Interviewer 2 (2:53)

That level of disengagement, Ian, do you think that is reflective of this Republican Party?

Ian Bremmer (2:59)

When you say disengagement, I'm sorry, what do you mean by that?

Interviewer 2 (3:01)

No, just the America first type of feeling within the Trump administration.

Ian Bremmer (3:09)

I think the Republican Party is completely loyal to Trump and it doesn't really matter if a lot of them feel differently about his doing a deal with China on the H20 chips or coming to terms on TikTok. It doesn't really matter if he says Ukraine's not that important because it's an ocean away. Of course, a lot of Republicans historically disagree with that. They disagree with Trump opposing free trade, but the population has changed. So first of all, there are a lot of people that really oppose a lot of neocons in the Republican Party that led to very expensive, very deadly failed wars. And there are a lot of traditional free trade Republicans that no longer have the support of the population in pushing for globalization and for taking tariffs down. We're in a radically different environment, Right? We have tariffs at 100 level, historic highs, 100 year highs. And we also have a president that's doing his damnedest to reduce American security guarantees and commitments to other countries around the world, even, you know, making big questions about whether the US Would stand up for Taiwan, for example, long term. So, I mean, clearly a lot of Republicans quietly aren't comfortable with that.

Podcast Host (4:34)

There's so many ways to go here. Ian Bremmer with us for an extended conversation with Eurasia Group. Ian, what people want to know when's the next book out? Give me a date.

Ian Bremmer (4:42)

Sometime next year.

Podcast Host (4:43)

Sometime next year. Like that's good enough. Ian, I want to talk about Gaza. I want you to triangulate it with Qatar, the president's relationship there, maybe with this desire to win a peace prize and all that. How should our listeners and viewers synthesize the cacophony of Gaza? I'm looking at a video in the Washington Post this morning. Greta Thunberg and others being the Israelis have taken over flotilla, whatever. How does Ian Bremmer translate the horror of Gaza through the American prism?

Ian Bremmer (5:16)

The two combatants have very little consequence for continuing to engage in the fight. It's been extremely hard to convince Israel that they should limit the warfare on the ground in Gaza or against the axis of resistance more broadly because there have been no consequences for them doing so. And of course, because they're militarily and technologically dominant in the entire region. It's been extremely difficult to convince Hamas that they have to actually let the hostages go. Which was Trump's only applause line in his 55 minute speech at the United Nations General assembly last week. Because they're terrorists, because they're a bunch of dead enders, and because they recognize that they face assassination kind of either way. And look, it's hard to put yourself in the position of what would create rationality among leadership of Hamas, but they're putting their own people at risk every day, and they have for years now. So in that regard, it's hard to maneuver much, though I think that there has been success in putting a few small constraints on Israeli behavior. Trump had been indifferent to Israeli annexation of the west bank, and he came out last week and said that they will not do that on the back of the uae, saying that they would leave the Abraham Accords if the Israelis proceeded. Trump had been actively promoting the idea of removing Palestinians from Gaza. In fact, he said as much when he was on stage with the King of Jordan a few months ago. And he's now shifted away from that to a plan that has been approved by the Gulf Arabs and by the Israeli Prime Minister that says that the Palestinians aren't going to be forced to leave, that rather they're going to be able to stay in Gaza. And so, I mean, look, it's not stopping the war. And as long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages, I don't expect the war to end, even though I think it would be much better for Israel and everyone else involved if they would stop. But. But I do think that we have a few guardrails, however limited, today that we didn't have a week ago.

Interviewer 2 (7:44)

Ian, let's switch gears to another hotspot, which would be Ukraine. Is there any reason to believe that there is some type of peace process possible in the near to intermediate term here?

Ian Bremmer (8:00)

I would say it's more likely that the completely stalled offensive that Russia has had, it's been, you know, this grinding, virtually no territory being taken, massive casualties, particularly in terms of the Russian soldiers. Over a million casualties in this war for Russia so far in three and a half years. It's a staggering number. It's hard to even imagine what that means for society. But Putin doesn't care. It's hard to imagine that that's going to continue the way it has for the next six to 12 months, in part because it's going to be very difficult for Ukraine to continue to defend their territory and field the soldiers to do so over the coming year, but also in part because Trump is angry about this. He thought that he was going to leverage his relationship with Putin, however, it existed into a ceasefire. He made Putin a lot of offers, ending sanctions and the like. And Putin said, no, thank you, and has embarrassed Trump, has angered Trump and Trump. Trump is bringing it up. He never brings up his failures. He forgets about them. It's one of his political skills. Not on Russia. And instead he's talking about providing extended range missiles to Ukraine that could take out Russian energy capability. And he's privately pushing the Hungarians, the Turks, the Indians, saying, you know, I want you to, to end your purchasing of Russian oil. He wasn't willing to do that a month ago. So there is real movement here from, from President Trump himself to try to not just offer Putin a carrot, ineffectually.

Podcast Host (9:42)

Right.

Ian Bremmer (9:42)

But also include some stick.

Podcast Host (9:44)

Dr. Bremmer, let's finish up with this. We had a riveting conversation with Admiral Mullen at the Bloomberg Global Forum the other day. He was just on the South China Sea. Extraordinary. The submarine secrets there, the Hainan, the island off China. I think Americans, Ian, are ignorant that Taiwan isn't one monolithic island. Explain to us the strategic realities for Americans of Kinmen and Matsu Islands just off the coast of China. What are the immediate risks to those frontline islands in Taiwan?

Ian Bremmer (10:21)

Well, of course, China's ability, if they wanted to engage in warfare with less consequence, taking those over or blockading those, much easier. Right. And with very little ability for the Americans to respond or its Asian allies to respond militarily. But nobody really believes near term that's gonna happen, in part because the United States is oriented to work with China on Taiwan. Look, Trump and Xi Jinping had a phone call much anticip last Friday. And the single thing that Trump most wanted, which he got, was a nod from Xi jinping on the US taking over TikTok with political loyalists installed in charge of it. And that's the thing that matters most to Trump. It allows him to undermine the free media, control the information space, and better ensure that he and his advisers can control 2026 and 2028. What the Chinese want is for Trump to back away and say that they oppose independence for Taiwan, as Bush had, President Bush had once before. And I think that Trump is oriented to provide that, frankly. So we're not heading towards escalation right now with the Chinese. We're actually heading towards both sides getting something that really matters to the individual leaders you mentioned.

Podcast Host (11:53)

It was one final question. I got a ways to go here, folks, with Ian Bremmer, always the case. You mentioned the collapse of U.S. aid, U.S. aid. I've got family members abroad that say it's been devastating for Africa. Explain right now, at the beginning of this fourth quarter, the impact of the lack of U.S. aid.

Ian Bremmer (12:17)

The United States is the most powerful country in the world. It's the, it's the strongest economy by far. And the US has historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid to other countries and to the people in those countries that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're vulnerable to hiv, aids, whether they're starving, whether they're facing forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support for the United nations and the organizations that it stands up, like the World Food Program, for example. The United States has decided that those things should no longer be priorities, that America first means that these other countries should have to make their own way. They should have to pay for themselves. Now, the Chinese see this as a great opportunity in the same way that when the Americans cut back on visas, the Chinese immediately say, we're going to make it easier for talented people to come. They won't be as attractive in terms of their aid. But if they are the lead power, I mean, they, they made up their, their dues, many of which were in arrears at the un The Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay, we'll pay some of ours now so that they can put forward that they're the ones that are more accountable. Look, if you think that only American hard power matters, and maybe in the short term that's true, then. And you don't care very much about non Americans and don't think that they are as deserving or that we should take care of any of them. We don't have accountability, then it doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and I think it's a mistake long term.

Podcast Host (13:56)

Ian, thank you so much. Dr. Bremer with Eurasia Group, and we thank him for his years of support of what we do at Surveillance.

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