Dan Ives Talks Top AI Plays for 2026

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks — Dan Ives Talks Top AI Plays for 2026

Date: December 30, 2025
Host: Paul Sweeney (Bloomberg)
Guest: Dan Ives (Senior Tech Analyst & Head of Technology Research, Wedbush Securities)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on tech investing opportunities—particularly in Artificial Intelligence (AI)—as we head into 2026. Dan Ives, a recurrent and outspoken tech analyst, joins Paul Sweeney to dissect the current tech landscape, preview the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, and forecast which AI-related companies and technologies have the best growth potential. The discussion ranges from chipmakers and software plays to energy challenges and the US-China tech rivalry.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Investment Outlook for 2026: AI's Dominance

• CES as the Tone-Setter:

  • [01:03] Dan Ives previews CES 2026, saying Jensen Huang’s keynote (Nvidia CEO) will “set the tone” for the year, especially for “autonomous robotics, physical AI.”
  • He expects a “booming year for AI and tech stocks,” especially in software.

• AI Software and Infrastructure Winners:

  • [01:20] Ives highlights software names such as Palantir, MongoDB, Snowflake, and security/infrastructure plays like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks.
  • Oracle is flagged as an underappreciated name:

    "Oracle is the name that I think investors are just throwing in the garbage. That's the one I think investors are getting." (Dan Ives, 01:33)

  • Stocks with ties to OpenAI (AMD, Microsoft, Oracle) have been “sold off significantly,” which Ives sees as an opportunity.

• Market Optimism:

  • [02:30] Ives estimates tech stocks could rise “25% really in 2026,” especially with the AI revolution still heating up:

    "It's 10:30, 10:45 pm, party goes to 4 am starting 9 pm, and OpenAI is going to play a huge role in that." (Dan Ives, 02:32)

The AI Hardware Race & US-China Tech Dynamics

• Nvidia’s Lead:

  • [03:00] Ives emphatically says:

    “There’s only one godfather of AI. He’s wearing a black leather jacket, his name’s Jensen.”

    • He believes Nvidia is “five years ahead of any other competitor,” with demand high even for their restricted chips in China.
    • AMD is cited as another major play.
  • The “AI arms race” is heating up with US companies (Google, Microsoft) ramping up their chip efforts.

• US Ahead of China:

  • [03:35] Ives marks 2026 as the first time in 30 years that the US is “ahead of China when it comes to tech.”

    “For the first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.” (Dan Ives, 03:35)

  • He shares a colorful anecdote contrasting his trips to Taiwan tech fabs and the US:

    “I’d be in Taiwan 18 hours seeing factory fabs, then land in Newark Airport, there’s some fistfight, Dunkin Donuts, and you’re like, wow, we are like so behind now. So switched.” (Dan Ives, 03:58)

AI IPOs, Bubbles, and Supply-Demand Dynamics

• OpenAI & IPOs:

  • [04:15] Sweeney asks if OpenAI will go public in 2026. Ives sees this as a “seminal event” more likely in early 2027 but maybe a filing in 2026.

• Is It a Bubble?

  • [04:30] Ives rebuts bubble concerns, stating the best AI companies haven't even gone public yet—demand for growth stocks far outpaces supply, especially for Nvidia chips (ratio “12 to 1 in Asia”).

Biggest Threats to AI's Growth: Energy & Regulation

• [05:08] Ives warns:

  “If you’re saying what could spoil the AI party...it’s energy and regulation.”

  • He singles out energy constraints as the “biggest restriction,” believes nuclear will be crucial, and references Google's strategic move into energy ownership.

Anticipation for CES 2026

• [05:49] Sweeney senses CES may bring “a seminal announcement,” whether in product, service, or partnership, with the AI revolution at its core.

• Quantum Computing and Robotics:

  • [06:12] Ives tells listeners to watch for bullish pivoting on quantum technology and sees Nvidia doubling down on robotics.
  • “The one thing to stress to anyone listening is this is not just about ChatGPT...this is the year Apple goes deep dives into...AI on the consumer side.” (Dan Ives, 07:22)
  • He likens this moment to 1996, not the dot-com bubble era—hinting at real, foundational innovation.

China’s Growing CES Presence

• [08:07] Ives expects an even bigger Chinese tech presence at CES, with companies out to “flex muscles on the global stage” even if restricted from the US market.

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Notable Quotes

• On Nvidia’s Dominance:

  "There's only one godfather of AI. He's wearing a black leather jacket, his name’s Jensen. And I think they are five years ahead of any other competitor." (Dan Ives, 03:00)

• On The AI Boom:

  "It's 10:30, 10:45 pm, party goes to 4 am starting 9 pm, and OpenAI is going to play a huge role in that." (Dan Ives, 02:32)

• On AI Bubble Fears:

  "Some of the best companies that are haven't even gone public yet... the supply is 12 to 1 for Nvidia chips today in Asia." (Dan Ives, 04:26 & 04:54)

• On Growth Constraints:

  "If you’re saying what could spoil the AI party...it’s energy and regulation." (Dan Ives, 05:13)

• On The Significance of CES:

  "For so many years, CES is like, oh great, a refrigerator that talks to you, a cool drone... now it’s really become like central... to the AI revolution." (Dan Ives, 06:12)

• On US-China Competition:

  “For the first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.” (Dan Ives, 03:35)
  “I’d be in Taiwan 18 hours seeing factory fabs, then land in Newark Airport, there’s some fistfight, Dunkin Donuts, and you’re like, wow, we are like so behind now. So switched.” (Dan Ives, 03:58)

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Timestamps for Important Topics

• [01:03] — Outlook for AI in 2026 and key tech stocks
• [02:30] — AI “party just starting”; OpenAI’s role
• [03:00] — Nvidia’s lead in AI chips and the global arms race
• [03:35] — US vs. China: America’s tech lead
• [04:15] — OpenAI IPO possibilities and AI supply-demand mismatch
• [05:08] — Biggest challenges: Energy and regulation
• [05:49] — Anticipation for major CES 2026 announcements
• [06:12] — CES as the center of the AI revolution; robotics, quantum, Apple’s role
• [08:07] — China’s growing role and motivation at CES

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Tone & Memorable Moments

• The interview is lively, informal, and direct; Dan Ives injects humor and uses vivid metaphors (“party goes to 4 am,” “godfather of AI in a black leather jacket,” “if you’re not at CES, it’s like sitting by the kitchen at a wedding”).
• There’s a sense of excitement—tinged with some caution—about 2026 being a pivotal year for AI, both in terms of technology and investing.
• The Penn State football segment [08:56] is a fun, personal aside, underscoring Ives’ personality but is not central to the tech discussion.

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Summary Takeaways

• 2026 is set to be a major year for AI, both for “picks and shovels” (hardware and infrastructure) and for software/platform plays.
• Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, and security companies are at the top of Dan Ives’ list.
• The key rate-limiting factors will be energy supply and regulation, not lack of demand or innovation.
• CES 2026 is pivotal and expected to showcase not just gadgets, but catalytic developments for the next phase of AI—and signals a global stage for both US and Chinese innovators.
• Amid AI bubble talk, Ives stresses the real economic and technological momentum at work, drawing a sharp distinction between the genuine transformation now and the hype of 1999-2000.

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For those tracking where AI and tech investing is headed in 2026, this episode is an energetic, insightful roadmap to the sector’s major players, risks, and underappreciated stories.

Transcript

[Paul Sweeney]

Indiana University is proving how higher education can create solutions with industry. We're working side by side with industry partners to fuel economic growth that powers a future ready workforce. Explore IU's impact at iu.edu impact.

[Dan Ives]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio news.

[Paul Sweeney]

Think back on 2025, the returns we've had in equities and fixed income and commodities. I think about 2026, where are some opportunities and where you really want is in technology. We can do that with Dan Ives. He's a senior tech analyst and head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. Dan, thanks for being in our studio.

[Dan Ives]

Great beer as always.

[Paul Sweeney]

All right, set us, let's set us up for 2026 in tech. I mean this Consumer Electronics show is in a couple of weeks in Vegas. I'm sure you're going to be there. Huge presence there. Use my name. If you go to Bellagio, they'll take care of you.

[Dan Ives]

I know you say Sweeney. It always gets you the best deal.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

It does. It opens doors.

[Paul Sweeney]

Opens doors.

[Dan Ives]

It opens. Yeah.

[Paul Sweeney]

What are you thinking about 2026 here for AI?

[Dan Ives]

Look, I mean obviously it starts off at CES where I think that Jensen speech on that Monday is going to set the tone. Tone set right. In terms of autonomous robotics, physical AI. But look, I think the reality is is that despite a lot of the haters and the bears in hibernation mood, it is going to be, I think just a booming year for AI and tech stocks, especially in the first half of the year. I think investors are underestimating specifically on software. We talk about not just Palantir but mongodb, Snowflake, a lot of the infrastructure plays, Nebbyist and some of those others. It's about the derivative plays, the second, third, fourth derivatives, CrowdStrike, cybersecurity, Palo Alto. And I think what we're going to see play out Microsoft, Oracle. Look, I think we sit here a year from now. Oracle is the name that I think investors are just throwing in the garbage. That's the one I think investors are getting because it's the view like taking on debt. OpenAI is not going to be good for their bill. Look, if you look at any open AI related tech stock from AMD to Microsoft to Oracle, those stocks have sold off significantly. And I think the reality is this is an AI revolution where you're in, we talk about the AI part. It's 10:30, 10:45pm party goes to 4am starting 9pm and OpenAI is going to play a huge role in that, in the infrastructure build out. So to me, Paul, it's like, I think like tech stocks, they're up 25% really in 2026.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

But I mean, is that the big names like Nvidia? Because I think to myself, lots of competition out there for them. First of all, supply chain challenges continue. But you've also got Google and Amazon, big competitors who are playing catch up with Nvidia. Can, can it really hold on to that momentum in 2026?

[Dan Ives]

There's only one godfather of AI. He's wearing a black leather jacket, his name's Jensen. And I think they are five years ahead of any other competitor. That's why look for them like even their third best chip, restricted H200 right in China, despite whatever the politics, Baba, JD Tencent, they want those chips because it comes down to like they are so many years ahead of competition. I think, look, amd that's going to be a major play that we see playing out. And then I think you start to look at like what Google's doing, what Microsoft is doing in this chip world. It's in an AI arms race. But here's the deal. For the first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

How about that?

[Dan Ives]

That, that is, I think that's really like the most important thing here.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

That's getting lost in the sauce. I feel what you just said.

[Dan Ives]

Well, it is because for so many times, like I'd be in Taiwan 18 hours seeing like factory fabs, then land in Newark Airport, there's some fistfight, Dunkin Donuts and you're like, wow, we are like so behind now.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yep.

[Dan Ives]

So switched.

[Paul Sweeney]

So is OpenAI going to go public in 2026 and is that going to.

[Dan Ives]

Be a seminal event for I think early 27?

[Paul Sweeney]

Okay.

[Dan Ives]

They go, they could file maybe by the way, 26. But I think that's the thing like Space X, you think about anthropic, you think, think about open AI. Look, the reality is, is that, you know, people talk about bubble. Some of the best companies that are haven't even gone public yet. And I think there's, there's a supply demand for big growth names. And that's why to me, I think investors that are saying it's a bubble tax done, they're doing it from the 25th floor of New York City office building or Metro North. Right. I mean the reality is like for someone like me that sees it globally, sees the demand, demand, the supply is 12 to 1 for Nvidia chips today in Asia.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

But here's the question, is there enough Energy out there to meet that supply. Because that's one of the biggest, the biggest challenge going forward.

[Dan Ives]

That's. Look, if you think like the thing to me that like, if you're saying what could spoil the AI party, right, it's not about demand, fourth Industrial revolution, it's not about like the use cases, it's energy and regulation. And look, energy. That's why, like, you know, you look what's happened in nuclear, you saw the TAE deal with, you know, obviously Trump media. You saw what Google's doing in terms of them buying their own energy company. I mean energy is the biggest restriction in the us But I continue to believe like nuclear is going to be the play there.

[Paul Sweeney]

CES, it's 200, 250, 300,000 people to send on Vegas for it. It's been going there for 40 years. I've been going to this thing. This one feels like we might get like a seminal announcement coming out of this, whether it's a product, a service, an investment, a deal. It just feels like maybe this CES might be something where something really material pops out of.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I agree. Because like, look, for so many years CES is like, oh great, a refrigerator that talks to you, a cool drone that now it's really become like central to the to. When you think about the AI revolution, I think when you talk about chips, when you look what's coming out of amd, I think Nvidia is really going to double down on robotics. I think Quantum is another one. If you go back a year ago, that's where Jensen was sort of quantum's like 10, 15 years away. Quantum stock sold up. I actually think there's going to be a lot more bullish when it comes to Quantum. And look, I know half the companies that I know that are going there, they're not officially there. Why are they going there? They're not going there to, you know, to go to the Cosmo or go to the Wind for dinner. They're going because they're looking, they're looking for acquisition capital.

[Paul Sweeney]

I kind of feel like during ces, if I talk to a CEO, I think my first question is gonna be, why are you not in Vegas? Like, I don't care what business you're in, I'm in the paint.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

You're touched by the technology.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, exactly. But to Paul's point, this isn't just about like consumer gadgets, hundred inch televisions that somehow talk to you now. It's really become central to like where the technology they met the Chinese presence there in Terms of xpeng, byd everyone else you think about autonomous robotics. And that's why like I think the one thing like to stress to anyone listening is like this is not just about like ChatGPT. What model do you use? We are now this is the year Apple goes deep dives into deep end the pool when it comes to AI on the consumer side. We're now going to hit the next level of the air revolution. But this is a 1996 moment, not 19992000 bubble moment.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

Yes, thankfully. Do we, do we expect a big China presence at this thing Given the relationship right now between the US and China.

[Dan Ives]

If you're a China tech company, you have to come here. And I think like when I think about like the presence last year that was already significant. This year it is, it's booming because for them, okay, like they're not gonna be able to sell into the US at least currently. But this for them it's a flex to muscles on the global stage in terms of them selling. South America, Europe, Australia.

[Unidentified Host/Interviewer]

I mean that world descends upon cities, right?

[Dan Ives]

Cause like when you this is the world event but to Paul's point, like if you're not there, it's almost like being in a wedding and at a table by the kitchen with random people. Instead of being like kind of like Paul, he's always like front and center like he's at the cool table.

[Paul Sweeney]

Matt Campbell named 17th Penn State head football COACH what do you think?

[Dan Ives]

Look, I think Campbell like he is the right guy for Penn State. I mean it's not just that, it's the staff he's going to bring in. He knows how to recruit. I think he's the magic formula. I think now we'll get Danton Lin from USC as a defensive coordinator. He this is going to build the stage to what I like. People will say next year I got to rebuild near. I disagree. I think this gets us back into the playoffs next year and it goes back to the dream for Natty in 27 or 28.

[Paul Sweeney]

There we go. Penn State a new cycle there as coach Franklin moves on to Virginia Tech. We got the Matt Campbell tenure coming up there at Penn State and Dan Ives very is an alum and very involved in this school. Dan Ives, thanks so much for joining us. Senior tech analyst at Wedbush securities giving us the latest thoughts there.

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