Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Tesla Surrenders EV Crown to BYD After 8.6% Sales Decline
Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney (episode coverage by Matt Miller, Hannah Elliott)
Main Theme:
This episode focuses on Tesla's recent decline in electric vehicle (EV) sales, its implications in the competitive EV market—particularly vis-à-vis Chinese giant BYD overtaking Tesla, and wider analyses on innovation, technology, AI competition from China, trends in non-alcoholic beverages, and evolving practices in business travel rewards.

1. Tesla’s EV Decline and Shifting Priorities [01:12 – 05:24]

Key Discussion Points:

• Tesla Falls Short on Delivery Expectations:

  • Tesla recently released its company-compiled consensus for delivery figures, which were even lower than the external Bloomberg estimate. Despite this, Tesla missed even its conservative self-estimate.
  • The stock price had already declined in anticipation of weaker numbers.
  • Craig Trudell: “It turns out that Tesla came up short even of their own lower expectations... We're not seeing a huge move in the shares, at least for the moment, but we did see the company's stock price kind of stumble in the last few sessions of the year...” (01:42)

• Tesla's Business Diversification and Focus:

  • Discussion about CEO Elon Musk's attention being diverted away from Tesla’s auto business to projects like humanoid robots (Optimus) and robo-taxis.
  • Trudell notes Musk “does also talk quite a bit about Robo Taxis. And yet in terms of execution there... that would put them years behind Waymo on that front.” (02:41)

• Valuation Drivers Beyond Cars:

  • Tesla’s market cap ($1.5 trillion) isn't due solely to car sales, but investor faith in Musk's ambitions, such as robotics and autonomous vehicles.
  • Matt Miller observes, “the company is valued at one and a half trillion dollars, not because it sells 1.8 million cars a year, but because investors have faith in Elon Musk’s ... creativity and success in future endeavors like robots.” (03:29)

• Robo Taxi Race – Tesla vs Waymo:

  • Waymo (Alphabet’s autonomous driving company) is currently years ahead in deploying and commercializing fully driverless vehicles.
  • “...in terms of, you know, here and now, who actually has cars on the road that don't have... drivers behind the wheel? Waymo is ahead of Tesla and it's not at all close because we've not seen Tesla actually commercialize that.” – Craig Trudell (05:11)

Notable Quotes:

• “...it was interesting earlier this week to see Tesla come out with its own company compiled consensus for these delivery figures...” – Craig Trudell [01:42]
• “I think it would be no contest... he does also talk quite a bit about Robo Taxis... but ... that would put them years behind Waymo on that front.” – Craig Trudell [02:41]
• “Everybody is very excited about Robo Taxis and for good reason. …The question I have is… how quickly can we scale that capability in a way that's actually generating money?” – Craig Trudell [04:30]

2. China’s DeepSeek AI and the Global AI Arms Race [07:06 – 11:39]

Key Discussion Points:

• DeepSeek's Impactful AI Breakthroughs:

  • DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, is expected to launch a new large-scale AI model that could challenge Western market leaders.
  • Innovations focus on improved scalability and drastically reduced energy/training demands, potentially circumventing U.S. chip export restrictions.
  • Ed Ludlow: “They have to get clever from a computer science perspective on the architectures, how a model is weave together... they've just published a white paper that would suggest they found another way of doing that that ... is... much more efficient.” (07:53)

• Global Competitive Reality:

  • Previous DeepSeek releases upended financial markets due to their efficiency with fewer resources.
  • “...when Deep Seq started publishing its evidence... everyone was like, well huh, hold on a minute, it didn’t cost you guys very much.” – Ed Ludlow [09:06]

• Sourcing of AI Chips – Controversy and Innovation:

  • Rumors/allusions to Chinese firms potentially acquiring Nvidia GPUs through gray channels, which Nvidia categorically denies.
  • Focus shifts to China’s scientific ingenuity in circumventing hardware bans.
  • “It's what China's technology companies are able to do without access to those chips that is the main focus.” – Ed Ludlow [10:30]

Notable Quotes:

• “The present day, the way that we compare the performance different models is peer review and performance tables and the kind of free, lower cost Chinese models are up there.” – Ed Ludlow [09:30]
• “Any demand that's out there accounts for all the [Nvidia] chips they're ever going to make.” – Ed Ludlow [10:30]

3. Non-Alcoholic Beer Boom: Athletic Brewing Company [12:46 – 21:15]

Key Discussion Points:

• Explosive Market Growth:

  • Athletic Brewing has grown the US non-alcoholic beer market from $100 million to over $1 billion in ten years.
  • “We've taken it as a category from about $100 million to passing a billion dollars in the US market this year.” – Bill Shufelt [13:31]

• Shifting Consumer Preferences:

  • Over 40% of consumers participate in "Dry January."
  • There's a nationwide pivot toward health and wellness, even among younger generations.

• Innovation & Demographics:

  • Extensive product innovation: “in a typical year, we launch almost 50 different styles of beers...” – Bill Shufelt [16:12]
  • Target audience has shifted: 45% under age 45, strong Gen Z uptake, and a trend of “zebra striping” (“alternating alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks”). [17:16]

• Business Strategy & Capitalization:

  • Heavy investment in manufacturing (“$130 million into our own manufacturing, our brewing quality teams...” [17:41])
  • Strong private capital backing with eyes on potential public offering.

Notable Quotes:

• “People order alcoholic drinks and non alcoholic [drinks] – zebra striping.” – Bill Shufelt [17:16]
• “After that celebrity hype, they've really loved what they found in Athletic.” – Bill Shufelt [17:41]

4. Travel Rewards, Gen Z, and Credit Card Loyalty [22:50 – 29:22]

Key Discussion Points:

• Travel Industry Post-pandemic Recovery:

  • Leisure and business travel are at or above pre-pandemic levels.

• Bank Credit Card Loyalty in Travel Bookings:

  • Up to 25% of US online travel is booked through credit card loyalty programs.
  • “That's just like much, much higher than it was maybe 10 years ago.” – Dakota Smith [24:42]
  • Notable partnerships and incentives: e.g., Nubank’s 0% APR travel financing in Brazil.

• Generational Change:

  • Gen Z leads in using loyalty programs and managing points (“Gen Z is the generation that uses loyalty programs ... at the highest clip of any generation by a lot.” [26:38])
  • Managing points across airlines, hotels, and banks can be complex; many use spreadsheets and multiple cards.

• Industry Adoption:

  • Airlines, especially in the US, derive a major share of profits from loyalty partnerships.
  • International markets are quickly following suit, with tech companies like Hopper facilitating this shift.

Notable Quotes:

• “Gen Z is the generation that uses loyalty programs and credit card programs to book travel at the highest clip of any generation by a lot.” – Dakota Smith [26:38]
• “...a huge percentage of [airline] income and especially their profit is related to their loyalty program and selling the points to their co brand credit card issuing partners.” – Dakota Smith [28:08]

Highlighted Quotes by Segment and Timestamp

• “It turns out that Tesla came up short even of their own lower expectations...” – Craig Trudell [01:42]
• “I think it would be no contest... he does also talk quite a bit about Robo Taxis...” – Craig Trudell [02:41]
• “It's what China's technology companies are able to do without access to those chips that is the main focus.” – Ed Ludlow [10:30]
• “We've taken it as a category from about $100 million to passing a billion dollars in the US market this year.” – Bill Shufelt [13:31]
• “Gen Z is the generation that uses loyalty programs... at the highest clip of any generation by a lot.” – Dakota Smith [26:38]

Summary Table of Key Segments

| Segment | Topic | Guests/Speakers | Key Timestamp(s) | |------------------|--------------------------------------------|---------------------|------------------| | Tesla | EV decline, valuation, future focus | Craig Trudell | 01:12 – 05:24 | | AI | DeepSeek, AI chip strategies | Ed Ludlow | 07:06 – 11:39 | | Non-Alc Beer | Market growth, trends, business strategy | Bill Shufelt | 12:46 – 21:15 | | Travel/Loyalty | Recovery, bank rewards, Gen Z habits | Dakota Smith | 22:50 – 29:22 |

Tone & Style

• Engaged, analytic, occasionally playful (e.g., teasing about “zebra striping” drinks)
• Grounded in market and tech analysis, with credible experts
• Uses accessible language and frequent attribution

Conclusion

This episode offers a comprehensive, forward-looking snapshot of the evolving automotive, technology, beverage, and travel sectors, highlighting how consumer preferences, competitive disruption (from China to craft beer), and generational shifts (notably Gen Z's approach to loyalty and products) are driving dramatic changes across industries. Not only does it focus on headline business news (like Tesla’s dethroning by BYD), but it also digs into the technological and cultural undercurrents reshaping the global economy.