Overview

In this episode of Bloomberg Talks, Eli Lilly’s CFO Lucas Montarce joins to discuss the company’s ambitious growth outlook for 2026, the rollout and approval status of its highly anticipated oral weight loss medication (orphoglipron), the impact of pricing pressures, expanded Medicare access for anti-obesity drugs, and recent product approvals. The conversation is wide-ranging, offering insights into how Eli Lilly is managing market expectations, regulatory timelines, and competitive forces in the booming market for obesity and diabetes treatments.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Industry-Leading Growth & 2026 Outlook

• Projected Growth: Lilly is forecasting a 25% revenue increase for 2026—a rate described as “industry leading.”
• Momentum: Q4 2025 saw 43% revenue growth, reflecting continued momentum as key products drive expansion.
• Major Drivers: Growth is attributed not just to incretin-based therapies (notably in obesity and type 2 diabetes) but also a diverse product pipeline.

“25% is the midpoint of the growth that we expect to see in 2026—it’s industry leading growth and that’s a continuation of the momentum that we see as well in 2025.”
— Lucas Montarce (00:08)

2. Orphoglipron (Oral Weight Loss Pill): Approval Timeline & Market Opportunity

• Regulatory Status: Orphoglipron was submitted for approval in Q4; action from the FDA is expected as early as Q2 2026, pending regulatory review.
• Market Impact: The oral pill is anticipated to greatly expand access and patient uptake, particularly among populations not served by injectables.
• Investor Interest: While investors are laser-focused on orphoglipron’s potential, Lilly’s current outlook does not factor in unproven upside from the product.

“We submitted for regulatory approval in the fourth quarter and we expect to have regulatory action as early as Q2...a very exciting opportunity to expand the market.”
— Lucas Montarce (00:45)

3. Pricing Pressures & Strategy

• Industry Context: Both Lilly and competitor Novo Nordisk are facing significant pricing declines (low to mid teens) due to competition, payer negotiations, and expanded access.
• Proactive Strategy: Lilly has already incorporated anticipated price erosion into its 2026 forecast. Key pricing moves include a $50 reduction direct-to-patient, and agreed Medicare pricing at $245.
• Offset by Volume: While prices are declining, volume growth—especially in anti-obesity drugs and type 2 diabetes—more than offsets reductions.

“There is no news from my perspective in terms of the pricing dynamics—it’s still going to be price erosion versus last year, that’s included in our guide. Very strong volume growth that we expect to see that will more than offset that to get to that 25%.”
— Lucas Montarce (03:53)

4. Market Expansion: Obesity & Diabetes

• Market Size: Over 100 million patients in the U.S. and 900 million globally could benefit from anti-obesity medicines; current penetration remains in the low single digits.
• Runway for Growth: Q4 U.S. anti-obesity market grew by 85%, but opportunity for further expansion is vast.

“We are talking about more than 100 million patients in the US that we can serve… nowadays we are serving low single digits, so the penetration is low. There is a big opportunity to continue to drive that growth.”
— Lucas Montarce (05:23)

5. Medicare Access & Implications

• Expanded Access by July 2026: With a new agreement, over 40 million Medicare patients could gain access to anti-obesity medications, including orphoglipron and tirzepatide, starting mid-2026.
• Cost to Patients: The standard copay for Medicare patients will be $50 per prescription, broadening affordability and access.

“Once that access is provided… both molecules will have access to Medicare patients and the patients will pay actually $50 will be the co pay… starting off July, hopefully we will see that penetration growing over time.”
— Lucas Montarce (07:21)

6. Quick Pen Approval & Rollout

• Product Launch: The Quick Pen injector recently received approval and is set for broad market launch within 30 days—a move timed with expanded Medicare and direct-to-patient access.
• Channel Expansion: Quick Pen will be available to both Medicare and non-Medicare patients, with emphasis on providing multiple delivery options for various markets.

“We are planning to bring it to the market within the next 30 days… we will bring it in direct to patients so that we will have more broad access—it’s another opportunity, another option for patients.”
— Lucas Montarce (08:25)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is no single pharma company growing at this pace. So we feel good.”
  — Lucas Montarce (02:16)

• “We have been very disciplined on our pricing strategy… and my commitment is to maintain that price discipline getting into 2026 as well.”
  — Lucas Montarce (06:21)

• “We will bring it in direct to patients so that we will have more broad access.”
  — Lucas Montarce (08:25)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:08 – Lucas outlines Eli Lilly’s 2026 revenue guidance and growth drivers
• 00:45 – Discussion of orphoglipron oral pill and regulatory approval timeline
• 02:16 – Outlook on financial guidance and potential upside from new launches
• 03:09 – Update on FDA process and expectations
• 03:53 – Discussion of pricing pressures, Medicare pricing, and strategy
• 05:23 – Market size for obesity and type 2 diabetes; volume opportunity
• 06:21 – Further detail on pricing discipline and Medicare access
• 07:21 – Impact and logistics of expanded Medicare access for anti-obesity medicines
• 08:25 – Approval and launch plans for Quick Pen device

Summary Flow & Tone

The conversation was direct, data-driven, and optimistic about near-term growth, with Montarce reiterating confidence in Eli Lilly’s ability to sustain strong performance even in the face of pricing challenges. The interview balanced investor concerns (pricing, access, regulatory hurdles) with bullish commentary on Lilly’s pipeline and disciplined execution.

For listeners seeking a concise but comprehensive look at the state of Eli Lilly’s anti-obesity franchise, business strategy, and market prospects, this episode provides key details and forward-looking insights.