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- [00:00]
CBOE Representative
Looking for more investing options? Meet cboe, the exchange that pioneered options trading. With exclusive trading products like VIX and SPX options, CBO can help you trade in any market environment. There are risks associated with CBOE Company products. Review the disclosures and disclaimers@cboe.com USDISclaimers so
- [00:16]
IBM Representative
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- [00:44]
Thorsten Slok
IBM Venture Global, we think about what
- [00:49]
CBOE Representative
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- [00:53]
Thorsten Slok
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- [01:18]
Ariana Salvatore
Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news.
- [01:27]
Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Joe I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, stocks hovering
- [01:53]
Danny
at fresh records as investors await the first policy decision under a new regime. Victoria Fernandez of Cross Global Investments writing, we believe there is still room to run even if we get higher rates. As long as earnings and margins remain strong, the market can digest a rotation of leadership. Victoria joins us now. Victoria, where else do you see this market having more room to run?
- [02:17]
Victoria Fernandez
Yeah, well, I think when you look at the rotation that we've seen, we saw those high momentum, those high beta names really come back over the last week. And so other areas have started to pick up a little bit. You saw it in some transportation, you saw it in health care, you saw it in some energy names. Obviously we've seen energy names come back a little bit based on the information of the last few days, but it's still not in an oversold position. I think at this point in time, what you're looking for is maybe not necessarily specific sectors. The names that are going to be able to run are those that have those positive factors like good free cash flow, good profitability like return on equity, looking at strong earnings yield.
- [02:59]
Thorsten Slok
Right.
- [02:59]
Victoria Fernandez
Not just earnings growth, those high growth names, but relating that to P E. So I do think there's some opportunities within all of the sectors but on a broad base you are seeing some of those that have been hardest hit that are now in uptrends starting to make a comeback here. And I think that's important when we look at the breadth of this market and how far this bull market can actually go.
- [03:21]
Lisa Abramowicz
Well, Victoria, one of the things that you point out that one should be cautious on, it's clearly not outright bearish by any means, but is the consumer, what are you seeing that's leading you just to be a little bit more tepid about the state of the American consumer?
- [03:35]
Victoria Fernandez
Yes. You know Danny, it's really amazing when you think of how well the consumer has held up over the last months as we've been very concerned about things that are happening. And you're looking at wages that are really stagnating. You're looking at the difference between real wage growth and real consumption that continues to widen as savings continues to come down. We had a little bit of improvement in consumer confidence, but it still still very low. We're back below levels that we saw in Covid on some of those things. And small businesses that's to me a big yellow flag. You've got the NFIB report that came out last week that really is not showing tremendous signs of improvement there. They are still struggling and still concerned. So as we get, you know, additional signs of layoffs, we had more layoff reports reported this morning. I think that tells us the consumer is going to continue to be a little bit cautious in what they're doing. Especially especially with some of the liquidity efforts we've seen earlier in this year start to pull back. Like I said, wages stagnating and savings being depleted.
- [04:40]
IBM Representative
Right.
- [04:40]
Lisa Abramowicz
I mean we heard the news overnight that BlackRock is going to cut about 200 rolls worldwide. I think maybe is perhaps what you're talking about. But Victoria, what do you do with that? I mean AI is still hot, these companies are still spending a lot. Even if there is some softness in hiring. How do you factor that into your trades at the moment?
- [05:00]
Victoria Fernandez
Yeah, I think when you're looking at these companies, obviously Capex is really driving the productivity that we're seeing and we're hoping Productivity is going to be supportive of earnings. So I think you go back to some of those elements we were talking about a minute ago. I think you look at what are the companies that give us those high earnings yield. I mean look at a company like Video, you can still add to your tech positions. Nvidia is doing well. Fortinet look at cybersecurity. Again, high earnings yield. So good earnings growth but a lower P E relative to other companies within its sector and within the market. Even Adobe is fitting within that category and profitability as well. So I do think there's some things you can do within these sectors and that's how we're looking at where to invest for our clients along with adding a little bit of that defensive component because of our concerns. You can add a little bit to fixed income here because I do think when you look at the short end of the curve you guys were talking about a minute ago, two years are still over 50 basis points above the low end of Fed fund. So as some of that starts to get priced out, the shorter end of the curve could be advantageous as well.
- [06:06]
Danny
Victoria, of course we have Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. We just heard from Betsy Du. Former Fed governor says Kevin Wash is going to be hawk and she's expecting a complete rewrite of the statement. What are you expecting from him?
- [06:20]
Victoria Fernandez
Yeah, I was surprised to hear her say that she expects a complete rewrite. I do think we'll see some changes. Obviously everyone's looking to have that easing bias removed and I think that's somewhat a given at this point. What I'm going to be looking at is what is being told around how communication is going to happen in the future. I think that is going to be the key point that we're looking at here. Does Wash even give us a dot on the acp? I'll be very curious to see if that happens. I don't think he's going to replace Myron's dot. Where is he going to land on there or does he give us one? And what is he going to say around press conferences going forward? How much Fed governors are going to be able to go out and talk about things? To me, it's some of those changes along with potential balance sheet changes that we're going to be watching.
- [07:05]
Danny
How do you expect the market maybe to test him? When we see the market test new Fed chairs, But this is a known figure. He's been around his establishment figure for years. Do you think the market's going to test him?
- [07:17]
Victoria Fernandez
You know, they say they're always tested and we've seen it historically. Maybe the test is going to be sitting here where we are right now, where labor market is actually holding its own somewhat right now. So it's not giving you really a case to ease, which we assume he's coming in with maybe a little bias towards wanting to ease but at the same time having this sticky inflation. I don't think inflation is going to come down just because we get a deal signed with Iran potentially over the next few weeks. I think some of that inflation is really built in there. We saw it even before the Iran war started and I think it will continue. I mean you look at super core CPI over the last three months, you're running at a five and a half percent rate on an annual basis. So I think there's. That may be his test. We've got that sticky inflation, you know, labor somewhat holding steady. So with his easing bias we'll. Will he actually be more of a hawk? I think that's what we have to wait and see.
- [08:11]
Lisa Abramowicz
Or maybe he already got the test with just a market that started to remove from it. Victoria, I mean maybe that's a help for him at this moment. I was talking to Anne Marie about this idea before that there does seem to be sort of a disconnect of what the bond market and the stock market has been doing in the recent week. Both of them clearly are pricing in something of a piece premium. But the equity market seems to have gone further, almost at a high when we haven't quite removed any. We haven't quite totally remove the hiking bias from what the futures probability are pricing in from this Fed. What do you make of that slight disconnect between the two markets?
- [08:48]
Victoria Fernandez
Yeah, it's interesting. So I actually manage fixed income strategies. I mean I grew up in the fixed income world and we tend to be a little more cautious and the things that we do and I think that's what the bond market is doing here. They're saying, look, we're not blowing out, you know, anything on credit spreads. We're not saying there's this tremendous issue that we have to look at no credit concerns right now. But we also are not so sure that inflation is going to come down very quickly. We're not so sure that this deal or memorandum of understanding is going to flow through and help earnings like the equity market is tending to just be all in on that thought process. So I just think the bond market is being a little bit more cautious. It's a wait and show me market right now and that's what the numbers are showing. I think as we go over the next couple of weeks, if we get more concrete answers, you might see the bond market respond a little bit more.
- [09:40]
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
- [09:48]
CBOE Representative
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- [10:19]
IBM Representative
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- [10:48]
CBOE Representative
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- [12:06]
Danny
Investors awaiting Kevin Wash his first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair as roaring inflation adds to uncertainty over the direction of rates. Thorsten Slok of Apollo Riding with geopolitical risk easing and Fed Chair Kevin Walsh focus on simplifying Fed communication, the number of words in the FOMC statement can move down to levels seen under Alan Greenspan. Torsten joins us now. Okay, so a statement comes out. Do you need to read it first or just do a quick word count?
- [12:33]
Thorsten Slok
I would certainly need to read it first because the key issue here is of course, what style of communication are we going to get and in particular, what is the forward guidance? Is there any forward guidance? Is he going to say that we do not like forward guidance? This is still a very, very unclear area in terms of what is the communication style and what is Kevin was going to do in terms of what is he going to say?
- [12:53]
Danny
At the press conference, former Fed Governor Betsy Duke was just on with us and she was talking about how there could be a complete rewrite of the statement, not just a little tweak of the easing bias. Is that what you're expecting as well?
- [13:05]
Thorsten Slok
I think that is something that we should expect as one of the outcomes. We just don't know. So that's the reason why the market, of course, has been used to having very well anchored expectations around the dot plot. The dot plot has been around now for 15 years, almost. The ACP, meaning the forecast, was around for almost 20 years. So most people in financial markets have grown up with very anchored expectations about the economic outlook and very anchored expectations about what the Fed will do. And this discussion about is there an anchor? Is there not an anchor? Of course it's good to have an anchor in the sense that that's clear, then we, everyone knows where we're going. But at the same time, if the world changes, then it's not good to have an anchor. And this is the debate up on the scale, namely, do we want to have an anchor anchor or do we not want to have an anchor that will give more flexibility to the FOMC
- [13:47]
Lisa Abramowicz
in this very moment? If we remove some of that, we remove some of the forward guidance, does that not, all things considered, make us a little bit more hawkish because we don't have that residual easing bias that had been there before?
- [13:59]
Thorsten Slok
Yes, and actually important if we begin to think about the discussion around rates, because Kevin Wallace has also been focusing on shrinking the balance sheet and a compromise could potentially be that, well, we're not going to change much communication on rates, but maybe saying that the balance sheet will be smaller is implicitly also going to be a tightening of policy. So it all depends on where the committee stands and where they discuss today and what their outcomes is in terms of how should they communicate, how are they going to signal to your point, Danny, that there is still some problems with inflation being too high, we still have a strong labour market, which all argues for that the Fed should be tightening financial conditions.
- [14:34]
Lisa Abramowicz
Do you think this is a Chair Warsh, who will want to sort of galvanize a consensus, consensus, as Powell had, and how challenging will that be if so, if he does want to implement something, in his words, of a regime
- [14:45]
Thorsten Slok
change for the Fed, Kevin Wallace knows what he's doing. But I think what is a very important challenge, of course for him, is that if he wants any changes, basically he needs to have the other 11 members on the FOMC, the voting members, on board with whatever he wants to change. So that's why it must be clear also for him, he needs to get them on his side in terms of any decision made, because always decisions about not only rates, also about QE duty, whatever needs to be changed in terms of policy. There are 12 voting members and they vote about what do they want to change. And therefore the number of dissents also potentially becomes important. When we get the statement tomorrow, do
- [15:20]
Danny
you think we get less Fed speak then with Kevin Warsh as the Fed chair?
- [15:24]
Thorsten Slok
Well, that's really challenging because telling the regional Fed presidents that they're not allowed to talk more, even the governors that they're not talking about more, that's just not possible. And given we have had a history now of a lot of communication, that means also the market has been putting more weight on the Fed chair, and I think the market will continue to put most weight on the Fed chair.
- [15:41]
Danny
And don't you think we've seen more of this robust debate and communication because of Steve Myron, who was a Trump appointee? So it would be pretty odd if Kevin Morse came in and said, actually stop talking as much.
- [15:53]
Thorsten Slok
Yeah, because we've also had some, of course, to your point here, we have some quite diverging views. Views in terms of the dot plot. And this is of course also why the dot plot creates sometimes a bit more confusion. Yes, it may be anchoring expectations, but the standard deviation of those expectations also get a lot of attention. In other words, how divergent are the views in terms of what's going to happen in the future? And we don't know which dot is the Fed chair thought. So that also makes it more complicated in terms of the dots coming out actually going to be helpful in the sense of anchoring expectations, or do they raise more questions about the answer uncertainty of what is a disagreement on the committee.
- [16:25]
Danny
There's also debate right now whether or not Kevin Marsh puts a dot on
- [16:29]
Thorsten Slok
the plot yet because he could also decide to this would be highly unusual of course that will of course decide. He could decide to say I'm not going to put in a dot. He could also decide to say I'm not going to submit my ACP forecast, meaning his forecast for he thinks the economy is going that would be pretty dramatic. So if the goal here for him remember the most important job for the Fed chair is really to create consensus about a decision. All books written by previous Fed chairs, they all all emphasize that a key part of the job is to basically call around to all the voting FOMC members and also the non voting members and say what do you think should be the outcome of this meeting? What is your view? And try to come up with some solution and try to come up with some path where he can get a majority and ideally a big majority for the decision that they're going to take.
- [17:10]
Lisa Abramowicz
It's complicated, but does this week's news on Iran, a deal, a memorandum of understanding being signed on Friday make things less complicated for Fed Chair Wash?
- [17:18]
Thorsten Slok
Absolutely, because one key issue was that inflation is still at roughly 3% in copies and co CPI and the problem is when inflation is 3 and the Fed's target is 2 then now we have at least one good news is of course that we have energy prices coming down but we still have a fairly strong economy getting tailwinds from the boom, getting tailwinds from the one big bit of a bill. And we also at the same time have upward pressure on inflation from tariffs still hanging over and putting upward pressure as several Fed posts have been suggesting. So the key answer to your question is he absolutely is absolutely help. He's helped by the fact that energy prices are moving low.
- [17:50]
Lisa Abramowicz
Yeah, he's helped. But again to your point towards and there's inflation coming from other parts of this economy. So if he wants to lean more dovish if he wants to kind of like fulfill the promise that he had been talking to from Trump, what parts of this parts of this economy can he point to to say we can still get a cut this year?
- [18:06]
Thorsten Slok
Yeah. The double edged sword is of course that when energy prices go down then we spend less money on energy and we spend more money on something else. And given that literally all high frequency indicators are still very strong, still very strong data from the tsa. How many people travel in airplanes, still very strong data on the weekly data from Redbook on how many people are consuming stuff at Wal Mart and Target and TJ Max. And we also have still very strong data when it comes to hotel demand on a weekly basis. There just is very little signs that no signs essentially at this point of the economy slowing down. So too high inflation, strong labor market. That argues of course for the Fed needs to move towards a more hawkish stance.
- [18:40]
Jonathan Ferro
Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
- [18:48]
CBOE Representative
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- [19:48]
Danny
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Ariana Salvatore
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Danny
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- [21:21]
Danny
Ariana Salvatore, the head of US Public policy strategy at Morgan Stanley, joins us now for more. Thank you so much for joining us. How important do you think it was for the president to get this done now before we go into peak driving season in the summer, before everyone starts traveling for July 4th and then, of course, the midterms?
- [21:37]
Ariana Salvatore
Yeah, absolutely. When we think about Trump's incentive structure, you can't discount the importance of gasoline prices. Right. But when we think about this in the election, we think about this in the context of affordability. Cost of living is the number one issue for voters. Right. Aside from foreign policy, even the Iran war being largely net unfavorable for voters. And on that front, we think what matters more than the actual gasoline price and the absolute level is the rate of change. So heading into peak driving season, coming into the fall, if you're seeing gas prices actually on the decline, that might set up a different environment for Republicans come November. The you would have if the election were today. Right. So that's what we think about. But again, it's one piece of the puzzle. We also think about things like consumer sentiment. We look at the generic ballot, we look at prediction markets. All of these are kind of painting the mosaic of what to expect.
- [22:23]
Danny
When you look at polling and you look at surveys, you see a consumer that's frustrated. At the same time, the data shows they've been relatively resilient.
- [22:32]
Ariana Salvatore
Right.
- [22:32]
Danny
How do you, you know, square that circle?
- [22:35]
Ariana Salvatore
Yeah. So when we think about the consumer and the outlook there, our economists are forecasting a stepped down on a relative basis to last year. Right. So just about 1.8%. That's still, you know, okay. Levels. It's not as healthy as it was last year per se, but things aren't falling off a cliff. And I think that's from a political perspective, the most important point to underscore. Right. So this is not the type of environment that's going to necessitate another reconciliation package, some sort of direct relief to consumers, something like that. That's not really entering the conversations in Congress as far as we can tell. For now, what we tend to look at is, like I said, aside from consumer sentiment, things like the generic ballot and how consumers are feeling about the incumbent party in Congress. And there what we see is that Democrats are still up about seven points. Notably, that's actually pretty similar to how they were doing at this time in Trump's first term. The key difference of course, is that President Trump's approval rating is almost 10 points lower now than it was back then. So when I look a little bit deeper into that data, what you see is that there has been a big swing away from Democrats in terms of their favorability. So not just the approval rating of sitting lawmakers, but also the favorability of the party brand as a whole.
- [23:40]
Thorsten Slok
Right.
- [23:40]
Ariana Salvatore
Relative to 2018. So that's an important consideration, too, when we think about the outcome here. Obviously, historical precedent is strong, suggests that the president's party is likely to lose seats. But I think that the outcomes here are still kind of uncertain when we think about it in that context.
- [23:53]
Lisa Abramowicz
Well, I was going to say, and this is something you've noted as well, that prediction markets, specifically Polly Morgan, has an 83% odds that the Democrats take the House. How offsides is that then?
- [24:03]
Ariana Salvatore
So, I mean, look, the House and the Senate are completely different animals when we think about this. So if we look at the House, like I said, historical precedent is strong. The President's party almost always loses seats. I'd say the bar is pretty low. Right. So Speaker Johnson there is working with a very thin majority. So I think House odds, you know, being being greater than 50% certainly makes sense when we think about the Senate. Very different. On, obviously not all the seats are up the map. There is just extremely challenging for Democrats. They have to win races that are in states that Trump won in the past election. You know, it's not necessarily a kind of a done deal. Republicans are also coming into that, which with a bigger majority than than they've had in previous elections, too.
- [24:40]
Lisa Abramowicz
Again, something you point out, which I feel like is apt and not discussed enough, that a lot of the things that have mattered for this market, things like tariffs, are within the President's purview. So how should investors, investors think if there is any sort of change, be it in the House or the Senate, how much it matters for markets?
- [24:55]
Ariana Salvatore
So look, if you're a macro investor or an equity investor, the answer to that question is going to be different. So when I think about this from a macro perspective, to your point, tariffs, deregulation, immigration controls, you know, foreign, foreign policy, geopolitics, all that is in the President's control. And I think that kind of policy risk is likely to stay elevated throughout, you know, the next couple of years, too. When I think about this from a legislative perspective, what really matters here, I think there is some nuance. And I think in particular, if you look at things like health care and consumer sectors, that's where the difference comes in because we had the one big beautiful bill act legislated last summer that included some spending cuts, right, that are going to take effect 27 and 28. Now I'm of the view that if you see Democrats win both the House and the Senate and they have what I call a cohesive majority, so they're able to to unify and coalesce around some of the key policy asks, they may be able to work with the President on delaying, softening or extending those cuts. Now that limits the downside for some stocks in consumer and health care spaces that are anticipating a fall off in participation in programs like SNAP and Medicaid.
- [25:58]
Danny
Arianna when it comes to affordability, the president when he was asked about negotiating Iran, says he doesn't think of American's financial situation. The context was I don't think of them when I'm thinking of a nuclear Iran, but that's going to be clipped and played. I was recently with the President. I asked him about getting into a Knicks game, the game he went to, the getting in price was $8,000 for nosebleed tickets and he said basically that's life and it's semi free on tv. Are these messages going to land with consumers?
- [26:23]
Ariana Salvatore
What we're seeing across the board is exactly that point, right? I think that's reflected in the President's approval rating kind of taking a bit of a dip over the past few months. But affordability policy has really been top of mind since I would say January of this year. The reality is there's a lot that can be said about affordability policies. Very little that can be done when we think about the total universe of what's available and then what's kind of quick to implement, what can impact voters ahead of November. There's not that much out there. So we think about something like housing policy. You know, we have the Road to Housing act getting kind of ping pong back and forth between the House and Senate right now. That's not something that's going to really, you know, implement and matter for voters ahead of November. The easiest biggest lever the president has to pull is on tariffs and I think you could maybe see something on that come July.
- [27:06]
Jonathan Ferro
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App Foreign
- [27:29]
Thorsten Slok
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Thorsten Slok
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IBM Representative
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Danny
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