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Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks extending tech led declines. Aaron Kenneth of Clear Harbor Asset Management writing, leadership is steadily expanding beyond semiconductor manufacturers towards the broader ecosystem. Aaron joins us now for more. Aaron, we've got to talk about the latest out of China, Moonshot's new Kimmy K3 model. Maybe a lot of people aren't familiar with what's coming out of China. They're telling us as they might, that this can rival the models coming out of Anthropic and OpenAI. And do you see this as another deep sea type moment or is this different?
Aaron Kenneth, Clear Harbor Asset Management
Shore feels that way Jonathan, you know clearly it's a question around, you know, how Competitive is this Kimme3 model relative to the closed source models that we have here in the United States made by Anthropic OpenAI, Grok and others. It also questions, you know, how much capex have we spent this year across the hyperscalers? What will be spent next year? Could we see the slope change as perhaps the return on invested capital question comes into the fore? I mean, the other question that I think is worth pondering too is Kimmy's made a model that's competitive with, with US models and they do not have the leading chips that are designed here in the United States by the likes of Nvidia, like the Blackwell chip or the Rubin chip. And so that would suggest that perhaps they're creating more output, more intelligence per unit of compute power with perhaps an inferior chip and that that could be very disruptive to the semiconductor ecosystem. I'm just postulating here that, that, that there's a risk to that.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
I would just say, Aaron, in response, we've got no idea, I've personally got no idea how compliant they have been with export controls, but certainly raises questions about the kind of access they do have, the kind of developments there making right now with the chips they have locally, domestically. That raises a lot of concerns. And here's one, you mentioned it. Are we getting to a position where it's harder and harder to justify the amount of money that the hyperscalers here in America have been spending and start to question the wealth transfer we've seen from them to the chip players over the last 12 months? Is that trade becoming more and more vulnerable?
Aaron Kenneth, Clear Harbor Asset Management
Yeah, I think it feeds into a broader question around are we going to see some sort of level of regulation within the air ecosystem both in the United States and perhaps globally? And there's been a discussion about that this week in the marketplace as well. And how does open source versus closed sort of function under that regime? I would just say as a return, as it relates to the return on invested capital question that you just posed. It's a real, it's a real question. But you know, the likes of Alphabet, OpenAI, Grok and others, they are playing the long game. And so I suspect that they're not huddling up this morning altering their capex estimates for the coming months.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
When it comes to technology space, we also have Google potentially behind on their Gemini model. You have Space X overnight. What do you think the next catalyst is going to be?
Aaron Kenneth, Clear Harbor Asset Management
Well, Anne Marie, it's been a stunning week for mid July we have geopolitics, the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation that you just reported on. We earnings which have been coming out fast and furious. Bank earnings have been very strong. A little mixed on the other side but 20 plus percent annualized growth rate in the second quarter. These are the types of growth rates we tend to see coming out of a deep recession. So it's not, it's all, it's not all glass half empty for, for sure. And of course we have Fed Wash in play with the Fed and it's been quite a, quite a week.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
So do you think this isn't even so much chip specific when it comes to the sell off but other factors like what's going on in the conflict in the Middle East?
Aaron Kenneth, Clear Harbor Asset Management
Yeah, I think it's a healthy breather. The semiconductor trade has been a volatile one. The equity trade through just a week or so ago is heavily momentum driven. The momentum factors come off. Kimmy just was released yesterday and so we're seeing increased volatility again this morning. I want to be a little careful that the narrative of the last 12 hours around Kimmy, it is akin to sort of the deep deep sea moment but, but I think it does raise some very important questions about how the AI build out, how that ecosystem evolves. What are the efficiencies that are going to be brought perhaps by the open source models from China and how does that impact the demand for things like memory which is, is all of the rage right now with the likes of SK Hynix just having come with their ADR and of course Micron and Sandisk and others in that space. And so it'll be interesting to see how this all evolves.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
If you strip down the muscle of big tech just looking at the index, go to the equal weight and we close at an all time high. Just yesterday the banks, not just the big ones, some of the regional players as well, citizens, fifth, third PNC take a pick close to records just yesterday and we saw the big players on Wall street deliver record highs as well. I just wonder from your perspective if we do have this fragile moment in tech, how isolated it will be and whether it will really start to unravel the other part of the market as well that's doing quite well and holding up in the meantime.
Aaron Kenneth, Clear Harbor Asset Management
That's right. I mean yesterday the, the, the equal weight I believe was, is actually positive and market cap weight was, was negative. We have now the equal weight up about 250 basis points year to date in excess of the S and P market Cap weighted index. And so you know, you look at all the sectors, all the 12 sectors, I think only one is down year to date. And so it suggests that there is a broadening but we have to be a little care too much the relationship of the sectors within the ecosystem across industrials, technology within technology, semiconductors. As semis go up it seems like software goes down. That's been an inverse trade year to date. And of course banks, they're seeing increased activity on trading but they're also seeing increased activity as it pertains to the build out in M and A. And so we have to keep a close watch on the correlation across sectors. But you know growth looks strong. I think 5% nominal is possible this year. Inflation is, is, is, is decelerating on the core side of things and that, that'll be a focus for the next several months.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
To your point Aaron, it all feels like one trade and that's the problem. Can you help us navigate that? This note just dropped from Jonathan Krinski of bcg. He sits in a different seat. He focuses on the technicals. He said there's a risk of a high correlation accident and that the risk continues to grow. Do you think it's avoidable?
Aaron Kenneth, Clear Harbor Asset Management
I think it's avoidable if you, if you don't just own the market. Right? If you own the market that then you have 20% in the semiconductors in the United States you have 25% in M. And so if you own semis you also are related to, correlated to all the other aspects that we just discussed. So as an, as an asset allocator, even within equities I think there are other places to move. The banking sector looks strong. It's not just the semi trade. Obviously there's a lot of M and A regulatory environments positive for the banking sector. Trading activities up, wealth activities up. We know that's related to a wham. And so you know, we think that there are opportunities across the landscape but there's a lot of correlation going on even down to utilities as we know as it pertains to this trade.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
So it felt like one trade. Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
The US Enforcing its renewed naval blockade against Iranian shipping. According to Central Command, forces have redirected three merchant ships, boarded a vessel for verification purposes, and disabled a tanker that failed to comply with instructions. Let's build on that. Stick with the war, the US And Iran exchanging strikes for a sixth consecutive
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Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
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Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Crude prices remaining elevated, heading for its biggest weekly gain since April. Jeff Curry of Altis Partners writing Bottlenecks in the energy system are growing and widening. The entire energy complex remains underinvested, making the system extremely vulnerable to shocks like these. Jeff joins us now for more. Jeff, good to see you, buddy. Let's get into it. There's two words that stuck out for me in your recent work, and that's abundance. Illusion. Can you just sort of flesh that out for us and why that's so important? Perhaps more so at this specific moment?
Jeff Curry, Altis Partners
Well, I think when we look at round one of what occurred in the Middle east, the immediate response was the US to use strategic reserves. And we saw it in Japan, Europe and elsewhere around the world, and they used it aggressively. China was flexing its system between the two of these. It created the illusion of abundance. But products are telling you we don't have an abundance out there. You know, I like to point out, you know, crude oil prices are the noise. Product prices are the signal. The crack spreads this morning are $70 a barrel. That means the spread between oil and products is nearly the same price of crude oil. I've never seen it that high in my entire career of over three decades. That's telling you this is no longer a question of deficit, this is now a question of shortage. And people are asking, where do you hide with what's going on in tech? Where you hide is commodities. They are the best performing asset class year to date, up 34%. Petroleum index alone is up 81% in the upside is just that much greater between now and the end of the year, given the shortages that we're seeing across the energy complex. And if you put what occurred, you know, round one, we got rid of the insurance policies, the cushions. This time around, we're starting from record low. Inventories. We have the Red Sea in play. We have the Straits of Hormones in play. We have the Black Sea in play. We have refineries in Russia. All out, the list goes on. In fact, I'd argue in my entire career, I have never seen in an energy environment this tight, yet the world still focuses on tech that I think is poised for a big correction. And you have the best performing asset class out there being ignored.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
Jeff, what we don't have in play though, is China buying as normal. They're down some 40% in terms of their imports from the start of the war. When do you think China is going to step in again and what does that mean for the price?
Jeff Curry, Altis Partners
Well, we already see that the teapots are likely coming back because they margins the margins $70 a barrel. And what do those teapots do? They export to the global market. The profits are too big to ignore. And when we think about, you know, the refinery outages in Russia, we just put it in perspective. It's really nearly 3 million barrels per day. That's almost half of the refining capacity taking out. You lost refining capacity in Venezuela because of the earthquakes. You've lost another 3 million barrels per day. That sits behind the Straits of Hormuz. The Profit incentive to refine oil into products right now has never been higher. And when we look at a lot of that oil that was I like to call the reason why oil went down. When the Straits of Hormuz open with the Memorandum of understanding, it was like a pimple popping. It burst out into the system, put downward pressure on oil. A lot of that oil sitting off the coast of China right now and likely going to. Yes, the big state owned enterprises are slow to respond, but the other ones are a function of the underlying profits.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
Jeff, why didn't we see the nightmare scenario? Given everything you're talking about, why haven't we seen $150 oil? Why is it still elevated but it's comfortably at $85 oil?
Jeff Curry, Altis Partners
Oil is a transfer price. It's noise, it's meaningless. We talk about it because usually the spread between the products, gas and oil stays relatively constant. We're dealing with this is unlike anything we've seen before. We've lost the oil, we've lost the refineries. The energy system is severely supply constrained. Product prices are telling you an entirely different story. Whether it's prices in New York harbor, you know, diesel prices, 140, $150 of a fact right now, the product spread, that's all the products together versus the oil. This morning it was $70 a barrel versus where? 85. So 85 plus 70. What that gets you to 155. So you're already there. We have a very serious problem and the consumer doesn't care about the price of oil. I don't know any consumer out there who consumes oil. They consume diesel, they consume gasoline. We have very serious issues. I'm going to go back to the point. The investment returns of owning the energy of petroleum complex this year, forget oil is up 81% right now, already year to date. Because we have a problem. Everybody's focused on crude oil. But I like to point out nobody that's focused on crude oil consumes crude oil. Only a refinery consumes crude oil. So think about products. It's a much more dire situation.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
So Jeff, let's talk about what's in our future. Gasoline prices right now stateside around $4. It's not great, but it's not crisis. What do you think that's going to look like deeper into summer?
Jeff Curry, Altis Partners
It's going to go up. Where are you going to get the supply? And it's going to go up on a global basis because again we're thinking about, take Russia, just for those who don't know what happened? Ukraine in the last several months is doing drone strikes, precision drone sites, going 13, 1500 kilometers into Russia, taking out Central, you know, the CDU crude distillation unit taking out with precision strikes. Some of this stuff is going to take, you know, years to rebuild. And when you think about what Russia is doing right now, they're supposed to be long energy. They're importing gasoline and diesel from India, jet fuel from Japan, which underscores the severity of their situation. They used to export, export 10% of the world's diesel market. And then to make sure they can't get the crude out, the Ukrainians are bombing the ships that would come out of the export terminals. And so we're all sitting there focused on, you know, what's going on in the Straits of Hormuz, whether or not these ships. There's no products coming out. There's only, you know, crude oil coming out at this point. That's very de minimis. We also have the Red Sea at risk and we have serious disruptions that are occurring in Russia. So again, my point being here, I think is you started to hear the bottlenecks are shifting, but the trend is the same. And so you asked me what the risks are. They probably have rarely ever been this high. Right now.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
There's one variable we haven't discussed, Jeff, and it's an important one. Amri and I were talking about this earlier on this morning, that the price of crude, and we'll start with crude and we can get to product in a moment, wouldn't be at 85 without China. It would be closer to 100. The change in China is important here, Jeff. They're not importing like they were. They stockpiled a lot over the last 12 months. They're not processing and refining crude like they were either. What kind of assumptions are you making on what Chinese strategies around crude and crude product is going to look like in the next 12 months?
Jeff Curry, Altis Partners
They can't continue on like this forever. And by the way, everybody wants to blame this on, on China. China was part of it. But again, let's remember they also exported the product, so they reduced. So let's say they've taken somewhere, if you do it against what would be a normalized level. And by the way, the rebound, if you look at the shipping data in the last three to four weeks, suggests there was a substantial rebound there, particularly with the tea kettles. Now, the issue there is China was exporting a lot of transportation fuels, so they have tightened that global transportation fuel at the market. The exact same time that we've seen the Russian things. So they're part of the them. They're not the solution. So they've helped out in crude. Again, I may go Crude oil is the noise. Products are the signal. And so when we think about their incentive to come back, the profit margins are just simply too large for any entity out there that has spare refining capacity is nearly the price of crude. So again, yeah, the crude price is off, but the distillate in the gasoline and those product prices are not off. Hence why when you look at the pump prices, they really haven't come down that much. In fact, when you look at the pump prices, the marketing margin, the refinery margins have never been this high. So the question is, will China respond to the economic incentive of record margins? The tea kettles are the ones that have that incentive.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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Martha Stewart
When Kohler, the global design leader in luxurious kitchen and bath products, came to me and said, Martha, we need an ambassador for our timeless, elegant, durable cast iron products. I said, I'm in. Now let me see the factory. Weeks later, I was suited up in coveralls and work boots, walking through their Kohler Wisconsin cast iron foundry. I stood next to the molten iron furnace, saw the hand applying enamel and touched the gorgeous finished products waiting to be sent out into the world. Since 1883, Kohler cast iron products have been forged and finished by the incredible craftspeople right in Kohler, Wisconsin. I'll tell you, I gained a newfound respect and appreciation for Kohler's cast iron craftsmanship. So now I'm lending my discerning stamp of approval to my most beloved Kohler Cast Iron products for their durability, beauty and timelessness. Shop my Kohler Cast Iron favorites curated on Kohler.com bring the warmth, character and enduring style of these timeless products into your kitchens and bathrooms. As the Kohler Cast Iron ambassador, I say long live Cast iron.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
The global sell off in chip makers accelerating with a new model in China sparking fears of another deep seat moment Dan Ives in a brand new role as partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives writes Tech Stocks a laser focused on seeing the monetization trend for AI in the sector quarter. Hyperscalers will be the standouts and remain foundational to the broader tech spending trends. Dan joins us now for more than Good morning.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
Great to be firm.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Let's start there for the benefit of our audience. New position. What kind of seat are you speaking from?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
Yeah so in partner and really be you know on a research perspective that's going to be my main role. Yorkville Ives but it's a modern merchant bank. I mean this is something for me 25 plus years on Wall street. It's the evolution, it's the next step. It's something to really build something that I think is going to be special in this market but really focused in terms of sectors AI, tech, infrastructure, energy. Because where I view the fourth industrial revolution so excited do this and found just the best partners to do.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
These companies are borrowing a lot of money. They're spending a lot of money. The questions were asking this morning based on developments out of China is whether they're borrowing too much and spending too much too much. What's your reaction to what we've heard from China?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
I think this is just called a white knuckle moment. No different than a mini deep seek moment to some extent. The reality is like look models you're going to have 10x more models over the next 5, 7 years vertical geographic. The reality is is that it's anthropic and open air world and everyone else paying rent relative to to the models. Gemini clearly narrowing the gap. China you're going to continue to see very good models come out of there. But it's my view when you talk about broader spending, the trillions of dollars spend that you see in AI, it's less about the models, it's about the data, it's about ultimately the build out and I think that is something that will get validated to Q earnings.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
But doesn't this show that China is not that behind the United States they're neck and neck when it comes to AI development?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
I think for the first time in 30 years. It's not even a question that US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. Now when it comes to models in terms of the more of a commoditization open source in the way that they're going after it, are they ahead when it comes to robotics, when it comes to energy? Yeah. But there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution. Godfather Bay Jensen, Avid idea and I think what you see from hyperscalers, we see from OpenAI and Anthropic. This is going to be an arms race. But I don't even think there's a question where the US is relative to China. When these moments happen, you'll see jitters, white knuckles, stocks will sell off.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
Why is China able to do it cheaper?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
Because at the end of the day the open source model, if you look whether deep sea or any others, when you compare it toward anthropic anti into what open air is doing, that's tip of the sphere. In other words, open AI and anthropic, they're going after the enterprise market. The models are just really the start of what the broader sort of end to end framework is going to be. When you think about where the vast majority of spending is going to be in AI is not necessarily in the models, it's in the data. The data center build outs, the CapEx, the what ultimately is going to be physical. I, I just continue to view commoditization will continue to happen on the models. I don't get as sort of, you know, nervous when moments like this spending phase.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Can we talk about the end phase? And I know this is really difficult to do. Where do you think the money's ultimately going to be made? The application layer, the infrastructure layer. What do you think the money will be made?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
I think it's, it's the application infrastructure layer that's going to really be the hearts and lungs. Because if you think about today, all the data centers getting built, those data centers again, it'll be like a factory for cars. You build out the factory but now you actually need the lines. What's the operation? The when you look at as more and more companies on the use cases, that's enterprise, that's software, that's use case.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Confident the app layer won't become commoditized.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
I would tell you the more and more companies, companies that I talk to that are deploying AI and going down the AI path, I feel that that's become less and less of a risk. There'll be winners and Losers. There'll be ones where ultimately they're on the wrong side of it. And maybe some of those stocks are reflecting some of the nervousness. But the view today is that, look, we're still in the third inning of the AI revolution. Now we start off, we're in the second inning. This is not seventh, eighth inning. Because of where this is all going in terms of physically, look what Apple's doing. That's just starting the consumer AI revolution, where they're essentially a toll booth in the air highway.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
What's going on with Alphabet and Gemini? Why are they behind?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
I view that in terms of everything that they're doing, they'll be behind the points. But the reality is that their end to end framework, from cloud to Gemini to what's happened on search, they could catch up pretty quickly. And I just think they've narrowed the gap much more than anyone would have thought. And it goes back to a year ago. New York City cab drivers bearish now. But look where they are today.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
And maybe where are they today?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
I say New York City cab drivers still bearish. Maybe they're bearish on Microsoft versus where.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
I think you've got to come with a new phrase. Because in my experience with my New York City cab drivers, they're better on this market than most people I speak to on a daily basis.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
And that's very healthy because of ultimately, more and more, they've been long and strong. They have a big seat at the table. And I know New York City cab drivers now they're driving Bentleys because of this market.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Right. They'll be sent. I remember years ago, they'd be like, I really like Tesla. I'd be like, what this multiple. That's crazy. And then Tesla just like to the moon, up and to the right.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
And that's why a lot of them are driving Bentleys.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Yeah.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
Or Cybertrucks.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
Or Cybertrucks.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Many of them don't know where they're going anymore, which is its own problem. It's that they hand you the phone now.
Bloomberg Host Lisa Abramowicz
I had to address things even worse. A taxi driver took my phone and said, do you mind if I keep it up here? And I just thought he needed it for five minutes. I was like, I need it back. I have calls coming in. He's like, I need it for the whole ride.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
And then there's times you're like, why are you taking the Holland Tunnel?
Jeff Curry, Altis Partners
You should be taking a look.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
And then you have to actually start to.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
I know where they go. It's.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
Look, it's an issue.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
I know. Dan, it's good to see you.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
Great.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Thank you sir. No dress code at Yorkville.
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
We're going to be dressed in more and more color at Yorkville. Ads.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
Do they know that?
Dan Ives, Yorkville Partner and Senior Managing Director
They do know that and I think this is a process for some of them.
Bloomberg Host Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
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Podcast Summary
This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance is centered on rapidly evolving developments in global markets, with a focus on the tumult in the tech and energy sectors. Major themes include the AI chip race between the US and China, the implications of China’s new AI model (Kimmy K3), potential vulnerabilities in the semiconductor trade, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting energy markets, and the broader question of market correlations and risk. The hosts and expert guests provide keen insight into how these factors are influencing investor sentiment, company strategies, and expectations for the remainder of the year.
"Kimmy's made a model that's competitive with US models and they do not have the leading chips designed here in the United States by the likes of Nvidia... That could be very disruptive to the semiconductor ecosystem."
— Aaron Kenneth (02:36)
"Is that trade becoming more and more vulnerable?"
— Jonathan Ferro (03:43)
"It's a healthy breather. The semiconductor trade has been a volatile one... Kimmy just was released yesterday and so we're seeing increased volatility again this morning."
— Aaron Kenneth (05:58)
"It all feels like one trade and that's the problem. Can you help us navigate that?"
— Jonathan Ferro (08:40)
"Crude oil prices are the noise. Product prices are the signal... The spread between oil and products is nearly the same price of crude oil. I've never seen it that high in my entire career."
— Jeff Curry (13:25)
"Everybody's focused on crude oil. But I like to point out nobody that's focused on crude oil consumes crude oil. Only a refinery consumes crude oil. So think about products. It's a much more dire situation."
— Jeff Curry (16:40)
"It's anthropic and OpenAI world and everyone else paying rent... [AI is] less about the models, it's about the data, it's about ultimately the buildout."
— Dan Ives (25:31)
"We're still in the third inning of the AI revolution... this is not seventh, eighth inning."
— Dan Ives (28:26)
| Timestamp | Speaker & Quote | |-----------|----------------| | 02:36 | Aaron Kenneth: "Kimmy's made a model that's competitive with US models and they do not have the leading chips... That could be very disruptive to the semiconductor ecosystem." | | 05:58 | Aaron Kenneth: "It's a healthy breather. The semiconductor trade has been a volatile one..." | | 08:40 | Jonathan Ferro: "It all feels like one trade and that's the problem. Can you help us navigate that?" | | 13:25 | Jeff Curry: "Crude oil prices are the noise. Product prices are the signal... The spread between oil and products is nearly the same price of crude oil. I've never seen it that high in my entire career." | | 16:40 | Jeff Curry: "Everybody's focused on crude oil. But I like to point out nobody that's focused on crude oil consumes crude oil. Only a refinery consumes crude oil. So think about products. It's a much more dire situation." | | 25:31 | Dan Ives: "It's anthropic and OpenAI world and everyone else paying rent... it's less about the models, it's about the data, it's about ultimately the buildout." | | 28:26 | Dan Ives: "We're still in the third inning of the AI revolution... this is not seventh, eighth inning." | | 29:39 | Jonathan Ferro: "I think you've got to come with a new phrase. Because in my experience with my New York City cab drivers, they're better on this market than most people I speak to on a daily basis." |
| Segment | Timestamps | |---|---| | Introduction of Tech Selloff & China’s AI Model | 01:41–05:14 | | Market Correlations, Tech vs. Banks | 07:00–09:44 | | Energy Market Analysis with Jeff Curry | 12:23–21:43 | | Global AI Race, Application, and Infrastructure with Dan Ives | 24:19–30:41 |
Bloomberg Surveillance delivers essential market intelligence, uncovers underlying shifts in sectors, and provides expert perspectives for investors and market watchers as global competition intensifies across both technology and energy.