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Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
John
We begin this hour with stocks little changed heading into this morning's data and a ton of bank earnings. Chris vernis bad strategic US writing the following With 99% of banks above the 200 day average, the group kicks off the 2Q earnings season on solid technical footing. Chris joins us now for more. Chris, good morning. Good to see you.
Chris Vernis
Great to be here, John.
John
Is that what your focus is on this morning? Because we've got cpi, we've got Fed share Wash. Is it earnings front and center?
Chris Vernis
Yeah, I think this is going to
start to take some of the attention away both from the central bank and from Iran here. And you know, our kind of main point here is when you look at kind of the setup of the bank stocks into earnings season, they are on very sound footing. Are they overbought in the near term? Yeah, they probably are. I don't particularly care because the underlying trends are so firm. These are still the relative leaders after
frankly what was a pretty funky, you
know, March, April period. The banks have really since about mid May, come back and reclaim the bar of leadership. And you see, see it not just domestically. It's true in Europe, it's true in Japan, even with JGB yields up, it's true in Japan that these global banks continue to act really, really well.
So I think it's difficult to get kind of too worked up about financial conditions here when financial stocks are still
in pretty good shape.
John
Well, let's talk about the US banks and the kind of exposure you want right now. So let's say on the far side you've got a pure plan capital markets and on this side is a pure play on Main Street. The closer you are to this side. As a general rule of thumb so far this year the best you've done in terms of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, those stocks have been flying. Where's the sweet spot now?
Chris Vernis
So that's not generally been true for about two years. You look at like when Morgan Stanley and Goldman broke out, it was probably back in late 24, early 25. So they've really carried the flag of leadership the entire time. I think what's maybe a little unappreciated though, particularly when you go down the cap scale, there are so many regional and small banks that are acting great here that are in good long term uptrends that have just finally broken out to new multi year highs.
So it's more than just the capital market stocks, which clearly there's been a
story there with the IPO boom. But it's when you start to migrate down the cap scale, you do get some exposure and some very good charts in these small and mid cap banks.
Lisa Abramowicz
Just to build on what John's talking about, it's almost Main street versus Wall Street. You've got Wells Fargo on one side of the extreme, they got Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on this side of the extreme. And it seems like we've seen the fees that potentially are coming from some of these IPOs, some of these issuances. Is it going to broaden out where we start to see through robust borrowing and lending from consumers and the broader
Chris Vernis
economy to the degree to extends to Consumers.
I'm unsure I would say this. When you look at the credit landscape and put aside the private credit names for a minute, we can talk about that. But public credit conditions are still extremely benign here. I mean double B spreads yesterday made new cycle tights. That's true here. It's true in Europe as well.
So I think again with bank stocks
generally still an uptrend across the world, credit conditions pretty benign. I think it's premature to get too worked up or too bearish here. Listen, I recognize where we are seasonally. You can get a correction here for any reason into August into September. We've seen that historically. But I think the underpinnings of this market are still in decent condition.
Lisa Abramowicz
One big anxiety right now markets is how long can this last, this incredible issuance boom, this incredible financing condition for anything related to AI and we've gotten the sense that maybe in the margins are starting to come back a little bit. Do you expect to get a sense of that, the sort of forward pipeline or just whether it's starting to close?
Chris Vernis
So Lisa, our kind of big view
this year is that there is some interest rate out there where bonds simply become more competitive to stocks. And I just don't think we have found that interest rate yet. So to answer your question, when does kind of the, the capital markets boom end? I think it's when we find a bond yield that is meaningfully higher than where yields are today. We learned a couple of weeks ago, I think the highs were 467 on tens. That's not the level. It's some level meaningfully higher. People forget. No, go back to 1999 when you're in that NASDAQ melt up. You know bond yields that year went from 4 to 7 in the US
so it typically takes a yield so
much higher than the consensus believes to truly be competitive.
So I think we're in this environment
where money is just sloshing around from
group to group to group, but it's
very reluctant to leave the asset class
Lisa Abramowicz
of Equity calling for 7%.
Chris Vernis
No, I'm just saying that it takes a yield much higher than what the
consensus believes is right in front of them. I don't think 461 this morning is that yield that ends this kind of 17 year bull market that we've been in.
Annmarie Horden
Is July 29th the first rate hike?
Chris Vernis
I think not. I don't think we get a rate hike in calendar year 2026. I'll give you three things to think about. Number one, I think is the one we all know, look at forward inflation expectations. They're relatively anchored by any metric, whether five or five or forwards or even just five year forwards.
John
Is that because the market's priced for hikes?
Chris Vernis
Well played. Listen, I think that the shift in
narrative this year has been so dramatic. We got to get back to center here a little bit. Let's think about some of the data. Number one, PMI right now is 53 and a half. That doesn't hike from there. Just look historically that's not where your majority of hikes come from. The 3 month average on payrolls right now is about 125k. If you look at a distribution of Fed action when the three month average of payrolls is in that 100, 150 range, the likelihood of a hike any point over the next six months is less than 20%. So whether it's the payroll data, whether the PMI data, I think the likelihood that we get this Fed in particular moving to hikes in 26 is low. Reserve the right to change that opinion should the facts on the ground change, as always. But that's kind of the job of what we do. I'd be betting no hike here.
Annmarie Horden
Even though Governor Waller yesterday made it very clear he's very concerned about inflation and also talked about he doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Chris Vernis
Wall is not the chair. And I think we all need to come to this realization. The chair is the chair. Let's get back to that mentality. The chair is the chair. I think think as we've seen with these task forces, we're going to get less and less communication from regional Fed presidents, Fed governors. So I'm more inclined to kind of discount what Waller said yesterday. I think at the end of the day the likelihood this Fed goes in 26 is still low. That's how we're positioned, that's how we're thinking about that.
John
It's interesting you don't think the center of power at the Federal Reserve has shifted somewhat? Because I've witnessed the committee vote down of a chair before. In that case it was the bank of England, governor of a QE coming out of the financial crisis isis. He wanted more. The committee voted against him a couple of times. I believe if my memory serves me well, the situation at the Fed, you don't think it shifted? Just give us the why.
Chris Vernis
I think at a minimum, these task
forces over the next six months do buy the new worst Fed time to
kind of get an understanding of the
new lay of the land.
I also think the data is just not there. At the end of the day, if this is a data sensitive fed, the
data is not there whether it's payrolls, whether it's manufacturing.
I also think when you look at, you know, 10 year yields, are they escape velocity here?
I would hardly say that.
John
Me too.
Chris Vernis
You can make a case. Hey, twos are, you know, for 25
this morning there are 50 bips above fed funds. That's probably the one signal that I would say maybe pushes back on my view here a little bit.
I wouldn't say it's as extreme as
what we saw in late 21, early 22.
I think by the time the Fed
got around to hiking in early 22,
the 2 year yield was something like
200 bips above where Fed funds were.
So we're not yet in that category. But you know, watch the two year yield here. That would probably be the one thing
that would start to shift my mind.
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us.
John
More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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John
Under Savannahs this morning, the case for hike in rates.
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If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. As always, we need to avoid making the mistake of fighting the last war and reacting too soon to tighten inflation.
John
So here's the latest this morning. Traders boosting bets the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this month. Investors are waiting for fresh inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Wash his testimony on Capitol Hill a little bit later this morning. The former New York Fed President Bill Dudley joins us now for more. Bill, what was your reaction to that? Welcome to the show, buddy. What was the reaction to that speech yesterday and what is the likelihood that this meeting this month is indeed life?
Bill Dudley
Well, I think it is live because inflation's been above the Fed's target for over five years and core inflation has stayed quite sticky over the last few months. Waller basically is providing the guidance to the market about how the Fed's likely to react if the inflation is bad that Kevin Warsh has been unwilling to provide. This is one of the problems that Kevin was, I think has. If he continues to be as silent as he has been about how the Fed is likely to react, his voice is just going to be replaced by other people that are going to provide more insight into terms of how the Fed is likely to react. I think there is a strong case for tightening monetary policy. I don't see much evidence that monetary policy is actually restrictive right now. Financial conditions are extremely accommodative and that's provided providing quite a strong impulse to the economy. And then you have the investment spending boom, which likely is likely to continue for a while longer. Both those things to me argue for the Fed to raise rates. The Fed isn't there yet. I don't think Kevin Wash is there yet. If you look at what he said in his public remarks, pretty optimistic about AI, you know, helping you on productivity, holding down inflation. But Waller, you know, is put a marker down and I think there's a lot of other people in the fifth and feel the same way.
John
Bill, do you think that's where we can find some common ground? There are some people that do think we are slightly restrictive. Many on the FOMC do not share that view. But can we find consensus around the following idea that we aren't sufficiently restrictive to get inflation back to target? Is that where we can find some consensus on the committee?
Bill Dudley
I don't think there's much evidence of that. We've been in this supposedly Restrictive setting for several years now and inflation hasn't come down in the economy and the unemployment rate hasn't gone up. So it seems to me that the evidence that monetary policies exerting restraint is really quite weak. In the current venue though, we've been
Lisa Abramowicz
just getting bank earnings and frankly it seems like all cylinders are firing as quickly as they possibly can. Record after record after record capital markets as well as Main street activity that seems to be reaccelerating by not hiking interest rates. Do you think that this Fed is allowing some sort of capital markets bubble, effervescence, whatever you want to call it, to build?
Bill Dudley
Well, William Machesney Martin used to say that the Fed's jobs that take away the punch bowl when the party just starts getting good. I would say the party is getting really good right now. So this is, you know, the flip side of financial conditions being very accommodative. And so I think that argues for the Fed raising rate, raising rates a little bit. You know, the CPI will get a good headline CPI this month, but that's not going to have as much weight now that the war in Iran has started back up and energy prices are having headed back up. So it's really what's happening to inflation beyond energy prices that's really going to matter. And I think that's what Waller flagged this this past week.
Lisa Abramowicz
There's a question about the idea of outsourcing some of the commentary to other Fed officials on the part of Kevin Warsh with Chris Waller really sucking up the oxygen in the room.
Tiffany Welding
Do you think that this is actually
Lisa Abramowicz
a desirable outcome or do you expect Governor Fred, President Fred, Chair Warsh to clip the wings say of a Chris Waller?
Bill Dudley
I don't think that the Fed chair has a lot of power to limit the ability of people to talk about their outlook for monetary policy. That's what Fed officials do, that's their job, is they conduct monetary policy. So I think the problem that Kevin was might have is that as people like Kevin, people like Chris Waller speak up and Warsh does not provide similar kind of, you know, guidance about what his monetary policy reaction function is. It basically makes him less important and makes people like Chris Waller more important in terms of guiding markets.
Annmarie Horden
So Bill, what does he say today, his first testimony as the Fed chair before Congress on the heels of not just what Governor Waller said, but also cpi. Does he just stick to the script of his task force and I'm not going to provide guidance?
Bill Dudley
I think it's going to be more of the same. I think he's not going to provide much guidance about where he's going for. I think where he's done himself a good job, done himself good service, is basically underscoring the fact that he's committed to the independence of the Fed. So compared to where he was when he was testifying before the Senate Banking Committee with for his confirmation, he's got a lot more distance from President Trump. And I think he's really reinforced the idea that he's not going to change the Fed's commitment to price stability.
Annmarie Horden
Bill, picking up your point about financial conditions. They're easy in some sectors, but do you expect Kevin Morse to double down, that they're restrictive when it comes to the housing market?
Bill Dudley
Well, I think the housing sector is the weakest part of the economy. But the question is, why is housing weak? Is it weak because interest rates are too high, or is it weak because we're not having any more immigration into the United States? And so the growth rate of the household formation has collapsed. And so with that, the demand for housing is much weaker than it was in the past. You know, when you're, when you're creating 2 million jobs a year, that created a lot of demand for housing, when you're not creating much in the way of job creation, the housing demand is going to be a lot weaker. And so I think, I don't think the housing sector is weak so much because rates are too high. I think it's weak because we're not seeing a lot of growth in the labor force.
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us.
John
More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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John
Tiffany Welding and Pimco joins us now for more. Tiffany, not more of that. We talk about the data. What's your reaction to CPI dropping just moments ago?
Tiffany Welding
Yeah, well, I thought you guys laid out a very key list of questions there that Chairman Marsh and the FOMC committee will have to, will have to answer over, over the coming months and quarters. You know, I think in addition to those questions that you laid out, you know, one of the key ones has been this year, what is really driving inflation? Is it a kind of a sequence of supply shocks and one time price level adjustments or are we genuinely seeing some resilient demand that is lifting inflation? And I lay out that question because, you know, it's really key to how monetary policymakers should react to what we're seeing. If it is indeed just a series of supply shocks, you know, then they can afford to be patient. But if it's not and it's underlying demand, you know, then that's when you really need to offset that with higher interest rates. And I think, you know, there's, there's certainly evidence that supply related factors are contributing here, but there's some ambiguousness as well. And I think Waller sort of laid out the case yesterday to basically say the longer that we get, you know, a continued sequence of, of elevated inflation prints, you know, the more the case builds that this is really demand, that's, that's, that's keeping inflation elevated as well, you know. So I think this, this data today will be a sigh of relief for Many FOMC members, as you guys suggested, it won't close the door to interest rate hikes in general, but it basically is now a nod in the direction that, you know, yes, we did get some one off tariff adjustments. Certainly energy prices are not back to the war related levels yet. And we're getting this sort of AI related price increases in tech components and stuff like that. So you know, I think this print does suggest that, you know, there's, there's reason to believe that that cools down in the, in the second half of the year, you know, but clearly the onus is on the data. It needs to cool down for them to hold, you know, and they, you know, I think Waller again really laid out the case that, that we could need some modest adjustments higher, you know, if inflation continues to rise.
John
It gives them the time, if they want it, the much needed time to have a longer conversation through the summer. Tiffany, it takes me to this quote from Kevin Walsh, the Fed chair prepared testimony and he says this. The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation and we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability. So Tiffany, we have seen persistently above target inflation and they have tolerated it for five years. When he says we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability, what's your best guess as to what he means and what they intend to do about it?
Tiffany Welding
Yeah, well, I mean, I think he's clearly saying that, you know, he wants to maintain a Federal Reserve that the markets view as credible, you know, because ultimately in the longer run if you have price stability, you know, that's good for the economy. He wants to manage inflation expectations. He wants to make sure that they're anchored because ultimately that, that keeps the, that that results in an easier job for the Federal Reserve if inflation expectations are anchored, you know, in order to, to get that price stability, you know. So he is clearly saying the right things here in terms of keeping those inflation expectations anchored. Yeah, but at some point, if inflation does turn out to be more of a demand driven phenomenon above target inflation, if you have several more years of that, you know, again the risk is that you have inflation expectations that are starting to drift higher and the Fed does have to react, you know, I think they are and I think Chairman Warsh is basically saying we're prepared to act if we need to, you know, but as of right now, at least with today's print, it does buy them a little bit more time to see a little bit more data and to maybe so clear up some of that ambiguity that we're seeing in terms of demand or supply related factors driving inflation,
Lisa Abramowicz
Tiffany, how long can job owning work without action? In other words, how long can they signal that they are to willing, willing to act without acting with inflation squarely above that 2% target?
Tiffany Welding
Yeah, well, I mean, I certainly think that, you know, at some point if the data is not, and if inflation is, is not going in their direction, you know, absolutely, they will, will need to act. But, but as of right now at least, you know, if you have a sequence of inflation prints that are, you know, that are, are giving you more evidence that inflation is headed back to target, you know, then I think again that kind of buys you a little bit more time. I mean we have had just an unfortunate set of sort of events with the, the increase in energy prices, of course, tariff related inflation, you know, inflation that was coming on the back of, of the pandemic, you know, which was both supply and demand related factors, you know, all of that has just kept inflation above target. We think the Federal Reserve has, has done a very good job, you know, at, certainly at bringing it back down, you know, and of course as we look forward, we expect them to continue to do that and work to moderate inflation.
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Podcast Summary
This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance centers on the critical intersection of bank earnings, U.S. and global financial conditions, and central bank policy—specifically the Federal Reserve's stance amid persistent inflation and robust capital markets. Featuring analysts and experts including Chris Vernis (Strategic US), Bill Dudley (former NY Fed President), and Tiffany Welding (PIMCO), the hosts delve into the outlook for rate hikes, the continuing strength of bank and capital market performance, and the nuanced drivers behind inflation as policymakers prepare for pivotal economic data and testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Solid Technical Foundation:
“These global banks continue to act really, really well.” — Chris Vernis [02:51]
Main Street vs. Wall Street:
Benign Credit Landscape:
Interest Rates vs. Equities:
“I don’t think 4.61% this morning is that yield that ends this kind of 17-year bull market that we’ve been in.” — Chris Vernis [06:18]
No Rate Hike Seen in 2026:
“The likelihood that we get this Fed in particular moving to hikes in ‘26 is low.” — Chris Vernis [06:57]
Fed’s “Center of Power” Not Shifted:
“The chair is the chair. Let’s get back to that mentality.” — Chris Vernis [07:56]
FOMC Dynamics & Inflated Expectations:
“We’ve been in this supposedly restrictive setting for several years now and inflation hasn’t come down … the evidence that monetary policy’s exerting restraint is really quite weak.” — Bill Dudley [13:44]
Risks of a Capital Markets Bubble:
“William McChesney Martin used to say that the Fed’s job is to take away the punch bowl when the party just starts getting good. I would say the party is getting really good right now.” — Bill Dudley [14:22]
Fed Chair’s Strategy and Independence:
What’s Driving Inflation?
Fed’s Credibility & Forward Guidance:
“He’s clearly saying the right things in terms of keeping those inflation expectations anchored. But ... if inflation does turn out to be more of a demand-driven phenomenon...the Fed does have to react.” — Tiffany Welding [22:30]
The Limits of “Jawboning”:
“These global banks continue to act really, really well.”
— Chris Vernis [02:51]
“I think it’s premature to get too worked up or too bearish here ... the underpinnings of this market are still in decent condition.”
— Chris Vernis [04:45]
“I just don’t think we have found that interest rate yet...It typically takes a yield so much higher than the consensus believes to truly be competitive.”
— Chris Vernis [05:23]
“I don’t think the housing sector is weak so much because rates are too high. I think it’s weak because we’re not seeing a lot of growth in the labor force.”
— Bill Dudley [16:45]
“He’s clearly saying the right things in terms of keeping those inflation expectations anchored. But ... if inflation does turn out to be more of a demand-driven phenomenon...the Fed does have to react.”
— Tiffany Welding [22:30]
“William McChesney Martin used to say that the Fed’s job is to take away the punch bowl when the party just starts getting good. I would say the party is getting really good right now.”
— Bill Dudley [14:22]
| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |---------|-------|-----------| | Opening Bank Stock & Market Review | Chris Vernis on technicals, leadership | 02:06–04:05 | | Main Street vs. Wall Street | Regional/small banks’ momentum | 04:05–04:45 | | Credit Conditions & Rates | Benign conditions, rate risk | 04:45–06:18 | | Fed Hike Odds for 2026 | Economic data, odds of hikes | 06:26–07:56 | | Fed Power & Communication | Warsh vs. Waller dynamics | 07:56–09:33 | | Bill Dudley on Restrictiveness | Accommodative financial conditions | 12:12–14:00 | | Is Fed Fueling a Bubble? | “Punch bowl” analogy | 14:22–15:01 | | Warsh’s Testimony & Fed Independence | Fed chair’s messaging | 16:07–16:45 | | Inflation: Supply vs. Demand | Tiffany Welding’s analysis | 19:54–23:45 |
This episode offers a robust assessment of both market and policy dynamics as the financial world eyes new inflation readings and potential Fed moves. With bank stocks healthy, credit conditions supportive, and inflation still hovering above target, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balance between credibility and patience. Analysts urge close monitoring of bond yields, labor market signals, and the evolving inflation narrative—all with the shadow of a possible rate hike looming but not, for now, imminent.