Warner Bros. Revenue Misses Estimates Amid Plans for Sale

Summary

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Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast

Episode: Warner Bros. Revenue Misses Estimates Amid Plans for Sale
Date: November 6, 2025
Hosts: Scarlet Fu, Paul Sweeney
Featured Analysts: Geetha Ranganathan (Media), Mandeep Singh (Technology), Poonam Goyal (Retail)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on Warner Bros. Discovery’s underwhelming Q3 results and the company’s evolving M&A outlook amid industry speculation over potential buyers and a possible breakup. The discussion extends to broader trends in media M&A, streaming, cable network strategies, and the competitive landscape in sports betting, technology, and retail—including a look at Uber, DoorDash, and Under Armour.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Warner Bros. Discovery: Revenue Miss & M&A in Focus

• Media M&A Environment
  • Hosts note the media sector is primed for deal-making, though big transactions remain speculative.
• Warner Bros. Discovery’s Performance (02:36)
  • Geetha Ranganathan:
    • “Fundamentals… really don’t matter all that much at this point.”
    • Q3 revenue dropped 6%; TV network business slumped (20% drop in TV ad revenue and EBITDA).
    • Rationale for splitting: shed low/no-growth TV assets and highlight strong studios/streaming (“studio… has a 27% share of domestic box office”).
    • Studio and streaming units are attractive to potential buyers; expected valuation for these units: $75–80 billion.
• Potential Buyers & Bidding Landscape (03:43)
  • Multiple scenarios:
    • Paramount Skydance—interested in entire company; bids raised to $23.5/share but rebuffed.
    • Netflix, Comcast—sole focus on studio/streaming assets.
    • Netflix is seriously evaluating (“looking into the books”), but not obligated to bid.
    • Big Tech like Amazon mentioned as possible dark horse (“this is… a once in a lifetime… opportunity,” 05:21).
• Valuation Expectations (09:03)
  • Geetha: “If they don’t get the price… upwards of $30 a share for the entire company, I think they will go ahead with the split and I think Zaslav is willing to wait this out…”

2. ESPN’s Pivot in Sports Betting (06:05)

• ESPN Ditches Penn National for DraftKings
  • Initial deal with Penn National was for $2 billion over 10 years but struggled; ESPN Bet only grabbed ~3% share, with poor user experience.
  • Geetha: “I think ESPN did make a good decision in dropping them and going back to DraftKings.” (06:20)
  • Market dominated by DraftKings & FanDuel (70% share), making late entry challenging.

3. Comcast’s Cable Network Split (07:14)

• Spin-Off to ‘Versant’
  • Comcast plans to carve out cable networks (except Bravo); NBC broadcast/Peacock kept in core business.
  • Geetha: “Problem with the cable network business is that it is severely challenged… more so than the broadcast business…” (07:40)
  • Despite declines (mid-single-digit EBITDA decreases), spin-off business still throws off ~$2.6 billion in cash.
• Bravo’s Value
  • Nonfiction content is cheap, migrates well to streaming, and doesn’t fit traditional cable bundle (“Cheap to make and it doesn’t necessarily fit with the rest of the portfolio.” 08:32).

4. Broader Trends: Appointment Viewing & the Persistence of Sports

• Scarlett (to Paul): “So the only appointment viewing.”
• Paul: “Exactly, exactly right.”
  • Networks still see value—especially in live sports—for drawing viewers (08:55).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fundamentals vs. M&A (02:36):

  • “Fundamentals, Scarlett, really don’t matter all that much at this point… it’s really all about the M&A.” —Geetha Ranganathan

• On the Value of Warner Bros. Studio and Streaming:

  • “Whoever makes a bid has to cough up a huge chunk of change.” —Geetha Ranganathan (04:09)

• On ESPN’s Move:

  • “They were really a late mover… by the time ESPN Bet came… DraftKings and FanDuel had already consolidated their share in the market.” —Geetha Ranganathan (06:20)

• On Cable Networks:

  • “The problem with the cable network business is that it is severely challenged, more so than the broadcast business.” —Geetha Ranganathan (07:40)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Topic | Timestamps | |---|---|---| | Warner Bros. Results, Rationale for Splitting | Warner Bros. Q3 results, M&A setup | 02:36–03:43 | | Bidders for Warner Bros. | M&A permutations, valuation | 04:09–05:21 | | Big Tech as Potential Suitors | Competitive positioning | 05:21–06:05 | | Disney/ESPN’s Sports Betting Shift | Penn/DraftKings deal fallout | 06:05–07:08 | | Comcast Cable Network Split | Versant spin-off, Bravo retention | 07:14–08:45 | | Warner Bros. Next Steps | Will the company split? | 08:55–09:22 |

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Additional Company & Sector Highlights

Technology: Uber, Lyft, DoorDash (11:13–15:33)

Guest: Mandeep Singh (Technology Lead)

• Strong growth in ride-share and delivery (Uber: 20%+, DoorDash: 25% top-line growth).
• Investor reactions turn skeptical as spending and tech investments rise—cash burn concerns from prior era linger (13:49).
• DoorDash exploring automation (humanless food delivery) and developing its own POS tech.
• Debate over Uber vs. Lyft—Uber remains top choice for convenience and speed (14:49):
  • “If you really care about your time, you still go for Uber.” —Mandeep Singh

Retail: Under Armour’s Struggles (16:42–20:34)

Guest: Poonam Goyal (Retail Analyst)

• Under Armour’s sales woes are partly “self inflicted” as the company shifts away from discount channels; lack of product innovation cited.
• Tariffs disproportionately impacting margins; gross margins down ~200 basis points.
• Industry-wide ‘reset’—Nike, Puma, and UA all rethinking strategy.
• Focus on price over brand loyalty (“I don't think the consumer is loyal to anything today.” —Poonam Goyal, 18:20)
• Reza Teleghani named CFO; no major shift in turnaround strategy anticipated.
• Holiday retail outlook: Online expected to gain share, bifurcation continues (winners: price-driven and product-focused retailers).

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Analysis & Tone

• The hosts keep a sharp, data-driven focus, prodding analysts for actionable insights and straight answers (“Could there be another bidder that emerges from the shadows?” —Scarlett, 05:13).
• Geetha’s analysis is candid and unsentimental, highlighting the dissonance between financial fundamentals and market dynamics in media M&A.
• Technology and retail segments relay a pragmatic, sometimes skeptical view—investor patience wearing thin with cash burn and “turnaround” narratives.

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Summary

This episode offers a timely, in-depth snapshot of major activity across the media, technology, and retail spaces, with Warner Bros. Discovery’s uncertain fate serving as centerpiece. Viewers learn the latest deal speculation, strategic rationales, and sector trends, all interpreted through Bloomberg Intelligence’s analytical expertise.

Transcript

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[Geetha Ranganathan]

So fundamentals, Scarlett, really don't matter all that much at this point. Especially, yes, the TV networks business as we know now for many, many quarters has been severely challenged. We saw a 20% slump in TV advertising. We saw a 20% decline in TV EBITDA. This was kind of well expected. And this really speaks to why they need to separate themselves, why they need to separ the low growth, or rather the no growth TV assets from one part, from the part of the business that's actually growing, which is studio and streaming. That part of the business actually posted really good numbers. We saw the studio, Warner Brothers has actually been having a very, very successful run at the box office this year. They have about a 27% share of domestic box office. And we've seen that kind of translate into really strong EBITDA numbers. And so we saw studio and streaming actually put up really, really good numbers. And that again speaks to why so many different part, including a Netflix, including a Comcast, are interested in going after those studio and streaming assets. So right now, again, fundamentals don't matter that much. It's really all about the M and.

[Podcast Host Paul]

A. I'm actually surprised, Geeta, that maybe we haven't had some more news on the M and A front because we've seen the M and A environment is very, very active. The market's very receptive to M and A. Here we have a willing seller. In terms of David Zaslav and the and the board of directors here, how do you think this is going to play out? Is something to make a bid for the entire company or just maybe the good pieces for it?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

We're having all possible permutations and combinations here, Paul. So we know that Paramount Skydance is actually interested in all of the company, including the TV networks. They've already made three bids. The highest one was for 23 and a half dollars per share for Warner Brothers Discovery. All of it that was turned down. So they obviously have to come up with a much better offer. Now the other bidders and the two that are most often mentioned are Netflix and Comcast. They are the ones that are only interested in the studio and streaming assets. No interest at all in the TV linear network business. We know that Netflix has started looking into the books of Warner Brothers Discovery. This doesn't necessarily mean that they have to come out with a bid. I mean, remember the book this. You know, Zaslav is, as you just mentioned, he's a very, very tough negotiator. He's a deal maker. He is going to make sure that they really get paid well for the streaming and studio assets if they sell that. And we expect, you know, a price tag somewhere in the ballpark of about 75 to 80 billion so, you know, whoever makes a big bid has to cough up a huge chunk of change for. For this asset.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

So we keep talking about how it's Netflix, Comcast and Paramount, Skydance. Could there be another bidder that emerges from the shadows?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

Absolutely. I mean, you can never rule out big tech. You know, Amazon obviously has shown some interest in the past. They bought the MGM studio. We're not necessarily sure whether they've actually taken a look at the Warner Brothers assets. But again, Scarlett, as you kind of think about the whole media landscape and you kind of think about the various assets out there, this is kind of a once in a lifetime, kind of a generational opportunity for anybody who wants to get big in media to really go after Warner. I mean, they have some of the best IP out there. They have a streaming business that has performed really well. HBO Max is a name that, that resonates across the globe. So, you know, anybody and everybody should really be taking a look at this asset. So I wouldn't be surprised if we have some kind of a dark horse bidder here.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

Okay, speaking of media companies with names, brands that really resonate, Disney's ESPN dropped Penn national as its sports betting partner and has picked up DraftKings. Why didn't they just do that the first time around?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

Yeah, that's a great question. So if you remember, actually two, three years ago, they were in talks with DraftKings. I think it ultimately came down to price. I think they got a much better deal with Penn, which was paying them something like about $2 billion over 10 years. The thing is that they were really a late mover. You know, by the time ESPN Bet came to the market with Penn, DraftKings and FanDuel had already kind of really consolidated their share in the market. They have about a 70% share of the sports betting market. Ben had a lot of problems, you know. Yes, they kind of got the product out there. They have just about maybe a 3% share. They just haven't been able to kind of convert users. The user experience hasn't been good. So I think ESPN did make a good decision in dropping them and going back to DraftKings.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Mickey Mouse in sports betting. I never thought I'd see that.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

I know, right? Well, once upon a time they were like, we're not getting into any of that.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Exactly. You're exactly right. Hey, Keith, I see our good friends at Comcast, speaking of Comcast, and they're going to. They have plans to split their cable networks apart from their broadband and cable TV businesses. And they're Going to call this lovely company Versant. Go figure. But I understand they're going to have an investor day December 4th. So it sounds like Comcast is moving forward on this split here. Give us a sense of what do you think Versant will look like and when do you think that split's going to happen?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

The split's going to happen before year end Pulse and they've, you know, they've got all the pieces moving here. This is really all of the cable networks other than Bravo and you know, so we have the USA Network, we have Golf, Sci Fi, all of these networks that they're kind of splitting out. Again, the problem with the cable network business is that it is severely challenged, more so than the broadcast business, which is why they're still keeping NBC broadcast. They're keeping the Peacock streaming platform. It's just these cable networks that have been severely challenged. You know, as we kind of model out advertising, affiliate fees and ebitda, we're kind of looking for, you know, mid single digit EBITDA decline, but it still does throw out a good amount of cash. So we're, you know, as we kind of look at it, it's two and a half, $2.6 billion in cash. So again, still a decent business.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

Geeta, why is Bravo so valuable then to Comcast?

[Geetha Ranganathan]

Because they have a lot of content and nonfiction content that they put from Bravo to Peacock and they should necessarily. It doesn't. Yeah. Cheap to make and it doesn't necessarily fit with the rest of the portfolio. So wanted to hold on to that.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

Cheap to make. I think that's a theme here, Paul.

[Podcast Host Paul]

I know, I know but and it's also about sports as well, you know, and the sports is still working for these networks and most of the broad.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

Well they all paid up a ton.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Yep.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

So the only appointment viewing.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Exactly, exactly right. Is Warner Brothers Discovery. Still thinking about a split here. Geeth at 30 seconds.

[Geetha Ranganathan]

It's anybody's guess fault. But right now if they don't get the price that they, that they want, which we think is upwards of $30 a share for the entire company, I think they will go ahead with the split and I think Zaslav is willing to wait this out and we'll see that split happen sometime in the middle of 20.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

[Baillie Gifford Narrator]

What is actual investing? We believe that it's a real world task to deliver thoughtful capital deployment. It's not about speculating over the short term. It's about understanding the long term opportunities for companies through technological progress or new business models. So we seek out those exploring big new ideas that will change the world. Then we back them to give those ideas time to flourish. Bailey Gifford Actual investors Find out [e-mail] hey, Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.

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[Podcast Host Scarlett]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Podcast Host Paul]

All right, let's talk a little technology because we got technology earnings all over the place. Mandeep Singh joins us here. Research head of Globe Bloomberg Intelligence on tech stories, Uber Lyft, they reported some numbers doordash repeated. Are people talk to us about that segment of the economy, the, the ride sharing, the outsourcing, the, you know, the third party delivery. Are people still spending money on that stuff?

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

They are.

[Mandeep Singh]

And all these companies, I mean Uber reported over 20% growth. DoorDash reported 25% top line growth. Even though the stock reaction was negative. That was primarily because they plan to spend more money next year on building their tech stack. I think what the playbook here is to expand in more geographies as well as branch out into other areas of last mile delivery. And in the case of doordash, they're experimenting with delivering food without a courier human person involved and also expanding into restaurant point of sale devices. I mean they're developing technology where you can pay using a doordash hardware and point of sale device. So clearly there is a lot that these companies are doing beyond you know, the original business that they have, you.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Know, having, you know when you spend time in England and you go pay for a meal, the card never leaves your presence. They just tap it on some machine and bum, bum, bum, bum, you're all here. They take it, they put it in a little folder, they take it away.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

For five minutes, and that's what you pay 20% for.

[Podcast Host Paul]

You don't know where it's going. And that's why I'm surprised. We're so behind here in US about that point.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

We've always been kind of behind this. You know, that's been our calling card.

[Mandeep Singh]

The way to think about it is there are so many legacy systems that anytime you have new technology, even everyone is talking about AI agents and whatnot. It has to sit on top of a lot of legacy technology. The promise of AI is it can rewrite a lot of that legacy code and migrate into the modern technology. But we have yet to come across real proof points of that.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

When you were talking Mandeep, I noticed that you talked a lot about how these companies are spending. They're investing. And I'm curious about the reception that gets from investors because initially in the big AI build up, everyone was excited about these plans, but now more and more, everyone's like, oh, I'm not so sure that's a great idea that you're spending so much, whether it's on AI or whether it's on new products and internal platform like it is with DoorDash. Why do you think investors are now more skeptical about this idea of companies spending?

[Mandeep Singh]

Just because we have seen, you know, Uber and all these companies really struggle with free cash flow initially. I mean, in the Zurb era, you know, these companies burned a lot of cash. Now they have gotten to a point where the business model does generate, you know, 7 to 8 billion dollars in free cash flow for Uber. And even for DoorDash, it's 20% EBITDA margin. So the fact that they're talking about spending, again, it makes you think, okay, if you're an investor, you waited all this while for these companies to get mature and, you know, start delivering on cash. And now they're talking about another investment cycle. And that's where, you know, in the case of Uber, it's their hand is forced by Vemo launching on tents in 10 cities and really expanding and potentially Tesla. I think in the case of DoorDash, they feel, you know, making acquisitions will help them expand their geographic footprint. And then obviously they want to expand their tech stack to more areas.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Most important, do you arbitrage Lyft versus Uber?

[Mandeep Singh]

I don't these days simply because I think what what Uber has done well is they know my preferences, especially when it comes to business travel and their, you know, frequency and their ability to reduce wait times is far beyond anyone else in terms of giving me a ride wherever I am and shrinking that wait time. I think that's very important when you compare it to autonomous driving. Like I could go to San Francisco and get a Vemma but then I have to wait for five minutes, whereas I get an Uber in less than a minute. So that's where if you really care about your time, you still go for Uber.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

Yeah, I use Lyft because I have a Chase card and I get a.

[Mandeep Singh]

$10 a month quality points is another aspect.

[Podcast Host Paul]

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[Podcast Host Scarlett]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Let's talk a little bit about companies that are affected not just by tariffs, but by a consumer that perhaps is somewhat weakened, a little bit more cautious given the softness in the job market. Let's bring in Poonam Goyal. She is our senior US E Commerc and retail analysts to talk a little bit about Under Armour, whose shares are down about 5% in late morning trading. When it comes to Under Armour, how much of the struggles that this company is experiencing is due to things like tariffs, which is beyond its control versus an overall product selection and a consumer whose taste might have shifted?

[Baillie Gifford Narrator]

Sure, I think it's a Combination of both. When you look at the top line, it's really self inflicted. Right. They're trading out of off price. They're trying to drive more full price sales. They're really revamping their whole message, trying to resonate better with consumers. So that's why we continue to see weakness there. They need to drive more product innovation. But then when it comes to margins, it's a little bit of both. Tariffs are impacting them, in fact, more than some of our other companies who have been largely able to offset these headwinds. They are not able to. And that's sending gross margins down about 200 basis points for their fiscal year.

[Podcast Host Paul]

So I think about that, you know, athletic market plume. It just feels super uber competitive to me. Is this a place where Under Armour can win vis a vis the Nikes of the world? The Adidas?

[Baillie Gifford Narrator]

Yeah. Look, I think the market is growing in competitiveness. You're absolutely right. It feels like every company right now in the athleisure space is on a reset mode. When you think of Nike, they're under reset. Puma's under reset. Under Armour is under reset. Right. So they're all going after the same customer, but in a different way. Nike, clearly the giant in the room, they have the dollars to invest in brand marketing and endorsements so they can continue to step harder on innovation when it comes to Under Armour. I think we've heard the story so many times now, Paul. I mean, I've heard their turnaround and seen it go up and then away every couple of years. So will this be the time they get it right? It's really hard to tell because right now they've controlled their inventories, which is a good thing. They're down 6%. They're down more than the sales decline. But the innovation ebbs and flows. So will it stick? Will the consumer, you know, stay committed and loyal to Under Armour? I don't think the consumer is loyal to anything today.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

That's a really good point. They're loyal to price. Price first is what they're loyal to and deals. Poonamba. Under Armour also announced a new executive, a new CFO for the company. Reza Teleghani will be taking over starting in February. Does this raise concerns about not leadership so much, but in terms of strategy for the company? Because as you mentioned, feels like Under Armour has been in turnaround mode for a long time.

[Baillie Gifford Narrator]

It doesn't concern me about the strategy. He was a CFO in his prior role as well with another company. I think the leadership is really identified by the CEO Kevin Blank in this example. And he has a plan to lead this turnaround. And the plan is pretty basic. It's not anything new. It's returning back to product customer innovation and going back to full price selling to maintain brand health. That is retail 101 playbook for any brand. And he's just going back to the roots. So I think the strategy is right. It's whether the customer will respond and whether they will drive enough innovation. But innovation with performance, I think that's what you need from an athletic wear brand and that's where they need to put the focus.

[Podcast Host Paul]

Putam how's the holiday shopping season shaping up? What are the expectations?

[Baillie Gifford Narrator]

The expectations are for at least for online? You know, we think online will continue to gain share over the holiday season. We do see strength. I mean, I cover Amazon as well and I think Amazon's going to have a great holiday season. In terms of the broader retail, I think what you'll see again is a bifurcation in trends. The retailers that push the pedal on price and have the product the consumers desire will take share. But then those in the middle still stand to fall behind. And that's been the case for many years now. It hasn't changed.

[Podcast Host Scarlett]

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 10am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio, Apple TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[Podcast Host Paul]

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