Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 9th, 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 9th, 2026 — Detailed Episode Summary

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Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance features in-depth analysis of current trends in finance, economics, and geopolitics, with a particular focus on the sustainability of equity market gains, risks in the AI investment boom, ongoing tensions in the Middle East (specifically US-Iran relations), and nuances within the US labor market. The hosts—Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern—interview market expert Bob Elliot (Unlimited Funds) and General Karen Gibson (Academy Securities), delivering rich insights and debate on pressing issues affecting markets and policy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Sustainability of AI and CapEx-Driven Equity Market Gains

Guest: Bob Elliot (Unlimited Funds)
Timeframe: 02:05 – 08:21

Massive Investment & Expectations

• Bob Elliot warns about unsustainably high expectations for returns on massive technology CapEx ($5 trillion over 5 years into 2030).
  • “To get anywhere close to a reasonable return, you’re talking about... 2, 3, 4 trillion dollars of revenue” on top of already massive revenues. (02:49)
  • He notes that the hyperscalers generated $1.5T in the past 12 months, but are expected to add an additional $3–$4T.
  • “That is a largely implausible outcome... more than 10% of GDP of the US economy going to hyperscaler revenues.” (05:30)

Unsustainable Earnings Expectations

• Markets anticipate 31% annualized earnings growth, a figure Elliot labels as historic and unlikely.
  • “You have very, very high expectations… and that is a recipe for disappointment.” (03:55)
  • Data center growth, a key AI driver, has slowed from doubling a year ago to only 15%. (04:50)

How Should Investors Respond?

• Bob highlights the challenge in timing bubbles: “Trading bubbles is a tricky proposition... The most conservative way... is to not lean in, rebalance back and wait for a tougher environment ahead.” (06:26)
• He suggests waiting for unpredictable ‘sparks’—possibly geopolitical risks or Fed action—to break market momentum.

Notable Quote:

“There’s all this pressure to lean, and don’t lean in—rebalance back and wait.”
— Bob Elliot (06:26)

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2. Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran Tensions and Oil Markets

Guests: Bob Elliot & General Karen Gibson
Timeframes: 07:33 – 09:29; 10:42 – 14:15

Market Impact of Renewed Middle East Tensions

• US military action against Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation have nearly halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Jonathan Ferro paraphrases former President Trump:

    “We hit them 20 to 1. Every time they hit us, we’re going to hit them 20.” (11:03)

• Bob Elliot stresses that the oil inventory drawdown is masking deeper unresolved supply issues:
  • “We are barreling towards a loss of inventories... That’s still happening.” (08:26)
• He cautions that if the Iran conflict intensifies, bringing oil price spikes, the Fed may be forced to tighten, potentially popping the current market bubble.

General Karen Gibson on Military and Policy Risks

• There’s a structural US-Iran stalemate, particularly concerning control over vital shipping lanes.
  • “The Iranians are insistent that they will control the transit of vessels... I see very little room for overlap.” (11:35)
• The US Navy is capable of protecting tankers, but drone and missile threats are difficult to counter.
  • “The question is... to what extent can we protect against vast numbers of drones and missiles... that provide a very minimal warning.” (12:48)
• The military burden falls predominantly on the Navy, Air Force, and intelligence assets, less so on ground forces.

Notable Quote:

“If that ramps up, we’re still on a knife’s edge in terms of creating a loss of inventories that would create a price spike ahead in oil.”
— Bob Elliot (08:26)

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3. Labor Market: Stability Masking Structural Weaknesses

Hosts & Contributor: Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern (with reference to ADP Research)
Timeframe: 14:58 – 20:27

Headline Stability, Hidden Pain

• Jobless claims are stable, but the labor market isn't dynamic.
  • Annmarie Hordern: “We've had enormous stability in jobless claims, but the health of the labor market is how it's treating new entrants.” (15:26)
  • Teenage unemployment is at its highest outside the pandemic in the last decade (~14.5–14.6%); long-term unemployment also elevated.
  • Structurally, it's increasingly difficult for early-career and long-term unemployed to (re-)enter the market.

Stagnant Turnover and Demographic Drags

• “It’s a low hire, low fire labor market... and it’s a cost we don’t see because these people aren’t in the labor market.” (16:43)
• Jonathan: “When you see a 4.2% unemployment rate, it would imply this labor market is quite tight.”
• Annmarie: “I think it’s quite still. There’s not a lot of dynamism... If you pack on the other data, what we see is a labor market that’s not very inviting to those on the outside.” (17:09)

Winners and Losers Inside the Market

• Employed workers see stability and some wage gains, but minimal upward mobility due to low churn.
  • “If you already have a job, you have stable wages… There might not be a lot of upward mobility…” (18:09)

Early Career Frustration

• Fewer young people are gaining experience via entry-level or summer jobs; unemployment among college students and recent grads remains high.
  • Annmarie recounts her own early work experience and asserts:

    “There are things that you can only learn through experience... We're not even seeing the retail sector or the leisure or hospitality sector take very young workers and teach them about the labor market.” (19:14)

Notable Moment:

Jonathan reminisces:

“I wash dishes and refined my Italian speaking skills there. You got a deep understanding of cursing.”
— Jonathan Ferro (20:22)

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4. Memorable Quotes & Banter

• On the AI Boom:

  "You're already starting to see lots of cracks in how productive the AI trade is going to be... We actually see data center growth slowing considerably."
  — Bob Elliot (04:26)

• On Bubble Timing:

  "Bubbles are very, very hard to recognize on a forward looking basis. But there will be [a spark]... and it could shift very, very quickly."
  — Bob Elliot (06:57)

• On Oil & Inventories:

  “This inventory drawdown is basically creating the illusion that everything’s fine... We’re still on a knife’s edge.”
  — Bob Elliot (08:26)

• Workplace Humor:

  “Should see how fast I’m at home now. Just clearing the kitchen.”
  — Jonathan Ferro (20:33)

• On "Hotspan" (Light segment at close):

  “Forget healthspan. Midlife men face pressure to extend hotspan.”
  — Lisa Abramowicz (21:08)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Time | |-----------------------------------------|------------| | Intro: CapEx & AI Earnings Risks | 02:05–08:21| | Middle East Geopolitics & Oil | 10:42–14:15| | Labor Market Analysis | 14:58–20:27| | Light Banter ("Hotspan") | 21:06–21:23|

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains a brisk, rigorous, and sometimes wryly humorous tone, blending market skepticism (Bob Elliot’s cautions about bubbles and AI) with policy and military realism (General Gibson’s analysis), plus relatable, lighter exchanges among the hosts.

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Summary in a Sentence:
This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance critically examines the sustainability of outsized tech and AI investment returns, the lurking risks of geopolitical instability, and the labor market’s veneer of health—exposing cracks hidden beneath the data, all delivered with incisive analysis and lively banter.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Jonathan Ferro]

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin this out with stocks pushing Kai Bob Elliot of Unlimited Funds writing, it's becoming increasingly clear that most investment will experience poor returns even if things go well. Future income growth is getting increasingly squeezed from all sides. Bob joins us now for more. Bob, good morning.

[Bob Elliot]

Good morning.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Is it becoming increasingly clear, what are you looking at that's painting that picture for you?

[Bob Elliot]

Well, I think the, the basic picture of if you look at a plan for $5 trillion of CapEx over the next five years or cumulatively through 2030, and you think about what sort of revenues have to come on that 5 trillion of capex in order to get anywhere close to a reasonable return, you're talking about at a minimum, a few trillion dollars, right? 2, 3, 4 trillion dollars of revenue in order to make a good, an extraordinary amount of revenue. That has to happen. If you look at the hyperscalers today, what do they make in the last 12 months? 1.5 trillion. So you're talking about over the next five years they're going to add, on top of the 1.5 trillion, they're going to add three, $4 trillion of additional revenue. That is an incredible amount of revenue that they have to get. Now each one of those different hyperscalers is seeing the opportunity to be the lead. And so each one may be making a rational decision, but in aggregate it is largely impossible that we're going to see this sort of revenue growth.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Let's build on that. The biggest source of comfort for this equity market right now is earnings. Are you saying that could be the source of risk in the years to come?

[Bob Elliot]

Well, I think any time you're looking at a market, what's going to end up happening is how things come in relative to expectations. And so it's really important to look at what the expectations are right now. And right now over the next three quarters, markets are expecting, your analysts are expecting 31% annualized earnings growth on top of the extraordinary quarter in the first quarter. We're not talking about five years forward type earnings, although even those are at the highest level they've ever been in 50 years, the highest level they've ever been in terms of expected earnings growth. And so you have very, very high expectations. And most of what people are doing is penciling out what was a great quarter in the first quarter to exist, not just through the end of the year, but through 2027 and out into the future. And that is a recipe for disappointment. You're already starting to see lots of cracks in, in the view of how productive the AI trade is going to be, how much investment is going to occur. We actually see data center growth slowing considerably. It was double, it was doubling a year ago. Today it's growing at about 15% from the latest data. Those are the sorts of numbers that are not going to achieve 31% annualized growth rates in revenue in earnings across the entirety of the equity market.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

That said, slowing is not exactly a terrible proposition considering how fast some of these have been growing. I was looking at SK Hynix and the revenue increase year over year. For the first quarter it was about 200% year over year. When you take a look at just the overall revenues, I mean, if they just come in at 150% growth year over year, are people going to start crying? I mean, what is the pace of deceleration that you're expecting that really could cause some concern?

[Bob Elliot]

Well, in order to get trillions of dollars of revenue on all this hyperscaler investment, you need revenue growth in the AI sector to run at more than 100% a year, compounded over five years. What are the odds that that's going to happen? Well, it's never happened in any sector in, in at any scale in history. Talking about cloud computing, you're talking about, you know, back in the web days, smartphones. None of those have seen that sort of compounded type revenue growth in a sector. Not to mention the fact we're talking about $4 trillion of revenue growth. That's, that's more than 10% of GDP of the US economy going to hyperscaler revenues. That is a largely implausible outcome.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

So a lot of people are probably listening to this, nodding along, saying yeah, yeah, yeah, he'll be right, but maybe in a year. And in the meantime, the music still playing, so we're going to keep dancing. What do you do with this? Even if eventually you're right, do you act on it now?

[Bob Elliot]

Well, trading bubbles is a tricky proposition for anyone who's, anyone who's been in markets for a little bit of time has gone down the road of the early short and feeling the pain from it. And so there's sort of, I'd say two different ways to approach this. First of all, if you're a largely long only investor, the trade off here is do you lean into this mania or do you say are you thankful for the gains, rebalance back and prepare for a little tougher environment ahead. And so really it's about rebalancing. That's the most conservative way to deal with this, is to not lean in. There's all this pressure to lean and don't lean in, rebalance back and wait for there's going to be a time. And the question is what is the spark and sparks that pop? Bubbles are very, very hard to recognize on a forward looking basis. But there will be Something maybe it's this, this tiff or skirmish that happens in Iran starts to create expectations of Fed tightening, something like that, maybe that's what drives it. We have to be prepared that this could shift and it could shift very, very quickly.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Well, last time in some ways it pushed people back into the tech trade. Did these renewed tensions create any different kind of results?

[Bob Elliot]

Well, I think it then comes down to what's going on, as Lisa mentioned at the outset in the financing markets. If we get a world where the Fed is forced to engage in more tightening because this Iran trade or because the Iran conflict starts to heat up again, we start to get inflationary pressures. The Fed really does have to be a little more restrictive. That that's the sort of thing that could easily start to funnel back. Right. If you can't get the debt issuance that's expected, if the equity markets aren't quite as open as people are expecting, that sort of tightening of liquidity is the thing in the financing markets that would then start to lead back into, in terms of what's going on in how much capex they can do. And from the capex, the earnings and

[Jonathan Ferro]

back, a few Fed officials got the edge of the June meeting. Do you believe July's life?

[Bob Elliot]

Certainly. I mean, I think if you look at what's going on with oil prices, the only reason why July wasn't live was because oil prices were down basically at where they started the war. That's changed now. It's hard to know exactly how far this is going to go, but I think it's important to recognize from a macro fundamental perspective the conflict in Iran and the Hormuz problem has not really been resolved. I mean, we only got ship flow through that was maybe a third at peak of what it was pre, you know, pre conflict. And so what that means is we are barreling towards a loss of inventories. That's still happening. You see what's going on with the spro, it's going down. You saw what was going on with Chinese oil imports. That was at 5 million barrels a day in June, even after the MOU was largely signed. And so this inventory drawdown is, Becky, basically creating the illusion that everything's fine and people sort of look past the political element. But if that ramps up, we're still, we're still on a knife's edge in terms of creating a loss of inventories that would create a price spike ahead in oil.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Get the news you need in just 15 minutes.

[Bob Elliot]

Start your day with Bloomberg Daybreak, the podcast with a global view on the stories that matter. I'm Nathan Hager.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us each morning for curated stories on current events, politics, business and foreign

[Bob Elliot]

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[Annmarie Horden]

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[Jonathan Ferro]

Under surveillance this morning, trading fire with Iran.

[Bob Elliot]

We just hit them very hard and I say we hit them 20 to 1. Every time they hit us, we're going to hit them 20. They did a little something today, but it was really retribution for last night. They had actually three boats, not two. And when they hit, we hit back much harder.

[Jonathan Ferro]

So here's the latest this morning. The US military striking about 90 Iranian targets in a second straight day of attacks. Tehran retaliating against American allies in the Persian Gulf, nearly halting traffic through the Strait of Formers. Let's build on this conversation with General Karen Gibson of Academy securities writing, when President Trump says the ceasefire is over, it is a political and potentially operational signal that he may no longer be committed to using restraint when employing military force. General Gibson joins us now for more. General, welcome back to the program. What do you think that means for the next few months?

[General Karen Gibson]

Well, I think this is very reminiscent obviously of the tit for tat strikes and counter strikes that we went through in late June. In essence, at core, I think it is a difference of opinion, a difference of interpretation between what how the US And Iran are viewing the rules that we agreed to in the MoU, supposedly for the transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. There are many other areas of potential conflict in the mou. This is just one that we'll have to work through. The Iranians are insistent that they will control the transit of vessels through the Strait, and of course that's something that we staunchly oppose. And I see very little room for overlap between these differing viewpoints between Iran and the United States. I don't see a speedy resolution of this essential difference.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

General, in the meantime, a real question about what the US Will do to ensure that oil tankers can continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Do you have a sense of what the US Appetite will be for to protect non Iranian crude tankers that are trying to traverse the Strait?

[General Karen Gibson]

I think the United States is probably prepared to do that. Certainly it's a capability that we have and the decision to do so would be a political decision. The U.S. navy has that ability and in fact has been assisting some of these vessels with their transit through the Omanian side of the Strait. The question is really though, to what extent can we protect against vast numbers of drones and missiles, shore launched missiles that are difficult to detect, that are very agile and that provide a very minimal warning before they are fired?

[Lisa Abramowicz]

General, the troop presence that we currently have, that the United States currently has in the region, how much do you expect that to be sustained at the level that it currently is at for the foreseeable future as a result to what norm rule was yet saying is the new normal going forward?

[General Karen Gibson]

Yes. So I think the heaviest burden obviously is on the naval forces and the air force and some of the vessels have been there for some time rotating through those vessels. It's also a very heavy lift on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft and the various sensors that we have for detecting threats because that's really a very heavy lift in protecting commercial vessels that would be as well as our own forces and our own bases that would be transiting through there. Not such a heavy lift for our ground forces do have ground forces deployed there, but they are obviously less engaged in this.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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[Jonathan Ferro]

What do you do with claims to 15? Like what did you just stop talking about it? Stop reporting the number?

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Well right now it seems like the Fed has stopped reporting number. They stopped talking about it because they are not looking at the labor market because it is flatlined in terms of not necessarily not existing but just in terms of the number changing. I think that's interesting as I'm saying

[Jonathan Ferro]

that Nada Richardson of ADP alongside me just gone. We've Got to talk about claims.

[Annmarie Horden]

I am itching to jump in.

[Jonathan Ferro]

I'm sorry I've not offended you as well. What do I do with claims to

[Annmarie Horden]

give you a fresh take place. So we've had enormous stability in jobless claims, but the health of the labor market is how it's treating new entrants. So let's go there. If you look at very early career, I wrote a blog this week about teenage unemployment. It's the highest unemployment rate we've seen outside the pandemic period in the last decade. It's around 14.5, 14.6%. It's harder for these inexperienced workers to get a job. And then I'd like to, to push back to those who are trying to get into this labor market. Those who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more above 20%. 27%. Now we haven't seen this level in four years. Going all the way back to the pandemic recovery. It's hard to enter this labor market as an inexperienced worker and it's hard to get back into this labor market. And that's what we're seeing. It's not just the layoffs, it's the roll offs. I think that's what you're going to see because one thing about being unemployed and getting unemployment insurance is that you have to be active in looking. If you give up, you're no longer counted as part of that active in looking. That leads into the unemployment rate. And the longer and higher we see these long term unemployed, the more likely we're going to see that discouraged worker share go up. And so this is the, the cost of a very stagnant labor market. This low hire, low fire labor market has a cost and it's a cost we don't see because these people aren't in the labor market.

[Jonathan Ferro]

To your point, you don't see it because when you see a 4.2% unemployment rate, it would imply this labor market is quite tight.

[Annmarie Horden]

Right.

[Jonathan Ferro]

How would you characterize it?

[Annmarie Horden]

I think it's quite still. There's, and we've talked about this before, there's just, there's not a lot going on. There's not a lot of dynamism. Some of this is because of demographics. People are leaving early, maybe they got their retirement boom already, their house price boom already, and they're ready to leave. There's plenty of other stuff to do besides work in this economy. Maybe it's just that they just never found their footing in this labor market because the turnover is so low. Those opportunities are so uneven. They're not opening up in the same pace and they've given up. And so we have to look at this. We can't look at this initial jobs club number in isolation. If you pack on the other data, what we see is a labor market that's not very inviting to those on the outside.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Is it wonderful though, on the inside? I mean, I'm asking because are the people who actually are employed getting more effective, getting more efficient and getting paid a lot more and so seeing wage increases at a faster clip?

[Annmarie Horden]

You know, at ADP Research, we've been writing a lot about how there's very little turnover, that workers are kind of staying put. Some would say stuck, some would say happy. There's a lot to be happy about in this labor market. If you already have a job, you have stable wages, that's great. You may have some hybrid work from home, that's great. But there might not be a lot of upward mobility because we're not seeing the turn the churn. So there's, it's a mixed market. But if you're happy where you are, you're likely to stay happy because the job, the wage growth has been fairly robust.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

You know, I want to go back to where you began about youth unemployment or the idea that teens are having a harder time getting a job. Is this an issue of the jobs not being available or is this the an issue of the jobs they want not being available, that they get out of college, they want to go to an office and push the paper around rather than say, I'm sorry, go become a plumber or an electrician or build a data center if they want to

[Jonathan Ferro]

go to an office at all.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

For some of them, stay home and push papers and feed their pets. I'm just seriously curious about whether it's the skills mismatch here.

[Annmarie Horden]

Well, when I talk about early career, I'm talking about the earliest. I remember my summer job as a 16 year old at a pizza place with irregular hours, irregular play, but lots of cool points because I could feed my friends free food. Then I went to a library with really predictable hours in pay and the economists in me love that more. But we're not even seeing that. We're not even seeing the retail sector or the leisure or hospitality sector. Take very young workers and teach them about the labor market. There are things that you can only learn through experience. And even a 16, 18, 19 year old gains from being invited into a summer hire. We're not seeing it in the same levels. And then you get to, to slightly older workers, those who are in college who may be home for the summer Again, unemployment is higher for them now than we've seen in the last few years. And then you get to the college grads and we already know, we told that story, that it is harder to enter into the slave market. So our early career trajectory is stagnating along with this low hire, low fire labor market. It's something we should talk about more and not dismiss when we think of about the health of the labor market.

[Jonathan Ferro]

I wash dishes and refined my Italian speaking skills there. You got a deep understanding of cursing

[Lisa Abramowicz]

at Italian and and the necessary suds

[Annmarie Horden]

and an unappreciated skill in the labor market for sure.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Without a doubt. Should see how fast I'm at home now. Just clearing the kitchen. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app,

[Annmarie Horden]

The Bloomberg

[Lisa Abramowicz]

this Weekend podcast News, politics and the lighter side of Bloomberg.

[Annmarie Horden]

Forget healthspan.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Midlife men face pressure to extend hotspan.

[Bob Elliot]

Hotspan.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Hotspan.

[Bob Elliot]

Yes.

[Annmarie Horden]

So millennial men.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

You have to stay hot for like several more decades. David okay, so you need to work on this.

[Annmarie Horden]

I got to work on this. This is like, this is a really

[Bob Elliot]

not so subtle way of telling me that.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

The Bloomberg this Weekend Podcast. Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen.