Dana Peterson Talks Markets in 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Talks – Dana Peterson Talks Markets in 2026

Date: January 2, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Dana Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the confusing economic data as 2025 ends and the challenges of interpreting mixed signals in markets, employment, inflation, and consumer sentiment as the U.S. heads into 2026. Dana Peterson of The Conference Board shares her perspective on what the latest data really signal for the economy, explaining why economists and policymakers remain cautious, and what consumers and workers should expect in the early months of the new year.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Noisy and Confusing State of U.S. Economic Data

[00:40–02:05]

• Economic Blind Spots: The year ended with uncertainty in data for Q3 and Q4, with mismatched numbers in inventory and trade, leaving analysts struggling to interpret the true economic picture.
• Delayed Data Releases: After a government shutdown, delays and messy data have created additional uncertainty.
  • Dana Peterson: "When you add up the imports plus the consumption, the inventories numbers just don't make sense.” [01:33]
• Need for Forthcoming Data: Upcoming reports on inventories, international trade, business sentiment, and employment are essential to clarify the economic landscape.

2. Interpreting Mixed Signals Amid ‘Noise’

[02:05–03:12]

• Stock Market vs. Real Economy: Stock performance isn't reflecting the real economic struggles, especially since most people are not invested in equities.
  • Dana Peterson: “The stock market does not reflect the real economy, so we can't look to that. And also people who—most people don't own stocks, so they’re not really benefiting from that.” [02:34]
• Consumer and Business Sentiment: Lower consumer sentiment and weaker end-of-Q3 retail sales stress the need for more comprehensive information. Dana emphasizes that patchwork data (like retail sales snapshots or company earnings) can't fully capture the economy's health.

3. Consumer Confidence, Tariffs, and Spending Patterns

[03:12–04:47]

• Dipping Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to post-pandemic lows.
  • Notable Quote: “Consumers are less sanguine about the current conditions as well as having some concerns about the future.” – Dana Peterson [02:54]
• Tariffs Uncertainty: Businesses are cautious due to unpredictable tariffs, with their impacts yet to fully materialize, especially regarding inflation.
  • Dana Peterson: “We need to really get beyond the first quarter of this year to really see what's happening because I think that's when we're going to see the bigger effects of tariffs on inflation and consumers really pull back.” [04:33]
• Shifting Consumer Habits: Although most are still employed, laid-off workers struggle to find new jobs, and spending patterns have turned more frugal—opting for cheaper entertainment.

4. Wages vs. Inflation

[04:47–06:02]

• Divided Perspectives: Some analysts find wages have kept up with or exceeded inflation (on a six-year average), while others, including real-world household examples, disagree.
• Dana’s View: Wages are still rising compared to pre-pandemic years, but recently growth has slowed considerably.
  • Notable Quote: “I would look at the last GDP data where we saw real disposable income grow at 0.0 percentage points annualized in the third quarter. That's not a good sign.” [05:39]
• Conclusion: Prosperity in wage growth is inconsistent, with recent signs pointing toward sluggish gains that may increasingly weigh on consumers into the new year.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Economic Data Confusion:
  "When you add up the imports plus the consumption, the inventories numbers just don't make sense."
  — Dana Peterson [01:33]

• On Markets vs. Main Street:
  "The stock market does not reflect the real economy, so we can't look to that. And also people who—most people don't own stocks, so they’re not really benefiting from that."
  — Dana Peterson [02:34]

• On Future Data Clarity:
  “We need to really get beyond the first quarter of this year to really see what's happening because I think that's when we're going to see the bigger effects of tariffs on inflation and consumers really pull back.”
  — Dana Peterson [04:33]

• On Wage Growth Stagnating:
  “I would look at the last GDP data where we saw real disposable income grow at 0.0 percentage points annualized in the third quarter. That's not a good sign.”
  — Dana Peterson [05:39]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:40–01:11 – Economic data confusion and inventory/trade discrepancies highlighted
• 02:05–03:12 – Interpreting signals amidst data noise; market vs. real economy
• 03:12–04:47 – Consumer confidence, tariffs, and evolving spending trends
• 04:47–06:02 – Wage growth, inflation, and realities for American households

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Conclusion:
Dana Peterson's insights suggest that despite some headline figures and resilient employment, the economy’s real underlying trends in late 2025 are cloudy and uncertain. Businesses and consumers remain cautious, and more reliable data is needed in early 2026 to understand where inflation, wages, and spending are truly headed.

Listeners are left with a sense of wariness but also pragmatic advice: be patient for more robust data and don’t base decisions solely on noisy, incomplete indicators.

Transcript

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[Interviewer]

The latest US Data Blind spots weighing on economic Forecasts in the New Year data Peterson of the conference board writing 2025 is ending on a confusing note for markets, economists and central bankers alike. So we should not completely ignore the data. Dana joins us now. Happy New Year. Thank you so much for being with us. Dana, let's start with the data that we have gotten. Why is it so nois? How should people look at it, considering that people do view it as somewhat noisy, but also they can't ignore it.

[Dana Petersen]

Exactly. You can't ignore these data. We did have data for the third quarter. Certainly the GDP came in a lot stronger than expected and certainly consumption was a lot stronger. Even though we did have data, it shows that the Fed, I mean, the Federal Reserve, sorry, it shows that the federal government probably had more data in between releases and certainly after of the shutdown. But I think the key thing is that inventories and trade were very confusing and indeed, when you add up the inventories, well, when you add up the imports plus the consumption, the inventories numbers just don't make sense. So we really need to get data next week on inventories as well as international trade, business sentiment, and also employment. I think we really need to see more data to get a handle on what happened in the third quarter and also what happened in the fourth quarter.

[Interviewer]

Dana, we are going to get some data come next week that is going to be important, including the nonfarm payrolls as well as some of the manufacturing aspects that you're talking about. Nonetheless, we have a host of other information out there that people keep pointing to, whether it's adp, whether it's earnings, whether it's the rhetoric coming out of a lot of companies or whether it's retail sales. I mean, is there some sort of conclusion that you can take even amid the noise?

[Dana Petersen]

Well, I think, you know, certainly the stock market does not reflect the real economy, so we can't look to that. And also people who most people don't own stocks so they're not really benefiting from that. We do have lots of sentiment data. Of course, our consumer sentiment data has shown that consumers are less sanguine about the current conditions as well as having some concerns about the future. You know, retail sales, all we have really is the end of the third quarter and they were weaker. So I think that we just need more information. And you can't look at these things and try to estimate what the government data is going to tell us.

[Interviewer 2]

I'm looking at the conference Board consumer confidence index and it hasn't been this low since the pandemic. So what does that tell us about, you know, inflation, growth, spending?

[Dana Petersen]

Well, I think the inflation bit has yet to hit us. Remember, the tariffs that were implemented were delayed twice and also they were raised and lowered several times. So many businesses are still waiting to see if there's any certainty with respect to tariffs. Yes, we've had a number of deals established, but there's still a lot that's unknown. And so with businesses uncertain, it doesn't mean that. It just means that we're not going to see much hiring. We're not seeing layoffs, which is good. Most people still are working, but those who do get laid off are finding it very difficult to find jobs. And even though most consumers are working and they actually are spending, the type of spending that they're engaged with is very different. They're buying things that they need. And when it comes to, especially with goods and services, and when it does, it does come to things that are entertaining, they're buying cheap things, right? Cheap thrills like streaming instead of going to the movies and paying, you know, over $100 for a family of four. And so I think we need to really get beyond the first quarter of this year to really see what's happening because I think that's when we're going to see the bigger effects of tariffs on inflation and consumers really pull back.

[Interviewer 2]

Dana, I've been trying to pin down how workers wages have kept up with inflation. As I've been saying, you know, Torsten Slok put out a six year average showing that wages are doing pretty better than inflation. But Mark Chandler, whom we just spoke with from Banenbrook, says in his household that certainly isn't the case. And he doesn't, he doesn't think that, that it looks like a great picture for, for consumers. How do you see it?

[Dana Petersen]

Well, yes, wage growth and compensation have been slowing from the peaks that we saw during the, the pandemic. Certainly the later portion of the pandemic when we were trying to get everybody back into the labor market, you need to entice them and with compensation. But still, I mean, I would say that wages are still growing at a pace that's above where we were between the great financial crisis and the pandemic. And but I would look at the last GDP data where we saw real disposable income grow at 0.0 percentage points annualized in the third quarter. That's not a good sign. And so we definitely do see slowing in wages. And for some people it may be faster than others.

[Interviewer]

Dana Petersen of the Conference Board, thank you so much for being with us this morning on the first trading day of the new year.

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