Bloomberg Talks: Nouriel Roubini on Geopolitics, AI, and the U.S. Economic Outlook

Date: February 18, 2026

Episode Overview

In this engaging episode, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & CEO at Roubini Macro Associates, sits down with Bloomberg’s team to discuss a wide range of critical global issues. Covering everything from the fate of cryptocurrencies, U.S. exceptionalism, and the global investment landscape to the impact of tariffs and the AI-driven economic boom, Roubini delivers sharp, often contrarian perspectives. He also unpacks the implications of American political shifts, U.S. leadership on the world stage, and challenges confronting monetary policy.

Key Topics & Insights

Bitcoin, Crypto, and the NFT Crash

• Roubini’s Position: The cryptocurrency crash is largely irrelevant to fundamental economic trends.
  • “Bitcoin is down from its peak by 50%. The other top 10 cryptocurrencies are down between 60 to 90%. ...Melania coin and the Trump coin are down 97, 99%. Even worse than fart coin is down only 95%.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 01:45)
  • On the future of Bitcoin: “It could go significantly lower, could stay where it is. ...Was a bubble. ...Who cares?”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 01:45–02:14)
• NFTs: “The NFT index is down 95% from the peak.”
  (Nouriel Roubini, 02:14)

Middle East Travels and Geopolitical Risk

• Recent Travels: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi.
• Key Concern: Worries among leaders and investors about potential conflict involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran.
  • “The Israeli view is that it's not just an issue about [Iran’s] nuclear bomb, but also about the missiles, ballistic missiles and the regional proxies.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 02:36)
  • U.S. foreign policy uncertainty, especially in a Trump administration, continues to create investment unease in the region.

American Exceptionalism and Global Investment Flows

• U.S. Remains Top Investment Choice:
  • “People say we don't like the U.S. in public and then they invest in the U.S. ...There is no other place to invest than the United States because China is risky and uninvestable for lots of good reasons.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 03:34)
• Potential U.S. Growth:
  • “The US potential growth by the end of this decade is going to be 4%, not 2. ...If growth is even only 3, let alone 3 and a half and 4, then returns have to be even higher.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 03:34)

Tariffs, the Trump Administration, and Market Instability

• Tariffs Spike and Retreat:
  • “On April 2nd [2025] he announced average effective tariffs of 30% as opposed to ... 3%. ...Market discipline is going to force him to chicken out and back down.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 05:16)
  • “Two weeks into that announcement Nasdaq was down 20%. ...He panicked. ...The average US tariff right now is not 30%, it's 14 and falling. ...They already chickened out in ’25 because the market forced them.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 05:16)
  • “They'll do more of it this year because ...midterm election and they need to try to boost the economy and reduce inflation. So tariffs are going down, not up.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 05:16)
• Lasting Impact:
  • “There's been some short term volatility, ...but [the] US trade and current account deficit regardless of tariffs is going to widen because ...US is in the middle of an investment boom driven by high technology...”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 06:37)

The U.S. Dollar and Global Markets

• Short-Term vs. Medium-Term Outlook:
  • “In the next few months [the dollar] could weaken more depending on relative monetary policy. ...Suppose you are [in] 2030 ...the US growth is 4 and Eurozone is stuck at 1% ...the euro has to be well below parity.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 07:37–07:59)

AI, Productivity, and Investment Booms

• AI’s Ripple Effect Across Sectors:
  • “To build AI data centers there's a supply chains of construction, of equipment, cooling, heating system, chipsets and so on.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 08:14)
  • “If you are any S&P 500 firm today and you don't have [an AI] strategy, you're dead because you could be disrupted.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 08:14)
  • “Profit margins for every S&P 500 firm has increased. Real revenues for all S&P 500 firms have gone up since ChatGPT has been launched by 15% so 5% per year.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 08:14)

Immigration and Economic Growth

• Skilled Labor Shortages:
  • “We need [immigration] because we have a bottleneck of skilled labor. ...TSMC is building a factory in Arizona. ...We don't have the skilled worker in Arizona.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 09:36)
• Productivity Boom Offsetting Labor Gaps:
  • “Even if we had net migration ...close to zero, I think the increases in productivity growth driven by the clouds of the future ...that are 15 other sectors where there is a productivity growth because of technology of the future.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 09:36)

U.S. Politics: Populism and After-Trump Trajectory

• Temporary Exception:
  • “Trump is going to be more a temporary exception rather than radical change of the U.S. ...With stronger economic growth, I think some of these backlash against liberal democracy and free market is going to shrink.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 11:24)
  • “If the GOP loses the House, Trump is going to be a lame duck. Anybody ...is going to say I want to run ...after midterms.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 11:24)

America’s Continued Global Leadership

• U.S. as Indispensable Partner:
  • “Even our friends and allies ...are unhappy because the US is behaving like a bully. But NATO is still there. ...Europe and friends and allies have no choice. ...We are technology, we are defense. ...They have no option but going with the US.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 12:48)
  • On reliance on American tech: “They have to go. We are technology, we are defense. We have our own system with our economic channels ...They have no option by going with the US.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 12:48)

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy

• Current Fed Leadership:
  • “That [the current Chair’s lack of academic credentials] doesn't bother me as much. ...I’m more concerned about these views. The view that you can ...reduce the Fed funds rate is wrong.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 14:11)
• Macro Dynamic – The “K-Shaped” Economy:
  • “We live in what everybody refers to as a K shaped economy. The top 10 to 80% is doing very well. The bottom 50% struggles from paycheck to paycheck. ...Even if you were to cut policy rates ...you're going to fuel on inflation and inflation is going to hurt more the working class.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 15:05)
  • “The solution is not going to be reducing the policy rate. ...You have to do stuff like providing education, skills retraining and all the things we're not doing.”
    (Nouriel Roubini, 15:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Even worse than fart coin is down only 95%.” (Roubini, 01:45)
• “People say we don't like the US in public and then they invest in the US.” (Roubini, 03:34)
• “So, tariffs are going down, not up.” (Roubini, 05:16)
• “If you are any S&P 500 firm today and you don't have a [AI] strategy, you’re dead.” (Roubini, 08:14)
• “Trump is going to be more a temporary exception rather than radical change of the U.S.” (Roubini, 11:24)
• “The top 10 to 80% is doing very well. The bottom 50% struggles from paycheck to paycheck.” (Roubini, 15:05)

Key Timestamps

• Bitcoin & Crypto Market Reality – 01:45–02:29
• Middle East Geopolitics – 02:33–03:18
• U.S. vs Global Investment Sentiment – 03:18–04:40
• Tariffs and Market Panic – 05:16–06:21
• Current Account Deficit & Dollar Strength – 06:37–07:59
• AI, Productivity, and CapEx – 08:14–09:27
• Immigration and Skilled Labor – 09:27–10:38
• American Populism & Future Politics – 11:24–12:30
• U.S. Global Power – 12:30–13:51
• Fed Leadership and Policy – 13:51–14:50
• Inequality and the K-Shaped Economy – 15:05–15:44

Conclusion

This episode provides a far-reaching conversation with Nouriel Roubini on the future of the global economy, the real state of crypto, American exceptionalism, the AI revolution, and the evolving challenges in U.S. politics, trade, and monetary policy. With sharp analysis and memorable one-liners, Roubini reaffirms his reputation as one of the most provocative and insightful economists of his generation.