing eyeballs on our outdoor advertising. So I think they're looking for that type of creative thinking to come up with new ways of generating growth. And again, you're trying to leverage that huge core base of wireless subs that you have.
Paul Sweeney
Just looking at their balance sheet, John, this is a, this is company Verizon, it's got $170 billion of total debt there. How's the, how does the market feel about their balance sheet?
John Butler
So I think of the big three, Verizon is probably at a point where they want to be in terms of financing the business. Can they load on a bunch more debt? It's, it's hard to say. I'm going to defer to our credit analyst for that, Steve Flynn, but I don't view their ability to finance new ventures as an issue here at all. It's a very cash rich business. Wireless that is. And you know, I think that will allow Verizon to bankroll any of the new ventures they plan to push into from here.
Paul Sweeney
And one thing I certainly Pro shareholders is 6.6% dividend yield. Is that safe?
John Butler
I think it is safe. That's a good question. I think Verizon of the big three really sort of gets it when it comes to the importance of the dividend to the investment community. There's a lot of telecoms out there at and T included that have cut the dividend in the past and learned the hard way that that really, I call it the third rail of telecom. I mean you do not want to cut the dividend. Yeah. So my call here is that I think the dividend is safe. Yes.
Paul Sweeney
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
Paul Sweeney
Let's get an update on what's going on in the auto industry, particularly its transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles. I'm not sure where we are in the process now if we've kind of lost some momentum or what's going on there, but let's check in with our next guest. They have some thoughts here. Adrian Balfour. He's a founder and chairman of and Vorso. Joining us and Warso is a consulting firm specializing in digital transformation, AI and software driven innovation with a focus in part on the auto industry. Adrian, thanks so much for joining us here. Give us a sense of kind of where you think we are here in this country and then we can go globally if you want on this I guess. Transition to electric vehicles?
Adrian Balfour
Yeah, no thanks for having me. I think, you know if you take a look at it, we are transitioning to an electric vehicle sort of infrastructure and a future going forward with software defined vehicles. Various sort of like companies have got certain advantages over others. Companies like Stellantis have pulled back a little bit. I think some of the traditional autos have spent too much money on it and have achieved less than stellar results and they tend to be pulling back a little bit. Whereas companies like Tesla lucid Rivian are kind of pushing forward. I think overall the next sort of 2026, 2027, you're going to see an increasing acceptance of the electrical vehicle market as we go forward in the marketplace.
Host/Announcer
Yeah, your former employer Ford, among those legacy automakers that have perhaps spent too much and maybe aren't seeing enough return. In the meantime, where are we, Adrian, now that the 70$500 US tax credit is gone, how much, how much momentum did that halt?
Adrian Balfour
I think, you know, you saw like a 7%, 7.4% I think increase in quarter to quarter revenues for Tesla. I think that's going to be hard to sustain going into Q4. So that will be difficult primarily because it was a bit of a pull ahead. But as you look going into 2026, you're going to see in particular with Tesla, with the advances of a sort of sub $30,000 model, Ford are working hard to come out with a sub $30,000 model as well. So I think there's a big shift to apply software defined vehicles. But the major issue is that the costs went too high. So a lot of the automotive makers are now focusing on the sub $30,000 category to try and get something in there to try and get a sort of market presence. In particular, I'm interested in seeing how Tesla's launch goes with the Model 2. And I think if that goes well and if you can get some of the robo taxi legislation slash provides pilots to improve, I think you're going to see a really big uptick because the technology is pretty cool.
John Butler
Right?
Host/Announcer
Well, you mentioned a couple of times a sub 30,000 EV and of course we're not there yet, but you do see that around the world Chinese EVs are cheap and incredibly technologically advanced and they're available everywhere except the United States. Do we get to a point where we might one day see Chinese made EVs in the U.S.
Adrian Balfour
I think that's, that's, that's an ecumenical decision up to the Congress. So I think right now there's very serious sort of tariffs on the Chinese vehicles coming into the US And I think the idea there is to give the US Automakers a chance to play catch up. I mean if you go to Europe, you will see some $30,000 Chinese EVs that are really high quality. And I think it's really in the US we're really sort of like playing catch up a little bit. So I think the tariffs there are there designed to give us a head start or to give us a, well, not a Head start, but catch up time.
Host/Announcer
Play catch up.
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Paul Sweeney
What's this mean? The GMs, the Volkswagens? I mean, it's a tough game for them because they got to wean themselves off of these ice cars, vehicles that make a lot of money for them, F150 trucks and whatnot. How do you think they're going to work this out?
Adrian Balfour
Well, it's like, it's like every sort of transition in the economy. You know, the traditional automakers come from a sort of modular basis where they buy modules from multiple suppliers. So you may have 100 modules in a particular vehicle or 100 plus modules in a particular vehicle and they have to integrate that together. That's a very complex sort of scenario versus something like a Chinese EV that's a startup, or a Tesla where they have two to three modules in the vehicle that they have to integrate. So it's a different framework from where you're coming from. And so the automakers in the US have got the capital, they've got the experience and they've got the knowledge they will pull it off. They just need time to get there. They have to move from over 100 modules down to less than 10, and they got to do that within three to four years. It's a difficult challenge.
Host/Announcer
It's a difficult challenge. I know you're in the business of vehicles and auto suppliers. I want to get your take on the financial troubles of First Brands and Tricolor, which are of course tangentially linked to the auto industry. What does it say about the strength of the auto industry that these two companies have fallen to financial disfavor so quickly and, and taken so many people by surprise. I know there are some idiosyncratic reasons behind them, but it does speak volumes about a certain segment of the US consumer that is having trouble keeping up in this economy.
Adrian Balfour
Yeah, I think US consumer is sort of like. I think it was sort of pushed towards EVs and there's been a negative reaction as part of that. But as people buy EVs and become more stealth mode, I think people are going to start adopting them them faster and faster. I know the people that I am familiar with that have been very skeptical of EVs. Once they get an EV, they start to really like it. The difficulty still becomes down to fear of long trips, travel, charging networks, that sort of thing. But I think as the consumer becomes more confident and that is only going to happen by stealth, that's only going to happen incrementally, but as they do so, it will be it will be positive. The key thing is the getting Tesla to get out there because they are the market leader and they are setting the tone for the rest of the industry. If they continue to do that and then gm, Stellantis and Ford are able to follow suit, then I think the future is bright for the automotive world in the US Provided the tariffs keep the Chinese out for the next sort of foreseeable future.
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Date: October 6, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu & Paul Sweeney
Featured Guests: Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech Co-Host), Herman Chan (Banking Analyst), John Butler (Telecom Analyst), Adrian Balfour (EV Consultant)
This episode offers in-depth analysis of OpenAI’s mammoth chip deal with AMD, examining its market impact and the unique terms distinguishing it from previous tech deals. The hosts also explore the ongoing wave of regional bank consolidation, dissect a surprise CEO switch at Verizon, and present a reality check on the global shift to electric vehicles.
Breaking News & Market Impact (01:47 – 02:22)
Deal Details and Industry Context (02:22 – 04:11)
Funding and Valuation Unknowns (03:53 – 05:16)
Notable Quote:
Ed Ludlow: “For each gigawatt of capacity that comes online, AMD would then say, here is this tranche of stock... They need actual money to dig up the dirt, put the foundations in, get the data center up, and put the servers in right before any of this stock comes into play.” (04:50)
Notable Exchanges:
Herman Chan: “They don’t have the scale to operate a retail branch presence... But if you’re entering new markets, then opening new branches is the way to think.” (10:44/11:56)
Paul Sweeney: “Why do banks even have branches? I haven’t been into a branch in years.” (11:21)
Notable Quotes:
Adrian Balfour: “The automakers in the US have got the capital, they’ve got the experience and they’ve got the knowledge. They will pull it off. They just need time to get there.” (29:54)
Adrian Balfour: “I know the people that I am familiar with that have been very skeptical of EVs—once they get an EV, they start to really like it. The difficulty still becomes… down to fear of long trips, travel, charging networks…” (30:37)
| Segment | Time | |------------------------------------------------|---------------| | AMD/OpenAI “Tens of Billions” AI Chip Deal | 01:47 – 05:16 | | Regional bank M&A: Fifth Third/Comerica | 07:35 – 13:40 | | Telecom: Verizon CEO shakeup | 16:32 – 22:21 | | Electric vehicles: Market assessment | 25:12 – 31:39 |
The conversation is fast-paced, analytical, and pragmatic, with an undercurrent of skepticism about market euphoria (especially in AI) and cautious optimism about U.S. industry’s ability to adapt to global challenges.
This episode delivers incisive commentary on the outsized ambitions fueling tech and industry deals, the regulatory and structural dynamics driving finance and telecom, and the structural hurdles facing America’s electric vehicle future.