BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair

Summary

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Podcast Summary

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks
Episode: BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair
Date: January 9, 2026
Guest: Rick Rieder — Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock
Host(s): Bloomberg team

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Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income, following the release of the latest US jobs report. The discussion centers on the nuanced signals in the labor data, the realities of a productivity revolution underway, the limits of monetary policy, housing’s centrality in economic stability, and broader market investment strategies. Rieder also offers candid perspectives on interest rate policy, labor market shifts driven by technology, and even briefly addresses speculation about his potential Fed Chair candidacy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Labor Market & Productivity Revolution

[00:38–05:19]

• Mixed Job Data:

  • Rieder highlights almost flat job growth when health care jobs are excluded.

    “If you take out health care jobs, we're actually running negative jobs for the last six months... a productivity revolution of extraordinary proportion that we have an economy that's growing at a quite robust rate. But we just don't need the people.” — Rick Rieder [01:05]

• Long-Term Trend:

  • He contrasts today’s numbers with post-Covid job surges, underscoring the slowdown in job creation outside non-cyclical sectors.

• AI & Automation Skepticism:

  • While productivity is indeed rising, Rieder stresses it isn’t just AI—logistics, automation, and better management are also at play.

    “People like to...almost [make productivity] a two letter word, AI. AI is coming...so is robotics, so is automation... What's really happening is earnings growth is spectacular because you're reducing your cost infrastructure... So I think AI is coming and I think it accelerates what is a productivity boom.” — Rick Rieder [03:23]

• Labor Market Disparities:

  • The labor market’s challenges disproportionately affect lower-skilled, lower-income, and urban workers.

    “It's a lower skilled problem, it's an urban problem... small business that are on the backside of what is a tough dynamic today.” — Rick Rieder [04:22]

2. Interest Rates: How Low Should They Go?

[05:19–08:43]

• Unemployment Rate Assessment:

  • At 4.4%, unemployment isn’t a crisis but the trend “isn’t a good story.”
  • Rieder reiterates that the interest rate tool does little to affect sectors like health care and education.

• Equilibrium Rate:

  • He has argued for months that the Fed funds rate should fall to 3%, believing this better suits the current environment.

    “I just think you've got to get the funds rate down a bit to 3%... that's the equilibrium rate today.” — Rick Rieder [06:32]

• Limits of Monetary Policy:

  • Lowering rates won’t reverse long-term productivity or demographic trends. Fiscal policies are needed to address structural issues.

3. The Central Role of Housing

[08:43–10:42]

• Housing as Economic Driver:

  • Housing wealth is critical for American families’ net worth, fertility, mobility, and even marriage rates.
  • Lower mortgage rates—even small moves—could meaningfully boost home sales, labor mobility, and new job creation.

    “Every house built in this country creates 3.1 jobs... If you get the mortgage rate to five and a half to six, you create more velocity in terms of housing moving...” — Rick Rieder [09:24]

• Policy Initiatives:

  • Discusses the importance of both fiscal and longer-term interest rate stabilization, rather than just focusing on the fed funds rate.

4. Fertility, Student Debt & Youth Challenges

[10:42–12:22]

• Demographics:

  • Brief, lighter segment noting the nation’s fertility concerns—with Rieder revealing he’s becoming a grandfather.
  • Student debt and youth unemployment create headwinds for young people starting families.

• Economic Policy & Growth:

  “Nominal GDP has to be high because we have a debt burden... If we keep nominal GDP high we keep employing more people. You bring that nominal GDP number up which diffuses the debt burden.” — Rick Rieder [11:58]

5. Markets & Investment Strategy

[12:22–16:48]

• Bank ETF Growth:

  • Rieder comments on the rapid growth of BlackRock’s actively managed ETF, underlining the importance of yield and portfolio quality over the absolute level of rates.

• Yield Generation:

  “These yields are phenomenal... we can create six, six and a quarter, six and a half percent yield by being and staying high quality...” — Rick Rieder [13:08]

• Positioning for Rate Cuts:

  • Advocates increased allocation to emerging markets, mortgages, and global bonds—especially Europe for dollar-based investors.

• Scale & Liquidity:

  • Scale brings new possibilities (e.g., mortgages’ liquidity), but some markets (like CLOs) require careful sizing.

• Risk Hedging:

  • BlackRock has been buying equity volatility as protection, since “volatility is cheap in the equity market [but] high in the rates market.” [15:49]
  • Preference for “front to belly” of the yield curve versus long-end exposure.

6. Federal Reserve: Is the Policy Too Tight?

[16:48–18:39]

• Fed Critique:

  • Rieder supports others’ views that policy is overly restrictive by as much as 150 bps, especially given that most inflation drivers are non-cyclical and unaffected by high rates.

  “Most of what is in inflation today is non cyclical in services... you can actually drop rates, you bring shelter down, you build shelter, inflation down. But things like health care, education, insurance, trash... are not interest rate sensitive.” — Rick Rieder [17:10]

• Preferred Policy Stance:

  • Keep the Fed funds rate at 3%; potentially lower only if GDP growth slows further or government fiscal tailwinds fade.

7. Speculation on Federal Career

[18:39–19:23]

• Potential for Fed Chair:
  • Asked directly about his candidacy (as per news reports), Rieder offers a non-committal and personal response:

    “I am focused on my family situation... This is the busiest time I quite frankly I've ever seen... I've never been more busy so that's what I'm doing.” — Rick Rieder [18:57]

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Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On the state of the labor market and productivity:

  “We have a productivity revolution of extraordinary proportion... But we just don't need the people.” — Rick Rieder [01:05]

• On what’s truly driving productivity gains:

  “AI is coming...But if you go back the last two years...earnings growth is spectacular because you're reducing your cost infrastructure... using software, cloud, inventory management tools, etc.” — Rick Rieder [03:23]

• On housing’s crucial, underestimated role:

  “Three quarters of the wealth in this country by people is in their home...the way young people build wealth is through their home.” — Rick Rieder [09:24]

• On rate policy and market strategy:

  “I just think you got to get the funds rate down a bit to 3%... that's the equilibrium rate today.” — Rick Rieder [06:32]

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Key Timestamps

• [00:38–01:05] — Initial reaction to jobs report and labor market trends
• [02:46–05:19] — Discussion of productivity, AI, and labor market composition
• [05:19–07:18] — Unemployment, immigration, need for anticipatory monetary policy
• [07:18–08:43] — Limits of Fed action; importance of fiscal policy and housing
• [08:43–10:42] — Housing’s impact on wealth, fertility, and economic stability
• [10:42–12:22] — Fertility, student debt, and youth labor market challenges
• [12:22–14:23] — Investment strategy for 2026; yield, ETF growth, and market positioning
• [14:23–15:34] — ETF scaling and liquidity management
• [15:34–16:48] — Hedging, yield curve strategy, and volatility market
• [16:48–18:39] — Monetary policy critique, inflation drivers, equilibrium rates
• [18:39–19:23] — Potential Fed Chair candidacy (deflection & personal priorities)

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Conclusion

Rick Rieder paints a nuanced picture of an economy fundamentally transformed by technology-driven productivity, contending with demographic headwinds and the limitations of monetary policy. His message: Structural issues require fiscal solutions, housing is pivotal to both economic growth and social renewal, and rate policy must carefully adapt to a new equilibrium. While he demurs on speculation about further public service, Rieder’s insights offer actionable guidance for fixed-income investors and policymakers alike.

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Transcript

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[Podcast Host]

The latest jobs numbers which came out just under an hour ago, some mixed messaging coming from it, where do you concentrate on? Let's bring in BlackRock's chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income, Rick Reeder. And Rick, great to see you this morning. Thanks for joining us. I'm sure you've been poring over the numbers. What is the concentration? Is it growth that comes in less than expected? Is it the revisions for October, November or is an unemployment rate now just at 4.4%?

[Rick Reeder]

So I think what Mike McKee said was right in that, you know, the Fed talked about the unemployment rate. I have to tell you I have a different take on it. I think there is a we're talking about 50,000 jobs and then a revision down over 70,000 jobs. If you take we're growing now. If you go the last six month moving average, if you take out health care jobs, we're actually running negative jobs for the last six months away from health care which is non cyclical now interest rate sensitive. Actually if you go back 8 months, the total net jobs is negative 213,000 jobs net of health care. What I think is is going on is we have a productivity revolution of extraordinary proportion that we have an economy that's growing at a quite robust rate. But we just don't need the people. And I know, I know when people say well you know they're focused on could this be 60,000 jobs, 70,000 jobs, 80,000 jobs. If you go back to 2021 that was post Covid. We're running 600,000 jobs now. Big pullback from 20. But then in 22, 380,000 jobs a month, 2022 you're running 217,000 jobs. 23, 23 you were running, sorry, 24 you're running 170,000 jobs. We're talking about last year you ran 50,000 jobs net of health care, no jobs. This year you're running at a number what we just saw 50,000, 39,000 in health care. Point being, and part of why, you know, I think the interest rate tool doesn't really affect health care and doesn't really affect education, which was another part of the job market. Meaning, I think we're just seeing a productivity revolution. I mean you break down the numbers, you really look at it, it's pretty extraordinary. And I think the labor dynamic is quite, quite significant. On the backside of that, where do.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

You see that, Rick? Because I was just listening to Odd Lots, the Odd Lots podcast that Joe and Tracy do with Jan Hatzius from Goldman Sachs. He says that I has added about 20 basis points of productivity to growth. And their new chief, incoming chief equity strategist Ben Snyder said out of all 500s and P companies, only six have been able to quantify added productivity from AI. So I hear about it all the time and I see the stock soaring. But yeah, what's the evidence that we have actually increased productivity with these tools?

[Rick Reeder]

So by the way, Yan's right. As normal, the, as usual, the. I will say one thing people like to take, take productivity and say almost be a two letter word, AI. AI is coming by the way. So is robotics, so is automation. So with other forms of productivity. But if you go back the last two years and I broke it down on a call, we did logistics, inventory management, customer procurement, freight, freight, how you use freight, efficiency of how you manage your inventory, efficiency of how you manage your receivables. Every company today is running. Why is revenue growth a decent place? But what's really happening is earnings growth is spectacular. Earnings growth is spectacular because you're reducing your cost infrastructure, cost of goods sold, SG&A are coming down because you've come up with a better way to actually run your business. And you're using software, cloud, inventory management tools, etc. So I think AI is coming and I think it accelerates what is a productivity boom. But I agree with you, I agree with what John said today. It's not I. And by the way, you know, you look at the M and A calendar and which I think will continue to be robust to say the least. Why will you see so much M and A? Some of it you have business incentives that are real, some of it is you have businesses trying to build a moat, create more data, etc. A lot of it is synergistic. That is I can grow my company, I can build scale and I can reduce my cost ecosystem. And you know what that means is it's fewer jobs. And I think we're watching it. And I don't think the story is ambiguous. I think the story is, is quite clear. We have a labor dynamic, right. That is tricky. And by the way, it's a lower skilled problem, it's an urban problem. It's a, that I think is, you know, part of why I think, you know, I've been pretty adamant that I think the funds rate needs to be, I think interest rates need to be a bit lower because I think it's lower skilled. I think it's low, low income. I think it's small business that are on the backside of what is a tough dynamic today.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

I want to get to that and I know Danny does too in terms of rates, but I want to get to what you think we need in terms of adding jobs because we have, you know, zero immigration and we're close to a population declining. We're not having kids in this country. So to me, 4.4% unemployment, you know, in that picture, especially with 3.8% wage.

[Rick Reeder]

Growth, that looks good. So, so by the way, it's a 4.4 trending significantly higher from where we, where we used to be. And by the way, I would argue if you took a step back and said, Gosh, 4.4 is at a crisis, unequivocal, that that's not a crisis. The trend isn't, isn't a good story, number one. Number number two, we have a dynamic and you know, I think people say it's a supply, that it's an immigration dynamic. If you look at the demand function and so you look at the jolts, data openings and you look at the trend there. And again, I'm not saying we're, we're in a jobs crisis today, but if you took a step back and said, gosh, I want to look at the big picture and I go back to where we were in terms of what jobs are created in 22, 23, 24, we could strip out the COVID dynamic. And then you say, where are we going? Where we're going as a place from a labor perspective that I think is, is a bit, is a bit concerning. And I think, you know what women's opinion, I think you have to be a bit anticipatory. We've been talking about this, you know, for nine months where, you know, the funds rate was a four and three eighths. And by the way, I don't, you know, I just think, I don't think we need to go that far. I think we've got to get the funds rate down a bit to 3%. We've been talking about that every month on this show. And I just think you got to get there because I think that's the equilibrium rate today.

[Adobe Acrobat Studio Announcer]

Rick.

[Podcast Host]

I just wonder though, even if you get there, how does that change these, these very macro trends you're talking about? I mean that doesn't change this push to productivity, that doesn't put a cap on AI and maybe its ability to replace workers. So if you lower rates, does it really have as big of an impact on the labor market this time around?

[Rick Reeder]

So the answer is you're right. And it's like does the Fed create jobs and the Fed have one tool to create and you know this argument the Fed has one tool. And by the way, it's not just the Fed. I actually think most of what you're describing needs to be accomplished through fiscal initiatives. And so by the way, you know obviously a lot of news recently about the housing market. Well, I think the housing market is such a profound dynamic and part of why I think that influence is so significant. And by the way, I actually don't think the fed funds rate is that critical. I think it's longer term interest rates you got to keep down because you get the mortgage rate down. What happens if we get housing moving? If you get housing moving, you create more labor mobility. You see a job in another state, another city, you can move. That's important. We create every, every house built in this country creates 3.1 jobs from people building houses. That creates and it's by the way it's hard to building a house today that creates and an improvement in employment. And then I think there's a whole series of other things around technology, etc. That I think most of it on the fiscal side. But I agree with you. I think that is the trend. So then you go back and say okay, so then what is the equilibrium rate of interest relative to that if inflation breakevens are 2.3% and inflation projections by you mesh are certainly well contained that I think my point being is yes, we have a productivity revolution. It's hard for the interest rate tool to solve it. But I think there's a whole series of things that can ameliorate some of what is a problem today and a bigger, bigger problem.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Rick Reeder here, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income. And this is so interesting. I mean President Trump not only has he this week said he doesn't want like Steve Schwarzman buying homes anymore or any institutional buyers of of homes at the same Time, I think President Xi of China reminds us that homes are for living, not investments. And, and you've got President Trump now doing Oval Office QE like telling his guys at Fannie and Freddie to buy $200 billion of mortgage backed securities. Does this help, Rick, you think that the housing crisis that you were talking about.

[Rick Reeder]

So I, I mean I don't want, I won't comment on a specific initiative. The only thing I will, I will say is this. And there I think we have, I think housing is pivotal. By the way, I normally think people underestimate how important 3/4 of the wealth in this country by people is in their home. And the way young people build wealth is through their home. The way the normal. By the way, I would even translate it, I would even relate it to, I've showed a chart on fertility rates, marriage levels, etc. I think housing, if you have what is today, what is a moribund housing market, I think the impact is significantly more intense than people think. So any of the initiatives I think to move it, I think fiscal, I think obviously moving the mortgage rate I think is helpful. And by the way, I don't think you have to move it that far. You know we see, we track prepayments, speeds on mortgages as you said, very, very closely. If you get the mortgage rate to five and a half to six, you've seen it by the way as the mortgage rate has come down, you create more velocity and in terms of housing moving, you see it in existing home sales picking up. So anyway, I think that's the case and I think if you get the mortgage rate down a bit and by the way, I only think you need to get 10 year treasuries down, 25, 30, 40 basis points and just keep them there, keep volume rate, volatility down. And then with fiscal, I think you do some pretty positive things and I agree that it's arguably one of the most important things we could do today.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Hey Rick, does anybody ever talk about getting the fertility rate up? Like why don't we put it, put some carrots out there to create more kids.

[Rick Reeder]

So the, I don't know, I don't know if you know this, I'm actually becoming a grandfather today. So that's.

[Podcast Host]

Congratulations Ray.

[Rick Reeder]

So I think by the way, Matt, I don't know if you know this but I had my anniversary once when I was on your show many years ago. So I think all my big events come when I'm, when I'm talking with y'.

[Adobe Acrobat Studio Announcer]

All.

[Rick Reeder]

So I, there's something Good there about being with y'. All. So anyway I good for us.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

But you're in trouble at home, I imagine.

[Rick Reeder]

Yeah, that is well close. I think there's a couple things that are play. I mean I do think it's right. I do think if you have young people look at the student lo 30% of student loans are in repayment today. That is unbelievable. That stat is unbelievable. Young people having a hard time. By the way, if you look at the youth unemployment rates now up I think it's eight and a half percent maybe a little bit higher than that young people graduating you saw was that you measure one of the surveys that showed people graduating college. It's the toughest time in literally a generation. So listen, I think there are some things I think a lot of this is related and I think a lot of this is you know if we create an issue I think the Dan's question before that that was dead right. There is something that you know that are just hard to fight against. But I think there's a series of things that I think that that can be done that will improve a bunch of things. And by the way the thing that is critical, nominal GDP has to be high because we have a debt burden in this country that is large. And if we keep nominal GDP high we keep employing more people. You bring that nominal GDP number up which diffuses the debt burden.

[Podcast Host]

Rick, if we could talk about your other child which I realize is less important than your grandchild but still important for these markets is bank. Matt has pointed this out. The fastest growing active etf. You're talking about some size changes in history.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

In history which is huge. There's still more ETFs than stocks and.

[Podcast Host]

A lot of active ETFs too. So that is a big deal. And you're I'm assuming you're going to have to position this for big changes, lower rates, maybe changes with NBC which or mortgage backed securities which I know is part of this maybe a tariff ruling which could also change what this bond market does. And this brings me to a viewer question that someone wrote in. What is the best part part of the curve that is the best place to invest for total return in 2026. How are you thinking incorporating that idea into bank in 2026?

[Rick Reeder]

Rick, by the way, it's always funny the chart that goes up that shows the price of bank it doesn't show the dividend yield where you know my job is to create as much dividend yield and as much as much income as possible. Listen, I think you know there is something by the way there's always an interesting thing about like people say like why is he saying that the funds rate should come down? He must have an ulterior motive. I actually don't want the funds right. In fact I don't want interest rates to come because commercially these yields are phenomenal. I mean these yields to create income in a portfolio and we can create six, six and a quarter, six and a half percent yield by being and staying high quality and saying you know, I think, I think bank is running a low single A rating which is pretty amazing with, with a less than four year duration anyway if we can just keep that yield up, you know what. So what do you do to do that? You reduce a little bit. We've reduced a little bit of high yield. We've increased a bit of emerging markets. We think the dollar, the dollar is cont have talked about on the show. We like mortgages. Quite a move today. I don't know, I don't know at these levels but, but you know increase your quality and you can still run yield that is, that is pretty significant in the portfolio and be global like look at interest rates around the world, particularly Europe where you can as a dollar investor is quite attractive.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Is it by the way as you grow this quickly. We're just looking at the Eric Balchunas tweet there and I have to think he's the foremost ETF analyst, most respected ETF analyst in the world. Is it more difficult as it grows to manage or is it just such a huge space that you can't get that. That big?

[Rick Reeder]

Yeah, I mean so by the way it does you think about in size it's, I mean it's a fantastic question. This is a couple of things. First of all, part of why mortgages become more interesting is because. Because they're so liquid and the size of that market is, is, is so expansive. You do think about other things though as you get can do in your portfolio where we can, you know we do a little bit more bespoke. You know we tend to keep this very liquid but we can do a little bit more bespoke because of the size of it. So that gives us, gives us a little bit more flexibility. But there are some markets that are, that are clear like the Cielo market or others that you think about, you know how big do you want to be in certain markets? So you do. It does evolve a little bit at scale. I think there's a lot of things that make it, make it easier to do It I'd say on balance it's a little bit easier at scale but, but you do, you do evolve it a bit in terms of how you're managing it for sure.

[Podcast Host]

Rick, how are you thinking about positioning heading into what might be a decision today on IPA from the Supreme Court? If we don't have as much revenue coming in and if it is ruled illegal, what kind of changes could you see to this curve?

[Rick Reeder]

Yeah, it's a, it's a great question. And so, so first of all, a couple of things. You know, this has been out there for a while. Whether it's today or when it comes out. You know, I will say, I'll say one thing. I mean we buy, you know including recently, we buy a lot of volatility in the equity market because quite frankly volatility is cheap in the equity market, whereas I think it's high in the rates market. But we buy a lot of volatility. We have been recently as volatility has come down as you have talked about, but stocks go up, volatility comes down. So we have built a decent amount of protection in as people interpret it. You know I've talked about on your show before, I tend to like the front to the belly of the yield curve, particularly after a number like this and they cheapen it up a little bit. You know, the long end of the yield curve, not that interesting because of the volatility it gives you so, so a few things around the edges around gosh, can you keep, can you hold a bit more front to belly of the yield curve? Can you buy a bit more volatility, protect some downside. And you were talking about in fixed income maybe you go a little bit higher quality for the time being and wait for things to play through.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

I, you know we had Stephen Myron on, he was on surveillance yesterday and he thinks that the Fed is still 150 basis points too restrictive about what are you watching in the data that could prove that out or what do you need to see in the next prints to show that the Fed is really behind the curve here?

[Rick Reeder]

I mean I'm pretty resolute my opinion, I've been for many, many months that I think, I think 3% is a, is a no brainer in my mind in that that is an equilibrium rate. If you know, you know inflation break evens don't trade a lot. I'm not sure they're a great benchmark but they're 2.3 still above inflation break evens. If you say, you know, given what the labor market is telling you today given that inflation, most of what is in inflation today is non cyclical in services we talked about shelter and you can actually drop rates, you bring shelter down, you build shelter, inflation down. But things like health care, education, insurance, trash and etc. Like these things are not interest rate sensitive. So I don't think inflation is. We're going to hurt inflation by getting that funds rate to any, any lower because of so much of it is non cyclical and inflation. So I think three is a, is an equal, is certainly a place you can rest. You know, whether we have to go lower against the Dan's question about like what is over, you know, if you have an economy that's not running 5% nominal and we start slowing because the fiscal tailwind becomes a headwind, you know, does that, does the neutral rate have to be closer to two? You know I think time will tell but I don't think we have to go that much lower today. But I know if it was me I would get the TO three. I would be focused on longer on the yield curve because that's where real velocity in the system works. That's where we finance mortgages, credit, virtually everything in the system finances out the curve in the fives to tens roughly.

[Podcast Host]

Rick, if I may, you know, and I've got to ask because a lot of people listen to you, really appreciate your opinion and want to know if it will be you, if it will be you part of making that decision. The Treasury Secretary yesterday said that you were one of the sole candidates who haven't yet had your interview. Might you be headed down to Washington D.C. anytime soon?

[Rick Reeder]

Yeah. No. You anticipated my answer. I, you know, I'm. Well, I am focused on my family situation as we talked about in terms of. And then you know, be, you know, this is the busiest time I quite frankly I've ever seen in terms of what we're doing. You know, we've got a lot of year end stuff we do, markets, funds were evolving, etc. So I don't know. I mean I know it's a bad answer but that's, that's where I'm, I've never been more busy so that's, that's what I'm doing.

[Podcast Host]

Well Rick, I think I can speak for the entirety of the open interest family and wish you a congratulations to you.

[Rick Reeder]

Thanks.

[Co-host/Interviewer]

Yes, congratulations Rick.

[Podcast Host]

Thank you so much for joining us today. It's BlackRock's Rick Reeder.

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