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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
Rebecca Patterson
Rebecca Patterson right now to be kind Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her work at Bridgewater Bessemer JP Morgan over the years thrilled she could join I guess I got to do the Fed meeting. To me it could be dramatic. If he's going to change things, he doesn't want to dawdle around.
Paul
Does he mean I think priority one, two and three this week is reinforce the Fed's credibility. You don't want any questions about any political bias. So that's that's goal number one for Kevin Warsh this week, I think, which he should be able to execute beautifully. I think beyond that, if he does a press conference, I expect he will, but it's not a given. If he does a press conference, then that'll be his opportunity to lay out the priorities. What is he going to focus on first? I would imagine he wants to review all the economic models, the processes. He's going to review communication. He's already been very vocal about having less communication.
Rebecca Patterson
Think more, speak less it has been for years.
Paul
Yes.
Rebecca Patterson
It's not a new thing, Paul.
Paul
The balance sheet will wait.
Tom
Yeah. So, Rebecca, obviously he's got some level of pressure from the President, from the White House to lower rates, but the data is not there. He's got a committee he has to deal with.
Paul
Yep.
Tom
I would think the messaging this week is as much for the rest of us that is the market, maybe even more so for the President.
Paul
Yeah. I mean, he's got a difficult needle to thread here.
Unidentified Commentator
Right.
Paul
Keep the President on his side ideally, but build credibility and trust with his colleagues at the fomc. I mean, and to your point on the data, I mean, Right now core PCE for May is tracking at around 3.3% year on year. If that's the number that comes in or something like that, there's no way they can cut rates anytime soon. And even if the straight of the hormones. Straight of hormones does open soon, which we all hope it does, and oil prices retreat further, you still have a strong economy now, probably stronger. You have inflation coming through the air channel as well as other channels. And, and so it seems like the market pricing and the possibility of a hike makes a lot more sense. So that is going to be a challenge for Chairman Warsh for sure.
Tom
About the U.S. dollar here. We kind of came into the year, I guess the consensus on the street was for a weaker dollar. And then the war with Iran starts and we had that flight to quality like we typically see now.
Ryan Reynolds
What?
Paul
Well, the dollar, until the news over the weekend was down or, sorry, was down against only two major currencies, the Norwegian crown and the Australian dollar, both big commodity exporters. It was stronger against everything else, primarily on rate expectations. Higher interest rates following higher energy prices and broader inflation pressures. Now that that is off the table, you have seen yields, as you guys just mentioned, down a little bit. You are seeing the dollar down a little bit today. And the question again, it goes back to the Fed, do we have a hawkish bias in the press conferen or not? I think the rate expectations will continue to be pretty important for the dollar going ahead. And again, it's not just the U.S. right. Two sides to every currency trade. We expect a Bank of Japan hike this week. The ecb, the European Central bank just raised rates. So it's not clear how much stronger
Rebecca Patterson
the dollar gets out of Florida and Johns Hopkins. I mean, there was this idea that if you end a war, even as Kaplan says, a middle war, the idea is you get a disinflationary tendency. So not. Rebecca Patterson. Now it's cfr.
Paul
Yeah.
Rebecca Patterson
But if you're on Wall street right now in what's clearly a boom investment banking environment, do you just assume disinflation?
Paul
I wouldn't assume anything right now. Look, we have, we have some tweets and some headlines suggesting that we have a step forward towards peace. But the deal isn't supposed to be signed till Friday and even then it's not clear yet if it sticks. It's not clear what the terms are going to be. I mean, Iran wants and needs funding. I think they could still pressure to have some sort of fee, service fee to go through the strait, not atoll, a service fee.
Rebecca Patterson
And Paul, this is really Rick Wilson just out on Twitter with just a scathing quick note like where are the details? Yeah, when do we get the details? I don't have an answer.
Paul
And we might not first for 60 days, 90 days. Right.
Rebecca Patterson
The markets will flip right around if we do that.
Paul
Well, they may do that. Right. And that's the point. Oil has come down, stocks are up. Does it last? Do you want to chase it here? I mean, if the, if we have peace, and it's certainly in both sides interest to have peace. Iran desperately needs money. It needs to rebuild. The US does not want oil at a 4 handle or 30 year yields at a 5 handle. Going into midterms.
Tom
Gold, it seems like just a cup of coffee goes. Tom would say we were at $5,000 an ounce. We've seen a pullback here. 4,300. Yeah.
Paul
Yeah. I mean you had a lot of speculative money go into gold at the beginning of the year. We had a little bit of a parabolic move. So that was part of it. But the other part of it is we did have two big central banks, Russia and Turkey selling. Russia sold for four months in a row. Turkey was the biggest seller of gold in March. But those are the outliers. Central banks in general are continuing to buy.
Rebecca Patterson
Bloomberg surveillance across this nation. And for San Antonio, 3am at a diner, Anne Marie Horton tried to get over the hangover. Joining us now with Rebecca Patterson in studio is Annmarie Horton who was. Yeah. Doing a seminar in Houston.
Annmarie Horton
Houston.
Rebecca Patterson
Can you get me tickets to San Antonio? I'll take an Uber. How did you get from Houston to San Antonio?
Paul
I.
Annmarie Horton
Our friend drove me.
Rebecca Patterson
Your friend drove?
Annmarie Horton
Yeah. So a friend saw that I was in Houston, also saw I was at game three with the president and said, I'm going to game five, why don't you come? And I made a game time. Game time decision. Saturday morning, and I was like, you know what? Like, I'm so close.
Rebecca Patterson
Were you sitting with Prince Harry?
Annmarie Horton
I was not sitting with Prince Harry. Oh, yeah, you texted me. I saw him. I saw Spike Lee. I was sitting more by Patrick Ewing, which was pretty amazing.
Paul
But did he block your view?
Annmarie Horton
He did not block my view. He was actually behind me. So I will say San Antonio was the sixth borough on Saturday night.
Julian Lee
It was.
Annmarie Horton
Had to be 50%, maybe 75% New York Knick fans. And the first quarter or two, obviously we were behind, but we've been there before, and it was a little. A little intense. And then Jalen Brunson does what he does. This team works together so well, and they clinched it. It was incredible.
Rebecca Patterson
You have to call him my jalen. Mrs. Keene is calling my Jalen this week.
Annmarie Horton
My Jalen.
Rebecca Patterson
Emory Horden, I've gotta ask, what was in the arena? The energy that was not captured for America on tv.
Annmarie Horton
I think what was not captured was the moment you realized they were about to become champions after 53 years. There was literally tears from New Yorkers and their faces. Grown men just absolutely crying. One guy next to me was a New Yorker, stayed for the whole thing, moved to San Antonio in 1994. So he was technically there supporting the Spurs. But even he was emotional, and he said, this is pretty bittersweet for me.
Tom
For our fans on radio, I just have to highlight the outfits that are in this studio here. Rebecca Patterson, New York Knick orange, head to toe. Fantastic. Annmarie Hordern comes in, got the blue, the whole thing going, and Tom's got the bling. I mean, I didn't know Tom either.
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You were a Celtics fan.
Tom
Well, we're all Nick fans today.
Paul
Yes. It's upset that I just sold him out.
Rebecca Patterson
One more question for Rebecca Patterson here. The spirit of this, to me, the single missed call and New York City in the gloom was a census of 2020 where everybody, including smart people, said, oh, we added 600,000 in the MSA here. I mean, it's his bet against New York. That's always been there.
Paul
You know what? I think there is a human emotion that you always want to go after whoever's on top. And that could be a company, it could be a person, it could be a city. So it's easy to go after New York. But look, New York's back. People are working five days a week in the office. Real estate prices are coming back. God, I mean, last week, if you tried to get around the city in a cab or even on the subway. It was packed.
Rebecca Patterson
Rebecca, thank you so much. Rebecca Patterson with us writing for the Council on Foreign Relations, a terrific podcast. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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IBM Representative
thing about AI for business it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter Business.
Tom
IBM Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds and crypto, and they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R and D spend small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria, but on Public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market and paid for by
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Bloomberg Host
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10am Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
Rebecca Patterson
The royal strategist Robinhood joins us right now for two shortest visits. Steph Guild with us as well. If I have an end to this conflict, how does it change your six months forward? View your June30 report.
Steph Guild
I think it's, it makes costs a little bit lower for everybody. All those input costs that were elevated obviously should start to come down. I don't think it'll happen right away because it takes a while to restart things. I saw something this morning where Kuwait will take the longest because they're the most impacted. But it, I mean, obviously the market is forward discounting, so the market will care about it now and today and you're seeing it in energy prices and, and energy stocks.
Tom
All right, so let's say we do get some type of resolution here with around a little bit more certainty in that part of the world. That brings the AI story right back to the, you know, the front burner here. How do you guys think about AI at Robinhood? Because that's a story that's kind of morphed over the last several years since we've all become involved with AI. How do you guys position it these days?
Steph Guild
Yeah, I mean, at the company we use it a lot. But when it comes to, you know, I, I subscribe to Huang's five layer case approach and it starts everything from the materials and the energy inputs down to the application layer. And I think at times you're going to have some things that go back and forth like some fits and starts because the physical world just doesn't move as fast as the agentic world. And so I think that's where obviously the conflict in the Middle east impacted that. But I do think we're moving a little closer to the application layer, which is like that, that top end of the layer, which is if you look at a company like Eli Lilly, they have Lilly Pod where they take all of the data they've ever garnered and have, you know, can work with it in AI. I think that's the most powerful aspect of working with AI is when I take all this data and I put it into something that I can talk to. Talking to your data, I think is extremely powerful.
Tom
How do you guys think about just, I mean, what's your approach here? As we go into the second half of 2026 here? Stocks, bonds, alternatives on your platform, what are your clients doing these days?
Steph Guild
I mean, the stock market's been really good, so there's been a lot of buying of stocks. Whenever there's a pullback, we see them use ETFs to kind of add a little bit more exposure, but the buying has never really slowed down. I'd say prediction markets is something that's rising and I see a rising inability to people to put their own views into it. Beyond the sports area. I focus beyond the sports area. So for example, the New York City, I'm sorry, the LA Mayor race was one of the top things in the last week or so. And also the price of bitcoin, the price of oil, like that's kind of where they were playing. And we also have Robinhood Ventures, which is our foray into it's a close end fund and it's our foray into into actually private investments stuff.
Rebecca Patterson
Kill thanks so much With Robinhood driving all of their strategy this morning. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Rebecca Patterson
us live on YouTube from Queen Victoria street in London. Julian Lee joins oil Strategist doesn't describe his expertise on a global sense of flows of hydrocarbon Julian I'm looking at a chart of Brent crude. The obvious question is do we get back to $70 from the present 82? But what I see is a convexity. There's a real acceleration to a lower price. Is it the market getting out front of oil or is the market chasing where oil is going to be?
Julian Lee
I think, you know, at the moment it's perhaps the market getting a little head ahead of oil. There is a growing expectation that this MOU will get signed on Friday and that will result in an opening of the Strait of Hormuz. It's not going to be back to normal immediately, but there is a timescale to get flows back to normal through Hormuz within 30 days that may be optimistic. So I think the the market is starting to price that in. There's a there's still a lot of hesitancy among ship owners. They really want to see a bit more than than just talk about this. I think they may start to change their position come Friday if this deal is signed. And at the moment, you know, we've seen in the newsroom, we've seen three different versions of of what's in this deal. All of them have come from the Iranian side. They're all slightly different. We've had nothing official out of Washington yet. So, you know, there's still plenty of room there, I think, for wrinkles to appear before Friday. And I think that's what shippers are slightly nervous about. The market, I think at the moment is is much more optimistic about a deal being done than they have been for the past month or so.
Tom
Julian I'm looking at just an image on the screen of all the dots representing ships that are in Strait of Hormuz, both sides of it, quite frankly. And there's that are all over the place. Isn't it that the insurance companies who decide if this strait is open or not?
Julian Lee
Well, I think it's a mixture of the insurance companies, certainly the ship owners and to some extent the ship's crews as well. You know Is an owner willing to risk its vessel and its crew by sending it through a waterway that is still to some extent contested? They will want to see much more clarity and, and I think some mechanism of protecting these ships, at least legally, if not physically, before they start to move.
Tom
Julian, do we yet have a good sense of the damage that may have been done to the infrastructure in the energy complex there in that world? Because I'm not sure we're at. But oil goes even if the strait is open?
Julian Lee
Well, I think that's a very good question. I mean there has undoubtedly been damage to some key facilities, certainly liquefied natural gas production in Qatar, some gas and perhaps oil production in the United Arab Emirates, possibly installations elsewhere in the region. The other problem I think is, is not just physical damage, but it's the fact that being unable to get their oil and their gas out of the Gulf, countries have had to scale back production. They've had to shut wells in, they've had to reduce the flow from fields. Once everything opens up again, all of that has to come back into operation. That will take time. We think the shutdowns have been done in a fairly controlled manner. So that shouldn't have damaged the infrastructure, but then it has to be opened in a controlled manner as well in order to avoid surges of pressure that can damage wellheads and pipelines and all that kind of stuff. And that will necessarily slow the process of everything coming back.
Rebecca Patterson
Excuse me, what does it mean for the Pacific Rim, Julian? Obviously the boat's going to come out to Paul's great question on infrastructure. I guess that's distillates and refinery caught her in awe. But how does Singapore feel this morning or Japan?
Julian Lee
Well, I think, you know, I think Asia in particular has been hit hard by the, the closure of Hormuz. Most of the oil out of the the Persian Gulf, whether it's from the Arab side or the Iranian side, most of that goes to Asia. And so it is is them is refiners in that part of the world who've been scrabbling around for barrels from elsewhere. I think if, if the strait does open fully and if we start to see oil and gas flowing again, I think refiners in Asia will breathe a huge sigh of relief. The people who perhaps won't will be those in the Kremlin who have enjoyed the surge in prices that this war has brought and have enjoyed some relaxation on sanctions on their oil that has allowed Indian refiners back into to the market and perhaps even some of the, you know, the US Oil companies who have have had a real boost from the higher prices and the demand for U.S. crude.
Rebecca Patterson
Julian, thank you so much. Really appreciate the brief this morning folks. This is the way we start a really interesting week. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Tom
Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R and D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by
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Rebecca Patterson
This is an important conversation. Jim Rowan's with us with Deloitte. And this is on the fundamental issue of revenue for all this AI stuff off the $20 billion Nvidia bond deal today, Jim, on these tokens, to me, there will be price discrimination, there'll be all sorts of levels of usage. When do we start seeing a much more sophisticated pricing of how we use AI?
Jim Rowan
Yeah, thanks for having me on, guys. I mean, I think one of the key things that we're seeing right now in the market is that people are moving from basic AI use cases, you know, chat, simple agentic workflows to thinking about how they apply AI agents across their business functions. And that's seeing a real explosion in the usage of tokens. But it's also going to see the explosion of value creation because we're now talking about real work getting done by agents in the enterprise and really adding efficiency to what we're seeing.
Rebecca Patterson
But do you model price down?
Jim Rowan
You know, we're going to expect to see the cost per token go down over a period of time, but the number of tokens people need continue to increase up. And given the constraints that we see in the data center space, there's going to be a competition there for those tokens for each enterprise to get access to them and use them effectively in their enterprise.
Tom
Jim, I'm going to speak for about 99% of our viewing and listening audience. Can you explain? I don't know what a token is. Neither does anyone.
Jim Rowan
Yeah, what's a token?
Bloomberg Host
Right.
Tom
What is a token and why does it matter?
Jim Rowan
Yeah, think about it. So if you're in front of one of your AI tools and you're putting in some input, that's an input token. So you're asking a question, you're asking it to do something, provide some feedback, you've sent it a picture and you want some help with something, that's an input token. And then the Response back from the, from the large language model is the, is the output token. So organizations price it on both the input and the output. So if you think about a closed source model, they're charging you for the input that you're putting in, the output that you're taking out. If you think about an open source model, that's where some organizations are finding success, putting models inside their enterprise and running their own kind of AI factories where they're running essentially these tokens without having to go outside the enterprise to, to pay those fees.
Tom
So is this our token costs now a line item on my PNL that I have to manage?
Jim Rowan
Sure, yeah. Like when I talk to a lot of CIOs and enterprises that I'm working with, they're looking at their overall token budget much like they were looking at their cloud budget that they were dealing with over the past couple of years. And so they're saying, you know, how much money do I need to set aside for the tokens for my employees? But also it's not just the amount of tokens that you're using, it's am I getting the value for the token that I'm putting in? Right. Like what's the actual output that I'm getting that helps my enterprise?
Rebecca Patterson
Jim Rowan this weekend, Sir Lewis Hamilton did awfully well at Barcelona for Ferrari. And on the top of his helmet is his personal endorsement from Perplexity. So I guess they're behind now. They're not like Apple, but they're behind. Where are we going to be in what is Deloitte say in five years about where the Perplexities and all the matter and all the other non players, where are they going to be?
Jim Rowan
Well, I mean, you have to break down the market into a couple of different sets of companies, right? So you have your frontier model, organizations that are advancing the capabilities of these labs. You have the hyperscalers that are out there, you have open source providers as well. And so we think there's going to be continued advancement on the model Frontier. You continue to get better. You see this release after release with the new capabilities that are out there at the same point in time, organizations and other capabilities, like other software companies, are adding a layer above the model of what we call an agentic harness or a wrapper around the model that allows you to do tool calling, maintain memory, really complex technology related things. And those are the areas where they're trying to differentiate, to say that beyond the model, these are the things I have to offer you that can create value for you.
Tom
So Tokens allow me to measure the cost of my AI usage. Are companies, is it possible to measure them the value? I mean, is that what they're trying to do now?
Paul
Yeah.
Jim Rowan
I mean it's a complex equation, right? You put your tokens in, you're not going to get an immediate ROI back out in a calculator. What you need to figure out is what are the workflows like where am I applying this technology today and how is the work getting done differently in a more efficient and effective way? Or am I opening up new areas of revenue growth through the usage of those tokens? And so that's where the application of both where am I spending? But then what's the business value creation side becomes so a big question for clients.
Rebecca Patterson
You people did a great essay. I loved what Deloitte did on this. Are we going to compete away the profits of I just compete them away to a perfectly competitive analog?
Jim Rowan
I don't think you can beat them away. I mean in our token economics paper that we had back in January, we did an infrastructure survey back in March too. We're seeing a large number of the token volume increase. But it's really what the enterprises add their IP to this conversation that really differentiates what they're trying to do. And so the model is going to be the model. But what do you wrap around it? Where's your internal intelligence that you're adding to the model to differentiate your services and that that's the key piece.
Rebecca Patterson
I think I'm going to put this paper out folks, January of this year from Deloitte. I'm sure they'll do an update at some point. Jim Rowan, thank you Gold Principal US Head of AI at Deloitte. This paper was absolutely fabulous on tokens.
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Steph Guild
Com.
Date: June 15, 2026
Hosts: Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney
Key Guests: Rebecca Patterson (Council on Foreign Relations), Steph Guild (Robinhood), Julian Lee (Oil Strategist), Jim Rowan (Deloitte)
This episode provides an in-depth look at two major themes:
(01:49–04:03)
Maintaining Central Bank Credibility:
Policy Dilemmas:
Market Impacts:
Notable Quotes:
(04:03–06:43 & 13:12–20:41, 24:31–24:45)
Conflict and Energy Prices:
Deal Uncertainty:
Oil Market Recovery Timeline:
Impact on Asia:
(04:03–06:43)
Currency Movements:
Gold Volatility:
(13:12–16:18, 27:45–33:22)
Energy Prices, Inflation, and Corporate Costs:
AI Investment and Application:
Retail Investor Behavior:
(27:45–33:22)
Token Economics:
Value Measurement and Market Evolution:
Competitive Dynamics:
(07:13–09:33)
This episode offers a comprehensive, real-time take on the intersection of geopolitics, macroeconomics, and investment strategy. The conversations provide clarity on the uncertainties facing the Fed, oil markets, and retail behavior, while deep dives into AI token economics highlight the profound changes underway in enterprise operations. Human interest moments and cultural touchstones—such as the Knicks win and New York’s revival—create a lively, engaging tone alongside rigorous analysis.