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Today.
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Bloomberg Reporter
I got this thing trading it's now trading it priced at 135, opened at 150 here at 156. Anthony Hughes, Bloomberg US Equity Capital Markets Reporter what do you think here?
Anthony Hughes
Anthony Well, I think 11% gain on the first trade is probably a number that for most IPOs would be considered what you would hope to achieve. But in the sense that this ipo there's a lot of hype and enthusiasm and a lot of people involved in this deal. I think maybe people were hoping for a bigger number.
Bloomberg Host
I really like the fact that you started there because the headlines were crossing as of the first 30 minutes of trade and the initial headline was that it was indicated to open at $175 apiece. And it's been steadily going down. We've gotten headlines about, you know, oh, now it's 174, now it's 172, now it's 170, all the way down to 150. Is that a bad sign?
Anthony Hughes
Yeah. Well, just to understand the process a bit better, I mean, Morgan Stanley is a stabilization agent for the ipo and they also have the role of opening the ipo. But basically that process involves bringing together all these buyers and sellers for this opening print. And you want to make sure that the opening print is sort of ideally as fair a price as you can get. And generally speaking, from what I'm told, that banks like to have about 10% of the deal size traded in that opening print. So I think you can see the number There was around 60 million shares and the IPO was 500. You know, about 10% of the stock basically went through in the opening print. That's about standard. Right. But that allows the banks to be sort of confident, I guess, that taking the buyers and the sellers together, the price that you're opening the stock at is the price that the market wants to pay. And then looking at the success of this first day trading, one measure of it will be like where the stock closed and you want the stock to close near to or ideally above where it opens. You don't want it to like, you want to open the stock really high and then it ended a lower because that meant that would mean that a lot of people lost money. So, you know, that's the art of opening an ipo. But this is just all one day's trading and it's many days ahead.
Bloomberg Reporter
Yeah, exactly. Right. We've got close to 100 million shares trading hands here. Again, about 159, 160 a share open at 150 after pricing at 1.35 here. How long typically will we see? I guess higher than usual volume when a company goes public, is it, does that all get kind of exercised the first day? Does it last a few days?
Anthony Hughes
I think, I think from my experience, the first day will be the heaviest day for a while. I mean, the first few days will also be relatively heavy. I mean, space X. You know, the interesting thing with IPOs is that, you know, the art of, of executing IPOs is to try and place the stock with as many long term investors as you can and investors that won't sell. But there's always a portion of the stock you want to get to people who are traders because obviously we want some stock to be in the market for people to buy and sell and not to sort of overly exaggerate the price if there's a real supply and demand imbalance. But you know, I think from the institutional book they allocated like 70, I think it was 70% of the deal to what they call long only investors or you know, people who are, people are not traders. And, but you are going to have an element of the, you know, as you know from your experience, you're going to have an element of the book that's got to be, go to people who are a bit more short term. But, but yeah, the first, first, first day will probably be the biggest day of trading. I mean it may be different from SpaceX, but yeah, I mean when you go and see SpaceX do another, maybe they'll do another stock sale in the future or some sort of corporate event, it might, there might be a day when it's higher, but this could be, you know, it could be the highest day of trading for the stock.
Bloomberg Reporter
It's interesting, I'm just looking at the rich go function on the Bloomberg terminal had Elon's stake in SpaceX valued at $135 a share, which placed him again farther away, the number one richest person on the planet with a net worth of $970 billion. Now with the rise in the price, he's well over a trillionaire. So there you go. That's also kind of a it interesting event there in the world's history, I guess.
Anthony Hughes
Yeah. On paper, of course.
Bloomberg Reporter
On paper, of course. Exactly right. This has to be, I'm going to call, let's just. If it we kind of trade like this today. You know, you call this a successful IPO and a successful historic IPO for many reasons, not this least of which is the dollars involved. That bodes well, I would think, for the anthropics of the world, the open AIs of the world, which have also filed registration statements to go public. This has got to be a good sign.
Anthony Hughes
Well, I think we'll see how the stock trades today. I mean, to be honest, coming out 11% out of the gate, you probably might be a little worried that it could drift back and, and maybe end. Not as well. But you know, I think the banks have put a lot of work into this. So you know, maybe that maybe they know that they can get it to finish around where it's, where it's opened here or maybe there's some more enthusiasm from the rest of the day. But, but yeah, I think it shows you that 75 billion is, I mean we, we, we've reported this as a huge number. It's a record deal. But you know, I think even the senior person there at Goldman Sachs today I saw them note and something I've been thinking a lot about is that, you know, the numbers we talk about these days are so much larger than even, even a few years ago. We talk about trillions just offhand and, and you know, the amount of volume you see in the IPO market, we're talking, you know, I think, I think the, I think we're thinking globally maybe 300 billion. You know, something like that. If all these deals happen and, and, and that's a lot of money to raise and their market cap's obviously much bigger in the trillions, but the amount of money that they're sucking out of the market is a relatively small amount of well below 1%. I think the number was something like 20 basis points or something. It's not that much money these days.
Bloomberg Reporter
What do we know about the lockup period here? Typically an IPO lockup is 180 days, six months before insiders can sell their shares. What do we know about this transaction?
Anthony Hughes
Yes, that's a bit of a long answer to that question. It is a non traditional lockup. Normally you have a six month lockup and everyone comes out and can trade at six months and the stock falls as a, as a result. But here, you know, you've got to take into account this is a 24 year old, 24 year old company. So you know, it's not like it's, it's, it's not like it had already had a very fairly developed shareholder base. So you know, there's a logical argument that you can maybe not have the standard lockup, but they still have, you know, put some, some standards around it by making sure that the company's gonna have to report its first set of earnings before people get it start to get out. But even then there'll be a small proportion of the people who'll be able to sell and then a little bit later a bit more. And the whole lockup sort of basically comes off over a one year period. And Elon Musk himself is locked up for a year or so and he probably wouldn't be selling I don't think in any substantial size in any case. But, but the point is, I guess that he's got a lot of pre IPO investors alongside him there and there are some, there are definitely some of those investors who aren't investing in the IPO and do want to get out because they only invest in private companies. There are other investors who are continuing. So there's all different types of investors involved in an IPO like this and some of them are going to want to sell and some of them are going to hang on and it's just going to be a bit different. But the lockup structure is quite complex. It stretches over a year. There are multiple, multiple, I think it's 8 to 10, might even be more periods when a little bit of stock comes out like 7% here, 8% here. And it's all outlined in the prospectus, but it's quite lengthy and well considered.
Bloomberg Reporter
So how about the retail component? Do we know generally how much went to the retail side?
Anthony Hughes
Yeah, so I think if we look at the IPO as like 75 plus the green shoe, which will be exercised because the stocks traded up will likely be exercised. I think my understanding was that 20% of the, of the deal went to retail. So that would be a little bit less than $20 billion. The demand was more than 100 billion. And you have to, you know, when you talk about retail, there's different types of retail. There's the rich, rich high net worth customers of the banks and then there's the Robinhood. There's, you know, there's the whole spectrum. There's the Robinhood customers. I mean if you talk about the Robinhood customers from all the, what people have said the same morning, it sounds like all hundreds of thousands of Robinhood customers got at least a share. And that was the case probably with some of the other digital platforms as well. But a lot of people are disappointed because they only got one share. But maybe now they look at and see 10% gain, maybe they're not so disappointed. I don't know.
Bloomberg Reporter
Looking at just Tesla stocks down 2% here today, down 13% for the year, up 22% for a trailing 12 month basis here. And of course one of the storylines out there, Anthony, is that Elon says for no other reason, just for keeping everything neat and tidy, just kind of have SpaceX acquire or roll up Tesla into Space X. I know that was discussed out there in Marketplace. Do we expect to hear anything from the company on that?
Anthony Hughes
Well, it's unclear. I think that's something that people are expecting to happen. It might have some industrial logic, I think particularly because there's different things that pretty big ambitions that Tesla have is around robotics, which might make more sense in a, in a, in a business like SpaceX. With a business like SpaceX where there's so many of these big, big, big projects and ambitions that they're trying to pursue. And you know, maybe robotics and space together makes a lot of sense and you know, but, but I think it might be a while before we hear about that. I mean, I think people do expect that to happen, but it's, you know, it has to make sense for, you know, based on, you know, how this, you know, how these stocks are trading, whatever. But I think the main argument perhaps for that happening from, I guess a more, I could say from a more cynical perspective is that it would allow Elon Musk to, you know, to potentially take control of, of, of, of this bigger entity because Tesla doesn't have the dual class structure and SpaceX does. But, but, you know, I think a deal like that would take a while. I think the other extraordinary thing about SpaceX though is that we've really seen that Elon Musk gets stuff done quickly and quicker than everyone else. I mean, even the, the press releases, the filings, the roadshow, the way the S1 was drafted and filed, everything happened a lot quicker than the average company, that's for sure.
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Bloomberg Reporter
Let's go to George Ferguson here. He's been tasked to lead the research efforts here involving lots of the analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. Because this is a technology play, it's an AI play, it's a rocket ship play. You gotta have some experts. And fortunately Bloomberg does for all of those businesses. George, what do you think the. The buyer of a SpaceX, what do you think the buyer of a SpaceX share? What is he or she thinking here when they place that order?
George Ferguson
Yeah, I mean, I honestly think most of them are believers in Elon Musk, believers in his vision of the future and his ability to get things done. Because I think you got to be a big believer to buy in it at these valuations. So that's, that's where I think, that's why I think you saw so much of it get of the ipo, get shunted into the retail side of the world and because I think that's where you'll see a lot of support and buy into that vision.
Bloomberg Host
It feels like the SpaceX IPO is a real beast. I mean, you look at the superlative surrounding it. It's the biggest IPO ever. It'll be the first company to move people to Mars that it's going to mint the world's first trillionaire. I almost said billionaire and I had to. Correct.
Bloomberg Reporter
Now we have to.
Bloomberg Host
And this is kind of the point, right, George? I mean, this is the Elon Musk formula. Create an entirely new category and then, you know, claim leadership and set the standard and, you know, make everyone follow in your footsteps. If that's the case, how does someone analyze a company like this? Because whatever you do, he's going to come back with, well, it's never been done before, so you can't, you know, compare it to anything.
George Ferguson
Yeah, I Mean, that's why it's extremely hard. But I think when, you know, when you look at it, I think we do understand pretty well the launch business as it stands today. We understand the connectivity business, the satellite business pretty well. And I think the big variable here again is that AI business and it's a variable out there for a number of other companies. But look, I think launch, we saw some 76% of the launches were primarily for Starlink. So when we think about the demand for launch in the future, look, I think there'll be more constellations that go up, but I don't think there's going to be more than five or six LEO constellations in the next couple decades. And they're the ones that use a lot of satellites, you know, that sort of 10,000 plus kind of constellations. And I think of those five or six, I think you're going to see two us are kind of, you know, Starlink and they're probably Amazon Leo. I think Europe might want one of their own. I'm sure the Chinese want a couple of their own. Maybe India gets in this game. I don't think anybody else's constellation is going to get launched on SpaceX launches, right? So I think it's going to be even. I think Amazon LEO is going to be launched largely on blue origin rockets as they get that going. So I think we're kind of looking at space kind of a flattish, maybe a slow growth kind of business as they do government work and things like that. And the connectivity business, you know, that's all about, that's, you know, that's data, broadband data, that's direct to cell communications. We kind of understand that too. We have terrestrial provider. If you're in a big population center, they're going to do it better than Space X is going to do given latency of going to a satellite, problems of being in buildings. But they're very important areas of the world that need that connectivity to a satellite to stay on the, you know, on the web and connected. And that will get better over time. But I think that's, you know, maybe it's, we're seeing sort of 20s ish percent growth in the last couple years, but some of the metrics are coming down and the amount each subscriber spends, it's decently profitable, it's not wildly profitable. So to me everything shifts to AI, right. It's a big bet on data centers putting them into the sky, putting them into, into orbit where you probably be able to do it cheaper. Cool it Cheaper, powered, easier and then you know, we'll stream data up to satellites and GROK will help us figure out what to do in, in the future. And that' the, to me the big, big vision.
Bloomberg Reporter
Yeah, I'm looking at just kind of where the revenue comes from, George. Just on the trailing 12 month basis, you know, round numbers. 11 billion from the connectivity business, 4 billion from the space business. And then at the bottom is AI at 3 billion of revenue. But when you think about a company that's going to be valued at at least 95 times revenue, it seems like the buyer today is saying I'm putting my money on this AI thing because I think that's going to be something just astronomical. I guess it's the AI play that kind of gets you to where you need to go for if you're a long term investor.
George Ferguson
Yeah, I think if you look, you know, if you look at some of the recent deals cut with Anthropic. Right. So what that's a billion and a quarter a month. You know, I guess as long as they keep signing that agreement you're going to see that AI revenue jump up pretty dramatically here over the, over the next year and years. Right. So I think when we look at sort of what we think is going to be at the end of 2026, we think it's going to be a 14 billion connectivity business and a 14 billion rev AI business. And I think one, one of the interesting things we saw was right is space X built Colossus 1 and Colossus to the two big data centers down Memphis Tennessee area. They did it in existing buildings so they could get it up and running very quickly. He, you know, sort of in typical Elon Musk way he's looking to drive down the cost quickly. It's just, you know, that's smart for any business person. Put a lot of capacity online. Now he has the opportunity to sell some of that to Anthropic. I think Google's in there too. So you're going to see that AI, you know, revenue line drive up but they spend a lot of money to keep that going. Right. I think the, they're going to consume even more than the revenue they bring in. And there's like four or five $6 billion deficits in that operating mar margin sorry operating profit for that business. So you've got to find a way to power all that investment you need. This IPO is about we're going to invest a lot of that money into data centers and we'll invest some of it into Starship because we think long term is going to be easier to make those data centers in space that'd be cheaper and so that's where a lot of this money goes. That's the bet.
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Bloomberg Reporter
us live on YouTube, let's continue to talk about space. Why not? Ross Hamilton, chief operating officer for Space Network, joins us here in our studio. Ross, one of the things that I think got investors attention on this roadshow as I try to think about the opportunities for SpaceX and for the industry is the company and elon identifying a $29 trillion total addressable market. Do we have any idea where that number really comes from?
Ross Hamilton
Well, thanks for having me on again. It's a huge number. It really is. I don't know if AM could really add up the numbers. I'm not quite sure exactly where that comes from, but I think the kind of the thesis is what SpaceX is eventually going to become. It really wants to be the infrastructure that's running all industry, all markets. So if you think about, you know, the Internet in the 90s, you know, they're really trying to create the backbone for AI infrastructure, compute infrastructure for, for the century. So what they're looking to do is put a lot of infrastructure in place, lots of chips, lots of robotics, not just for their own use for Space X and not just for Tesla, but they're looking to do that for all industries. So if you follow, if you have a long term view on AI chips and infrastructure and compute, then the argument is that all industries would benefit from that.
Bloomberg Host
Of course, of course Space X has become a government contractor. It's done a lot of the work that NASA used To do so, one of the addressable markets is the US government and that's a big customer. How can we quantify just how big of an opportunity that would be going forward?
Ross Hamilton
So I think it is pretty big. I mean if you think about the relationship with NASA as Well, you know, NASA's focus is shifting to more exploration, but from a government standpoint is definitely be more on the kind of national defense, Golden Globe, Golden Dome type strategy. As long as, you know, you know, the US particularly wants to be, you know, the dominant force and has recognized through space force that much of the military will be guided through satellites and that technology, I think it's, you know, basically are prime for the US government.
Bloomberg Reporter
So how do you guys think about, I mean, how does this relate to your company and what you guys are doing?
Ross Hamilton
Yeah, so we are really focused on the private sector. So we are helping space tech companies who are not yet public commercialize. So raise capital, find customers, focus on revenue. And the thing that's really important there is with what the Space X is doing is it's going to generate a lot of liquidity in the marketplace. So as people spin out from, you know, SpaceX going to their own thing is drawing attention from private equity and venture capital into the market, that's going to draw a lot of capital in. So from our standpoint it's going to increase this focus on the opportunity. But our argument is though that it has to be on the basis that there's real customers for those space technologies. And our thesis is that aside from governments, you know, and NASA who are doing space exploration, that's actually a non space industries. So financial markets and you know, global logistics, agriculture, pharmaceutical, that's the market there. And that remains an opportunity for a lot of these innovative companies. I think Space X is more of an infrastructure play for those other markets.
Bloomberg Host
It's an infrastructure play for now. It could also become an electric vehicle company soon as well or that'll be kind of brought into its, its orbit. Because there's a lot of talk about how Elon Musk might combine Space X with Tesla. That just becomes another kind of company then and not really comparable to what you do.
Ross Hamilton
Yes, I think there's a couple of things there from SpaceX and Tesla relationship. One of the ideas originally that he wanted to get into EVs is ultimately he wants to be able to have vehicles up in Mars. For that you need electric vehicles and power. So that's part of his broad interplanetary species strategy there. But when it comes back to what's back on Earth. It really is about building infrastructure and providing things that are used or created for space but used back down on Earth. And I think there's, there's enough of an alternate market to Space X to allow those things to happen. So an example would be the International Space Station is coming down in a couple of years and there's going to be new commercial space stations going up which is going to allow drug research and other types of research and in orbit manufacturing to happen. That is going to be core in other parts of the infrastructure that the SpaceX Mark Space X will not serve.
Bloomberg Reporter
How's the capital raising out there other than Space X for companies that want to do space based businesses?
Ross Hamilton
It's actually been very healthy over the last number of years. I mean you could argue it's been quite healthy over the last 15 years, but the last couple of years there's definitely been an inflow of private capital. You know, it's not for things that are like rockets and hardware and satellites. It's traditionally not been a venture model.
Bloomberg Reporter
Right.
Ross Hamilton
But I think they're starting to realize that this is a play towards more venture like businesses that can run on that infrastructure.
Bloomberg Host
You talked about how this will create a liquidity event, this ipo. It's going to make a lot of people rich. We talk a lot about the SpaceX current employees and former employees. If they do become very wealthy and decide to step away and stop working, they may go off and start their own company as well. This creates this large ecosystem. Do you have any sense of timing around how this plays out?
Ross Hamilton
That's a hard one because I'm sure there's going to be a lot of lockups in there and a lot of people looking to fulfill the Space X mission. But I think certainly over the next couple of years you're going to see a lot of that activity happening.
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Date: June 12, 2026
Hosts: Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu
Guests & Contributors: Anthony Hughes (Bloomberg US Equity Capital Markets Reporter), George Ferguson (Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst), Ross Hamilton (Space Network COO)
This episode delves into SpaceX's historic $75 billion IPO—the largest in history—analyzing first-day trading dynamics, what the offering means for markets and investors, and the broader implications for the space and AI industries. The podcast features frontline market insights, interviews with Bloomberg analysts and an industry COO, and discussion about SpaceX's vision, its valuation, and ripple effects across Wall Street and the satellite and AI ecosystem.
[07:55–09:43]
Diverges from standard 6-month lockup; instead, lockup expires gradually over a year, with 8–10+ tranches releasing bits of stock at a time. Elon Musk himself is locked up for a year ([08:04]).
Quote:
Around 20% of the IPO (approx. $15B) allocated to retail, catering to everyone from high-net-worth individuals to retail traders (Robinhood users); demand from retail topped $100B ([09:49]).
Launch Business:
Connectivity/Satellite:
Artificial Intelligence (AI):
Seen as the big growth lever. Colossus data centers and cloud AI revenue (deals with Anthropic, maybe Google).
“Everything shifts to AI, right. It’s a big bet on data centers, putting them into the sky... powered easier, cooled cheaper, and then, you know, we'll stream data up to satellites and… GROK [AI] will help us figure out what to do in the future.” — George Ferguson ([16:19])
By end of 2026, connectivity and AI businesses each projected at ~$14B revenue.
AI revenue contracts (Anthropic pays $1.25B/month)—but margin negative, huge capital needs ([19:30]).
“They’re going to consume even more than the revenue they bring in... there’s like $4–6 billion deficits in that operating margin.” — George Ferguson ([19:30])
IPO proceeds will fund data center and Starship growth, a bet that in-orbit data infrastructure will win long-term ([19:30]).
This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of tech IPOs, the fusion of AI and space industries, and the market’s willingness to bet on extraordinary ambition.