Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks – Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan Talks AI, Private Markets

Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management
Episode Theme: The state of private markets, challenges and opportunities in credit, the impact of AI and technological change, global investment trends, and Apollo’s evolving role in finance.

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep-dive conversation with Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, focusing on the rapid expansion of private markets, shifting dynamics in global credit, the ongoing impact of technological change (notably AI), and reflections on industry evolution—including risk, consolidation, and culture at Apollo. Rowan provides candid insights into current market disruptions, investment strategies, and the future shape of finance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitics, Markets, and Economic Outlook

• The economic backdrop remains strong by the numbers, but Marc Rowan highlights that traditional measures—like employment and capital spending—are only part of the picture.
  • “If you look at the numbers, things are great…But now…it's only 70% of what you need to worry about. The other 30% is geopolitics. It's government borrowing, its excesses in capital markets, and it's technological change.” (01:03)
• On current geopolitical conflict (Iran): Rowan is not more concerned about this than about trade disruptions; he sees it as a problem that needed to be addressed, even though it brings instability. (01:52)

2. Government Borrowing and Inflation Risks

• Government borrowing is not currently an acute worry but is something to monitor, with Western deficits continuing and the historical example of Japan as precedent.
• Despite typical expectations, inflationary pressures from borrowing, restricted trade, and limited labor mobility have not fully materialized.
• Credit investors aren’t being paid for these risks beyond coupons and principal, indicating a "risk-off" environment.
  • “[Capital markets] are wide open. That's normally 95% of what you need to worry about, but…it's only 70%...the other 30% is geopolitics...government borrowing, …technological change.” (01:03)
  • “If you're a credit investor wearing your credit hat, you don't get paid other than your coupon and your principal.” (02:57)

3. Credit Market Dynamics and Private Credit

• Rowan sees companies and consumers as healthy but warns we may be at the end of a long period of accommodative credit.
• Private credit is often conflated with riskier, levered lending, but most of private credit is, in fact, investment grade.
  • “Credit is just credit. There are good underwriters of credit and there are bad underwriters of credit.” (05:15)

The Software Sector Shakeout

• Recent AI advances have precipitated a major correction in software sector valuations. The overrepresentation of software in the leveraged buyout and lending markets has made this sector particularly vulnerable.
  • “[Software] was 30% of the levered buyout market, therefore it was 30% of the levered lending market...It's just overrepresented and subject to attack.” (06:10)

Digital Infrastructure & Underwriting

• Rowan is less wary of digital infrastructure compared to software, provided underwriting is prudent and tied to strong counterparties (like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft).
  • “There are a number of very strong US tech companies who run diversified businesses…To the extent they are prepared to lend their credit, one can lend against those types of things and make sensible underwriting decisions.” (06:54)

4. Structural Evolution of Credit & Private Markets

• Post-GFC Reforms Worked: Risks from below-investment-grade lending have been moved out of banks and distributed via instruments like CLOs and private BDCs, thus “democratizing” risk and de-risking both the economy and individual investors.
  • “Credit…in these private BDCs is a de-risking activity for the economy and for individuals…It's de-risking because it moved it off bank balance sheets…democratized it throughout our economy.” (09:35)
• Most private market assets are now investment grade; only a small (but headline-grabbing) slice is risky leveraged lending.
  • “The vast majority of the private market is investment grade...99% of the headlines are focused on a little slightly slice of a trillion and a half called levered lending.” (08:42)

Private Credit vs. Public Markets

• Recent corrections are more similar to the dot-com era equity correction than a debt crisis.
• There is no “free lunch”: risks exist, but diversified exposure to private assets can deliver better outcomes for investors, including 401(k)s.
  • “Every place that private assets have been added to public portfolios, you've gotten better outcomes…Public is not safe or risky. Private is not safe or risky. They're both safe or risky. They're just differing degrees of liquidity.” (15:41)

5. Consolidation, Competition & Culture

• Rowan anticipates consolidation in the industry as happened with banks, but sees limits:
  • “This is a function of structural change in our marketplace and that structural change is continuing and the reward for good work is actually more work…this will be a shakeout.” (18:48)
• Growth in private markets will be constrained not by capital raising but by the ability to originate quality investments and by maintaining organizational culture.
  • “We can only grow as fast as we can originate good risk we actually create…Growing…should be judged by our capacity to originate good investments, not by our capacity to raise money. But…the second piece…is culture.” (20:10, 20:58)

The Importance of Underwriting and Risk Management

• Survival and success hinge on disciplined underwriting, not chasing high yields or leverage.
  • “If 30% of your portfolio is in one industry and that one industry is being impacted by technology, you have not been a good risk manager.” (17:59)
• “Jamie Dimon said there's always going to be fraud, there's always going to be underwriting mistakes. But…the question is who's a good risk manager and who's not…” (17:32)

6. Apollo’s Evolution and Risk Appetite

• Apollo’s position has shifted from being a “buccaneering shop” at the forefront of risk to pioneering intelligent, creative investment-grade products—particularly connected with insurance and retirement income solutions.
  • “…We originated a little over $300 billion of new investments, mostly credit. 80% of that was investment grade. I assure you no one is complaining about the lack of buccaneering.” (14:18)

7. Comparisons to Banks and the Public Good

• There are parallels between private investment firms and banks (e.g., loan origination, asset distribution), but Apollo does not take deposits or benefit from government guarantees.
  • “Unlike a public asset manager who can buy anything any day, we can only grow as fast as we can originate good risk we actually create.” (20:12)
  • “The everything, everyone in the financial market, if you're not solely a trader, you're an investor. That's what we are at the end of the day.” (22:35)
• Rowan argues that large private market participants serve a fundamental public good—addressing the global retirement crisis by delivering more robust fixed income and retirement solutions.

8. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On risk and market cycles:
  • “We are at the end potentially of a very long accommodative cycle in credit. And in every cycle you have people who move out on the risk curve, who ignore things that are obvious…” (04:38)
• The inevitability of mistakes:
  • “We can't legislate out of existence stupidity.” (09:05)
• AI and rapid technological change:
  • “We're essentially spending every dollar since the creation of FIRE and we're doing it all at once. And whatever we're doing in the US they want to do in Europe…We will see the largest need for capital ever.” (06:38)
• Culture as a differentiator:
  • “The ability to attract the best people, have them want to come to work, have them spend their whole careers at Apollo is the primary job that I have.” (21:22)
• On the Epstein controversy:
  • “Even from the grave, he's wasting my time.” (25:34)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Geopolitics and Market Outlook – 01:03 to 01:52
• Government Borrowing & Inflation – 02:14 to 03:33
• Credit Market Discussion (Public & Private Credit) – 03:55 to 07:48
• Structural Reforms & Private Credit Safety – 08:25 to 11:52
• Retail Investors, Private Credit, and Risks – 13:20 to 17:04
• Consolidation and Industry Evolution – 18:38 to 21:30
• Apollo vs. Banks; Serving the Public Good – 21:30 to 24:08
• Culture and the Epstein Question – 24:08 to 25:38

Conclusion

Marc Rowan presents a sober yet optimistic view of the evolving private credit markets and the growing institutionalization of finance. He emphasizes prudent risk management, the enduring importance of culture and underwriting, and the role of private markets in serving broader economic and societal needs. Rowan underscores that change, consolidation, and technological upheaval are inevitable, but careful stewardship can generate strong outcomes—for both investors and the broader economy.

End of Summary