Bloomberg Talks – Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Kevin Warsh, Fed Rates, and Jerome Powell

Date: January 30, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Stephen Miran (Fed Governor, outgoing or current)
Topic: Fed succession, monetary policy debates, labor market & inflation views, Kevin Warsh’s nomination, consensus-building, and policy communication

Episode Overview

This episode features a candid conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran as he approaches the end of his official term and discusses ongoing Fed policy, labor market conditions, inflation measurement quirks, and the expected arrival of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Miran addresses public skepticism about the Fed's independence, analyzes the current economic data, and provides insight into how monetary decisions are made in a politically charged era.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Governor Miran’s Term & Fed Succession

(00:45–01:27)

• Miran’s official term as Fed Governor is ending, but he will stay on until a successor is confirmed, in line with standard Fed procedure.
• He has no knowledge of how long this process will take. Political uncertainty lingers due to potential Senate disputes.

2. Monetary Policy: Rate Cuts and the Rationale

(01:45–02:57)

• Miran details reasons for his recent dissent:

  • Previously advocated for a 50 basis point cut; now supports a 25 basis point cut due to:
    • Three cumulative rate cuts since September (totaling 75bp), closing the gap to neutrality.
    • Improved labor data, albeit with persistent overall concerns.
  • Advocates a steady pace (quarter-point per meeting), finding large cuts less necessary now.

  Notable Quote:

  “It’s no longer as imperative to move in 50-clips as it was. The other thing that happened is the labor market data did come in a little bit better... Indeed, the labor market has been on this gradual cooling trend for over two years now.” – Stephen Miran (01:56)

3. Labor Market: Broader Concerns Beyond Unemployment

(02:57–05:22)

• Disagrees that recent unemployment stability means enough labor market recovery.

• Cites additional evidence of slack:

  • Longer job searches, weakness among youth and college grads, more part-time work, declining employment-population ratio for younger workers.
  • Argues these are leading indicators of further softening, not reflected in headline unemployment rates.

  Notable Quote:

  “The unemployment rate, even though it’s the single most important indicator, is far from the total of information...there’s additional slack in the labor market beyond the unemployment rate alone.” – Stephen Miran (03:27)

4. Inflation: Measurement Quirks and Policy Responses

(03:27–05:57)

• Challenged the idea that inflation data should preclude rate cuts:

  • Points out “quirks” in measurement:
    • Portfolio management service fees (stock market gains feed through, artificially boosting inflation).
    • Housing inflation is derived from outdated rent data (reflecting 2022–2023 conditions, not current ones).
  • Argued real “market-based core ex-housing” inflation is at 2.2%, near target.

  Notable Quote:

  “We should not be asking people to give up their jobs because of quirks of how inflation is measured. That just to me is not a good idea for policy. It’s... a grotesque interpretation of stable prices.” – Stephen Miran (05:22)

5. Analyzing Sectoral Economic Health

(05:57–07:58)

• Discussion about small vs. large businesses and their uneven recovery.

• While Miran acknowledges value in examining sub-sectors for predictive insight, policy must stay oriented to “aggregate employment” and “aggregate inflation” as mandated by Congress.

  Notable Quote:

  “I don’t believe in targeting a specific sector of the economy... The statutes that Congress gave us instruct us to target the overall macro economy as a whole.” – Stephen Miran (06:24)

6. Kevin Warsh as Next Fed Chair: Independence, Credibility, and Policy Bias

(07:58–10:12)

• Miran strongly endorses Warsh’s qualifications and market respect but does not predict specific policy stances.

• Addresses Wall Street skepticism: Is Warsh’s dovishness real or politically motivated? Miran vouches for Warsh’s gravitas and ability to build consensus.

• Refutes the narrative that Fed appointments are simply “The President’s man.”

  Notable Quote:

  “He’s got enormous credibility... He’s going to do just a knockout job. What specific policies he supports... you got to ask him those questions.” – Stephen Miran (08:45)
  “The President has never, ever asked me to do anything on monetary policy... He tells the whole world his views... He’s never asked me to do anything.” – Stephen Miran (10:36)

7. Public Perception & Fed Independence

(10:12–12:36)

• Miran insists the Fed’s credibility is built not by politics but by “taking policy actions consistent with the data.”

• Emphasizes transparency in laying out his analysis and reasoning for the public to scrutinize.

  Notable Quote:

  “At the end of the day, the financial markets, the economy, respond to whether the policy is the appropriate policy or not... I try and be as transparent as I possibly can with my calculations.” – Stephen Miran (11:13)

8. Fiscal Policy and Miran’s Next Steps

(12:36–13:39)

• Declines comment on future fiscal policy or his next professional steps, insisting he remains focused on the Fed and that fiscal decisions are for the White House and Treasury.
• Light banter about career moves.

9. The Fed’s Balance Sheet: Shrinking and Long-Term Rates

(13:48–16:32)

• Miran is pro–shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, noting:

  • Regulatory reform (especially around Basel rules) is needed to avoid destabilizing banks’ need for reserves.
  • Passive reduction (“roll off”) is less likely to spike long rates than active sales.
  • As long as policy rates are above zero, the Fed can offset balance sheet effects by adjusting short rates.

  Notable Quote:

  “My perspective is that it is a good idea to shrink the balance sheet... But I also think that in order to shrink the balance sheet, we need to do some regulatory reform...” – Stephen Miran (14:36)

10. Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell’s Legacy

(16:32–17:19)

• Miran credits Powell’s leadership during the pandemic as helping avert a “second Great Depression.”

• Unclear what Powell’s exact next steps will be as Warsh takes over.

  Notable Quote:

  “I think that Chairman Powell, you know, deserves a thank you from all Americans... I really can’t tell you what he’s going to decide to do.” – Stephen Miran (16:53)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:56 | Miran | “It’s no longer as imperative to move in 50-clips as it was ... the labor market has been on this gradual cooling trend for over two years now.” | | 03:27 | Miran | “The unemployment rate, even though it’s the single most important indicator, is far from the total ... there’s additional slack in the labor market beyond the unemployment rate alone.” | | 05:22 | Miran | “We should not be asking people to give up their jobs because of quirks of how inflation is measured ... a grotesque interpretation of stable prices.” | | 06:24 | Miran | “I don’t believe in targeting a specific sector... Congress instructs us to target the overall macro economy as a whole.” | | 08:45 | Miran | “He’s got enormous credibility... He’s going to do just a knockout job. What specific policies he supports... you got to ask him those questions.” | | 10:36 | Miran | “The President has never, ever asked me to do anything on monetary policy ... He’s never asked me to do anything.” | | 11:13 | Miran | “At the end of the day, the financial markets, the economy, respond to whether the policy is the appropriate policy or not... I try and be as transparent as I possibly can.”| | 14:36 | Miran | “My perspective is that it is a good idea to shrink the balance sheet ... we need to do some regulatory reform...” | | 16:53 | Miran | “I think that Chairman Powell, you know, deserves a thank you from all Americans ... I really can’t tell you what he’s going to decide to do.” |

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:45–01:27: Miran discusses his extended Fed tenure and successor confirmation.
• 01:45–02:57: The rationale behind Miran’s recent dissent on rates.
• 03:27–05:57: In-depth takedown of inflation measurement and consequences for monetary policy.
• 07:58–10:12: Analysis of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and the politics of monetary appointments.
• 14:36–16:32: Views on shrinking the balance sheet and potential market impact.
• 16:53–17:19: Miran on Powell’s legacy and the leadership transition.

Episode Takeaway

Stephen Miran’s appearance offers a rare, transparent look at the internal reasoning of a senior Fed policymaker as the U.S. central bank stands at the cusp of leadership transition. Miran pushes against entrenched narratives about the labor market and inflation, insists on data-driven policy, and expresses both confidence in new leadership and respect for departing Chair Powell. He expertly navigates difficulty around Fed independence and offers sophisticated explanations of both the limits of economic aggregates and the interaction between monetary tools.

This episode is a must-hear for anyone seeking to understand not just the “what” but the “why” behind current and future Fed policy—delivered in frank, technically insightful, and often witty dialogue.