Bloomberg Talks – Dana Peterson Talks Markets in 2026

Date: January 2, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Dana Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the confusing economic data as 2025 ends and the challenges of interpreting mixed signals in markets, employment, inflation, and consumer sentiment as the U.S. heads into 2026. Dana Peterson of The Conference Board shares her perspective on what the latest data really signal for the economy, explaining why economists and policymakers remain cautious, and what consumers and workers should expect in the early months of the new year.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Noisy and Confusing State of U.S. Economic Data

[00:40–02:05]

• Economic Blind Spots: The year ended with uncertainty in data for Q3 and Q4, with mismatched numbers in inventory and trade, leaving analysts struggling to interpret the true economic picture.
• Delayed Data Releases: After a government shutdown, delays and messy data have created additional uncertainty.
  • Dana Peterson: "When you add up the imports plus the consumption, the inventories numbers just don't make sense.” [01:33]
• Need for Forthcoming Data: Upcoming reports on inventories, international trade, business sentiment, and employment are essential to clarify the economic landscape.

2. Interpreting Mixed Signals Amid ‘Noise’

[02:05–03:12]

• Stock Market vs. Real Economy: Stock performance isn't reflecting the real economic struggles, especially since most people are not invested in equities.
  • Dana Peterson: “The stock market does not reflect the real economy, so we can't look to that. And also people who—most people don't own stocks, so they’re not really benefiting from that.” [02:34]
• Consumer and Business Sentiment: Lower consumer sentiment and weaker end-of-Q3 retail sales stress the need for more comprehensive information. Dana emphasizes that patchwork data (like retail sales snapshots or company earnings) can't fully capture the economy's health.

3. Consumer Confidence, Tariffs, and Spending Patterns

[03:12–04:47]

• Dipping Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to post-pandemic lows.
  • Notable Quote: “Consumers are less sanguine about the current conditions as well as having some concerns about the future.” – Dana Peterson [02:54]
• Tariffs Uncertainty: Businesses are cautious due to unpredictable tariffs, with their impacts yet to fully materialize, especially regarding inflation.
  • Dana Peterson: “We need to really get beyond the first quarter of this year to really see what's happening because I think that's when we're going to see the bigger effects of tariffs on inflation and consumers really pull back.” [04:33]
• Shifting Consumer Habits: Although most are still employed, laid-off workers struggle to find new jobs, and spending patterns have turned more frugal—opting for cheaper entertainment.

4. Wages vs. Inflation

[04:47–06:02]

• Divided Perspectives: Some analysts find wages have kept up with or exceeded inflation (on a six-year average), while others, including real-world household examples, disagree.
• Dana’s View: Wages are still rising compared to pre-pandemic years, but recently growth has slowed considerably.
  • Notable Quote: “I would look at the last GDP data where we saw real disposable income grow at 0.0 percentage points annualized in the third quarter. That's not a good sign.” [05:39]
• Conclusion: Prosperity in wage growth is inconsistent, with recent signs pointing toward sluggish gains that may increasingly weigh on consumers into the new year.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Economic Data Confusion:
  "When you add up the imports plus the consumption, the inventories numbers just don't make sense."
  — Dana Peterson [01:33]

• On Markets vs. Main Street:
  "The stock market does not reflect the real economy, so we can't look to that. And also people who—most people don't own stocks, so they’re not really benefiting from that."
  — Dana Peterson [02:34]

• On Future Data Clarity:
  “We need to really get beyond the first quarter of this year to really see what's happening because I think that's when we're going to see the bigger effects of tariffs on inflation and consumers really pull back.”
  — Dana Peterson [04:33]

• On Wage Growth Stagnating:
  “I would look at the last GDP data where we saw real disposable income grow at 0.0 percentage points annualized in the third quarter. That's not a good sign.”
  — Dana Peterson [05:39]

Important Timestamps

• 00:40–01:11 – Economic data confusion and inventory/trade discrepancies highlighted
• 02:05–03:12 – Interpreting signals amidst data noise; market vs. real economy
• 03:12–04:47 – Consumer confidence, tariffs, and evolving spending trends
• 04:47–06:02 – Wage growth, inflation, and realities for American households

Conclusion:
Dana Peterson's insights suggest that despite some headline figures and resilient employment, the economy’s real underlying trends in late 2025 are cloudy and uncertain. Businesses and consumers remain cautious, and more reliable data is needed in early 2026 to understand where inflation, wages, and spending are truly headed.

Listeners are left with a sense of wariness but also pragmatic advice: be patient for more robust data and don’t base decisions solely on noisy, incomplete indicators.