June Jobs Day

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast: June Jobs Day (July 2, 2026)

Hosts: Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney
Featured Guests: Claudia Sahm (New Century Advisors), Kathryn Kaminski (Alpha Simplex), Christina Campman (Invesco), Margaret Patel, Leah Taniguchi (Bullhorn)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Surveillance centers on the June U.S. jobs report and its implications for the labor market, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and global markets. The hosts bring on economists and market experts to dissect the numbers, interpret the Fed’s likely response, and provide investment and industry perspectives.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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I. Claudia Sahm: Breaking Down the Jobs Report

(Starts at 01:56)

• Labor Force Dynamics and Misconceptions

  • Claudia Sahm is asked what the "gloom crew" got wrong in previous recession predictions.
  • She points out increased immigration and labor force growth cushion the rise in unemployment:

    "I said those increase in unemployment rate, be careful with that. We've got a lot of immigration, got a lot of workers flowing and some of that increase is good, not bad." (02:19)

• Fed’s Dual Mandate: Employment vs. Inflation

  • Hosts question whether the Fed is focusing too much on inflation and ignoring employment.
  • Sahm responds: "At this moment, having a focus on inflation makes a lot of sense. It is the, it is the problem...I'd like to hear the chair say [labor market is stable] and not just nothing about the labor market." (03:19)
  • Notes Powell’s only comment on labor at Sintra was the word “steady.”

• Wage Growth and Inflation

  • Wages aren’t keeping up with inflation currently, but wage pressures aren’t feeding more inflation:

    "On average, wages are not keeping up with inflation right now...We don't see signs of labor shortages, wages picking up in a way that they could be creating even more inflation." (04:17)

• Sticky Inflation and Labor Supply

  • Sahm says about 0.5% of current inflation appears persistent, largely in services, even as temporary drivers like energy roll off.

    "There's still about a half a percentage point, a lot of it tied back to some of the service inflation categories that it's just harder to see how that gets chipped away." (05:01)

• Nonfarm Payrolls & Revisions

  • Discussing the reliability of headline jobs data as constant revisions are made:

    "Revisions are part of the process, getting a clearer and clearer picture...don't get too hung up on the latest number. Look at averages, look under the hood." (07:26)

  • The 3-month moving average dropped to 111,000 jobs, but Sahm argues what matters is job seekers finding good jobs, not just the raw numbers. (08:42)

• Fed Policy Implications

  • Sahm: Today's numbers will keep the Fed focused on inflation. She's more concerned by the decline in labor force participation that contributed to the drop in unemployment:

    "That does give me a little bit of concern just about the structure of the workforce that's out there." (09:52)

• Immigration & Sector Impact

  • Lower immigration can pinch industries but the effect isn’t major at the aggregate level:

    "Industries that rely a lot on immigrant workforce, that can cause labor shortages. We haven't seen that kind of at an aggregate level...There are hints, in industry level." (11:27)

• Fed’s Next Move & Market Reaction

  • Sahm believes the report shouldn't prompt an immediate market reaction or shift the Fed's stance:

    "We have a Fed that has committed to delivering price stability...today’s data does not settle that argument at all. We're just going to need a lot more information." (12:55)

• Memorable Moment:

  • Light-hearted chat about Sahm’s cats and the summery mood among Wall Street traders. (13:24)

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II. Kathryn Kaminski: Market Trends and the Dollar

(Starts at 14:28)

• Dollar Movements

  • Recent dollar strength reversed today. Kaminski attributes much of today's market shift to labor market data and reduced pressure on the Fed:

    "This puts a little bit of less pressure on the Fed to try and deal with inflation if the labor market could be a secondary focus." (14:50)

• Trend Investment Insights

  • Equities, energy, and fixed income trends have rotated through June.
  • The only clear new trend: strengthening of the U.S. dollar after a hard stretch.

• Equity Market Structure

  • There’s been a “constructive drift” to the bull market, but rotation among leaders is clear:

    “The strength of trends are relatively strong, not at high, high levels. But you are seeing some sort of rotation amongst trend signals...” (17:17)

• Cautious Equity Outlook

  • Kaminski is “moderate bullish” on equities due to volatility and reversals—“not an all systems go trend.”

• Gold as a Busted Trade

  • Negative view on gold, considering it “kind of a busted trade” this year (18:46), but thinks it could return later.

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III. Christina Campman: Fixed Income Opportunities

(Starts at 19:38)

• Resilience of Labor Market

  • Campman agrees with Sahm that the jobs report isn't a "shift report." The labor market has shown more resilience than many expected:

    "[T]he labor market has proved to all of us in the last six months that it is more resilient even with today’s number." (20:47)

• Tactical Fixed Income Approaches

  • The current global environment is “rangy,” requiring more active, tactical management.
  • U.S. fixed income looks “rich”—no term premium in the yield curve. More value seen abroad, particularly in Europe, UK, and Australia:

    "Europe offers value. We've gotten one hike from the ECB...the curve is too flat [in the U.S.]." (21:53, 22:42)

• Credit Sector Caution

  • Underweight on credit given tight spreads—prefers to be selective and cautious.

• Memorable Moment: (lighthearted)

  • Campman confirms Villanova basketball pride and the importance of life and sports moments over pure financial news. (24:53–25:35)

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IV. Margaret Patel: Dividend Stocks and Earnings Strength

(Starts at 27:11)

• Dividends Remain Attractive

  • Despite competition from higher interest rates, dividend growth stocks look attractive due to continued strong corporate earnings:

    “Corporate earnings are going to continue to be strong. They've surprised on the upside for several quarters now even with relatively modest GDP growth." (27:28)

• Favored Sectors

  • Patel prefers hard tech/hardware, industrials, aerospace, electrical gear sectors over software for dividend and growth potential.

• “Gloom Crew” Misjudgments

  • She sharply criticizes persistent pessimists predicting imminent downturns:

    “I think they're still wrong. I think people have been expecting a return to the cyclicality where the Fed slams on the brakes...and it just hasn't happened.” (29:36)

• Profit Margins & Inflation

  • Stresses that companies’ ability to raise prices has kept margins intact despite elevated inflation.

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V. Leah Taniguchi: AI, Skills Shifts, and Work’s Future

(Starts at 31:39)

• Bullhorn: Staffing Technology and AI

  • Bullhorn builds software for staffing and recruiting; directly observes job market trends and tech’s effects.

• AI Impact on Jobs

  • Taniguchi rejects "doomsday" forecasts of massive job losses from AI—anticipates more likely a 5–6% reduction and a much larger change in the nature of work:

    “I think every single one of us is going to see 20, 30% of our job, potentially even more, be shifted to doing more of this hybrid human agentic work.” (32:05)

  • She is optimistic that AI, like the internet, will shift but not eliminate human work, emphasizing higher-order skills.

• Shifting Employer Priorities

  • AI tools help Bullhorn analyze millions of job postings; the most sought-after skills now are “flexible thinking, critical and analytical thinking, decision making, leadership, collaboration.” (32:53)
  • Less emphasis on traditional soft skills like communication; more value placed on adaptability and higher-order problem-solving.

• Concluding Perspective

  • Summarizes the market and labor outlook:

    "We don't know [what work will look like]. But I'm an AI optimist...if we manage this right as a society, that’s the same place we’re gonna get to. That being said, I’m not gonna tell you it’s gonna be without pain." (34:31)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “What really matters is that the people out there who are looking for jobs can get jobs and they're good jobs.”
  – Claudia Sahm (08:42)

• "Don't get too hung up on the latest number. Look at averages, look under the hood."
  – Claudia Sahm (07:26)

• "At this moment, having a focus on inflation makes a lot of sense. It is the problem."
  – Claudia Sahm (03:19)

• “Corporate earnings have been very, very strong. In fact, we’ve seen no sign whatsoever...that profit margins are squeezing.”
  – Margaret Patel (29:36)

• “I think every single one of us is going to see 20, 30% of our job...be shifted to doing more of this hybrid human agentic work.”
  – Leah Taniguchi (32:05)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:56] Claudia Sahm on outlook for the labor market and Fed priorities
• [04:17] Sahm on wages and inflation
• [07:26] Discussion of payroll numbers and data revisions
• [11:13] Sahm on impact of declining immigration on labor supply
• [12:55] Sahm's take on near-term Fed & market reaction
• [14:28] Kathryn Kaminski on dollar trends and commodities
• [17:17] Kaminski on equity bull market "drift"
• [19:38] Christina Campman on bond markets and global opportunity
• [27:11] Margaret Patel on dividend stocks and macro resilience
• [31:39] Leah Taniguchi on AI and labor market evolution

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Concluding Takeaways

• The June jobs report points to a cooling but still resilient labor market.
• Persistent inflation—not labor weakness—remains the Fed’s concern.
• Wage growth is not spurring higher inflation; however, real wage gains lag.
• Revisions and underlying labor force dynamics warrant nuance over headline numbers.
• Market experts see tactical, not transformational, shifts—U.S. bonds look rich, equities require careful optimism, and credit spreads are tight.
• Long term, employers want adaptable, critical thinkers—AI will change jobs but boost, not replace, human skills.
• Overall tone: Nuanced optimism, calls for patience, and recognition of a changed but still sturdy economic landscape.

Transcript

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[A]

Joining us now in charge of cats and dogs bugs here at Bloomberg Surveillance, New Century Advisors, Claudia Some. Claudia, I got to give you a victory lap here. 18 months ago people were calling and citing your profound research on recession and you said no. What did the gloom crew get wrong?

[C]

The gloom crew got wrong? What was happening in the labor force, the supply of workers back when I said those increase in unemployment rate, Be careful with that. We've got a lot of immigration, got a lot of workers flowing and some of that increase is good. Not bad. Like with a recession coming, I worry some of the really exuberant crew right now may be getting it wrong in the other direction because the labor force has not been growing as quickly. So the signals like with payroll gains, I think they're good. I don't want to undercut the good, but they're not great. I think that we're just moving around with the labor force. We got to be really careful at a time like that when labor supply is so fluid.

[A]

Disrespectful as the academic from Michigan would be, but nevertheless the message is there on our newly minted chairman. Is he ignoring, as we saw in Sintra yesterday, is he ignoring the employment mandate at the expense of total focus on supply side driven inflation?

[C]

At this moment, having a focus on inflation makes a lot of sense. It is the, it is the problem. I think we could say the labor market's probably pretty close to where the Fed's maximum employment mandate is. I'm uncomfortable about the silence. I'd like to hear the chair say that and not just nothing about the labor market or very sparse on the labor market. One word for it yesterday, steady. That was it. I think it deserves more than that, even if it's in pretty good shape and doesn't require action.

[A]

One of the great miracles is Paul Sweeney's family's employment is employment of the offspring this summer. Paul, is it steady?

[B]

It's steady, it's steady. I can report wages here, Claudia. There was a time when we'd get three and a half percent average hourly earnings year over year and say that's pretty good, but not in today's inflationary environment. How do you think about the wages out there?

[C]

Right. So on average, wages are not keeping up with inflation right now. Now that that comes in large part because we've seen a surge in inflation this year. Right. And there's already signs of the oil prices coming down that we are probably at the high water mark on inflation. But it does show how much that, that context on inflation really matters for how far paychecks go. And I think the other thing to really keep looking at these wage data as we get them, we don't see signs of overheating, we don't see signs of labor shortages. Wages picking up in a way that they could be creating even more cost more inflation. And that's something that the Fed is keeping a really careful. Is not a problem we have right now.

[B]

Talk to us about just inflation in general. How sticky is it in your mind?

[C]

There's, there is a piece of inflation that is, has been quite persistent, not just this year over the last years. I want to say it's something probably like in a half a percentage point range. I mean we're not talking about like right now inflation is running at 4%. A lot of that is temporary. It's tied to energy, it's tied to tariffs. These things are, you know, rolling off. I mean something else could come along, but I mean those things are rolling off. But I think if you look at the data from lots of different directions, there's still about a half a percentage point, a lot of it tied back to some of the service inflation categories that it's just harder to see how that gets chipped away.

[A]

Let's do this. Come back with Claudia Sam here. Christina Kapman and Katherine Kaminsky coming up as well. But right now Dr. Sam with us as we go. We report on the American labor economy. We are going to extend our discussion with Dr. Sam after seeing this jawed up, jaw dropping report. Peter Shear looks like a genius right now with us. An hour ago, futures explode up 23. Dow futures up 164. The Nasdaq up half a percent in the VIX comes into a new low, 16.14. We're going to get a 15 VIX here in a moment. Over on the Sweeney front, the two year yield comes in. All of a sudden, rate increases. What do you think, Paul?

[B]

It feels like they pushed out a little bit here a little bit. The two year comes in about four and a half basis points 4.12%.

[A]

Looking at the data here, we're going to give Dr. Some time to digest it as she does. Claims were steady here on a compressed Thursday Friday wall of data. Continuing claims are depressed as well. Hourly earnings on target. The unemployment rate, as John Tucker said and all that complex math improves from 4.3 to 4.2%. But it is the revisions. That's what I want to focus on with Dr. Saman. We are thrilled from New Century. Claudia Sam is with us for this important report. Again, futures up 23. Claudia, there's nonfarm payrolls and there's two month net revision which gives me a negative statistic. And then we have six months or every year other adjustments. We continue to over guess our labor enthusiasm. Does it surprise you to see a two month net revision that's negative?

[C]

I wouldn't say it's surprising. I mean, you know, revisions are a natural part of the process. We want to get a snapshot on the US economy as quickly as possible with over 150 million workers and tens of millions of businesses like you don't do that in two weeks on the first try. So the revisions are part of the process, getting a clearer and clearer picture. So I, you know, I kind of push back on that. There's a You know, the system's broken. We're always going to get these kind of revisions. We've seen some upward revisions recently too. So, you know, I think there were some things maybe that were a little puzzling in say last month's data. Some, you know, big jump in government employment and so like things, it takes some time to work out the numbers. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't take too much from it. It just all this underscores again, don't get too hung up on the latest number. Look at averages, look under the hood. I think that's a consistent nonfarm.

[A]

Payrolls was 188,003 moving average. That comes down almost 20,064. So that drops down to three months moving average and the new three months moving average is 111,000 and that'll adjust. Dr. Sahm, is that politically acceptable in America to have a 90 day moving average of 111,000?

[C]

What really matters is that the people out there who are looking for jobs can get jobs and they're good jobs.

[E]

Right.

[C]

So the payrolls are kind of a tricky way to read that just because we can have changes in how many people are out there looking for jobs. I still feel like the unemployment rate is a better place to start that conversation than the payroll numbers though. Of course. I mean the differences like it matters to people. Even if you're in the four point, you know, 4.3, 4.2% isn't a lot of unemployed, but if you're one of those, it's a big deal, right? So you're going to, and that may affect your vote. So but I think payrolls is a tough one. And I will say even with the number, the three month moving average apparel is being revised down, that's still well above what estimates were of what we think the labor force is growing at. So that could still be a good number.

[A]

I'm just, you know, Claudia's so young and you're Sweeney, you know, you're just a kid. And the answer is 111,000 is un American. We're supposed to be vibrant at 150, 200, 210. And those days are just evaporated.

[B]

Claudia, how do you think our new Fed chairman and the Federal Reserve is going to view this, this data point,

[C]

this today's report is going to keep their focus squarely on inflation. So there, I mean, you know what you're looking for, red flags, downside, risks. And this, this doesn't show signs of it. I think the one place that I find somewhat disconcerting is, you know, the unemployment rate did tick down to 4.2% but it came with a 310 decline in the labor force participation rate. And so that's, you know, people can retire, people can like go and you know, the changes, that's not a thing the Fed gets involved with. But that, that does give me a little bit of concern just about the again the structure of labor force, the workforce that's out there. So you know, I think they'll keep a watchful eye on this. But this, I don't see red flags in this in terms of them turning attention into problems in the labor market.

[A]

We welcome all of you across America for this American labor economy. A shock report here. Futures up 21, up 25 now. Futures explode up 32. Dow futures up well over 200 points. The NASDAQ puts it on up 210 of a percent is now. Excuse me, I checked that. Up 2. 10 of a percent now up 710 of a percent in the NASDAQ 100. The VIX. I've got a 15 handle on the VIX. There you go, 15.98 plunging now. That'll go through the July 1 nirvana that we saw the other day. Paul Sweeney with Dr. Claudia Sam.

[B]

Claudia, we've seen a real dramatic decline in immigration into this country. How does that impact kind of the supply side of the labor market these days?

[C]

Well, industries that have, you know, rely a lot on immigrant workforce that can cause labor shortages. We haven't seen that kind of at an aggregate level. I think you can point to some industries where you can see some tensions and even showing up. It could be part of the contribution to, you know, construction wages rising faster than overall. But there are other reasons construction wage be rising faster. There's a lot of demand for build out so it's hard to like pull it out in the aggregate statistics. But I think there are, there are hints of it in the in industry level and then, you know, this, this can get a little complicated in terms of the measurement and the data. People need to be willing to participate in government surveys so we can understand their employment. I do worry that kind of the crackdown in immigration may be impairing the statistics some as well.

[A]

So what will the Fed do? I got eight ways to go here, Claudia, in the time. We've got Kathy Kaminsky on hold right now. We'll get to her in a moment. Perfect time to talk to Catherine Kaminsky about the quant view on the market. Dr. Sam, the Fed here, I guess we've got a belief and I'll call it collegial dissent. We need to raise rates. A major Wall street shop looks for three rate increases, etc. How abrupt over holiday weekend will be the market economic shift given this report relating to Fed meetings for the rest of the year?

[C]

I don't think markets should react much to this report. I mean, we have a Fed that has committed to delivering price stability which is getting inflation back to 2% over some period of time. What's it going to take to get it back to 2%? And there is disagreement among the committee about what it's going to take. And today's data does not settle that that argument at all. We're just going to need a lot more information. So have a nice weekend.

[D]

There we go.

[A]

Let's leave it at that.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

How's the cat doing? Did the cat survive the one year old cat food you served?

[C]

She's right over here looking out the window. Puffy's good too. She's having a good weekend.

[A]

Puffy's having a good week. And stay cool, calm and collected. Puffy. Claudia, Sam, we really treasure your work for us and your wisdom for us each and every jobs day. Can't say enough about it. With new Sentry Advisors futures up 28 right now. Dow futures up 206. Nasdaq puts it on up 610 of a percent. It's ebbing. It's Friday. I think people are like halfway out the door.

[B]

Oh, I think you're right.

[A]

You think there's, you know, one of the great things here, folks, is the invention of the Bloomberg terminal at a cottage.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

It sits there like a hood ornament and it's used like once a year. Job stay.

[B]

Exactly.

[A]

In July. And of course the Bloomberg mobile app helps. Fantastic. Excuse me. As well. So I'm lost. What are we doing here?

[B]

Let's go to Katie Kaminsky.

[A]

Okay. With us.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Probably with. She went to mit so you know she is air conditioned.

[B]

Exactly. Katie Kaminsky joins us here, chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex here. Katie, million ways to go here. Tom and I earlier this morning. We're talking about the US Dollar and the strength of the dollar. What are you seeing out there? It's weaker today. But what do you see out there in terms of just trends in the currency markets?

[F]

This is a good point. We did actually see the dollar strengthen a lot over the last month. That was particularly interesting specifically for commodities. I think that also helped kind of cause some reversal in the commodity trends as well because it makes commodities more expensive when the dollar rallies like that, we are seeing the opposite move today. My view is this is much more of a call on the labor market data and this idea that, you know, this puts a little bit of less pressure on the Fed to try and deal with inflation if the labor market could be a secondary focus. So right from my side, we have seen pot long dollar trends building.

[A]

Christine to be with us here in a bit. And then Veronica Clark will join us from Citigroup. They nailed the jobs report this morning. She's, she's like work from cottage. Yeah.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

I think Veronica, she's in the Hamptons somewhere. You know Kathy, I look at this and if I can talk about your trend expertise. Microsoft is a busted trend. What do you do with Microsoft when it blows to resistance like that or support?

[F]

Well, I think that the challenge is always about balancing the strength of the trend with sort of the frequency of outliers. So when we see trends that are extreme, oftentimes there's not enough data to determine whether or not that trend will continue. Trend as a strategy works much better in the middle of the distribution. So when you're going through sort of a, a thematic trend, but not when you're sort of at the extrema.

[B]

So where are you seeing from your trend perspective, Katie? Where are you guys seeing opportunities in the marketplace these days?

[F]

Well, this is a good question because we had pretty strong trends going into the month of June and we saw, you know, clearly energy has been a big theme that unraveled the last long equity trades have been working but rotating fixed income has been a short view that has abated some with some of the de escalation. And I think the one trend that seems to be emerging that was newer was the long dollar trend. And this idea that the relative positioning of the US dollar could cause it to come back after it's really struggled quite a bit.

[A]

What is a trend structure of the equity market right now? Can you say there's a persistency as somebody mentioned drift earlier? I thought it Kaminsky, is there a constructive drift to this bull market?

[F]

There definitely has been, but it is really differential depending on which which asset you've seen. And so for example, the relative positioning of the Dow Jones versus say Nasdaq has actually reverted some. So we've seen sort of more that pivot recently in equities. So overall the strength of trends are relatively strong, not at high, high levels. But you are seeing some sort of rotation amongst trend signals in terms of which assets are leading the pack.

[B]

Equities continue to move Higher. John Tucker in his reports tells us new time highs, all time highs pretty much every day. What's your equity call here?

[F]

So equities because of the volatility that we've seen is sort of a moderate bullish signal. I'd say that you've seen sort of of it's not all systems go by any means and that's because you've seen a lot of hesitation in the price action you've seen but why you continue to be long equities is because there's always seems to be buying pressure when you have that reversal but these reversals are happening so it's not sort of an all systems go trend. It's definitely you know proceed with caution but still long.

[A]

Katie we're going to have to run here because we've got to follow the immediate market here. Do you have a trend on gold asking for John Tucker? I mean gold is gold busted trade like Microsoft's a busted trade?

[F]

Well gold has been I mean trying to go short I'd say so. I mean I'd say that if you call it a busted trade I'd say it is kind of a busted trade by that definition but who knows it could come back we'll see. It was just so huge last year so I think it deserved a little bit of reversal.

[A]

Katie perfect, thank you so much. Catherine Kaminsky with this Alpha simplex as well I got emotional. Catherine Campman did you know she's in studio today?

[B]

I know I have no heat.

[A]

That's because they're hit the Invesco helicopter could land on top of the towers say out of the key let's do this from the interactive broker studios a jobs day Bloomberg Business flash John Tucker all right the market reaction so we're less rate hikey slower than anticipated increase in jobs driving stocks higher bond yields are falling the 2 year 7 basis points lower for 10 the 10 year yield 2 basis points lower at 445 Dow futures 262 the S P futures up 28 and the Nasdaq futures right now 162 so weaker than expected payrolls report especially with the downward revisions last month causing kind of a knee jerk bull steepening of the yield curve at this point and also interesting note $DXY down 810 of a percent and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that is your Bloomberg Business flash Paul and Tom thank you so much John Tucker Futures of 27 right now There's a persistency to it ebbed away a bit. The Vix 16.00 Christina Catmany with us and we thank her for really coming into the studio today on this odd day. She could add, you know, work from home, work from yacht, whatever, but she's here. Does this jobs report change Kevin Wish's world? Do you look at Claudia? Sam was making clear this is not a shift report. She is a boring economist. But you're in the trenches. Does this change the debate?

[G]

I don't think so. I think she's right. I think the big question here is we're all trying to figure out what what Worcester's messaging is, what he's trying to accomplish. I think he's also trying to figure out how he wants to communicate to the market. It seems clear that he has come out and is speaking very aggressively on the inflation front now is that I'm going to talk very strongly and it buys me time and I don't have to do anything or like I'm ready to shock and all. We don't know that yet. But I think we do live in a different world that we can go into meetings priced 5050 or like I don't think we live in the same world that we're going to go into a Fed meeting at either 0 or 25. And we've been guided handheld and he spoke to that in Sintra yesterday too of during the financial crisis we had to handhold the market. Like that's not the environment anymore. So I think that they're more focused there and the labor market has proved to all of us in the last six months that it is more resilient even with today's number.

[B]

So where do you guys and you guys are global in view. Where do you see the best opportunities in fixing companies?

[G]

So. So I think two things to your point of like we're sitting in the seats and it is versus an economist, it is a more tactical market and I think we're in this kind of rangy market. So we are a bit more active than I think we had been. And then where do we see opportunities? I think if I look at fixed income, the US still to me looks rich and we don't have term premium built in. And I appreciate that we have this like very aggressive speak but I don't know, the curve is too flat. I don't want to own the long end in the US and then I think it makes the rest of the world more interesting. Europe offers value. We've gotten one hike from the ecb. Perhaps we'll get another. And I think that that's it. And more is priced like so Europe, uk, Australia. I think there's other places that are interesting.

[A]

Okay. This is really important because they're at Central and everybody's happy, happy, happy. I was going nuts. I wanted to ask them brutal questions. The fact is the UK is a coupon. Like no, it's like a dream. How does a shop like you handle a 10 year guilt or. You know, I'm making this up a Vodafone piece of 20 years.

[G]

So I think it's weighing and it goes back to the basics of all investment like risk and return. Right. And I think the uk, it definitely offers value and we own some in the front end and some in. I think both pieces offer value because I don't think the Bowie delivers. So the front end is interesting and I think the very long end because you've had changes in the supply dynamics and all of those and we think that the government, even with the change, if you get Burnham in place, will kind of drive it down the middle and will be contained with what's priced. But it is a less liquid market, it is more volatile. I think we have to kind of take that into account when we think about sizing of position and. Right. Like it's a different market to trade.

[B]

You say your underweight credit, does that mean you didn't buy the Space X? You didn't buy all the AI bonds that were issued?

[G]

We haven't as much and I think we think about credit as it's the, the jump risk product within fixed income and I think people don't kind of give it that credence. And again, I grew up in a rates background and look at broad fixed income. So I always am like, I don't the all in yield comment. I understand that investors do behave that way but for us spreads are tight and we think that there's kind of better ways that we can piecemeal things together. So we, we do own credit. We're in the front end but I think we're a bit more cautious there with how tight it is.

[A]

I have to ask this Mrs. Keene emails in and she's going around my cane after Harry Kane. Sure. And that's replacement on the doorknob outside the kitchen sort of towards the West Wing. She's got the Knicks merch going on and she says you have to ask Christine because she sees my notes. I'm up at 2am sure. Preparing for the show. Mrs. Keene wants to know, were you in class with Jalen at Villanova.

[G]

I'm a little older, but we do love our Nova Nicks at home.

[A]

Was he like on campus when you were there? You were a senior and he was a freshman or something like that? No.

[G]

They won their first championship in senior two days before I had my first, my first daughter, which was who was very early. And I was like, of course you had your baby so early. You were out until midnight watching that Villanova game. Like, these are important moments, Mom. But it's a proud time for Villanova community for sure. And they're like very good quality, good human beings, which I think has. Who is Jalen Brunson, Jalen Kale, Joshua?

[A]

I just want to get her going.

[G]

Yeah, all of them.

[A]

Christine, Christina, thank you so much for your commitment to our jobs. They really, really appreciate it. Chris. Christina Campman has the most Nick's merch at Invesco and we thank her for coming. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

[C]

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10am Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[A]

Joining us now too short of is that Margaret Patel joins us, definitive and iconic on generating monthly and quarterly income. Margie its dividends and dividend growth still good. Ample competition to interest and yield?

[E]

Definitely, because I think corporate earnings are going to continue to be strong. They've surprised on the upside for several quarters now even with relatively modest GDP growth. So I think stocks are going to stocks, especially dividend stocks, will continue to outperform fixed income alternatives like what category,

[A]

what sector gives you the best opportunity? The software stocks pay dividends?

[E]

No, I think I prefer the more the secular growth on the hardware side in tech rather than the software. I think there you can see a clearer path for high growth for a number of years. And I think really we're not going to see earnings broaden out, only those companies and sectors that have above average cyclical growth. So I think industrial companies, aerospace and defense related to the electrical gear and of course technology will continue to perform other other parts of the economy which I think will be more flattish and have rather modest stocks growth in earnings.

[B]

Margaret, one of the sectors that historically has been well received by the market that sell on hard times is kind of software in general, but specifically software as a service. As the market tries to kind of dice out a ise as a competitor here, how do you think about software?

[E]

Well, I think that there again you have a broad range of companies. I think the ones the market leaders, you know, say Microsoft, I'll throw in there is probably the best position with that, with a balanced business profile. But we think that the growth will be more modest than a lot of people are thinking. We don't think we're going to see a huge bounce back comparable with what we've seen in some of the other tech stocks.

[A]

Margie, what do you say to the Gloom crew? I mean you, you remember when the Red Sox won five games in a row? I mean you. She remembers Frank Melzone. Oh, she goes back that far. Margie, what do you say to the Gloom crew that's been wrong for 20 years?

[E]

Say that again.

[A]

Tom, what do you say to the Gloom crew that's been wrong for two decades?

[E]

Oh yes, yes. It gives me time to think. I think they're still wrong. I think people have been expecting a return to the cyclicality where the Fed slams on the brakes, floods the system with money and it just hasn't happened. And corporate earnings have been very, very strong. In fact, we've seen no sign whatsoever that with inflation being above the Fed's targets, the profit margins are squeezing. So I think that that's much more important our companies maintaining profit margins, increasing prices because that's what the high inflation is saying to me, that they have the ability to raise prices. And I think the Fed is as warsh is doing is pretty much on the sidelines as far as thinking that a quarter point movement in rates will have some effect on the the whole economy.

[A]

Margie, thank you so much. Good. Breaking news. We got to run to but really, really appreciate it. Always legendary out of Boston, Margaret Patel joins us. We greatly appreciate her efforts today. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. The Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit returns to Singapore on July 22. Our 5th annual Asia Pacific Summit will explore how business and finance leaders are shaping the next phase of globalization by strengthening resilience and driving a multi speed energy transition across Asia's diverse markets. Join us for solutions driven discussions and networking opportunities. Thank you to our Summit advisor, Bangkok bank. Learn [e-mail] SBS Singapore.

[D]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10am Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[A]

Paul and I really making a commitment to talk outside the normal bounds out of Simmons and Bulia. Taniguchi is with Bullhorn, which is a whole different shop. Let's start with that. What's Bullhorn is not JP Morgan. What is Bullhorn?

[H]

Bullhorn is a software company. We produce the staffing and recruitment industry software for customers. So what we do is we create the software that helps place people looking for jobs with recruiters and match them.

[A]

You are in the absolute crosshairs of job replacement with Artificial Intelligence 100. Your opinion of where that's going to be in a year or five years?

[H]

I have a slightly unpopular opinion. I don't have the same doomsday predictions as everyone else that we're going to see 50% reduction in jobs. I think we'll probably see 5, 6% reduction in jobs because they've been replaced by AI. But what I actually think we're going to see even more is a change in the nature of work. I think every single one of us is going to see 20, 30% of our job, potentially even more, be shifted to doing more of this hybrid human agentic work. I know I see it all the time. I use AI every single day and I don't think it's it's put me out of a job yet. It still needs me to ask the question, interpret the results and tell it what to look at next. But it is changing the pace and nature of what I do all the time.

[B]

What are employers looking for these days?

[H]

One of the things that's really interesting is part of our work is that we track job openings across millions of US Job sites and that means we are tracking not only the roles that are being placed, but also the skills that they're looking for. Ironically, we run it through an LLM that helps us make sense of what those skills are. And what we've really seen lately over the last year is a huge increase in a desire for flexible thinking, critical and analytical thinking skills, decision making, leadership, collaboration. People who can work in really complex environments, respond to and pivot according to really rapidly changing market and business data. But we're not seeing as many job descriptions looking for some of those old school fundamental soft skills like communication and writing. They're looking for things that are really sort of higher order skills. And as a proud liberal arts graduate, to me this says, this is the biggest endorsement I've seen in a decade for a liberal arts education. They want people who can think and who can work with technology wherever it goes. Largely, I think because employers don't know what work's going to look like in 12 months, they're not sure what to hire.

[A]

For the Detroit Lions, Blue button. The number one thing I get from family and friends is just what you said. We don't know. I mean, again, you're in the trend, I think, of Concentrics in the Philippines, 120,000 people. And the gloom is it's all going to go away. We're all going to die in call centers and all that. The answers, we just don't know. That's the fundamental issue, right?

[H]

We don't know. But I'm an AI optimist. I think that what it's going to do is shift work the same way this happened when the horse and buggy went away. When this is, I'm old enough to remember when the Internet started and people said, oh no, it's going to. Nobody's going to know how to think anymore. Everyone's just going to rely on it to spit out all of the answers. And that's not what happened. It became a tool and it made some of the human input even more important. And I think if we manage this right as a society, that's the same place we're gonna get to. That being said, I'm not gonna tell you it's gonna be without pain.

[A]

Leah, we gotta go. Got tons of breaking. Dude, I thought this was a quiet Thursday.

[B]

No, not happening.

[A]

Please don't be a stranger. Leah Taniguchi with us with Bullhorn.

[D]

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live each each weekday 7 to 10am Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.