Podcast Summary

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks
Episode: BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Jobs Report, Fed Chair
Date: January 9, 2026
Guest: Rick Rieder — Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock
Host(s): Bloomberg team

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth interview with Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income, following the release of the latest US jobs report. The discussion centers on the nuanced signals in the labor data, the realities of a productivity revolution underway, the limits of monetary policy, housing’s centrality in economic stability, and broader market investment strategies. Rieder also offers candid perspectives on interest rate policy, labor market shifts driven by technology, and even briefly addresses speculation about his potential Fed Chair candidacy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Labor Market & Productivity Revolution

[00:38–05:19]

• Mixed Job Data:

  • Rieder highlights almost flat job growth when health care jobs are excluded.

    “If you take out health care jobs, we're actually running negative jobs for the last six months... a productivity revolution of extraordinary proportion that we have an economy that's growing at a quite robust rate. But we just don't need the people.” — Rick Rieder [01:05]

• Long-Term Trend:

  • He contrasts today’s numbers with post-Covid job surges, underscoring the slowdown in job creation outside non-cyclical sectors.

• AI & Automation Skepticism:

  • While productivity is indeed rising, Rieder stresses it isn’t just AI—logistics, automation, and better management are also at play.

    “People like to...almost [make productivity] a two letter word, AI. AI is coming...so is robotics, so is automation... What's really happening is earnings growth is spectacular because you're reducing your cost infrastructure... So I think AI is coming and I think it accelerates what is a productivity boom.” — Rick Rieder [03:23]

• Labor Market Disparities:

  • The labor market’s challenges disproportionately affect lower-skilled, lower-income, and urban workers.

    “It's a lower skilled problem, it's an urban problem... small business that are on the backside of what is a tough dynamic today.” — Rick Rieder [04:22]

2. Interest Rates: How Low Should They Go?

[05:19–08:43]

• Unemployment Rate Assessment:

  • At 4.4%, unemployment isn’t a crisis but the trend “isn’t a good story.”
  • Rieder reiterates that the interest rate tool does little to affect sectors like health care and education.

• Equilibrium Rate:

  • He has argued for months that the Fed funds rate should fall to 3%, believing this better suits the current environment.

    “I just think you've got to get the funds rate down a bit to 3%... that's the equilibrium rate today.” — Rick Rieder [06:32]

• Limits of Monetary Policy:

  • Lowering rates won’t reverse long-term productivity or demographic trends. Fiscal policies are needed to address structural issues.

3. The Central Role of Housing

[08:43–10:42]

• Housing as Economic Driver:

  • Housing wealth is critical for American families’ net worth, fertility, mobility, and even marriage rates.
  • Lower mortgage rates—even small moves—could meaningfully boost home sales, labor mobility, and new job creation.

    “Every house built in this country creates 3.1 jobs... If you get the mortgage rate to five and a half to six, you create more velocity in terms of housing moving...” — Rick Rieder [09:24]

• Policy Initiatives:

  • Discusses the importance of both fiscal and longer-term interest rate stabilization, rather than just focusing on the fed funds rate.

4. Fertility, Student Debt & Youth Challenges

[10:42–12:22]

• Demographics:

  • Brief, lighter segment noting the nation’s fertility concerns—with Rieder revealing he’s becoming a grandfather.
  • Student debt and youth unemployment create headwinds for young people starting families.

• Economic Policy & Growth:

  “Nominal GDP has to be high because we have a debt burden... If we keep nominal GDP high we keep employing more people. You bring that nominal GDP number up which diffuses the debt burden.” — Rick Rieder [11:58]

5. Markets & Investment Strategy

[12:22–16:48]

• Bank ETF Growth:

  • Rieder comments on the rapid growth of BlackRock’s actively managed ETF, underlining the importance of yield and portfolio quality over the absolute level of rates.

• Yield Generation:

  “These yields are phenomenal... we can create six, six and a quarter, six and a half percent yield by being and staying high quality...” — Rick Rieder [13:08]

• Positioning for Rate Cuts:

  • Advocates increased allocation to emerging markets, mortgages, and global bonds—especially Europe for dollar-based investors.

• Scale & Liquidity:

  • Scale brings new possibilities (e.g., mortgages’ liquidity), but some markets (like CLOs) require careful sizing.

• Risk Hedging:

  • BlackRock has been buying equity volatility as protection, since “volatility is cheap in the equity market [but] high in the rates market.” [15:49]
  • Preference for “front to belly” of the yield curve versus long-end exposure.

6. Federal Reserve: Is the Policy Too Tight?

[16:48–18:39]

• Fed Critique:

  • Rieder supports others’ views that policy is overly restrictive by as much as 150 bps, especially given that most inflation drivers are non-cyclical and unaffected by high rates.

  “Most of what is in inflation today is non cyclical in services... you can actually drop rates, you bring shelter down, you build shelter, inflation down. But things like health care, education, insurance, trash... are not interest rate sensitive.” — Rick Rieder [17:10]

• Preferred Policy Stance:

  • Keep the Fed funds rate at 3%; potentially lower only if GDP growth slows further or government fiscal tailwinds fade.

7. Speculation on Federal Career

[18:39–19:23]

• Potential for Fed Chair:
  • Asked directly about his candidacy (as per news reports), Rieder offers a non-committal and personal response:

    “I am focused on my family situation... This is the busiest time I quite frankly I've ever seen... I've never been more busy so that's what I'm doing.” — Rick Rieder [18:57]

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On the state of the labor market and productivity:

  “We have a productivity revolution of extraordinary proportion... But we just don't need the people.” — Rick Rieder [01:05]

• On what’s truly driving productivity gains:

  “AI is coming...But if you go back the last two years...earnings growth is spectacular because you're reducing your cost infrastructure... using software, cloud, inventory management tools, etc.” — Rick Rieder [03:23]

• On housing’s crucial, underestimated role:

  “Three quarters of the wealth in this country by people is in their home...the way young people build wealth is through their home.” — Rick Rieder [09:24]

• On rate policy and market strategy:

  “I just think you got to get the funds rate down a bit to 3%... that's the equilibrium rate today.” — Rick Rieder [06:32]

Key Timestamps

• [00:38–01:05] — Initial reaction to jobs report and labor market trends
• [02:46–05:19] — Discussion of productivity, AI, and labor market composition
• [05:19–07:18] — Unemployment, immigration, need for anticipatory monetary policy
• [07:18–08:43] — Limits of Fed action; importance of fiscal policy and housing
• [08:43–10:42] — Housing’s impact on wealth, fertility, and economic stability
• [10:42–12:22] — Fertility, student debt, and youth labor market challenges
• [12:22–14:23] — Investment strategy for 2026; yield, ETF growth, and market positioning
• [14:23–15:34] — ETF scaling and liquidity management
• [15:34–16:48] — Hedging, yield curve strategy, and volatility market
• [16:48–18:39] — Monetary policy critique, inflation drivers, equilibrium rates
• [18:39–19:23] — Potential Fed Chair candidacy (deflection & personal priorities)

Conclusion

Rick Rieder paints a nuanced picture of an economy fundamentally transformed by technology-driven productivity, contending with demographic headwinds and the limitations of monetary policy. His message: Structural issues require fiscal solutions, housing is pivotal to both economic growth and social renewal, and rate policy must carefully adapt to a new equilibrium. While he demurs on speculation about further public service, Rieder’s insights offer actionable guidance for fixed-income investors and policymakers alike.