Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie Talks Global Supply Chain, Oil

Summary

Bloomberg Talks – Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie Talks Global Supply Chain, Oil

Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Bloomberg (Jeff Curry, Karen Moscow)
Guest/Expert: Nathan Hager

---

Overview

This episode features a comprehensive discussion between Bloomberg’s Jeff Curry and commodities expert Nathan Hager, focusing on the current state and future trajectory of global energy supply chains, oil markets, and wider commodity risks amid recent geopolitical disruptions. The conversation provides a deep dive into the impacts of supply chain shocks, the risk of hoarding, central bank gold buying, and the new era (“regime change”) underway in global markets, drawing parallels with past cycles and highlighting unique vulnerabilities in today’s economic environment.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immediate Impact of Geopolitical Disruption on Energy Supply Chains

[00:49] – [02:06]

• Supply Chain Damage: Recent disruptions have affected not just oil but also gas, fertilizers, metals, and petrochemicals, with ripples across multiple countries and industries.
  • “This is not just a disruption. Oil, it's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The list goes on and on.” — Nathan Hager [00:59]
• Restoration Takes Time: Even if a ceasefire happens soon, restoring normalcy is a lengthy process—the supply chains, insurance, shipping patterns, and the fields themselves need months to unwind.
  • “The ships are in the wrong places, the insurances have been canceled… The damage is going to take months to unwind.” — Hager [01:19]
• Limited Policy Options: There are almost no immediate policy tools to halt the upward pressure on crude prices.
  • “There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude. None.” — Hager [01:31]

2. Hoarding, Demand Surges, and Lessons from the 1970s

[02:07] – [02:39]

• Hoarding as a Risk Factor: The cycle of hoarding, both by countries and individual consumers, is driving up demand and adding to the crisis.
  • “Keep the hoarding down. Because we know what happened in the 1970s… it created an increase of demand of somewhere around 2 million barrels per day.” — Hager [02:13]
• Behavioral Change: Consumers are increasingly keeping fuel tanks full, echoing panic behaviors seen in prior crises.
  • “They're hoarding anything they can get their hands on… Now they're going into the gas station filling it back up every time it gets to a half or even quarters.” — Hager [02:39]

3. Structural “Regime Change” – From Tech-Led to Resource-Led Economy

[03:15] – [04:21]

• End of an Era: The shift from a “light asset,” tech-led boom to a “heavy asset,” resource-driven environment is compared to the post-dot-com period after 2001 geopolitics changed the market.
  • “This is not a trade, this is a regime change. We're moving from that world that was defined from 2014 to 2024.” — Hager [03:16]
  • “What came after the dot com boom? Remember it was the exact same thing. You had a geopolitical event switched you in 2001… You were in an asset heavy boom.” — Hager [03:29]
• Upcoming Negotiations: Anticipation builds around upcoming talks between Xi and President Trump, seen as pivotal for future policy direction.
  • “The big thing to watch is when Xi and President Trump meet at the end of this month and that's going to be where the negotiation happens.” — Hager [04:13]

4. Underpricing the Physical World & Asset Allocation

[04:21] – [06:02]

• Repricing Hard Assets: There’s uncertainty about how high commodities can go, but a general consensus that the era favors “halo” (heavy asset, low obsolescence) investments: metals, gold, oil.
  • “Get long, buckle your seat belt, hang on for the ride and we're going to reprice this thing where it reprices.” — Hager [05:14]
  • “Own the hard assets, own the halos, own the anything that you know… I want to own metal, I want to own gold, I want to own oil.” — Hager [05:25]
• Revenge of the Old Economy: The period of commodity outperformance after a technology boom is called the “revenge of the old economy.”
  • “The term we called it in the 2000s was the revenge of the old economy because it was coming off the back of the dot com boom. This time around, I love that term ‘halo.’” — Hager [05:34]

5. Central Banks, Gold, and a Shift in Global Financial Flows

[06:02] – [07:22]

• Flight to Gold, Not Dollar Assets: Unlike previous oil shocks, countries now buy gold rather than recycle petrodollars into the US system due to sanctions risks and concerns over asset freezing.
  • “Ever since 2022, commodity prices spike… What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets.” — Hager [06:34]
• No More Shock Absorber: The old petrodollar recycling that buffered global markets is gone; US headline inflation and fiscal pressure are amplified by higher oil prices.
  • “Now transfer payments are bigger. The US debt is bigger, the interest payments are bigger… headline inflation goes up.” — Hager [07:04]

6. US Energy Dominance – Paradox at Multiple Levels

[07:22] – [08:24]

• Net Exporter, But Not Shielded: The US produces about as much energy as it consumes and runs a cash flow surplus, but its market wealth and credit exposure skew heavily toward non-energy sectors.
  • “Energy, 3% of the market. How big are the things that are short? 53%... You may be safe at the income level, but you're in real trouble at the wealth level. Then you get at the credit level…” — Hager [07:34]
• Sanctions Have Backfired: US/eurozone sanctions against Russian central bank assets turned a “shock absorber” into a “shock amplifier” for the world economy.

7. Asia's Vulnerability and Immediate Price Spikes

[08:24] – [08:58]

• Refining Crunch: Asia—especially refiners—are hurting already, with jet fuel spiking and a major refinery bombed in the Gulf.
  • “Jet fuel in Singapore spiked to over $230 a barrel. You're at that point and that's the hoarding is only amplifying it.” — Hager [08:34]
• Asia Faces Greatest Risks: The likelihood of deep shortages and acute impacts are highest in Asia moving forward.
  • “Asia is going to be the one that's going to be in the deepest problem big time.” — Hager [08:50]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude. None.” — Nathan Hager [01:31]
• “Keep the hoarding down. Because we know what happened in the 1970s… it created an increase of demand of somewhere around 2 million barrels per day.” — Hager [02:13]
• “Get long, buckle your seat belt, hang on for the ride and we're going to reprice this thing where it reprices.” — Hager [05:14]
• “Ever since 2022, commodity prices spike… What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets.” — Hager [06:34]
• “You may be safe at the income level, but you're in real trouble at the wealth level.” — Hager [07:39]
• “Asia is going to be the one that's going to be in the deepest problem big time.” — Hager [08:50]

---

Important Timestamps & Segments

• 00:49: Disruption to global supply chains, limitations of policy response
• 02:07: Discussion of hoarding and 1970s oil crisis parallels
• 03:15: “Regime change” from tech to asset-heavy era
• 04:21: Underpricing of the physical world; commodities on the rise
• 06:02: Central banks’ gold buying, petrodollar dynamics
• 07:22: US energy paradox — exporter status but financial vulnerability
• 08:24: Asia’s refinery/refined product crunch, immediate impacts

---

Summary

Nathan Hager and the Bloomberg team contextualize today’s commodity and energy crisis as far deeper than a temporary supply shock—arguing instead for a profound, multi-year transition with systemic effects across trade, finance, and asset markets. The conversation urges listeners to prepare for lasting volatility and new risk dynamics, especially as traditional financial “shock absorbers” no longer operate as in past crises. Investors are advised to look toward hard assets as persistent uncertainty and supply chain realignment reshape the global economic order, while policymakers face reduced leverage and sharper inflationary shocks. The narrative is rich with historical parallels, empirical data, and forward-looking strategic guidance for navigating what Hager calls a true “regime change.”

Transcript

[Apple Card Announcer]

This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Apple Card members can earn unlimited daily cash back on everyday purchases wherever they shop. This means you could be earning daily cash on just about anything, like a slice of pizza from your local pizza place or a latte from the corner coffee shop. Apply for Apple Card and the Wallet app to see your credit limit offer in minutes. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch terms and more at applecard.com

[Karen Moscow]

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

Radio news Jeff Curry of Color writing this. Even if a cease fire is reached in the coming days, it will take time to restart the energy supply chain. A legend of energy research joins us around the table. Jeff joins us for more. Jeff, good morning.

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

Good to see, Great to be here.

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

We've got time here, so let's take a step back. You believe that even if there's a cease fire tomorrow, right now, the next five minutes, the world's changed the commodities of the crude. What's changed?

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

For one, you've disrupted global supply chains. This is not just a disruption. Oil, it's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The list goes on and on. And then you've disrupted supply chains in countries all over the world. The ships are in the wrong places, the insurances have been canceled. You've taken the pressure out of the fields that you shut in in places like Saudi Arabia or Iraq or even in the uae. I can just. The list go goes on and on. The damage is going to take months to unwind. But I want to bring it to the immediate. There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude. None. And yes, you hear this 400 million barrel headline. Flow rate is what matters. You know, the maximum sustainable flow rate is 2 million barrels per day. So 400, that will take them 200 days to get that out. And you put that in the context of a disruption of, you know, let's net it out of. It's got to be somewhere around 18 million barrels per day right now. You're just miniscule in terms of offsetting it. So again, there's not many options here.

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

What would you call this then, a

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

PR campaign in terms of doing this? It's all they have. They're going to do whatever they can. But I think the key issue here, keep the hoarding down. Because we know what happened in the 1970s when you got the hoarding, you know, it created an increase of demand of somewhere around 2 million barrels per day. In the size of this market. Try 3 million barrels per day on top of the disruption of somewhere around 18.

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

That word comes up in your research repeatedly. Hoarding.

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

Yeah.

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

China has been rewarded for doing absolutely over the last 12 months. Do you think this will follow now?

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

They already are. You know, whether it's places like Japan and Korea, they're hoarding anything they can get their hands on at this point. And it even happens down to people driving. Keep your tank filled up by the way, that's meaningful in terms of the demand pull you, you know most people drive and they take it down to about a quarter fill and then refill it. Now they're going to be going into the gas station filling it back up every time it gets to a half or even quarters.

[Karen Moscow]

So what kind of premium you're talking about longer term? We were just speaking with Steve off a federated Hermes earlier saying that if oil prices go above $90 for a prolonged period of time that will cause real damage to the underlying economy. Is that a base case for you?

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

By the way, the one thing and we're going through a regime change. This is not a trade, this is a regime change. We're moving from that world that was defined from 2014 to 2024. You know, is that new economy boom, you know, Driven by Mag 7 is a technology boom ass similar to what we saw the dot com boom. What came after the dot com boom? Remember it was the exact same thing. You had a geopolitical event switched you in 2001 and then actually directly connected to the 911 was China's admission to WTO by the way they were connected. George Bush Jr. Needed to use force in the Middle East. He needed a vote in the UN Security Council. He traded admission of China into the WTO to get that vote. Boom. You're off to the races. You were in an asset heavy boom that lasted for over a decade of 2014. And then we went into the current light asset one and look, we're again in one of these huge geopolitical events and I think the big thing to watch is when Xi and President Trump meet at the end of this month and that's going to be where the negotiation happens.

[Karen Moscow]

You could argue that 2020 was the real jumpstart to the re industrialization of the world because people realize oh wait a second, the physical world actually takes time unlike sending things digitally. I just wonder how much still needs to be priced in to the physical world. And we've just been highlighted, we've just been shown the risk in the Oil markets. But more broadly, how much are we underpricing?

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

Some of what I don't think we know what can happen here. And what's going to happen is we're going to reprice everything. I mean it started by way metals since 2020 are just a straight line going up. Everybody looks at the last couple of months. But it's just. And when here's a point I like to say is that you looked at the returns of companies in 2000 when we were at $20 oil, they were like 20 or 30%. By the time we were around 2005 or 6, you're at 63 times on the oil price. What do you think? They were going down because the overall cost structure of the industry was rising. So we ask about how high it can go. Metals are going up, their cost of capital is going up, the currencies weaken, your labor goes up. All of this begins to happen. You reprice. I don't want to speculate. I like to say get long, buckle your seat belt, hang on for the ride and we're going to reprice this thing where it reprices. I got in trouble back in the 2000s with. I'm not going to repeat the numbers again, but I think the key point here, what do you want to own? Own the hard assets, own the halos, own the anything that you know. And I love that two term. The term we called it in the 2000s was the revenge of the old economy because it was coming off the back of the dot com boom this time around. I love that term halo, heavy asset, low obsolescence. Own those assets and hang on. And I want to own metal, I want to own gold, I want to own oil. And by the way, again, this is a huge disruption. It's just not isolated to oil.

[Karen Moscow]

What do you, what do you make though about central banks right now? Some of the dwindling reserves and some of their appetite to buy gold.

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

I think what you're going to see is even more demand for gold out of this because ultimately you're really going to question how is the financial situation in the U.S. i want to talk about what is really different about this time versus any other time in the last 50 years in oil. Anytime the oil price would spike pre 22 before the US in Europe froze central bank assets on Russia. Anytime oil prices would spike, you would have capital rotate into the U.S. the recycling that was the petrodollars that would act like QE buffer. It was called a shock absorber to the rest of the economy. That goes into gold now. So ever since 2022, commodity prices spike. These emerging markets get money. What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets because they don't want to get sanctions imposed on them like what happened to the Russians. And as a result, you don't have that money coming back. One other point you've got to keep in mind is now transfer payments are bigger. The US debt is bigger, the interest payments are bigger. So when oil prices go up, headline inflation goes up. That gets much bigger. In fact, we estimate you go to 120 and stay there. You're going to crowd out $150 billion of private credit because you're going to have to re basically issue that in public credit.

[Karen Moscow]

Jeff, you think the world is more vulnerable now than they were in 1973, but the US right now is a net exporter.

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

Oh, it's a net exporter at the income cash flow level, meaning they produce as much as they, they consume roughly. And I think you get an excess of around $80 billion on a $30 trillion economy. But let's say, put it this way, I call it the paradox of energy dominance. Let's go to the wealth level. Let's look at the equity market. Energy, 3% of the market 3. How big are the things that are short 53%. So you're long 3 and short 53 at the wealth level. And what is the multiple on that three? It's like 12 or 13. What is the multiple on the other one? 36. You're in trouble at the wealth level. You may be safe at the income level, but you're in real trouble at the wealth level. Then you get at the credit level. Now you've got that. You've taken your shock absorber because of the sanctions you imposed on Russia's central bank and turned it into a shock amplifier. So again, I agree with you. 100% energy dominance at the cash flow level, but not at the wealth level and not at the credit level.

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

Jeff, final question. It's on Asia. Refiners there have clearly got a bit of a cushion. Can you tell us how big that cushion is and how quickly before we start to see headlines across the Bloomberg on shortages?

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

Oh, you already are. Jet fuel in Singapore spiked to over $230 a barrel. You're at that point and that's the hoarding is only amplifying it. And you just took out a 900,000 barrel per day refinery that was bombed in there in the Gulf. So the situation on refined products is. And I think the key point here is it's Asia is going to be the one that's going to be in the deepest problem big time.

[Jeff Curry (Interviewer)]

Jeff is good to see you right. Thanks to all day. Always good. Jeff Curry there of Carlyle on the commodity market with crude this morning around $90 a barrel.

[Apple Card Announcer]

This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Apple Card members can earn unlimited daily cash back on everyday purchases wherever they shop. This means you could be earning daily cash on just about anything, like a slice of pizza from your local pizza place or a latte from the corner coffee shop. Apply for Apple Card and the Wallet app to see your credit limit offer in minutes subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City branch terms and more at applecard.com Bloomberg Daybreak is your

[Karen Moscow]

best way to get informed first thing in the morning, right in your podcast feed. Hi, I'm Karen Moscow.

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

And I'm Nathan Hager. Each morning we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US Edition. It's your daily 15 minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics and international relations.

[Karen Moscow]

Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak US Edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.

[Nathan Hager (Guest/Expert)]

Find us on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.