Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks - Fed's Stephen Miran Talks Cutting Rates, Iran

Date: March 4, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran

Overview

This episode centers on Federal Reserve policymaking in the face of geopolitical shocks, notably the recent unrest in the Middle East, ongoing questions around inflation, and prospects for interest rate cuts in 2026. Governor Stephen Miran offers a candid look at the Fed’s thinking on rate policy, the risks from oil shocks, labor market trends, AI-driven productivity changes, and developments in credit markets. His comments reveal a cautious but ongoing bias toward rate cuts, a nuanced view of headline versus core inflation, and skepticism regarding immediate policy shifts from recent shocks. The episode provides deep insight into current Fed debates as the global economy faces uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Policy Response to Middle East Geopolitical Shock

Timestamps: 00:53 - 01:47

• Geopolitical context: The conversation opens with the host referencing “the shock over the weekend” in the Middle East, prompting questions about the Fed’s response.
  • Stephen Miran (01:01):

    "At the moment I think it's too early to sort of have any firm views as a result of that. Oil's gone up a bit. But the bigger question is does oil stay up or does it come back down?...Sure, oil will feed into headline inflation, but the evidence that it feeds into core inflation in any sort of material way, unless there's a huge move in oil prices I think is quite limited."

• The Fed, he notes, traditionally looks through oil and headline shocks, focusing on core inflation and labor market conditions.

2. Comparing Past and Present Inflation Shocks

Timestamps: 01:31 - 02:52

• Host draws a parallel: with the 2022 post-pandemic period and the Russia-led energy shock.
• Miran distinguishes now from then:
  • “To focus on that, as you described a moment ago, to me, is fighting the last war. That was a unique circumstance.” (02:37)
• Structural differences: Unlike 2022, current monetary policy is “modestly restrictive” and fiscal policy isn’t highly expansionary.

3. Labor Market Trends & Rate Cut Timing

Timestamps: 02:52 - 04:19

• Concerns over a strong jobs report and its implications for rate cuts.
  • Miran (03:13):

    "We've got two years of a trend, two plus years of a trend of gradually weakening labor markets that sort of set in in 2020, in 2023. It's way too early to reject the notion that that trend continues based on one or two labor market reports."

• He points to slack in the labor market among young workers and those without college degrees, suggesting room for continued monetary policy support.

4. Inflation Expectations and Rate Cut Risks

Timestamps: 04:19 - 04:46

• Market fears: Some say rate cuts could stoke long-term inflation.
  • Miran (04:19):

    "If you saw evidence in inflation markets that markets were concerned about long run inflation expectations, that's the type of thing that would give me pause. But I don't see evidence of that so far."

• He differentiates between short-term moves (tied to oil) and stable long-term expectations.

5. Defining "Modestly Restrictive" and Neutral Rates

Timestamps: 04:46 - 05:06

• What does “modestly restrictive” mean?
  • Miran (04:53):

    "I think we're probably about a point above neutral now. And so my view is that we, we ought to start by getting back to...towards neutral."

• Current cuts are intended to return policy to neutral, not yet to become accommodative.

6. Risks of Below-Target Inflation

Timestamps: 05:10 - 06:25

• What would spark a move to accommodative policy?
  • Miran is watching a possible “sharp deceleration in housing,” stemming from how housing is measured and renewal versus new rents, and the behavior of goods prices.
  • Miran (06:17):

    "...If I end up being right about housing and we get a sharp deceleration in housing this year...then we're going to undershoot our target."

• But he’s not advocating preemptively pivoting to accommodation now.

7. “Wait and See” vs. Acting on Cuts

Timestamps: 06:25 - 08:15

• Asked if now is the time to pause or cut, Miran reaffirms acting in line with projections unless evidence compels a change.
  • Miran (06:38):

    "I think it's a moment to continue acting...in accordance with those projections until you get evidence that you have to change your projections."

• He prefers measured 25 basis point cuts as the policy rate approaches neutral, unless worsening conditions demand otherwise.

8. How to Measure Financial Conditions & Credit Market Risks

Timestamps: 08:53 - 11:39

• Recent fintech (Block) layoffs and “AI productivity bets” are viewed as part of normal, long-term trends in technology and job market shifts.
  • Miran (09:12):

    "This is how productivity gains and technology work. They allow you to produce more with fewer inputs...that frees those workers not necessarily into unemployment, but to do other work."

  • Miran (09:48):

    "It's too early to reject a tens of thousands of years trend of how technology works in the economy."

• Private credit “jitters”: Miran sees no immediate reason for policy response but points out that standard financial conditions indices may understate stress, as they often ignore private credit markets.
  • Miran (10:44):

    "One hypothesis of mine that I'm exploring is that those financial conditions indices aren't showing you what's going on in private credit...when we get these jitters in private credit markets and then say, oh, financial conditions are so loose, it's just because we decided not to look at the part of the financial markets that are tight."

• Caution about concluding conditions are loose given private market tightening.

9. Policy Uncertainty and Leadership Change at the Fed

Timestamps: 11:51 - 12:34

• Briefly asked about speaking with President Trump and the uncertainty over the next Fed Chair.
  • Miran (12:09):

    "I think we have a pretty good idea of who's going to be the next...Fed Chairman. We don't have a good idea yet of exactly when he will become the next Fed chairman. But I'm hopeful that we get that type of clarity soon."

• Describes the difficulty of planning with such uncertainty.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “To focus on that, as you described a moment ago, to me, is fighting the last war. That was a unique circumstance.”
  – Stephen Miran (02:37)
• “It's too early to reject a tens of thousands of years trend of how technology works in the economy.”
  – Stephen Miran (09:48)
• "One hypothesis of mine that I'm exploring is that those financial conditions indices aren't showing you what's going on in private credit..."
  – Stephen Miran (10:44)
• “I think it's a moment to continue acting...until you get evidence that you have to change your projections.”
  – Stephen Miran (06:38)
• “It makes it difficult to plan.”
  – Stephen Miran, on the uncertainty of his tenure (12:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:53 – 01:47: Responding to the Middle East shock and its impact on inflation.
• 01:31 – 02:52: Comparing current policy environment to 2022.
• 02:52 – 04:19: Labor market data and implications for rate cuts.
• 04:19 – 04:46: Inflation expectations and rate cut risks.
• 04:46 – 05:06: Defining “modestly restrictive” policy and what constitutes neutral.
• 05:10 – 06:25: Risks of below-target inflation and triggers for more accommodation.
• 06:25 – 08:15: “Wait and see” vs. continued action on cuts; rate cut cadence.
• 08:53 – 11:39: AI-driven productivity, job shifts, and financial conditions measurements.
• 11:51 – 12:34: Leadership transition and policy uncertainty at the Fed.

Tone & Takeaways

Governor Stephen Miran’s approach continues to be pragmatic, evidence-driven, and unhurried in the face of noisy data and geopolitical shocks. He emphasizes core inflation and labor market indicators over headline volatility, voices faith in longstanding economic dynamics, and is cautious about reading too much into short-term events—whether in jobs numbers, oil, technology news, or credit markets. Clarity and steady adjustment, rather than sudden moves, remain his policy preference.