Dan Ives on Big Tech’s AI Spending Spree

Summary

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks

Episode: Dan Ives on Big Tech’s AI Spending Spree
Date: August 5, 2026

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Overview

In this episode, Bloomberg hosts sit down with Dan Ives to dissect the tech sector’s current AI-driven momentum, focusing on Big Tech's enormous capital expenditures (capex) and the wider enterprise impact. Microsoft’s recent performance and the state of the AI “arms race”—from hyperscalers to chipmakers and secondary beneficiaries—are front and center. Dan Ives offers colorful analysis, likening the evolution of the AI boom to a Jenga puzzle and outlining both the direct and ripple effects of ongoing investments. Listeners also get a sense of investor reactions, notably Bill Ackman’s bold Microsoft play, and the impending shift from pure spending to monetization. The conversation is lively, technical, and occasionally light-hearted, including digressions on Hamptons hotspots.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Microsoft’s Momentum & Earnings as AI Inflection Point

• Jump Condition and Industry Impact

  • Dan Ives sees Microsoft’s recent quarter as a watershed moment for Big Tech’s AI transformation.
  • The market "was painting it wrong" on Microsoft’s readiness for the AI revolution.
  • “I believe what Microsoft showed in that quarter... is an inflection point for all of tech because it shows what’s happening in monetization, the hyperscalers... this is going to be a monumental sort of turning point.” – Dan Ives [01:34]

• Investor Perspective: Bill Ackman’s Move

  • Bill Ackman’s sizable Microsoft purchase was a signal to the street, showing new confidence.
  • "Ackman saw around the corner because investors were massively discounting what the monetization story was going to be with Azure... counting out Nadella because some of the open air stuff..." – Dan Ives [03:24]

• The Earnings Season Context

  • Despite volatility, Big Tech earnings reveal the industry is still early in the “game”.
  • "We're going to have white knuckle moments... But the reality is this earnings season shows you you're in the third inning. I can maybe even say bottom of the second.” – Dan Ives [03:44]

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2. AI Investment Ripple Effect

• The ‘Jenga Puzzle’ of AI Spending

  • Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are doubling down on capex; the real payoff is showing in monetization and enterprise use cases.
  • “The hyperscalers have basically doubled down in capex... Palantir front and center is showing you the enterprise use cases are accelerated... AMD, Nvidia... now it’s starting to spread. This is real, right. And you can’t even deny it.” – Dan Ives [04:28]

• The Multiplier Across Industries

  • The build-out of data centers, driven by AI, ripples far beyond core tech companies to benefit energy and industrials (e.g., Caterpillar, Bloom Energy).
  • “For every dollar in Capex there’s a five to six dollar multiplier across the rest of tech. And I think that just continues to be our theater.” – Dan Ives [06:41]

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3. Next Phases and Investor Sentiment

• Transition from Capex to Monetization

  • The market is now laser-focused on how companies will convert infrastructure investments into profits.
  • “You want to now see the baton handed from capex to modernization. There is just a laser focus on what’s going on in Cupertino... what they do on the consumer side by memory chips and everything else that is so important to their strategy.” – Dan Ives [07:26]

• US Leads AI for First Time in Decades

  • US tech’s dominance marks a significant reversal after decades trailing China.
  • "...for the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China." – Dan Ives [06:25]

• Secondary and Tertiary Impacts

  • AI’s innovation is circuitous, fueling new business models and secondary markets beyond core models (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic).
  • “What happens is... it’s about the data, the derivatives, the data center build out, the capex, what that's going to do to energy...” – Dan Ives [06:05]

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4. Memorable Quotes & Lighter Moments

• On Market Cyclicality
  • “We’re going to have white knuckle moments... you're in the third inning. I can maybe even say bottom of the second.” – Dan Ives [03:44]
• AI's Effect on Industrial Companies
  • “When you look at Caterpillar... Bloom Energy, Quanta... companies that are playing into the build out to the data centers...” – Dan Ives [06:41]
• Breakfast Burrito Price Tag
  • Little banter about Hamptons' breakfast prices: “I do think Golden Pear, I'd say are you maybe some of the best coffee in the United States. But I will say that that burrito, you know, I think it's priced high, but I think well worth it...” – Dan Ives [08:02]

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Timeline of Noteworthy Segments

| Timestamp | Topic / Quote | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:20 | Microsoft’s “inertial force” in AI transformation | | 02:03 | SpaceX and the challenge of long-term AI investment | | 03:17 | Bill Ackman’s Microsoft play & Wall Street reaction | | 04:28 | “Jenga Puzzle” of AI capex, hyperscaler strategy | | 06:05 | AI innovation: secondary & tertiary effects, US vs. China | | 06:41 | Catapillar, Bloom Energy and industrial beneficiaries | | 07:26 | Next phase: ROI & monetization, Apple’s consumer AI strategy | | 08:02 | “Golden Pear” breakfast burrito banter |

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a richly detailed, analytical—yet engaging—discussion of how massive AI investments are shifting the landscape not only in core tech but across a spectrum of downstream industries. Dan Ives highlights that, while Wall Street obsessively tracks each earnings report or capex cycle, we are still early in a multi-year transformation. Microsoft's recent quarter stands as a sector inflection point, but attention is now turning to when, where, and how AI infrastructure spending will be matched by genuine, sustainable monetization—especially as the “AI revolution” expands its ripples throughout the real economy.

Transcript

[Host]

When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, that isn't always easy. Risk can touch multiple parts of an organization at the same time, often in ways that aren't immediately obvious. It might involve property liability or cyber. It could stem from regulatory requirements or challenges tied to a specific industry or the scale of an operation. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline, not a one time decision. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. That means working with companies to identify where they're exposed, decide what matters most, and put practical standards in place so risk is managed as part of day to day operations. And when losses do happen, the Hartford can pair that risk control work with insurance coverage grounded in underwriting, risk engineering and claims experience developed over time. Learn [e-mail] riskmitigation

[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News if it's a power breakfast

[Co-host]

in Hamptons, you go to the Golden Bear.

[Host]

Is that what you do?

[Co-host]

Okay, you go to the Golden Pear. I don't know if Dan Ives is at the Golden Pear, but he's out east as they say. He's getting into the weekend.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Co-host]

He doesn't care about the jobs report?

[Host]

No, no, not at all.

[Co-host]

With Ives York Phil Dan Ives joins us right now. Dan, I really want to focus on Microsoft. The amount of inertial force to get that jump condition in Microsoft. Where did that inertial force come from?

[Dan Ives]

I mean, I think first of all, the market was painting it wrong relative to where they were on the revolution, the modernization piece. And like I've said, I mean, I believe what Microsoft showed in that quarter, I think that's an inflection point for all of tech because it shows what's happening in monetization, the hyperscalers. It's not just so important for Microsoft, I think important for the overall sector. We're going to look back and this is going to be a monumental sort of turning point.

[Host]

Hey Dan, it's we had Space X last night. I'd love for you to frame out what the SpaceX story is now versus maybe what it was at the IPO, because obviously there's been a lot of volatility in the stock. It's obviously a very long term story and it's obviously a big, big play on Elon Musk himself. What did you take away from the earnings release and the call last night?

[Dan Ives]

Look, I think part of it is that there's a longer Term vision. That's ultimately investors that bought in on the ipo. That's the view in terms of the broader AI space story and what Musk is going to do over the coming years when it comes to quarters. Look, there's no number that they're going to show. Then you could say neighborhood calm nerves. Right. Given the lockup and just given some of the nervousness you're seeing.

[Co-host]

Right.

[Dan Ives]

For them it's is to balance because cap X is how they're going to narrow the gap versus open air. And that continues to be the tug of war.

[Co-host]

Did Bill Ackman get this going? Because I had the clearest memory in Q1. He stepped in with, you know, for Bill Ackman an odd lot. You know, I mean it was a piece of change. Yep, 5.7 million shares, 2.1 billion. That's an odd lot for Bill Ackman.

[Host]

It's a big one.

[Co-host]

Did he get it started? Dan? Ice it was like omg Bill Ackman's long a stodgy Microsoft.

[Dan Ives]

Well I think, I mean Ackman saw around the corner because investors were massively discounting what the monetization story was going to be with Azure and I think ultimately counting out Nadella because some of the open air stuff and sort of the narrative and I think it just speaks to and we've talked about it obviously so much with you guys on the show. This is we're going to have white knuckle moments whether it's Microsoft, whether it's tech. But the reality is this earnings season shows you you're in the third inning. I can maybe even say bottom of the second. You almost go back to where this is all playing out relative to monetization, especially on the hyperscalers up 38% from

[Co-host]

the end of March.

[Host]

Yeah, just extraordinary. Hey Dan, so where are we broadly defined on this AI conversation in the marketplace? What is the narrative in the marketplace? Because we had big tech earnings last week and a couple companies stock reacted really positively and Microsoft being one of them, Amazon, but some others did not. What's the street thinking about AI these days?

[Dan Ives]

So I'd say let's put it like a Jenga puzzle. Okay. So the hyperscalers have basically double down in capex. The monetization you now see, whether it's alpha at Amazon, Microsoft, the software piece, I think Palantir front and center is showing you the enterprise use cases are accelerated. Even when you look at amd, despite what you saw, it just shows chips. We've said demand the supply 12 to 113 to 1, obviously. Nvidia front and center. When you piece it all together. Enterprise are accelerating, the hyperscalers see it. That ultimately is a key catalyst for chip stocks. And I think what you're essentially seeing now is that the second, third, fourth derivatives of this AI revolution, cybersecurity, among others, now it's starting to spread. This is real, right. And you can't even deny it.

[Co-host]

Okay, Dan, the reality is you're in the Hamptons because he's living large. So we all know that we're in Barron's and you know, it's like a thing. Dan, you need to go up the coast of Maine to Roque Bluff. Rogue Bluff.

[Host]

Yep.

[Co-host]

It's almost like where FDR summer place was on the border with Canada. Like they're more Montreal Canadian fans out there.

[Host]

I know.

[Co-host]

Than they are Boston Bruin fans. And Dan, we got a question here that's absolutely brilliant from, from Rogue Bluffs, Maine. I hope I'm pronouncing that right. Does the innovation of AI, does it, is it circuitous? Does it feed on itself into secondary and tertiary uses?

[Dan Ives]

That's our whole first of it's a great question and that's our whole thesis is that what essentially happens is not about the models open air and anthropic, it's about the data, the derivatives, the data center build out the capex, what that's going to do to energy and it goes back to like for the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China.

[Co-host]

Okay, industrial guy, how does it, I mean Caterpillar just blew out numbers. You're going to tell me its data centers. What's Dan Ives X axis for all these tertiary companies advantage by your AI world?

[Dan Ives]

Well I think that's where when you look at Caterpillar you look on the energy side like Bloom Energy quanta. I'm just giving examples of companies that are playing into the build out to the data centers the Capex build out. This is remember for every dollar in Capex there's a five to six dollar multiplier across the rest of tech. And I think that just continues to be our theater. And I think this earnings season, earnings now caught up maybe just where some stocks were.

[Host]

So what's the, what's the next thing that you think the street's looking for over the next 2, 3, 4/4, Dan, is it more ROI evidence? Is it a scaling back in capex? What do you think the street's looking for?

[Dan Ives]

Monetization. You want to now see like it came with the X axis. You want to now see go the baton handed from capex to modernization. And I also think there is just a laser focus what's going on in Cupertino because the consumer AI revolution runs through Tina. What they do on the consumer side by memory chips and everything else that is so important to their strategy.

[Co-host]

Dan is a $22 ultimate breakfast burrito at the Golden Pear Cafe. Is that a little rich for you? I mean just a breakfast burrito, $22.

[Host]

Oh wow.

[Co-host]

It.

[Dan Ives]

I mean look, I do think Golden Pear, I'd say are you maybe some of the best coffee in the United States. But I will say that that burrito, you know, I think it's priced high, but I think well worth it. You know, for those that have never

[Co-host]

tried it, I mean the chicken panini is just unbelievable. Lunch, they charge more for that.

[Host]

Okay.

[Co-host]

You can't even get in the door there half the time. Right?

[Dan Ives]

It is crap. But I mean Keane, he would. You'd have VIP access but for others. But for others, the regular people, the non keen, they'd have to wait online.

[Co-host]

God, can you see me out there? I don't think so.

[Dan Ives]

I can picture it. The bow tie going into golden pair. I see the scene.

[Co-host]

Bill Nye the science guy busted my chops on that a while back. He was like the nerd patrol.

[Host]

Yep, there you go.

[Co-host]

Dan Ives, go away in the Hamptons. Thank you so much for the perspective.

[Carol Massar]

This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work, I'm Carol Massar. Globe trotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear. Bloomberg's Wan Ha reports that airlines from Delta to Virgin Atlantic are adopting artificial intelligence to change seed prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time. However, helping capture more revenue while shrinking pricing gaps that once allowed travelers to find bargain fares. Machine learning models can more accurately forecast demand by analyzing historical booking patterns, seat inventory and seasonal trends, while also continuously tracking competitors fares and capacity changes to update prices in near real time. The technology could lead to higher fares on busy routes as airlines pack flights closer to capacity, but may also result in lower fares on off peak and lower demand routes. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get [e-mail] today by selecting work mode available on plus and Pro plans

[Host]

when you're running a business the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, risk can affect multiple parts of the organization at once, from property and liability to cyber and regulatory challenges. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. And when losses do happen, that work is paired with insurance coverage shaped by years of underwriting, risk engineering and claims experience. Learn more@the Hartford.com riskmitigation policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut.