Retail Stocks Jump After Supreme Court Strikes Down US Tariffs

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast: Retail Stocks Jump After Supreme Court Strikes Down US Tariffs

Date: February 20, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu
Notable Guests: Poonam Goyal (Retail Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence), Steve Mann (Auto & Industrials Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence), Dan Ives (Global Head of Tech Research, Wedbush Securities), Barry Ritholtz (Founder, Ritholtz Wealth Management)

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Episode Overview

This episode dissects the investment implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s tariffs enacted under emergency powers. Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu tap into the insights of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts and guest experts to break down the ruling’s impact for the retail, auto, and technology sectors, along with broader macroeconomic and market effects. The episode is structured as a series of focused interviews, each honing in on sector-specific ripple effects, with an eye toward actionable insights for investors.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Retail Sector Implications

Guest: Poonam Goyal (Bloomberg Intelligence Retail Analyst)
Timeframe: 02:38 – 09:42

• Immediate Benefit: Retailers are major beneficiaries; the tariffs previously raised costs and forced price increases. Their reversal is expected to lower costs and improve margins.
• Consumer Impact: Lower costs may also trickle down to consumers, offering some relief from inflationary pressures, though not necessarily a full reversal of prior price hikes.
• Notable Example: Nike explicitly linked certain price hikes to tariffs, raising prices on goods over $100 by mid-single digits.
• Cost Absorption: The tariff burden was distributed across the supply chain; retailers used both price increases and operational efficiencies (including AI investment) to offset costs.

Notable Quotes:

• “These tariffs caused unnecessary stress in the supply chains... So all that is now set to reverse.”
  — Poonam Goyal [03:10]
• “The consumer is expecting prices to go down...but typically they don't necessarily drop to the same extent that they went up.”
  — Poonam Goyal [06:20]
• “Retailers like Walmart... are probably going to push the pedal much harder on price when they get the relief from tariffs.”
  — Poonam Goyal [06:20]
• “The consumer is stretched...they're shopping at retailers that offer them convenience, speed, and something differentiated.”
  — Poonam Goyal [07:06]

Wayfair Example:
Wayfair, due to its marketplace model and broad supplier base, was able to mitigate much of the tariff impact through supplier competition, unlike vertically integrated companies.

Supply Chain Shifts:

• The move to diversify supply chains (away from China) has accelerated due to tariffs, but this change is expected to be more strategic now that the urgency has receded.

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2. Auto Industry Effects

Guest: Steve Mann (Global Autos & Industrials Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)
Timeframe: 12:03 – 16:31

• No Immediate Relief: The Supreme Court ruling does not impact the main tariffs affecting autos (Section 232 tariffs), so costs remain high for automakers.
• Manufacturing Realignment: Carmakers (e.g., GM, Honda, Hyundai) are shifting production to the US to shield themselves from tariffs and reduce freight costs.
• Additional Concerns: Costs for steel and aluminum imports—also unaffected by the ruling—continue to drive up vehicle prices.
• Looking Ahead: Companies are closely watching the upcoming US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) review, which could have more drastic implications for supply chains.

Notable Quotes:

• “There's no impact on the auto industry...the auto industry, the tariffs, is under Section 232, so it's not put in place by the emergency powers.”
  — Steve Mann [12:55]
• “You’re seeing automakers from South Korea and Japan asking suppliers to shift some production into the US.”
  — Steve Mann [15:17]
• “The USMCA...up for review this year—that’s going to have a much bigger impact on the auto industry.”
  — Steve Mann [15:54]

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3. Technology Sector Reaction

Guest: Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities, Global Head of Tech Research)
Timeframe: 18:52 – 25:21

• Bullish Signal: The ruling is particularly positive for tech stocks, which have global supply chains heavily exposed to any form of protectionism or tariffs.
• Supply Chain Relief: With tariff threats reduced, tech giants (e.g., Apple, big chipmakers) feel a “huge sense of relief” and can plan without fear of sudden, costly policy shifts.
• Continued Diversification: Some manufacturing has already shifted to India and the US, but Asia remains central to big tech supply chains; the ruling eases competitive pressures and potential costs.
• AI Frenzy: Dan Ives notes the ongoing debate over the disruptive impact of AI on software and cybersecurity companies, labeling current market concerns as a “ghost trade”—detached from fundamentals.
• Credit Markets: Despite volatility in private credit and leveraged loans, Ives reassures that major tech companies generally have strong cash positions.

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s a huge blow to the tariff policy and it’s very bullish for tech coming out of the gates.”
  — Dan Ives [19:31]
• “Big tech companies... behind closed doors... There is a huge sense of relief right now.”
  — Dan Ives [20:16]
• “For big tech supply chain, chip players, memory players, it’s a clear positive. There’s no way to really go against that thesis.”
  — Dan Ives [21:12]
• “Right now you’re fighting a ghost and the bears are loving it. But again, that will be short-lived in my opinion.”
  — Dan Ives [22:13]

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4. Legal and Market Perspective

Guest: Barry Ritholtz (Ritholtz Wealth Management)
Timeframe: 27:55 – 36:05

• Tariff Legality: Neil Katyal, lawyer who argued the case, reminds listeners the administration could have sought Congressional approval instead of relying on emergency powers.
• Winners & Losers: Retailers and manufacturers sourcing heavily from abroad stand to benefit most. Costs were effectively VAT-like, borne by American consumers.
• Refund Complexity: Large firms with legal resources can pursue refunds for collected tariffs; it’s more complicated for small businesses.
• Macro Implications:
  • Strong potential for the US dollar to rally after a significant decline in 2025.
  • Relief from tariffs could hold down inflation and bolster consumer spending.
  • Prospects for recession are diminished—retail, manufacturing, and consumer discretionary sectors stand to benefit the most.

Notable Quotes:

• “I think the Supreme Court just lowered the possibility of a recession by a not insubstantial percentage...these are all second, third, fourth order effects.”
  — Barry Ritholtz [35:36]
• “Depending on which study you consider, tariffs have cost the average American household anywhere between $900 and $3,000.”
  — Barry Ritholtz [34:25]
• “If you’re a small company...that’s a whole process [to get tariff refunds].”
  — Barry Ritholtz [31:40]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Speaker | Quote | Timestamp | |-------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Poonam Goyal | “These tariffs caused unnecessary stress in the supply chains... set to reverse.” | 03:10 | | Poonam Goyal | “The consumer is expecting prices to go down...they don't necessarily drop as much.” | 06:20 | | Steve Mann | “There's no impact on the auto industry...tariffs are under Section 232...” | 12:55 | | Dan Ives | “Big tech companies... there is a huge sense of relief right now.” | 20:16 | | Barry Ritholtz | “I think the Supreme Court just lowered the possibility of a recession...” | 35:36 |

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• [02:38]–[09:42]: Retail sector breakdown with Poonam Goyal
• [12:03]–[16:31]: Auto industry analysis with Steve Mann
• [18:52]–[25:21]: Technology sector and AI market moves with Dan Ives
• [27:55]–[36:05]: Legal context and macro/microeconomic fallout with Barry Ritholtz and Neil Katyal

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Episode Tone

The discussion is analytical and candid, often conversational, blending expert analysis with practical investment perspective. Guests frankly acknowledge uncertainties and limitations, but the mood is consistently forward-looking and opportunity-focused.

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Summary

The podcast offers a deep-dive into the probable sector-specific and macroeconomic effects of the Supreme Court’s striking down of Trump-era tariffs. Retailers and tech firms are immediate beneficiaries, likely to see improved margins and less supply chain uncertainty. The auto industry remains unaffected due to different legal provisions. The downstream effects include reduced inflation pressures, a possible rally in the US dollar, and less recession risk—substantial news for investors across the board.

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Useful for investors gauging:

• How retail price cuts and margin expansion could show up in earnings
• Ongoing supply chain shifts—slower pace but not a reversal
• Tech sector’s relief and continued global sourcing
• Why autos remain encumbered
• The long-term policy context and refund mechanics for businesses

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Listen for:
Accessible, data-driven analysis on a complex ruling, with both immediate and nuanced investment takeaways.

Transcript

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[Paul]

One of the areas that was certainly impacted by tariffs had been retail. And they import a lot of the stuff that we all wear from Asia, from China, from areas of the world that are subject to tariffs. So we can get a sense of how this might change the game here, this Supreme Court decision. Today we welcome Boonem Goyal. She covers all the retail companies for Bloomberg Intelligence. Puna, what's your, I guess your initial thought here from the retailer's perspective to the extent that a lot of these tariffs are going to be rolled back?

[Poonam Goyal]

Yeah, I think look, it's good news for retail because at the end of the day their costs will go down. These tariffs caused unnecessary stress in the supply chains, caused retailers to raise prices, it lowered their margins. So all that is now set to reverse. We still don't know what the magnitude of this will eventually shape out to be. You know, there is our analysts here on the government side think that while these have been overturned, you don't know what else could be added. So I wouldn't say we go to zero. That's probably not happening. But I do think that as these tariffs get overturned and as costs drop for these retailers, we should see a pickup in margins in 2026 and also a pickup in demand because you know, the consumers for a long time or at least over the last year have been very concerned with inflationary pressures and just prices going up. So all that will help hopefully ease demand too.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

You mentioned prices going up. Do we know of any companies, any brands that raised prices because of tariffs where they made that link very explicit?

[Poonam Goyal]

Yes. Nike was one of the retailers that had explicitly said that it's raising prices not on everything but on goods that were over $100, notably over 150, they had taken a mid single digit price increase. So prices did go up across retail from tariffs. They didn't go up 20, 30% but they did go up in the single digits. Mid to high single dig.

[Paul]

You know, the New York Fed is out with a report recently saying that about 90% of the tariff costs were born somewhere in the US chain. Whether it was the importers, the companies themselves, consumers, maybe only 10% by exporters.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Yeah, Kevin Hassett disputes that of course.

[Paul]

Yeah, of course, of course that he does. But I'll go with the New York Fed. They're pretty solid in their numbers. So from your perspective and the perspective of the retailers, Poonam, how much did you think like The Nikes of the world kind of took in their margin versus passing along to consumers.

[Poonam Goyal]

Yeah, I would say that I think there was a shared cost across the tariffs between the suppliers and the manufacturers. So it wasn't 90 10. I find that hard to believe because if that was the case, a mid single digit price increase wouldn't be enough to offset the cost pressures. It'd have to be higher. But that said, I do think that, you know, they did see their costs rise and they did try to offset it not just through price increases but also through efficiencies within their organization. Whether it was across payroll, whether it's through technology. You know, we've heard a lot about these AI investments and they've really helped improve efficiency across the organization. But we haven't seen that in the numbers. And my answer to that is it's not in the numbers because it's really just been helping offset these incremental pressures from tariffs.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

We've seen companies like PepsiCo move to cut prices on some of their products, their snack products. And I'm not comparing snacks with clothing or sneakers. But if a company like Nike raised prices because of the tariffs, is there any world in which it might reduce prices or lower prices because tariffs were removed?

[Poonam Goyal]

So I think the consumer is expecting prices to go down when the tariffs are removed. The big question is if prices went up, let's say 10%, are they going to come down 10%? That typically doesn't happen. They don't necessarily drop to the same extent they went up. But yes. Would you have some relief from the cost increases? Sure. I think retailers like Walmart that really push the pedal on price much harder and care about offering that incremental value to their customers. That's what they stand for. Those are the retailers that are probably going to push the pedal much harder on price when they get the relief from tariffs.

[Paul]

So what's just broadly defined right now? Step back a little bit. What's your view of the consumer here based upon kind of the results you've seen from some of the retail companies you follow?

[Poonam Goyal]

I think the consumer is stretched. I think they're under pressure, but they're making choices, they're being selective. They're shopping at retailers that offer them convenience, that offer them speed and that offer them something differentiated. And I think that's been the story for a little while now. I think that continues. So retailers like Amazon have been doing well because they offer both value, convenience, free shipping and they've done well. Wal Mart, you know, we heard from, they also did well on their value proposition. So I think it's those retailers that really stand out in the crowd or those that have a fashion element, whether it's urban Outfitters, you know, with just the right assortments that's attracting these younger shoppers. They are the ones who are doing well.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

What does this mean for furniture companies like Wayfair? And I recognize that Wayfair doesn't make a lot of its own furniture necessarily. It's outsourced, a lot of that. But have they been explicit in how much tariffs have. Have hurt them? Because most of their manufacturing is not done in the United States. I'm guessing it's done overseas.

[Poonam Goyal]

It is done overseas, but I think with Wayfair, it's a little tricky because, as you said, they are a marketplace, right? So when you think about Wayfair, they have thousands of suppliers to choose from, our manufacturers or sellers. And if. If the seller wants to make a sale, you know, they can go from one seller who may say, the sofa is $1,000 and I have a 50% margin on it. But then there's seller number two who says, well, you know what? I'll take a 15% margin on it because I want sale. So the diversity and just the choice that they have on who they bring on board to offer the compelling prices has helped them offset a lot of these tariff loads that others that are vertically integrated have to deal with directly.

[Paul]

Puna. We heard a lot of companies in retailers, but just across the economy talk about shifting their supply chains to maybe parts of the world that are less encumbered by tariffs. Have you seen that in the retail space? Like, is Nike making shoes in Vietnam and not China or anything like that?

[Poonam Goyal]

Absolutely. The supply chain shift has been going on since the first round of tariffs, actually, and it's only been pronounced since last year. We expect supply chains to continue to be diversified. The only difference with this ruling being overturned is that the urgency has somewhat been moderated, so you don't have to be as reactive as you would have been last year. You can take your time and be more strategic about where you want to be diversified. But I don't think that just because the tariffs are overturned now, everything will go back to China. I think the diversification step up is here to stay.

[Paul]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube as we look through the different sectors that are impacted by this Supreme Court ruling basically determining that President Trump's tariffs under the IPA provision are illegal. Let's take a look at what this means for the auto industry. Steve Mann is our global autos and industrials research analyst. And Steve, I'm looking at the top live blog that Bloomberg makes available to our clients. And one thing that many people may not realize is that the ruling does not pertain to the main US Tariffs affecting the auto industry. Walk us through what, what is affected when it comes to auto tariffs by this ruling?

[Steve Mann]

Yes, the bottom line is there's no impact on the auto industry. You know, the, the, the auto industry, the tariffs on the auto industry is under the Section 232 of the Trade Expansion act of 1962. So it's not put on in place by the emergency powers. So the baseline of the 25% tariff tariff on auto imports is still there. Now Trump did renegotiate with countries like South Korea and Japan to bring it down to 15. But for the most part, you know, consumer will still feel the impact of these tariffs of, you know, close to 1,000 to $3,000 per vehicle on average. The other thing that I want to highlight is it's the steel and aluminum Import tariff of 50% that's also not impacted by the Supreme Court ruling today. And that also has a huge impact on the cost for the automakers.

[Paul]

So Steve, what have you seen so far for the automakers and how they're dealing with these higher tariff levels? Are they moving production? Are they changing maybe some parts of the supply chain? What have they been trying to do to mitigate the tariff costs?

[Steve Mann]

That's a good question, Paul. I think the reason why Trump went with the 232 section 232 approaches is that the auto industry, given its huge manufacturing base, is critical to the economy. It's critical to national security. He does want to bring a lot of that manufacturing back into the US and that's what we've seen with the US Automaker. For example, GM actually have shifted some of the Silverado production from Oshawa, Ontario back to, back to the US and you've seen Honda, Hyundai from South Korea making huge investments in the US to set up manufacturing base. So I think, I think that's still the course for the administration and I think we'll still continue to hear more probably in the, you know, in the next few years more of that reshoring auto manufacturing back into the U.S.

[Poonam Goyal]

so

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

how do you see this moving forward? How does a Ford, how does a GM plan for the next year, for the next four years, the next 10

[Steve Mann]

years yeah, I think they're going to have to revisit and they're still doing, and they have done that already. Revisit the supply chain. Right. I think the low hanging fruit was moving some of the auto assembly back to the U.S. but that's, that's, that's not enough. You know, if you're, if you're, if the supply chain is not close to where the cars are made, freight costs will go up. There will continue to be potential tariffs in some of the components. So you're starting to see, you know, companies especially from South Korea, automakers from South Korea and Japan actually asking the supplier to shift some of that production into the US Just to cut some of the freight and potential tariff costs on the autos, auto parts. So we're going to see a whole lot of changes in the supply chain. And you know, I think one of the things that we also are keeping an eye on is the US mca, the United US Mexico, Canada Free Trade Agreement, that's up for review this year. That's going to have a huge, a much bigger impact on the auto industry. So we'll see how that plays out.

[Paul]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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[Paul]

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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Aut with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Do you want to bring in Dan Ives? Dan of course is the noted analyst, the global head of technology research at Wedbush securities to get his take on what we're seeing in tech and whether Dan, this SCOTUS ruling is kind of just risk on for the market overall and that means a big lift for the biggest part of the stock market tech or whether this is specifically good news for tech companies.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, this specific good news for tech companies because of the supply chain. The biggest worry is that tariffs what that could do in terms of the data center, build out AI, build out chips, everything that we're seeing with China. Look, there's going to be other ways that they're going to try to go around this 232 section 301 the reality is it's a huge blow of the tariff policy and it's very bullish or tech coming out of the gates. That's going to be so Dan, it's

[Paul]

been, you know, a little more than roughly a year that all companies have been dealing with this tariff uncertainty. How the technology companies who do have a global supply chain rely a lot on parts of Asia. How have they kind of adjusted here?

[Dan Ives]

Look, I mean Apple has moved a lot to India. Others have had to make significant investments in the US and also look to diversify their supply chain. But you know, as we talk about the show, like the vast majority of the supply chain will continue to be cemented in Asia and where you had companies starting to look at diversification, increased cost, which is going to potentially impact the supply chain. That's off the table now. And that's something, look, big tech companies, they'll say publicly behind closed doors. There is a huge sense of relief right now.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

That's interesting, you know, given that so many of the big tech CEOs have really aligned themselves with the President, what does this mean for the big chip makers that are outside the United States, the tsmc, the Samsung Electronics of the world?

[Dan Ives]

I mean it's extreme positive for them because when you think about each of them, the question there was how is that going to impact them from a policy perspective, from a tariff in terms of coming into the US and then you start to think about manufacturing, you'll continue to have some manufacturing move to the US but this is actually going to put the brakes on some of the policies that some of these tech players had. Look, there's going to be section 232, section 301, there will be other areas that go about it, but for big tax supply chain chip players, memory players, it's a clear positive. There's no way to really go against that thesis.

[Paul]

Dan, your world has been rocked over the last several weeks by AI and the impact some people are speculating it may have on certain parts of the marketplace, including software companies, particularly software as a service companies here. What's the current thinking as you talk to investors these days?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I mean Paul, I'm calling it, it's the AI goose trade because you're trying to fight a goose. Because the, the view that this is going to massively disrupt software, it's going to massively disrupt cyber security. And, and I've talked about it's the opposite. I think it's the most disconnected trade that I've seen in my career on Wall street in terms of what's happened to software stocks now. But again like, like we talk about fighting a goose, there's going to be like boxes that are checked, whether it's open air in the 100 billion, there's a better earnings next week. Whether it's Apple and I where there's circular financing, software companies show monetization. This is going to happen. But right now you're fighting a ghost and the bears are loving it. But again that will be short lived in my opinion.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

That might be the case in the equity market. But we're seeing private credit, leveraged loans really come under pressure because of all those loans to a lot of software companies, many of which don't have investment grade ratings. Is credit driving the concerns in the equity market? What's leading? What, Dan?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I mean look, if you get Blue Hour, I mean obviously some concerns there, but then on the other hand, look at a Powell and others. So I think if you look relative to some of the exposure and what the credit market's telling you, it's still very healthy from a credit perspective, but no different than we saw with banks a few years ago, Silicon Valley bank and others. There's going to be hypersensitivity to anything that happens here. But the reality is is that these companies have more cash in a lot of countries. When you actually go through it, the point is like they're going to continue to do. But look, Scarlet, it's like if there's five people trading CDS instrument to Oracle in their basement, that's going to be extrapolate, right? And we saw that like a few weeks ago. It's just a reality like we're going through a ghost trade. It's an AI ghost trade and you got to navigate through it. But net net today it's positive for tech and that's one step forward.

[Paul]

Hey, Dan, you spent a lot of time in Silicon Valley and it's just a great place to get a sense of kind of where the, you know, the tech investment mindset is here. Has tariffs dialed back. Kind of the risk profile of some of the good folks on Sand Hill Road as they think about what technologies to fund. Is it tempered a little bit and could today's ruling be a major change?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I think tempered and maybe like a little question mark in the back of the mind in terms of what was going to be the next policy, what was going to be the next threat, specifically when it came to supply chain, how companies are positioned. You can't just snap the fingers and change your supply chain. We're talking about things that could take 24, 36 months. This ruling, it does clear the path a little more. And I think that's something that's a positive as you're in a unprecedented build out of a fourth industrial revolution AI and for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it becomes attacking.

[Paul]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Matt Rogers]

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[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

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[Paul]

Well in the summer of 2025. Barry Ritholtz spoke with Neil Katiel, the lawyer who argued the case against Trump's tariffs in front of the U.S. supreme Court. Here's what he had to say about their legality.

[Dan Ives]

The president has an easy fix.

[Paul]

If he wants to, he could go

[Dan Ives]

to Congress and seek approval for the tariffs that he wants. That's what he did the first time around.

[Steve Mann]

And as we talked about last week,

[Dan Ives]

you know, that's something that failed in Congress and so maybe that's why he doesn't want to do it. Obviously, these tariffs are highly unpopular, but nonetheless, you know, the Congress is controlled by his party and, you know, that's

[Paul]

the place to start.

[Dan Ives]

Don't run to the federal courts to do what you can't do in Congress.

[Paul]

That was Neil Katyal, the lawyer who argued the case against Trump's tariffs in front of the U.S. supreme Court. He was speaking with Barry Ritholtz. Barry Ritholtz joins us here. He is the founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management and host of Masters in Business here. Barry, what do you take away from the Supreme Court's decision here today?

[Barry Ritholtz]

Yeah, long overdue, long awaited. I think the market always has a hard time digesting data inputs that are kind of outside of their sweet spot. So when we get an FDA approval or the announcement of a merger or corporate earnings or nonfarm payroll, hey, the markets are really good at integrating that into prices. I suspect it's going to take a little while for this to get digested. My personal expectation is there are a lot of winners and losers from this. I think that the winners are going to be obviously the retailers because prices have gone up. We've seen a ton of different research that says somewhere between 90 and 95% of the cost of tariffs falls on consumers, essentially making them a VAT tax. So not only retailers, but manufacturers like Caterpillar and Deere what aren't affected by the Supreme Court ruling. And we heard one of the prior guests say this is all of the tariffs on US Auto manufacturers on steel, on aluminum. That's a whole separate law. That's not the IPA law, that's the 232 law. And, and that's still up in the air. There's no resolution from, from this case for, for GM, Ford, US Steel, etc. But when we look at companies like Toyota or Costco or Walmart, that Toyota filed a refund because all of the parts that either Toyota proper ships to their US Manufacturers that have a big price increase, this is going to work to Those companies benefits.

[Paul]

So I guess the question is for the markets, Barry, is, you know, how much of a profit impact could the relaxation of some tariffs have on corporate America? Because I'm not sure we've got a great handle on how much it impacted them on the downside in the last several quarters.

[Barry Ritholtz]

Well, it just goes to show you the, you know, the counterfactual is always what would have been otherwise. And look, the president inherited a strong economy, a robust economy with markets at or near all time highs and profits at or near all time highs. And so even the pick a number of 175,200 billion in tariffs that have been collected already over the past 10 months. You know, arguably a lot of that comes right out of the bottom line for, for corporate America. So when we see these tariffs get refunded and I'm fighting my way through the decision, reading the decision to figure out, all right, if you're a big company, you certainly have corporate counsel and, and resources to go through the process to apply for refunds. If you're a smaller company, I'm trying to figure out if, if how you go about this. Do you have to join some sort of of consortium or maybe even a class action suit? Because it's not, you know, it's not just like doing an online tax form and getting refunds. It's a whole process.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

It's definitely heavy lift for companies that, you know, barely have an HR department, barely have an in house lawyer.

[Paul]

Well, I'm coming up with an app that anybody could use that would be, wouldn't that be good some get some

[Barry Ritholtz]

smart person solve this.

[Paul]

Yeah, AI can solve it. Exactly.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Let's wait for AI to solve just that.

[Poonam Goyal]

That.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

Barrett, you are fantastic at kind of thinking ahead, thinking around corners, looking around corners. What do you want to know? What are the questions you're asking right now to kind of help us get through this period of uncertainty, a new period of uncertainty once we kind of get through and start to understand how things move forward, whether the President can move right away on the tariffs under the different sections or whether he's going to backpedal and kind of rethink everything.

[Barry Ritholtz]

So yeah, I've been trying to think about second and third order magnitude results from this. It's not just the pebble you toss in the pond, it's the waves that bounce off of the other waves and how this works. You know, I'm not a political expert, so I'm always reluctant to venture into that space. But staying with market and economic factors. So a couple of things are very positive. The dollar in 2025 had its worst year since 2017, not coincidentally, two years that were both. First year of President Trump's tariffs, first year of a new tariff program, first year of a Trump presidency in each of these cases. And the dollar fell 9.9% in 2017, 9.3% last year. This arguably could be very strong for the dollar, which would begin to call into question the rally in precious metals. Gold, especially silver is kind of in trading crazy. You almost have to look at it as a smaller, wackier little brother of gold. But I wonder if this caps the rally in gold. That's number one. Number two, I have to think that everybody that's engaged in any sort of tariff negotiation is going to rethink it and decide, hey, do we want to stick with these tariffs? Do we want to see if we can press our hand? That's going to be kind of interesting. It also, and perhaps most enthusiastically look, depending on which study you consider, tariffs have cost the average American household yield anywhere between, you know, $900 and $3,000. And I suspect as you go up the, the economic strata, it's probably a whole lot more than that. That's going to essentially get cut in half or more depending on, on, you know, what you're buying. If you're buying Birkin bags and Ferraris, you're going to see and Rolex is, you're going to see your tariffs drop pretty, pretty dramatically. And so this is positive for inflation. This is positive for, you know, the Fed has been warning that hey, rate cuts are not a sure thing in the first half of the year. This is, this is very positive for lowering CPI and lowering the possibility of rate hikes. All of this could lead to a re acceleration of the economy and certainly in specific sectors. And I'm thinking in particular manufacturing and retailing and consumer discretionary. Those sectors can all do really well. We may, you know, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a recession in the second half of the year. I think the Supreme Court just lowered the possibility of a recession by a not insubstantial percentage. And again, these are all second, third, fourth order effects.

[Podcast Host (Bloomberg Intelligence)]

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[Matt Rogers]

This is Matt Rogers from Las Colguristas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. Hey, so what if you could boost the WI fi to one of your devices when you need it most? Because Xfinity WI fi can. And what if your wifi could fix itself before there's even really a problem? Xfinity is so reliable. It does that too. What if your wifi had parental instincts? Xfinity WI fi is part nanny, part ninja, protecting your kids while they' and finally, what if your WI fi was like the smartest WI fi? Yeah, it's WI fi that is so smart it makes everything work better together. Bottom line, Xfinity is smart and reliable. You deserve the peace of mind of having WI fi that's got your back.

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