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Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.
Lisa Abramowicz
We begin this hour with stocks attempting to rally following the biggest one day drop in a month. Keith Leonard of Truist writing the encouraging development is that this is still looking more like rotation than broad based liquidation. Keith joins us now for more. Keith, I don't know when you wrote that, but does it apply to the price action of the last 24 hours too?
Keith Leonard
Oh yeah, certainly. And hey good, good Friday Jonathan. Listen, even yesterday you know we had that, you know, some big cap tech names down a lot and then you looked at the board yesterday, you had energy up, you had industrials up, you had financials up, you had health care up. So I think we're still seeing this big move up. But I also like, if you zoom out a bit here, Jonathan, back when we had that rally off the lows in March for the S and P, there was only one sector that outperformed one and that was tech. And tech was up 47. The closest sector behind it was. That was. Lagged it by almost, sorry, by more than 20%. So, you know, you had expectations reset higher. It was one sector is very dominated. And now that money is rotating to other areas. And to my, to the point that you just discussed, it's not leaving the market is this rotating to other areas. And you're also having some pretty good numbers. Yesterday, if I looked at the board yesterday, you had a lot of these industrials, you know, up 3, 4 or 5%.
Lisa Abramowicz
Keith, I think in some ways that speaks to what we're talking about in the bond market. So I mentioned these rolling shocks that we're experiencing right now through energy, through interest rates in the bond market. And I think it's important to point out we've had the energy shock, we've had the bond market jitters, we haven't had the growth scare. And Keith, does that speak to maybe your enthusiasm for this rotation in equities, which is a risk asset that should be sensitive to the growth backdrop, you believe that can continue?
Keith Leonard
Yeah, I do. I will also say at the same time, Jonathan, you know, we're still positive on tech longer term. I just think, as I mentioned, that it got too far, you know, went too far too fast. And now you're resetting. And as we've been discussing this morning, you know, the economy continues to prove resilient. In fact, I think, you know, most on Wall street, if you thought, you know, maybe a month ago, if you said, hey, yields are at 470, where's the stock market? Probably would think it would be, you know, hit a bit more. And you are seeing some of those, those tighter financial conditions hit in more of the growth areas of the market. But all in all, you know, I would trade a stronger economy than a weaker one with a little bit higher rates. And I think that's what the market's doing because ultimately that should still feed into strong earnings, which continues to be the north star of this bull market,
Annmarie Horden
which is the reason why, Keith, we're seeing a lot of people say the rotation is intact, but maybe the Magnificent Seven, or more specifically the hyperscalers are no Longer the same kind of bet that they were say six months ago yesterday. The biggest one day decline going back to Liberation Day and some of the turmoil there in 2025. Almost $800 billion in value erased from this particular index. Is it a buying opportunity or is it a warning shot?
Keith Leonard
Maybe somewhere in the middle? I mean, one of the dichotomies we wrote about, you know, coming out of last month was that, you know, the tech sector was up 18% at the time. At the same time the Mag 7 was actually down for the year. And that's a lot of because of semiconductors. So, you know, I would say more broadly, not just the Mag 7. I mean, the one thing that kind of stood out to me is, you know, late last year the technology sector was trading for about a 32 multiple. Now that's down to about 23. The premium for tech to the overall market early in this bull market was about 45%. That was the PE and now we're down to about 10. So at least, at least the good news to me is you're resetting expectations. And even though as you know, not saying something specific about a recommendation for stocks, but like, you know, Google and revenue and Intel's revenue numbers were 25%, it's hard pressed to find that. So overall I still think ultimately that tech will be a buying opportunity. Is it right here, right now? I'm not sure about that yet. But ultimately I think money will rotate back into tech. And the last thing I'll just say is we continue to have this love hate relationship with tech. This is the fifth pullback of at least 10% on this bull market. During the entire bull market, tech has doubled the S&P 500. So it's just, you know, like I said, the love hate relationship that we're
Annmarie Horden
seeing, it does feel a little bit different this time. And I know I'm going to get pilloried for saying that because those are the most hated words in financial markets. There is a new cost to borrow money for some of these hyperscalers in particular. And I wanted to bifurcate the tech universe into the hyperscalers of spenders and then the receivers. As John does a good job of talking about the wealth transfer at this point. Seem like the charge is getting bigger for a lot of these hyperscalers. Their desires are continuing to grow at paces that we cannot track. And there has been a sense of concern in markets at a time of already elevated bond yields around the world. Doesn't this change the calculus on some level on A multiple level or even just on a growth prospect level?
Keith Leonard
Yeah, certainly, I would say, Lisa, you know, one thing we've been really starting to track even more closely is breaking out all the technology, big cap tech stocks and look at credit spreads and they're moving up and, and even like Oracle being the poster child, you're seeing when CDX makes a new high, the stock is moving lower. So no, I think it is very important. I think it is one of the main, the key risks that we're looking at but I guess as I think about things is, you know, we were trading at a 32 multiple, now we're down to a 23. That premium that I mentioned has really evaporated. So at least in my mind the market has, has, has rerated down because of those very risks that, that you're talking about. So I guess the question, the open question is is it rerated enough? And again, you know, on a very short term, I think it's a difficult call, but I think at this point at least we really reset expectations. Again, not, not recommendations on individual stocks because that's not my, my area of focus. But even like you look at, you know, after what happened with Alphabet, you're trading at a sub P E relative to the overall market as far as a discount now. And at the same time you've seen these companies with really strong revenue growth. So I think all that's in the mix, Lisa, but I think again, I would still think I' tech longer term. The benefit of the doubt.
Lisa Abramowicz
Yesterday was different and Bramo, I'm pleased you went there. Yesterday was different because this equity market punished the spending of Alphabet and Tesla and didn't reward the chip makers, which is where the money would go. Semis were down on the session yesterday, which I think would be surprising for a lot of people if they looked at the numbers of the spend coming out of the likes of Alphabet and the likes of Tesla. So you have to question the effectiveness of the spend return on investment and the durability, the sustainability of the spend as well. And the cost of capital is going to become increasingly important. I think you can see that in bonds and increasingly just on the margin, just a little bit more you can see in credit.
Annmarie Horden
So right now you're starting to see spreads widen as Keith was just talking about. And yesterday we saw some real pushback. But you're right, normally the wealth transfer would be alive and well. You'd see that inverse relationship. The idea that it's not indicates that maybe people don't believe that spend project can really continue at the pace that it is or that there's going to be enough competitive pressure to lower prices, lower margins and potentially get some new competitors into the field.
Lisa Abramowicz
I'm not going to draw firm conclusions from 24 hours of price action. Lisa won't either. But Keith, it's notable that yesterday chips didn't rally that had a nice little run going into earnings. Monday, Tuesday, decent few days of gains, three days I believe on the semis. Keith, then things started to change just yesterday. What was your reaction to that?
Keith Leonard
Well, I mean I think it is important as you mentioned right now there's so much uncertainty about how all the spending turns into cash flow and when. But I also remind folks like, you know, semiconductor just came off an 80% plus quarter. So in some ways I think that that was anticipating these good numbers and and you know, it's priced in. So it does tell you at this point that this kind of cooling or this reset in tech in semiconductors likely has a bit further to go because it was so overheated. In fact, the move that we have seen in semiconductors over the last year is the strongest we have seen since the the late 90s. But ultimately I think one of the things that's different so far, and we can debate this is you know, valuations are half of what they were in the semiconductors back in the late 90s and earnings trends are much stronger. Obviously we are still asking the question of what's normalized earnings as well. But I think the main point going back to where I started is, you know, you just you had a lot of good news priced in into this quarter. So I'm not surprised you're not seeing the reaction because you are up 80% for the overall index.
Lisa Abramowicz
Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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Lisa Abramowicz
So here's the lace is this morning the White House touting efforts to fight inflation. The President announcing an expansion of the ratepayer protection pledge. The President now scheduled to deliver an economic message in the key battleground state of Michigan on Monday. Monica Guarantor and the team over at Morgan Stanley writing in their mid term election preview the following Even when growth is resilient, voters often discount healthy macro data when their lived experience is defined by higher cost for gas, groceries, rent and utilities. Monica joins us now for more. Monica, good morning.
Monica Guarantor
Good morning.
Lisa Abramowicz
It's good to see you. This is going to be a major issue into the midterms. What can you do between now and then? If you're a policymaker?
Monica Guarantor
If you're a policymaker, you're looking for every avenue. I think that the Trump announcement around corporations contributing to power generation and trying to reduce those costs is one of those measures. But you have to balance that with what's happening geopolitically and globally. When we see what's happening with the US and Iran, pressures on gas prices, right? And that and that elevation as well as, you know, concerns at the local level just around housing and that's more of a, of a local issue, not one that the federal government can just come in and cut.
Unnamed Host/Interviewer
It's the last week of Congress in terms of before their summer holiday that you have both the House and the Senate in session. Gas prices are going up. Americans are pushing back in polls about this war. Are they going to do something when it comes to, to at least some of the immediate effects of the pump?
Monica Guarantor
So what's really interesting about this is that you see, you know, like you said, it's really unpopular war. About 59% of the population is not in favor and Congress has actually moved to rebuke the President. A Republican held house has rebuked the President with this GOP war act, saying that they are not in favor of continuation. However, Senate sensitivity, not going to move on that. So it's mainly symbolic. And in the same hand, right, one hand, you're saying, you know, we're not in favor of 95 billion, right, for more spending on the Iran war. So what are they going to do? There's limited tools that they can actually pull on. Maybe you look to releasing more from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US but even that is very limited. We already have dwindling levels of the SPR to historic lows and any sort of shift there would maybe a, alter pricing for a week or two ahead of the midterm. So you would have to really time it strategically.
Unnamed Host/Interviewer
The other risk this morning, of course, is the reintroduction of new tariffs. The markets seem to be brushing this off, but some analysts I'm talking to are saying their clients, corporations really care. They're going through these lists. Is this going to be an issue for this White House with some of these C suite executives?
Monica Guarantor
Well, what we've seen is that the broader, in our view, we think that the broader cost pass through to the individual related to tariffs has peaked and is starting to come down. You know, we have seen a lower inflation print. However, all this macro activity could turn that tide, right. It's just was a small disinflationary moment in, in June. So for us, we're still, you know, very much watching that number and seeing, you know, what the, what Congress and you know, the Trump is going to do to actually move on it. Now what's important here for us when we're thinking about tariffs in the future is, is the full package for the consumer and how they're going to respond in the midterms. And so from the, from the political science lens, we're looking at gas prices, which in years where there is an increase from the prior January, you get a loss of about 32 seats. So it really puts the GOP already on the back foot, not Just because historically you get a turnover in midterms, but then you also have the gas price component also dragging on the likelihood of re election.
Annmarie Horden
So that's the election picture and sort of the lead up to it from a market perspective. I understand that I've got a very skewed kind of view on a lot of things, but yesterday I saw the data on or the, the news about the tariffs and I thought, oh, they're looking for new revenue to plug some of the gaps because the deficit, deficits going up so much. Maybe this could help bond yields. Is that even in their calculus? Because at this point you're seeing bond yields really get carried away and affecting some of the areas that they've been talking about the most, like housing.
Monica Guarantor
Well, you have to remember that the tariffs that have been recently announced are largely symbolic.
Lisa Abramowicz
Right?
Monica Guarantor
You're saying, you know, Trump came out and said 100% tariffs on pharma, but that starts in 2028 again post election. So it's not necessarily a midterm factor. Nor do I think that it's really a revenue plug because it's giving a long Runway in order to get, you know, these generics back to the U.S. in addition, when you think about the USMCA renegotiations, we've said long, for a long time now over and over again that this was going to be a pressure point for the summer. And we're starting to see that come to head on the 50% on Canada that we think could have the biggest impact. But again, that's still an opening bid. And when you're working with Trump, you have to remember this administration, we always land somewhere in the middle. So as far as the tariff component, I think it's a little less risky than say, the gas and US Iran
Annmarie Horden
piece of the equation.
Lisa Abramowicz
Shelley says bias. I was looking at the bond market
Jonathan Ferro
to stay with us.
Lisa Abramowicz
More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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Senator Dave McCormick
Network,
Lisa Abramowicz
The Republican Senator Dave McCormick. Coming fresh off last week's Pennsylvania Defense and innovation summit, securing $10 billion in new investments for his state, the US sensitive Senator Dave McCormick joins us now for more. Good morning sir. It's good to see you.
Senator Dave McCormick
Morning.
Lisa Abramowicz
Let's talk about the nature of this challenge and the character of the challenge defensively has changed as well. And the Middle East a fantastic example of that this morning. What do we need to change when we think about the kind of investments that need to be made in this country?
Senator Dave McCormick
Well, there's three three big changes that have happened. One, the world's getting more dangerous to the nature of war. Warfare is changing dramatically with drones, autonomy, AI and third, we had apathy within our defense ecosystem. So we need to introduce new players into our defense ecosystem, drone manufacturers and all sorts of other Unique capabilities. And we need to change the way we procure defense systems. So needs to be much faster and needs to be much more competitive. We need to constantly be innovating. And so the focus of the summit was to bring together the traditional industrial base. We've gone from, from to 1% of global shipping building. So we need to go back to the core industrial base but introduce all these new technologies into the mix. So the goal of that was to bring those players together, have the President have his cabinet there, have all the major primes, all the emerging technologies, all the big investors, because you need the capital. And talk about ways to move forward in accelerating our ability to man the battlefield with this next generation of weapons.
Unnamed Host/Interviewer
Senator, it's an important conversation to have now because we are relying on inventories when it comes to the war in the Middle East. All that has been given in terms of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Where are we on defense inventories?
Senator Dave McCormick
Well, I think we're, we're where we were adequate in terms of being able to continue to conduct military operations. But there's no doubt that we need to ramp up our production capacity. Let me just give you an example. In, in Ukraine they make 10,000 drones a day, a day. We have nowhere near that manufacturing capacity here at home. So we need to ramp up that manufacturing capacity. In shipbuilding as another example, we in Philadelphia ship build. Shipyard. We build one ship a year, we need to go to 20, which we're doing over the next five years. So we've let ourselves become more dependent on others and we've let ourselves locked into looking backwards at Last year's or 30 year old platforms as opposed to embracing this next generation of technology.
Unnamed Host/Interviewer
When it comes to next generation technology, when it comes to the Iran war, we've been heard from Palantir executives. This is going to be the first war that really was conducted by AI. Are you concerned that China is building a model like Kimmy K3 off of our technology?
Senator Dave McCormick
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean China has a tradition of stealing our intellectual property and using that to their advantage. That's why we need to continue to do all the things necessary to lead in the air race. I always like to say that we have can. I'd rather have our hand than China's hand, but it depends on what we do. So we need to embrace the compute capacity and the energy capacity needed to be in the lead. We need to make sure we don't overly constrain our innovators because this is really the most important technology race of our lifetimes.
Lisa Abramowicz
And we are throwing tons of capital at it.
Senator Dave McCormick
We're throwing tons.
Lisa Abramowicz
And that's what's different about this moment, I think, for treasury. And I want to make that pivot. I think it's important. The military costs a lot of money. We know that. And the deficit wasn't a problem because we didn't see the biggest companies on the planet raising the capital to the extent they are now. And you start to see these moves and you're in a fantastic scene. I mentioned this earlier on the program. You're in many ways the perfect seat because you bring to the Senate experience on both the geopolitics, the cost of war and Wall street, how you finance it. Are you starting to get concerned about what's happening with the bond market here at these levels? And if not, when?
Senator Dave McCormick
Well, well, listen, we are in uncharted territory. I think last time I was here, we talked about this. We've got a couple of things going. We're in the middle of this geopolitical shock with what's happening in the Middle east. And we're also in the biggest capital boom and productivity wave that we've ever seen. So I think we're digesting both things at the same time. And we talked about. My friend Kevin was now in this unique position because he has these inflationary pressures coming, but we also have this huge productivity boom coming. And I think he's wisely said we're going to launch these committees, we're going to figure out how we're going to think about the models for the future. And, and he's also talked in, I think, very convincing ways about the need to guard against inflation. And so I think, I think for the foreseeable future, we've got all these factors and we need to just keep our powder dry.
Lisa Abramowicz
You think he should hike next week?
Senator Dave McCormick
We should keep our powder it.
Keith Leonard
Right.
Lisa Abramowicz
That means hold.
Senator Dave McCormick
Well, listen, I'm unfortunately not in that
Lisa Abramowicz
position because Senator Warren, your colleague from Massachusetts, has no problem calling out the Federal Reserve. You're in a position where you can say what you think.
Senator Dave McCormick
Yeah, listen, I, I think given all those factors and uncertainty, I would, I would like to see interest rates stay where they are.
Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app,
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This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance (aired July 24, 2026) centers on the resilience and rotation within U.S. equity markets, the shifting dynamics in tech stocks, macroeconomic challenges ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, and the national security/defense investment landscape. Hosts Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern interview key market strategists and a U.S. Senator, dissecting the intersection of markets, policy, and geopolitics.
“If you zoom out a bit here...back when we had that rally off the lows in March…there was only one sector that outperformed...tech. Now that money is rotating to other areas. It’s not leaving the market, it’s just rotating to other areas.”
— Keith Leonard ([02:24])
“Ultimately I think money will rotate back into tech...this is the fifth pullback of at least 10% on this bull market. During the entire bull market, tech has doubled the S&P 500. So it’s just...the love-hate relationship that we’re seeing.”
— Keith Leonard ([04:54])
“The broader cost pass-through to the individual related to tariffs has peaked and is starting to come down… but… gas prices… put the GOP already on the back foot…”
— Monica Guarantor ([15:09])
“We need to introduce new players into our defense ecosystem, drone manufacturers and all sorts of other unique capabilities... and we need to change the way we procure defense systems. Needs to be much faster and much more competitive.”
— Senator Dave McCormick ([20:51])
“Given all those factors and uncertainty, I would like to see interest rates stay where they are.”
— Senator McCormick ([25:09])
On Tech’s Turbulence and Long-Term Outlook
On Election-Year Economic Policy Limits
On U.S. Defense Preparedness
On Fiscal and Monetary Dilemmas
| Segment | Guest / Speakers | Topic | Timestamp | |--------------------------|------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------|------------| | Markets & Rotation | Keith Leonard (Truist) | Sector rotation, tech valuation reset | 02:05-06:43| | Tech/Hyperscalers Risks | Keith Leonard, Hosts | Credit risk in tech/hyperscalers, chipmaker selloff | 06:43-09:09| | Midterm Economic Policy | Monica Guarantor (Morgan Stanley) | Inflation, gas, tariffs, election implications | 12:34-16:41| | Defense & Fiscal Policy | Senator Dave McCormick (R-PA) | Defense innovation, manufacturing, bond market, rates | 20:26-25:09|
The tone is pragmatic, analytical, and solution-focused. Guests and hosts alike acknowledge the complex cross-currents buffeting both markets and policymaking—sector rotations rather than outright panic, a tech sector cooling but not collapsing, U.S. politics bound by limits of fiscal reality, and national security needing modernization at pace with global threats. Inflation and rates remain central to both Wall Street and Washington strategies heading into the politically charged second half of 2026.
For listeners: Expect thorough overviews of current financial market dynamics, policy responses constrained by geopolitics and voter pocketbooks, and deep dives into the intersection of technology, defense, and fiscal management in today’s turbulent macro environment.