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IBM Representative
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Chase Bank Representative
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Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Francis Donald of ABC writing for the past six years, US Consumers have borne the brunt of accumulating inflationary shocks. That chapter may now be ending. Frances joins us now for more. Frances, welcome to the program. What's changing?
Francis Donald
Well, the consumer is losing the capacity to absorb any additional shocks. That savings rate is down, real wages are now negative and the capacity to absorb that has existed in the entire post pandemic experience we believe is now fading. Now that doesn't necessarily mean the consumer is going to collapse. There's a very strong top 10% consumer. It just means that you're going to get more resistance going forward on passing through these additional price shocks to the consumer, businesses are going to face harder choices because if they continue to rely on the consumer to absorb these price shocks, they're either going to see the consumer say no thank you, some demand destruction, or you're going to see consumers that say that's fine but we're going to need higher wages. And that's why this tipping point is so critical and isn't necessarily reliant on your inflation forecast. It simply means that the psychology that has existed for over half a decade now in the macro environment may need to pivot and we could see it as early as three to four months from now.
Jonathan Ferro
The backdrop you described Francis, to me at least listening to it would make it difficult for any central bank to hike interest rates. What does it leave Kevin Walsh and his committee?
Francis Donald
Well, certainly very challenging. We're hearing a lot from central banks like the bank of Canada yesterday about the policy dilemma of what happens when you have higher prices that weigh on growth. But to me the real policy dilemma is that monetary policy is just not as functional and way more complicated. When you have a substantial K economy, you have a top end consumer that could withstand and probably needs higher interest rates and then you have a bottom of consumer that is going to go through some cyclical weakness and maybe even some structural weakness here. So how this central bank and what we hear from Kevin Warsh and how he thinks about this and this policy dilemma is going to be very important moving forward. Not just what action they take, but the philosophy around a growing divide within American consumers and how does monetary policy best serve them? I think an underappreciated question we should be asking Kevin Wash Francis, do you
Lisa Abramowicz
think that the ECB could potentially hike rates even if the US doesn't because of the K shaped economy, that there isn't such a market divide in the Euro region as there is in the United States?
Francis Donald
Well, this is the differentiator between the United States and there's a few of them. One is that big divide between that top 10% that has accumulated massive savings, massive amounts of benefits from financial markets doing well that we don't see in the rest of the developed world. That's true. But there's also a different growth dynamic that's happening here, which is the United States growth dynamic has been upheld by structural guardrails. The AI story, big government spending, that top 10%, very wealthy consumer. But now we're starting to see a broadening of that growth dynamic in the United States. Now some of it might be FIFA, some of it Might be some movement around tariffs, that IPA ruling coming down, some distortions. But there's enough happening in the US economy right now that suggests that their economy is actually becoming stronger while DM economies outside the United States are suffering under the weight of this energy shock. So certainly how central banks choose to respond to that will be interesting. But the divergence occurring between US growth which is being allowed to run hot, and the rest of the world that is challenged with the more of stagflationary dynamics is interesting and also a new dynamic than what we've seen over the past one to two years.
Lisa Abramowicz
Francis, you talk about the tipping point where either potentially you're going to start to see people pulling back because their savings are out or they're going to demand higher wages and get them is a really interesting one, especially as we get PPE later today and you have heard heard about profit margins expanding at a number of companies. Why won't workers go to their bosses and say the number of tokens you would need to pay for to do what I do is actually more than I'm getting paid, so pay me the amount that my tokens would be worth. I mean, why is this a value proposition, not going to necessarily lead to higher wages?
Francis Donald
Well, it's, it's actually interesting. My team this week has all been talking about token use, the cost of tokens. Are we going to reach that moment where we say actually there is a cost of labor and there's a cost of actually substituting out of labor as well? This is critical. And the most important data that we're watching right now is what are companies planning to do with pass through? So numbers like PPE are more important. Some small businesses intentions to pass through, but also consumers ability to absorb that. So the relationship between business costs, how they're using those very large corporate margins and the choices around them are going to be critical. From transcripts to survey data, this is a moment to really zero in on do businesses see the capacity to reduce costs in other areas and do they have the capacity? Are they seeing any signs that they're going to have to slow through the pass through? To me, that's the biggest Q3 question
Annmarie Horden
you talk about in your note. How businesses choose to carry. This will define the next chapter of the cycle when it comes to higher prices. Mohamed El Erin has talked about this in the past. Listen to what the C suite says. What are they telling you right now?
Francis Donald
They're still talking about pass through. They're talking about a slightly more fragile consumer, but particularly at the lower end of the sphere. So this is an early development. We're not quite there yet but in our view we only have a couple more months of savings with the consumer before you see start to see that consumer start of break down. So As I said Q3, Q4, watch for this transitional moment coming through. So far surveys are saying, well, we're getting a little bit more cautious but not quite there yet. Again we really try to downplay soft surveys typically but we're going to have to watch for some dynamic on that front more than we have in the past. It'll show up a little bit more before the hard data.
Annmarie Horden
Francis, where's the savings coming from? I remember during Christmas people were saying that the consumers are going out and they're spending their savings right now on and also so their tax, their higher tax refunds. And then it was early in this year they're spending that on higher electricity bills. Now everyone's saying they're spending that on higher gas prices. Haven't it, hasn't this dried up?
Francis Donald
It has. So we've seen we have near record low savings rate right now. That's a flow type of story. And this is exactly why it doesn't matter whether you believe inflation has peaked or not. The stock of available consumption now is now beginning to decline. If you go back several years, consumers had government transfers coming through from the pandemic. They had wages that were real in positive terms. They were accruing some benefits from that stronger stock market, but mostly to the top end. Those have now depleted. So again, we're not talking about a very bearish consumer outlook. There are still elements of strength. We are not talking about a complete collapse. We're talking about is that the baton has to be passed on price pass through from the consumer to businesses because businesses are going to see it in real time that the consumer says I cannot, I do not have the capacity to continue purchasing. And there's been such a psychological focus. We've become so accustomed to this idea that as inflation and prices rise from tariffs to geopolitical shocks that they roll through to consumers with a lag. This is the point that we're trying to make is that that six year paradigm may be on the edge of shifting in the other direction.
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
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IBM Representative
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Public.com Representative
IBM Support for the show comes from Public Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts? Yep. High yield cash? Yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by
Ted Mortenson
Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor Crypto Services by ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See Complete disclosure disclosures at public.com/disclosures.
Jonathan Ferro
And Mills of Raymond James writing the following if Democrats win a House and or Senate majority, expect calls for federal laws limiting data centers to be near the top of the agenda. Ed joins us now for more. Ed, welcome to the show. It's good to see you once again. Let's focus on this. How are things changing heading into the midterms?
Ed Mills
Well, we've argued at Raymond James that AI policy is probably the biggest market event from the midterm elections. You go back to last November, John. Democrats did really well in Virginia, in New Jersey, arguing that energy costs are too high, arguing against data centers. You're seeing Bernie Sanders against that. You see Hakeem Jeffries, the majority, the Democratic leader in the House, saying this will be a priority. They're trying to make those data centers the death star to the American public and say that's the problem. And then build upon that, trying to have New hawkishness on China and a whole bunch of new policies trying to kind of wrap this against Trump and against Republicans, especially if they win a majority. That's going to be the market concern.
Annmarie Horden
And what's actually going to be the policy when it comes to what some conservatives and free market individuals are saying, that this government trying to nationalize some of these companies.
Ed Mills
Yeah, well, this has been a weird push pull, Emory, because there has been a general angst about kind of government stakes in U.S. companies. But with President Trump, he's had the support of Republicans in Congress because they generally support him. I do look at the export program that should have some of their first announcements this month, which is going to get some government financing to back AI programs around the world. World. Maybe we take some of that financing that we're promoting and supporting some of these hyperscalers and using that as the hook to get that equity stake. I don't think we have that proposal that Bernie Sanders talks about that would require congressional action. That's not going to happen. I do think that because Donald Trump has created this precedent, Emory, it is more accepted than it otherwise would have ever been.
Annmarie Horden
Absolutely. He's also talking about a meeting that is unconfirmed, hasn't taken place yet. Why is he doing this? I mean, the companies are saying there's no meeting right now. Why is he just putting this out there?
Ed Mills
Well, Emery, he loves to be at the center of the most important debates. To the extent that he can be on the world stage with Putin or Xi or with the leaders of AI, especially as we're seeing some of these major IPOs in the pipeline, inserting himself into that policy is really important. Secondly, recently we got an executive order, and we're seeing a massive policy shift with President Trump, where at the beginning of his term, he did away with the Biden executive order that looked at things through a national security lens, he's starting to do that as well. And he's starting to engage here because he's not quite sure if the free release of these models is the right policy or should we have a government review? The more that he gets concerned with that, the more he's going to want to meet with these executives. The more this becomes a political problem, the more he's going to want to insert himself into that, trying to neutralize that policy.
Lisa Abramowicz
And to that point, is President Trump leading the charge for Republicans in terms of supporting AI development, or is he offsides with some of his Republican colleagues who are very concerned, concerned about this hearing from their constituents and Looking for more regulation, Lisa?
Ed Mills
It might be both. We've seen kind of a huge push at the beginning of this administration to change some of the policy towards China. Making an argument that unless we get these leading edge chips to China, China will develop their own. We had the deep seek moment. Then he started to say, all right, we could allow China to get more chips, the H200. Those haven't been developed or they haven't been sold to China at the levels he thought they would. And then on Capitol Hill, that's where you've gotten the pushback. We've had introduction of legislation, the Match act that has already cleared committee on a pretty decent vote that would restrict some of the semiconductors going to China, would restrict some of the semi cap equipment going to China. And Republicans are telling him you have gone too far in easing up some of these restrictions. We don't like the fact that you've got merged the national security and economic lanes. We understand that we need to win this air race. But giving it to China being too fast and loose on some of the national security issues, that is a concern for us. Especially if this is kind of getting deployed in the way in which we hear a lot of folks in the market talk about it.
Lisa Abramowicz
There's also a concern about the personnel and the brain trust close to the White House right now. There have been a number of departures. Thomas Lynd, the most recent one. Is that concerning? Given how quickly this is moving and the need for expertise to understand how it's working and what exactly the potential applications, potential danger, potential benefits could be.
Ed Mills
Yeah, we have a lot of turnover in government as a general source. It has been a uptick lately on some of the AI policy individuals. I've talked to a number of them after they have left or kind of when they've been doing these things. I've actually been relatively impressed with the AI policy infrastructure infrastructure that he had put into place. And I do think the fact that we had an AI action plan that came out pretty early in the administration, now we have an AI executive order. It's been an area that they've been focused on. Let's see what that staff gets replaced with. But so far it's been pretty robust. And when I've talked to that staff, one of the things that they've told me is a they want to flood the zone. They want to make US technology the default technology for the world. And just as the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, they want that US based token to be the reserve token. Of the world, and that's why they're trying to export this globally. If they win that, they tell me that's the most important national security issue that they can actually achieve in this administration. So I'm hoping they're right.
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
Public.com Representative
Support for the show comes from Public Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public you can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts? Yep. High yield cash? Yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by
Ted Mortenson
Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services By Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor Crypto Services By ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosure disclosures@public.com disclosures running a
Chase Bank Representative
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Jonathan Ferro
Ted Mortenson of Bad Writing the following the capital pull is large enough to pull some capital away from tech winners. Ted joins us now for more. Ted, it's good to see you sir. Welcome back to the program. Do we have space for all this equity?
Ted Mortenson
That's the million dollar question. I mean Oracle last night just popped 770 bill or 70 billion. If you look at Entropic, you look at Open air, you look at Space X, it's a big number. So portfolio managers are now struggling on how to allocate these new offerings going forward.
Jonathan Ferro
Ed, what are your thoughts? Ted, what are your thoughts on how we should deploy some of that capital from here? Should you be buying some of these names? Should you take it away from the winners? The the guys that have been running up so quickly over the past few months?
Ted Mortenson
I think this cycle is so powerful that you have to be involved in these. It's just a matter of how much and what the timing is. And I think from my standpoint, other sectors that don't have this macro associated with them, they need to be drained a little bit. And portfolio managers have to get into these names just because the forward weightings are going to be so dynamic that if they don't play they're going to underperform.
Lisa Abramowicz
Let's get a little more specific. Is there room for OpenAI and a potential IPO given the fact that they're cutting prices to get some of the customer base of Anthropic?
Ted Mortenson
My opinion is yes. If you look at what's happening just on this cycle and the amount of infrastructure pull in the software area is going to go along for the ride. Probably not upfront like the infrastructure is, but over the long term you're going to see a lot of free cash flow generated from these next generation software companies.
Lisa Abramowicz
Do you think there's going to be a bifurcation? We were talking about this Citadel note just moments ago where they're talking about a bifurcation, where you've got the frontier concentrated Among a few firms with balance sheets that are big enough to absorb it. And then you have others looking for commoditized models that are cheaper and can perform more basic tasks. Do you think that that's the world of AI that we're going to be living in for the next year or two?
Ted Mortenson
I think it's going to be very, very volatile. It's very hard to put your, your finger on how these models are actually going to settle out. There is a fair amount of deflation going on as it relates to models. If you listen to Palantir, for example, also on token pricing. I think we just got to let it play out and verse speculating the macro though from a, from a, a stack perspective is so disruptive that I think we've got to look at it more from a long term and react to the models as, as they materialize.
Annmarie Horden
Ted, you rightfully point out in your Note that tech CEO messaging is out of touch with 80% of the population. Is that why we have this letter overnight from Anthropic?
Ted Mortenson
I think so. I mean, you know, I wish some of the tech visionaries would, would really define not how their companies are doing, but how I will affect humanity in a positive way, whether it be productivity or instead of job loss, job expansion. I think when you look at the bottom 70% of the population, they're getting hit not only on inflation, but I think there's an angst that I could control their destiny from a work and quality of life issue. And this is happening so quickly that I think that leadership has to take it under their wing to actually communicate to that bottom 70% and not the top 30% percent.
Annmarie Horden
How are you thinking about what the US government is going to do, especially when President Trump is talking about maybe he does line up with Senator Bernie Sanders and they should be taking equity stakes.
Ted Mortenson
Oh boy, that's a loaded question. I'm not a big believer in government choosing winners and losers. I think it's, it's, there's going to be some mechanism optimism that if AI does materialize in a way that we are projecting that the, the bottom 70%, if you will, will be taken care of. I think it's conjecture at this point on what that model looks like, Ted.
Jonathan Ferro
I just wonder if we can turn that around just a touch. The government picking winners and losers. There is a loser right now and it appears to be open AI and they're picking the government. And Ted, I just wonder why I'm trying to work that out. What are they going to get here there's been this talk, reportedly in the last year as well, that they were talking about some individuals in the C suite that maybe the government should be involved to support any potential losses because this is getting too big to fail. TED how do you think about that dynamic?
Ted Mortenson
I tell you, it's moving so quickly that, to be honest with you, Jonathan, I don't think anybody really has, you know, the the real view here. I think there's got to be a lot of discussions, company to company and with the government to figure this out. It's moving so quickly and it is so disruptive that quite frankly, I don't think anybody really has the answers. I think we're trying to, we're trying to nail an answer that may not exist right now because of the pace of innovation. I think it's going to, it's going to play out over the course of the next couple of quarters and I think we just have to go with, with, with how the market develops and quite frankly, how we make the country as a whole function.
Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
IBM Representative
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Ed Mills
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Chase Bank Representative
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Francis Donald
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The June 11th, 2026 episode of Bloomberg Surveillance TV offers a rich exploration of the economic landscape, delving into US consumer resilience, central bank policy dilemmas, political implications for AI and data center regulation, and the ongoing evolution of tech sector capital flows. Hosts Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern conduct incisive interviews with Frances Donald (ABC), Ed Mills (Raymond James), and Ted Mortenson (Bad), surfacing key concerns from both the macroeconomic and policy fronts. The tone is direct, analytical, and candid, with memorable moments of forecast and critique relevant to market-watchers, investors, and policymakers.
Guest: Frances Donald, ABC
Timestamps: 01:40 – 09:03
Fading Consumer Resilience
Business Dilemmas & Price Pass-through
Central Bank Challenges
Divergence with Europe
Imminent Inflection Point
Guest: Ed Mills, Raymond James
Timestamps: 11:15 – 17:11
AI Policy as a Key Election Issue
Government Intervention and Export Policy
Trump Administration’s Fluid Approach
Republican Tensions
Talent Turnover and Global Tech Ambition
Guest: Ted Mortenson, Bad
Timestamps: 20:16 – 25:13
Tech IPO Frenzy: Capacity and Timing
Compelling Case for AI Involvement
Bifurcation and Market Structure
Societal Disconnect and Messaging Failure
AI Too Big To Fail?
This summary distills the rich, dynamic discussions from the June 11th, 2026 episode, highlighting the urgency and uncertainty facing today’s markets, policymakers, and technology leaders. The hosts' and guests’ candid exchanges provide valuable perspectives for all engaged in the ongoing transformation of the global economy.