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- [00:01]
IBM Representative
The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.
- [00:29]
Public.com Representative
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- [01:29]
Chase Representative
own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business is a pay in full card that elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits that will take your business to the next level. Sapphire Reserve for business offers 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, airport lounge access, and more. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business it's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more@chase.com ReserveBusiness Chase for Business make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA member FDIC
- [02:14]
Victoria Fernandez
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [02:24]
Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.
- [02:48]
Host/Interviewer
We begin this out with stocks pulling Back to kick off the second half of the year. Victoria Fernandez across Mark Global Investments writing rotation is the name of the game. Following an unwind of momentum and data, you can see weaker markets for the next month. Victoria joins us now for more. Victoria, welcome. Just elaborate a little bit more if you can. Why are you expecting to see weakness?
- [03:08]
Victoria Fernandez
Yeah, well I think Jonathan, when you typically have this unwind of momentum of beta in the markets you do have, markets tend to go a little bit weaker for the next 30, 45 days. Doesn't mean you have a huge pullback but you do have a little bit of a consolidation and I think we're seeing it within parts of the market. Maybe we don't see it within the entire market but there are certain, certain sectors and you guys have been talking about them where we've been seeing some of this come down and you're also seeing within the sectors, not everything is responding the same. So look, semis, you look at semis, Russell 3000 semi industry group, you only have about 15% of those names above their 20 day highs. So you had this big peak, you had this bubble kind of formation going on here and now you're seeing the trends start to come down and that's some of the weakening that we expect to see in the market and maybe we'll see it in other areas but that's an example where you're seeing it and then you're seeing that rotation into areas where sectors where they're actually having expanding 20 day highs, health care, financials, industrials, that's where the money is going and that tells us since money is not coming out of the market, it's staying in and just rotating. We should have a bull market longer term but a little bit of volatility and some weakness here in the near term.
- [04:24]
Host/Interviewer
Victoria, that pick up you're seeing elsewhere in other sectors, is it just the flavor of the same trade?
- [04:30]
Victoria Fernandez
It's not the same flavor but I guess maybe it's kind of the same meal that you're eating here. In terms of looking for those trends in the market, where are you seeing them? Ok, you started to see trends come off in momentum and beta like we talked about. Where are you seeing the uptrends? Those are the sectors where people want to go. You have pullbacks in uptrends, those are the technicals people are looking for and those are the sectors where you're seeing it, those kind of beaten down sectors from before. So similar in terms of you're looking at technical, technical components to find where to put money to work, but not that you're going into any kind of bubble formation. You're finding those oversold uptrends. That's your entry point.
- [05:10]
Lisa Abramowicz
I keep wondering, Victoria, when are we going to run out of money? Because it feels like either there has to be some sort of fiscal stimulus that's coming, that's getting pumped into markets, or at some point you have to imagine that every company that says I need another $20 billion is going to get a little bit more pushback, or that semiconductors saying I need an 85% profit margin is going to get a little bit of pushback. I mean, at what point do some of these bills start adding up and becoming cost prohibitive?
- [05:37]
Victoria Fernandez
Lisa this is where I think the market is actually underestimating some of the elements, some of the warning signs here in the economy. We had a lot of liquidity come into the market in the fourth quarter of last year and beginning of this year. And that liquidity is starting to come out. And obviously if we have changes in the balance sheet, you guys were talking about that earlier, that's going to affect liquidity as well. You're having the runoff of the benefits from the tax bill. You're having savings that have already been pulled down down by consumers. So where is the money coming from is a good question. But you flip that coin over. We had over 300 billion in new issuance and investment grade in the fixed income markets in the first quarter. June alone had almost 200 billion come in. So we're getting close to 17 and a half trillion. And there is no lack of desire for people going in and demand in these markets, even when you're getting balance sheets that maybe aren't that strong. Right. Free cash flows don't look great. It doesn't matter. They get investment grade ratings, people go in and they buy it up. So money is coming in. Maybe it's the rotation out of the tech component, maybe it's some money sitting on the sides, maybe it's money coming out of Bitcoin or some of those other areas of the market, but the demand is there.
- [06:49]
Lisa Abramowicz
At what point will all this money sloshing around the system feed its way into more persistent inflation? Even putting aside some of the disinflationary impulse from oil prices of late?
- [07:01]
Victoria Fernandez
This is the key point, I think, that the Fed is watching. Look, before we had the war start earlier in the year, inflation was already getting sticky and people were trying to look and see how much is actually flowing down into the core components of what we're having core goods and core services. That was already happening and I think that's the reason the Fed is looking and maybe having still the more hawkish view. Yes, gas prices can come down, but what about the rest of that? Look at core in CPI, in PPI, over 5% PC and okay, say you want to look at super core, right? That was the, the name of the game for such a long time. For the Fed, it's super core. Well, that's up to 3,9% and on a three month average you're actually moving up on an annual basis close to 5% there. So I think there's a lot of concern of what's flowing down into the core components of our, of our economy. That's what the Fed's going to be watching and that's why they're remaining on hold and having that hawkish tilt that the market seems to be ignoring right now.
- [08:01]
Emory
Victoria, what do you expect to hear from Kevin Walsh today for you? Is this potentially a catalyst for market movement moves?
- [08:08]
Victoria Fernandez
I'm not sure, Emory, that it's going to be a catalyst. I think everyone's going to be listening because we didn't get much right from the FOMC press conference or from the statement itself. So maybe they're going to be listening to see if he gives us little nuggets of information. I feel like he's going to be very prepared and have very kind of answers that are going to fit what he already spoke about at the fomc. So I don't see him coming out and giving us a lot of new information. I think he'll be reiterating, but perhaps we get a little more information on the task force resources, what those look like, what we're going to see in balance sheet because look, inflation is driven by money supply, right? And when we've got a balance sheet that's affecting money supply, it's affecting what M2 growth looks like. It's affecting what overnight lending rates look like. All of that feeds in. Maybe we get a little bit of information there to help us see where rates go ahead.
- [09:01]
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us.
- [09:02]
Host/Interviewer
More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
- [09:09]
IBM Representative
The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business IBM support for
- [09:39]
Public.com Representative
the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash Putting on a hedge on Public you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
- [10:49]
Venture Global Representative
never bet against American Grit or American Energy through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
- [11:23]
Host/Interviewer
Let's talk about chips. What a run. We found soaring demand for equipment and memory driving chip stocks to their best quarter on record. Angelo Zeno of CFR with this to say we remain positive about the overall outlook for chip and chip equipment providers as we believe the first half of the year witnessed a structural reset higher for datacenter spending. Angela joins us now for more. Angela, welcome to the program. Do you see any deceleration in that spending on the horizon?
- [11:49]
John
I mean, John, I would say in terms of deceleration, we'd expect to see some deceleration just because the numbers are going to get so large. Right. But as we kind of look here in the first half of the year, I'd say it's been far from a deceleration. It's been an acceleration in the spending levels. I'd say as we kind of go into the second half, more so into 2027, yeah, there's going to be some deceleration. But I think what's more important is the trajectory continues to be positive and as a result of that, you'll continue to see the Earnings growth across the space.
- [12:20]
Lisa Abramowicz
I was looking this morning at the job cut announcements among big tech after the reporting on Microsoft cutting some additional staff. Oracle 20,000, 21,000 job cuts matter more than 8,000 job cuts block more than 4,000 job cuts. All of this in part to help offset the expense for all of the capex. How far are we into this sort of capex over labor transition?
- [12:43]
John
Well, if we're talking just that, you know, it's interesting if we're talking about just the, the cloud providers, you know, you know, clearly I'd say there's only so much you can kind of, you know, take out of those companies and we've taken out a good amount of, kind of the OPEX costs or kind of the low hanging fruit. So I'd say there's probably not much left. I mean you'll probably continue to see ongoing cuts from some of those cloud providers just on an as needed basis and through ongoing efficiencies. I'd say outside of, you know, if we're talking more across the enterprise space, that's probably early innings and that's where, you know, over the next couple of years we'd expect to see some significant cost efficiencies. And that's where you would think some of the, you know, some of the help in terms of paying for this stuff is going to come from. It's going to come from a combination of, you know, higher revenue from these cloud companies, you know, just overall, you know, improvement in being able to monetize this stuff as well as through cost efficiencies.
- [13:42]
Lisa Abramowicz
And John was mentioning this Torsten SLOK note and it was hinting at what we're seeing, which is an increasing shift to Chinese open source models that essentially cost very little or even potentially are free at a time when they're really constrained about how many tokens they can really spend. At what point do you see the cost that people are willing to pay for the hyperscaler services coming down so much that increasing volume isn't enough to offset the declining revenues?
- [14:08]
John
I mean that's, that's a great question. I mean, I think when you kind of think about just, just how this, all this plays out, I mean we continue to, we don't think there's an end in sight in terms of the new use cases that you know, when we think about the, what is driving demand, right, it is the fact that you're going to continue to get new users that start adopting to AI usage. I mean even when you start looking at the chat GPT The Geminis users of the world, you're still at fairly low levels on where you can kind of get to here over the next couple of years, let's call it a billion to potentially 4 to 5 billion exiting the decade. When you start thinking about just the frequency of use of the new users as well as existing users, that's still got a ways to go, especially as the enterprise space just starts adopting AI across their workloads. And then you know, of course that computer per use is what's really kind of driven this evolution here over the next couple of years, the last couple of years. And we think still that's, you know, we think as you kind of go here over the next couple of years, you're going to continue to see greater usage of that. So you know, I think it's an interesting point. I think, you know, when it's all said and done, I don't think it's going to kind of stop when we stop the actual AI usage and kind of the adoption of AI and what the potential here is going to be. And as a result, I mean, you know, clearly as you start thinking about the rest of the supply chain there, there you would think, you know, continued
- [15:33]
Emory
room to run when it comes to the end models. I'd love to get Your reaction on Fable 5 now being available once again to the public. This will include, according to Anthropic, more collaboration with the United States, including pre release access to models and safeguards for evaluation. Are you expecting this across all AI models, not just Anthropic, this closer relationship with the US Government?
- [15:57]
John
I think so. I mean, I think you've also seen OpenAI start to, you know, make comments as well, you know, as of late, you know, and them kind of working closely with the US Government as well. So I would suspect as we kind of start thinking about more of these leading edge models that are expected to roll out here, you know, in the coming quarters and years and what have you. I think there's going to be greater scrutiny between, you know, security and the option, you know, the, the, the new capabilities that could come out with these new models. And as a result you're going to have to work with the US Government to some extent or kind of, you know, make ensure clearance on that. And so yeah, I mean I'd expect to see more of that as we kind of look ahead. I think it is a positive that we've, we've kind of gotten the thumbs up to roll this stuff out in terms of, you know, the ongoing adoption and new capabilities, capabilities that we could potentially see here from AI.
- [16:49]
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us.
- [16:50]
Host/Interviewer
More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
- [16:57]
IBM Representative
The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced cost by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.
- [17:26]
Public.com Representative
IBM support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC. SEC registered advisor complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures
- [18:38]
Venture Global Representative
never bet against American Grit American Energy through innovation Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
- [19:12]
Host/Interviewer
Let's turn to autos. Nissan unveiling its vision for an AI defined vehicle. Announcing plans to use cutting edge software to shrink development times and fast track autonomous driving technology across 90% of its lineup. Joining us now is the Nissan President and CEO Ivan Espinosa. Yvonne, good to see you sir. Thanks for being a good morning with us here in New York. One question, okay, then we're going to move on quickly, I promise us. How many cars have you sold in Seabreeze Blue Pearl in the last few months since a well known manufacturer came out with a very expensive car in what looked like Seabreeze Blue Pearl.
- [19:44]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, it was a surprise for us to see this car coming out because this coincidentally the same color, like emblematic color that we use for our launch of the Nissan Leaf. So it was an interesting surprise, I would say.
- [19:56]
Host/Interviewer
I'll move on quickly for you so we don't have to talk about it too much. Let's talk about the new car.
- [20:00]
Jonathan Ferro
Cars.
- [20:00]
Host/Interviewer
Can you describe for our audience the future of driving and what it's going to look like? Because if you think about what it's been like for the last century, it really hasn't changed too much. Four wheels, a driver, a wheel, you know, that's how it works. It gets better, technology improves, but we haven't seen massive changes. How different is it going to be
- [20:18]
Ivan Espinosa
going to completely evolve? So we're working a lot of with AI technology to bring the cars into a full autonomous end to end experience where you simply sit in the, in the car, behind the wheel. The car will take over for you. Let's say, you know, I'm living in Japan, so let's say you go and play golf on the weekend. If you enjoy driving, maybe you enjoy driving in the morning towards the golf course, you drive by yourself, but then on the way back there's usually a lot of traffic. So you will just ask the car to drive for yourself, engage the autonomous mode and then you can just either relax, check your news. There's a lot of things that you can do with people's time while they're sitting in the cabin because we have two massive screens in front of them and then we can feed a lot of information, we can make their lives more productive, entertainment. There's a lot of things that we are, we are imagining for the future.
- [21:03]
Host/Interviewer
Development times are an interesting piece of this as well. I'd love to breathe some life into that conversation. If you're in a car lot right now and you're trying to sell individual cars, it's a dream. If you work for a manufacturer that can cut lead times for development and bring new cars to market, how them sell, right? Have some sell. That's what a lot of companies are looking for. How's this going to change too?
- [21:23]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, we have evolved a lot, you know, in the past 18 months we have shortened our development process by around 40%. So now we are able of putting new cars on the road in 30 months from the concept, you know, moment all the way to the start of production. 30 months for a global development car. So this is a speed that Nissan has now and it's helping us adjust a lot our, you know, launching schedule. And it's the future because the world is so unpredictable these days. We used to be a company that put a lot of energy forecasting and trying to predict what will happen in the future. But this is impossible now. You know, with all the geopolitics and play and the context in which we live, it's very complicated. So we decided to put our energy just on being a nimbler and quicker company because this is a way to cope with the uncertainty of the world. And as I said, we have reduced our development Times now at 40%.
- [22:12]
Lisa Abramowicz
It does seem like these two things are at odds, right? On one hand you've got the technological advancement that can speed things up and you've got policy that's just completely all over the place when it comes to things like autonomous driving and how you even test it. I mean, where do you think you're going to see the acceleration of autonomous driving and Nissan's market the fastest just based on what you're allowed to test and what you're allowed to roll out?
- [22:33]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, I think we need to go step by step. That technology today is actually ready. You can, you can with the technology that we are working today with our partner Wave, actually it's almost level four ready. So it means a drive completely a driver, driverless car. But we need to go step by step, not only because of the regulators, but also because of the consumers. We don't want the consumers to, you know, suddenly be averse of the technology. We need to one step at a time. And we will gradually introduce this technology. We're starting with our products in Japan. We will have first end to end capable car, which is called El Grande. We will launch at the end of next fiscal year 27 and then we will gradually roll out this technology all over the world. We want to have that technology applied in as much as 90, as much as 90% of our lineup. So that technology is really promising, is super exciting and it's the future of the automobile.
- [23:22]
Lisa Abramowicz
There also have been all of these international moats that have been created, particularly with the auto sector in the United States rates. How much do you see the weaker yen as an offset to that given the fact that maybe you could even offer a cheaper price or you know, have some sort of ability to maneuver on that competitive angle?
- [23:40]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, actually the world again, as I was saying, is very unpredictable. So you need to hedge your bets and you need to remain flexible. And this is what we're doing, our industrial footprint, one of the Beauties that it has is that we are so widely spread around the world that we have the ability to pivot depending on what happens with one. One thing is a forex exchange, but you have other things like policy, like new rules, emissions. There's so many things happening all over the place that you need to remain very nimble and, you know, very widely spread and play a good strategy.
- [24:11]
Emory
But specifically to Lisa's point, with, you know, the strengthening of the dollar, the weakening of the yen, are you going to, at this moment, change any of your plans to capitalize on that?
- [24:20]
Ivan Espinosa
No, we will continue the strategy that we have set in the U.S. which is building cars in the U.S. we have two very large manufacturing sites, one in Smyrna, Tennessee, the other in Canada, Mississippi, and we will continue doing that. So to give you some numbers, last year, January, around 45% of our product mix was built in the U.S. the rest was imported from either Japan or Mexico. And we closed the year with 60% of our product mix being built in the US and we will continue doing that because it makes sense with the current context in which we're living. It does make sense to continue investing in the US and continue bringing more cars into North America, given the current tariff environment.
- [25:00]
Emory
I believe for every auto produced in Mexico, it's about 2 or $3,000 more. What are you doing with that? How much is being passed on to the consumer and how much are you just absorbing?
- [25:09]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, we have a very aggressive cost reduction program which we started the year ago when I took over the company. And we are focusing a lot on the products are built in Mexico because they are cost competitive. But it's true, they are currently tariffs 25%, which is. It's making part of the lineup that we're bringing from Mexico difficult to sell. So we have a very strong cost reduction program on those vehicles because we do see an opportunity. You know, looking at the pressure that the US Market has today in terms of affordability, we see that potentially some of the buyers could be moving into these, these type of vehicles. So we are working very strongly on making them more competitive. So we can probably take advantage of that.
- [25:49]
Host/Interviewer
If you can wrap it up by talking about China.
- [25:51]
Ivan Espinosa
Sure.
- [25:51]
Host/Interviewer
How difficult is it to compete with Chinese auto manufacturers?
- [25:56]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, China is a world of its own. I would say it's a very unique ecosystem.
- [26:01]
Host/Interviewer
What makes it unique?
- [26:02]
Ivan Espinosa
I think the technology, speed, costs are. They're moving at a very different speed than the rest of the world. And for me, it's important to remain present in China because I believe a lot of the future standards of the industry are being said by, by some of the Chinese players today, again in terms of speed, in terms of costs and in terms of technology. So for me, the role of China is twofold. One is of course continuing to produce and sell cars in China because we, we have a, we have over 15 million users of Nissan products in that country. So we, we owe them product that is competitive and that is attractive for them. But at the same time it's a place where you can learn a lot and you can start exporting some of the methods, some of the processes and new ways of working that we have.
- [26:49]
Host/Interviewer
Given an example, what can we learn from from what they've done an industry right now that they seem to be dominating?
- [26:54]
Ivan Espinosa
Well, one of the things is when you look at the products in China today, almost 80% of the products are offered have autonomous technology embedded and customers are now not considering to buy a car if you don't offer some level of autonomous technology. So this is just an example of what can happen and what we can imagine coming out from these unique ecosystem that they have.
- [27:15]
Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
- [27:39]
Venture Global Representative
Never bet against American Grit or American Energy through innovation. Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy efforts a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
- [28:08]
Victoria Fernandez
Get the news you need in just 15 minutes.
- [28:11]
Public.com Representative
Start your day with Bloomberg Daybreak, the
- [28:13]
John
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- [28:17]
Victoria Fernandez
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John
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Victoria Fernandez
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Public.com Representative
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Bank of America Representative
Introducing B of A Rewards a new way to reward your every ambition. It all starts with a Bank of America checking account and grows from there. You get cash back deals on brands you know and love, plus a credit card rewards bonus, helping you earn more rewards on things you buy every day. Join B of A Rewards today for rewards tailored to your lifestyle. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America Open or enroll your account@bankofamerica.com B ofarewards. Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.