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Host
Walmart coming out with its latest earnings report. Jen Bartashas is our senior analyst who covers retail, staples and packaged food. And Jen, I'm really interested in the interplay between oil prices and Wal Mart's sales. In particular, we know that fuel costs are definitely squeezing Walmart's consumers, yet Wal Mart says that it has managed to absorb almost all of the fuel increase.
Jen Bartashus
Yeah, it's an interesting dynamic when you, when you look at it, you know Walmart has really done a good job of shifting their business mix, which really gives them a little bit more flexibility in how they can offset unexpected high costs like we're seeing right now with fuel the consumer. For Walmart, certainly anybody in the lower end of the consumer spectrum is under some pressure that does get amplified when gas prices are higher. And so we see that. But at the same time, what it does is it does reinforce value focused shopping, which is really Walmart's wheelhouse. And so it's almost an odd situation where the more stressed the consumer is, the more likely Walmart is to be able to serve those customers not that you want that to be a never ending cycle but, but it is something that is, that is out there. You know Walmart is actually, they do sell fuel as well. And so you know, obviously higher fuel price feed their top line to a degree, especially for Sam's Club. But it is a dynamic that we're going to have to watch closely over the next couple of months.
Paul Sweeney
Talk to us about their E commerce business. Every quarter I see this revenue growth from digital and I guess this quarter is up 20 some odd percent. It is extraordinary. How, how are they doing that?
Jen Bartashus
Yeah, their E commerce business is really flourishing and to your point Paul, it's been multiple, I mean it's just on a string of Double digit high 20% mid 20% growth every quarter. And really what's happening is you're seeing a big expansion of their marketplace. So you've got more sellers coming into the marketplace, more shoppers buying on the, on the, on the marketplace and that's then feeding you know, ad revenue, it's feeding other types of revenue for the company. And so it's become this virtuous cycle where the more they're putting into it, the more people are responding and the healthier that business becomes. You know, Walmart has already said that their E commerce business is now profitable which is really great and is also fuel to that, to that growth where they can reinvest more easily because they are, you know, finding it to be a profitable business now. And you can't discount things like Walmart plus which is their membership program, their membership fee income growth was astounding this quarter. They said they had a record number of new net ads for Walmart plus this quarter. You know, and a lot of Walmart plus benefits are centered around E commerce. And so whether you're placing orders for delivery to your house, whether it's for ship to your home, all of that is contributing to that E commerce success.
Host
Yeah, their Walmart plus has a partnership with American Express Platinum and I think that has, well I signed up for the AMEX Platinum card and I'm very of well versed on all the different benefits. And this is one of the benefits to you know, steal market share away from Amazon. Do we have any sense of how well that effort is going? Walmart plus versus Amazon?
Jen Bartashus
You know, we, you know, obviously Walmart does not disclose anything about Walmart plus but when we look at our, when we do our analysis, you know, we see, you know, millions and millions of households have now joined Walmart plus and the frequency of shop is really increasing. You know, for a long time, you know, Walmart had a hard time time displacing Amazon because people's first inclination when they wanted to look for something was to go to Amazon.com and that mentality is slowly shifting and in part it's due to these, these types of memberships like Walmart Plus. So we, you know, when we estimate the number of households, you know, it's continuing to grow. The revenue generated from that is just changing the entire profit mix for Walmart. And most importantly, this is what helps keep higher income households in particular sticky with Walmart as the economy starts to improve. Because once you're in that ecosystem and you get used to the quick delivery and the ease of ordering online, you know, especially for things that you order with frequency, that makes you very sticky within Walmart and that really bodes well for just their ability to keep those customers long term.
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Host
You mentioned Nvidia Down. Nvidia was the big earnings report that we were waiting for, Paul. And I think everyone's just gotten so used to this chip maker blowing out expectations and you know, coming in with these great statements of demand, limitless demand seemingly. And the market's reaction is like whatever,
Paul Sweeney
yeah, the beat and raise and they've been so good for so long, surpassing expectations of the Street. But it's if nothing else, it's a law of large numbers, maybe a little bit of competition as well.
Host
All right, Angelo Zeno is our senior vice president and equity analyst at CFR A Research. He joins us now through Zoom. Angelo, we're looking at Nvidia shares now lower by almost 2%. Is there anything objectionable in the set of results?
Angelo Zeno
No, I mean, you know, I thought it was overall fairly clean type of number. You know, maybe the only thing that, you know, maybe wasn't as clean was the fact that they did, you know, shift their business segments around a little bit. But I think that was to be expected. I mean, it was one of those situations where when you kind of looked at everything outside of data centers, it was just such a small part of their revenue. Whether we talk about, you know, autos that about 1% of sales or kind of, you know, whatever else. Even gaming, which was once their largest business, was only, you know, mid single digit percentage of their sales. So kind of changing the way they kind of segmented and broke their revenue down I think makes a lot of sense. But when you kind of look at overall from the results here, I mean it was a, it was a solid beat and raised quarter as Nvidia has done here over the last couple of quarters. You're getting a little bit of a seller news, which is typically what you've seen here from Nvidia stock, which is now a stock trading about 18 times our expectations for 2027. And when investors really want to hear and see long term, what the answer to is the sustainability of this stuff. Right. And Nvidia can be as optimistic as they want looking out through the end of the decade, but investors are going to continue to be somewhat cautious in that outlook.
Paul Sweeney
Talk to us about customers, Angelo. You know, like they talked about maybe governments and other entities becoming big, big customers. Talk to us about that in the development of that part of the business.
Angelo Zeno
Yeah, I mean, so in kind of breaking down this revenue, essentially they within data centers, which is what, 92% of their revenue at this point in time, you're looking at about half of that or essentially exactly half of it coming from the hyperscalers. And we know what the hyperscalers are all doing. We're looking at near doubling in terms of hyperscaler capex spend here this year. And it's one of those situations where, you know, of course those growth rates are going to decelerate over time. So I think it was smart for Nvidia at this point in time to show now that breakdown in terms of what else is out there, in terms of, to your point, the sovereign opportunities, potentially what the NIO clouds have to offer, which is also, you know, in that other half of, of the bucket there where you could potentially see, let's call it strong, longer capex spend, at least on a relative basis here, longer term because there's a bigger or a larger number of participants in that basket. Right. So you've got the potential for that to be a bigger percentage of their total revenue here as we kind of look out two to three years from now. I think that's at least their expectation. And I think if you start seeing that, I think investors will reward that. So again, it's one of those situations, stock trading about 18 times next year's earnings. But if we see maybe a more favorable mix outside of hyperscalers, I think that could be a good thing. Especially since when you think about who really plays and sells these AI based servers outside of the hyperscalers, it really is largely Intel. I'm sorry, Nvidia Gotcha.
Host
Angelo, before we let you go, I got to ask about the return of cash because the CFO says they plan to return 50% of their free cash flow. This year they announced an $80 billion stock buyback plan, boosted their quarterly dividend to 25 cents a share. Does this attract a crowd of investors, a new group of investors, or is this largely built into expectations?
Angelo Zeno
I think it's a little bit built in, but I think it's a good thing to see. I mean, we're looking at them probably going to, they're probably going to return at least 100 billion, we think in back to shareholders here over the next 12 months. And the only other company that is anywhere near that is Apple at this point in time. So see, when you start looking at all the hyperscalers out there, essentially all of them have kind of refrained at this point from buying back shares, right, and increasing dividends significantly because of what they're devoting towards the capex spend. So that's all that money now is going into Nvidia. They can return that cash to shareholders and I think that is somewhat enticing to investors at this point in time. So we like the move and we think especially as growth rates start to decelerate here over the next two to three years, I think that's going to probably become a bigger part of the conversation for investors.
Paul Sweeney
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Host
All right, dear Reported earnings as well. It's a real grab bag towards the end of earnings season. You've got retailers, you've got farm machinery makers.
Paul Sweeney
Nvidia.
Host
Nvidia. Yeah, I know Nvidia is just kind of out of sync with the rest of the Mag 7 names. But Deere shares are slumping down about 8% right now. Let's bring in Chris Chilino. He is our Senior US Machinery Analyst. To recap what we learned here from the tractor maker and I guess it comes down to the farm economy is struggling and so therefore we're seeing that reflected in Deere's results.
Chris Chilino
Yeah, I mean that's part of it. The headline coming out of the quarter was that they had a big beat, but really, if you unpack that, a lot of that was driven by this IPA tariff refund that they got. If you kind of peel back the onion here, their construction business actually continues to perform quite well. Really good top line and margin performance there and the orders continue to progress nicely and small ag and turf was good as well. But the weakness on the large ag side continues to be a problem for them and really it doesn't really kind of show any signs of abating as we look through the balance of this year. You have the higher input costs, weak farm fundamentals. So still a very challenging setup as we look here in the near term.
Paul Sweeney
Chris, just by my recognition, Deere's the first company that I can think of that calls out this tariff rebate. Can you explain? So what's the company disclosing about this? How long did it take to get this rebate? Was it everything they were looking for? What are they doing with this rebate?
Chris Chilino
Yeah, so interestingly enough, I think they're the second or third company, at least in my universe, that has actually called out this refund claim. It was roughly $272 million here in the quarter. So we think it contributed roughly $0.75 in the quarter. If you look at their gross tariff impact for the year. So they were anticipating about a $1.2 billion impact for fiscal 2026. That gross number really hasn't changed. Once you take away some of the IEPA and you add back some of the section 122s and some of the other incremental tariff costs, net net, that hasn't changed. Now you have this refund. So when you look on a net basis, it's somewhere going to shake out in the $900 million range. This is relatively new for the machinery guys. I would anticipate we may hear similar from other companies next quarter. But Deere being, you know, a little bit of off cycle during their fiscal quarter, I would anticipate. Well, we'll begin to hear more of these moving forward.
Host
Okay. Well, I mean, either way, it's going to take a while for this to all get resolved. What we've seen with other heavy machinery makers, including Caterpillar, is that the boom in AI has benefited them as well. Is Deere, does Deere fit into that category is too.
Chris Chilino
It's a stretch, right? So it does help on the construction business, particularly during the early phases of any construction, whether it's excavation, anything with moving dirt. Deere has a strong and really growing position in construction equipment. And I think that's one of the big takeaways from this quarter is that construction results were very strong. The orders, again, very strong. There seems to be increasing visibility in terms of projects as we move into next year. So I think that has helped support the weakness that we're seeing on the AG side. They've introduced a whole new excavator lineup, a lot of new technology and innovations coming through on the construction side. So if we look at machinery earnings overall this season, I'd say construction continues to be one of the biggest bright spots.
Paul Sweeney
How's the US Farmer doing out there, Chris?
Chris Chilino
You know, it's tough. Continues to be tough. I sound like a little bit of a broken record with this. Seems to be a recurring theme here over the past two years. Listen, I do think that 2026 will still mark the trough of the cycle, and I do think that's important. The debate really now becomes around what the trajectory of recovery looks like. Our sense is that it's going to be a much more measured recovery as we look into 27. And really, you know, a lot kind of hinges on what happens here in the Middle East. How soon do maybe some of these fertilizer and input costs begin to come down? Yes, we've seen a little bit of a pickup in crop prices, so that helps to a degree. But we need clarity in terms of some of the input costs, again, particularly on the fertilizer side, as well as what's going to happen in terms of export markets and some of these trade relationships and to see how those materialize. So we have a much more cautious view in terms of a cyclical recovery as we look into 20.
Paul Sweeney
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Paul Sweeney
Man, it is good to be an equity capital markets reporter these days. Lots going on out there. Scarlet Fu and Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, streaming live on YouTube as well. Anthony Hughes is that equity markets Capital reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us here in studio. Anthony, the SpaceX S1 was filed yesterday, or dropped as the kids would say. Tom Keene had the notable, very keen observation.
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There's a lot of pictures, a lot
Paul Sweeney
of photographs in this prospectus. You don't typically see that. Did you take note of that?
Anthony Hughes
Yeah, there was definitely a few interesting pictures. I think the first four or five pages were rockets flying into the air, which is quite an evocative, evocative thing for an ipo. And perhaps people who don't, you know, are not they don't want to read the whole document. Will just have a look at those pictures and get excited. So that's one possibility. But there's also a rendering, I think of life on Mars, which I thought was quite interesting as well.
Paul Sweeney
Yep. So there's a lot there. And then you get to the nitty gritty. I noticed first of all, risk factors section, a solid 38 pages so I mean that takes you. I mean I used to pop out prospectuses that were 38 pages. Now I got a risk factors here. What was your takeaway from this, this filing here?
Anthony Hughes
Well, I think that there's already been so much written about this and a lot of hype, but you actually read some of the statements in print about how much of, you know, how much of the, you know, how many projects that SpaceX has that could provide the growth for the future. I mean it's quite phenomenal. And you know, people obviously really have to believe in those to get excited about this story. But you know, there's one section there which is just about the growth strategies of the company and it lists what they're doing in the space launch business which is about growing the payload capacity of, of the rockets. And they've got the rocket launch today of starship. There's in the Starlink business which is the one that's doing the best in many ways. They're looking to build out a mobile phone network there. But the really interesting one is on the AI side. They're obviously looking to substantially expand the amount of compute there and obviously put data centers in space and then some of those projects in space. The really long term stuff is quite amazing around, you know, putting a civil, as I mentioned, civilization on Mars, but also building a lunar economy and asteroid mining was one. I think they also talked about space tourism and what they call point to point terrestrial flight as well, which is like basically a spaceship replacing an airline.
Paul Sweeney
Right.
Anthony Hughes
And getting you across the world much quicker. Which is kind of an interesting, is an interesting concept. But you know, I think to your point about the risk there, space has always had a huge amount of risks. So you know, people might, with so much hype around this ipo, people might forget that space is very risky endeavor.
Paul Sweeney
I like they start off strong in this perspective. Summary. Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multi planetary, to understand the true nature of the universe and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. That's a solid sentence. I wait to find the person who wrote that one.
Anthony Hughes
Yes, yes.
Paul Sweeney
That's not an investment banker right now and I don't think.
Anthony Hughes
Yeah, I think a few people were commenting that some of this prospectus might have been written by AI. Even so I'm not sure whether AI is that creative. But yeah, I mean there's also a section of the prospectus which talks about the TAM or the Total Addressable market and they say it's the largest in human history. And interestingly, I think it's a 27, $28 trillion TAM. And, and interestingly, the largest, easily large proportion of that is actually AI. So I think a lot of people's initial reaction, maybe once they've read a bit more of the fine print about this company, is are we really investing in more of an AI story here than a space story? And the answer is, well, it may be that as we're looking to really scale up the revenue and sort of justify this $2 trillion valuation, which at the moment looks pretty, pretty far fetched, maybe there is a lot of revenue coming through AI in the next few years particularly they've got this deal with Anthropic and that is going to add a bit to revenue. So maybe you can see the revenue scale up a bit still. You'd want to see it scale up a lot to justify this valuation. That's what.
Paul Sweeney
All right, so do we know anything about any type of roadshow that the company and its advisors will go on?
Anthony Hughes
Yeah. So I mean, like any ipo, there'll be a roadshow and at the moment we think it's going to start on June 4th. So we have to wait 15 days from the filing and then we could see the IPO potentially price on June 11th is the current speculation. Then you'd have on that Friday, which is the 12th, you'd see the stock start trading. But obviously in the next few weeks we would actually see a valuation in the price range which would be, give us a much better idea of whether this is going to be a good investment or not. But obviously a bunch of hype and a lot of people are interested in
Paul Sweeney
the stock and presumably there'll be a video publicly available with kind of the roadshow presentation.
Anthony Hughes
Yeah. So typically there's a retail roadshow that's publicly available and then there's an institutional roadshow as well, which is more, you know, may include a broader, broader, broader amount, more information. But the retail roadshow would be something would be publicly available.
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This episode dives into Q2 earnings and major news from key US public companies: Walmart’s navigation of rising fuel costs, Nvidia’s post-earnings market sentiment, Deere’s performance amid farm economy struggles, and SpaceX’s much-hyped S-1 filing. The hosts leverage Bloomberg Intelligence to offer expert commentary and sharper context on Wall Street’s reaction and implications for investors.
Segment: [01:40 – 06:15]
Fuel Costs & Consumer Impact:
Walmart reports their ability to offset rising fuel costs, yet consumer pressure is real, especially for lower-income shoppers.
“The more stressed the consumer is, the more likely Walmart is to be able to serve those customers.” ([02:35])
Walmart’s Business Mix:
Walmart’s efforts to shift their business mix enable them to better withstand cost pressures like fuel.
Walmart also profits from fuel sales (notably at Sam’s Club), but must balance these against consumer squeeze.
E-commerce Momentum:
Walmart’s e-commerce business continues to post strong 20%+ revenue growth, supported by:
Expansion of its online marketplace (more sellers, more buyers)
Robust growth in ad revenue, membership (Walmart Plus)
The e-commerce division is now profitable, allowing for strategic reinvestment
Bartashus:
“It’s become this virtuous cycle… the more they’re putting into it, the more people are responding and the healthier that business becomes.” ([03:35]) “Their membership fee income growth was astounding this quarter. They said they had a record number of new net ads for Walmart Plus.” ([04:24])
Walmart Plus vs Amazon:
While specific figures aren't public, analysts estimate millions of households now use Walmart Plus.
“Once you’re in that ecosystem and you get used to the quick delivery and the ease of ordering online… that really bodes well for just their ability to keep those customers long term.” ([05:44])
Segment: [08:41 – 13:29]
Another Strong Quarter:
Nvidia again beats and raises guidance, but the market’s reaction ("sell the news") reflects sky-high expectations.
“It was a solid beat and raised quarter as Nvidia has done here over the last couple of quarters. You’re getting a little bit of a ‘sell the news’…” ([09:43])
Business Breakdown:
Nvidia restructured their reporting segments, with data centers now 92% of revenue.
"If we see maybe a more favorable mix outside of hyperscalers, I think that could be a good thing… investors will reward that." ([11:47])
Capital Returns:
Nvidia announcing plans to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, with a massive $80B stock buyback and boosted dividend:
“They’re probably going to return at least $100 billion… The only other company that is anywhere near that is Apple at this point in time.” ([12:47])
Segment: [16:33 – 21:20]
Headline Figures and Hidden Weakness:
Deere’s recent “beat” was largely due to a one-time $272 million tariff refund.
“If you kind of peel back the onion here, their construction business actually continues to perform quite well… But the weakness on the large ag side continues to be a problem.” ([17:22])
Tariff Impact Details:
Net impact of tariffs for the year could be around $900 million after the refund; machinery companies may soon report similar claims.
Construction vs. AG Segments:
“There seems to be increasing visibility in terms of projects as we move into next year… construction continues to be one of the biggest bright spots.” ([19:42])
Outlook for US Farmers:
“2026 will still mark the trough of the cycle… Our sense is that it’s going to be a much more measured recovery as we look into ’27.” ([20:24])
Segment: [24:09 – 29:25]
IPO Buzz & Prospectus Style:
“First four or five pages were rockets flying into the air… quite an evocative thing for an IPO.” ([24:42])
“There’s also a rendering, I think of life on Mars, which I thought was quite interesting as well.” ([24:50])
Growth Story Elements:
AI as a Growth Driver:
“Are we really investing in more of an AI story here than a space story?… maybe there is a lot of revenue coming through AI in the next few years.” ([27:24])
Risks & Roadshow Details:
Memorable Mission Statement:
“Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multi-planetary, to understand the true nature of the universe and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” ([27:05])
On Walmart’s resilience:
“The more stressed the consumer is, the more likely Walmart is to be able to serve those customers.” – Jen Bartashus ([02:35])
On Walmart Plus and digital loyalty:
“That really bodes well for just their ability to keep those customers long term.” – Jen Bartashus ([05:44])
On Nvidia’s market position:
“It was a solid beat and raised quarter as Nvidia has done here over the last couple of quarters.” – Angelo Zeno ([09:43])
On SpaceX’s ambition:
“Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multi-planetary…” – Quoted by Paul Sweeney ([27:05])
On Deere’s sector highlights:
“Construction continues to be one of the biggest bright spots.” – Chris Chilino ([19:42])
This episode delivers a tightly focused, insight-driven overview of current market-moving company news, useful for institutional and retail investors looking for both summary and nuance.