Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 17th, 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 17th, 2026 — Episode Summary

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance, hosted by Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern, dives into the latest developments in finance, economics, and geopolitics. The episode focuses on three key themes:

• Shifting expectations in the bond market due to perceptions of peaking inflation and Federal Reserve signaling
• The geopolitical implications and market impact of a reported US-Iran war and forthcoming agreement
• The communication style and decision-making priorities of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
  Interviews include MUFG’s George (Senior Analyst), Stephen Cook (Council on Foreign Relations, Mideast Expert), and former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Bond Market Outlook & Fed Policy Under Chair Kevin Warsh

(01:51 – 07:42)

• High Watermark for Rates
  George (MUFG) suggests rates have likely hit their peak for 2026, with inflation fears overstated and containment in oil prices even amid supply disruptions.

  "We probably have seen the high prints for rates for a whole host of reasons...there's not really an inflation problem. Look at wages, look at the way the jobs market's behaving. It's still low paying jobs." — George (02:16)

• Potential Summer Rally in Bonds
  With the removal of hikes from the table and muted inflation pressures, George anticipates a “summer of the bond market.”

  • Key variables: Fed’s dot plot, Kevin Warsh’s approach, and uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts.

  "If inflation truly has peaked, if oil has peaked, if rates have peaked, then you’re going to see you can open up a window to cut rates at the end of the year." — George (03:27)

• Labour Market and Rate Cuts
  Skepticism about the accuracy of labor data—revisions are common—and George notes that cuts do not require weakness, just the perception of slowing strength.

  "It doesn’t have to necessarily weaken... it just has to be a combination of it’s not as strong as people think and the inflation story probably has peaked." — George (04:34)

• Fed’s New Neutral & Market Impact
  Anticipates the Fed will focus more on clarity and less on forward guidance under Warsh, with gradual movement toward a new 'neutral' rate.

  "It’s more about your understanding of neutral... Are they going to move that up now at Kevin Warsh, his first meeting? That would make no sense." — George (05:14)

• Equities & Bonds Correlation
  Discussion about direct correlation between stocks and bonds—unusual in historical context—and the possibility that a bond rally would also support equities, especially technology.

  "If the momentum continues and stocks continue to make new highs... then you’re building in financial conditions easing, which takes pressure off the Fed to do anything." — George (06:28)

2. US-Iran War & Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)

(10:08 – 14:59)

• Alleged US-Iran Agreement: Details & Critique
  Stephen Cook, CFR, argues that the draft deal heavily favors Iran, with significant concessions such as:

  • Retention of uranium enrichment rights
  • Immediate resumption of oil exports
  • Only temporary lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade (60 days with future surcharges)
  • Lack of constraints on proxy groups or ballistic missile development

  "The Iranians will retain their right to enrich uranium...Basically, the United States walks away from this with a lot of tactical battlefield achievements, but what can only be described as a strategic defeat." — Stephen Cook (10:28)

• Israel’s Stance & Regional Security
  Israel is not in agreement with a permanent end to fighting, refusing to allow Tehran a veto over its security. The risk of renewed Strait of Hormuz closures remains a powerful leverage point for Iran.

  "The Israelis maintain that they will not give Tehran a veto over their security. But the Israelis are in a very difficult position..." — Stephen Cook (12:19)

• Middle Eastern Response: Strategic Shifts
  UAE and Saudi Arabia are actively planning to reduce dependence on the Strait. Smaller Gulf states, however, remain vulnerable due to geographic constraints.

  "The Emiratis and the Saudis certainly have options to build their way out of the Strait of Hormuz. The Qataris, the Kuwaitis, the Bahrainis absolutely do not..." — Stephen Cook (13:33)

• Likelihood and Duration of the Deal
  Skepticism exists about the durability of the deal and whether the US will maintain its "red lines."

  "I think it can take quite some time. Unless the president really goes back on his red lines, there’s every indication to suggest that he will." — Stephen Cook (14:40)

3. Fed Communications Philosophy under Kevin Warsh

(17:31 – 22:58)

• Less Forward Guidance, More 'Mystique'
  Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren expects Warsh to reduce forward guidance and encourage FOMC members to speak less, focusing only on factual statements.

  “He’s probably going to redraft the statement so that it’s very factual and doesn’t provide any forward guidance.” — Eric Rosengren (18:02)

• Dot Plot in Question
  Discussion whether the economic projections and ‘dot plot’ may be deemphasized or eliminated under Warsh, making it harder for markets to anticipate direction.

  "I think he’s probably going to seek to deemphasize the summary of economic projections and the dot plot, with the hope that eventually it goes away." — Eric Rosengren (19:09)

• Communication Challenges
  Rosengren expresses skepticism about a return to Greenspan/Volcker ‘mystique’:

  "I don’t think we can go back to where we were under Greenspan or Paul Volcker. Kevin’s thinking may evolve on this over time." — Eric Rosengren (22:28)

• Risks of Reduced Communication
  Rosengren worries that less Fed transparency may increase market uncertainty and volatility rather than stability:

  “If there really is regime change, then you need to explain what you're doing and why... particularly if it's different than what the previous two or three chairs have been doing.” — Eric Rosengren (21:57)

---

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• George (MUFG), on inflation fears:
  "We've been skeptical of the move in general, and inflation has largely come from the oil shock... but in general, there's not really an inflation problem." (02:16)
• Stephen Cook (CFR) on Iran deal:
  "The United States walks away from this with a lot of tactical battlefield achievements, but what can only be described as a strategic defeat." (10:28)
• Eric Rosengren on Fed transparency:
  "I think the challenge... is both the public and investors are now very well informed about what the Fed does. So I don't think we can go back to where we were under Greenspan or Paul Volcker." (22:28)

---

Timestamps of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:51–07:42| George (MUFG) on bond rally, inflation, and Fed policy | | 10:08–14:59| Stephen Cook (CFR) on Iran war and US–Iran deal dynamics | | 17:31–22:58| Eric Rosengren on Fed communication under Kevin Warsh |

---

Tone and Language

The episode maintains Bloomberg’s signature, direct yet analytical tone. The hosts and guests are frank, occasionally skeptical, and focused on providing actionable insights rather than hype.

---

Conclusion

The June 17, 2026 episode delivers a timely breakdown of pivotal shifts in the bond market and Fed communication regime, linked closely to real-time geopolitical events in the Middle East. Listeners are left with a sense of uncertainty about the durability of peace in the Gulf and clarity on the nuanced, less transparent, and potentially more volatile era ushered in by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Transcript

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[Jonathan Ferro]

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast Joe I'm Jonathan Ferro along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Horden. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City. We are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, George can

[Lisa Abramowicz]

call this of MUFG writing inflation concerns have been misplaced and rates may have seen the high prints for 26. That plus war talking hikes off the table is about to unleash a bond rally. George joins us here this morning. George, great to see you.

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

Great to see you. Happy Friday.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Happy Friday. If you celebrate a real question about how much this bond market can rally given some of the inflationary pressures that yes, are tied to oil but also to some other issues as well.

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

Yeah, look I think we are entering a summer of the bond market. I think we probably have seen the high prints for rates for a whole host of reasons. Look, oil prices even in the midst of like literally a billion plus barrels of less production getting through the Strait of Hormuz managed to stay contained. Right? So like this idea that you're going to see like a second wave of higher oil prices. I don't buy that. We don't buy that. We've been skeptical of the move in general and inflation has largely come from the inflation from the oil shock and then some second order around the facts around, you know, some, some sort of pricing surcharges that were added to core prices. But in general there's not a really an inflation problem. Look at wages, look at the way that the jobs market's behaving. It's still low paying jobs. You're not seeing the sort of impulse of inflation. We think that we've kind of seen the highs rates.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

So we'll get to the economic discussion later because there's a lot of divergence even within pros about exactly whether all of that is true in terms of wages and some other aspects. Do you think that Kevin was truly can unleash the summer of bonds given the fact that ultimately he's really squaring off against credibility on one hand and the overhang of what could be coming from the White House on the other?

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

Look, I think everyone has to temper their enthusiasm, including myself because we have. Let's see what happens with the MOU and if that gets gets done is a done deal by tomorrow I think. Right. So let's see, I mean we're Friday, let's see what happens there. But I think you know, we're going to start off at 2 o' clock into 230. Right, 2 o'. Clock. We're going to see. Did a Kevin Warsh participate in the dot plot submission process? Like that's going to be a big deal and like what are the dots telling us? Is there going to be like a removal of the easing bias at the first blush I think this is going to be a kind of gradual toe in to becoming more like a changes at the Fed. But we don't see a drastic change of the Fed starting off today. But we do think that this is going to he's are pivoting the Fed differently and that's going to rearrange the focus and less forward guidance and a shift from focusing on other policies towards rate policy. I think that if inflation truly has peaked, if oil has peaked, if rates have peaked, then you're going to see you can open up a window to cut rates at the end of the year.

[Annmarie Horden]

Does the labor market need to weaken further? I mean it's not weak now, but does it need to weaken for him to be able to cut interest rates?

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

I mean I think we have to Realize we have to look back and see if the labor data actually is honest. We've had two years in a row of massive revisions every single year. The later we get in the year we'll get more clarity on the true health of the jobs market. So it doesn't have to necessarily weaken. I think it just has to be a combination of it's not strong as people think it is and to the inflation story probably has peaked. It gives a window for the Fed

[Annmarie Horden]

to cut, but they're not going to get back to the 2% target this year. So what is going to be the catalyst for them to really have that confidence given the fact that there are a lot of members on the committee that are concerned that basically inflation prices are still too high and the labor market's not weak enough to have this bias?

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

Look, there's a whole host of things, I mean, depending on how you look at the data and you look at real pure cause, you can get down towards, you know, middle mid twos by the end of the year and into projecting into 2027, you can start to get into the twos. So I think it's not about and plus, by the way, we've we the Fed's eased the last two years with inflation well above their target. Right. So it's more about what's under your understanding of neutral. And that's why I think today's a We get the dot plot, most likely how the dot plot looks like and then what is the glide path from this year which we think they're going to remove the one potential cut that was in the last forecast or projections and what's, what is the path towards neutral? Because like they've been very gingerly moving up neutral rate around 3 1/8. Are they going to move that up now? At Kevin Wash, his first meeting, that would make no sense. So like they had to get down to neutral or redefine what neutral is.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Well, that's something people are looking for. What is inflation? If you could choose your inflation, is it an inflation target that we care more about? I'll choose one inflation target. How about anyone who's invested either in cursor or Space X and the new billionaires that have been minted, there's some inflation there. Given the fact that markets have absolutely been on a tear, how does that fact factor into the Fed's assessment of current conditions?

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

I mean look, it's the going is great. When it's going. The question is how does it look like at the end of the year we've had moments where we have these massive euphoric moves like we're in right now and then they peter out and they burn out. So the question is, if the momentum continues and stocks continue to make new highs. Yes. Then you're building in financial conditions easing, which takes pressure off the Fed to do anything or like, at least in their calculus, it would be less of a need to ease. But that's really a judgment call on where you think markets are going to be at the end of the year.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

If you put this another way, is the summer of the bond going to be also the summer of the stock? Because we've seen correlations between stocks and bonds. Bonds essentially go to one, right? They've been directly correlated rather than inversely correlated as they have been historically. Why wouldn't any additional bond rally just continue to fuel an even bigger move in the equity market?

[George (Guest/Analyst)]

I mean for like the long duration type sectors like technology, it probably would, right? I mean until something breaks that correlation down completely, it probably would have kind of a self reinforcing mechanism. But I do think that, you know, as we get towards the end of the year and we realize that our more optimistic outlook, collectively the market's more optimistic view on the macro is proven wrong, you're going to see the bond market end up winning out versus the stock market.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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[Lisa Abramowicz]

Stephen Cook of the Council on Foreign Warren Relations writing, clearly, the President was done and grabbed the deal before him. He was going to spin it as a victory, but it heavily favors Iran. This raises the question, why did we even go to war? Stephen joins us now for more. Stephen, why do you say that this is giving a win to Iran given that we don't really know all the details yet?

[Stephen Cook]

Well, we have a fairly good sense of what is going to be in this deal based on what's been leaking out to to Bloomberg, to Arabia, English and a variety of other news outlets. And what we've seen so far suggests that the Iranians will retain their right to enrich uranium. They'll be able to export oil immediately, the blockade will be lifted, although the Iranians are saying that there will be freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but only for 60 days, and then they will levy a surcharge on transit through that waterway. Then of course, there's nothing in the document about dismantling proxies. Yes, giving up the highly enriched uranium, but if they can enrich uranium, they can replace that stock talk of highly enriched uranium. Basically, the United States walks away from this with a lot of tactical battlefield achievements, but what can only be described as a strategic defeat.

[Annmarie Horden]

Stephen I also noticed that there is no language when it comes to Iran's ballistic missile program. Has the Trump administration given up their three red lines, which have always been for years, nuclear ballistic missiles and money to proxies?

[Stephen Cook]

Yes, indeed, they have given it up. There is nothing that we know of regarding ballistic missiles. The United States and the Israelis did a lot of damage to the ballistic missile program. But the fear is, is that all of these resources that can flow into Iran, including the revenue from immediately exporting oil, can be devoted to reconstructing their capacity to build ballistic missiles. And it is one of the biggest ballistic missile programs in the world.

[Annmarie Horden]

So the first point, and Tyler brought this up, according to the text Bloomberg has its hand on when it comes to the MoU means that this would include a permanent end to the war on all fronts, quote, including Lebanon. Is Israel in agreement with this?

[Stephen Cook]

Absolutely not. The Israelis maintain that they will not give Tehran a veto over their security. But the Israelis are in a very difficult position. If Hezbollah attacks and the Israelis respond in a neighborhood of Beirut, for example, the Iranians will threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz once again, putting tremendous pressure on the global economy, as we've seen over the course of this war. But Israelis are in an election season and Prime Minister Netanyahu is not going to give up the fight in Lebanon, which is actually quite popular among Israelis, as President Trump's popularity among Israelis has dropped precipitously in recent weeks.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

There is a sense right now that everyone's buying time. It seems like the Iranian regime is buying time to try to survive. And it seems like some Middle Eastern nations are buying time to create alternative routes from the Strait of Hormuz to export some of their supplies. The UAE this morning saying that they're planning to cut the dependency dependency on the Strait of Hormuz to zero, saying that even if the Strait of Hormuz does reopen, nothing will change that plan. How much is this going to be an interim type deal for months, maybe even years, trying to get enough through? Well, nations in the region figure out workarounds.

[Stephen Cook]

Yeah, I think that's a very important point. The Emiratis and the Saudis certainly have options to build their way out of the Strait of Hormuz. The Qataris, the Kuwaitis, the Bahrainis absolutely do not have the ability to do what the Saudis and the Emirates just by geography. So there'll be some countries that will be able to see this as an interim deal. And there are others that will put pressure on it in order to see through so that they can navigate through the Strait of Hormuz. Their economies are absolutely dependent upon it. There is a big question, though, whether we will get beyond this 60 day period of the MOU. There's lots to be worked out here. Especially on the nuclear front. That took the Obama administration a couple of years. The president is suggesting that this is going to happen in 60 days, but overall I think you're quite right, Lisa. The Strait of Hormuz is something that is now seen as a problem for countries in the region, and they're going to do everything possible they can to to ease their reliance on it.

[Annmarie Horden]

20 months? The JCPOA took 20 months. Stephen, how long do you think this could take?

[Stephen Cook]

Well, I think it can take quite some time. Unless the president really goes back on his red lines, there's every indication to suggest that he will. And the U.S. intelligence community has warned the president that their Iranians are unlikely to give up their nuclear program.

[Jonathan Ferro]

Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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[Lisa Abramowicz]

Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren Expecting no Forward Guidance from Washing Statement Writing the new chair is likely to want to emphasize at this meeting a new, less transparent communication style. Eric joins us now for more. Eric, great to see you. Thank you for being with us. Can we take anything from Kevin Warsh's first appearance on the board of the FOMC back in 2006-2011 that we can pull forward to today as guidance over how he will really preside over the central bank?

[Eric Rosengren]

Well, I think he's made pretty clear that he thinks that previous FOMCs have over communicated and that it's been a bit confusing with a number of voices sometimes giving discordant opinions. So I think he's going to try to slow down the amount of speeches made by members. He's probably going to redraft the statement so that it's very factual and doesn't provide any forward guidance. And this is normally a meeting where the summary of economic project projections is provided, which includes a dot plot that gives the participants expectations of where interest rates will it will be interesting how he handles if they go through with that. It'll be interesting to see how he handles that because even if there's no forward guidance in the statement, if they put the dot plot out, it's going to give some indication that many members of the FOMC think the next move ought to be up, not down.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

You said if they put the dot plot out, do you think that there's a chance that they won't?

[Eric Rosengren]

I mean at the first meeting he said there's going to be a regime change. I expect that meeting is mostly going to be about communications, communications within the committee, communications about the statement, communications with the press conference, and at a very minimum I think he's probably going to seek to deemphasize the summary of economic projections in the dot plot with the hope that eventually it goes away. But when you talk about regime change sometimes it's fairly quick. So it will be interesting to see what happens at the press conference and what actually is released publicly.

[Annmarie Horden]

Eric, you also said he's going to try to slow down the number of speeches. How does he do that while also making sure he's gaining consensus amongst his new colleagues.

[Eric Rosengren]

I mean, I think it is a challenge, particularly given the precedent that many presidents probably have quite a lot of speeches that they've already agreed to give, as well as some of the governors. But I think he's just going to emphasize that he doesn't want to see forward guidance in any of the speeches and that the forward guidance has often been misleading and misdirected the market. And he thinks that both in statements and in speeches, people should stick to the facts and explaining the policy that was just taken.

[Annmarie Horden]

Well, is Marsh himself also going to speak less? And if that's the case, and Jonathan Ferro has brought up this point a lot, doesn't he just outsource how he's thinking to other members of the committee and then they will define him?

[Eric Rosengren]

I mean, he's indicated he thinks that the chair, as well as everybody should speak less. We'll see how difficult that is, particularly if they're expecting to make significant changes. But I think if he does that, it's going to be in the context of the entire committee speaking less frequently and less with less forward guidance than they have in the past.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

It seems like a lot of people have moved past forward guidance anyway, at least in markets. They've been looking at other metrics in terms of inflation, in terms of understanding exactly how tight the labor market is. Do you expect any guidance for at least how the Fed measures inflation, given the criticisms in the past that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has had about the exact metric used?

[Eric Rosengren]

The chair may talk about that in his comments. Usually those kind of discussions take several meetings. The staff usually provides briefings, and there are a lot of economists that would work on the issue of what are the best measures of inflation? Inflation. What's the best way to forecast future inflation? So I would be surprised if that came out at this meeting. I think that probably will take several meetings before he would introduce anything different there.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Do you think it's bad for the Fed to communicate less?

[Eric Rosengren]

It wouldn't be my first choice.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Why?

[Eric Rosengren]

I think that during. During a period of regime change, if there really is regime change, then you need to explain what you're doing and why you're doing it, particularly if it's different than what, you know, the previous two or three chairs have been doing.

[Lisa Abramowicz]

Do you think that the interpretation will be some sort of overly dovish position? Do you think the implication will be sort of political? Or do you think that the implication will just be more uncertainty, potentially having the opposite effect, more volatility and leading to tighter financial conditions.

[Eric Rosengren]

I mean, Kevin has in the past talked about wanting to go back to the day where there's a little more mystique to monetary policy and not being quite as transparent in general. I think the challenge with that is both the public and investors are now very well informed about what the Fed does and how the Fed affects the economy. So I don't think we can go back to where we were under Greenspan or Paul Volcker. And I think that Kevin's thinking may evolve on this over time.

[Jonathan Ferro]

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

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