BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks ETFs, Consumer Sentiment

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks — BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks ETFs, Consumer Sentiment

Date: June 15, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Rick Rieder, CIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock

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Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation with Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income CIO, on the state of various financial markets following a period of heightened volatility, dramatic equity rallies, and the announcement of a major peace agreement affecting global sentiment. The discussion traverses the impact on central banks, inflation dynamics, Fed policy under new chair Kevin Warsh, the balance sheet, shifting consumer sentiment, opportunities in bond and equity markets, and Rieder’s take on Bitcoin and ETF flows.

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Key Topics & Insights

1. Market Reaction to Peace Agreement and Asset Classes

• (00:26–01:51)
  • Markets have responded to the peace agreement with significant rallies—S&P 500 up nearly 2%, NASDAQ 100 over 3%, and a drop in bond yields.
  • Rieder observes explosive market moves when good news “unlocks” sidelined cash:

    “There is so much cash that’s sitting on the sidelines… when you get a good piece of news and people say, ‘gosh, I can get into the pool.’ And it’s pretty explosive when you see it happen...”
    (Rick Rieder, 00:59)

  • Notes large amounts in money market funds ($8–9 trillion) and deposits ($19 trillion), which can rapidly fuel market moves after positive catalysts.

2. Peace Deal as a Gift to Central Banks

• (01:51–03:20)
  • The peace agreement eases global pressure, especially helping central banks outside the U.S. (like the ECB), by providing relief amid inflation concerns.
  • Inflation is “sticky” in services (insurance, education, healthcare) but easing in goods.
  • Rieder on the broader implications:

    “It is a big deal for all markets… Central banks may not have to hike as much. What does it mean for… owning the equity market if rates aren’t going significantly higher? It’s a big deal.”
    (Rick Rieder, 02:21)

3. Inflation, Housing Pressure, and Fed’s Dilemma

• (03:20–05:34)
  • Inflation is uneven: health care, education, and insurance are seeing “sticky” price rises, but rates have little effect on these.
  • Sectors like used cars, small business, and low-income housing have little or no inflation and are struggling.
  • Fed’s dual mandate (employment and price stability) has become trickier.
  • The “overnight funds rate is not going to help modulate health care insurance.”
  • Rieder expects new tools (balance sheet, money supply) from Chair Warsh rather than further hikes, especially with a hawkish Fed committee.

4. Fed Communication: Forward Guidance and Market Impact

• (06:19–08:36)
  • The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is skeptical of heavy forward guidance and the dot plot.
  • Rieder supports reduced forward guidance, especially during easing:

    “If you’re easing policy, you actually don’t want people to be prepared for it… You want to create animal spirits, you want to create economic velocity… I think it’ll be refreshing and I think it’ll be helpful.”
    (Rick Rieder, 07:11)

  • Adds that increased market volatility can be beneficial if the Fed is clear about what data/metrics they're watching.

5. The Fed Balance Sheet and Long-Term Rates

• (08:36–10:16)
  • Warsh prefers shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, raising concerns about higher long-term rates if the market must absorb more bonds.
  • Rieder expects any reduction will be deliberate, noting today’s financing environment is more sophisticated with most U.S. debt in maturities of zero to two years.
  • “If you’re thoughtful about how you use the balance sheet… you can actually keep long rates tethered and less volatile… If you can keep longer and interest rates stable, we get the mortgage rate down in this country. You can get housing velocity moving.”
    (Rick Rieder, 09:13–09:54)

6. Consumer Sentiment: A Tale of Two Economies

• (10:16–12:04)
  • Despite strong stock market performance, consumer sentiment (per University of Michigan) is at its worst since COVID and the Great Financial Crisis.
  • Rieder offers a vivid metaphor:

    “I don’t really believe in the K-shaped economy. I called it the three-month-old birthday cake. The icing is doing okay. It’s underneath that’s not. And what’s underneath is much, much bigger. 75% of the economy, I think, is having a hard time.”
    (Rick Rieder, 10:49)

  • Pressure is most felt by low- and middle-income consumers, with top 10% driving aggregate spending. This divergence tempers Rieder’s rate outlook.

7. Bond and Equity Market Issuance: Opportunities and Caution

• (12:09–13:53)
  • With major corporate bond offerings (e.g., Nvidia $20bn) and both debt and equity markets active, Rieder says it’s the “most exciting time” he’s seen for investing.
  • He finds conventional investment-grade paper “just okay,” and is more drawn to structured finance, converts, and unique credit opportunities further down the cap stack for better yields.

8. Lightning Round: TLT and Bitcoin

• (13:53–15:06)
  1. TLT (long-term Treasury ETF)
     • Q: Buy or sell?
     • Rieder: Doesn’t expect long rates to move much; bets on selling volatility against TLT rather than directional call.
  2. Bitcoin (IBIT ETF)
     • Q: Buy now after a 50% sell-off?
     • Rieder: Bullish long-term, sees technical volatility, keeps moderate exposure for now:

       “I think it’s ultimately going considerably higher… Ultimately I think it’s going higher.”
       (Rick Rieder, 14:36)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “There is so much cash that’s sitting on the sidelines… and it’s pretty explosive when you see it happen.” (00:59, Rick Rieder)
• On inflation: “You’re not really going to bring down health care costs by moving the funds rate… It’s much more complex.” (03:54, Rick Rieder)
• “If you’re easing policy, you actually don’t want people to be prepared for it… create animal spirits, create economic velocity.” (07:11, Rick Rieder)
• On the U.S. economy: “I called it the three-month-old birthday cake. The icing is doing okay. It’s underneath that’s not.” (10:49, Rick Rieder)
• “It’s the most exciting time I’ve ever been around investing.” (12:50, Rick Rieder)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Market Reaction to Peace Agreement & Cash on Sidelines | 00:26–01:51 | | Central Banks & Inflation Dynamics | 01:51–03:20 | | Fed’s Dilemma: Housing & Inflation | 03:20–05:34 | | Communication Shift at the Fed | 06:19–08:36 | | Balance Sheet Reduction & Long-Term Rates | 08:36–10:16 | | Consumer Sentiment Disparities | 10:16–12:04 | | Corporate Bond & Equity Issuance | 12:09–13:53 | | TLT Direction & Volatility, Bitcoin Outlook | 13:53–15:06 |

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Tone and Style

Rick Rieder provides candid, nuanced macro analysis with a pragmatic, sometimes metaphorical style (“three-month-old birthday cake”), balancing both market optimism and concerns about the broader economy’s underlying health.

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Useful for…

• Market participants interested in macroeconomic currents, central bank policy shifts, and fixed income opportunities.
• General listeners seeking clear, jargon-free explanations of current economic puzzles.
• Investors looking for professional insights on portfolio positioning amid uncertainty.

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Transcript

[Indiana University Announcer]

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[Bloomberg Host]

Bloomberg Audio

[Rick Reeder]

Studios Podcasts Radio News so we have

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

a lot of ETF related things to get into. Bink, of course, just had a big birthday. But given the S size of the moves that we're seeing in the market right now, let's start broad. The S&P 500 higher by nearly 2%. The NASDAQ 100 higher by more than 3%. On the heels of that peace agreement announcement, then you take a look at the bond market. Still a big move. You did see yields drop across the curve. Coming back a little bit though, when you put it all together, you take a look at the different asset classes and you add oil in there. I mean, what's your initial read on this knee jerk?

[Rick Reeder]

So I'd say obviously the, the peace agreement and as you said, we'll see how dur it is. My senses are moving in a direction that ultimately will be quite positive. So the thing that's amazing to me, and by the way, it played out around the Space X transaction, there is so much cash that's sitting on the sidelines. So we get to be a number, depending on how you measure 8 or 9 trillion in money market funds, 19 trillion in deposits, and you know what happened. You know, you go back a week ago and you think about this big Space X deal. People have to find room though, in terms of portfolios, etc. So you create a little bit of that. And then once, once has happened, all of a sudden it unlocks this cash. Particularly when you get a good piece of news and people say, gosh, I can get into the pool. And it's pretty explosive when you see it happen, obviously the move, you know, after you've had a good run. The equity market has been pretty impressive today.

[Bloomberg Host]

Thank you for, for explaining that. Because sometimes it's, you know, when you ask a Macro guy what's going on in the equity market and the bond market, you don't often get a candid response. I appreciate that. I'm curious when we link what's happened with the interim peace deal with the spate of central bank meetings this week. I believe there's more than 20 central bank decisions this week. Was this a gift to central bankers? Maybe not in the US where we already know that the Fed's not going to do anything one way or another, but for other central banks this is some kind of relief for them.

[Rick Reeder]

100%. I mean you think about obviously headline inflation. The stress is real around what those numbers end up being. I mean we look at the core, you know I would argue there is some transmission coming in but it was interesting to see the CPI report last week. We look at core goods, core goods three month moving average core goods inflation is 0.1% and six month moving average 0.4. You're not seeing in goods where you're seeing this latent inflation is quite frankly in services, things like I mean insurance, a number in CPI, you look at that number, education, etc. So it's definitely helpful. It definitely takes, you know places like the ECB that are looking at multiple hikes and you say gosh now maybe they don't have to move in multiple forms. So it is a big deal. I mean it is a big deal for all markets. When you think about central banks may not have to hike as much and then you think about, you know, what does it mean for overall when you think about your NPV owning the equity market if rates aren't going to move significantly higher? It's yeah, it's a big, it's a big deal.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

So the last time you were on the show you had a clip that I put out on social media because I really opened my eyes to this. I said why would the Fed cut? And you said well the reason is housing. That's why the Fed should cut. And then they had a contest for who's going to be the Fed chair. Yeah, Kevin Wash is the Fed chair there now in between a rock and a hard place here because you do have some of these inflation numbers going up but you do have this housing pressure which you brought up. And since you're back and all that's happened since I want to get your take on what you would do.

[Rick Reeder]

I mean what I would do. Well I'm positioned for what they will do and I've learned in my career whatever I would do is interesting my friends but what I weigh a position is what they're going to do. Listen, I think if you take that and go back to this inflation report and you look at you break it down, the less interest sensitive sectors are experiencing health care, education, insurance, sticky inflation. You're not really going to bring down health care costs by moving the funds rate. If you look at what what happened that CPI report, used cars, automobiles, small business, low income housing, those sectors are actually A not experiencing much inflation if any at all and B they're in a tough spot. So it's much more complex when you think about, particularly if you have a dual mandate and you think about my mandate is actually employment and, and price stability and today it's very hard to use the interest rate tool to manage automobile insurance. And so I think, and quite frankly I think the new chair will use some other tools and I think a look at the money supply. I'm certain he will, I'm certain he will look at the balance sheet. This idea that the overnight funds rate is going to help modulate health care insurance doesn't make a lot of sense but so I think you'll see a much more like how do we use balance sheet, how we use money supply and a much more and by the way the front end of the yield curve, nobody really finances off the front end. It's all out the curve. How the chair manages long end interest rates particularly you think about what does it mean for mortgages, what does it mean for other things. So listen, I wouldn't hike and, but you know, we'll see you have a committee that's, that's clearly hawkish.

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[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Let's keep the conversation going with Rick Reeder though. He's still with us. He's still on set. Rick, appreciate your patience. Before we took a little bit of sound from the present, there we were talk talking about this upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and you know, how, how the news, how what we're seeing unfold in the Middle east when it comes to this MoU sort of factors into the trajectory for the Fed going forward. But beyond the rate conversation, I do want to talk a little bit about the communication coming from the Fed and how it might change going forward because Kevin Warsh, I mean he's made it clear he has not a lot of love for forward guidance. The dot plot, you know, all the press conferences that the Fed has sort of tuned the market into and I wonder, you know, whether or not you think the Bond market, whether traders in general are prepared for a Federal Reserve that maybe communicates a little bit less.

[Rick Reeder]

You know, I mean, I'll say one thing to my, I'm a believer and you don't need as much forward guidance. In fact, part of when you say is the bond market prepared for it? If you're easing policy, you actually don't want people to be prepared for it. You want to actually, I mean one of the beauties of what the Fed has is its voice. Price when you're easing is very different than you're tightening. When you're tightening, you want to be foreshadowing, you want to be predictable in terms of how you're going to and wean people off of easier policy when you're easing. You don't want that. You want to create animal spirits, you want to create economic velocity. And so I actually think not having forward guidance or having less forward guidance, actually a real tool that you can utilize going forward. Listen, I don't find the dot plot terrible, of terrible utility. I mean for markets like to hone in on where it is to price the forwards. But listen, it's 19 votes. You don't know who's who, you don't know. You know, there are some more important ones than others. There's a, there is a disparate process of how people fill out their dots among the 19. So I actually think it'll be a good idea. And you know, quite frankly one of the four markets, getting some volatility into the markets is a, is a good thing. And you know, I think, I think people, as long as you lay out, here are the metrics that we're looking at, here are the parameters that the Fed's going to operate within. And as long as you're clear and articulate as this is what we are focused on and then let the markets interpret it as the data presents itself. So anyway, I think it'll be, I think it'll be refreshing and I think it'll be, I think it'll be helpful

[Bloomberg Host]

and I think that's what a lot of people are counting on this meeting or this press conference this Wednesday to do for Kevin Wash to kind of lay out his vision. One thing that we have heard from him in the past is that he is not a fan of the Fed's balance sheet, the size that it is right now. He wants to reduce that. Talk through what the implications of that because there's some concern that it could push up long term rates by forcing the market to absorb more bonds.

[Rick Reeder]

So I mean that, I mean it's going to be a big deal. I mean I think one of the things, listen, I think he'll be very deliberate in reducing the balance sheet. I think one of the things, the way financing works today is very different. In the past you think about the, the banks used to borrow short, lend long and today it's very much financing is tranche the way we finance commercial real estate or residential real estate or buy or credit. So it is very much what is important is liquidity in the system. Meaning if you reduce the balance sheet too quickly it can be very disruptive. I am certain he's not going to go down that path. The other thing that is really important is the shape of the yield curve and I think how you utilize the balance sheet and by the way you can reduce the size of it because so much of our debt, 89% of the debt in the United States rates is in zero to two years. It's actually not that much net of what's on the Fed's balance sheet today. There's actually not much exposure duration, interest rate exposure out the yield curve. If you were thoughtful about how you use the balance sheet, my sense is they will be you can actually keep long rates tethered and less volatile. That's where you don't want to see the volatility is. If you can keep longer and interest rates stable, we get the mortgage rate down in this country. You can get housing velocity moving. That is going to be something really important. And I think the balance sheet is a big part of how you do that.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

When I ask you about consumer sentiment, so stock market doing great, up 13% since April. When you start to see these sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan come in as the worst since COVID and the great financial crisis I it's tough for me to believe this. What do you make of that disparity? Because if this data were accurate and people were just going to stop spending, you'd think the market would pick up on it and not go bananas. So where's the disconnect there? What's going on?

[Rick Reeder]

So you know, I think I said Matt Miller show the other day, I don't really believe in the K shaped economy. I actually think it's, I think I called it the three month old birthday cake. Like the icing is, is doing is still okay. It's underneath it's not. And what's underneath is much, much bigger. 75% of the economy I think is having a hard time. And so if you take part of what we talked about, low income young people, you know, the housing market, I think most people are having a hard time when, particularly when you get higher fuel prices, higher food prices, it does pressure consumer sentiment. And you, by the way, you see this in the earnings reports. I mean, it's incredibly dichotomous in terms of where high end is doing, whether it's hotels, retailers, restaurants and then where. And by the way, I wouldn't just say it's low end, I say it's low to middle, even a bit higher than that. So I think you have that dynamic in the economy. The one, the one thing I will say that's a travesty is actually most of what driving consumption in aggregate today is actually the top 10%. So even though the consumer sentiment amongst the broad populace is not in great shape, the sheer aggregate spend there is not that large. So you can actually have an economy, when you look at it tips of the waves and say, gosh, the economy is doing pretty well in aggregate. But where most are actually having a hard time is part of why I have a different view on where I don't think rates have to go higher.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

So don't eat the cake is what I'm saying here and here. It would not taste that.

[Rick Reeder]

No, exactly.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

It's amazing. Maybe what's underneath doesn't look so good. I do want to get your thoughts on credit though, because there was a really interesting headline this morning coming from in video with plans for a bond sale targeting $20 billion that would be Nvidia's first bond sale since 2021. And you sort of combine that idea with the fact that you're seeing the hyperscalers come out, hit the bond market in a big way. You also have big equity issuance going on as well, especially not just in IPOs. You also have the likes of Alphabet raising equity as well. How are you thinking about that dynamic that when you look across bonds, you look across equities, you're seeing these big raises. How are you thinking about in the context of portfolios such as bank.

[Rick Reeder]

It's a great question. I mean, so first of all, you know, I've been doing this, I'm not saying many decades now I've been doing it, but it's the most exciting time I've ever been around investing. Because you're seeing debt issuance, equity issuance, converts loans with warrants, all sorts of funding. Because the truth is they have to come in every market, by the way, coming us, coming in Europe, coming anywhere that they'll take it there's a lot of financing coming. How do we think about it? Listen, I think some of it is, you know, some of the high quality paper that comes investment grade market is just okay. And by the way, there's more to come as you said, including today. I think some more of the interesting converts, some of the, some of the structured financing that's coming where you can really add some yield maybe for a bit further down the capsack, maybe some of these new companies that are coming. That's where I find it more interesting. Listen, I mean they're, you know, because the size is so big, there's some tactical opportunities to go in and then maybe reduce your exposure. But I think like I say, doing some things that are a bit off the beaten path where you get some more yield is. Has been great for the portfolios.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Okay, I have two quick lightning round questions. Okay.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

And we have one minute.

[The Hartford Announcer]

Okay.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

TLT it lures so many sailors to shipwreck. It's been going like this for about a year.

[Rick Reeder]

Yeah.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

Buy it or sell it?

[Rick Reeder]

I don't think, I don't think long rates are going very far. So that's a terrible, boring answer. But I think it's right. By the way. I think the best expression is sell volume volatility against it. And that's been a. That's been. Volatility has been high and that's been the best trade to sell. So volume against it.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

One of your mutual funds I believe still owns a little bit of IBIT Bitcoin and you're one of the early people inside Blackrock to get into it.

[Rick Reeder]

Yeah.

[Bloomberg Co-Host]

It's now sold off 50%. Yeah. Is it a buy now or are you going to wait more?

[Rick Reeder]

Well, these are specific questions. So listen, I think it's ultimately going considerably higher. I think the technicals, there's some technical condition around it that causes it to chop around. I think it's ultimately going higher. We're keeping it a pretty moderate exposure quite frankly because I think there's some other things that we are already we talked about in technology and some of the growth engines. By the way, there are places to get yield and things like supports the credit markets M that I felt like it's just okay today and so we've reduced exposure. Ultimately I think it's going higher.

[Bloomberg Host]

All right, Rick Reeder, thank you so much for joining us today.

[Rick Reeder]

Thanks for having me.

[Bloomberg Host]

Appreciate CEO of global fixed income at BlackRock and also head of the Black BlackRock global allocation team.

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