June CPI and Kevin Warsh

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance – June CPI and Kevin Warsh (Aired July 14, 2026)

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance (TV and Radio) dissects the latest June CPI report, its implications for Federal Reserve policy, the geopolitical influences on inflation, and the broader economic outlook. Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, and guests including Constance Hunter (EIU), Francis Donald (RBC), Maria Vetman (State Street), Dan Tobin (Citi), Mark Gurman (Bloomberg Tech), and Matt Siegel (Vaneck) offer perspectives on inflation, monetary policy, labor market dynamics, tech sector disruptions (notably Apple and OpenAI), FX, and digital assets.

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1. Market & Economic Backdrop: June CPI Data

Key Segment: [01:57]–[07:15]

• Geopolitics and Volatility:

  • Ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly the status of the Strait of Hormuz, present daily headline risk and are a core reason behind volatility in energy prices, driving swings in CPI data.
  • Constance Hunter (EIU): “You wake up every morning and there’s something new.” [02:13]
  • Iran’s internal politics have shifted in response to recent events, potentially leading to more persistent energy-related supply issues.

• Main CPI Takeaways:

  • Energy drove both last month’s upward and this month’s downward CPI moves.
  • “Used cars and trucks down 0.2% on the month, year over year down 1.8... apparel falling, medical care commodities falling.” [03:36]
  • Softer core items signal softening demand but warrant caution about broader disinflation trends.

• Deflation vs. Disinflation:

  • Short-term relief in inflation data could be misread as a global trend; commodity softness reflects dampened nominal GDP and subdued prospects for strong inflation.
  • Tom Keene: “Can you extrapolate that globally... that there could be a dampening of prosperity, a dampening of nominal GDP that drives inflation lower?” [03:18]

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2. Federal Reserve and Policy Implications: Kevin Warsh’s Dilemma

Key Segment: [04:29]–[11:38]

• Inflation's Uncontrollables:

  • Paul Sweeney: “Geopolitics are out of his [Warsh’s] control and out of the Fed’s control.” [04:39]
  • Gas prices are up over 25% YoY, impacting consumer perceptions and inflation expectations.
  • “When inflation expectations are anchored, the Fed has to do much less. When inflation expectations are unanchored, they have to do more.” [05:02]

• Central Bank Independence & FOMC Dynamics:

  • Fed Governors/presidents act independently, even if it sometimes looks like a “rebellion” against the Chair.
  • Constance Hunter: “They are all committed to central bank independence and to fulfilling their congressionally obliged mandate.” [06:01]

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3. In-Depth Analysis: Core CPI, Supply & Demand Dynamics

Key Segment: [07:15]–[13:24]

• Energy Effects vs. Underlying Trends:

  • Francis Donald (RBC): “What we're seeing this month is entirely the energy drag explaining the headline decline...but... core inflation in America is still at 2.6%... over five years of inflation above target.” [07:15]
  • Persistent issues: Food inflation (up 3% YoY), tight labor markets (“the Gilded Age 2.0”), and strong nominal growth remain.

• Supply vs. Demand-Driven Inflation:

  • About half of current inflation is supply-side (AI, tariffs, Strait of Hormuz), half is demand-led (tight labor, infrastructure buildout, top 1% consumption).
  • Francis Donald: “The Fed can be excused for wanting to look through supply led inflation that brings us above 2%. But they have to stay focused on demand side.” [08:54]

• Fed Hikes and Consumer Impacts:

  • Markets initially pricing in two rate hikes, but Francis Donald is skeptical:
    “Leave the Fed on hold... what does this number mean for the consumer?... there are certain items that they'll get some reprieve on, but it's still telling us that prices are too high for most consumers.” [10:38]
  • Erosion of savings, lack of tax refunds, and vulnerability if another price shock occurs.

• Market Outlook to 2027:

  • Despite “economic confusion,” it’s hard to bet against US growth due to:

    • Infrastructure and non-residential build
    • Strong top-tier consumers
    • Productivity growth
    • Francis Donald: “As we head into 2027... base effects are going to bring inflation in the second quarter down next year into as low as 1.3%... Core inflation will not be that low. It'll be in the mid to high twos.” [12:05]

  • Base effects in inflation calculation do not resonate with consumers focused on high absolute prices:

    • “Consumers care way less about year over years. They don't care about what Fed Warsh is going to do. They care about the real economy and that's what numbers like this morning’s CPI tell us.” [13:24]

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4. Equities and Earnings: State of the Market

Key Segment: [14:39]–[17:35]

• Earnings Season & Sector Divergence:

  • Positive US outlook driven by tech sector, while Europe sees price appreciation without corresponding earnings growth.
  • US banks posted strong earnings (especially non-interest income), but Maria Vetman (State Street) flags concerns over the quality and sustainability of earnings growth. [15:17]

• Inflation Data and Rate Expectations:

  • Weak CPI numbers reduce odds of further Fed rate hikes this year; companies with strong margins continue to outperform.
  • Vetman: “Companies were not able to pass higher input costs to the end consumers. So... somewhat concerned about consumer stocks.” [16:34]

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5. Foreign Exchange & Macro Strategy

Key Segment: [19:42]–[24:57]

• Dollar Outlook:

  • Consensus of strong dollar view now getting crowded; Citi’s Dan Tobin advises a more neutral USD outlook as Fed activity may fall short of market pricing.
    • “If the Fed kind of stays where they are, we're gonna have to take some of that hawkish premium out that might see the dollar see a little bit of a bump.” [20:04]
  • No dramatic moves expected in EUR/USD without policy divergence between ECB and Fed.

• Yen & Emerging Markets:

  • JPY impacted more by fiscal than monetary dynamics; appreciation hinges on JGB market stabilization. [21:48]
  • Value seen in trades like short AUD vs. BRL due to strong carry and reduced S&P exposure.
    • “You can earn a lot while sitting in that trade... if it goes nowhere, you're earning a nice little coupon while you wait for more clarity in the future.” [24:35]

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6. Technology Focus: Apple vs. OpenAI Talent War & Product Pipeline

Key Segment: [27:14]–[35:55]

• Apple's Turbulent Year:

  • Mark Gurman (Bloomberg): Apple lost ~400 employees to OpenAI, an unprecedented talent drain leading to litigation against a former engineer for alleged IP theft. [28:08]
    • “OpenAI probably made up between 5 and 10% of that company is made up of people who came from Apple. In Apple’s history, completely unprecedented.” [28:23]
  • The lawsuit, though legally “flimsy,” is seen as a message to current employees.

• Apple’s Strategic Challenge:

  • OpenAI offers compelling pay and the opportunity to work on “something far cooler,” threatening Apple’s innovation edge.
  • Apple’s innovation engine is scrutinized, but Gurman teases major upcoming product launches:
    • “What Apple is going to do over the next two and a half years in terms of new products has never happened before in its history.” [30:40]
    • Upcoming: AI wearables, smart glasses, new smart home devices, iPhone Ultra, and foldables.

• Siri AI Improvements:

  • Public/customer beta now “competent” if not revolutionary; “for 95% of people, the Siri in your pocket now will do absolutely what you expect.” [32:53]

• Apple’s Position in the AI Race:

  • “Apple’s a hardware company at its very core... Integration of hardware and AI is the next step for this company.” [34:10]

• Apple TV+ and Content as Marketing:

  • Not currently a moneymaker but bolsters Apple’s brand ecosystem, with optimism for eventual profitability. [35:29]

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7. Digital Assets & AI Infrastructure: Intersection and Investment Outlook

Key Segment: [38:29]–[44:25]

• Crypto Ecosystem Diversifies:

  • Matt Siegel (Vaneck): “The ecosystem is now big enough that there’s always a bull market somewhere in it.” [39:05]
  • Bitcoin miners are successfully redeploying infrastructure to AI, e.g., CleanSpark’s new lease repurposing bitcoin facilities.
  • “Those companies happen to be bitcoin miners at the moment because they are flush with electricity and power contracts and they’ve been repurposing some of those data centers to serve the AI market.” [39:30]

• Crypto vs. AI as Competing (and Synergistic) Technologies:

  • Both crypto and AI are software; AI sometimes outcompetes alt layer-1 protocols in rapid platform development.
  • “At the infrastructure level [AI] has validated the bitcoin mining thesis...” but altcoins face tougher competition from corporates and AI platforms. [40:44]

• Corporate Blockchains Disrupting Altcoins:

  • Entry of native companies (Circle, etc.) launching private blockchains is reducing open-source protocols’ settlement market share. [43:01]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “When inflation expectations are anchored, the Fed has to do much less. When inflation expectations are unanchored, they have to do more.” – Constance Hunter [05:02]
• “Would you get thrown out [of the Fed] for suggesting 2.5% core cpi is the new normal? No, but you’d probably be relegated to the basement…” – Francis Donald [08:54]
• “If you’re an Apple employee... you’d have to be a lunatic to not second guess going to OpenAI.” – Mark Gurman [33:39]
• “It is real hard to bet against the US economy.” – Francis Donald [12:05]
• “For 95% of people, the Siri in your pocket now will do absolutely what you expect.” – Mark Gurman [32:53]
• “The ecosystem is now big enough that there’s always a bull market somewhere in it.” – Matt Siegel [39:05]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• [01:57] – Market/geopolitical backdrop, CPI breakdown with Constance Hunter
• [04:29] – Gas prices and inflation psychology; Fed dynamics
• [07:15] – Francis Donald on disinflation vs. trend, Fed credibility, and focus going forward
• [11:38] – Consumer and market forward outlook, base effects explained
• [14:39] – Maria Vetman (State Street) on equities, earnings, CPI implications
• [19:42] – Dan Tobin (Citi) on the dollar, FX strategy, and global flows
• [27:14] – Mark Gurman (Bloomberg Tech) on Apple, OpenAI, and upcoming products
• [38:29] – Matt Siegel (Vaneck) on Bitcoin, crypto miners pivoting to AI, and the evolution of the value chain

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Episode Tone and Style

The show alternates between rapid-fire data analysis, irreverent asides, and deep-dive interviews with domain experts. The hosts’ banter maintains energy but pivots quickly between technical finance talk, big-picture economics, and lighter cultural references—creating an engaging but rigorous atmosphere. Quotes and analysis reflect a blend of candor, wit, and expertise drawn from Wall Street and Silicon Valley.

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This summary should equip you with nuanced insights from the episode on inflation, Fed policy, equity markets, the tech talent war, and digital asset innovation, even if you missed the live broadcast.

Transcript

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[Tom Keene]

we start strong constant hunter with us with EIU and the Chief economist Constance Paul just saved me with the war headlines. My head is spinning. I'm using Ask be a Bloomberg and I can't keep up. Do you feel that way?

[Constance Hunter]

Oh, yeah, every day. And if you layer on what's happening in the Gulf with the Middle east, which is a big reason why we saw this pullback last month, and, and a potential reason why the, you know, the July CPI may not be as favorable. You know, you wake up every morning and there's, there's something new.

[Paul Sweeney]

So let's just walk through this CPI data here. It looks like it's energy really impacted here. What's your takeaway here? We had arguably elevated higher inflation last month. Energy impacted kind of a little bit of reversal here this month it seems like.

[Constance Hunter]

Yep, and that's great. But when we look forward, it really depends upon is the Strait of Hormuz going to be open or not? Right. And if we look internally within Iran.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Right.

[Constance Hunter]

A lot of the actions that have been taken have really reversed some of that anti government sentiment we saw at the turn of the year. So now there is more support amongst the people of Iran for being hardliners against the US and it just doesn't bode well for a settling of that situation.

[Tom Keene]

This deflationary tendency in one report four minutes ago, can you extrapolate that globally as you do it, EIU and say that we're misjudging the inflation and there could be a dampening of prosperity, a dampening of nominal GDP that drives inflation lower.

[Constance Hunter]

So the way I would look at this report is, is figuring out what part of it is going to be forward looking, what part of it is signal for what is coming ahead. And if we look down at some of the commodities where prices are softening, so we look at new vehicles and assuming I'm reading this right, new vehicles are flat. You see used cars and trucks down 0.2% on the month, year over year down 1.8. You see apparel falling, you see medical care commodities falling. So when we look at things like apparel, when we look at things like vehicles, what we're seeing is softening demand. And so we'll get more information later this week about retail sales. But if we just consider globally the impact of higher energy prices, of course, coming back to your question, it dampens demand, it subtracts from demand and for other things in the economy.

[Tom Keene]

Paul, here's a wash headline at 10 o'. Clock. This is a Paul Sweeney headline. Job creation has kept pace with the workforce Yeah, I mean that's what you were talking about earlier.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah. It's interesting, I mean, some reading, some of the prepared remarks from Kevin Wash, you know, really resolute about getting inflation down. But at the end of day, the geopolitics are out of his control and out of the Fed's control. And we see that whipsaw in global energy prices which are now in the upswing yet again with WTI crude oil over $80 a barrel again. I mean, there's not much you can do sitting at the Federal Reserve about that.

[Constance Hunter]

And of course, while we had relief last month on gas prices, we're still looking at up over 25% year over year. And we know that people attach to what we call salient prices things that they buy frequently. Even if it's not the largest part of their consumption basket, they overweight it in their, in their estimates of future inflation. So what's happening with gas prices Definitely matters for inflation expectations, which matters for the Fed. I mean that's something spoke about yesterday, is that when inflation expectations are anchored, it's much, the Fed has to do much less. When inflation rears its head, when inflation expectations are unanchored, they have to do more.

[Tom Keene]

Well, let me get this and I get to go to IBM here and some really important perspective. One final question I want to go to your wheelhouse. Do you frame that if Worsh does X, Y or Z that the governors and presidents have the ability to rebel against him like what we saw at the bank of England years ago?

[Constance Hunter]

I think that the governors and presidents are going to do what they think is best for monetary policy. And if that works out to, to use your word, rebellion, then that's how the cookie crumbles. I do think that they are all committed to central bank independence and to fulfilling their congressionally obliged mandate because she nailed that.

[Tom Keene]

She didn't even have to read that off the card.

[Paul Sweeney]

She's got.

[Tom Keene]

She's constant on her. Thank you, thank you, thank you. With eiu, Robert Schiffman publishes on IBM. I don't know how he does this. He says first of all, buckle up. Oh, he makes real clear that this is not just an IBM thing. He says it's too early to write off IBM despite poor second quarter. That's his reaction. He says quote will be an interesting day as the sky is falling theme builds that in technology. We continue on the state of the American economy. Francis Donald joins us. Chief Economist RBC Capital Markets. You've had all of eight minutes, Francis, to digest the CPI report. Is it a one off disinflationary tendency or do you detect a trend?

[Francis Donald]

Well, facetiously when I saw the core CPI come in flat, I thought oh, Kevin Wash is the most successful Fed chair ever. He's done it in a matter of weeks. He's solved for the inflation challenge in play. Except that to your point, what we're seeing this month is entirely the energy drag explaining the headline decline. And there's enough going on in core CPI to tell us that these are probably some volatile components like motor vehicle insurance and wireless telephones. Those have dragged on core CPI underneath the surface. I am still concerned and firstly, I don't know that we should be saying inflation is totally solved when core inflation in America is still at 2.6%. We are over five years of inflation above target and we still have some pretty serious issues in the areas that matter most to consumers like food, which is up 3% and still likely to Accelerate ahead and an extremely tight labor market. That reminds me of the good old fashioned demand led inflation which is still in the system as well. So I think two things can be true. We can celebrate that. We've had some reprieve here this month in many areas of the report. This is good news for Chair Warsh as he heads into testimony, but it is too early to take our eye off the ball.

[Paul Sweeney]

Francis, would I get thrown out of the Federal Reserve if I walked in and said, you know what, in today's world order, two and a half percent core cpi, that's fine. I mean in a world where there's globalization is, is, is going by the highway here and it's all, you know, every man for himself, costs are going to be higher. That's just the way it is. What happens then?

[Francis Donald]

Would you get thrown out? No, but you'd probably be relegated to the basement with a few other colleagues who share the view and you'd have to be really quiet about it. I suspect that the way we have to think about inflation now is really comes down to this idea of what is supply led inflation and what is demand led inflation. And the Francisco Fed actually breaks this out and what they find right now is that it's about half supply given and that's everything from AI to tariffs to the Strait of Hormuz coming through and created blockages. But half of it is demand led. And this is the area that the Federal Reserve can control and should control. So while we continue to focus on these big structural trends that are meaningful to price levels and price growth, I think this Federal Reserve is really going to struggle more with the old fashioned types of inflation. And that's because Tom, if you've highlighted many times this morning, nominal growth is very strong in America. The labor market is extraordinarily tight. There is a massive infrastructure build coming out. It is the Gilded Age 2.0 and you have an exceptionally wealthy top 1% consumer. Those are the types of things that drive demand led inflation. So the Fed can be excused and all central banks globally can be excused for wanting to look through supply led inflation. That maybe brings us above 2%. But they have to stay focused on demand side. And that's where my concern in the second half of the year is much more so than are we seeing energy coming up or down in a month to month.

[Paul Sweeney]

So from I'm looking at the work function here, still looking for almost two rate hikes this year. Does that seem reasonable to you?

[Francis Donald]

Leave the Fed on hold? And of course it's Natural to say, okay, well, what does this number mean for the Fed? But I look at this number now from a different lens, which is, what does this inflation mean for the consumer? And tell us about the consumer. Because at the end of the day, what will matter for most businesses, for anyone picking stocks, for those who are trying to serve, is what is this telling us about the consumer? It's telling us that the consumer is not struggling under the same gasoline prices that they were last month. It's telling us there are certain items that they'll get some reprieve on, but it's still telling us that prices are too high for most consumers. And when you combine the CPI number with the fact that we no longer have tax refunds, that we have seen savings eroded, this is a consumer that may have had some reprieve now, but if we see another price shock in the second half of the year, whether energy prices rise again, whether food prices rise or reprieve, I don't believe this is a consumer that can withstand that. And you'll see pricing powers eroded.

[Tom Keene]

Francis, one final question, I think, just to get us, you know, through the year and on into two. I haven't said this yet, 2027.

[Maria Vetman]

No.

[Tom Keene]

Are you ready for that?

[Paul Sweeney]

No.

[Tom Keene]

I mean, Francis, I look at all the uncertainties, all the different threads and narratives off, off your desk. Is there a confidence to be in the markets? Given the economic confusion,

[Francis Donald]

it's not too early for 2027. We just had a meeting of when we were going to put out our 2027 outlook. It's July and we have to contribute forecasts for 2027. And when we look into 2027, what we see is it is still really hard to bet against the American economy. And that is because of the structural support coming from non residential builds. That's infrastructure. You still have a wealthy top consumer and there's a lot of government money inside. There's productivity growth that is helping the American economy stay at or above 2% growth for the next 12 to 18 months. And as we head into 2027, I think what will be the biggest challenge for markets to digest is that you're going to get what I'm calling fortuitous math, which is base effects are going to bring inflation in the second quarter down next year into as low as 1.3%. Core inflation will not be that low. It'll be in the mid to high twos. But we're going to have to digest some pretty serious base effects. But if you combine those two stories together, as I continue to say it's real hard to bet against the US economy.

[Tom Keene]

Francis, people are slowing down on i80 now across America. Do you know how much our listeners hate base effects? They go to the grocery store and the base effect is when did I pay $7 for oranges? They used to be three exactly.

[Francis Donald]

Or Amber's prices are up 30% in five years. Consumers care way less about year over years. They don't care about what Fed Wash is going to do. They care about the real economy and that's what numbers like to this morning CPI tell us. They tell us there's some short term reprieve, but prices are too high and consumers, the mass consumer is still struggling under the weight of higher prices and the cost of living.

[Tom Keene]

Frances, thank you so much. FRANCIS donald, RBC Two way we roll folks. Welcome across the nation. Constance Hunter with us from EIU and then Frances Donald from rbc. We've done you know, really pretty much everything we can. An hour and 15 minutes away from from Chairman Walsh with us. It was we went to Europe earlier with Isabel Matteo Silagos. Let's do it again and get a different perspective. The conversation so important on this huge day. Maria Many joins us, head of US Equity strategy State street here on a stock market reaction. Just the earnings season that State street sets up. Maria. I mean it's, it's just got to be price to perfection and a buoyancy of earnings and revenue growth.

[Maria Vetman]

Yeah. Hello. Thanks for having me. I mean I agree for lots of sectors, for lots of companies, market pricing has been tough. I particularly worry about European equities where we really haven't seen a lot of earnings growth but a lot of price appreciation. So definitely price for perfection. Us we're a little bit more optimistic as usual. I mean tech sector tends to provide majority of earnings growth and we see very little sign of that slow.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Maria, again we got a lot of data points this morning from the big US Global banks here. Boy, business seems pretty darn good. What do you make of it?

[Maria Vetman]

Yeah, I mean bank earnings, I mean since they usually come out first and they usually come out like come out swinging, I mean the numbers are very substantial, very strong earnings. I mean I for banks, I mean the thing I really focus on is the quality of earnings. So I'd like to look at what proportion of earnings come from interest and non interest income. And I mean we're beginning to detect quite worrying signs. I mean yes, of course financial market and financial markets are booming and banks make a lot of money in non interest income I mean in theory market should not really reprice based on that. If you really reprice based on underlying kind of corporate profitability interesting like lending demand and all that. So that's maybe I mean potentially one kind of weaker point we've seen so far. I mean obviously we're looking to see more bank but that's something I'm watching out the quality of earnings.

[Paul Sweeney]

We saw some inflation data today Maria that suggests that, you know, the markets are kind of reacting maybe the I'm looking at the work function, the I guess the expectation for two rate cuts is now back down to closer to one. I'm sorry rate hike to one maybe so far this year. How does that impact kind of how you think about just equities in general?

[Maria Vetman]

I mean. Yeah, I mean like the numbers came out, I mean CPI numbers came out fairly weak. I mean we expected weaker number maybe not as weak as as we got but kind of looking at trends in inflation kind of our suspicion was that some signs of weakness. We haven't seen kind of a lot of transmission into core when oil price was coming coming up. So it was fairly insulated. So that that has been to be honest a little bit of a concern for us that companies were not able to pass higher input cost cost to the end consumers. So I mean we're somewhat concerned about like consumer stocks. So that's kind of where weaknesses I think your previous guest was talking about this kind of 1% total 1% have a lot of money. What about the bottom 99%? So that's where the stresses are. So I think this kind of divergence that we've seen in equities, companies with strong margins, strong profits, doing a lot better than the one without.

[Constance Hunter]

Welcome.

[Tom Keene]

Thank you so much. Maria Vetman short a visit with State Street. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

[Paul Sweeney]

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[Tom Keene]

Dan Tobin joins us at Citibri. Does Jay Frazier call you up and say what's a dollar going to do?

[Dan Tobin]

You know, it's actually been kind of quiet the past year. Despite all the hype about the collapse of the dollar and all of the negativity.

[Tom Keene]

You and Holland Horse nailed this. He had a higher rate regime, you had a strong dollar regime. Now what?

[Dan Tobin]

Yeah, now that everybody's come on board to our side of things, we actually think that view might be getting a little bit crowded. It might be time to actually be thinking about a more neutral dollar outlook from here after the appreciation that we've got. And I think today reinforces the reason for that, which is that but we've got a lot priced in for the Fed. They're probably not gonna deliver on it this year unless we get some real escalation again in the conflict. And so if the Fed kind of stays where they are, we're gonna have to take some of that hawkish premium out that might see the dollar see a little bit of a bump, but we're seeing that right now. We don't really think we're gonna get a major dollar decline from that. But ultimately it is hard for the dollar to keep rallying if the Fed doesn't actually deliver those hikes this year.

[Paul Sweeney]

So speaking for a friend who's going to be in Europe in October, am I going to get euro parity again? Or what's the realistic call for the euro? Because we had 120 down to 114 here. Where do we go?

[Dan Tobin]

Yeah, sadly, no, you're not going to get that opportunity for this summer. Yeah, you're probably going to have a better trip to Japan if you're going to go anywhere. Yeah, there you go.

[Paul Sweeney]

That's the credit card statements everywhere.

[Maria Vetman]

Yes.

[Dan Tobin]

So no, unfortunately not. Part of that is just us that in order to get a move to parity, you really need to see the ECB and the Fed diverging. That is the ECB is going to be cutting, the Fed's going to be hiking while we have some cuts. Our economists expect some cuts from the Fed and some hikes from the ECB for effects. We're basically keeping them both neutral. We assume the ECB is not going to do anything this year. We assume the Fed's not going to do anything this year. And if that's right, we're probably not going to get any big moves now from here.

[Paul Sweeney]

So. All right, so we think about. You mentioned the yen. I mean when, boy we were. I was kind of on almost a 165 watch there for a while. Here we're sitting at just under 162to the yen. What's the bank of Japan thinking these days?

[Dan Tobin]

Well, I'm sure they're wondering how they can get this currency a bit stronger without necessarily destabilizing the economy and hiking too much. The reality is at this point the main issue for Japan and the yen is fiscal, not just rates. And so even if the bank of Japan were to hike a little bit more than is currently expected, it's not going to be a game changer. We need to see the fiscal pressure ease in Japan. JGB markets to stabilize. That's. And then the rotation of the JGBs. That's what will get you yen appreciation. We're all looking for it, but the timing is uncertain and it might be longer than than we want.

[Tom Keene]

Dan Tobin with Citigroup. We continue here on what the litmus paper of the global system, the dollar tells us. Alexis Christofferson, a bit than Rich Hill and real estate is. Well, a couple other worthies coming up later in the hour. The interim, Jess Metten will be with us. Solid schedule, solid guest day. So Dan, what I love is when, when they send in research and they give a chart just for me. I mean, I tear up, I get misty. Sure. So it's D X Y, the blended traditional dollar index, 54% euro, whatever it is, China's not in. It's not in it. And then you say everybody's looking at the short termism and you go back to an oh, a trend in the bottom line is A, it's lovely, B it's well contained. When we go down one log standard deviation on dxy, which is where we are right now, why do we bounce up stronger dollar at the end of

[Dan Tobin]

the day, it comes down to relative growth. The US is still the world's growth engine. That has not.

[Tom Keene]

Money flows to us, it comes down the flow. This sounds like Bob Sinch one on one from ages ago. Money comes in, flows up and up goes the Dow.

[Dan Tobin]

Where does your money get treated the best? The US from a big picture perspective remains the place.

[Tom Keene]

I mean it's like ready folks from 2008 1ish grimmer but 1, 2, 3, 4 times Paul, we've come back dollar weakness. OMG, the world's coming to an end.

[Dan Tobin]

Boom.

[Tom Keene]

We get a Dan Tobin left.

[Paul Sweeney]

Dan, where do you see value out there in the currency markets?

[Dan Tobin]

You know, I think right now one of the more interesting places is actually very small country somewhere like New Zealand where there's been a lot of negative expectations, a lot of migration, a lot of Kiwis left their own country and you're starting to. To see people come back can often be a sign that things are starting to improve. More tactically, we're looking at places like Brazil. Great carry. Yes, there's some uncertainty on the election later on this year, but with real rates where they are, it's just so attractive.

[Tom Keene]

Paul's so polite. He goes, you know, what is your best, you know, what's your single best idea?

[Dan Tobin]

Right now we're short Aussie against Brazil, so we like the real against the Australian dollar, Brazil. So it takes out they have very similar commodity.

[Tom Keene]

This is like losers in the World cup trade.

[Dan Tobin]

Well, well, maybe losers in the World cup, but a lot of. So you can earn a lot while sitting in that trade. You reduce your exposure to the S and P because both Aussie and Brazil move similarly to the S and P. They move similar to the dollar. They move similar to commodity price changes. So you hedge out a ton of risk and you're just picking up the carry. And if it goes nowhere, you're earning a nice little coupon while you wait for more clarity in the future.

[Tom Keene]

Bronze it. That was beautiful.

[Paul Sweeney]

Trade on.

[Tom Keene]

Bill Gross has never described peso carry. That. That was beautiful. Dan Tobin, thank you. So bring Ms. Frazier with you next time when you show up. He's head of FX for Citigroup. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up. After this,

[Paul Sweeney]

support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on Public you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public

[Dan Tobin]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit returns to Singapore on July 22nd.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Our 5th annual Asia Pacific Summit will

[Dan Tobin]

explore how business and finance leaders are shaping the next phase of globalization by strengthening resilience and driving a multi speed energy transition across Asia's diverse markets. Join us for solutions driven discussions and networking opportunities. Thank you to our Summit advisor, Bangkok bank. Learn [e-mail] SBN Singapore.

[Narrator/Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10am Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tom Keene]

So what we're going to do is fly in the men from la and this is on Apple. Mark Gurman and flat out drives a conversation worldwide. He joins us, our Chief correspondent on Technology and Apple at Bloomberg News. How's Tim Cook doing? I mean the litigation and all were there like tantrums and arguments over the last two weeks as Apple went after salmon OpenAI I have to tell you,

[Mark Gurman]

they're dealing with so much right now. They have this big management transition, right? Tim Cook stepping down at the beginning of September. John Turner is taking over. They're dealing with the memory shortage, dealing with global politics, Trump tariffs, you name it, right? But it feels like the biggest thing they've been dealing with over the last year is actually OpenAI. Tim Cook, the executive team over there, they've been beside themselves.

[Tom Keene]

They've lost 400 people.

[Mark Gurman]

400 people and in their mind they Needed to do something to stop the bleeding.

[Tom Keene]

How can they stop people from leaving?

[Mark Gurman]

Lawsuit. The lawsuit.

[Tom Keene]

Okay, but the lawsuit. Every, every day, everybody leaves, we lose people at Bloomberg, we gain people.

[Mark Gurman]

Yes, but what's the. So what here we don't lose, you know, another company, right? A competitor. 10% of that company isn't made up of Bloomberg employees. Right. It's 400 people leaving one company for another company. And it's in Apple's history, completely unprecedented. OpenAI probably made up between 5 and 10% of that company is made up of people who came from app.

[Tom Keene]

It's.

[Mark Gurman]

In Apple's view, it's absurd. Apple believes there was some shady behavior going on. They couldn't prove it, of course, until they caught this kid, this iPhone engineer named Cheng Liu, who hacked into Apple servers after he left the company and was able to pull engineering presentations and all sorts of other material. And so they were able to build a case around that. But one thing I'll tell you is, even so, the lawsuit is kind of flimsy. Like you said, people transfer between companies all the time. That is commonplace. But what Apple's doing here is they created a narrative to scare their current employees, I think. And if you're an Apple employee right now and you're teetering between staying at Apple and going to open AI, what happens here?

[Tom Keene]

Mr. Bloomberg walks by me, says, if you don't shape up, I'm cutting off coffee.

[Mark Gurman]

Oh, that's funny.

[Tom Keene]

Paul Sweeney with Mark Gurn.

[Paul Sweeney]

What's the intent here of Apple here? Is it maybe, as you suggest, maybe to scare existing employees? But if you're. You don't like to be in a position where you have to do that. You want to create an environment where you want to stay at Apple because it's Apple.

[Mark Gurman]

Well, there. Okay, well, how much time do we have? But let's unpack this. So Apple has been dealing with a lot lately. Obviously, the innovation engine has slowed down. There are a lot of people who wanted to go to OpenAI and work on this new technology with the promise of building something revolutionary, thinking we're going to build the next iPhone. Right. And the other thing you have to know is that OpenAI is paying 3, 4, 5x what Apple is.

[Tom Keene]

They're just paying them more money.

[Mark Gurman]

They're paying them more money.

[Tom Keene]

It's like when they go from the Giants to the Dodgers.

[Mark Gurman]

It's the company. It's the combination of, yeah, there's no salary cap in Silicon Valley. Right. You're getting the combination of more money with the promise of working on something far cooler. Not doing the same phone or iPad or Apple watch year after year, guys.

[Tom Keene]

And they're all wearing Bruno Cuccinelli T shirts. I get it. Like the way you style. Mark. Is there business? I mean, are we going to get a bombshell for them this quarter like we did from IBM this morning? I don't see it.

[Mark Gurman]

No, that's not going to happen. In fact, if you hit a record high yesterday. Well, let's turn the conversation then to Apple's future. What Apple is going to do over the next two and a half years in terms of new products has never happened before in its history. There is so much stuff coming that I am having a hard time wrapping my head around it.

[Maria Vetman]

It.

[Mark Gurman]

There's a lot coming. You've never seen anything like this. My credit card is already. I can feel it in my pocket. It's shaking.

[Tom Keene]

I mean, I mean, I haven't. Folks, I don't get tweaked nerdy on this, but I'm going to do it with young Gurman. I got an M3 Ultra at home.

[Maria Vetman]

Okay.

[Tom Keene]

I have a 2019 Mac Pro, which I'm using as a coffee table to put a martini on.

[Mark Gurman]

I didn't know you were that cool. I mean, I knew you were cool, but I didn't know you were like M3 ultra quick.

[Tom Keene]

I don't want to get into it because you're. Your conversation is more important than mine. I don't see any innovation. Slow down here. I got a new Alexis. Go. Would somebody go up, go out to my man bag at my desk and pull out the Neo?

[Mark Gurman]

Okay. The Neo just so Mark. And it's incredible. My wife just got one last week. That machine is awesome. Even though they did the $100 price hike at $700, you're not getting anything in that category. So, yeah, that is an innovative product and she loves it. Everyone I know who has the Neo absolutely loves it. By the way, there's a new Neo coming next year.

[Tom Keene]

They hit a record high yesterday. Woe is me.

[Maria Vetman]

Apple.

[Tom Keene]

Paul, you got to be kidding me. IBM is down 20%.

[Mark Gurman]

It's ridiculous.

[Tom Keene]

These guys are rocking the free world because they're not doing all this AI stuff. Right?

[Mark Gurman]

Right. I mean, it's funny. People say, oh, Apple's the new IBM. Apple's the new Microsoft. And they mean it in a negative sense. No, no. Apple's future, the next three years. Extraordinarily strong AI wearables. They're working on three AI wearables and they're Working on three AI home products. They've got stuff coming that's going to blow your mind. From smart glasses to this new smart home device. I'm pumped. And don't get me started on the iPhone Ultra, the foldable phone. I'm really excited for that.

[Paul Sweeney]

So you think Apple, from an investor's perspective, can shake the concern that they're kind of missing AI? They're lagging behind AI. Can they change that narrative, do you think?

[Mark Gurman]

Have you tried the new Siri AI on the phone?

[Tom Keene]

No.

[Mark Gurman]

So the public beta came out yesterday. I've been using it since the beginning of June, the developer beta. But the new Siri AI, what they've gone from on Siri is completely incompetent to competent. I'm not saying it's anywhere near as good as ChatGPT, but for 95% of people, the Siri in your pocket now will do absolutely what you expect. And it's terrific.

[Tom Keene]

Paul.

[Matt Siegel]

20 finally. 28 finally.

[Tom Keene]

Yeah. I don't get Siri. 28.7% per year for the last 10 years. This company's a failure.

[Paul Sweeney]

Exactly.

[Tom Keene]

It's terrible.

[Paul Sweeney]

Exactly. So what's next stage for this suit here? Because this kind of goes to the heart and soul of any tech company. It's the people, they walk out the door. Your assets walk out the door every day at 5:00'.

[Maria Vetman]

Clock.

[Mark Gurman]

Well, let me just say, well, in some places, five o'.

[Maria Vetman]

Clock.

[Mark Gurman]

But let me tell you this, if you're an Apple employee and you read that lawsuit, you'd have to be a lunatic to not second guess going to OpenAI. The way that Apple frames this, the way Apple talks about how you're. Their security is going to go after you if you go to OpenAI. I think Apple employees are going to be very scared to move between companies at this point.

[Tom Keene]

Do you have winners and losers in your head? You don't have to tell us because I understand it's rude. But if there's like seven players in AI, does Mark Gurman know these two or three aren't going to make it?

[Mark Gurman]

That are not going to make it? Well, I'll tell you this. I guess people are listening in on this one to hear about Apple. Apple's going to make it because Apple's a hardware company at its very core and they have the models now from Google to do cool hardware stuff. And I think that these six AI products that they're coming out with are going to do an effective job. I think they're going to sell well. And I think the Integration of hardware and AI is the next step for this company. Of those again, okay, so we're gonna see a few next year and a few the year after. You've got smart glasses, you've got AirPods with AI you've got a pendant, you've got the smart home hub.

[Matt Siegel]

Basically.

[Mark Gurman]

Tom, Paul, you put this smart home command center on your desk. You put it in your kitchen, you put it wherever you walk up to it and it's like, oh, hi Paul. Right. Be able to pull up your news, your notes, your music. You'll do FaceTime on it.

[Tom Keene]

It.

[Mark Gurman]

It's going to be a really cool device. It's a game changer.

[Tom Keene]

Have you met Rebecca Ferguson? I mean, a guy as cool as you like. Silo Season 3 on Apple, rocking it right now. Are you going to be one of these people at the beginning that's an executive producer. How's that whole thing going for them for Apple?

[Mark Gurman]

Are you talking about the home devices?

[Tom Keene]

No, I'm talking about Apple TV and silos out of the new season. And there's executive. There's all these fancy people.

[Mark Gurman]

I don't think you know, producers. It's not a moneymaker for them. What it is is a marketing engine. Right. How many people are falling in love with these shows and they're like, I want to be part of the secret system. So I think that people ignore that this is part of the marketing budget even though it's a money loser. But like the tide is sort of turning, right? Like a few years ago it felt like I don't know how much longer they going to do this for. Now it's feeling like they can do this forever and they are going to turn a profit on Apple TV at some point.

[Tom Keene]

What's so great is we have Gerard Cassidy coming up up in Portland, Maine who's using an iPhone 8.

[Mark Gurman]

It's like Nixon 8, 2017. It still works.

[Tom Keene]

It still works. I think it works even. What's more amazing is Gerard Cassidy still works. Mark Gurman, thank you. Thank you so much. In our studios usually I see him at the bar are at the Sunset Tower in L. A but he's here today and that's a good thing on Apple. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

[Paul Sweeney]

Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agencies that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk, monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public

[Dan Tobin]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures this week on Leaders with me Francine Lacqua, I speak to tenants tennis legend Rafa Nadal about how he stayed competitive despite injury.

[Paul Sweeney]

I was able to enjoy the victories probably more than if I will not have this issue.

[Matt Siegel]

One iconic match in my mind was

[Paul Sweeney]

I am almost dead and whether he misses playing, I don't miss Dennis because there's nothing else to offer.

[Dan Tobin]

Listen and watch Leaders with me Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Maria Vetman]

Foreign.

[Narrator/Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10am Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tom Keene]

There's a whole nother world out there. Matt Siegel's expert at this for years at Bloomberg and then holding court at Vaneck in Digital as at Research, where he uses the Bloomberg terminal each and every day because he learned how to do that. Krugman, the laureate is out really, you know, doing what I do, which is saying, okay, I don't get bitcoin. Your point is? You don't get bitcoin. But there's a whole nother world out there in the crypto space where you can profit as you've massively outperform bitcoin over the last X number of quarters.

[Matt Siegel]

Yeah, Tom, you know, bitcoin is the foundational crypto asset and it's one that's obviously gaining adoption by sovereign nations, long term holders who have excess electricity that they can use to either mine bitcoin or mine AI tokens. But this ecosystem is now big enough that there's always a bull market somewhere in it.

[Tom Keene]

For example.

[Matt Siegel]

Well, so our our actively managed ETF node has outperformed the Bitcoin price something like 100 percentage points since inception over the last 13 months or so. And we've been focusing on cash flowing companies. Those companies happen to be bitcoin miners at the moment because they are flush with electricity and power contracts and they've been repurposing some of those data centers to serve the AI market. So one of our holdings, CleanSpark, is up 15% today. They just signed a $6 billion lease in Georgia to repurpose some of these bitcoin facilities to AI. So, so these companies have optionality, they're very cheap versus data center REITs, at least on our work. And those names have driven the bulk of our returns. But look, what we're trying to do is provide diversified exposure to the entire crypto value chain at a reasonable price. Avoid the pitfalls like over leverage, bad corporate governance. And if you do that, the space is working.

[Tom Keene]

How quaint. Exactly like actual securities research. Exactly.

[Paul Sweeney]

How does the growth of AI in the last four, three, four years impacted the crypto space? This is a super broad question, so take it anywhere you want.

[Matt Siegel]

How's it impacted the crypto space at the infrastructure level? It has validated the bitcoin mining thesis, which is if you can source very low cost electricity, oftentimes renewable, you can build ahead of demand. And that's kind of what bitcoin miners do. They go out in search of the lowest cost power and now that that power ecosystem is being re rated. So that's been the most concrete example of how crypto and AI are intersecting. But look, they're also competitive because in the end AI is software and crypto is software. And if you look at the performance of the altcoins, the Ethereums, the Solanas, there's a long tail of millions of these altcoins which know a lot of them don't, don't have much fundamental value. And AI is competing with some of those because it's easier to spin up a software platform or a database platform. So there's cross currents.

[Paul Sweeney]

So is node. I'm looking at it, you're holding, is it effectively an AI infrastructure? Play.

[Matt Siegel]

It's become correlated with that theme because some of our highest conviction names are up 4x5x over the last year. I don't think that will always be the case. Bitcoin is a cyclical asset. It goes through a four year cycle. There's no buyer of last resort. So it's either going down or it's going up. This is the down year. Historically we would expect a year from now when we're looking back. You know our fund may look a little bit different partially because of performance, partially because of reallocating dumb question of

[Tom Keene]

the day, if there are people mining bitcoin, does that mean there'll be more bitcoin threatening price?

[Matt Siegel]

Now the bitcoin algorithm is fixed. The current inflation rate is about 80 basis points per year that will be cut in half in about 18 months down to 40 basis points. No matter how many miners there are, the same bitcoin is produced each day, it's just divided among those proportionate to their share of the network.

[Paul Sweeney]

So called altcoins have underperformed this year as corporations are building their own blockchains to capture so called or settlement economics previously flowing to open source chains. What does that mean?

[Matt Siegel]

Yeah, I think the biggest development and surprise since the election, everyone was expecting this deregulatory push and some of the open source coins like the Ethereums and Solanas would outperform. What actually happened is that the deregulation also hit the capital markets and the investment banks are able to underwrite equity capital formation in this sector. And native companies like Circle for example are launching their own blockchains that are competing with these open source ones and they have some some more attractive characteristics if you're an enterprise user.

[Tom Keene]

How did a guy from an English degree at Harvard become tech nerd?

[Matt Siegel]

Well Tom, I learned by working in financial journalism about fake news pretty early and got pretty disillusioned with this space. Found myself into money markets and the buy side covering tech and the thing to cover was the closed source network effect. Companies like Google and Apple and you know, cryptography was liberalized by the Clinton administration. They allowed cryptography to be exported to the rest of the world. That ignited a bunch of new applications. Bitcoin was one of them. But all of cryptography has the chance to take margin away from these closed networks and I see that margin opportunity. I think there's going to be a lot of consumer welfare created.

[Tom Keene]

Thank you. Thank you. Mass Siegel, it's been too long. Head of Digital Assets Research at Vaneck.

[Narrator/Announcer]

This is the the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each weekday 7 to 10am Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

[Dan Tobin]

Hi, I'm Barry Ritholtz inviting you to join me for the Masters in Business podcast. Every week we bring you conversations with the people who shape markets, investing and business. I speak with CEOs, Nobel laureates, market innovators and legendary investors.

[Mark Gurman]

Whether you own stocks, bonds, real estate,

[Dan Tobin]

commodities, even crypto, these are discussions you

[Tom Keene]

absolutely need to hear.

[Dan Tobin]

Subscribe to the Masters in Business podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.