Podcast Summary

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks
Episode: Apollo President Talks Credit Market
Guest: Jim Saltzer, President of Apollo Global Management
Air Date: November 5, 2025
Host(s): Bloomberg Host, Lisa (Co-Interviewer or Analyst)

Overview

This episode centers on the recent Q3 earnings from Apollo Global Management, which have surpassed Wall Street expectations as the firm nears the milestone of $1 trillion in assets under management (AUM). Jim Saltzer, Apollo’s President, offers deep insight into credit markets, the evolving role of origination in finance, risk management, credit cycles, and the impact of macroeconomic and sector trends on lending and investment strategies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apollo’s Growth and Origination-Focused Strategy

Timestamps: 00:29–02:57

• Performance and Milestones:

  • Apollo's business model is accelerating, driven by strong investor returns and origination prowess.
  • "Assets under management are just a great vote of confidence for great performance. And if you deliver for investors over time... the flywheel of our business is really in place." (Jim Saltzer, 00:48)
  • The company is close to hitting $1 trillion in AUM but emphasizes origination quality over raw asset size.

• “We are what we originate”:

  • Origination is now considered a “key attribute of success” for Apollo, surpassing mere asset growth.
  • There’s a focus on generating proprietary, scalable origination spanning investment grade private credit, private equity, and more.

• Global Perspective:

  • Saltzer highlights the global shift towards private capital and the central role of origination, referencing recent travels through nine countries to underscore international momentum.

2. Proprietary Origination vs. Agent Models

Timestamps: 02:57–04:41

• Breakdown of Credit

  • Apollo divides credit into investment grade (80% of origination) and non-investment grade (20%).
  • Spreads remain strong, with minimal degradation even as the platform scales:
    • Mid-300 basis points for investment grade
    • Mid-400 basis points for non-investment grade

• Principal vs. Agent:

  • “In our model where we're the origination principle ... it allows you really to have a much greater degree of control of documentation and return and yield.” (Jim Saltzer, 04:13)
  • Apollo’s approach enables more influence over the outcomes, contrasting traditional agent or vendor models where investors only negotiate price for pre-packaged deals.

3. Credit Cycles, Macro Risks, and Market Resilience

Timestamps: 04:41–06:06

• Credit Cycle Duration:

  • Saltzer notes the long credit expansion since the Global Financial Crisis, acknowledging inevitable issues but seeing no imminent systemic risk.
  • “We are not seeing any kind of credit cycle on the horizon that's waning anytime soon.” (Jim Saltzer, 05:44)

• K-shaped Economy:

  • Recognition of economic divergence, referencing Apollo’s Chief Economist Torsten's comments, and emphasizing a strong macro environment with a pro-business U.S. administration.

4. Sector-Specific Risk and Caution

Timestamps: 06:06–07:31

• Concentration Risks and Valuations:

  • Questions surface around over-concentration in sectors like data centers and AI, with anecdotal worries from lenders like Deutsche Bank.
  • “When you see a massive impulse infusion of capital into a sector... you have to think about debt and equity returns on invested capital.” (Jim Saltzer, 06:09)
  • High valuations require lenders to be more senior and secured; greater caution is warranted in non-investment grade and cyclical sectors.

• Geopolitical and Rate Stability:

  • Higher geopolitical risks and an expectation of steady (not dramatically lower) interest rates for the next two years inform Apollo's defensive credit positioning.

5. Asset Depreciation and Structural Finance Considerations

Timestamps: 07:14–08:51

• Technology Assets:

  • The team differentiates between financing data centers (longer useful lives, infrastructure-like) and hardware (e.g., GPUs) with rapid depreciation.
  • “How you fund and structure both... is very, very different. And I think that's the subtlety behind the headlines which is going to differentiate the winners and losers.” (Jim Saltzer, 07:45)
  • Apollo is highly focused on residual value risk and structuring deals appropriately to avoid losses.

• Capital Cycle Wisdom:

  • Saltzer underscores the cyclical influx of capital into hot sectors and the challenge of predicting long-term winners, especially when valuations are stretched.

6. Market Behavior and Risks from Aggressive Debt Issuance

Timestamps: 08:51–09:37

• Rising Debt Offerings:

  • Co-interviewer Lisa observes a flood of new debt offerings, raising concerns about less prudent lending from others in the market.
  • “Those debt offerings are absolutely flooding. And frankly, there is a real question about whether there's behavior that potentially isn't as prudent as what you're doing that could potentially pose some sort of risk to the rest of the market.” (Lisa, 08:54)

• Tech Behemoths Entering Credit Markets:

  • Recent benchmark transactions from ‘Mag 7’ tech giants prompt questions about corporate strategy and long-term return on capital.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Origination vs. AUM:

  • “It's not about AUM. It's about your ability to really generate very proprietary, scalable origination across the spectrum.” (Jim Saltzer, 01:40)

• On Control in the Origination Model:

  • “It allows you really to have a much greater degree of control of documentation and return and yield. And that's going to suit us well over time.” (Jim Saltzer, 04:16)

• On Credit Cycle Outlook:

  • “We are not seeing any kind of credit cycle on the horizon that's waning anytime soon. We are not seeing it.” (Jim Saltzer, 05:44)

• On Sector Risk and Valuation:

  • “Valuations are high, you have to be a bit more cautious, you want to be a lot more senior, you want to be secured.” (Jim Saltzer, 06:27)

• On Asset Structuring:

  • “How you fund and structure both of those is very, very different... that's really what will differentiate the winners and losers.” (Jim Saltzer, 07:45)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Apollo’s Business Model & Origination: 00:29–02:57
• Difference Between Principal and Agent in Credit: 03:12–04:41
• Current Credit Cycle Assessment: 05:01–05:48
• Sector Risk & Macro Trends: 06:06–07:14
• Financing and Asset Depreciation in Tech: 07:31–08:51
• Market Risk from Debt Issuance: 08:51–09:37

Tone and Style

Jim Saltzer speaks with a measured confidence, mixing technical insight with industry perspective. The tone is candid, focusing on the long-term strategic and risk management aspects of credit origination and financial innovation, while the co-interviewers challenge and contextualize with real-world market concerns.

This engaging discussion is essential for listeners tracking the evolution of credit markets, institutional asset management trends, and the strategic mindsets of global finance leaders.