Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer Talks Iran War, Strait of Hormuz

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks: Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer Talks Iran War, Strait of Hormuz (May 4, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this timely episode of Bloomberg Talks, the Bloomberg team sits down with Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, to discuss the mounting tensions in the Middle East, specifically focusing on the Iran war, the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and how these events affect global politics and energy markets. Recorded at the Milken Conference, this conversation presents a sharp analysis of the multi-faceted conflict landscape, the players involved, and the complex endgames and pitfalls that lie ahead.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Current Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

• Escalation: Iran targets UAE with missiles; Tehran signals tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz ([00:20]).
• Operation Freedom: President Trump announces a new operation to help escort vessels, but the US is not actively escorting ships yet ([00:38]).
• US Challenges: The US lacks the capacity to protect commercial traffic effectively in the current environment ([01:14]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “As of right now, he [President Trump] does not. And that is a big part of the problem... This is by far the biggest challenge we've seen since the cease fire was announced by President Trump a couple of weeks ago.” ([01:14])
• Iran’s Leverage: Iran is using its control of the Strait as leverage; willing to end blockade only if its demands are met ([01:14]-[02:27]).

Strategic Advantages & Limitations

• Iran’s Desperation and Resolve:
  • Iran’s leadership has suffered heavy losses, but the regime remains steadfast.
  • Massive Iranian casualties and displacement, yet leadership remains unchanged.
  • Ian Bremmer: “To say they've got the winning hand... they're desperate, but... their regime is not going to change.” ([02:38])
• US Disadvantages in Intelligence:
  • Loss of Iranian contacts makes intelligence-gathering difficult for the US ([03:41]).
  • Decision-making in Iran is opaque; US lacks visibility into who is actually making decisions in Tehran.
  • Ian Bremmer: "The people calling the shots are not on television. They're not engaged publicly because they don't want to get killed.” ([03:42])

Nuclear Deal Hopes & Missed Opportunities

• Pivotal Negotiations: Optimism once existed when discussions centered on the duration of Iran pausing enrichment, but that has faded ([04:39]).
  • Bloomberg Interviewer: "The markets were lit up with optimism... that we can somehow get to a yes..." ([04:39])
  • Ian Bremmer: “It was real... There was serious engagement... Not only the duration of enrichment... but also the removal of the uranium stock.” ([05:00])
• Stalled Progress:
  • US dropped ballistic missile and proxy issues to focus on core nuclear points.
  • Real deal fell apart over opening the strait and what Iran would receive in return.
  • Ian Bremmer: “Ultimately, the Iranians have very little reason to open the strait, which is their... singular point of global leverage...” ([05:18])

No Short-term Endgame in Sight

• Market Expectations: Oil and broader markets anticipate long-lasting disruptions; no quick resolution is expected ([06:00]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “Trump seems to believe that he's already going to lose midterms... willing to go longer and take that pain. Secondly, the Iranians... are capable of continuing to hunker down.” ([06:23])
• Logistical Realities: Even if a deal is reached, implementation and normalization of oil flow would take months, if not years ([07:23]).
  • Bloomberg Interviewer: “It would be at least two months from the strait being opened.” ([07:23])
  • Bloomberg Host: “If you look at Qatar, we're talking like three to five years.” ([07:32])

US Strategy and Leadership Gaps

• Overconfidence & Communication Breakdown: The Pentagon underestimated the resilience of Iranian command, assuming leadership decapitation would lead to collapse ([07:36]-[08:04]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “When you believe that this is going to go over because you're killing the leadership... you don't need that plan. The biggest problem... is that President Trump... is not getting an accurate picture of what's happening on the ground.” ([07:52])
  • Advisors and foreign leaders are sugarcoating updates, as Trump "won't tolerate criticism”—leading to lack of clear-eyed policy ([08:04]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “No one would run a company that way.... That's the way the United States government is presently being run in a war environment.” ([08:04])

Regional Shifts & Fragmentation

• Gulf Fractures: The UAE’s departure from OPEC signals emerging divisions in the Gulf ([09:24]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “The Emiratis and the Saudis are in much more open hostility. Right? ...The UAE decided to leave OPEC in the middle of wartime.” ([09:24])
  • UAE supports Israel more overtly, while Saudis pivot toward regional stability and hedging with Pakistan and China ([09:42]).
• Middle East Post-war Outlook: The conflict is reshaping alliances and regional strategies; multilateralism is breaking down ([10:35]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “It's less stable... there will not be a singular Gulf strategy. You will need to understand how you are engaged with these different leaders...” ([10:36])

China’s Role and the US-China Dynamic

• No Breakthrough from Xi-Trump Meeting: Trump may be hoping for a “break glass” moment via summitry with Xi Jinping, but China is not positioned or incentivized to resolve the Strait of Hormuz crisis ([11:21]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “The fact that China is willing to hit back like that right before a summit with Trump shows that... they're not really under pressure to resolve anything.” ([11:44])
• Geopolitical Gamesmanship: Ongoing tit-for-tat sanctions with Chinese companies; China leverages the moment to advance its own interests, possibly seeking concessions on issues like Taiwan ([11:44]).

Public Perceptions, Frustration, and Analysis

• Trump’s Frustration: He wants an "off ramp" but is boxed in, unable to deflect blame ([13:06]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “He wants an off ramp. He'd like to blame someone. It is his fault and he can't do anything about it. That's an unusual situation for him.” ([13:06])
• Who Does Iran Want as a Partner?
  • Host mentions an Iranian's perspective: Iran would rather be friendly with the US than align with China or Russia ([13:14]).
  • Ian Bremmer: “The Islamic Republic? No, of course not.” ([13:32])
• Challenges in Media & Analysis: Bremmer calls out Western media and so-called Iran experts for wishful thinking and bias, emphasizing realism over “what I want” from a policy perspective ([13:32]).

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Notable Quotes

• On Iran’s Leverage:
  Ian Bremmer ([01:14]): “The Iranian perspective is we are prepared to talk about ending the blockade if you're going to let our ships through. Otherwise it's not happening. And the Iranians have the ability and the willingness to prevent Trump from making these moves.”

• On Intelligence Shortfalls:
  Ian Bremmer ([03:42]): "The people calling the shots are not on television. They're not engaged publicly because they don't want to get killed."

• On the Region’s Evolution:
  Ian Bremmer ([10:36]): “It's less stable. It certainly is more aligned with the individual interests of those countries. But you lack the multilateralism. The Gulf Cooperation Council is no longer fit for purpose. It could easily fall apart.”

• On China’s Calculations:
  Ian Bremmer ([11:44]): “China is willing to hit back like that right before a summit with Trump... they know that the Americans are not going to take moves against them... If you're waiting for a Xi Jinping summit to be a breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah, they want none of that.”

• On Trump’s Situation:
  Ian Bremmer ([13:06]): “He wants an off ramp. He'd like to blame someone. It is his fault and he can't do anything about it. That's an unusual situation for him.”

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Timeline of Important Segments

• [00:20-01:14]: Introduction, present crisis, “Operation Freedom” overview
• [01:14-02:27]: Iran’s leverage, US limitations, escalation in the strait
• [03:41]: Challenges in US intelligence gathering on Iran
• [04:39-05:18]: Discussion of derailed nuclear deal and regional negotiations
• [06:00-07:32]: No quick endgame; oil market adaptation; regional disruptions
• [07:36-08:59]: Failures of US strategy, breakdown in leadership communication
• [09:24-10:36]: New Gulf fault lines; regional fragmentation post-war
• [11:21-12:49]: China’s geopolitical role; no expectation of breakthrough via US-China summit
• [13:06-13:32]: Trump’s frustration and Iran’s potential partners
• [13:32-14:24]: Media analysis, the importance of realism over wishful thinking

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Summary & Takeaways

• The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has no imminent resolution due to deep strategic rifts, Iran’s effective use of leverage, and lack of credible US intelligence and planning.
• Both US and Iranian positions are hardened, with parties appearing willing to endure ongoing pain rather than concede.
• The regional order is rapidly fragmenting: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is weakening, and new fault lines between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and broader Middle East are emerging. China leverages the moment but avoids direct entanglement.
• Ian Bremmer’s central message: The world is moving into a less stable, more transactional era—“Gzero”—where old alliances fade and realism is essential.

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Transcript

[Indiana University Narrator]

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[Bloomberg Host]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio News Watching the markets and as we see Iranian missiles targeting the United Arab Emirates, there's some concerns about that. Tehran warning that it was tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, Joe, this is once again, we see this back and forth and it feels like there's no progress towards an end.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

It feels pretty hairy. And this comes with this Operation Freedom, I guess it's being called. The president announced over the weekend where we would in fact not necessarily start escorting vessels through the strait, but stand by to help them. There's a question about whether anybody's going to take that opportunity. And it's where we start our conversation with Ian Bremmer. The force behind the Eurasia Group is with us live and in person here at the Milken Conference. It's great to see you and I hope that this set of meetings is going well for you. We would just love to talk about this very delicate moment that we are in and whether the president has the ability to open this corridor in the strait. And even if he does, could we move enough ships to make a difference?

[Ian Bremmer]

As of right now, he does not. And that is a big part of the problem. This is by far the biggest challenge we've seen since the cease fire was announced by President Trump a couple of weeks ago. We now have ships that are being fired on in the strait, one doing a quick U turn right after that. No one injured, to the best of our knowledge. And then we have what looks to be some interceptions. The UAE Ministry of Defense saying that they had intercepted some shots at them from Iran in the last couple of hours. That is clearly an escalation. A direct response by the Iranian government from Trump's announcement that he was going to have a humanitarian freedom operation to get some of these ships through. The Iranian perspective is we are prepared to talk about ending the blockade if you're going to let our ships through. Otherwise it's not happening. And the Iranians have the ability and the willingness to prevent Trump from making these moves. This is he's going to be pretty antagonized by this. There's no question in my mind who's got the cards?

[Bloomberg Host]

Who's got the winning hand right now? Or is there a winning hand? Because it doesn't seem like there's really Any progress? I mean, Iran understands its power by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. And if it lets that go, then what?

[Ian Bremmer]

Look, I wouldn't want to be the Iranian regime right now. Very clearly, 150 of their leaders have been killed. So to say they've got the winning hand in that environment. They're desperate, but they're also. Their regime is not going to change. More of them can be killed. A lot more Iranians have been killed and displaced, by the way, than anyone else in this war. Lebanon's the only other country that's even close. So, you know, it's not like the Americans are facing some existential threat, but this was a war the Americans chose to fight, that President Trump chose to fight with Israel. And it turns out that Iran's capacity to cause damage and pain to the Americans is massive. One place the Iranians have an advantage is an information advantage. They know what the polls are in the United States. They know what people inside the Trump administration are saying, and that they're not completely aligned on this. They know the Republicans don't like the war. The US has none of that transparency on what is being said at the top of the IRGC inside Iran, and that is a disadvantage for the United States.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, where's our intelligence on that?

[Ian Bremmer]

Well, there is intelligence, but again, you've killed most of the people you were talking to, Right. And the foreign minister, who is engaged and still engaged every day by text with Stephen Witkoff, they're still talking. And the sides aren't all that far apart on the nuclear issue. But he's not the guy calling the shots inside Tehran. The people calling the shots are not on television. They're not engaged publicly because they don't want to get killed. So, I mean, it is just a lot harder to get intelligence on what the Iranians are doing and what the Iranians are thinking. And I'll tell you, as many times as I've seen President Trump say, they better watch out or no more Mr. Nice Guy. When the supreme leaders, like kid and father and mother have already been assassinated in this war, no more Mr. Nice Guy doesn't hold a lot of credibility. Right. Most Iranians that we've spoken to in Tehran, that's nice.

[Bloomberg Host]

What's bad?

[Ian Bremmer]

They think that the war is going to restart imminently. They believe.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

There was a moment a couple of weeks ago, and you remember this, the markets were lit up with optimism because there was a thought that if we're arguing about duration, right. On stopping enrichment, then we've obviously made progress that we can somehow get to a yes, that. The fact that we were just talking about, is it five years, is it 20 years, is it indefinite? That optimism seems to have gone away.

[Ian Bremmer]

Yeah.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Was it ever real to begin with?

[Ian Bremmer]

It was real. It was real in the sense that there was a, there was serious engagement on what not only the duration of enrichment being stopped would be, but also the removal of the uranium stock.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

At one point, the President said there was a deal to hand it over.

[Ian Bremmer]

Yeah, yeah, but, but, and to be fair, also the Americans had given up on the ballistic missile, said that was a regional issue. So that's. If you're not going to have to resolve it, it makes it easier not even talking about Iranian support for proxies. So there you've got a deal. But in order to get to that deal, you have to open the strait. And the Iranians, if they're not going to toll anymore, they have to get something. So what are they getting? How are you paying them off? And there we did not see a deal. So ultimately, the Iranians have very little reason to open the strait, which is their one point, their singular point of global leverage, not just versus the US Unless they're going to see something that is better for them than the position they're presently in, they don't have that.

[Bloomberg Host]

All right, so we've been going back and forth. Obviously, the White House thought this was going to be just like Venezuela. It obviously is not. So do you see an end game, an outcome anytime soon? Because at this point, markets, when you look at oil prices and other factors, they are pricing this out through the end of the year. They've already decided this is nothing that's going to end soon. It hasn't ended soon already. So do you see, Ian, at ultimately some kind of endgame here?

[Ian Bremmer]

The thing that worries me, the reason I don't, I don't have an immediate yes for you, is that number one, Trump seems to believe that he's already going to lose midterms. He seems, he's already counseling patients. He's saying, I'm surprised that oil prices are below 100. You know, I think that they could be a lot higher. So he's willing to go longer and take that pain. Secondly, the Iranians themselves do seem like they are prepared to continue to hunker down, and they're capable of continuing to hunker down. So it is hard for me, even if you were to get to a deal, implementing that deal. So with the international arms inspect, the atomic inspectors, no one's engaged with them. So far, you'd need them on the ground. That would take time. Staging that with the money that the Iranians would have to get, that's a matter at best of another month or two after a deal is in place. So even if you came to yes, and we're not close to yes right now, it would still not be, oh, everything's going through the straight.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

I think it was. Darren woods last week said it would be at least two months from the strait being opened. Also that it would take that long for the energy market to rationalize itself and get the flows longer.

[Bloomberg Host]

If you look at Qatar, we're talking like three to five years.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

So go back to the first Pentagon briefing. Pete Hegseth, Dan Cain, it's the new duo. It's turned into a roadshow. The first questions were, was there a plan for the strait? And he mocked the reporters for asking that. He said, of course we had a plan. What was it?

[Ian Bremmer]

I think that when you believe that this is going to go over because you're killing the leadership, and so of course, they see that overwhelming US Military capacity that they're going to then want to deal.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Big assumption.

[Ian Bremmer]

You don't. It's a big assumption. You don't need that plan. The biggest problem that we have right now as Americans is, is that President Trump, in my view, is not getting an accurate picture of what's happening on the ground. And the reason for that is because people around him, and not just his domestic advisors, but international leaders, too, when they actually talk with him, they sugarcoat it. When they actually talk to him, they're like, sir, you're doing so well. And, you know, there's so much of this is going well. And maybe this is one little thing that if you could just do a little bit different. And they do that in part because he won't tolerate criticism, but also because they want to continue to have access to. And they know that if they really say in an unvarnished way, let's be real, and they want access because other people around them are competing to be the one in front. So if they're the one that's giving Trump the messages in life, they're not going to be there. No one would run a company that way. Right. I mean, you would downgrade that company if you were in Bloomberg. That's the way the United States government is presently being run in a war environment. And I just think that's horrible.

[Bloomberg Host]

I think about your concept, your book, Tzero, right? This world, everybody is kind of out for their own and we see it when it comes to raw materials, rare earths, commodities, all of a sudden in the markets, we're not talking as much about high tech. We're talking about raw materials, gold, steel. I mean, the world has changed. So does that make that even difficult, even more difficult to get some kind of resolution? And is this just our world, Ian, going forward?

[Ian Bremmer]

It makes it more difficult in the region because the most consequential geopolitical impact that has come, come from this war is that the Emiratis and the Saudis are in much more open hostility. Right? I mean, that's why the UAE decided to leave OPEC in the middle of wartime. It's not like the strait is suddenly open because they did that.

[Bloomberg Host]

That was a headline that crossed. And it was like, wait, what?

[Ian Bremmer]

It's wildly consequential because long term, the UAE is aligned with and supported by Israel and they do not want, cannot tolerate this Islamic Republic in Iran with this level of military capabilities. And they will continue to mow the grass, as the Israelis call it, with Israel going forward, if those capabilities exist. The Saudis are not a globe. These are the regional anchor that's focused on long term, big, cheap oil production at scale. They've got a much bigger market themselves. They're going to be the regional anchor. They're going to work with Pakistan, which provides nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia. They're going to do a deal with the Iranians that Pakistan and China will facilitate. They will find a way to engage. So the day after this war is over, it is a different Middle East. It is a different Gulf and the Gzero worse.

[Bloomberg Host]

Is it more stable?

[Ian Bremmer]

It's less stable. It's less stable. It certainly is more aligned with the individual interests of those countries. But you lack the multilateralism. The Gulf Cooperation Council is no longer fit for purpose. It could easily fall apart. And that, you know, historically, again, people, people that are looking, watching the show right now, historically, they would go to, they would invest in the Gulf and it wouldn't matter so much if they had their headquarters in Abu Dhabi or Saudi Arabia. That thing that will be massively consequential going forward. There will not be a singular Gulf strategy. You will need to understand how you are engaged with these different leaders, both very strong leaders and by the way, both generational leaders. So it's not like they're going away anytime soon. This is a very big deal.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

You mentioned China and the role that China is about to play could be significant. President Trump seems to think that there's. I won't call it a long game, but maybe a break glass situation with President Xi. If this is not solved by then, he goes to the meeting with Xi Jinping and they work this out together. Is, is he the linchpin to getting to Iran and getting this straight?

[Bloomberg Host]

Just pandas. It's got to be good.

[Ian Bremmer]

It's good to have pandas. I like pandas. And also the fact is that this summit is going forward even with the Strait still closed. And at the same time, the US has put in principle sanctions against Chinese teapot refineries that are not linked in to the broader financial system. And the Chinese in return have said, okay, if you actually do that, these companies will have the right to go after any American company doing business in China to receive the money that they've lost. Now, the fact that China is willing to hit back like that right before a summit with Trump shows that not only are they confident, they know that the Americans are not going to take moves against them. They know that they're not really under pressure to resolve anything. So I think the meeting will go well. I think they will show respect for each other. I think, you know, Xi Jinping will try to see if he can get Trump to say something useful on opposing Taiwan independence, which Xi wants. And no one around Trump wants to see. But, but one on one, Trump might say that. But this is not, this is not going to be. If you're, if you're waiting for a Xi Jinping summit to be a breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah, they want none of that.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Is the president not thinking that the way he's been talking recently makes you wonder.

[Ian Bremmer]

The way he's been talking recently makes you wonder about many things.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Okay.

[Ian Bremmer]

No, I mean, pick the tweet and tell me which bit you want to focus on and then we'll wonder if I only have that much time. No, but the point is he's frustrated.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah.

[Ian Bremmer]

He's angry. He wants an off ramp. He'd like to blame someone. It is his fault and he can't do anything about it. That's an unusual situation for him.

[Bloomberg Host]

And I've got to ask you, I was talking with an Iranian yesterday who's been in this country for a long time, but he said Iran really wants to be actually friends with the United States rather than China. And I think about that China, Iran, Russia alliance. That's an interesting one. Do you feel that that's possible?

[Ian Bremmer]

The Islamic Republic? No, of course not. Look, I think I was listening to NPR briefly this morning. I was listening to NPR briefly this morning. And it bothered me that after five minutes of this interview, which was wildly disconnected from what was happening on the ground, people that would listen to this person who used to be in the US Administration in the Treasury Department, I don't know the name, and now is in some think tank in Washington, but was not introduced as an Iranian American who just desperately wants the regime to collapse and will say anything in service of that. Now that is a legitimate perspective for a person to have, but the people listening don't necessarily know that that is the perspective of that person. And look, I would love to see the regime collapse. It's a brutal, horrible regime. It's killed lots of its own people. But what I want is not analysis, right? What I want is not what's going to happen.

[Bloomberg Host]

All I know is, man, just when I think it could get easier, it's not. It just gets more complicated. You create some sanity for us on this news. Rayner, thank you.

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