Oracle Falls Most in Six Months on Mounting Data Center Costs

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: Oracle Falls Most in Six Months on Mounting Data Center Costs

Date: June 11, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney & Scarlet Fu
Featured Guests: Anurag Rana (Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst), George Ferguson (Senior Aerospace, Defense & Airlines Analyst), Lilly Meyer (Bloomberg Retail Reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on significant financial and strategic challenges facing major public companies: Oracle’s sharp stock drop triggered by ballooning capital expenditures on data centers amid the AI boom; the historic SpaceX IPO and the complexities of valuing high-growth, investment-heavy tech ventures; and Nike’s ongoing struggles in key markets despite leadership changes. The hosts dissect market reactions, probe insiders for insights, and debate what’s next for each industry giant.

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Oracle’s Data Center Spend and Wall Street’s Reaction

Discussion starts at 01:57

Key Points

• Oracle shares tumbled nearly 11% after the company reported capital expenditures (capex) far above estimates. At issue is mounting investment into cloud and AI infrastructure – and growing skepticism over whether these investments will yield proportional returns or strain future finances.
• The market’s response is a marked shift. Whereas tech capex used to signal expected growth, there’s now anxiety over capital scarcity and dilution.

Analyst Insight

• Anurag Rana (Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst):
  • Noted that Oracle is planning substantial equity and debt offerings to fund capex, warning of likely equity dilution:
    • "I think that is something that everybody needs to grapple with because we understand there is infinite demand but we don't know if there's infinite demand for capital also at this point." (02:32)
  • Oracle expects to raise at least $20 billion in new equity, possibly more, to back capex that could reach or exceed $70 billion.
  • Emphasized a changing tech landscape: the era where software companies reliably generate abundant free cash flow is fading for those building AI infrastructure.
  • The tech sector, especially software, is bifurcating:
    • Firms like Oracle and CoreWeave are “dedicated to AI infrastructure,” experiencing exploding capital spending.
    • Pure software plays (Salesforce, Adobe) are seeing different risks: potentially being disrupted by AI without enjoying the upside in infrastructure.

Notable Quotes

• Anurag Rana:

  "To be very frank, the numbers we are talking about is no longer... 10, 15 billion in CapEx. We are talking about 70 billion and north of that. The capex numbers just keep on getting bigger and bigger." [04:07]

• Bloomberg Analyst:

  "Technology, software in particular... has historically been characterized by tremendous amounts of free cash flow. That's no longer the case here." [04:24]

Segment Timestamp Summary

• 01:57–05:21: Oracle’s capex spike, consequences of funding via equity and debt, changing tech sector cash flows

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SpaceX IPO: Valuation, Growth, and Capital Needs

Discussion starts at 07:48

Key Points

• SpaceX poised to make history with the largest-ever IPO, attracting $70+ billion in retail orders and allocating significant shares to retail and US domestic investors.
• The “SpaceX story” is a high-growth, high-capital-expenditure play in launch, connectivity (satellites/internet), and artificial intelligence (XAI).
• Evaluating SpaceX is challenging due to a lack of public data and its division into several very different businesses.
• All of SpaceX’s major business lines—launch, connectivity, and AI—are currently valued on revenue multiples, with little to no immediate profit in sight, reflecting extraordinary optimism about future growth.

Analyst Insights

• George Ferguson (Senior Aerospace/Defense & Airlines Analyst):
  • Each division valued by revenue rather than earnings—an unusual approach in the aerospace industry.
  • The connectivity segment is expected to reach profitability, while launch is steady, and the AI segment will generate heavy losses in the near term.
  • SpaceX’s massive capex demands mean the proceeds from this IPO likely won’t be the last equity raise. The firm will have to return to equity markets; debt is unlikely due to limited cash flow.
  • The overriding investment thesis is faith in Elon Musk’s vision, with corporate governance giving him total control via super-voting shares.

Notable Quotes

• George Ferguson:

  "For all the businesses at Bloomberg Intelligence, we undertook our analysis based on some of the parts, and every single one... was valued based on revenue... Multiples there at Rocket Lab are 70 times revenue. I mean, wow, that's, no pun intended, that's astronomical to what I'm used to." [09:56]

  "The AI business is sort of the big sucking sound in the middle of this... I think it's something like $8 billion [in losses]." [10:41]

  "You're going on a trip with Elon. You got to believe in his vision for the future if you're going to step into this and you're not looking at valuations intensely." [13:24]

Segment Timestamp Summary

• 07:48–13:34: SpaceX IPO details, business breakdown, valuation approaches, capital requirements, Musk’s influence

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Nike: Reinvention Under Pressure

Discussion starts at 16:09

Key Points

• Nike’s new CEO, Elliot Hill, received fanfare but has struggled to resurrect share price or business momentum, with stock down 45% since his tenure began.
• North American performance is stabilizing, but the greater China market—a vital growth engine—remains a formidable challenge.
• Hill’s strategy is mostly focused on returning Nike to its sporting roots after a period of prioritizing lifestyle products and direct-to-consumer shifts.
• Nike’s competitive threats are intensifying: high-profile athlete endorsements (long a Nike stronghold) are fragmenting, with rivals like Adidas and Chinese brands scoring high-visibility wins.
• Execution issues, such as flawed World Cup jersey design and distribution delays, have hurt the brand at crucial moments.

Analyst/Reporter Insights

• Lilly Meyer (Bloomberg Retail Reporter):
  • Described initial enthusiasm over new CEO Hill, followed by disappointment. Internally, his arrival was seen as a turning point, but results haven't materialized.
  • On athlete marketing:

    "I think with, with basketball and signature shoes, I'm not sure that market is exactly the same as it was years ago, but I do think getting athlete endorsement and having people on the court or on the field wearing your shoes remains a big deal." [18:15]

  • Hill’s approach is a “return to the past”—in contrast to predecessor John Donahoe’s focus on lifestyle and severing ties with retailers.

Notable Quotes

• Lilly Meyer:

  "While he's been in the role, the stock is down now 45% and he's really focused on getting the company back to sport and that's been a big struggle." [16:32]

  "Under John Donahoe... Nike went really into lifestyle shoes... cut ties with retailers like Macy's and Amazon. And... Elliot Hill so far has been trying to get Nike to what it was in the past." [19:39]

Segment Timestamp Summary

• 16:09–20:06: Nike’s leadership, market challenges, brand strategy, and competitive threats.

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Memorable Moments & Takeaways

• Oracle's Capital Crunch:
  • Skepticism is rising over whether sky-high capex in AI/cloud will ultimately boost returns or threaten financial health through dilution and debt.
• SpaceX’s Bold Bet:
  • Investors are buying into vision, not earnings, with revenue multiples driving valuation and Musk wielding near-total control.
• Nike’s Identity Crisis:
  • Leadership transitions have not stemmed deep structural challenges, as the company grapples with brand, market share, and operational missteps.

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Selected Quotes by Timestamp & Attribution

• [02:32] Anurag Rana: "We understand there is infinite demand, but we don't know if there's infinite demand for capital also at this point."
• [04:07] Anurag Rana: "Capex numbers just keep on getting bigger and bigger..."
• [09:56] George Ferguson: "Multiples there at rocket lab are 70 times revenue. I mean, wow, that's... astronomical to what I'm used to in the aerospace world."
• [13:24] George Ferguson: "You're going on a trip with Elon. You got to believe in his vision for the future if you're going to step into this and you're not looking at valuations intensely."
• [16:32] Lilly Meyer: "... the stock is down now 45% and he's really focused on getting the company back to sport and that's been a big struggle."
• [18:15] Lilly Meyer: "I do think getting athlete endorsement and having people on the court or on the field wearing your shoes remains a big deal."

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Recap by Topic & Key Timestamps

• Oracle and Tech CapEx: [01:57–05:21]
• SpaceX IPO: [07:48–13:34]
• Nike’s Struggles: [16:09–20:06]

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Overall Tone and Language:
Conversational, analytical, and candid—speakers weigh industry trends, express skepticism, ask challenging questions, and acknowledge uncertainty throughout.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode:
This episode delivers a candid look at how growth ambitions, technological shifts, and leadership choices can unnerve investors—even at the world’s leading companies. If you want to understand the mounting tension between investing for the future and financial sustainability in today's market, these discussions are essential listening.

Transcript

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

I thought the story for tech companies if you spend capex that's a good thing.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

Once upon a time it was yeah,

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

I don't know, I guess things have changed a little bit. Oracle Oracle Corp. Shares declined in pre market trading after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates. And it's boom, it's trading down, down 10.9% here today. I mean this is a big company, it's got a half a trillion dollar market cap. So I mean we're talking some real money here. Anurag Rana, he can explain this to us. He's a technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Anurag, what's going on with Oracle today? What did the market not like?

[Anurag Rana]

I think one of the things you have to think about it is there isn't unlimited capital in the world frankly. I know everybody is funding data centers but one of the things Oracle is also doing is when it's going to raise capital next year or even this year it's going some equity offering and it's going to do some debt offering. So it looks like next year there's going to be more equity dilution by them raising at least $20 billion. It's going to be most likely more than that. And I think that is something that everybody needs to grapple with because we understand there is infinite demand but we don't know if there's infinite demand for capital also at this point.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

That kind of goes to what I was thinking when we hired Rob Schiffman years ago, who's one of the top tech credit analysts. I'm like what are we hiring a tech credit analyst? They don't issue any debt. Boy was I wrong. Because now they're in the market going crazy. Yeah.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

And now in many ways even credit investors are overexposed to tech debt. So when it comes to Oracle needing more capital, how are these, I don't know, how are, how is the fundamental performance going to affect how it and when it seeks that capital, whether it's equity, whether it's debt.

[Anurag Rana]

So they have raised debt this year. They're saying they're not going to do any more debt raise in 2026. It's going to be most likely and next year affair. But you know, remember one thing in this case they have said that they will maintain good credit quality out there so they have to be very cautious about that. So article is a name it has backing off. You know, obviously not not just Larry Ellison but also a very strong fundamentally cash rich softw and I think that helps out. But to be very frank, the numbers we are talking about is no LONGER you know, 10, 15 billion in CapEx, we are talking about 70 billion and north of that. So this is a, you know, the capex numbers just keep on getting bigger

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

and bigger and you know your industry, technology, software in particular Anurag has historically been characterized by tremendous amounts of free cash flow. That's no longer the case here. How long is is that going to be the case for your world?

[Anurag Rana]

So the fun part is this been bifurcated into two different groups within software. One is that's dedicated to AI infrastructure. So that's Oracle cloud infrastructure, Core Weave and Navias. And those guys, the other companies which are Salesforce and Adobe and those, they're still pure software. Their capex is not going at that same rate but they have a different risk which is getting disrupted by AI on one hand. The other group is benefiting from AI buildup, one is under threat. So there are three or four dimensions that you have to play with right now. It's no longer an easy case that just by the software names and you know it'll just going to go up.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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[IBM AI Representative]

So there's a lot of noise about AI. But time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions, not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Host]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your Podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

SpaceX IPO pricing after the close tonight, ready to trade tomorrow. Lots of headlines crossing the tape. SpaceX IPO said to draw more than $70 billion in retail orders. And remember SpaceX said that it was going to allocate at least 20% of its IPO to retail investors. And also seeing a headline, SpaceX said to allocate less than 10% of IPO to international orders. That's a little bit unusual here. So we'll get this in price tonight and get a trading tomorrow. And that should be, will be the largest IPO of all time by far. George Ferguson, he's a senior aerospace, defense and airlines analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been writing research on SpaceX on the Bloomberg terminal. So if you want to get full research on this company, this transaction, go to bi, go on the terminal and that's where you'll find it. And George has been the analyst on that. George, what are you hearing here as we approach the end of this roadshow? What have you been hearing back from clients? How they're maybe just looking at this company, positioning this company? Because there's a lot going on here.

[George Ferguson]

There is a lot going on. And so I think what we're hearing from folks is that there's still, I think a bit of a dearth of information. You know, people are looking for, I think, decent models on the near term to get their arms around it. I think, you know, the challenge here is really this is a long term play on AI and XAI specifically. And I think, you know, when you're all done, I think you, I don't know if you close your eyes and sign on the dotted line or whatever. You go on a trip with Elon Musk for AI and, and connectivity into space.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

Yeah, I'm just looking at the FAA function and there's some analyst consensus numbers out there. So just calendar year 25, about 19 billion of revenue. Calendar year 26, the forecast is for close to 30 billion. Calendar 27, 48 billion. On calendar 28, 63 billion. So some serious revenue growth there. How are investors kind of valuing this thing? Is this a multiple of revenue? Because there's, you know, not a lot of earnings yet.

[George Ferguson]

So for, you know, for all the businesses at Bloomberg Intelligence, we undertook our, our analysis based on some of the parts and every single one of the businesses was valued based on revenue. Right. So I, I based launch on revenue and I used Rocket Lab as its nearest peer. Multiples there at rocket lab are 70 times revenue. I Mean, wow, that's, no pun intended. That's astronomical to what I'm used to in the, in the aerospace world. John Butler did it on, on the, on the connectivity piece. He's again using revenue. Although that's one business where they're going to make some profit. I think, you know, we're going to put out a model next week. I think John's looking at sort of 4 billion kind of profit out of that business. But then the AI business is sort of the big sucking sound in the middle of this and that's going to be, I think, a loss for the year. A big loss. I think it's something like 8 billion. Mandeep Singh leading the charge on that side of it. Again, valued it on revenue. Look, we don't think it's going to be profitable for at least the next couple of years. The question is how far out you, you want to take your model. I think again, the AI business will be heavy in the investment phase and so you're just not going to see profitability in that business. I think your connectivity business, you know, you, you will see profitability out of that business. But that's a little bit of a, you know, your, it's competition with terrestrial providers. The product is, is valuable but it's got more latency again than the terrestrial providers. So it's a growth business, but not a exponentially growing kind of business. And the launch business is a bit flattish. So I think it's really all about how you think about a long term investment in data centers and getting into space. The launch business is really about lifting it into space as cheaply as possible. And that's Starship.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

Now they're going to be raising $75 billion at, at the price in this IPO. I got a sense just thinking about these businesses, George, and looking at their capital needs that they're going to need more money. How do they expect to finance their growth going forward? Is this more equity? Is it debt? What, what do we know?

[George Ferguson]

Yeah, my guess is that you're going to have to see more equity because again, you're inside businesses that aren't really generating, well, not, not even, aren't really aren't generating sufficient cash for investment. So I feel like they're going to have to come back to the equity markets. You could try to pile a bunch of debt in it. There's not much in there right now, not sure how you'd support it. Right. So I think, I feel like you're going to be back for that. Right. So I think some of these AI businesses, this is a little bit out of my space. Right. Mandeep does it more. I think it's all about look, get what you need now to keep your investment going to strike to try to stay in the lead on AI and then figure out your financing as you go. Right. It's not not you can't look too far down the road. These are big numbers, I think.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

So before we let you go, George, I mean what's it really comes down to Elon and I. If you believe in both of them, you kind of close your eyes and jump in.

[George Ferguson]

I think that's exactly it. Right. The valuation again is is much larger than what I'm used to dealing with in aerospace defense. It's a very large valuation. Elon's going to have the majority of the B shares, which are a 10 vote compared to one vote for the A shares.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

Yep.

[George Ferguson]

I think you're going on a trip with Elon. You got to believe in his vision for the future if you're going to step into this and you're not looking at valuations intensely.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Lilly Meyer]

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[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

Nike tough times there. I mean, you think about Nike as the trailblazer for athleisure type in this country and of course the shoes and the Jordans and all that, but the stocks having a problem. The company's having a problem. So let's break it down with Lilly Meyer, Bloomberg Retail Reporter. Talk to us about Nike. I know a new CEO came in, but he's not been able to work magic yet. What's going on with Nike?

[Lilly Meyer]

Yeah, so when the new CEO Elliot Hill came in, everyone was ecstatic. You know, the stock shot up and then internally people were popping bottles of Prosecco. They made a mocked up meme of the Obama Hope poster with Hill's face on it. But while he's been in the role, the stock is down now 45% and he's really focused on getting the company back to sport and that's been a big struggle.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

What is his bigger challenge? Getting Nike back on track in North America or getting Nike back on track in China? Because both of these are huge. I mean, the US Is the home market, but China was where the growth was really happening.

[Lilly Meyer]

Yeah. So in North America things are getting better, but I would say greater China still remains one of the bigger challenges. And I think, you know, more broadly, showing up at big sports moments has been a challenge for Hill, which is what the story gets into.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

Explain what you mean by that.

[Lilly Meyer]

Yeah, so for example, the World cup and you know, is is about to kick off and first Nike's World cup jerseys had this design flaw. So if you look at them, the shoulder puckers up and that's for both players and fan jerseys and people, you know, immediately saw that. And then the jerseys, there's also been struggles to get them to retailers on time as well.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

You know how, how important is having the player endorsement as a strategy, as a marketing strategist, product launch strategy? I mean they, nobody did it better. They pioneered it, they perfected with Michael Jordan. But now we see other athletes, they're going different places. What do they say about that? How important is that?

[Lilly Meyer]

Yeah, I don't know if they've spoken to that explicitly recently, but I think, you know, it remains one of the ways that Nike can get in front of shoppers. I think with, with basketball and signature shoes. I'm not sure that market is exactly the same as it was years ago, but I do think getting athlete endorsement and having people on the court or on the field wearing your shoes remains a big deal. The London marathon recently, Adidas won with their shoe, their new running shoe. That's $500. Two of their athletes beat the sub two hour marathon record. And so that was a huge moment for them as a brand. Still kind of shows the way that shoes show up.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst]

I saw Steph Curry, he's now doing. He left Under Armours now for Chinese leaning.

[Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 2]

Yes, exactly. Of course, the brand that was formed by the Chinese gold Olympic medal gymnast who was a big, big star in the 1984 Olympics in L. A. Yeah, I remember watching that with my parents and it being a really big deal and I just gave away my age. Let's go back to Nike for a moment here because what is Elliot, Elliot Hill strategy? I mean is he thinking outside the box? Because he's someone who, if I remember correctly he was an intern at Nike and he's kind of a Nike lifer. He retired and he's come back. Is he capable of bringing in like a new idea, a new way of thinking?

[Lilly Meyer]

Yeah, that's a great question. So I think a lot of his strategy has been restoring Nike to what it was prior to its last CEO. So under John Donahoe who is the CEO before Elliot, Nike went really into lifestyle shoes. It went really into its direct to consumer channels. That's when it cut ties with retailers like Macy's and Amazon. And, and so I would say Elliot Hill so far has been trying to get Nike to what it was in the past.

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