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- [00:00]
Scarlet Fu
When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business is a pay in full card that elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits that will take your business to the next level. Sapphire Reserve for business offers 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, airport lounge access, and more. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business it's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more@chase.com ReserveBusiness Chase for Business make more of what's yours Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC so there's a lot
- [00:44]
IBM Representative
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- [01:13]
The Hartford Representative
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- [01:56]
Scarlet Fu
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News Bloomberg Money.
- [02:07]
Tom Keene
This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with Scarlet Fu. Join us each week for a smart look at the forces shift shaping your financial life. On personal finance, on retirement and wealth management, we will explore how people are earning, investing and building wealth. We are live Fridays at noon Eastern on Bloomberg Television. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, we've got a Bloomberg panelist Worthy is here to get us started. David Gura is with us. Lots to talk about with him really. Closer to the election in November, Mandeep Singh hasn't slept in three days. He joins us with Bloomberg and tells you two were just together.
- [02:52]
David Gura
Yes, we were. Well, yeah thank you. Thank you.
- [02:57]
Tom Keene
And with us today is Katherine Greifeld. Katie Greifeld, expert on ETFs. And you know, I got at the surveillance Rolodex and the Bloomberg money bolt on Rolodex and I said, who knows about Trump accounts? And we had exactly one person within the system ready to look at Trump. Are you going to have a Trump account with a newly issued child?
- [03:17]
Katie Greifeld
I mean, it's for children, kids born between 2025 and 2028. So I'm in the sweet spot here.
- [03:23]
David Gura
Thousand bucks. It's like an extra thousand.
- [03:25]
Katie Greifeld
I would never say no.
- [03:26]
Tom Keene
But critically here, grandparents can put money in.
- [03:30]
Katie Greifeld
Yes, but only up to five grand a year.
- [03:33]
Tom Keene
A year, yes, but they can do that till the kid's 18 or 20 or that. Theoretically, this is a building account. It goes into ETFs. How big a deal is this for Eric Balchunas world?
- [03:43]
Katie Greifeld
I mean, he's just been on fire higher this week, as Scarlet Fu knows. Well, since we co anchor ETF IQ with him, I mean, it is really interesting that the five initial accounts that were selected were ETFs. There's one default account to start, that's the ticker is SPY. It's a State Street S&P 500 ETF. The fee, the annual fee on that account is just 2 basis points. That's 0.02%. And that's pretty much, I think, why it was chosen.
- [04:10]
Scarlet Fu
It's super cheap, so Baby Greifeld is going to win.
- [04:12]
Mandeep Singh
There you go.
- [04:14]
Tom Keene
The ETF market is extraordinary. I mean, it just builds out and builds out. What I think is cool is if the Trump account extends out into like the Gura offspring, so it goes from one to two years. It, you know, they build it out of that.
- [04:29]
Scarlet Fu
Well, the industry loves what's happening and we can really see that with State street on the other ETF issuers as well. Of course, when we talk about ETFs, I want to bring in Mandeep here. Especially with the start of SK Hynix trading, there are a lot of ETFs that are really tied to SK Hynix performance and memory chip makers as a whole. And this just kind of supercharges that that obsession.
- [04:50]
Mandeep Singh
It does. And look, we heard quite a few new terms today from the chairman's interview. Memory as a service, that really caught my attention. You know, we talk about memory in the context of a commodity and you know, with booms and busts, he sounded a lot more confident in terms of one, he has visibility to this Cycle in terms of extending through the end of the dec. And also new things like memory as a service where they're thinking about new business models in terms of kind of just being the memory provider and kind of doing, just going
- [05:25]
Tom Keene
out to a new high. Keep talking, man.
- [05:28]
Scarlet Fu
So South Korea is kind of the epicenter of the trade right now, right? I mean they, they are really where the market is booming. The South Korean stock market, the Cosby is the world's best performing index. There's a lot of retail participation in that market. And that's kind of split spilling over to the rest of the world.
- [05:45]
Mandeep Singh
It is. And look, when it comes to HBM, you have to look at the exposure. So SK Hynix has told us they have 57% market share. So if that is the hot part of the market, then they have a much bigger market share than a micron which is being on a tear.
- [06:02]
Tom Keene
Two of you. Yeah, this is way too technical. He lost me with hbm.
- [06:06]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah, all that.
- [06:07]
Tom Keene
The two of you. I want to talk about, about this. The political stick of this is we're going to employ America. Do you believe that the Asian manufacturers can come over here and get the quality of employment that they have in Asia?
- [06:19]
Mandeep Singh
I think again, based on the chairman's comments, it sounded like it's going to take a couple of years just to set the initial $35 billion investment, kind of show some results.
- [06:30]
Tom Keene
Answer my question. Do we have the bodies, the intellect, the drive to be as quality of employees as we see in Asia?
- [06:37]
Randy Krosner
No.
- [06:38]
Mandeep Singh
I think we may be better off on the infrastructure side. But in terms of the talent side, there is more work to do.
- [06:43]
Tom Keene
Political football in Washington, isn't it?
- [06:46]
David Gura
Yeah. But I was struck by how agnostic the chairman seemed in talking about this. He said once the best talent anywhere and he's focused here on the US he seemed gleeful to say there'd been this $35 billion investment and said there's the prospect for much more investment in the US Going forward here. But kind of look at that. Injects position with what we heard from Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary yesterday, saying he's kind of tightening the screws on. Yes, SK Hynix and Samsung as well to do more in the United States. And to me, yes, there's the kind of talent and resources side of this, Tom. The other facet here is will that be effective? Is he going to be able to. Is the administration going to be able to get these companies to do more in the US by sheer will?
- [07:21]
Scarlet Fu
I think That's a really good point. Especially because Mandeep, this listing is to fund the build out of factories inside South Korea. Isn't that going to be a problem, David Gura, for this administration that they're raising money in the US to, to build more factories in Korea.
- [07:35]
David Gura
Yes. And they have this. Correct me if I'm wrong. I think like an $800 billion commitment to 800 billion won commitment to do more work in South Korea. I think he was saying this would be kind of complementary to this, that he is focused on the US as well. But yeah, that is part and parcel of this. How much of this is going to be raised in the US and stay in the US versus go back.
- [07:50]
Mandeep Singh
When it comes to the factories, you also have to think about what is the leading node versus what is, you know, technology that is more mature. I doubt they are going to set up their leading node factories. You know, being the first one here in the US to do that. It will be more advanced like the mature nodes.
- [08:08]
Tom Keene
What are you looking at, Bloomberg this weekend? What are you looking at in Washington? We are, besides everyone worried about the Senator. Yes.
- [08:16]
David Gura
Mitch McConnell still ailing. We're looking at obviously the conflict in the Middle East. We had the President sign today. The cease fire is off formally, but the talks continue. What can be accomplished here? We have Michael McCaul, the chairman emeritus of the House Foreign Affairs Committee joining us and the Chief of Naval Operations as well. So get a sense of how things
- [08:32]
Tom Keene
are in the control room. They have Greifeld's people saying we haven't spent enough time with Katie, you know, save me.
- [08:38]
Scarlet Fu
Yes, absolutely. And Katie, I know that you are on top of all the ETFs. There's going to be leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix. That is going to be a big deal next week.
- [08:46]
Katie Greifeld
Oh, big time. I mean, you think about all the, the different issuers trying to get out their products out there. Not that SK Hynix, the way it trades, needs leverage on top of it. But certainly that is the gold rush going on in the ETF industry. I will point out, you know, you think about US appetite for exposure to SK Hynix. We have, you know, one facet to look at that. It's an ETF called DRAM, which we talk about a lot. It launched three months ago. It's already more than $20 billion in assets. And I was shining with Eric Balchunas, of course, before the show.
- [09:16]
Tom Keene
Right.
- [09:16]
Katie Greifeld
It trades about as much as Apple. So this is an extremely popular trade Right now.
- [09:21]
Unidentified Speaker
And you're seeing that in the retail investors.
- [09:23]
Tom Keene
Yeah, I don't have time to talk to you. I have time to talk to you. I have space X below 149. Is it going to 135? I mean, is it like bit dog where we're 110 and we're enjoying 60 and so we're going to have Space X fail? I'm not comparing it to SK Hynix, but this isn't good, right?
- [09:41]
Katie Greifeld
Well, I would say that Space X, I've been thinking about it as a really interesting petri dish because you have all the index inclusions. This is the most the general public has ever cared about index methodology. But you also have the lockup expiries starting off this month. So it's going to be, you know, some really interesting forces all coming together on SpaceX. I'm not sure if you can say right now it's trading on fundamentals as
- [10:05]
David Gura
the Tom Keene triple leveraged all Capsules cash fund made a transition to ETF land.
- [10:08]
Tom Keene
Yet we did a 15% gross after 3% 300 basis points. We came in 12% net clean last quarter.
- [10:15]
David Gura
But in the Trump account it was great,
- [10:19]
Tom Keene
actually. We could do that. The three of you, thank you. But particularly to Mandeep Singh and Anuragrana and all of our tech people, your leadership on this has just been absolutely superb. Randy Krosner is a math prodigy out of Brown University, owns a high ground in financial economics in America. So good. At a very young age he became a governor of the Federal Reserve System, foundational to the University of Chicago Booth School and particularly their expansion over to Europe. We're thrilled he could join us today, really. Thank you so much for being with us. I'm not going to mince it, it's about inflation. British, bring up the chart right now. Randy, I'm glad you're remote because you'd be in tears if you saw this chart. It's the inflation we're living. And the idea here, thank you, John Taylor, Stanford, is we need 2% inflation. Okay, well, there's 2% inflation. It's the green line. And the answer is the presidential moving average.4 quarter moving average is elevated. Covid and all the rest. Randy, do you want to flip first order basis? Have a real conviction we can get back anywhere near 2% inflation?
- [11:32]
Randy Krosner
Well, I think we can. It's not going to happen in the next quarter. It's not going to happen by the end of the year. But I do think that within, let's say a year to 18 months, we can be pretty close.
- [11:44]
Scarlet Fu
Okay, so when we talk about 2% inflation, the Fed focuses on core PCE, which backs out food and gas, not the headline inflation number. The new fetcher, Kevin Warsh, prefers the Dallas Fed trimmed mean, which moves that takes out the outliers. So kind of like a judge in figure skating, you throw out the top score and the bottom score. So my question is, Randy, for consumers, this can feel like a very narrow way of measuring inflation. You remove food, you remove gas, you remove the outliers at both ends. It leaves you something in the middle that doesn't reflect anyone's lived experience and then making policy based on it. Is this something that can or should be fixed?
- [12:21]
Randy Krosner
So I always joke that it's only an economist who could think about the consumer basket as excluding anything about eating so you would starve to death, and anything about driving or keeping your house warm or cool. So the reason for doing that is not because of lack of concern about people, but it's really looking for what is going to be the best metric for seeing where inflation is going to, rather than looking at inflation in the rearview mirror. Because we're of course, always getting data from the past, not from, you know, we want to figure out what's going on in the future. So the idea behind it is the starting in the 1970s was to take out the high volatility sectors, things like food and energy, because that's a lot of noise. It's not necessarily telling you where things are going. Trim mean in some sense is a version of that. Because if you think about what taking out food and energy is, you're just saying, well, we always want to trim out the volatile food and energy sectors because we think of those as outliers. The Dallas Fed approach is saying, well, we don't know from month to month what the extreme is going to be. So let's trim those out. Because if something is moving a lot, one month might be coming back the next month.
- [13:34]
Tom Keene
Randy, I want to cut to the chase. Brown University tuition, since COVID is gone from 74,000, they're top and ticking it this year at 97,000. That's what our viewers and personal finance retirement, that's what they feel in the worry here is a sustained inflation where we don't get legitimate real wage growth. Is that a risk for our, our savers, our personal finance in America, that we don't get legitimate wage growth?
- [14:06]
Randy Krosner
That's, that's a real risk. And that's really the key thing. And you really put your finger on it because the key is how much are people making relative to how much things cost. So if your wages are going up at 10% and inflation is 5%, you're feeling pretty good because even though prices are higher, you still have really strong purchasing power. But if it's the opposite, that that price has gone up 10% and your wages have only gone 5%, you're pretty upset because you can barely put food on the table. So that's really the relevant thing. And that's what Kevin is focusing on because he's saying, well I'm very optimistic about what AI is going to do. Increasing productivity and increasing real wages. Of course that's a bet, but you know, that's what he's focusing.
- [14:48]
Tom Keene
We don't have time for this on Bloomberg Money, but I'm just going to say I was blown away by everything about the Wash task forces except Krosner's not on there. Why is Randy Krosner not on the task force? You know this. Let's go to Randy now. Adam Posen and Peter Orszag. It may be my essay of the year. The risk of higher US inflation. Orsage and Posen push against Hatzius at Goldman Sachs. A tighter labor market reflecting the effects of the shift in immigration. Monetary policy looser than commonly appreciated and inflationary expectations. Inflation, they would suggest Scarlet is drifting higher.
- [15:27]
Scarlet Fu
Right. I mean what it comes down to Randy, is that amen to meaningful segment of the population. The hollowed out middle class, young people in particular, they've lost faith in the ability of the Fed to do anything on reducing inflation. They've gravitated to things like crypto or prediction markets as a solution. They're from their point of view the system is broken and they might as well bet on low probability, high impact outcomes. How problematic is this behavior for you know, the stability of the economy, the stability of the financial system.
- [15:56]
Randy Krosner
And you also see with meme stocks too, it's another example of people taking the high risk bets and maybe it'll pay off but it's awfully risky. So I think there is a breakdown of trust and I think that is a real problem. We saw that because inflation went up so high when the Fed was saying transitory, transitory, transitory as inflation kept spiraling higher and higher. And Kevin Washing made it really clear when, when asked about these sorts of things that I'm not getting into that game of saying what's on going transitory or not. What I'm going to do is try to get Big picture trends in the economy. Where broadly is inflation going? What are the key drivers behind inflation and what is the role of productivity growth? So that's what he's going to try to do to get restore faith in the Fed rather than those short term predictions that although the Fed is probably the best predictor of anybody, they're still not very good.
- [16:45]
Tom Keene
Randy, your advice here, I think of Booth School in Chicago, Steve Lovett, Freakonomics, everything that Becker did. I mean the heritage here of our system economics. Do you have a confidence that we will solve our retirement system the next go around of Social Security reform and indeed retirement reform?
- [17:09]
Randy Krosner
I think it'll never be fully solved. You know, we had, we've had patchworks that come every decade or so when we see that the Social Security trust fund is going to run out of resources. And the most recent report says it's coming pretty soon, 2030, 2032. And, and so it's really, it's, it's not purely economics, it's really political economy. What will the politicians be willing to do? So one of the obvious fixes is to increase retirement age. When this was first implemented by Roosevelt people, people's expected lifetime was much, much shorter than it is today.
- [17:45]
Tom Keene
Yes.
- [17:46]
Randy Krosner
And we've moved things up a little bit, but not nearly as much to reflect much better health outcomes that people have totally. And so there are a whole variety of things that could be done to address that.
- [17:56]
Tom Keene
Randy, I got to go. We got to get you in New York. Next time for Bloomberg Money, Governor Kroszner. Professor Kroszner, of course, always forever with the University of Chicago. We're going to migrate here to the equity markets is continued bull market. Coming up, Cameron Dawson of New Edge Off. What am I going to focus on? Scarlet's got a list of questions. I'm going to focus on my need to rebalance. I'm unbalanced to rebalance.
- [18:21]
Scarlet Fu
We head into the second Cameron Dawson.
- [18:23]
Tom Keene
Next is Bloomberg Money. Stay with us.
- [18:27]
The Hartford Representative
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- [19:23]
Tom Keene
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Tom Keene
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David Gura
Customers will pay $25 a month as
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Tom Keene
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- [21:13]
Tom Keene
On a Friday Bloomberg Money Tom Keene
- [21:15]
Scarlet Fu
with Scarlet Fu Scarlett well, SK Hynix, the Korean memory chip maker surging above its offer price in its US Debut. So let's go now to BTECH Anchor at Ludlow Live at the nasdaq. And Ed, you got to speak with the chairman of SK Hynix. What did you learn from him that's relevant to retail investors looking to bank big on SK Hynix?
- [21:34]
Ed Ludlow
Three things big big investments in the USA are coming they're committed to 35 billion and that number is going to get much, much, much, much more bigger. This was an ADR listing that wasn't just about the proceeds. He's coming for the talent, Chairman Che. He wants to see American engineers powering their position in the memory market, which is number three. They got 57%, 7% market share in high bandwidth memory. That is the chip, the thing that everyone cares about in this story right now. The main thing is that the US Retail investor is sophisticated and educated about what goes into a server design in a data center. They know how critical that HBM is and that's why SK came knocking at the nasdaq.
- [22:15]
Scarlet Fu
Fantastic. Thank you for that round of SK Hynix, of course, trading in its market debut here in the U.S. ed Ludlow BTech anchor, joining us from the NASDAQ. It is time for banking on books. And my book is Strangers, a Memoir of Marriage by Bell Burden, first published in January, now in its 12th printing. This is a financial horror story. Yes, 12 printing. Because Bell Burden's husband walked out on her and the kids at the start of COVID She had quit her job to raise the kids. Her husband worked and managed a family finances. That was not a good setup for that situation. And there's also this fascinating overlap with privilege and status because she's New York society. There's trust funds involved, there's withering glares from married couples.
- [22:55]
Tom Keene
Stillman did what Stillman define the Upper east side law body to our world. And she just absolutely nailed it.
- [23:03]
Scarlet Fu
Well, this was a fantastic read. And it's so interesting because it sparked a lot of conversation among people, certainly in New York, because she's a New York society woman. And that gets to what we've done here at Bloomberg Money. The Bloomberg Money team wrote about this book and how it's sparking all these discussions everywhere about marital finance. Nikki Waller leads that coverage for us here at Bloomberg, and she joins us now. And Nikki, this is something where women are in book clubs, are talking about it and they are taking more control of their finances and taking a deep dive into financial planning to understand their household finances.
- [23:36]
Lisa Mateo
It's just as you said, people are reading this book as a cautionary tale and a horror story and they are phoning their financial advisors and saying, I need to crack open the books on my finances with my husband or partner.
- [23:49]
Scarlet Fu
And this is the case where women are often out earn their husbands or they're at parody, except when they take time off to have kids and they kind of lose some Ground here. So there's this extra urgency and this. Once there was a stigma about talking about all of this before getting married, but it's not becoming the case anymore. It's more practical now.
- [24:07]
Lisa Mateo
It is less of a stigma. But even so, the numbers show that a lot of women, close to half are entrusting their husbands with all of the financial decision making.
- [24:17]
Tom Keene
Right. I. We all have our horror stories in our families of this. I have multiple horror stories of I'm the man, I'm smarter than you are. Leave me alone. Just trust me. I'll give you the passwords when I die. That's the status quo still.
- [24:32]
Katie Greifeld
Yeah.
- [24:32]
Lisa Mateo
And we have really smart people. I mean, take Bell Burden. She is an Ivy League educated corporate lawyer and she still handed this over. And I think a lot of this talks about comes back to the gendered ways we think about money, that this is men's work and this is women's work. And it's kind of cool to hear from these women who are cracking the books and even their husbands are saying,
- [24:51]
Scarlet Fu
well, finally there is a broader trend, and this is something you guys wrote about too, of young couples signing prenups. This idea that it's not just men or wealthy. The wealthy partner in the group. Everyone is kind of inquiring about this and looking into this to protect whatever assets or liabilities that they come into the marriage with.
- [25:10]
Lisa Mateo
And there are so many reasons for this. People are marrying later in life.
- [25:13]
Randy Krosner
They have.
- [25:14]
Lisa Mateo
We talk about this all the time. They have more investments, more stockholding. So it's not like getting married at age 20 or 21. And both. Both partners have very little. People are coming into marriage with their
- [25:26]
Scarlet Fu
own kind of book of business, frozen eggs. Also one of the assets that people, you know, have to kind of delineate student debt in terms of liabilities. These are all things to consider.
- [25:35]
Lisa Mateo
Pets, social media followers.
- [25:38]
Scarlet Fu
Pets and social media followers as part of your prenup. I bet that came up in the Taylor Swift Travis Kelsey prenuptial agreement.
- [25:44]
Tom Keene
What did you like the wedding? I mean, did you get.
- [25:47]
Scarlet Fu
I haven't seen any pictures. I've only seen other.
- [25:49]
Tom Keene
I thought you went out.
- [25:50]
Scarlet Fu
This was a limited Invite list is a limited.
- [25:54]
IBM Representative
Yeah.
- [25:54]
Tom Keene
List we'll have to see. We were advantage because Cam Dawson was with us the day of the wedding and she knows every tailor swift lyric there is to know.
- [26:02]
Lisa Mateo
Does she?
- [26:03]
Tom Keene
Which is almost as good as her equity knowledge. Here at Bloomberg Money, we like to talk to people with deep knowledge, what is known as domain knowledge. Cameron Dawson owns the Absolute high ground on the equity markets at new edge. Well, I'm thrilled to have you here for a two hour conversation. We're going to squeeze in and next to nothing our bull market is this bull market.
- [26:24]
Cam Dawson
Oh, it is certainly a bull market, not just within prices but certainly within the earnings. And that's why this market has been so powerful and resilient to everything you've thrown at it this year is because unlike prior times when you've had things like energy shocks and geopolitical crises and you would see earnings estimates get cut, you've seen earnings estimates go up 20% on a 12 month forward basis this year is why this market has been able to shake off any kind of
- [26:51]
Tom Keene
negative news on a personal finance basis. Are we enjoying it or are we totally out of whack where our allocation should be?
- [26:59]
Cam Dawson
Well, if you look at the aggregate allocation metrics out of something like American association of Individual Investors, what you can see is equity allocations are at all time highs at 71% allocation. So this gets you back to prior highs that we saw in times like 2021 or 2018. So certainly this looks like an individual or a household area that is all in on equities. You see a very different story when you look at institutions where institutions are the ones who've been sitting on the sidelines. Something like Deutsche Bank's Consolidated Equity Positioning is just in the 41st percentile. So it's a tale of very different cities. Households are all in, institutions are on the sidelines.
- [27:38]
Scarlet Fu
Interesting dichotomy there. You look at the s and P500, we've had three straight years of the double digit gains. The S and P is up about 10 and a half percent. Now when we're in this long running bull market like we have right now, do individual investors turn to tend to turn more conservative, stay with what's worked, you know, buy and hold. Or are they more willing to go out on a limb and consider, you know, moving some assets into uncorrelated securities or products, you know, maybe venture into private assets.
- [28:06]
Cam Dawson
Well, I think there's two different questions there because the first one is do people start chasing the hot dot when it comes to market leadership? And one of the reasons why the quality anomaly exists, why if you look over the long run the quality factor has actually added a lot to portfolios from a return basis and not added to risk, is because people do tend to chase the hot dots in markets like this. They want the non profitable tech company, they want this shiny new object. But what you find Is that just, just as fast as those kind of assets go up, you have the same kind of problem where they can have very deep corrections on the other side. When we think about allocating to private markets, that's where you're looking and saying, look, we've had 15 years of effectively double the average returns for public markets. So we need to diversify the return streams, diversify the income streams. And you need to look to private markets in order to find those different sources of ways to get to over our portfolio diversification.
- [29:02]
Tom Keene
Let's go. Can we go, Matthew, on a Friday? Let's go, Matthew. Here it is right now. This is one of the most famous money must reads out of the Wall Street Journal years and years ago, 2003
- [29:13]
Scarlet Fu
back in the archives.
- [29:14]
Tom Keene
Mark Harvard. Yeah. As an extreme example, consider the equity allocation of 1793. Today you would be 99% equities and all stock portfolio. Over time, much resources riskier than a classic 6040. Cam Dawson, explain the best approach on the X axis to proper retirement allocation.
- [29:35]
Cam Dawson
Well, I think that there has to be a very holistic approach to the entirety of somebody's not formulaic. Not formulaic. And I think that this is the big issue within wealth management is that most people try to make everything institutional and homogenous. They try to treat everybody the same, same. But just as we talked about with things like financial planning and wealth strategy and something like prenups, those considerations have to be reflected in the portfolio. Those liquidity needs have to be reflected in the portfolio. So having the right allocation is not just going on the efficient frontier. It's actually doing the holistic work to understand somebody's complete balance sheet in order to get the mix of assets that allows them to withstand volatility.
- [30:15]
Tom Keene
Nikki, help me here with the all your experience on this, from John Templeton to William Bernstein to all of rebalancing and the formulaic approach. It's a cottage industry of reallocation along the way rebalancing, isn't it?
- [30:29]
Lisa Mateo
Yeah. No one makes money if you just leave everything alone.
- [30:34]
Scarlet Fu
That's very well said. You said the quiet part out loud. Cuts to the chase at the quiet part out loud.
- [30:39]
Tom Keene
I mean, it's an industry thing, right?
- [30:41]
Lisa Mateo
I mean, one of the most interesting, interesting stories we're seeing this Morning is that JP Morgan built an AI that can outdo the 6040 portfolio.
- [30:50]
Scarlet Fu
These are really good points.
- [30:51]
Tom Keene
And I guess that Gabby Santos was on the other day. Is she out of a job? Is Gabby Santos out of a job
- [30:57]
Lisa Mateo
with AI I think Gabby Santos will always have a job. But the ways that people are using AI to trade and beat the formulas we've always had, this is something to watch.
- [31:09]
Scarlet Fu
I want to go back to that point, Cam, where you talked about tailored portfolios, tailored allocations, and tailored approaches to managing your portfolio. Does that mean things like model portfolios, which are kind of cookie cutter, don't make sense for wealth investors?
- [31:23]
Cam Dawson
I think that as somebody's wealth grows and as they get even more complicated, typically we do see complications or certainly expand as the amount of assets. Assets do grow, that we find that we have to tailor different portions of the portfolio to have the right kind of allocation. Because if you have high liquidity needs, having something that's invested in completely private markets means absolutely no sense. So instead of treating an allocation like going to a big golden corral and everything off the menu, you really have to choose the things that are having the right functions for what you need.
- [31:57]
Tom Keene
How much of our certitude about this? What next? Nikki Waller deals with every single day. The myth that we have the foundations was built on the great moderation, where it was just price up, yield down forever. And then in 2022 we hit a wall.
- [32:13]
Cam Dawson
Well, and I think that all of these asset allocations, these mean variance optimizations, are all built on one very problematic assumption, which is that you'll have standard normal outcomes that you will have.
- [32:25]
Scarlet Fu
You can buy outcomes.
- [32:27]
Tom Keene
Could you see? Did you. Would you tear up over that standard normal outcomes. We're going to go Gaussian in a moment. Finish up and save the interview.
- [32:36]
Scarlet Fu
So I guess what it comes down to is any portfolio, especially one tailored for an individual, needs to account for emergency liquidity.
- [32:42]
Cam Dawson
Yes.
- [32:43]
Scarlet Fu
Where does that come from?
- [32:44]
Cam Dawson
Well, I think that it's building out a certain degree of. Of a cash side of portfolios to meet the liquidity needs over a shorter period of time. Time. Having an income generation part of the portfolio that has income sources from different sources. So this is not just fixed income bonds generating income. It's looking at something like potentially private credit. If you can absorb the illiquidity there in certain areas, do it carefully. GP stakes. And so you have to think about diversification not just within the overall asset class, but what you're trying to achieve
- [33:14]
Tom Keene
by each asset class was becoming a ballerina years ago. Seriously, you like, really good at it. Is it expensive?
- [33:21]
Cam Dawson
Oh, extraordinarily, yes.
- [33:23]
Tom Keene
Like stupid expensive.
- [33:24]
Cam Dawson
I mean, my parents told me that they spent all my college money on doing that, so I had to figure out something else for college.
- [33:28]
Tom Keene
That's what we're going to cover next. Thank you. Kim Dawson, thank you so much for being with us. Fabulous. I'm going to feature my Twitter feed and LinkedIn feed I'm going to be doing this afternoon is off of Kim Dawson's work. It's on rebalancing coming up. What are we going to do on Bloomberg Money? We're going to talk about youth sports in the expense soccer, ballet, hockey.
- [33:50]
Scarlet Fu
Nikki Waller, did you play sport in your youth?
- [33:53]
Lisa Mateo
Poorly. I played softball.
- [33:55]
Scarlet Fu
She played softball and her parents spent money on it, I'm sure.
- [33:57]
Tom Keene
Yeah. Lisa Mateo is the whole softball thing as well. Is hockey the worst? I think so, yeah.
- [34:02]
Scarlet Fu
Well, the travel part is youth sports.
- [34:04]
Tom Keene
Stay with us.
- [34:05]
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Tom Keene
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- [36:51]
Scarlet Fu
France winning last night in a World cup match against Morocco. Spain and Belgium facing off tonight in the quarterfinals. Is this all you guys watch at home now?
- [36:59]
Tom Keene
It's, it's like ridiculous. Would it go away? It's changed our lives. It's really enjoyable. I love watching Telemundo, to be honest.
- [37:06]
Scarlet Fu
Yes. Because it's, it's a whole different, different
- [37:09]
Tom Keene
culture and energy and that's just fabulous.
- [37:11]
Scarlet Fu
Were you following Team USA is carefully?
- [37:13]
Tom Keene
No.
- [37:14]
Scarlet Fu
Well, I mean, after last week, you know, kind of a disappointment.
- [37:18]
Tom Keene
Really upset about that many. I was not alone on that.
- [37:21]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah. Well, the U.S. team's loss of Belgium in the World cup has revived this growing concern among Americans, which is a rising cost of youth sports. According to one estimate from the Aspen Institute, family spending on youth Sports is up 46% over the last five years. Our senior reporter, Randall Williams, he covers business of sports, has been following this story and he joins us now. And Randall, by some estimates, this is a $40 billion plus industry that is funded by private equity. And so no surprise then it's become hyper competitive and hyper specialized.
- [37:51]
Randall Williams
Yeah, I mean, when private equity gets into something, of course they want to maximize profit. And that's not always a good thing for youth sports. People think of youth sports as the level before college sports. And college sports, of course, is welcoming private equity. Well, but with nil, with a bunch of different mechanisms, we. It's sort of the amateur level. And I think youth sports isn't meant to be that, but it's becoming that because you can identify talent earlier on, which therefore could lead to brand collaborations and so many other things. So youth sports is a huge industry that we're seeing private equity get into, get into and other investors as well.
- [38:22]
Scarlet Fu
How has technology accelerated this? Because we talk about private equity getting in, we talk about nil, that those are cheap, distinct things. But technology has made it even more Hyper, hyper intense.
- [38:34]
Randall Williams
Well, it's interesting, like when I was growing up, like my dad and my mom would have a film camera that they would shoot it for, but that was just for fun. Like I had my aspirations of going to the NFL ended at 15. But now you have people using apps like Game Changer, which you can literally just film the entire thing, create a highlight reel for your child and then email it to scouts themselves. And of course the supporters behind an app like Game Changer are going to pour money into it, say use our app, and then you can go and market yourself. And a lot of times this nil money that athletes are able to sign earlier and earlier can change a family's life. So the parents are pushing it and having to spend more as well.
- [39:09]
Tom Keene
Exactly like you. I remember exactly where I was standing when I realized I would not play for the Montreal Canadiens. Are we telling the kids today? I'm sorry, name, what's it name? Image, likeness. Yeah, you're playing D3 if you're lucky. Are we within all the different sports informing the children of how special those people are playing major D1 and pro?
- [39:32]
Randall Williams
I don't think so, not anymore. And the reason for that is because, you know, do have low level athletes who can make anywhere from 50 to 60 to 20 to 30 to sometimes hundreds of thousand dollars a semester. And so their families are like, listen, you don't have to go to the NFL, the NBA, the mlb, the MLS and so many other leagues anymore. You just have to go and play in college as long as you can so that you can provide for our family for a four to five year period and then they go into jobs like us. And so it is a very interesting time in college sports where you have people who want to play for five, six, sometimes seven years in college just so they can make money in name, image and likeness.
- [40:07]
Tom Keene
7.
- [40:08]
Scarlet Fu
I started off by talking about the World Cup. How has has the professionalization of youth sports contributed perhaps to the US not being as well prepared for something like the World Cup? Because that's the criticism, right?
- [40:19]
Randall Williams
I think that if you look at Europe and Europe has these youth camps that you think of Lionel Messi, he was with Barcelona at a very young age and then raised in that system against a lot of top tier competition that doesn't really exist here. Of course we have youth soccer clubs and camps, but it's not to the same level. You've never seen a 13 or 13 year old signed to NYC FC. It just doesn't happen the same way. And so because of that and because of the rising costs, you think of the travel, you think of the cleats, you think of tournaments, lodging and tournaments and all of these different fees. You have parents who are like, you know, I think I'm good. You can play a different sport, or you could just go and be an academic scholar.
- [40:57]
Tom Keene
Can anybody beat France?
- [40:59]
Randall Williams
I think they can. I think Spain can. I think England can. I think Argentina can, but. But it's going to take you on your best day, and you're going to have to shut down a bunch of different superstars. It's like playing against the Golden State warriors with Steph Curry and Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. They are that level. Good.
- [41:14]
Scarlet Fu
That was a good way to put it. Who are you rooting for?
- [41:16]
Randall Williams
I root for a good story. So, of course, it's either. I'd rather. I would like to see a rematch of the 2022 final, which was Argentina and France. That is probably the greatest sporting event that I've ever watched. So seeing that.
- [41:30]
Tom Keene
We're out of time.
- [41:31]
Scarlet Fu
We're out of time.
- [41:31]
Tom Keene
The control room never talks to me.
- [41:33]
Scarlet Fu
They only talk to you because they know I listen.
- [41:34]
Tom Keene
Luigi's vicious. I mean, you know, I have no. I want to ask, like, six more questions.
- [41:39]
Scarlet Fu
We'll get him back on.
- [41:39]
Tom Keene
We'll get them on next week.
- [41:41]
Scarlet Fu
All right, thanks so much. Randall Williams, our Bloomberg business of sports senior reporter,
- [41:49]
Tom Keene
Bloomberg Money. Where we do Shakespeare will do that right now. Where the sky meets the sea it calls me and no one knows how far it goes if the wind in my sail on the sea stays behind me One day I'll know if I go, there's just no telling how far.
- [42:06]
Scarlet Fu
This is not Shakespeare.
- [42:07]
Tom Keene
This is Moana.
- [42:08]
Scarlet Fu
Okay, there we go. The Shakespeare of 2026.
- [42:12]
Tom Keene
Truly.
- [42:13]
Scarlet Fu
And it's Friday, so, of course, we're looking ahead to the weekend and to next week. So for that, we bring in Bloomberg's this weekend's anchor, Lisa Mateo. Lisa.
- [42:21]
Lisa Mateo
All right.
- [42:22]
Scarlet Fu
Moana's Moana.
- [42:23]
Lisa Mateo
If you're going into the theaters this weekend, it's gonna be Moana. Tom knows, of course, why this is tops on my list, because, Scarlett, I don't know if you. I have a huge crush on Dwayne the Rock Johnson.
- [42:33]
Randall Williams
Oh, right.
- [42:33]
Lisa Mateo
That's the reason for it. But this is the remake, so the 2016 animated film, that's done phenomenal. So now they're doing the live action. So now you have the real actress. So you have Dwayne Johnson himself actually out there. So taking over the show. Sophie, it's up there.
- [42:49]
Tom Keene
Mike Dwayne is now part of the show.
- [42:52]
Lisa Mateo
My Dwayne is part of the show. The reviews haven't been so great, but that's out there and that's at the box office this weekend for music fanatics. Okay, for those. The Rolling Stones are back. They're 20.
- [43:03]
Tom Keene
I will listen this weekend.
- [43:05]
Lisa Mateo
They're making music, I'm telling you. The 25th studio album, Foreign Tongues. That's what it's called. So it's 14 tracks. There's 12 original, two covers and they're grouping up with different people, they're doing different collaborations. One is with Paul McCartney. The last album released in 2023.
- [43:22]
Katie Greifeld
So this is.
- [43:22]
Lisa Mateo
I know Tom's weekend is going to be spent.
- [43:25]
Tom Keene
I will put headphones on, I will listen. It will be with immense respect for Charlie Watts.
- [43:30]
Scarlet Fu
How much does an album cost these days? Now?
- [43:33]
Tom Keene
I don't know. I was just streaming on title is what I'm going to do. But the answer is how much did it cost cost to make this? It took them years to put this thing together.
- [43:40]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah.
- [43:41]
Tom Keene
This was not some rich guy 6 week project. This is. They really put a lot of effort.
- [43:46]
Scarlet Fu
They had to mend a lot of.
- [43:48]
Lisa Mateo
What else you got is still going. They're still going. So I want to go to eco data because we have a jam packed calendar coming up. So we start off on Tuesday we have cpi. Oh, yes, yes. And then on Wednesday we have ppi. So aside from that, then we go into the Thursday. Retail sales is a big number.
- [44:05]
Tom Keene
Sure.
- [44:06]
Lisa Mateo
And then Friday we have housing starts, building permits. When I was looking at the prior and then what the expectations are, the biggest kind of difference I saw was actually in housing starts. You know, the prior was a dip of about 15%. The forecast is for a rise of about 13%. So that was the difference there. And then I also want to point out this bank of America survey that talked about how much consumers are spending for June and they're spending. Spending more. This is looking at credit card data. This is also looking at prices are higher. Well, the reason why is because they're not. The prices aren't higher, but they're spending more because gas is cheaper. Right. So they have a little bit more income. And the World cup, of course, June. So they're starting to spend more.
- [44:47]
Tom Keene
Yeah. Are you doing like 10,000 steps a day now after Nathan's famous last week?
- [44:51]
Lisa Mateo
You did see.
- [44:52]
Tom Keene
Did you like, did you for the
- [44:54]
Scarlet Fu
4th of July you were out in Coney Island.
- [44:56]
Lisa Mateo
Coney island from Bloomberg this weekend? Yes. I had a tray, survived a tray of hot dogs. I did not any of them because they were in the boiling sun for so long. I was like, maybe I shouldn't eat these. But it was fun. It was a good experience. I'm a Brooklyn girl, so being back, you know, in Coney island in your hood, it was just nice. It was a good experience.
- [45:15]
Scarlet Fu
What do you have coming up this weekend on Bloomberg?
- [45:17]
Lisa Mateo
We're talking a lot because all the talk has been about SK Hynix. So we're tapping into the that as Ed Ludlow is going through the weekend, he's joining us as well. So that'll be a good time. On top of that, he's just killed it.
- [45:31]
Tom Keene
We make jokes about it, folks, at Ludlow's leadership here and all this technology. I'm looking literally right now at the space x 30 year bond. I got killed on it. Are you kidding me? It's gone. Price down, yield up. And it hasn't found a bid yet. It's ugly. That'll be a theme for Ed Ludlow on Bloomberg this weekend. Look for that with David and in all this week.
- [45:54]
Scarlet Fu
All right, Lisa Matteo, thank you so much. And of course, be sure to watch Bloomberg this weekend every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7am Eastern Time.
- [46:01]
Tom Keene
This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast bringing you a smart look. 3, 2. This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast bringing you a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life. I'm Tom Keene with Scarlet Fu. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV every Friday at noon, Wall street time. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.