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Paul Sweeney
Alix Steel here alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio and everybody. We made it to Friday but not to disappoint. The headlines keep coming that UMICH data coming out. As Paul was just talking about long term inflation expectations hitting a 32 year high, you're looking at one year inflation expectations jumping to 4.9%. Joining us now is Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director. Joining us, Joanne Oliver. What is behind the rise in inflation expectations?
Joanne Hsu
It's very clear consumers are really worried about the impact of these policy changes, particularly these tariffs that are changing on a daily basis. Kind of policy going in circles. Consumers are really worried this is going to pass through to the prices that they see and they're concerned this is going to be something that's going to affect not just the short term but the long run as well.
Alix Steel
So give us a sense here. I mean the University of Michigan sentiment. The headline number came in at 57.9. The consensus was 63. The prior period was 64.7. Give us a sense of how rare is a is it is a rate of change like we're seeing here this month. How rare or how common is that?
Joanne Hsu
So what we saw this month was an 11% drop. That in itself may not be notable, but what is critical is that it follows two other months, two previous months of pretty strong declines. We're now down 22% from the very beginning of the year. That is a pretty long sustained drop and it reverses six months of increases that we were seeing at the end of 2024. So consumers are really concerned that we are headed for a downturn. We saw deteriorating views of about unemployment, about stock markets, about personal finances across the board. Consumers are seeing a lot of down downside risks in the years ahead.
Paul Sweeney
Joanne, before we let you go, how split is it among party lines?
Joanne Hsu
What we saw was a decline in sentiment across Republicans, Independents and Democrats. This is not something that's being driven only by people who are not fans of Trump. Across all three political groups, we saw declines in sentiment.
Paul Sweeney
All right, Joanne, thanks a lot. We really appreciate it. Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Love getting you on on this is so, so, so important.
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Alix Steel
Alix Steel Paul Sweeney we are live with you here Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York City. We're also Streaming live on YouTube set over to YouTube.com and search Bloomberg Podcast Live and that's where you'll find us. The PGA Tour is at Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for the Players Championship this week. A lot of folks call to fifth major. I believe our next guest may also be in Ponte Vedra and I'm going to put the two together and assume there's a Morgan Stanley event down there. Kathy Entwistle, managing director, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, joins us here. Kathy, what are the conversations you're having with your clients over the last couple of months? I mean, two months ago, stock market was all time high. Everybody's feeling good. A little bit different here today.
Kathy Entwistle
Absolutely. The conversations have definitely been more challenging. There's a lot of anxiety and fear about the markets. But part of our job is to walk them through it and talk them through it and also talk about positioning and maybe taking advantage of some of the market volatility to reposition what we have in order to get on board for the next phase of the market.
Paul Sweeney
What is the next phase of the market?
Kathy Entwistle
Yeah, well, the next phase of the market is basically trying to think about who the new winners or where the new opportunities will be going forward. Also, what type of, you know, whether it's on the equity side, you know, corporations, companies that we're investing in different cap sizes, you know, large companies, small companies, mid companies, if their value or growth. We like the mid growth area of the market. We like the large value area of the market. We like what we call qgar, which is quality growth at a reasonable price. And we also like, we're going to start bringing in some of the duration a little bit more based on where we are with the rates.
Alix Steel
Kathy, we just got that University of Michigan data came out today, and obviously the sentiment, much lower than forecast inflation expectations, much higher than consensus forecasts. Do you get that sense when you talk to your Morgan Stanley private wealth clients?
Kathy Entwistle
Yeah, I think this is not going to be an easy year ahead. I think there'll be a lot of bumps and volatility and a lot of sideways trading. So. So it's more about understanding where we are managing expectations and looking just for the opportunities to make those shifts. Clients are definitely more worried. You know, this year, especially in the last couple of weeks, I've gotten a lot of phone calls. We've had a lot of conversations and we are just, for my clients personally, we're walking them through the process and the markets and reminding them of all the times we've had these kind of downturns and that they're very normal. And it's very normal to have a 10%, you know, drop in the market every 12 months.
Paul Sweeney
But the whippy headlines are not normal. So how do you then filter the noise from the reality?
Kathy Entwistle
Yeah, again, it's, it's looking at the metrics and the numbers. You know, there's two different sides to the equation. There's the pure quantitative side, the numbers and statistics and our history and what we can think, you know, sort of look forward to with knowing those numbers. And then there's the qualitative side, the emotions and the challenges. So part of our job is to take the qualitative side out of it, take the emotions out of this and look at it purely from where are the opportunities and how can we keep our clients invested in the markets? Because if you take your money out, you have the potential to pay cap gain taxes. You also have the potential to not know when the right time is to get back in. So if you're positioned well and you're invested in the right companies that will turn around eventually. And it's a patience game.
Alix Steel
How does fixed income fit into the discussions these days you're having Kathy, with your clients because they could sit at a two year treasury and get about 4%. If they want to take credit risk they can get a little bit more than that. And maybe in a volatile market that's not the worst thing. How do you talk about fixed income?
Kathy Entwistle
Yeah, absolutely. What we do is when we're talking about fixed income, I've got an allocation for most of my clients in municipal bonds in their taxable accounts and corporate bonds in their retirement accounts. And they know that it's an, it's an asset class that is typically non correlated to the equity market and that when we have volatility in the market this will be what keeps them up. You know, like their portfolio up and buffered and a little bit more on the conservative or safer side. And they're getting at the same time tax free income. And if you're getting yields that are tax free, the taxable equivalent yields are higher than the 4% that you're talking about with the Treasuries.
Paul Sweeney
What about in the corporate credit market market? So there's a lot been made about how equities are reflecting that recession sentiment. But the, the high yield market has not been. But we just started to see kind of spreads widening a little bit. But investment grade still seems a little protected. What do you think?
Kathy Entwistle
Yeah, I, I've been keeping my clients in investment grade. I think it's just smarter at this point. You're not really getting paid the difference that you would need to get paid to go for the high yields. And I come, I come from a time when we had a lot of corporate defaults back in the, in the 80s. So I am very reminis and I want to stay away from any risk in my clients portfolios. They've won the game. There's no need to take more risk in something that's supposed to be a little bit more safe or conservative.
Alix Steel
That said though, I hear a lot of registered investment advisors, Kathy, that talk about alternative investments as something their clients really want allocation to. And it's not just 5 or 10%, it can be 20, 30%. What kind of discussions you have with your clients about alternative investments?
Kathy Entwistle
Yeah, we've been using alternative investment investments in our clients portfolios as long as it's appropriate for them and they qualify for it. But it's very interesting because that again is non correlated. We do expect, for example, on the credit side, you're talking about fixed income on the credit side. In alternatives you can get higher yields and some of those can have some tax advantages to them if they are involved in sort of, you know, REIT or something along those lines. So alternatives are a great way to get the diversification. Typically, I am, I am looking to get my clients invested 20% on average in alts, depending on the size of their personal portfolios. And also we're doing it over time. We're not doing it all usually in like one fell swoop. Although now evergreens, I'm sure you guys are familiar with the evergreens where they have more liquidity, they're more aligned with an investor's time frame and goals. And so you can, you know, get more invested without capital calls that way, which is really a nice way to get clients invested in this part of the market.
Paul Sweeney
All right, Kathy, thanks a lot. We really appreciate it. Cathy Whistle, managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Enjoy that weather in Florida.
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Paul Sweeney
Okay, let's go back up to the colder weather in Canada. Justin Trudeau officially out. Mark Carney officially in. This is a different change now for the Canadian government, creates an opening for that government to reset its relationship with the US And President Donald Trump. But will it? Brian Platt, Bloomberg Canadian government reporter, joins us now. Brian, first, before we get to the inner workings, do we even know what a Carney Trump relationship is before Carney took the helm?
Brian Platt
No, we have not had a chance to put this question to Carney yet. I mean, Mark Carney really has not done very much media. We're expecting a news conference this afternoon and I suspect he will be asked that very question. So, you know, whether they have any pre existing relationship at all is one of the biggest questions that I have right now. But I do think in general Carney is approaching this as a chance to ideally reset a relationship that had become very tense and very even hostile between President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau.
Alix Steel
Is there a sense that, I mean, this thing seems to go one of two ways. Either you kind of accept to a very large extent the terms that President Trump is offering as it relates to tariffs, or you fight it, as it appears that Canada had been doing perhaps more aggressively than anybody else out there. Do we have any sense of how Mr. Carney wants to move that forward?
Brian Platt
Well, he has said already he's not taking off Canada's retaliatory tariffs until the US Fully commits to a free and fair trade relationship. So that probably means until the US lifts all the tariffs that it has put on Canada because dealing aluminum just recently and there were other tariffs in place from earlier March. So at the moment, Carney has promised to keep Canada's retaliation in place. I will also say he's constrained by public opinion here. Canadian public opinion is demanding retaliation and in fact probably wants even harsher retaliation. So I will be very surprised if Carney softens too much on this. But you know, if you can get into a negotiation here, maybe there's room to, to adjust how Canada is responding.
Paul Sweeney
Yeah, when I was down in Houston, Texas at Sarah Week, which is a global energy conference, when I was speaking off the record, people were like, Canadians, just mad. Like full on mad.
Brian Platt
Yes.
Paul Sweeney
When we take a look at the, the ability of the government in and of itself to respond, there are many territories that have free, they all have free reign. The provinces can do what they want. We saw that with Ontario. So what's the coordination between, say, Carney and the individual regions?
Brian Platt
To some extent, provinces have free rein. I mean, this is a, you know, Canada's a federation just like the US Is, where states have certain powers in general on international trade. It's the federal government. And so most of the tools that you retaliate on are federal tools. But provinces have certain things that they can control. In Ontario's case, it was the electricity system. So the province of Ontario had briefly put in an export tax essentially on its electricity trade with the U.S. but most, when you talk about counter tariffs and things like that, that's all in the federal government jurisdiction. The provinces are just looking at some of the other things they can do. One of the biggest things we've seen is provinces control their own liquor distribution systems. And so quite a few provinces have taken all American made liquor off the shelves until the US lifts its tariffs. So you do see some smaller sort of more targeted responses like that from the provincial level.
Alix Steel
Brian, can you educate us as to when an election may happen in Canada?
Brian Platt
The most likely scenario is very soon. I think the end of next week is what I'm looking at. And that's sort of the conventional wisdom right now that. So Mark Carney will be sworn in today. I believe we've reported he's about to go on a short Europe trip. To France and England, which, you know, will kind of be a Monday, Tuesday thing, I think. And then I suspect by the end of the week, maybe even on the weekend, he calls a snap election. And so in that case, you're looking at an election date of late April or early May.
Alix Steel
And what are the polls showing now?
Brian Platt
Well, they're changing. It's fascinating. The Conservatives in Canada under Pierre Polly have looked like they were cruising to a majority government. They were up by 25 points for most of last year. It's, we're now entering a dead heat. I mean, and it's essentially because of Donald Trump's threats. Trudeau's resignation has led to that as well, and Carney's ascent to the leadership.
Alix Steel
All right.
Brian Platt
But it's a spat. It's Trump's tariffs.
Alix Steel
Yep, very good. Brian. Thank you so much for reporting. We really appreciate it. Brian Platt, government reporter, Bloomberg News. He's in Ottawa. Talk about boots on the ground, folks. Get that fantastic reporting. We'll stay on top of that election. That may come as soon as a week or two.
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Paul Sweeney
One of the headlines is that gold broke $3,000 an ounce. I remember covering gold when it wasn't even $1,000 an ounce. So this is like for us gold nerds and gold bugs, this is like a moment of balloons and stuff. And the question becomes like, how long can this last? Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist, who was also covering gold before it was even $1,000 an ounce. Hey Mike, if I had told you 20 years ago, gold be at 3,000, what kind of economy would that have represented?
Mike McGlone
Yeah, Be there significant inflation or severe deflation? I think the key reason gold's rallying now is because it's anticipating the deflation. Significant potential deflation if US Risk assets. Most, most noted stock market continues to can either say go down or mean revert because it went up so much the last few years. I think that's what's happening now. The gold markets anticipating stock market going down. Okay, that was best been the best place to be along with cryptos for decades now, along with high bond yields and now gold starting to understand that, oh, that rally might be over. And you're seeing that ETF lows, ETF ETFs had outflows of four years in a row and they're really kicking in. This year they're up about 4%, which would be the most since 2020.
Alix Steel
And Alex, when I first met Mike years ago, when we were first talking about him coming to Bloomberg, I said, hey, Mike, what's your commodities call? Buy gold, sell everything else.
Paul Sweeney
I mean, he's pretty much always been right on that one. The call every hair at that point.
Alix Steel
What's that? No?
Paul Sweeney
Okay, so that colony eroded here. Yeah.
Alix Steel
So, hey Mike, how do you get a sense or how have gold traders. I'm not sure if people trade gold or they invest in gold, but how do they feel about valuation? Like at some point people say, oh, this, this stock has just gotten too far ahead of itself. Do we ever say that about a commodity like gold?
Mike McGlone
Well, I. Paul, I love how you go there because we know you're an equity person and valuations in your brain in commodities. The main lesson you learn in commodities is they go down because they went up. That's why crude oils at $65 a barrel, it went up too much. The big difference is gold. The big difference is gold. The key thing is oftentimes you try to find a cost of production as a valuation. We usually go to what's happening. What's different with gold, it's the only commodity that really goes up over time continuously. Partly because the supply can only increase on average 2% forever and it's harder and harder to produce and it's monetary value. So that's what's the significance of gold. Gold is up about 65% since February of 2020. That's when the announcement between of the unlimited French rate friendship between President Xi and President Putin and it's continuing now the key thing is looking forward is we're seeing deflationary forces in China potentially kicking over in this country. And I'm really worried now. I don't want gold to stay above 3,000, but I think it will. Particularly because of the reasons I'm worried about. Is the US stock market having a bit of a normal correction now 10% nothing compared to what usually happens when you have a major shift, which we're having a paradigm shift in what's happening in the US maybe how about 20 or 30% in stock market that means gold continues higher. So I'm worried at these levels but I think it's going to continue rally for reasons that are going to hurt most investors, unfortunately.
Paul Sweeney
Is it also to do with this idea that maybe the government could mark to market their gold reserves and then confiscate gold in order to use that and sort of ramp up the federal, the Fed's balance sheet. Now many individuals are going to roll their eyes at this and say oh my God, Alex, seriously. But no, seriously. Could this also be driving some of the last minute buyers shareholders?
Mike McGlone
I think that's part of it. Alex. What we're seeing is a major shift of gold coming to the US because of disparities in US comics traded gold versus what trades in London. That's usually indicative a bull market. That whole scenario I think is part of it Seems kind of odd to me. Whatever you have the price on the books or not, it still us still has about 8,000 tons of gold. It's on the books at $42 an ounce. Okay. You should be mark the market. Why not mark market? I'm just not the accountant. So I Don't really get why that's going to matter for the price of gold. It's a global commodity. And I always. One thing I've always enjoyed in the space of gold bugs is they say it's manipulated like in the US I'm like, well, it's a global commodity. It's kind of hard to manipulate something you can trade around the world. And people in India and China hoard it for a good reason, historically and particularly Turkey. But I look at that as gold has a good reason to keep going up. And that's particularly because. Let's just start. One key fact is at the end of last year, the US stock market cap, the GDP was about 2x. Now it's going back downward. It's down about $6 trillion this year. That's 20% of GDP. I mean, that's a 10. And what really matters for deflation, if that continues, that's what pressures bond yields lower, pressures the Fed to ease, pressures inflation and makes gold go higher. To me, that's the 10 that matters in gold. And then there's all those little nuances in between that you see in a normal bull market market outside of gold.
Alix Steel
What looks good to you in your space, your commodity space?
Mike McGlone
Well, what's been oddly looking really good is copper. And I'm really not on board that trade. Fundamentally, US traded copper is bumping up against the highest price ever, which is 484 in February of 2022. I mentioned that month earlier actually it was March and it keeps bumping up, but it's for the wrong reasons. Is because of that disparity between the price that trades on the CME, which is right now about $4.90 and price that trades on the LME in London. It's because US tariffs. But then it means that will be offset, money will flow, the arbitrage will kick in. It's doesn't. So I look at industrial metals as a whole indication. Copper is a bit of a nuance. Industrial metals versus gold are showing severe global deflationary potential forces. Gold going up, industrial metals not going up as much. Copper just doesn't seem like it can stay up these level levels too much unless you China really kicks in. And yeah, they're bouncing, but I don't really see it with tariffs just starting to accelerate.
Paul Sweeney
Oh, such a good point. Such a good point. If those deflationary forces are going to drag down copper as well. Mike, super great. I didn't do a year, but for you I agree with everything you said. All right, Mike, thanks. A lot. Mike McGlone and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodities Strategist joining us on Gold this is.
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Episode Title: US Consumer Sentiment Drops, Gold Breaks Through $3,000
Date: March 14, 2025
Hosts: Alix Steel and Paul Sweeney
Special Guests:
This episode centers on three major themes:
Guest: Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan
Time: [01:41]–[03:45]
Guest: Kathy Entwistle, Morgan Stanley
Time: [04:08]–[10:37]
Guest: Brian Platt, Bloomberg
Time: [10:59]–[15:41]
Guest: Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence
Time: [18:03]–[23:48]
This episode delivers a comprehensive look at how shifting policy, inflation, international tensions, and historic commodity moves are testing investor nerves—while providing practical, calmly reasoned guidance for those seeking opportunity in uncertainty.