Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett Talks Oil Price Pressure, US Jobs Report

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks Podcast Summary

Episode: Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett Talks Oil Price Pressure, US Jobs Report
Date: March 6, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council

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Episode Overview

This episode features a timely conversation between Bloomberg’s host and Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, focusing on the surprise downside in the latest US Jobs Report, ongoing oil price pressures linked to global supply disruptions (especially in the Middle East), and financial market stress—particularly in private credit. Hassett addresses the causes behind the recent labor data, outlines the administration’s views on energy supply volatility, and responds to concerns about potential financial risks, providing both immediate policy context and a longer-term economic outlook.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Jobs Report: Disappointing Headline, But Explanations Underneath

• Context: Recent labor market data showed a surprising dip, with the 3-month jobs addition averaging only 6,000.
• Factors At Play:
  • Weather: "First of all, we had the crazy weather in February... there was a lot of lingering junk, as you might recall, with the ice that was everywhere." — Kevin Hassett [01:00]
  • Strikes: "We had some strikes on the west coast that knocked off between 30 and 40,000 jobs." — Kevin Hassett [01:09]
  • Statistical Volatility: Hassett explains the new BLS "birth-death model" may cause bumpier numbers, urging listeners to focus on multi-month averages.
  • Net Assessment: "If you average the two then it's about at the rate of job growth that's consistent with 3 or 4% GDP growth." — Kevin Hassett [01:28]
• Forward-Looking View:
  • "Every other indicator is consistent with very strong GDP growth right now. And so this really is an outlier number." — Kevin Hassett [01:54]

2. Oil Price Pressures Amid Middle East Disruptions

• Disruption Sources: Ongoing instability in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks have spiked energy prices.
• Hassett’s Big Picture:
  • "We know that sometime soon we're going to have a much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a much more stable Iran with high and stable energy output..." — Kevin Hassett [02:41]
  • On Iran: "Don't forget that this move against Iran is happening because they've promised to destroy us all. Like if that's not something that affects risk premium, I don't know what is." — Kevin Hassett [02:54]
• Outlook: Hassett is optimistic about medium-term resolution, suggesting supply normalization will bring relief to both energy markets and global risk sentiment.

3. Policy Responses to Oil Disruption

• Sanction Waivers and Policy Tools:
  • On the recent waiver for India to buy Russian oil: "The sanction waiver that Secretary Bessant came out with is just one of many, many tools that we have ready. We've got a whole flowchart of tools..." — Kevin Hassett [04:12]
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR):
  • "There is no conversation right now to dip into [the SPR], but we've got something like 400 million barrels ready to go if needed." — Kevin Hassett [04:47]
  • "Our expectation is that this effort in Iran is way ahead of schedule." — Kevin Hassett [04:58]
• Naval Escorts & Insurance for Tankers:
  • The president’s two-fold plan: military escorts and securing insurance to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. "Those things are all on the table. And I think that markets will move forward quickly once it's clear that the military, US Military, has resolved those matters." — Kevin Hassett [06:34]

4. Financial Market Stress: Is There Systemic Risk?

• Private Credit Concerns:
  • The host notes “headline[s] about redemptions and certain firms trying to meet redemptions in different ways,” fueling market jitters.
• Hassett’s Assessment:
  • "Right now we see a very well functioning market that's under a tiny little bit of stress. But for the most part, you know, outside of the one firm that had the significant issue, it looks like everybody's in good shape..." — Kevin Hassett [07:19]
• Systemic Risk?
  • On comparisons to 2008: "We're seeing nothing like that kind of activity." — Kevin Hassett [07:53]
  • "I believe that there's so much security in that space that they can handle the stress that we're observing right now." — Kevin Hassett [08:41]

5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Don’t forget that this move against Iran is happening because they’ve promised to destroy us all.” — Kevin Hassett [02:54] (reveals the geopolitical undertones in policy decisions)
• "Every other indicator is consistent with very strong GDP growth right now. And so this really is an outlier number." — Kevin Hassett [01:54]
• "The sanction waiver that Secretary Bessant came out with is just one of many, many tools..." — Kevin Hassett [04:12]
• "Whether it’s dumb or not, exactly ex post it looks dumb.” – Kevin Hassett [08:26] (on risky moves in private credit)

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Important Timestamps

• Jobs Report Breakdown: [01:00–01:44]
• Reassurance on Labor Market Trends: [01:54–02:23]
• Energy Market Discussion – Middle East, Iran, Venezuela: [02:41–03:36]
• US Policy Toolbox for Oil Disruption: [04:12–04:47]
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve & Future Plans: [04:47–05:17]
• Naval Escorts/Insurance for Oil Tankers: [05:54–06:34]
• Private Market Stress—Systemic Risk Discussion: [07:19–08:41]

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Tone Highlight

• The entire dialogue maintains a calm yet urgent tone—Hassett projects reassurance while acknowledging volatility and risk, consistently emphasizing optimism for medium- and long-term US economic prospects.
• The host pushes for clarity on timelines and real-time remedies, reflecting market anxieties especially around oil and financial markets.

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Summary

This episode provides a concise but insightful snapshot of late-winter 2026 economic anxiety and governmental response. Hassett offers explanations for unexpected labor market fluctuations, contextualizes oil price shocks as temporary yet geopolitically charged, and assures listeners that despite pockets of financial worry, systemic risk remains well-contained. The administration stands ready with various tools to manage both energy disruption and financial market stress, but is keen to project "eyes on the horizon" confidence, even as short-term challenges are acknowledged.

Listeners come away understanding the nuance behind the headlines: volatility is real, but catastrophic risk is not currently seen as imminent.

Transcript

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[Bloomberg Host]

say that joining us now following the jobs report is the National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett. Kevin, you're a good man. Thanks for making time for us this morning. It's an obvious downside surprise on a jobs report. The 3 month average has dropped to 6k. I think some people looking at this report at the headline level might be a bit nervous about what's inside it. Are some one offs here that make this look worse than maybe it is?

[Kevin Hassett]

Yeah, there are a few. First of all, we had the crazy weather in February. The worst of it was actually outside of the survey week. But there was a lot of lingering junk, as you might recall, with the ice that was everywhere. We had some strikes on the west coast that knocked off between 30 and 40,000 jobs. And so I think that on net it's almost like a wash number. And the final thing is that there is a new procedure, birth death model at the bls, which we believe is going to make the number more volatile. And so I think more and more we're going to have to average through the months. And remember we had a really surprisingly positive number last month. And I think if you average the two then it's about at the rate of job growth that's consistent with 3 or 4% GDP growth.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin, it goes against the grain as well. I said data early this week was really pretty decent. Claims were stable too. Next time we speak next month, do you expect to have a better story to tell?

[Kevin Hassett]

Yeah, yeah. I think that right now what's going to happen, right, is that the, the variability and the data will be apparent to folks. And so what's going to happen I think is that there'll be some anxiety that another number like this or two or three numbers like this is ahead for us. But we really don't believe that because as you and I have discussed, like every other indicator is consistent with very strong GDP growth right now. And so this really is an outlier number.

[Bloomberg Host]

Tax refunds are a big part of the bull case for the US Economy. I've got the Bloomberg lighting up in front of me right now. With energy prices surging, how those refunds are going to be spent is key. Kevin, with energy bills still climbing, what's your assessment of the disruption we're seeing to supply in the Middle East?

[Kevin Hassett]

Well, our expectation is that we've got our eyes on the horizon, that we know that sometime soon we're going to have a much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a much more stable Iran with high and stable energy output, which is going to be very good not only for energy markets but for risk premia around the world. Don't forget that this move against Iran is happening because they've promised to destroy us all. Like if that's not something that affects risk premium, I don't know what is. And so I think with an eye on the horizon, then you can see that this is a huge positive for global, the global economy and global markets. The question is, you know, when will the current near term disruption end? And that's something that will be decided by the military and they'll of course will be some uncertainty about when they decide to move in part because the uncertainty protects the lives of American soldiers, Kevin, in the meantime. But we expect that it'll be resolved yields quite soon.

[Bloomberg Host]

As you see, we're starting to see a hit to production because we can't move the oil. We're breaching storage capacity in select producers right now. You saw some of that with Iraq earlier this week, the Journal reporting moments ago. We're seeing the same thing in Kuwait and UAE and Saudi Arabia might follow. That's obviously a bigger, more acute issue for the Asian refiners right now, which is why the treasury secretary came out and issued a waiver for the Indians to buy from Russia the Russian crude that's offshore in tankers right now. But Kevin, I wonder what else the White House has got in store. Not just to tell people to wait because in the future will be better, but what are the remedies that you could produce right now?

[Kevin Hassett]

Oh sure, you know, the, the sanction waiver that Secretary Bessant came out with is just one of many, many tools that we have ready. We've got a whole flowchart of tools to use depending on this or that. And we're ready to move them as soon as we have to. But we're optimistic that we're going to be able to get this near term problem resolved relatively quickly.

[Bloomberg Host]

The Biden administration, as you know, burnt through the spro Took it down quite dramatically. Is there space left in the spro to deploy some of that to bring down prices just a bit for consumers?

[Kevin Hassett]

You know, there is no conversation right now to dip into that, but we've got something like 400 million barrels ready to go if needed. But there is I re emphasize that there has not been a conversation to dip into that yet because our expectation is that this effort in Iran is way ahead of schedule and that we understand that there are near term market fluctuations. But we have our eyes on the horizon and we think that's where people should be looking to.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin, you say ahead of schedule. Is there a schedule?

[Kevin Hassett]

Yes, but obviously we're not going to go through the schedule on tv.

[Bloomberg Host]

The timing of this is so important to people though. They need to understand the duration, to understand how acute the problem will be. It feels very open ended. It feels different to what we saw in Caracas. Tehran is not Caracas. Iran, as you know, it's not Venezuela. Can you assure people this won't be something that goes on for months. This is something that will go on for weeks.

[Kevin Hassett]

There's nobody that expects that we're going to have a disruption that people is anything like what the bears right now fear.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin, the president's also said there'll be naval escorts as well to help tankers get through the Strait of Hormuz. As we understand tracking the traffic here at Bloomberg, that's grounded to a effective halt as of this morning. What can we do to help those tankers get through that strait and how quickly can we do it?

[Kevin Hassett]

You know, this is a matter that is being studied very closely by the military and discussed constantly. And I expect a heck of a lot of progress was made in coming up with a plan that can do exactly what the President has suggested.

[Bloomberg Host]

There were two dimensions to the president suggested one with the naval escorts and the second piece was insurance. How long do you think it would take to put together something more comprehensive to give people the certainty that these things are insurable?

[Kevin Hassett]

Well, I think it's really the insurance and the naval effort and the destruction of the Iranian assault capability, those things are all on the table. And I think that markets will move forward quickly once it's clear that the military, US Military, has resolved those matters.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin, there's another aspect to the price action that's making some people nervous. I'd love your thoughts on it. It's not just that it's disruption that we're seeing in the Middle east and the disruption to energy supply. There's also issues in private credit Every day there is a headline about redemptions and certain firms trying to meet redemptions in different ways. We've talked a lot about financial conditions, but a financial conditions tightening in a way that we can't see in private markets. And how are you tracking things?

[Kevin Hassett]

We're tracking it very closely. We're keeping an eye on things that are liquid, things that are illiquid and so on. And right now we see a very well functioning market that's under a tiny little bit of stress. But for the most part, you know, outside of the one firm that had the significant issue, it looks like everybody's in good shape, but we're following it very closely.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin, how do you track those things? You in touch with the big, big firms right now about what they're doing there? Certain blow ups that are making you more concerned than other things. How do you track these?

[Kevin Hassett]

There are behaviors, there are behaviors that make you concerned. Like when you see a radical amount of shorting of assets of firms are starting to feel some distress and so on. And we're seeing, and that's something that we really haven't seen since the financial crisis in 2008 and we're seeing nothing like that kind of activity.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin Lloyd Blank finds someone we both respect said he sees echoes of what happened in the financial crisis. Jamie diamond of JP Morgan has said some people have done some dumb things. Mark Run of Apollo has said something similar. Do you think people have done some dumb things that are going to come to the surface?

[Kevin Hassett]

Like people have made some bets that didn't pay off but that's kind of what happens in financial markets, right? So whether it's dumb or not exactly ex post it looks dumb.

[Bloomberg Host]

Does it pose a risk to all of us?

[Kevin Hassett]

Excuse me?

[Bloomberg Host]

Does it pose a risk to all of us? Is there a systemic.

[Kevin Hassett]

No, I believe that there's so much security in that space that they can handle the stress that we're observing right now.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kevin Hassett, thanks for the update. We appreciate it. Thank you, thank you very much. The National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett

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