Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks

Episode: Dr. Adam Posen Talks U.S.-Saudi Relationship
Date: November 18, 2025
Host: Carol Massar (Bloomberg)
Guest: Dr. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics

Overview

This episode features a deep dive into the evolving U.S.-Saudi relationship—with a special focus on economic ties, security arrangements, political optics, and the interplay between global and domestic policy priorities. Dr. Adam Posen offers candid insights into where this partnership stands, its real strategic value, and the consequences of blurred lines between business interests and government actions at the top levels of U.S. leadership.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Economic and Strategic Significance of U.S.-Saudi Relations

Timestamps: 00:58–02:58

• Saudi’s Push for Economic Diversification:
  Dr. Posen notes that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is shifting the kingdom away from oil dependency, seeking credible integration with the U.S. to support domestic liberalization and economic reform.

  "Mbs, the crown prince, has very definitely been seeing part of his agenda to try to transition Saudi away from over dependence on export of fossil fuels. And it's the right thing for them to do from the economic perspective." (01:08, Dr. Adam Posen)

• U.S. Perspective Is Primarily Security-Focused:
  The U.S. does not derive outsized economic benefit from Saudi investment, unlike what some believe. The value is more in the security alliance, necessitating conditionality for tech and weapons transfers.

  "For the US, I think there has to be more of the security diplomatic conditionality. Just simply getting Saudi investment in the US is not that big a gain." (02:43, Dr. Adam Posen)

2. Conditionality for Strategic Deals and the Big “Carrots”

Timestamps: 02:58–03:55

• What ‘Conditionality’ Should Look Like:
  Arms deals (such as F-35 sales) should only go forward if Saudi Arabia makes significant concessions—be it recognition of Israel, influencing Pakistan constructively, or contributing to rebuilding efforts in Gaza.

  “I would not say it necessarily needs to be tied to Israel recognition in the Abraham Accords, but it needs to be tied to something of that caliber... it has to be something substantial.” (03:07, Dr. Adam Posen)

• Seeing the Relationship as a Whole:
  These agreements are about more than one-off exchanges; they should reflect long-term partnership values with security commitments at their core.

3. Mixing Public Office and Private Business: The Optics and Dangers

Timestamps: 03:55–06:32

• Concerns over Trump Organization’s Deals:
  Carol Massar raises the issue of the Trump Organization’s ongoing business ties with Saudi partners, specifically projects like the Maldives resort, and the implications for national interest.

• Erosion of U.S. Governance Norms:
  Dr. Posen emphasizes that, regardless of denial or legal technicalities, even the perception of personal enrichment from high office corrodes established American norms.

  "We had laws and more importantly we had norms and we had expectations from the press, from the public, from the markets that the US did not deal in family enrichment." (04:43, Dr. Adam Posen)

• Historical Context and the Global Perspective:
  While such behaviors are more common elsewhere, American exceptionalism in this arena has helped underpin the nation’s global leadership and credibility.

  "We've, we've not seen anything like this, at least since Teddy Roosevelt, meaning 120 years." (05:38, Dr. Adam Posen)

4. The Importance of Scrutiny and Guardrails

Timestamps: 06:32–08:25

• Systemic Safeguards Required:
  Dr. Posen acknowledges that every administration faces these issues to some degree, but stresses the necessity for systemic scrutiny and strong rules to prevent political and economic decision-making from being driven by private interests.

  "You want to have a system in place where people expect and feel... that this is an exception, not the rule..." (06:47, Dr. Adam Posen)

• Transparency Alone Is Not Enough:
  Merely being open about conflicts does not resolve or legitimize them.

  “Transparency doesn’t necessarily negate actions. Right?” (08:20, Carol Massar)
  “Yeah. Well said.” (08:25, Dr. Adam Posen)

5. Potential Long-Term Economic Consequences of Blurred Norms

Timestamps: 08:27–10:16

• The U.S. Example Matters Globally:
  Dr. Posen warns that if the U.S.—the anchor of the rules-based world order—starts tolerating or encouraging such conflicts, other countries will follow, undermining frameworks that maintain fairness and stability.

  "It means that the US is setting an example that you can get away with that and other people should get away with it. And it breaks down the regimes and the operating principles we have to deter these things." (09:12, Dr. Adam Posen)

• Concrete Harms:
  These shifts can lead to reduced investment, diminished business opportunity, wasted public funds, greater global instability and inflationary pressures, ultimately hurting everyday people.

6. Domestic Priorities versus Global Engagement

Timestamps: 10:16–13:15

• False Dichotomy Between Global and Domestic Focus:
  Posen reiterates that global engagement, when wisely conducted, ultimately supports domestic well-being.

  "If you set up a rest of the world that feels safer and less corrupt and more stable and less subject to disease and refugee flows and wars, that’s ultimately to the benefit of the average American." (11:09, Dr. Adam Posen)

• Warning on Current Domestic Trends:
  He expresses deep concerns about cutbacks to healthcare subsidies, restrictive migration policy, pressures on working women, and anti-market regulations—saying these hurt U.S. economic and human welfare.

  “The removal of health care support subsidies and access to Medicaid and to all these Obamacare related things is going to materially affect the health and well being of millions of human beings in the U.S. and that is bad economically, but it’s bad in human terms.” (11:42, Dr. Adam Posen)
  “The combination of anti migration policy, attacks on the Fed, tariffs, deal making, some of which looks corrupt, all adds to a more inflationary environment which reduces real incomes for people.” (12:46, Dr. Adam Posen)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Saudi Diversification:
  “They have, and I know a lot of very serious money investors who are very excited by this. But just to say this puts them on the path." (01:41, Dr. Adam Posen)

• On U.S. Norms vs. Global Reality:
  “There are a lot of countries in the world, including Saudi, including Turkey, including China, where this kind of ties go on between the leaders, families and chosen friends and foreign policy and other governments. It’s not good, it’s not fair, it’s wasteful and distortionary, but it’s also not the end of the world.” (05:07, Dr. Adam Posen)

• On Systems and Safeguards:
  “You want to have a system of scrutiny and rules and presumptions that discourages our elected officials from being so overt about it.” (07:40, Dr. Adam Posen)

• On Domestic Policy Concerns:
  “It’s not about choosing the global versus domestic, it’s about choosing the self-interested versus the public welfare.” (13:11, Dr. Adam Posen)

Key Segment Timestamps

• 00:58–02:58: U.S.-Saudi economic and security priorities
• 03:04–03:55: The importance of conditionality in U.S.-Saudi deals
• 03:55–06:32: Trump Organization business ties, perceptions, and American norms
• 06:32–08:25: The necessity of systemic scrutiny and true accountability
• 08:27–10:16: Global consequences of weakened governance standards
• 10:16–13:15: Weighing global versus domestic priorities in U.S. policy

Tone and Style

• Dr. Posen is candid, historically informed, and measured, balancing warnings about real dangers with acknowledgment of global realities.
• Carol Massar’s questions push for clarity and moral relevance, probing both the perceived and practical consequences of these blurred lines.

Final Thought

Dr. Posen’s central thesis: The evolving U.S.-Saudi relationship should be assessed for its strategic, not just economic, value and managed with scrupulous transparency and conditionality. America’s domestic policies and global example remain tied to its core credibility—and when that credibility erodes, so do both American prosperity and global stability.