Bloomberg Talks: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan Talks 2026 Outlook, AI & More

Date: December 23, 2025
Host: David Westin
Guest: Brian Moynihan, Chair & CEO of Bank of America

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, covering his 2026 economic outlook, the transformative impact of AI, consumer behavior, interest rates, and policy risks. Moynihan shares insights from Bank of America’s vantage point as one of the largest financial institutions, delving into both macroeconomic trends and specific innovations shaping the bank and broader economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Outlook for 2026

• Moynihan’s team forecasts robust US GDP growth:
  • “Their projection for 26 is a strong economy, 2.4% US GDP growth.” (01:10)
  • US growth is expected to outpace other major economies like the Eurozone and Japan, which are predicted to experience flat or negative growth.
• Drivers of Growth:
  • Strong consumer spending and “the great American engine of capitalism.”
  • AI investments will increasingly contribute to economic growth in coming years, though currently a marginal but strengthening factor.

2. Artificial Intelligence: Investment & Impact

• AI's current and future contribution:
  • AI investment seen as a “marginal impact” now, but “a bigger contributor next year and the years beyond.” (02:11)
  • US AI spending is on the rise; infrastructure like data centers is expanding.
• Bank of America’s AI journey:
  • Early adopter, with digital assistant Erica now handling millions of queries.
  • AI enhances both customer-facing products and internal operations (e.g., employee IT support).
  • “We deployed AI more than five years ago with a product called Erica… Over the last 24 hours, Erica interfaced with 2 million Bank of America consumers…” (11:11)
• Measured adoption strategy:
  • Emphasis on control and data accuracy: “You have to have your data perfect, you have to have the controls around it so it answers the question right.” (11:40)
  • Relentless but cautious expansion; current applications are closely monitored for efficacy and safety.

3. Consumer Health & Trends

• Bank of America’s unique visibility:
  • Tracks $4.5 trillion in annual consumer spending across 70 million customers.
• Strong consumer health:
  • Spending up 4–5% over last year, indicating a “very solid growing economy.” (03:31)
  • Wage growth continues, though labor markets are “normalizing.”
• Nuances by income group:
  • Highest and middle income segments see faster growth, though even the lower third is still growing.
  • “In the end of day it’s going to work against wage growth. And we see… wage growth, that is, their paychecks are going up…” (03:45)

4. Labor Market and Policy Environment

• Labor market “normalizing”:
  • Unemployment hovering around 4.5–4.6%, which is historically low.
  • Fed likely to cut rates in the first half of 2026, providing further economic stimulus.
• Small & Medium Businesses optimistic:
  • Interest rate cuts are particularly beneficial to these businesses, improving access to credit and supporting hiring.
  • “Small medium sized businesses are pretty optimistic about next year… those small business are backbone of the US economy.” (06:45)

5. Bank of America’s Strategy & Growth Drivers

• Success rooted in organic growth:
  • Focus on gaining more clients and increased engagement per client.
  • “What they need to do is go out and get one more client and do one more thing with every client we have.” (07:35)
• Interest rate sensitivity:
  • Bank will benefit from a “normal” rate curve (~3% Fed funds rate, 4–4.5% 10-year Treasury), especially due to its $2 trillion in deposits, of which $1 trillion are low/no-interest—a profitable environment.

6. $13 Billion Annual Technology Spend

• Investment split:
  • ~$9–10 billion for infrastructure, security, and “running the environment”
  • $4 billion for “initiatives… the things my teammates love to talk about,” i.e., innovative products, features, AI.
• Strict ROI discipline:
  • Every project assessed for revenue, cost savings, or simplification.
  • “We literally look at every project… what’s the payback in terms of additional revenue, additional expense or simplicity?” (09:30)

7. Topline vs. Cost Savings from AI

• Short term: Cost savings and process efficiency.
• Long term:
  • More revenue generation through enhanced client service, better preparation for meetings, and innovative offerings.
  • “Over time it’ll be much more about enhancing the revenue side.” (13:17)

8. AI and Jobs

• Job displacement vs. creation:
  • Historical perspective: Despite major tech advances, US employment has doubled in 50 years.
  • “We employ twice as many people. So the question will be, will you have more people doing different types of jobs?” (14:38)
  • Moynihan’s advice: “Learn it, harness it, make it your agent to help you be more successful.” (14:56)

9. AI Investment Risks

• Potential overinvestment:
  • Major risk would be an overheated AI sector leading to retrenchment.
  • For now, exposure is limited to specific firms and well-funded projects; bank monitors borrower leverage and contract quality.
  • “We look at the leverage on these projects… make sure that we’re comfortable with that…” (16:04)

10. Policy Risks & Upside

• Upside risk:
  • Further deregulation seen as the “biggest one still yet to come for business…” (17:21)
  • Coordinated policies on tax, trade, and immigration have settled, aiding certainty.
• Policy uncertainty:
  • Small businesses now better understand tariffs, but still adjusting to supply chain shifts and labor availability.
  • “Their biggest worry… is to get employees. And that has a bit to do with settling in on the immigration policy…” (18:06)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI’s transformative pace:
  • “It’ll be a little slower build out to think people see. But a relentless build up…” – Brian Moynihan (12:40)
• On workforce adaptation to AI:
  • “Learn it, harness it, make it your agent to help you be more successful.” – Brian Moynihan (14:56)
• On macro risks:
  • “At the end of the day, the earnings growth is what will drive the market…” – Brian Moynihan (16:44)
• On deregulation as a growth driver:
  • “If that works the right way, then you’ll see the US kick another level of potential growth…” – Brian Moynihan (17:22)

Key Timestamps

• US Economic Outlook & AI’s Role: 01:06 – 03:07
• Consumer Health & Spending: 03:22 – 05:37
• Labor Market and Fed Policy: 05:54 – 07:17
• Bank of America Growth Strategy: 07:29 – 08:09
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: 08:20 – 09:03
• Technology Investment & ROI: 09:17 – 10:34
• AI Vision and Applications: 10:49 – 12:50
• Topline vs. Cost Savings from AI: 13:03 – 14:18
• AI, Jobs, and Economic History: 14:33 – 15:34
• Managing AI Investment Risk: 15:52 – 17:04
• Policy Risks/Upside: 17:14 – 18:59

Summary Takeaway

Brian Moynihan remains bullish on the US economy, attributing strength to consumer resilience and a coming wave of AI-driven gains. He advocates cautious but relentless adoption of technology, believes the labor market will continue to prove adaptable, and sees further policy clarity—especially deregulation—as a catalyst for future growth. Bank of America remains firmly committed to innovation as a competitive driver, and Moynihan views smart risk management as key in this era of rapid transformation.